Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine

Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: Smirker on December 14, 2024, 11:59:35 PM

Title: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on December 14, 2024, 11:59:35 PM
Currently we're 3 points off 4th and 2 points off 5th.

Do you think we'll do it?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on December 15, 2024, 12:09:58 AM
If we play like we have for the last 6 weeks or so we won’t. We are both defensively flimsy and incoherent in attack, unless we make at least one of those a strength it’s not going to happen. Fingers crossed we’ll sort it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on December 15, 2024, 12:29:57 AM
Depends 100% what we do in January .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on December 15, 2024, 01:01:49 AM
Only if we win it this season. I'll settle for that tbh.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on December 15, 2024, 02:30:54 AM
Dunno, most teams are pretty inconsistent this season. Let's do a Norwich '93 for the craic and finish 3rd with a negative goal difference.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on December 15, 2024, 02:38:48 AM
I think we need to be not cut off by the time the transfer window closes and just hope that we pull something out the bag. It is so tight though that I think 5th will be up for grabs for a few teams.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Risso on December 15, 2024, 07:19:04 AM
Not a chance
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on December 15, 2024, 07:21:53 AM
No way, this version of Villa has mid table written all over it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on December 15, 2024, 07:43:41 AM
Depends on what we can do in January transfer wise.  Maybe we should just go for it and take the points deductions like other clubs have. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on December 15, 2024, 07:55:03 AM
It doesn't seem like it now but any sort of consistency and 5th is up for grabs.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on December 15, 2024, 08:01:12 AM
I don’t expect the league to remain as inconsistent.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 15, 2024, 08:07:41 AM
If we sign no one in January  no chance.

If we are smart in January  and make some smart signings without breaking the bank we can do. For example get luiz back on loan, recall illing jr or enzo to get bodies back to add extra competition

And bloody sign a right back. Then yeah we have a shot
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on December 15, 2024, 08:07:44 AM
Could go either way. I don’t think we’re as crap as our form since the start of November suggests. I do think the squad is starting to creak from having 2 seasons of playing way more games than it’s capable of, at least at the consistently high level that we’ve needed to this season.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 15, 2024, 08:33:22 AM
Could go either way. I don’t think we’re as crap as our form since the start of November suggests. I do think the squad is starting to creak from having 2 seasons of playing way more games than it’s capable of, at least at the consistently high level that we’ve needed to this season.

The problem is even before we kicked a ball in CL we did not look that convincing. Played pretty well vs west ham (but they have been hopeless most season) played well at arsenal  but again missed loads of chances and lost. Followed by straping wins against leicester and Everton. Last season we were blowing teams apart.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villafirst on December 15, 2024, 08:39:07 AM
I can't see a top four finish. This pedestrian football has been sussed by other teams. We played with more tempo in Leipzig but reverted back last night. We sat so deep in the last ten minutes at Forest and they bullied Villa. Trying possession football on the edge of our box was ridiculous and led to their winning goal.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on December 15, 2024, 08:57:58 AM
Definitely not in the top four.

If the second half of the season is any better than the first half, then we'll finish fifth.

If it isn't, we won't.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on December 15, 2024, 09:11:19 AM
Can’t see it - Byern aside - we don’t look capable of beating the clubs in the top 8. 

We weakened our squad in the summer, and have a few key players out of form, combined with a gifting goals every game.  That’s not a recipe for 4th.

Duran has covered a lot of sins for the club.  I think we’ll improve but we a shadow of the team we were last season. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ozzjim on December 15, 2024, 09:13:47 AM
Not a chance. We need to finish 5th, 6th or 9th this season. We don't need conference league next season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on December 15, 2024, 09:14:20 AM
In Emery's first 18 months-two years the mentality was so strong. We saw out so many games with a one goal winning margin. Villa Park was an absolute fortress this time 12 months ago. Not so much now.

I am a bit shocked at how fragile we have looked since the Bournemouth game. If we don't sort that it's looking like we will struggle for the top 7 never mind top 4.

We have had some very disappointing results against teams we should be beating.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rudy65 on December 15, 2024, 09:23:43 AM
8th
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bobby Boy on December 15, 2024, 09:27:34 AM
8th

Yeah, I'd say that sounds about right.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dante Lavelli on December 15, 2024, 09:35:26 AM
I suppose on the positive side, we were running on empty at the end of last season whereas we should have more depth this time. Just need to get more players back to form. 

I still think we will fall short but Europa League would still be a good season. The conference league looks so weak it it could be a hinderance.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: MillerBall on December 15, 2024, 09:36:42 AM
I  don't think the squad is remotely strong enough to win a top 4th or 5th place in the Premiership this season. Emery has worked wonders with the players he has but they have now " hit the wall."
This is a special season with us having Champions League football but the extra games are taking their toll and our slower paced; try and conserve energy football until currently working.
All is not lost and we make get Eùropa League football next season (not at Champions League ticket prices please), but we need to make the most of this seasons Champions League whilst we are in it.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SaddVillan on December 15, 2024, 10:35:09 AM
The Prem this season seems like a Pass the Parcel.

Everybody keeps winning and losing, going up a few places and then down again (or vice versa) and when the music pauses everybody has swapped places.

It's really difficult to say who will end up where when the music finally stops on May 25th next year.

Just hope we're in one of the winning positions.

As long as we are, then all will be forgiven?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on December 15, 2024, 10:44:55 AM
I suppose on the positive side, we were running on empty at the end of last season whereas we should have more depth this time. Just need to get more players back to form. 

I still think we will fall short but Europa League would still be a good season. The conference league looks so weak it it could be a hinderance.
But we don’t have more depth?  We look knackered now - and this time last season we were flying
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SaddVillan on December 15, 2024, 11:10:05 AM
I think this season has shown how much we need to improve our ability to manage games   - run the clock down and "rest in possession" as Unai says.

One thing we're definitely struggling with is is the passive refereeing in the Prem compared to the almost non-contact approach in the ECL. It would be interesting to see how many times we get "fouled" in the Prem after an ECL game  - are the players forgetting to recalibrate the physicality that's allowed domestically and suffering as a result?

If yesterday's game had been to the same standard as Wednesday's; we'd definitely have had a penalty and their winner would have been disallowed for the foul on Cash.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on December 15, 2024, 11:38:03 AM
Not a chance. We need to finish 5th, 6th or 9th this season. We don't need conference league next season.

Why? We did alright last time we were in it. It's probably our most realistic chance of winning a trophy before I die.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on December 15, 2024, 11:38:12 AM
We have a very small chance if England gets the extra place. I think we’ll finish about 8th though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Jon Crofts on December 15, 2024, 02:29:23 PM
I'd rather we chased a competition we can actually win, League Cup, FA Cup or one of the Europa's, we've absolutely zero chance of winning the UCL, it's just pure vanity.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on December 15, 2024, 02:48:33 PM
Nonsense. Any Premier League side that qualifies has a chance.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: JUAN PABLO on December 15, 2024, 02:56:02 PM
Depends if we get a RB and RW in but I can see 5th . 

1 liverpool
2  chelsea
3 man city
4 arsenal
5 villa 

wont be newcastle , brighton nor spurs
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dorsetvillian on December 15, 2024, 03:05:26 PM
6th for me, unless Mings can come in and make the difference to the defence and maybe a RB signing in Jan. If we had won 1-0 yesterday after an away Champions League game with minimum fuss or effort everyone would say a Uni Master Class. It's very small margins...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on December 15, 2024, 03:10:07 PM
The Prem this season seems like a Pass the Parcel.

Everybody keeps winning and losing, going up a few places and then down again (or vice versa) and when the music pauses everybody has swapped places.

It's really difficult to say who will end up where when the music finally stops on May 25th next year.

Just hope we're in one of the winning positions.

As long as we are, then all will be forgiven?

Basically what I think for 5th placed. We'll be in that mix.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on December 15, 2024, 03:15:23 PM
6th might be enough I think... if Man City, Man U or Tottenham finish exactly 5th and win a European trophy, and England gets the bonus place.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on December 15, 2024, 04:03:35 PM
6th might be enough I think... if Man City, Man U or Tottenham finish exactly 5th and win a European trophy, and England gets the bonus place.

None of them are doing that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Pete3206 on December 15, 2024, 04:28:35 PM
No

6th, 7th or 8th
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: darren woolley on December 15, 2024, 05:07:15 PM
I can see us getting top six.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on December 15, 2024, 05:19:46 PM
We need to sort the right hand side out in Jan and up our tempo in games. Otherwise, 8th-10th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chap on December 15, 2024, 05:22:00 PM
Why not, swap last seasons early form to after new year and we’d be in with a shot. The league is very unpredictable this year.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on December 15, 2024, 05:25:59 PM
We’ll be in the mix for 5th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Steve67 on December 15, 2024, 05:26:53 PM
No, we won't qualify for the CL.  Whilst I appreciate that the League Cup only gets you the EUFA tournament, I am still annoyed that we threw that.  No guarantee that we'd win it but still.   I wouldn't mind another crack at the Conference League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 15, 2024, 07:37:21 PM
Spurs and united winning today  is not helping. Im pretty sure both will finish above us the way we are playing.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on December 15, 2024, 07:54:28 PM
Spurs and united winning today  is not helping. Im pretty sure both will finish above us the way we are playing.

As sure as you were about Spurs finishing above us last season?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 15, 2024, 08:04:04 PM
Spurs and united winning today  is not helping. Im pretty sure both will finish above us the way we are playing.

As sure as you were about Spurs finishing above us last season?

We finished above them by 2 points.  Not exactly very convincing was it ? So i wasnt far off and last season we were playing alot better than this year. Sueely you can accept that?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on December 15, 2024, 08:04:56 PM
Seeing as we're winning it this season, yes, we will do.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on December 15, 2024, 08:08:32 PM
Seeing as we're winning it this season, yes, we will do.
If we get to say the QF's and are say upper mid table (8/9th) in the Prem, then there will probably be an emphasis shift towards the ECL . Going to be very interesting how this pans out .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on December 15, 2024, 08:10:19 PM
Spurs and united winning today  is not helping. Im pretty sure both will finish above us the way we are playing.

As sure as you were about Spurs finishing above us last season?

We finished above them by 2 points.  Not exactly very convincing was it ? So i wasnt far off and last season we were playing alot better than this year. Sueely you can accept that?

You predict doom and gloom at every turn and whoever's finishing above us changes depending on who's scored most recently so your predictions mean zip.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on December 15, 2024, 08:13:32 PM
Yes, teams who have performed worse than us so far this season are definitely likely to finish above us at the end.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SaddVillan on December 15, 2024, 08:14:51 PM
2 points a game for the rest of the season will put us on 69 points.

4th place over the last 5 seasons:

2023-24  68 Villa
2022-23  71 Toon
2021-22  71 Spurs
2020-21  67 Chelsea
2019-20  66 Chelsea

5th place over the same period:

2023-24  66 Spurs
2022-23  67 Liverpool
2021-22  69 Arsenal
2020-21  66 Leicester
2019-20  62 Leicester

The Holy Grail, last 8 in the ECL and 5th in the Prem will do for me.

That should get us into the ECL again if our coefficients improves.

Putting tribal rivalry and envy aside, we need 'The Mighty Reds YNWA', Arse and Citeh to do well at the expense of  clubs from Germany, Spain and Italy.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on December 15, 2024, 08:21:31 PM
Non chance. Concede 2 goals nearly every game it feels.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on December 15, 2024, 08:23:02 PM
Non chance. Concede 2 goals nearly every game it feels.
If Mings / Konsa is reinstated there is a chance
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on December 15, 2024, 08:27:26 PM
Non chance. Concede 2 goals nearly every game it feels.

We do, just ask Risso.

Anyway, if we keep losing we won't, keep winning we will, and somewhere in the middle (and form so far this season says we're very close) means we have a chance.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on December 15, 2024, 08:27:44 PM
Spurs and united winning today  is not helping. Im pretty sure both will finish above us the way we are playing.

As sure as you were about Spurs finishing above us last season?

We finished above them by 2 points.  Not exactly very convincing was it ? So i wasnt far off and last season we were playing alot better than this year. Sueely you can accept that?

Yet you're making predictions about Man United and Spurs - two sides even more unpredictable than us - finishing above us on one match?

Did you even see that Man City Man United game?

Both sides were utterly dire.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on December 15, 2024, 08:30:59 PM
Spurs and united winning today  is not helping. Im pretty sure both will finish above us the way we are playing.

As sure as you were about Spurs finishing above us last season?

We finished above them by 2 points.  Not exactly very convincing was it ? So i wasnt far off and last season we were playing alot better than this year. Sueely you can accept that?

I can accept you were wrong, absolutely.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 15, 2024, 08:39:07 PM
Spurs and united winning today  is not helping. Im pretty sure both will finish above us the way we are playing.

As sure as you were about Spurs finishing above us last season?

We finished above them by 2 points.  Not exactly very convincing was it ? So i wasnt far off and last season we were playing alot better than this year. Sueely you can accept that?

I can accept you were wrong, absolutely.

As usual avoid the question not suprising  a man scared to answer a simple question
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on December 15, 2024, 08:44:36 PM
I've read some utter bollocks on here in my time but finishing above another club "not very convincingly" is rght up there with the best.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on December 15, 2024, 08:46:52 PM
2 points a game for the rest of the season will put us on 69 points.

4th place over the last 5 seasons:

2023-24  68 Villa
2022-23  71 Toon
2021-22  71 Spurs
2020-21  67 Chelsea
2019-20  66 Chelsea

5th place over the same period:

2023-24  66 Spurs
2022-23  67 Liverpool
2021-22  69 Arsenal
2020-21  66 Leicester
2019-20  62 Leicester

The Holy Grail, last 8 in the ECL and 5th in the Prem will do for me.

That should get us into the ECL again if our coefficients improves.

Putting tribal rivalry and envy aside, we need 'The Mighty Reds YNWA', Arse and Citeh to do well at the expense of  clubs from Germany, Spain and Italy.

That's a really shit Holy Grail. It'd be almost just, like, an old cup.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SaddVillan on December 15, 2024, 08:49:47 PM
The Prem so far this season seems like the old Pass the Parcel party game

Everybody keeps winning and losing, going up a few places and then down again (or vice versa).

It's anybody's guess as to who will end up where when the music finally stops on May 25th next year ... ... ...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SaddVillan on December 15, 2024, 08:52:22 PM
2 points a game for the rest of the season will put us on 69 points.

4th place over the last 5 seasons:

2023-24  68 Villa
2022-23  71 Toon
2021-22  71 Spurs
2020-21  67 Chelsea
2019-20  66 Chelsea

5th place over the same period:

2023-24  66 Spurs
2022-23  67 Liverpool
2021-22  69 Arsenal
2020-21  66 Leicester
2019-20  62 Leicester

The Holy Grail, last 8 in the ECL and 5th in the Prem will do for me.

That should get us into the ECL again if our coefficients improves.

Putting tribal rivalry and envy aside, we need 'The Mighty Reds YNWA', Arse and Citeh to do well at the expense of  clubs from Germany, Spain and Italy.

That's a really shit Holy Grail. It'd be almost just, like, an old cup.

66 years and counting. The only one I haven't seen us win.

YET!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 15, 2024, 08:52:33 PM
Laughable
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on December 15, 2024, 08:54:58 PM
snip

The Holy Grail, last 8 in the ECL and 5th in the Prem will do for me.

That should get us into the ECL again if our coefficients improves.

snip

That's a really shit Holy Grail. It'd be almost just, like, an old cup.

66 years and counting. The only one I haven't seen us win.

YET!

I genuinely misread you and thought you meant that last eight in the CL and fifth in the league was the 'Holy Grail'! Apologies.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 15, 2024, 09:04:06 PM
Spurs and united winning today  is not helping. Im pretty sure both will finish above us the way we are playing.

As sure as you were about Spurs finishing above us last season?

We finished above them by 2 points.  Not exactly very convincing was it ? So i wasnt far off and last season we were playing alot better than this year. Sueely you can accept that?

You predict doom and gloom at every turn and whoever's finishing above us changes depending on who's scored most recently so your predictions mean zip.

Not really bothered or interested if you think "my predictions mean zip" to you i can make a prediction as positive or negative as i like. I am allowed to make a prediction and i think spurs and manure are likely to finosh above us if we sign no one in January

You need to accept that people are allowed to have differing opinions to you even if they are not positive. And your wrong by the way its not always doom and gloom - guess you missed all the posts after brentford
 Saints and Leizpig?

Selective memory 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on December 15, 2024, 09:08:28 PM
Spurs and united winning today  is not helping. Im pretty sure both will finish above us the way we are playing.

As sure as you were about Spurs finishing above us last season?

We finished above them by 2 points.  Not exactly very convincing was it ? So i wasnt far off and last season we were playing alot better than this year. Sueely you can accept that?

I can accept you were wrong, absolutely.

As usual avoid the question not suprising  a man scared to answer a simple question

I’m terrified, but I’ll answer your nonsensical questions now.

We convincingly finished above them by doing the only thing you need to finish above them, getting more points.

You were far off. You said they would finish above us, we finished above them. You couldn’t have been further off in that regard.

We were playing better last season. So were they. So what?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 15, 2024, 09:16:20 PM
Spurs and united winning today  is not helping. Im pretty sure both will finish above us the way we are playing.

As sure as you were about Spurs finishing above us last season?

We finished above them by 2 points.  Not exactly very convincing was it ? So i wasnt far off and last season we were playing alot better than this year. Sueely you can accept that?

I can accept you were wrong, absolutely.

As usual avoid the question not suprising  a man scared to answer a simple question

I’m terrified, but I’ll answer your nonsensical questions now.

We convincingly finished above them by doing the only thing you need to finish above them, getting more points.

You were far off. You said they would finish above us, we finished above them. You couldn’t have been further off in that regard.

We were playing better last season. So were they. So what?

No need to cry about the question i posed to you it was a simple question all you had to do was simply  answer it . A fair question but because i asked you answer it is  now a "nonsensical question". Hilarous

So i was far off because i predicted spurs would finish above us we finished 4th and they finished 5th now thats far off?  😂😂😂 your making out as of spurs finished 19th. Goodness me

Now speaking  in your language  whats nonsensical your last sentence  you think its not important that we are not playing as good as last season? You cant see what the problem with that is? Really?

We are playing worse, have less points and lower in the table than this stage last season. Thats not negative  thats facts. I hope that answers your question.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on December 15, 2024, 09:39:14 PM
I’m going to do everyone a favour by not quoting you, but you’re absolutely mad.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on December 15, 2024, 09:45:31 PM
How we're still sixth I'll never know. But we are and we need to take advantage of our good fortune immediately, or we'll be bottom half within a fortnight.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on December 15, 2024, 10:16:28 PM
Next 3 games look winnable .
C115y in a real mess
Arabia on BD what could go wrong
BhA more jeckle and Hyde than us and we are their bogey team
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SaddVillan on December 15, 2024, 10:53:55 PM
snip

The Holy Grail, last 8 in the ECL and 5th in the Prem will do for me.

That should get us into the ECL again if our coefficients improves.

snip

That's a really shit Holy Grail. It'd be almost just, like, an old cup.

66 years and counting. The only one I haven't seen us win.

YET!

I genuinely misread you and thought you meant that last eight in the CL and fifth in the league was the 'Holy Grail'! Apologies.

No worries SE
Easy mistake.

For fans of a certain age (like me) not winning it becomes more of a disappointment as each season ticks by.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on December 15, 2024, 11:55:38 PM
It's just not a possibility in my mind. I can see us winning the CL, but not that one.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Accent Guy on December 16, 2024, 01:32:49 AM
I still think top 8 as I have all season. It MAY be enough for Conference League but personally I'd rather miss out on that and rebuild in the summer.

It's such a shame that we are going to throw the FA Cup as that would have been our one chance at a successful season. Ah well.

8th place finish and a big summer clear out.

Champions League? Not a chance. Not a fucking hope hope in hell.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rory on December 16, 2024, 01:33:50 AM
I still think top 8 as I have all season. It MAY be enough for Conference League but personally I'd rather miss out on that and rebuild in the summer.

It's such a shame that we are going to throw the FA Cup as that would have been our one chance at a successful season. Ah well.

8th place finish and a big summer clear out.

Champions League? Not a chance. Not a fucking hope hope in hell.

With all due respect, you've already said, mate. We remember.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on December 16, 2024, 02:00:55 AM
Yeah, but we all enjoy being told a team currently in 6th has 'no chance' of finishing 5th several times, don't we?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rory on December 16, 2024, 02:16:23 AM
Yeah, but we all enjoy being told a team currently in 6th has 'no chance' of finishing 5th several times, don't we?

I don't know, I don't like to get into arguments on here (which is why I haven't pointed out in off-topic that Lennon was way better than McCartney) but once you've read something 20 times it kind of feels like 'yeah, you already have enough to quote come May when, if we do finish 8th, you were shown to be correct. That's enough.'
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on December 16, 2024, 02:20:24 AM
A bit scary looking at the goal difference between us and Spurs already - they're better off by 18! Can't see us clawing that back, even with over half the games to play so we'll need to finish a point ahead of them (two ahead currently).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on December 16, 2024, 02:25:48 AM
Yeah, but we all enjoy being told a team currently in 6th has 'no chance' of finishing 5th several times, don't we?

I don't know, I don't like to get into arguments on here (which is why I haven't pointed out in off-topic that Lennon was way better than McCartney) but once you've read something 20 times it kind of feels like 'yeah, you already have enough to quote come May when, if we do finish 8th, you were shown to be correct. That's enough.'

All I know is that whenever I have heard McCartney sing live over the last 20 years, I really, really want him to stop. I mean he died in a crash anyway, but this one, just retire please mate.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on December 16, 2024, 02:28:32 AM
A bit scary looking at the goal difference between us and Spurs already - they're better off by 18! Can't see us clawing that back, even with over half the games to play so we'll need to finish a point ahead of them at worst.

We're two points clear of them. They'd swap, given the choice.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rory on December 16, 2024, 02:48:43 AM
Yeah, but we all enjoy being told a team currently in 6th has 'no chance' of finishing 5th several times, don't we?

I don't know, I don't like to get into arguments on here (which is why I haven't pointed out in off-topic that Lennon was way better than McCartney) but once you've read something 20 times it kind of feels like 'yeah, you already have enough to quote come May when, if we do finish 8th, you were shown to be correct. That's enough.'

All I know is that whenever I have heard McCartney sing live over the last 20 years, I really, really want him to stop. I mean he died in a crash anyway, but this one, just retire please mate.

Some things are rather like fighting back the tide.

Most of what McCartney wrote sounds pretty fucking naff to me, but then I was 20ish before I realised there are people out there who genuinely like Michael Jackson and non-gay men who have gone to see musicals unironically.

So I'm the one who is out of touch. Which is fine by me.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on December 17, 2024, 12:10:11 PM
Current Top 4/5 percentages per Football Rankings. https://x.com/FootRankings/status/1868990023842120153
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on December 17, 2024, 12:17:49 PM
To save a Twitter click:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ge_7h_0XEAA_QgC?format=jpg)

Feels like the sort of thing that will change every couple of results. If Amorim is anything close to what he's cracked up to be and they put a run together then I'd imagine they'll do it, but all those teams are capable of sticking three wins together then following them with three defeats.

If we have a second half of the season like 22-23, then we'll probably be fine. If we have a second half of the season lke 23-24 then we won't.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on December 17, 2024, 12:25:02 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ge_7h_0XEAA_QgC?format=jpg)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: London Villan on December 17, 2024, 12:35:53 PM
We are in the mix still, while being very inconsistent. The likes of Forest, Brentford and Bournemouth are playing at their full potential at the moment - if we can sort ourselves out, then we have more than enough to finish 5th...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on December 17, 2024, 01:21:40 PM
I reckon Bournemouth will make the Champions League and, while I'm doing crazy predictions, Chelsea will win the league.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: kippaxvilla2 on December 17, 2024, 02:04:51 PM
As the match thread is gone.  I am still utterly pissed off about Saturday and it is indicative of our form this season.  Too inconsistent and as weak as pee so I think we will be top 10.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on December 22, 2024, 08:19:14 AM
Is everyone who convinced themselves after Forest that we're definitely finishing somewhere between 7th and 10th still sure that top five is impossible?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Steve67 on December 22, 2024, 08:29:39 AM
Is everyone who convinced themselves after Forest that we're definitely finishing somewhere between 7th and 10th still sure that top five is impossible?

After last week, I would have been happy with 5th to 7th and that’s what I was thinking. I won’t get carried away thinking we’ve cracked it just yet. However, beat a quickly improving Newcastle and I might change my mind.  Fair point made Dave but we have to find that consistency and also stop giving daft goals away.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on December 22, 2024, 08:49:30 AM
Is everyone who convinced themselves after Forest that we're definitely finishing somewhere between 7th and 10th still sure that top five is impossible?
After yesterday? No. We were that good. Do I think we will definitely achieve it? No.
But that was the first time I have seen us play like the Winter of 2023 vintage.
One thought I had as the game continued, was who can we bring on without weakening the team?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 22, 2024, 09:07:10 AM
Is everyone who convinced themselves after Forest that we're definitely finishing somewhere between 7th and 10th still sure that top five is impossible?

Ask me in 5 games time. Its all good beating city but then if we go lose the next 2 or 3 i would say its unlikley.

We need to build up runs now and pick up more points away from home. Home we are doing pretty well as only lost our first  home game vs arsenal in the league.

We also need to keep clean sheets. Yesterday should have been one but another defensive error prevents that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on December 22, 2024, 09:07:52 AM
Is everyone who convinced themselves after Forest that we're definitely finishing somewhere between 7th and 10th still sure that top five is impossible?
After yesterday? No. We were that good. Do I think we will definitely achieve it? No.
But that was the first time I have seen us play like the Winter of 2023 vintage.
One thought I had as the game continued, was who can we bring on without weakening the team?

Watkins, Bailey, Mings, Ramsey, Maatsen.

And in the right circumstances Barkley, Carlos and Buendia.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 22, 2024, 09:10:54 AM
Is everyone who convinced themselves after Forest that we're definitely finishing somewhere between 7th and 10th still sure that top five is impossible?
After yesterday? No. We were that good. Do I think we will definitely achieve it? No.
But that was the first time I have seen us play like the Winter of 2023 vintage.
One thought I had as the game continued, was who can we bring on without weakening the team?

Watkins, Bailey, Mings, Ramsey, Maatsen.

And in the right circumstances Barkley, Carlos and Buendia.

Not sure about buendia mate. He does not look like at anywhere near the levels. Carlos ill happily sell if a good offer  comes in. Barkley i agree with!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Baldy on December 22, 2024, 10:53:39 AM
For the first time since Luiz left, we have the combination that Unai had planned on. Onana and Kamara got off to a fantastic start and enabled players like Rogers and Youri to play their natural and preferred game.

If that combination can keep free from injury and with the great options we have on the bench, I think we are well capable of getting in the top four.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tony Daleys Shorts on December 22, 2024, 11:15:34 AM
Hopefully with the midfield balance now looking how we’d all like it we’ll see an up turn in performances.

Be fantastic if we can do last season in reverse, and go on a great run second half of the season. Should that happen 4th is not just possible but probable.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 22, 2024, 01:03:44 PM
Hopefully with the midfield balance now looking how we’d all like it we’ll see an up turn in performances.

Be fantastic if we can do last season in reverse, and go on a great run second half of the season. Should that happen 4th is not just possible but probable.

If that happened we will comfortably be finishing in top four
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on December 22, 2024, 01:19:22 PM
Could do with Forest falling away , their next 3 games look very winnable
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on December 22, 2024, 01:27:37 PM
If we could consistently reach the heights of yesterday performance, I'd back us to have a good go at winning the bloody thing.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on December 22, 2024, 05:16:07 PM
Is everyone who convinced themselves after Forest that we're definitely finishing somewhere between 7th and 10th still sure that top five is impossible?
After yesterday? No. We were that good. Do I think we will definitely achieve it? No.
But that was the first time I have seen us play like the Winter of 2023 vintage.
One thought I had as the game continued, was who can we bring on without weakening the team?

Watkins, Bailey, Mings, Ramsey, Maatsen.

And in the right circumstances Barkley, Carlos and Buendia.
Watkins not as good as Duran, Ramsey not for 2 seasons now, Carlos is at best unconvincing, last seasons Bailey yes this seasons no. Buendia nope. Mings to see out a game yes , Barkley no where near that Midfield.
Maatsen can do a job but there is a reason why he isn’t starting.
So my point is that it’s difficult to see how we don’t weaken the team from the bench.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: garyellis on December 22, 2024, 05:51:41 PM
Top three we probably will not be able to catch
Forest and Bournemouth we will finish above so it is what’s below us that will be key
Our match day squad yesterday can do it but it will depend how the rest can step up plus a couple of well thought out reinforcements next month.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on December 22, 2024, 07:30:54 PM
Yes
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on December 22, 2024, 07:33:08 PM
If we could consistently reach the heights of yesterday performance, I'd back us to have a good go at winning the bloody thing.

Indeed, that has to be the watermark (accepting there will be tactical tweaks here and there)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on December 22, 2024, 09:03:48 PM
Is everyone who convinced themselves after Forest that we're definitely finishing somewhere between 7th and 10th still sure that top five is impossible?
After yesterday? No. We were that good. Do I think we will definitely achieve it? No.
But that was the first time I have seen us play like the Winter of 2023 vintage.
One thought I had as the game continued, was who can we bring on without weakening the team?

Watkins, Bailey, Mings, Ramsey, Maatsen.

And in the right circumstances Barkley, Carlos and Buendia.
Watkins not as good as Duran, Ramsey not for 2 seasons now, Carlos is at best unconvincing, last seasons Bailey yes this seasons no. Buendia nope. Mings to see out a game yes , Barkley no where near that Midfield.
Maatsen can do a job but there is a reason why he isn’t starting.
So my point is that it’s difficult to see how we don’t weaken the team from the bench.

Now name any team in the world that wouldn’t be weakened by playing their less good players.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 22, 2024, 09:30:21 PM
Is everyone who convinced themselves after Forest that we're definitely finishing somewhere between 7th and 10th still sure that top five is impossible?
After yesterday? No. We were that good. Do I think we will definitely achieve it? No.
But that was the first time I have seen us play like the Winter of 2023 vintage.
One thought I had as the game continued, was who can we bring on without weakening the team?

Watkins, Bailey, Mings, Ramsey, Maatsen.

And in the right circumstances Barkley, Carlos and Buendia.
Watkins not as good as Duran, Ramsey not for 2 seasons now, Carlos is at best unconvincing, last seasons Bailey yes this seasons no. Buendia nope. Mings to see out a game yes , Barkley no where near that Midfield.
Maatsen can do a job but there is a reason why he isn’t starting.
So my point is that it’s difficult to see how we don’t weaken the team from the bench.

Now name any team in the world that wouldn’t be weakened by playing their less good players.

Easy liverpool. They can play non 1st teamers or as you say "less good players" and still batter most teams in the league
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on December 22, 2024, 09:33:55 PM
You don’t think bringing Nunez on for Diaz weakens them? Or playing Gomez instead of Konaté?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on December 22, 2024, 09:40:33 PM
Or Chiesa for Salah
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 22, 2024, 09:41:41 PM
You don’t think bringing Nunez on for Diaz weakens them? Or playing Gomez instead of Konaté?

Gomez has played alot recently  since  konates injury and they have still won their games. Nunez maybe not but what about jota? Id say he does.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on December 22, 2024, 09:47:26 PM
Or Chiesa for Salah

Yep, I would argue you only take Salah out of that side and Liverpool are massively weakened. He is responsible for 2/3rds of their goals this season and those are the ones credited. Some like saves or blocked shots that someone else finishes doesn't get the assist attributed.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on December 22, 2024, 09:48:57 PM
You’d say he does what? Weakens them? Yeah, me too. Not massively, because he’s really good, but he obviously does, otherwise he’d start the games instead. Presumably.

The question wasn’t whether our subs can win games, it was whether they’re weaker than our starting XI. Of course. But that’s true at every club.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 22, 2024, 09:54:32 PM
You’d say he does what? Weakens them? Yeah, me too. Not massively, because he’s really good, but he obviously does, otherwise he’d start the games instead. Presumably.

The question wasn’t whether our subs can win games, it was whether they’re weaker than our starting XI. Of course. But that’s true at every club.

Would you say mings coming in for pau weakens us?

Would you say duran for ollie weakens us? Sometimes its not about the player being better - its about what that specific player adds against the opposition.  So for example mings would be better against teams that pose a more aerial threat than pau for example. But for more possesion based and playing from the back pau is far superior. Just one example.

Dont think we will agree on this one something tells me 🙂
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on December 22, 2024, 10:09:11 PM
You’d say he does what? Weakens them? Yeah, me too. Not massively, because he’s really good, but he obviously does, otherwise he’d start the games instead. Presumably.

The question wasn’t whether our subs can win games, it was whether they’re weaker than our starting XI. Of course. But that’s true at every club.

Would you say mings coming in for pau weakens us?

Would you say duran for ollie weakens us? Sometimes its not about the player being better - its about what that specific player adds against the opposition.  So for example mings would be better against teams that pose a more aerial threat than pau for example. But for more possesion based and playing from the back pau is far superior. Just one example.

Dont think we will agree on this one something tells me 🙂

I don’t think you understand what point I’m making or what and who you’re disagreeing with.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TelfordVilla on December 22, 2024, 10:20:02 PM
Will we qualify for CL? Yes we will. Top5 will qualify this time and we will be top5. We desperately need to qualify to keep the turnover high with the riches of the CL helping us retain and recruit. Can't see anything other than a massive injury crisis stopping us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on December 22, 2024, 10:51:17 PM
Touch and go.
1) we without doubt need a couple of reinforcements in January, even if they are short term loans. RB and Pacey Winger .
2) no key players getting long term injuries .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on December 23, 2024, 02:13:24 AM
You’d say he does what? Weakens them? Yeah, me too. Not massively, because he’s really good, but he obviously does, otherwise he’d start the games instead. Presumably.

The question wasn’t whether our subs can win games, it was whether they’re weaker than our starting XI. Of course. But that’s true at every club.

It's a bit mad that this conversation is even being had.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on December 23, 2024, 06:31:59 AM
Is everyone who convinced themselves after Forest that we're definitely finishing somewhere between 7th and 10th still sure that top five is impossible?
After yesterday? No. We were that good. Do I think we will definitely achieve it? No.
But that was the first time I have seen us play like the Winter of 2023 vintage.
One thought I had as the game continued, was who can we bring on without weakening the team?

Watkins, Bailey, Mings, Ramsey, Maatsen.

And in the right circumstances Barkley, Carlos and Buendia.
Watkins not as good as Duran, Ramsey not for 2 seasons now, Carlos is at best unconvincing, last seasons Bailey yes this seasons no. Buendia nope. Mings to see out a game yes , Barkley no where near that Midfield.
Maatsen can do a job but there is a reason why he isn’t starting.
So my point is that it’s difficult to see how we don’t weaken the team from the bench.

Now name any team in the world that wouldn’t be weakened by playing their less good players.
That was sort of my point, that team and specifically the midfield combination of SJM Rogers URI Kamara Onana is as good as it gets and if we could play that midfield until the end of the season we would have a very good chance of CL qualification.
The problem is that we won’t be able to because of fatigue and injury and I do not see any of the potential replacements not weakening us quite a bit.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dcdavecollett on December 23, 2024, 03:45:18 PM
Ramsey and Barkley aren't too shabby, though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: jwarry on December 23, 2024, 04:07:09 PM
In my very humble opinion we should not rule ourselves out of the top 4.  The ‘in form’ teams have all beaten us  at their place in recent weeks - albeit we were a wee unlucky against 'The Mighty Reds YNWA' and Forest, but we were weakened by injuries too and now (fingers crossed) we have found a winning midfield combination  and I would back us to beat all of  then  at VP
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on December 23, 2024, 04:13:21 PM
Ramsey and Barkley aren't too shabby, though.
Ramsey back to his best would be a great option when or if that ever happens, Barkley hasn’t shown that he is up to it yet.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on December 23, 2024, 04:24:59 PM
I think Barkley has been ok and weighed in with a couple of goals.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on December 23, 2024, 05:10:11 PM
His winner against Leipzig has probably made the entire signing worthwhile on its own, given the money it will have been worth.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on December 23, 2024, 05:13:20 PM
Yeah, Barkley is a solid back up signing.  The problem would be if he was signed as a first choice (the kind of signing the old Villa would've made). 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tony Daleys Shorts on December 24, 2024, 08:57:15 AM
I think Barkley has been ok and weighed in with a couple of goals.

Three goals in his last six appearances, a very handy return.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on December 24, 2024, 12:30:40 PM
Too early to tell. I'd say we need mid 60s for 5th and high 60s for guaranteed.

Looking at it now. Liverpool are nailed on and Arsenal and Chelsea look as if they will also get there.

The other 2 places are gettable - if we win next 2 we would look very good at halfway mark. If we lose the next 2 we will look upwards from mid table
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: brontebilly on December 24, 2024, 01:36:46 PM
Is everyone who convinced themselves after Forest that we're definitely finishing somewhere between 7th and 10th still sure that top five is impossible?
After yesterday? No. We were that good. Do I think we will definitely achieve it? No.
But that was the first time I have seen us play like the Winter of 2023 vintage.
One thought I had as the game continued, was who can we bring on without weakening the team?

Watkins, Bailey, Mings, Ramsey, Maatsen.

And in the right circumstances Barkley, Carlos and Buendia.
Watkins not as good as Duran, Ramsey not for 2 seasons now, Carlos is at best unconvincing, last seasons Bailey yes this seasons no. Buendia nope. Mings to see out a game yes , Barkley no where near that Midfield.
Maatsen can do a job but there is a reason why he isn’t starting.
So my point is that it’s difficult to see how we don’t weaken the team from the bench.

Now name any team in the world that wouldn’t be weakened by playing their less good players.
That was sort of my point, that team and specifically the midfield combination of SJM Rogers URI Kamara Onana is as good as it gets and if we could play that midfield until the end of the season we would have a very good chance of CL qualification.
The problem is that we won’t be able to because of fatigue and injury and I do not see any of the potential replacements not weakening us quite a bit.

Bailey was very good playing on the right last season. Id have faith he will catch form again in the second half of the season, can't really be as bad again... Ramsey fit would be a huge addition but there's huge doubts on that
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on December 24, 2024, 02:29:51 PM
Right now Forest and Bournemouth are in superb form, it's highly unlikely they'll both keep that up (and I'm not convinced Chelsea won't have a bump as well) so we need to be over our blip. I think that it's huge for us that we're still within touching distance of the top 4 despite having an awful run through late October and November.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on December 24, 2024, 03:23:08 PM
Chelsea are lucky that they have five teams so the Prem 1st team are pretty much only playing the 38 games so just one game a week mostly. But they are still relying on Palmer as he has contributed almost half their goal total (17 contributions to 37 scored). Any injury to him and they might slip. But I would be surprised if Forest and Bournemouth keep it up second half.

I'm hoping our lesser tempo at the start of the season means we have the staying power for the second half compared to last year. I'm also hoping Emery's magic works better in odd numbered years as well.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on December 24, 2024, 07:32:25 PM
Saw some comments from Chelsea fans saying that Maresca should drop/substitute Palmer when he's ineffective like at Everton at the weekend.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on December 24, 2024, 07:37:29 PM
Saw some comments from Chelsea fans saying that Maresca should drop/substitute Palmer when he's ineffective like at Everton at the weekend.

Crazy, I genuinely think if he had an injury earlier this season for a couple of months they might well have 8-10 points less. That’s not to say there aren’t other good players there, but whenever I see them play he is the difference maker.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on December 24, 2024, 08:25:55 PM
Saw some comments from Chelsea fans saying that Maresca should drop/substitute Palmer when he's ineffective like at Everton at the weekend.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on December 24, 2024, 09:28:57 PM
Saw some comments from Chelsea fans saying that Maresca should drop/substitute Palmer when he's ineffective like at Everton at the weekend.
I guess he could be overplayed, but without him they are quite ordinary.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on December 24, 2024, 10:16:33 PM
Saw some comments from Chelsea fans saying that Maresca should drop/substitute Palmer when he's ineffective like at Everton at the weekend.
I guess he could be overplayed, but without him they are quite ordinary.

Well the Everton result pretty much shows that if he was supposedly ineffectual. Although he also created one of Chelsea's better chances from open play that Jackson screwed up.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on December 26, 2024, 11:06:11 AM
Saw some comments from Chelsea fans saying that Maresca should drop/substitute Palmer when he's ineffective like at Everton at the weekend.

Crazy, I genuinely think if he had an injury earlier this season for a couple of months they might well have 8-10 points less. That’s not to say there aren’t other good players there, but whenever I see them play he is the difference maker.

From what I’ve seen of them, he’s as crucial to them as Grealish used to be for us.  Take him out and I don’t think they're anything like as good. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 27, 2024, 07:04:57 AM
If we look at this from a neutral point of view this is a very fascinating season for fight for champions  league. You have sides like forest and Bournemouth really giving it a go to get there. If we wernt villa fans we would say at least its competitive and seeing the likes of villa spurs and manure outside top 7.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Richard on December 27, 2024, 12:09:19 PM
More than capable of winning 4 of our next 5 so 12 points would put us back in the mix.

Brighton, Leicester, West Ham home before end of January.

Everton, Arsenal away.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 27, 2024, 12:44:42 PM
More than capable of winning 4 of our next 5 so 12 points would put us back in the mix.

Brighton, Leicester, West Ham home before end of January.

Everton, Arsenal away.

Arsenal without saka as well which makes a big difference
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dante Lavelli on December 27, 2024, 04:54:36 PM
Yeah, Barkley is a solid back up signing.  The problem would be if he was signed as a first choice (the kind of signing the old Villa would've made). 

What makes you say that?  I’ve always guessed a squad player was everyone’s expectations.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on December 27, 2024, 05:12:22 PM
I honestly think if we reinstate our leader Tyrone and restore him and Bailey to their former glories we are quite capable of putting a CL-qualifying run together. I mean, we’re all feeling pretty down after yesterday’s game and we’ve won four out of our last six games.

If we can re-group and qualify for the RO16 without a play-off, we can concentrate on the league until March. Sadly this will probably mean plenty of minutes for our second string in the cup, but even this can be seen as a positive if one thinks they need them to get up to speed. Maatsen, Ned, Barkley, Buendia, Philogene, Barry etc.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 27, 2024, 05:37:12 PM
Agree with the bailey point especially  percy.  If we had the bailey from last season here we would be alot higher in the league.

Not sure whats gone wrong  for him this season but he as looked really bad for most of the season
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on December 27, 2024, 06:12:18 PM
We're firmly in the hunt and there'll be some ups and downs over the next few months. I'm not that worried about yesterday, I'll be a bit more concerned if we fail to win either of the next two.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on December 27, 2024, 08:15:10 PM
We need a pacey winger in january absolute minimum , maybe a couple of loans if money's too tight to mention .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 27, 2024, 08:36:54 PM
We need a pacey winger in january absolute minimum , maybe a couple of loans if money's too tight to mention .

Yep we certainly  do. Bailey and philiogene  have been mediocre most of this season. Dont think eithee has scored a league goal or a assist. Thats simply not good enough
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Karlos96 on December 27, 2024, 09:23:07 PM
We need a pacey winger in january absolute minimum , maybe a couple of loans if money's too tight to mention .

Yep we certainly  do. Bailey and philiogene  have been mediocre most of this season. Dont think eithee has scored a league goal or a assist. Thats simply not good enough

I agree they've not been good enough but Bailey has two assists in the Premier League this season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: JD on December 28, 2024, 04:24:25 AM
We're firmly in the hunt and there'll be some ups and downs over the next few months. I'm not that worried about yesterday, I'll be a bit more concerned if we fail to win either of the next two.

If we win the next two would we have been happy with 9 points from 12 from these four games. I think I would.
We just need to win the next two to be back on track.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on December 28, 2024, 05:25:08 AM
We need a pacey winger in january absolute minimum , maybe a couple of loans if money's too tight to mention .

Mick Hucknall gallivanting up the wing with his ginger locks flowing? Nah, he's Yanited isn't he? Let him tog-out for them, can't be any worse than Anthony.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 28, 2024, 06:25:57 AM
We need a pacey winger in january absolute minimum , maybe a couple of loans if money's too tight to mention .

Yep we certainly  do. Bailey and philiogene  have been mediocre most of this season. Dont think eithee has scored a league goal or a assist. Thats simply not good enough

I agree they've not been good enough but Bailey has two assists in the Premier League this season.

Thanks for correcting me 👌

Agree though its not good enough. We need more goals from  both
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eye digress on December 29, 2024, 09:32:40 PM
Still think it will click for Bailey at some point.

His prime form last season was kick started - bizarrely - by being subbed as sub up at Liverpool. On a few occasions he’s referenced a pep chat he had with Emery at that time.

It was bookended by that open goal miss at the Spammers on the opening day. Since then, not much has gone right for him.

Sensitive type, Leon.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ASHTONVILLA on December 29, 2024, 10:21:10 PM
We will be in the mix to finish top five, and get in again probably a 50:50 chance. Worst case I am certain we will qualify for the Europa League (which we have a decent chance of winning given Emery's record in the competition).

We will finish above Man City, Man Utd, and Spurs - which 9 times out of 10 would see us top 4. I also think we will finish ahead of Newcastle and Brighton, but not sure about Nottingham Forrest.

Bailey will find form at some point, Ramsey will return, Mings will get a run at some point. We will have a stronger second half of the season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on December 29, 2024, 10:29:02 PM
We need a pacey winger in january absolute minimum , maybe a couple of loans if money's too tight to mention .

Mick Hucknall gallivanting up the wing with his ginger locks flowing? Nah, he's Yanited isn't he? Let him tog-out for them, can't be any worse than Anthony.
Yeah MH is massive Utd , mates with Fergie and Eamonn Holmes .
No doubt we will draw these wankers in FA Cup 4 if we get past the spammers
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on December 30, 2024, 09:44:01 AM
Right now I think 5th looks our best bet, but we do need to find some consistency soon.  Win one lose one isn't going to get us where we need to be.  We need a decent 6 or 7 game unbeaten run which contains 4 or 5 wins.

The good news is that the teams I think we're competing with for that 5th spot are similarly inconsistent (even if we're losing to them in Newcastle and Spurs).

Forest are obviously the wildcard, as we were last season, and they might well be able to hang on around the top 4, but they play Liverpool in a fortnight and then in Feb they begin a run of six league games that includes, Newcastle, Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd and us.  If they're still in the top 5 after that run, then yes, they deserve to be taken seriously as proper CL contenders.

Personally I think they'll fade a bit (as we did), but hopefully we're better at chasing someone down than Spurs were.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on December 30, 2024, 09:49:10 AM
Unless he sorts out the defensive problems then we will end up about where we are.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dante Lavelli on December 30, 2024, 09:52:11 AM
Bailey was strapped up like Robocop at the end of last season so I thought the break would be good for him.  Weird he’s come back like the first Bailey we knew, rather than the pretty excellent version we had last season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: kippaxvilla2 on December 30, 2024, 01:43:06 PM
No.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: kippaxvilla2 on December 30, 2024, 02:02:43 PM
We are going to need around 40 points from 20 games.  Two points a game is going to be a very big ask.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on December 30, 2024, 02:10:59 PM
We are going to need around 40 points from 20 games.  Two points a game is going to be a very big ask.

But not impossible. As others have said though we need more consistency and not the feast and famine, we’ve had so far this season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on December 30, 2024, 02:19:48 PM
We are going to need around 40 points from 20 games.  Two points a game is going to be a very big ask.
Unless there is fundamental change to the way we are playing I don’t see it. This does not look like a team that can keep opposing teams from scoring and we are not prolific at the other end either.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on December 30, 2024, 02:35:09 PM
We are going to need around 40 points from 20 games.  Two points a game is going to be a very big ask.
Unless there is fundamental change to the way we are playing I don’t see it. This does not look like a team that can keep opposing teams from scoring and we are not prolific at the other end either.

I'm not sure the "we need forty points / two points per game" thing is necessarily true though. Leicester finished fifth with 62 points, and this season feels more than ever that most of the top ten teams are going to be very bunched up.

Or in other words, if we need to be getting two points per game to finish fifth then so do all those other teams who also aren't doing that at the moment.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on December 30, 2024, 02:36:57 PM
Another way of looking at it, if there are ten teams competing for one or two places, at least one or two of them are bound to go on a lengthy winning run. I wouldn't expect the required points total to be much lower for finishing fifth than previous seasons.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on December 30, 2024, 03:06:13 PM
Another way of looking at it, if there are ten teams competing for one or two places, at least one or two of them are bound to go on a lengthy winning run. I wouldn't expect the required points total to be much lower for finishing fifth than previous seasons.

But that required points total is anywhere from 62 to 75 (in the last fifteen years or so, I couldn't be bothered to go back any further). Which is quite a big range of what the team finishing fifth needs to do.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: kippaxvilla2 on December 30, 2024, 08:01:52 PM
No.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 30, 2024, 08:14:14 PM
Lock the thread =[
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on December 30, 2024, 08:26:33 PM
Lock the thread =[

Why?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: astonvilla82 on December 30, 2024, 08:46:47 PM
Lock the thread =[

Why?
Someone trying to stitch us up?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on December 30, 2024, 08:53:21 PM
Lock the thread =[

Why?

Because he wets his pants at the first sign of adversity?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 30, 2024, 08:57:16 PM
Lock the thread =[

Why?

Because he wets his pants at the first sign of adversity?

You crying again

Someone get him a tissue
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on December 30, 2024, 08:59:16 PM
Lock the thread =[

Why?

Because he wets his pants at the first sign of adversity?

You crying again

Someone get him a tissue

Ha. You’re the one that wants to close the thread, you wally.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on December 30, 2024, 09:08:34 PM
70 points should be enough for the CL and that's assuming 5th doesn't qualify for it.

To finish with 70 we need to be two or three wins better in the second half of the season. Easily doable.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Small Rodent on December 30, 2024, 09:52:47 PM
No
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 30, 2024, 09:52:59 PM
Lock the thread =[

Why?

Because he wets his pants at the first sign of adversity?

You crying again

Someone get him a tissue

Ha. You’re the one that wants to close the thread, you wally.

You heard  of tongue and cheek you lemon 😂
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on December 30, 2024, 09:54:08 PM
You heard  of tongue and cheek

Don't think anyone has ever heard of that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Deano's Mullet on December 30, 2024, 09:54:10 PM
Four wins in the last 14 league games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on December 30, 2024, 09:54:13 PM
You heard of "ban"?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on December 30, 2024, 09:54:29 PM
Can’t see it - we’re not that far away in terms of points right now but we concede far too many goals. It’s impossible for the attack to function well enough to make up that gap.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: IFWaters on December 30, 2024, 09:55:21 PM
Too much sloppiness all over the team. It's not the tactics it's just players not being able to control the ball sufficiently. It's basic stuff.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on December 30, 2024, 09:56:16 PM
It's a frustrating season. We are so wasteful. Probably threw away 6-7 points this season, off the top of my head.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: kippaxvilla2 on December 30, 2024, 09:56:28 PM
Ever since Footy disappeared we’ve been rubbish.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Steve67 on December 30, 2024, 09:56:46 PM
We are 9th at the halfway mark.  We are really poor at the back and a few players are way below where they were last season. We are still going well in the CL this season but really need three or four players in this January window to give us a boost.  Have we got the money, do we sell a valued current player?  Go bust for the FA Cup?  I can't see us above 6th.  Another crack at the Conference League shouldn't be sniffed at. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on December 30, 2024, 09:57:14 PM
Conceding that goal has changed my view. I don't think we'll qualify via the league now.

It's happening too often regardless of the relatively small points gap.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Deano's Mullet on December 30, 2024, 09:57:26 PM
We are only 3 pts behind Newcastle which is crazy.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on December 30, 2024, 09:58:12 PM
It's a frustrating season. We are so wasteful. Probably threw away 6-7 points this season, off the top of my head.
Off the top of my head I can think of Forest, tonight and Ipswich.  And that’s not including the games like Arsenal where we seemed to deliberately avoid scoring
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on December 30, 2024, 09:58:32 PM
Just seen that Chelsea lost. Very strange season all around.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on December 30, 2024, 09:58:56 PM
It's a frustrating season. We are so wasteful. Probably threw away 6-7 points this season, off the top of my head.
Off the top of my head I can think of Forest, tonight and Ipswich.  And that’s not including the games like Arsenal where we seemed to deliberately avoid scoring

Bournemouth at home. 96th min, conceded the equaliser.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Deano's Mullet on December 30, 2024, 09:59:16 PM
It's a frustrating season. We are so wasteful. Probably threw away 6-7 points this season, off the top of my head.
Off the top of my head I can think of Forest, tonight and Ipswich.  And that’s not including the games like Arsenal where we seemed to deliberately avoid scoring

Bournemouth
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on December 30, 2024, 10:00:18 PM
As it stands now, absolutely no chance, we are too easy to score against. See if anything happens in Jan.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: German James on December 30, 2024, 10:00:36 PM
I doubt we'll qualify. But I thought it was too soon this season, so I wouldn't be disappointed with Europa League. We need more time to build a squad for the top bit of the PL, let alone one deep enough to compete in the CL at the same time.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on December 30, 2024, 10:02:12 PM
They said on commentary before the equaliser that we'd conceded the most goals in the last 15 mins of any team in the league.  Then we did it again.  We either need to start getting two-goal leads, or something has to change defensively.

That second one was stared and finished by their right back, a decent player,  but he ran forty yards with the ball, then moved into the middle, unmarked, for a free hit inside our box.  That is unacceptable.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: villa_cads on December 30, 2024, 10:03:57 PM
We've more chance of winning it this year than qualifying through the league 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on December 30, 2024, 10:04:02 PM
70 points should be enough for the CL and that's assuming 5th doesn't qualify for it.

To finish with 70 we need to be two or three wins better in the second half of the season. Easily doable.

Love your positivity, but it's bang on four wins directly from the loss column. That equates to 12 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses. Which is an immediate return in form right now to 2023 standards. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 30, 2024, 10:12:06 PM
If you concede as many goals as we do its almost impossible to get  CL.

Defensively we have been awful this season
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on December 30, 2024, 10:14:26 PM
Unless we sort the defensive record, no. I reckon we managed 6 clean sheets in the league in 2024, the same as the horror team managed in the 2015/16 season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rudy65 on December 30, 2024, 10:19:30 PM
Nope
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: itbrvilla on December 30, 2024, 10:20:08 PM
We'll finish 8th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: CT Villan on December 30, 2024, 10:20:35 PM
It is too soon to say categorically, but it is looking unlikely. We are last season's Newcastle with a better chance of progression in UCL.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 30, 2024, 10:22:59 PM
Cant wait to see back end of 2024. Barring champions league games the league form for 2024 has generally  been shit.

Bring on 2025!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: steamer on December 30, 2024, 10:28:46 PM
Answer to topic question
Only if we we win this year
nowhere near qualifying from our league position
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Accent Guy on December 30, 2024, 10:29:45 PM
Cant wait to see back end of 2024. Barring champions league games the league form for 2024 has generally  been shit.

Bring on 2025!

I thought we were the 6th best side in 2024 points wise?

Contextually, over a season, wouldn't that equal our best PL finishes in decades, last season aside?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 30, 2024, 10:42:58 PM
Cant wait to see back end of 2024. Barring champions league games the league form for 2024 has generally  been shit.

Bring on 2025!

I thought we were the 6th best side in 2024 points wise?

Contextually, over a season, wouldn't that equal our best PL finishes in decades, last season aside?

Thats incredible if true as our poor form last season started  around december time, (mainly lasted in second half of season) then the start of th :-*is seaosn hasnt been as good as the start on 2023.

It can only get  better for 2025 😁
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on December 30, 2024, 11:23:05 PM
Yeah 2024 had been shit. Finished 4th, played in the Champions League, beating Bayern, witnessed the emergence of one of the best young centre forwards around and the coming of age of one of the country's best young attacking midfielders. Etc etc.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on December 30, 2024, 11:24:33 PM
Only way we qualify is as defending champions
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on December 30, 2024, 11:38:57 PM
Ever since Footy disappeared we’ve been rubbish.

Correct.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on December 30, 2024, 11:40:50 PM
Cant wait to see back end of 2024. Barring champions league games the league form for 2024 has generally  been shit.

Bring on 2025!

I thought we were the 6th best side in 2024 points wise?

Contextually, over a season, wouldn't that equal our best PL finishes in decades, last season aside?

Yep, here you go.

https://www.transfermarkt.com/premier-league/jahrestabelle/wettbewerb/GB1

Last sixth placed finish before last season was 2009/10.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on December 30, 2024, 11:59:27 PM
No chance really of Champions League this season with the defence as calamitous as it is. Only West Ham, Brentford and the bottom 4 have conceded more.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on December 31, 2024, 12:19:46 AM
Another crack at the Conference League shouldn't be sniffed at. 

It will be sniffed at by our best players who now want to play Champions League football every season. I'd settle for the Europa League and the FA Cup this year but the Europa Conference feels redundant now. Chelsea beat everyone in sight even with their second team.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Le Lapin on December 31, 2024, 11:00:07 AM
We keeping gifting goals and missing chances at the other end. If we keep this up and we are finishing mid table. No top team can give away goals like we do, no top team surrenders leads like we do. Not good enough at all. Hopefully we can sort this out and go on some sort of run to bring us into the Champs League places, but on the showing of last night this is hard to see happening. All this calender year we have been consistently inconsistent. Here's to a brilliant 2025!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 31, 2024, 11:10:25 AM
Another crack at the Conference League shouldn't be sniffed at. 

It will be sniffed at by our best players who now want to play Champions League football every season. I'd settle for the Europa League and the FA Cup this year but the Europa Conference feels redundant now. Chelsea beat everyone in sight even with their second team.

The quality of the sides looks far less than last season.

I wouldnt care of we went for conference.  We can just play a B team give them more minutes so rwafy for league. Works well for chelsea so i would be ok with this
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on December 31, 2024, 01:41:55 PM
The big problem with not qualifying which is very likely, is that it will make it very difficult to retain our best players. Then try qualifying without Kamara Rogers Duran Martinez.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on December 31, 2024, 01:47:19 PM
The big problem with not qualifying which is very likely, is that it will make it very difficult to retain our best players. Then try qualifying without Kamara Rogers Duran Martinez.

Said this in summer. Maatsen even said getting CL was one of the main reasons he joined us
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on December 31, 2024, 01:50:17 PM
Just win it, this season, Qualifying by league position is the more boring route to qualify, anyway.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Goldenballs on January 01, 2025, 09:08:28 AM
https://x.com/premierleague/status/1874123597175804161?t=sdkqcRFlWTqeE7hQJ7TCxA&s=19

2024 table if it hasn't already been posted.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 01, 2025, 09:21:48 AM
{alt}
https://x.com/premierleague/status/1874123597175804161?t=sdkqcRFlWTqeE7hQJ7TCxA&s=19

2024 table if it hasn't already been posted.

That teally suprises me as i thought we were alot worse. Thanks for sharing that. Very interesting
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on January 01, 2025, 10:01:41 AM
Yes we will but that table doesn't make for good reading really. We're a very long way off the top.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on January 01, 2025, 10:13:07 AM
I think a lot depends on whether we can sign 2 or 3 players in the next couple of weeks.  If we can’t, then I think 6th or 7th might be as good as we can do.  The team needs another high quality right sided defender, cover for mings and another right winger. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on January 01, 2025, 10:54:57 AM
I think a lot depends on whether we can sign 2 or 3 players in the next couple of weeks.  If we can’t, then I think 6th or 7th might be as good as we can do.  The team needs another high quality right sided defender, cover for mings and another right winger.
Which is easier said than done.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on January 01, 2025, 11:23:23 AM
Indeed.  They’ve known about the right side for months though, so hopefully there is a plan for that.  Cover for Mings could be really tough unless they’ve made up their mind he’s surplus.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on January 01, 2025, 11:31:38 AM
Indeed.  They’ve known about the right side for months though, so hopefully there is a plan for that.  Cover for Mings could be really tough unless they’ve made up their mind he’s surplus.
Hope you are right about a RB. But they have had years to sort it out.
I think Carlos will cover Left CB but that still leaves us short defensively.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chris Smith on January 01, 2025, 11:59:47 AM
Indeed.  They’ve known about the right side for months though, so hopefully there is a plan for that.  Cover for Mings could be really tough unless they’ve made up their mind he’s surplus.

Maybe a loan as Torres should be back in a couple of months.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on January 01, 2025, 12:20:30 PM
Indeed.  They’ve known about the right side for months though, so hopefully there is a plan for that.  Cover for Mings could be really tough unless they’ve made up their mind he’s surplus.

Maybe a loan as Torres should be back in a couple of months.

Yep, I'd have thought that's the most likely.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 04, 2025, 05:54:00 PM
Four points behind chelsea in 4th now.

We really need to go for it if we can get some quality in as CL is there for the taking
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on January 04, 2025, 06:01:12 PM
Four points behind chelsea in 4th now.

We really need to go for it if we can get some quality in as CL is there for the taking

Careful. You're borderline cheerful there.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on January 04, 2025, 06:01:29 PM
Back to back qualification for the Champions League would be incredible, and cement our place at the top table.  But it looks increasingly difficult this season given Newcastle's lack of Europe is giving their expensively assembled squad the chance to really shine, and Chelsea (despite their current wobble) have looked much improved this season.

We really do need a couple of reinforcements in Janury, not just for the sake of numbers, but players who can contribute to the first team.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 04, 2025, 06:09:26 PM
Four points behind chelsea in 4th now.

We really need to go for it if we can get some quality in as CL is there for the taking

Careful. You're borderline cheerful there.

Im making extra effort for you Dave 😁
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rudy Can't Fail on January 04, 2025, 06:28:51 PM
Back to back qualification for the Champions League would be incredible, and cement our place at the top table.  But it looks increasingly difficult this season given Newcastle's lack of Europe is giving their expensively assembled squad the chance to really shine, and Chelsea (despite their current wobble) have looked much improved this season.

We really do need a couple of reinforcements in Janury, not just for the sake of numbers, but players who can contribute to the first team.

Looking at the Saudi's remaining games, they have a pretty easy set of fixtures where if they were to maintain their current form there's only a couple of games where you wouldn't fancy them. Forest have plenty of tough games and I expect them to drop out the top 5. I think it's between us and them for 6th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: kippaxvilla2 on January 04, 2025, 06:30:47 PM
The majority of home game left are against opposition around and above us.  So it’s kind of in our hands. But I fear the inconsistency is going to haunt us for the rest of the season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 04, 2025, 06:32:34 PM
Back to back qualification for the Champions League would be incredible, and cement our place at the top table.  But it looks increasingly difficult this season given Newcastle's lack of Europe is giving their expensively assembled squad the chance to really shine, and Chelsea (despite their current wobble) have looked much improved this season.

We really do need a couple of reinforcements in Janury, not just for the sake of numbers, but players who can contribute to the first team.

Looking at the Saudi's remaining games, they have a pretty easy set of fixtures where if they were to maintain their current form there's only a couple of games where you wouldn't fancy them. Forest have plenty of tough games and I expect them to drop out the top 5. I think it's between us and them for 6th.

Hasn't  everyone  got the same fixtures left minus this weeks round of games ?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rudy Can't Fail on January 04, 2025, 06:38:56 PM
Back to back qualification for the Champions League would be incredible, and cement our place at the top table.  But it looks increasingly difficult this season given Newcastle's lack of Europe is giving their expensively assembled squad the chance to really shine, and Chelsea (despite their current wobble) have looked much improved this season.

We really do need a couple of reinforcements in Janury, not just for the sake of numbers, but players who can contribute to the first team.

Looking at the Saudi's remaining games, they have a pretty easy set of fixtures where if they were to maintain their current form there's only a couple of games where you wouldn't fancy them. Forest have plenty of tough games and I expect them to drop out the top 5. I think it's between us and them for 6th.

Hasn't  everyone  got the same fixtures left minus this weeks round of games ?

They've done most of the tough away games and you always fancy them at Sid James Park. The aways are almost all winnable.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Monty on January 04, 2025, 07:29:11 PM
Obligatory 'fuck Newcastle hope they go out of business' post.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on January 04, 2025, 08:25:30 PM
I fucking hate Newcastle. Ever since the mid 90s the media is so far up their arse it’s almost Spurs like in its obsequiousness. It’s as if no one else has passionate fans or sings songs or waves flags or has an atmosphere. Also that utter utter walking excuse for a footballer Joelinton plays for them and he is the worst, literally the worst person to ever play the game and I’ve seen Ben Thatcher. They can stick there Geordienation, horse punching, not won a trophy since Noah was a lad, blowing the league in 96 attitude right up their arse the fucking ******.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rory on January 04, 2025, 09:46:51 PM
The last two posts have made me happy.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 04, 2025, 09:59:45 PM
Back to back qualification for the Champions League would be incredible, and cement our place at the top table.  But it looks increasingly difficult this season given Newcastle's lack of Europe is giving their expensively assembled squad the chance to really shine, and Chelsea (despite their current wobble) have looked much improved this season.

We really do need a couple of reinforcements in Janury, not just for the sake of numbers, but players who can contribute to the first team.

Looking at the Saudi's remaining games, they have a pretty easy set of fixtures where if they were to maintain their current form there's only a couple of games where you wouldn't fancy them. Forest have plenty of tough games and I expect them to drop out the top 5. I think it's between us and them for 6th.

Hasn't  everyone  got the same fixtures left minus this weeks round of games ?

They've done most of the tough away games and you always fancy them at Sid James Park. The aways are almost all winnable.

Ah ok gotcha 👌
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rudy Can't Fail on January 04, 2025, 10:12:40 PM
What we need to do is stick with the current Top 8 which look like they will breakaway from those below and then anything is possible, other than winning the league obviously.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chap on January 04, 2025, 10:51:58 PM
I fucking hate Newcastle. Ever since the mid 90s the media is so far up their arse it’s almost Spurs like in its obsequiousness. It’s as if no one else has passionate fans or sings songs or waves flags or has an atmosphere. Also that utter utter walking excuse for a footballer Joelinton plays for them and he is the worst, literally the worst person to ever play the game and I’ve seen Ben Thatcher. They can stick there Geordienation, horse punching, not won a trophy since Noah was a lad, blowing the league in 96 attitude right up their arse the fucking ******.
Almost Shakespearean!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on January 05, 2025, 01:12:55 AM
Hahaha but look a fat man has his top off in the cold, funny ay they?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rory on January 05, 2025, 03:35:14 AM
Hahaha but look a fat man has his top off in the cold, funny ay they?

I have no idea who you might be referring to there.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on January 05, 2025, 06:19:51 AM
Hahaha but look a fat man has his top off in the cold, funny ay they?

I have no idea who you might be referring to there.
Random horse puncher.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on January 05, 2025, 07:16:58 AM
Rory doesn't punch horses and I doubt is that phat.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Richard E on January 05, 2025, 07:33:53 AM
I fucking hate Newcastle. Ever since the mid 90s the media is so far up their arse it’s almost Spurs like in its obsequiousness. It’s as if no one else has passionate fans or sings songs or waves flags or has an atmosphere. Also that utter utter walking excuse for a footballer Joelinton plays for them and he is the worst, literally the worst person to ever play the game and I’ve seen Ben Thatcher. They can stick there Geordienation, horse punching, not won a trophy since Noah was a lad, blowing the league in 96 attitude right up their arse the fucking ******.

This is beautiful. Up there with Mr Woodhall’s legendary Albion rant.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Monty on January 05, 2025, 08:49:12 AM
Everyone's favourite fans, the lovable Geordies! They're drinking! They're shirtless whales! They're dancing about with the flag of the House of Saud! So cute!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TaxDodger on January 05, 2025, 10:33:28 AM
I imagine it's been discussed earlier in the thread, and I'm in danger of contributing to another 'why didn't Barry take the penalty?', but I'm afraid I'm incredibly lazy, so I'll ask anyway..

Assuming England gets five places in next season's Champions League, and teams in the top 5 win the Carabao Cup and the FA Cup, does that mean European qualification goes all the way down to 8th?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on January 05, 2025, 10:43:02 AM
Yup.

And not that it matters (probably) for your permutations, but Man Utd and Spurs are the top two favourites for the Europa League, so if one of them wins it and they don't finish top five, it would be six Champions League clubs from England.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on January 05, 2025, 10:44:56 AM
I imagine it's been discussed earlier in the thread, and I'm in danger of contributing to another 'why didn't Barry take the penalty?', but I'm afraid I'm incredibly lazy, so I'll ask anyway..

Assuming England gets five places in next season's Champions League, and teams in the top 5 win the Carabao Cup and the FA Cup, does that mean European qualification goes all the way down to 8th?

Yes, I think. I think there’s a scenario that if we won the Champions League and finished 9th everyone above us would still qualify fir Europe and England would have 6 teams in the Champions League.

Just thinking about this that could go up to 7 if either ManYoo or Spuds win the Europa League and finish outside the top 7/8.

However I may be making this up.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DeKuip on January 05, 2025, 10:56:42 AM
I imagine it's been discussed earlier in the thread, and I'm in danger of contributing to another 'why didn't Barry take the penalty?', but I'm afraid I'm incredibly lazy, so I'll ask anyway..

Assuming England gets five places in next season's Champions League, and teams in the top 5 win the Carabao Cup and the FA Cup, does that mean European qualification goes all the way down to 8th?
Yes it would. But as we’re going to win one of the two cups we’re still in we don’t need to worry about that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Baldy on January 05, 2025, 11:03:16 AM
Strange Premier League this season. Bit like a marathon and Villa are in the pack.

We havn't got out of third gear yet whereas many of the other runners are at full capacity. We have the ability, strength in depth and managerial nouse to overtake the likes of Forest, Chelsea, Newcastle, Bournemouth etc and a top 4 or 5 position is well within our grasp.

Injuries will be key but we are in a better position than most to handle that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Astnor on January 05, 2025, 11:08:14 AM
We will be there or thereabout. I can see us being fifth. Lpool, Arse and then City probl get their act together enough. Newc with Isak and being strong at home can have a good run for fourth bare injuries to key players. The young team of Chelsea might start to fall behind. Would be a supprise if Forest and Wood would keep it up all season. Spurs and Manu in trouble and big trouble already.
We still show promise of yesteryears hight but still fluffy goals against that cost us. worrying with injury to Pau as he is one key to our play and also now McGinn to a lesser degree.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 05, 2025, 12:28:05 PM
We will be there or thereabout. I can see us being fifth. Lpool, Arse and then City probl get their act together enough. Newc with Isak and being strong at home can have a good run for fourth bare injuries to key players. The young team of Chelsea might start to fall behind. Would be a supprise if Forest and Wood would keep it up all season. Spurs and Manu in trouble and big trouble already.
We still show promise of yesteryears hight but still fluffy goals against that cost us. worrying with injury to Pau as he is one key to our play and also now McGinn to a lesser degree.

I think it would take a almighty collapse from forest to finish  outside  the top 5 now
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Baldy on January 05, 2025, 12:59:19 PM
We will be there or thereabout. I can see us being fifth. Lpool, Arse and then City probl get their act together enough. Newc with Isak and being strong at home can have a good run for fourth bare injuries to key players. The young team of Chelsea might start to fall behind. Would be a supprise if Forest and Wood would keep it up all season. Spurs and Manu in trouble and big trouble already.
We still show promise of yesteryears hight but still fluffy goals against that cost us. worrying with injury to Pau as he is one key to our play and also now McGinn to a lesser degree.

I think it would take a almighty collapse from forest to finish  outside  the top 5 now

Or perhaps, just an injury to Morgan Gibbs White or Chris Wood!!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eye digress on January 05, 2025, 01:11:32 PM
We will be there or thereabout. I can see us being fifth. Lpool, Arse and then City probl get their act together enough. Newc with Isak and being strong at home can have a good run for fourth bare injuries to key players. The young team of Chelsea might start to fall behind. Would be a supprise if Forest and Wood would keep it up all season. Spurs and Manu in trouble and big trouble already.
We still show promise of yesteryears hight but still fluffy goals against that cost us. worrying with injury to Pau as he is one key to our play and also now McGinn to a lesser degree.

I think it would take a almighty collapse from forest to finish  outside  the top 5 now
Hardly. A couple of defeats on the bounce would see them back in the mix, and I would say that that is more than less likely to happen, as well as they have done so far, owing to the lack of depth in their squad as well as a relative lack of genuine quality.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on January 05, 2025, 01:14:03 PM
Yeah I think we're more likely to catch Forest than Citeh or Chelsea
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on January 05, 2025, 01:16:40 PM
We will be there or thereabout. I can see us being fifth. Lpool, Arse and then City probl get their act together enough. Newc with Isak and being strong at home can have a good run for fourth bare injuries to key players. The young team of Chelsea might start to fall behind. Would be a supprise if Forest and Wood would keep it up all season. Spurs and Manu in trouble and big trouble already.
We still show promise of yesteryears hight but still fluffy goals against that cost us. worrying with injury to Pau as he is one key to our play and also now McGinn to a lesser degree.

I think it would take a almighty collapse from forest to finish  outside  the top 5 now

Not in the slightest. It would take them getting 3 fewer points than Man City, 2 fewer points than Newcastle and 1 less point than Chelsea, between now and the end of the season.

If do that and win 4 fewer points than Bournemouth and 5 (maybe 6 - because of goal difference) fewer points than us, they will finish 8th.

So whilst all of that is far from guaranteed, it wouldn’t take an almighty collapse.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: olaftab on January 05, 2025, 05:34:48 PM
We are in the mix but will need 36 points from remaining 18 games. That allows very little room for error.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: darren woolley on January 05, 2025, 05:42:36 PM
If we can have a strong second half of the season then we will give ourselves a chance.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 05, 2025, 05:45:12 PM
We will be there or thereabout. I can see us being fifth. Lpool, Arse and then City probl get their act together enough. Newc with Isak and being strong at home can have a good run for fourth bare injuries to key players. The young team of Chelsea might start to fall behind. Would be a supprise if Forest and Wood would keep it up all season. Spurs and Manu in trouble and big trouble already.
We still show promise of yesteryears hight but still fluffy goals against that cost us. worrying with injury to Pau as he is one key to our play and also now McGinn to a lesser degree.

I think it would take a almighty collapse from forest to finish  outside  the top 5 now

Not in the slightest. It would take them getting 3 fewer points than Man City, 2 fewer points than Newcastle and 1 less point than Chelsea, between now and the end of the season.

If do that and win 4 fewer points than Bournemouth and 5 (maybe 6 - because of goal difference) fewer points than us, they will finish 8th.

So whilst all of that is far from guaranteed, it wouldn’t take an almighty collapse.

Did you think we would collapse at this stage last season? Remember five teams get CL this year.

Thats also on the assumption  they don't bring any players in this month too
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on January 05, 2025, 05:46:11 PM
If we can have a strong second half of the season then we will give ourselves a chance.

I’m expecting us to click at some point, I just hope there’s enough games left when we do!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on January 05, 2025, 06:23:11 PM
It's going to be difficult. Injuries starting to mount and just as Mings/Ramsey are back fit, we lose someone in a similar position (Torres/McGinn). Ads and Risso still missing too. We might need to recall Salsa Party Animal from his loan-spell on the Strictly forum for his quick feet.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on January 05, 2025, 06:31:54 PM
We will be there or thereabout. I can see us being fifth. Lpool, Arse and then City probl get their act together enough. Newc with Isak and being strong at home can have a good run for fourth bare injuries to key players. The young team of Chelsea might start to fall behind. Would be a supprise if Forest and Wood would keep it up all season. Spurs and Manu in trouble and big trouble already.
We still show promise of yesteryears hight but still fluffy goals against that cost us. worrying with injury to Pau as he is one key to our play and also now McGinn to a lesser degree.

I think it would take a almighty collapse from forest to finish  outside  the top 5 now

Not in the slightest. It would take them getting 3 fewer points than Man City, 2 fewer points than Newcastle and 1 less point than Chelsea, between now and the end of the season.

If do that and win 4 fewer points than Bournemouth and 5 (maybe 6 - because of goal difference) fewer points than us, they will finish 8th.

So whilst all of that is far from guaranteed, it wouldn’t take an almighty collapse.

Did you think we would collapse at this stage last season? Remember five teams get CL this year.

Thats also on the assumption  they don't bring any players in this month too

That doesn’t seem to be a response to what I said. In any way.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on January 05, 2025, 06:42:13 PM
Either way, it also backs up your position more than his.

Top three form in the first half of last season turning into top eight form in the second half had a huge number of people on here certain that we had no chance.

For Forest to finish outside the top five it will require nothing more than for them to have a slightly worse second half of the season and any three of five or six others to have a slightly better second half.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 05, 2025, 07:13:50 PM
We will be there or thereabout. I can see us being fifth. Lpool, Arse and then City probl get their act together enough. Newc with Isak and being strong at home can have a good run for fourth bare injuries to key players. The young team of Chelsea might start to fall behind. Would be a supprise if Forest and Wood would keep it up all season. Spurs and Manu in trouble and big trouble already.
We still show promise of yesteryears hight but still fluffy goals against that cost us. worrying with injury to Pau as he is one key to our play and also now McGinn to a lesser degree.

I think it would take a almighty collapse from forest to finish  outside  the top 5 now

Not in the slightest. It would take them getting 3 fewer points than Man City, 2 fewer points than Newcastle and 1 less point than Chelsea, between now and the end of the season.

If do that and win 4 fewer points than Bournemouth and 5 (maybe 6 - because of goal difference) fewer points than us, they will finish 8th.

So whilst all of that is far from guaranteed, it wouldn’t take an almighty collapse.

Did you think we would collapse at this stage last season? Remember five teams get CL this year.

Thats also on the assumption  they don't bring any players in this month too

That doesn’t seem to be a response to what I said. In any way.

I have no idea what this even means.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 05, 2025, 07:18:53 PM
Either way, it also backs up your position more than his.

Top three form in the first half of last season turning into top eight form in the second half had a huge number of people on here certain that we had no chance.

For Forest to finish outside the top five it will require nothing more than for them to have a slightly worse second half of the season and any three of five or six others to have a slightly better second half.

Its no suprise you disagree with everything  i say

But last season at this stage we were not 2nd and went on a terrible run of  form yet still finished 4th. Forest go 2nd (pending on goals scored) if they win tomorrow. They are only side to win at anfield this year so they cant be that shit.Then you have this season  where no team seems to be capable of going on a run apart from liverpool.

But lets ignore those elements.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on January 05, 2025, 07:32:52 PM

I have no idea what this even means.

Well there’s literally no chance I’m explaining it all to you. Have a read back of the conversation.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Keeno on January 06, 2025, 01:07:39 PM
9-10 wins from the 18 games remaining wil have us around 60-64 points. Which while less than last year, will definitely have us in contention for 4/5th. Everyone has been so inconsistent this year in those 4-8th positions, I don't think you'll need as many points as we got last year to finish fourth.

Despite our 'poor form' we're still on track to be around the 60 point mark. I'm hoping a slight uptick in the form of certain players, a bit of energy from new signings, and a few teams who have been overperforming their numbers like Forest regressing slightly, will see us pick up a few more than that.

That's before Coefficient FC delivers 5th place for CL... which we are playing our part in securing. We're still in a pretty good position.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on January 06, 2025, 01:52:30 PM
I think a lot depends on how much the next few days sap 3/4 League Cup SFs. Arsenal started to mount up injuries, Spurs are all over the place but can still hammer teams and Newcastle front 6 are on fire so we need a sniper to take out one or two.

I'd say top3 will be same as last year meaning we have to finish ahead of 2 of Forest (doing a Leicester), Chelsea and Toon.

Not easy
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Pat Mustard on January 06, 2025, 02:23:34 PM
I think a lot depends on how much the next few days sap 3/4 League Cup SFs. Arsenal started to mount up injuries, Spurs are all over the place but can still hammer teams and Newcastle front 6 are on fire so we need a sniper to take out one or two.

I'd say top3 will be same as last year meaning we have to finish ahead of 2 of Forest (doing a Leicester), Chelsea and Toon.

Not easy

I agree with this summary, albeit one big thing in our favour is we still have to play all three of Forest, Chelsea and Newcastle at Villa Park - none of them will fancy that fixture if we are breathing down their necks.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on January 06, 2025, 02:27:49 PM
I really want us to smash Newcastle. Howe is overdue a schooling from Emery.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on January 06, 2025, 05:15:03 PM
Not really, he dished one out at the first attempt.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on January 07, 2025, 11:54:25 AM
I know and has had his arse handed to him by Howe three times since then. Unless that 3-0 at VP provides you with enough salve to withstand years of maulings by the pricks.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on January 07, 2025, 12:59:04 PM
No, it doesn't. And fair enough, I thought you were suggesting he'd never beaten him but can now see that it doesn't necessarily read like that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on January 07, 2025, 01:45:55 PM
I think our level needs to go up a fair bit if we’re going to. The points gap is fairly small, but it feels more like we’re clinging to coat tails rather than on a surge.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on January 10, 2025, 02:57:52 PM
I think our level needs to go up a fair bit if we’re going to. The points gap is fairly small, but it feels more like we’re clinging to coat tails rather than on a surge.

We need a 'run' of wins, we've not really had it all season. We also need to stop being absolute pussies on the road.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on January 10, 2025, 03:05:40 PM
We haven't had too many convincing victories. Last season and the backend of 2023 season it felt like we were blowing teams away quick time. Every win this season feels edgy.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on January 10, 2025, 06:08:16 PM
I think our level needs to go up a fair bit if we’re going to. The points gap is fairly small, but it feels more like we’re clinging to coat tails rather than on a surge.

We need a 'run' of wins, we've not really had it all season. We also need to stop being absolute pussies on the road.

Top 3 for home form and bottom 6 in away form, that definitely needs to change as generally pre this season we’ve got our act together away from VP.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rudy Can't Fail on January 10, 2025, 06:18:14 PM
Does anybody know assuming the PL gets a 5th CL place, what would have if a English team were to win the Europa League thus automatically qualifying for the CL, will the 5th place team lose their CL place?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on January 10, 2025, 06:18:42 PM
We had a run of wins start of the season, including Young Boys and Wycombe it was five in a row. Then we decided we could have a stroll in the second half v Ipswich and cocked that up.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on January 10, 2025, 06:24:09 PM
Does anybody know assuming the PL gets a 5th CL place, what would have if a English team were to win the Europa League thus automatically qualifying for the CL, will the 5th place team lose their CL place?

I believe we’d have 6 teams in it, if the winner wasn’t already in the top 5.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on January 10, 2025, 06:29:28 PM
Does anybody know assuming the PL gets a 5th CL place, what would have if a English team were to win the Europa League thus automatically qualifying for the CL, will the 5th place team lose their CL place?

I believe we’d have 6 teams in it, if the winner wasn’t already in the top 5.

Correct. And I think that if we won the Champions League, finished sixth and Spurs won the Europa League and finished lower than us then there would be seven teams in it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rudy Can't Fail on January 10, 2025, 06:56:55 PM
Does anybody know assuming the PL gets a 5th CL place, what would have if a English team were to win the Europa League thus automatically qualifying for the CL, will the 5th place team lose their CL place?

I believe we’d have 6 teams in it, if the winner wasn’t already in the top 5.

Correct. And I think that if we won the Champions League, finished sixth and Spurs won the Europa League and finished lower than us then there would be seven teams in it.

Cheers, gents.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on January 11, 2025, 11:28:46 AM
We need to do what both Forest and Newcastle have done and win five on the bounce to get back in the pack. Doesn't feel likely right now, but not impossible.

Bournemouth are a good side, but we need to be taking them if we have serious aspirations. Man City could resume their collapse/get a points deduction. Need one, probably two, of Forest, Newcastle and Chelsea to have an extended wobble.

First time this season I'm thinking it won't happen this year tbh, even with five. Unless we win the thing obvs.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 11, 2025, 07:09:01 PM
We need to do what both Forest and Newcastle have done and win five on the bounce to get back in the pack. Doesn't feel likely right now, but not impossible.

Bournemouth are a good side, but we need to be taking them if we have serious aspirations. Man City could resume their collapse/get a points deduction. Need one, probably two, of Forest, Newcastle and Chelsea to have an extended wobble.

First time this season I'm thinking it won't happen this year tbh, even with five. Unless we win the thing obvs.

We wont qualify if we dont strengthen  thats for sure.  But thankfully looks like we will.

I do agree with you we need a run but we have 3 away games (inc the CL one)  we could drift off even further before our next home game
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on January 15, 2025, 09:58:59 PM
After that we're up to 35 points from 21 where we need to be aiming for around 70 so we do need a bit of an improvement but we're really not far from where we need to be, either in terms of results/points or in terms of performances. With Malen in and JJ, Mings and Kamara all getting towards full fitness I think there's plenty to be positive about right now, even if it feels disappointing that we didn't get a couple more and really dominate tonight.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: django on January 15, 2025, 10:07:00 PM
It would be lovely if we could get a couple of comfortable wins but we’re still in the mix for the champions league despite not being at our best. It will involve overhauling two of Chelsea, Forest, Newcastle and Man City though which seems a tough ask.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on January 15, 2025, 10:16:27 PM
It would be lovely if we could get a couple of comfortable wins but we’re still in the mix for the champions league despite not being at our best. It will involve overhauling two of Chelsea, Forest, Newcastle and Man City though which seems a tough ask.

You say "overhauling" like we've got a huge amount of catching up to do.  But there is only 3 points covering Newcastle, Chelsea, Man City and us.  With Forest only 3 points further up despite their ridiculously good run.

At some point, we're going to have a good run and string a decent handful of results together, I'm fairly certain of that.  Until that happens, if we can stay within a single result's points of the Champions League places I'll be happy.

Considering how stuttering our performances have sometimes been this season, it's remarkable really that we're still right in the fight for a Champions League place.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: django on January 15, 2025, 10:21:13 PM
Yeah to get the points to catch them could just be a couple of games but where it’s difficult is they are currently in better form than us.

It’s still a long way to go though. It’s perfectly possible we could have a stretch of games where we out perform them. It’s not long ago
Newcastle we’re patchy and Isak wasn’t in the deadly form he’s now in.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 15, 2025, 10:22:56 PM
2 points off the mighty  chelsea.

We are certainly keeping these sides on their toes. We need a forest implosion. If that happens we have a gfrat chance. As i think arsenal liverpool city (unless they get a points deduction) and Newcastle  are pretty much bankers for top 4
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dante Lavelli on January 15, 2025, 10:29:53 PM
I don’t think we’d be far away if we won the home games in the six-pointers versus Forest, Chelsea and Newcastle.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on January 15, 2025, 10:39:26 PM
I don’t think we’d be far away if we won the home games in the six-pointers versus Forest, Chelsea and Newcastle.

Bournemouth and Forest are the two real pissers for me.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on January 15, 2025, 10:42:35 PM
We clearly see ourselves as having had a spell of playing really poorly, but even given that, in all competitions, the last 10 games, we're W7 D1 L2, which is pretty impressive.

Good sides manage to still pick up points whilst playing badly. Remember how Ferguson's Man United would do that for long periods of time.

If we can pick up a couple more improvements this window, and start to put together more form, we're well set.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TaxDodger on January 15, 2025, 10:48:43 PM
I think we’ll be good for Europe, but top 5 is looking very tough. Call me Mr Pessimistic but we’re probably going to be 9 points behind Forest, 6 behind Newcastle and 5 behind Chelsea after the weekend.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on January 15, 2025, 10:50:00 PM
We'll be in the CL next season as defending champions.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on January 15, 2025, 11:13:43 PM
I’m becoming more positive as we’ve trundled through the last couple of months, we’re not playing brilliantly but we’re doing well enough for 5th imv. We’re in the mix that’s all you can ask and doing that with Champions League as well is certainly better than some other clubs we could mention last season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chap on January 16, 2025, 06:28:55 AM
We'll be in the CL next season as defending champions.
my thoughts as well. Just got a feeling😁
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on January 16, 2025, 07:10:58 AM
I think we’ll be good for Europe, but top 5 is looking very tough. Call me Mr Pessimistic but we’re probably going to be 9 points behind Forest, 6 behind Newcastle and 5 behind Chelsea after the weekend.
Agree, we have to go on a long run of winning games, and I just don’t see it. Here is our next 6.
Arse A
Wham H
Wolves A
Ipswich H
Chelsea H
Palace A
+ 2 CL games and 1 FA cup we have a game every 4 days so it’s imperative that we avoid the play off round which would add another 2 games.
We just do not have the strength in depth to cope with that.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 16, 2025, 08:18:49 AM
Yep i agree. If we beat monaco then we should be good for qualifying automatically if we avoid defeat vs Celtic
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on January 16, 2025, 08:46:27 AM
Being 3 points behind Newcastle, who are in the title race, maybe we can dream again https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cvg8pv9gqnyo

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on January 16, 2025, 08:55:32 AM
It's more than doable. For all we feel we've underperformed so far we're 3 points off CL places and the only sides to beat us are the top 5 (4 of them away) and Spurs away. After the Arsenal game we only have the 2 Manc clubs away for 'top' sides and we're no mugs at home against anyone.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on January 16, 2025, 08:56:52 AM
I've gone from a No to Don't Know

Stating the bleeding obvious how we do v Chelsea Bournemouth Forest and Toon, most of those at home will be a deciding factor.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on January 16, 2025, 09:02:55 PM
Being 3 points behind Newcastle, who are in the title race, maybe we can dream again https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cvg8pv9gqnyo

Maybe. A couple of points from last season to consider.

People stated being in the Champs League screwed up Newcastle's season and it would do the same for us. Currently we are still in it (they were out already I believe) and we have 6 points more then they did at the same point. (Albeit 8 points behind our total last season.)

However if we had matched last seasons form up until now, we would have been joint 2nd with Arsenal, although they might have had three points less that they wouldn't have gained from us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 16, 2025, 10:10:44 PM
Its looking better but we have  afew more testing games coming up so we will know better come the next few games.

We have certainly made it hard for ourselves more than what it needed to be
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 17, 2025, 09:45:48 AM
I am just seeing citehs games after ipswich ouch.

We have a great opportunity to pull away from themin next few weeks if we can get some more form together in the league
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on January 17, 2025, 10:25:39 AM
I just hope that Forest and Newcastle have peaked to early, that Chelsea's slide is permanent, Arsenal are the fragile bottle merchants we all know them to be, Citeh renaissance is short lived and Villas form takes off from here.
Other than that !
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on January 17, 2025, 10:44:58 AM
The current Top 4 and Palace are the only teams better than us over the last 6 league games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 17, 2025, 10:55:44 AM
If we get another one or two in before window shuts i think we have a fantastic chance.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on January 20, 2025, 06:08:21 PM
Latest percentages, let's see how they look after the next 4 or 5 games.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GhvcG6fXUAA80Ik?format=jpg)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on January 26, 2025, 06:50:37 PM
Not unless we win it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on January 26, 2025, 06:52:52 PM
No one is that consistent outside of Liv and Arse and we're not cut adrift so it's still possible if we can manage to go up a gear consistently.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on January 26, 2025, 06:53:14 PM
We are last seasons spurs.  Still in it, but reliant on mother results.  Today was a watershed for me.  If we get into the Europa it’ll have been a decent season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rudy Can't Fail on January 26, 2025, 06:53:31 PM
If CL stands for Conference League we should be there or there about.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on January 26, 2025, 06:58:19 PM
Yeah I can’t see it. That, today, was entirely in keeping with too many displays this year. Play well for a short while and just can’t sustain it. Compounded by poor management at the club selling our back-up centre back without a replacement in place. I think it probably cost us two points, now that gap is growing.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on January 26, 2025, 07:00:59 PM
6th (at best) this year so no. Some of these lads are dead on their feet. We're relying the on the same players to be great twice a week, every week. Think we'll get about 60 points.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on January 26, 2025, 07:01:16 PM
No. Don't deserve to either. We've looked mid table this season. Poor summer recruitment and no rush in January to fill any gaps.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Monty on January 26, 2025, 07:04:44 PM
Aim for the Europa, no shame in that. We're doing better than Newcastle did when they were thrown into the CL. I'd like to be pulling up a few more trees but you also have to be fair and realistic.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: itbrvilla on January 26, 2025, 07:18:44 PM
No. Don't deserve to either. We've looked mid table this season. Poor summer recruitment and no rush in January to fill any gaps.
Yep, the recruitment looks to be worse by the week. Whether forces or not.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: villa for life on January 26, 2025, 08:10:54 PM
Terrible summer business but as Unai said tonight, “it’s a process”

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on January 26, 2025, 08:19:15 PM
Aim for the Europa, no shame in that. We're doing better than Newcastle did when they were thrown into the CL. I'd like to be pulling up a few more trees but you also have to be fair and realistic.

Fail to make CL and you've got Kamara, Watkins, Martínez' etc. agents (probably Rogers' too, the cheeky upstart) touting their clients to teams in Big Cup next season. We don't want another summer of unrest.
I still haven't recovered from Joachim, Ehiougu and Southgate all wanting out in June 2000.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on January 26, 2025, 08:30:32 PM
Doesn't feel like it at the moment. Nowhere near consistent enough and injuries racking up. All we can do is try and not let the gap get too big and hope we go on a run.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 26, 2025, 08:32:18 PM
If we qualified now i think it would be  a bigger achievement  than last season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Goldenballs on January 26, 2025, 08:33:16 PM
We look miles off it performance wise, even though we're surprisingly close on points. Can't see it.

Then we will likely have to sell someone we don't want to.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: olaftab on January 26, 2025, 08:38:22 PM
No. Don't deserve to either. We've looked mid table this season. Poor summer recruitment and no rush in January to fill any gaps.
We have collected 8 points from last 4 League games just keep that up.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eye digress on January 26, 2025, 08:46:26 PM
We’ve yet to go on a run this season, so there’s still a bit of life in us - just - but think the Celtic game is key.

We desperately need some respite from the Weds-weekend-Weds treadmill, and that means Chump’s League. So those two skipped games that a win over Celtic should bring could prove very important.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on January 26, 2025, 08:53:04 PM
No. Don't deserve to either. We've looked mid table this season. Poor summer recruitment and no rush in January to fill any gaps.
We have collected 8 points from last 4 League games if we keep that ratio  for the rest of the season we will have 71 points more than good enough for 4th and easily 5th.

We aren't playing Leicester, Everton, West Ham and Arsenal every 4 weeks...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: olaftab on January 26, 2025, 08:58:34 PM
No. Don't deserve to either. We've looked mid table this season. Poor summer recruitment and no rush in January to fill any gaps.
We have collected 8 points from last 4 League games if we keep that ratio  for the rest of the season we will have 67 points  more than good enough for 5th.

We aren't playing Leicester, Everton, West Ham and Arsenal every 4 weeks...
Yes you are right we are not playing Arsenal every week.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on January 26, 2025, 09:05:49 PM
We’ve yet to go on a run this season, so there’s still a bit of life in us - just - but think the Celtic game is key.

We desperately need some respite from the Weds-weekend-Weds treadmill, and that means Chump’s League. So those two skipped games that a win over Celtic should bring could prove very important.

I think those two extra games i think will determine  how our season goea. If we avoid those two games we get a well earned rest and can take the fa cup more seriously

If we play those two extra games more fatigue and fa cup sacrificed.

We really have to win Wednesday  night and hope one or two results  go our way
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Jon Crofts on January 26, 2025, 09:09:31 PM
Highly unlikely unless something changes dramatically and if we did, without significant investment we’d struggle again.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Monty on January 26, 2025, 09:10:18 PM
Aim for the Europa, no shame in that. We're doing better than Newcastle did when they were thrown into the CL. I'd like to be pulling up a few more trees but you also have to be fair and realistic.

Fail to make CL and you've got Kamara, Watkins, Martínez' etc. agents (probably Rogers' too, the cheeky upstart) touting their clients to teams in Big Cup next season. We don't want another summer of unrest.
I still haven't recovered from Joachim, Ehiougu and Southgate all wanting out in June 2000.

There aren't enough clubs in Europe who would both want and be able to afford them, and the ones that can would be able to sign them from us whether we were in the Big Cup or not. We're not losing Kamara to Napoli or Leverkusen.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ez on January 26, 2025, 09:20:27 PM
Unlikely unless we see a big upturn in performances. A pity really as the opportunity to do so is staring us in the face,   we just aren't taking it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on January 26, 2025, 09:22:18 PM
No chance.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Des Little on January 26, 2025, 09:34:16 PM
Not a prayer. Our defence needs completely rebuilding, we are a bomb scare at the back.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: kippaxvilla2 on January 26, 2025, 09:35:08 PM
Absolutely not.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dorsetvillian on January 26, 2025, 09:38:21 PM
Don't think so. We have been pretty poor in 2024. There are too many other teams playing much better than us, without Europe for us to catch even if we did go on a winning run. Can't see that happening. 7-10 position maybe Conference League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Steve67 on January 26, 2025, 09:40:05 PM
I wouldn't mind another crack at the Conference League because we have knowledge of it and could win it. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on January 26, 2025, 09:41:27 PM
Days like today can make it feel like we're worse than we are. We're unbeaten in 11 at home and our last 10 league games is W5 D3 L2. We need a couple in but it's far from over.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on January 26, 2025, 09:41:50 PM
I think it’s getting more unlikely by the week. We’re not losing much ground but we should have made a lot of ground these last few weeks.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on January 26, 2025, 09:43:03 PM
Not sure where to put this.

2023 was probably the best year I've ever had as a Villa fan. Yes, the 90s were great but 2023 was just exhilarating and came after a period where we were in a renaissance after the horrors of the 2010s.

But 2024 wasn't quite right in some ways, especially off the field. It felt like just as we got a great team and manager we stopped being a classy club off the pitch and communication broke down completely. it definitely put a dampener on what should have been the best of times.

This season has been very stop start. Moments of class and moments of really awful stuff. But keeping within touching distance of where we want to remain. But there has been a bit of a mood around the place, almost like the off the field nonsense is affecting the whole operation. Questions over recruitment and planning (buying left backs galore but ending up down to one fit CB ahead of a massive game FFS) and even the way the tactics are so different from what we saw in the previous seasons.

Hopefully it is just 'one of those seasons' and we fix it in the summer. But I just don't have that feeling of certainty that 'this is it', that I had for the first two years with Emery and that is a bit worrying
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on February 03, 2025, 09:28:01 PM
Bowen and West Ham doing so well but Chelsea have equalised 1-1
There's still all to play for in the league for 4th and 5th
Not only that never know if win the tournament this year given the signings and added experience and quality have.

Up The Villa!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 10, 2025, 09:20:21 AM
I'm trying to not get too carried away, but I think the last part of this season could be very special indeed.  We have added new dimensions to the first team and have serious strength in depth in attacking positions.  If we get the centre halves back soon, I think it could be a season for the ages. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on February 10, 2025, 09:30:37 AM
I'm trying to not get too carried away, but I think the last part of this season could be very special indeed.  We have added new dimensions to the first team and have serious strength in depth in attacking positions.  If we get the centre halves back soon, I think it could be a season for the ages. 

I think that getting through in the top eight has now lifted a lot of the pressure* - it felt like through December / January there was that weight hanging over us and it was playing on their minds.

Even if we do go out in the next round (and there's no reason to think that we will) we've already achieved more in the Champions League this season than most people would have expected us to.

So while not everyone will be as awful as Spurs are, I'd hope to see a return to us playing a bit lighter like we were in the days when the Champions League was a fun thing that was going well, rather than the thing that we were on the verge of chucking away which I think has been an underlying "thing" in our performances since Brugge.

(*usual collapse in the game straight after notwithstanding)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 10, 2025, 09:35:04 AM
Well we look good up top thats definitely  top 5 material. If we can sort the defence out. Why not?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 10, 2025, 09:40:30 AM
I'm trying to not get too carried away, but I think the last part of this season could be very special indeed.  We have added new dimensions to the first team and have serious strength in depth in attacking positions.  If we get the centre halves back soon, I think it could be a season for the ages. 

I think that getting through in the top eight has now lifted a lot of the pressure* - it felt like through December / January there was that weight hanging over us and it was playing on their minds.

Even if we do go out in the next round (and there's no reason to think that we will) we've already achieved more in the Champions League this season than most people would have expected us to.

So while not everyone will be as awful as Spurs are, I'd hope to see a return to us playing a bit lighter like we were in the days when the Champions League was a fun thing that was going well, rather than the thing that we were on the verge of chucking away which I think has been an underlying "thing" in our performances since Brugge.

(*usual collapse in the game straight after notwithstanding)

I reckon you're onto something there.  I just have a feeling it's going to get really interesting.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on February 10, 2025, 09:48:03 AM
I think it all depends on how long it takes for us to get 2 or 3 centrebacks back, fit, and firing.

If we could get to the end of this month and have all four fit and available, I think we're still in with a chance.  Forest have Fulham away next, then they play Newcastle, Arsenal, Man City, Ipswich Man Utd and us.  Although we have Chelsea and Liverpool ourselves in that time, I'd like to think we'll make up significant ground on them in the next 6 games.  That brings them back into the battle for 4/5th rather than being a bit clear in 3rd.

The reality is, we've got to overhaul two of Chelsea, Forest, Newcastle and Man City.  That's a VERY big ask, but not impossible.  And you can't rule our Bournemouth, who are in excellent form and going under the radar a bit.

Right now I'd happily take 6th and qualifying for the Champions League by winning it. :-)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 12, 2025, 09:32:59 AM
This is a big 10 days and i think will determine  whether  we can get top 5 or not. With liverpool and chelsea coming up after ipswich.  If we can get at least 7 points from those 3 we are in with a shout.

Going to be tough to overtake forest who are 10 pts clear of us if we lose to liverpool  playing a game  more
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dick Edwards on February 12, 2025, 09:48:39 AM
We’ll qualify by winning this season’s Champions League so finishing top five won’t be important
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on February 12, 2025, 10:32:31 AM
Dunno, the way Real Madrid can suddenly be so dynamic in attack like at Citeh last night...think they'll have too much for us in the final.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Stinkin_Thinkin on February 12, 2025, 10:49:51 AM
more chance in a one off game to do an 82 style smash and grab than a two legged affair.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on February 12, 2025, 11:27:02 AM
Going back to league position, I reckon we probably need to win 9 out of the last 14. Chelsea, Forest, Newcastle at home six pointers. Really don't know what to make of Citeh, I'm still expecting them to rattle off a winning run truth be told.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on February 12, 2025, 11:44:53 AM
Talking about the FA Cup the winners don’t qualify for the Champions League but the winners of the Europa league do.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: placeforparks on February 12, 2025, 11:59:11 AM
Dunno, the way Real Madrid can suddenly be so dynamic in attack like at Citeh last night...think they'll have too much for us in the final.

think the occasion will be too much for jude...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on February 12, 2025, 12:22:38 PM
Havertz out for the season, so Arsenal dropping down a bit would be nice.

Saka, Jesus, Havertz and Martinelli all out for most of the run-in isn't ideal for them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 12, 2025, 12:24:09 PM
Havertz out for the season, so Arsenal dropping down a bit would be nice.

Saka, Jesus, Havertz and Martinelli all out for most of the run-in isn't ideal for them.

Shame.  I'm sure Arteta will take it gracefully on the chin.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on February 12, 2025, 12:59:35 PM
Havertz out for the season, so Arsenal dropping down a bit would be nice.

Saka, Jesus, Havertz and Martinelli all out for most of the run-in isn't ideal for them.

Shame.  I'm sure Arteta will take it gracefully on the chin.

The press will downplay the impact as well and definitely won't use it as an excuse if Arsenal fall off the pace.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on February 12, 2025, 01:02:03 PM
Won't Havertz being missing mean they might have someone who can finish playing up front?  Hamstring putting him out for four months seems a serious one.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on February 12, 2025, 01:06:25 PM
Won't Havertz being missing mean they might have someone who can finish playing up front?

He's scored three more this season than our highest goal scorer.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on February 12, 2025, 01:11:19 PM
Won't Havertz being missing mean they might have someone who can finish playing up front?

He's scored three more this season than our highest goal scorer.

Yep. He gets an awful lot of the same sort of criticism Ollie gets.  "Not a natural finisher" - "misses too many chances".  Then you look at his numbers when he's played up front, and he does more than okay.

Ollie is better, by some margin, but I do think the criticism he gets is sometimes unwarranted.   It will definitely weaken them.  Unless they happen to have another Nwaneri or Lewis-Skelly who plays up front up their sleeve.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 12, 2025, 01:13:27 PM
Won't Havertz being missing mean they might have someone who can finish playing up front?

He's scored three more this season than our highest goal scorer.

Yep. He gets an awful lot of the same sort of criticism Ollie gets.  "Not a natural finisher" - "misses too many chances".  Then you look at his numbers when he's played up front, and he does more than okay.

Ollie is better, by some margin, but I do think the criticism he gets is sometimes unwarranted.   It will definitely weaken them.  Unless they happen to have another Nwaneri or Lewis-Skelly who plays up front up their sleeve.

Maybe they'll be allowed to sign Arshavin.  It's only a couple of weeks sine the window slammed shut after all.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on February 12, 2025, 01:22:38 PM
Won't Havertz being missing mean they might have someone who can finish playing up front?

He's scored three more this season than our highest goal scorer.

Yep. He gets an awful lot of the same sort of criticism Ollie gets.  "Not a natural finisher" - "misses too many chances".  Then you look at his numbers when he's played up front, and he does more than okay.

Ollie is better, by some margin, but I do think the criticism he gets is sometimes unwarranted.   It will definitely weaken them.  Unless they happen to have another Nwaneri or Lewis-Skelly who plays up front up their sleeve.

It's not the same for me because Ollie looks like a striker but sometimes struggles with his finishing. Havertz just isn't really a striker, all his best work comes when he acts more like an attacking midfielder.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on February 12, 2025, 01:25:59 PM
Won't Havertz being missing mean they might have someone who can finish playing up front?

He's scored three more this season than our highest goal scorer.

He has also played 500 more minutes then Ollie this season across all competitions, and 200 more in the league then him. 7% less shot accuracy as well in the league. And even as an attacking midfielder, he has less assists then Ollie as well.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Baldy on February 12, 2025, 01:52:57 PM
Get a 'settled' defence and a bit of continuity and we will qualify for the CL this year.

Otherwise, no.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on February 12, 2025, 02:18:32 PM
Won't Havertz being missing mean they might have someone who can finish playing up front?

He's scored three more this season than our highest goal scorer.

Yep. He gets an awful lot of the same sort of criticism Ollie gets.  "Not a natural finisher" - "misses too many chances".  Then you look at his numbers when he's played up front, and he does more than okay.

Ollie is better, by some margin, but I do think the criticism he gets is sometimes unwarranted.   It will definitely weaken them.  Unless they happen to have another Nwaneri or Lewis-Skelly who plays up front up their sleeve.

Maybe they'll be allowed to sign Arshavin.  It's only a couple of weeks sine the window slammed shut after all.

I always read that as Arse Shavin'
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on February 12, 2025, 02:20:59 PM
Won't Havertz being missing mean they might have someone who can finish playing up front?

He's scored three more this season than our highest goal scorer.

He has also played 500 more minutes then Ollie this season across all competitions, and 200 more in the league then him. 7% less shot accuracy as well in the league. And even as an attacking midfielder, he has less assists then Ollie as well.

None of that makes Havertz a bad player.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 13, 2025, 07:54:43 AM
Jackson out until april thats gotta be good news for us and helps us maybe
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on February 13, 2025, 08:34:11 AM
We need 3 /4 from Citeh Bournemouth Newcastle Forest Chelsea to blow up and us to start not conceding 2 goals a game.
Unlikely.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on February 13, 2025, 08:42:56 AM
We need 3 /4 from Citeh Bournemouth Newcastle Forest Chelsea to blow up and us to start not conceding 2 goals a game.
Unlikely.


The only one we'd need to "blow up" would be Forest. The gap to the others isn't large at this stage of the season, particularly as we've still got to play them all.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on February 13, 2025, 08:43:49 AM
Hopefully have some CBs back for Chelsea and Liverpool games....
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 13, 2025, 08:47:27 AM
If we're in contention come the end of March and the new signings are having the impact I think they will, with both Forest and Newcastle to play at VP, I know who I'd be backing. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 13, 2025, 08:58:52 AM
Barkley back in training this week apparently that will help another body back
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brend'Watkins on February 13, 2025, 11:50:12 AM
Forest have been reasonably lucky with injuries. If that changes? 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 13, 2025, 12:23:29 PM
Forest have been reasonably lucky with injuries. If that changes?

I think if gibbs white picks up a injury it could change for them. He is like grealish was for us. They do have some other talents like elanga and wood though so hard to know fir sure unless it happens
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TelfordVilla on February 13, 2025, 12:44:19 PM
Just swap the first 2 words of this thread title. It's nailed on.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on February 15, 2025, 05:09:07 PM
Not unless we win it.

Still think this. Via the league it's gone.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: CT Villan on February 15, 2025, 05:10:06 PM
Not unless we win it.

Still think this. Via the league it's gone.

Agreed, sadly.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 15, 2025, 05:10:54 PM
Unless we beat Liverpool  and chelsea back to back ti keep us in it there is no chance via league

We had a great opportunity  to close the gap today and we blew it - yet again
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on February 15, 2025, 05:11:47 PM
Absolutely no chance - in the league this season our position is reflective of what we’ve been playing like, a mid-table side. We’ll be very lucky to get European football full stop.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on February 15, 2025, 05:15:58 PM
Forest, Chelsea and Newcastle have all lost 2 of their last 3 and yet our last 3 games means we dropped a further point behind them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on February 15, 2025, 05:16:12 PM
Were too inconsistent, so nope. Maybe another 20 points between now and the end of the season so 58 points and about 9th-8th. Playing that slow laborious shite we do 80% of the time, we don't deserve to.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 15, 2025, 05:19:31 PM
Lets be honest Bournemouth, forest and Newcastle  deserve it more than we do this season on league performances.  These two in league have been poor and thwy were two of the shittest teams in the league
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on February 15, 2025, 05:21:39 PM
We're still in touching distance. It's been stop-start all season in the league but what gives me a glimmer of hope is the ability of Rashford and Asensio. If they start games and can have similar impact to their sub cameos so far, I think that'll win us games.

But it's annoying that we might have to take some scalps (i.e Liverpool next week, Citeh away who will probably have their act together) to finish top five when on paper we've thrown away points against weaker teams than us in recent weeks.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Small Rodent on February 15, 2025, 05:22:45 PM
Nay, nay, and thrice nay.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SamTheMouse on February 15, 2025, 05:26:55 PM
We're still in touching distance. It's been stop-start all season in the league but what gives me a glimmer of hope is the ability of Rashford and Asensio. If they start games and can have similar impact to their sub cameos so far, I think that'll win us games.

You'd hope so, but they're going to struggle if Emery starts them with strict instructions not to break into anything more than a light jog until the 65th minute.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: itbrvilla on February 15, 2025, 05:39:57 PM
We're still in touching distance. It's been stop-start all season in the league but what gives me a glimmer of hope is the ability of Rashford and Asensio. If they start games and can have similar impact to their sub cameos so far, I think that'll win us games.

You'd hope so, but they're going to struggle if Emery starts them with strict instructions not to break into anything more than a light jog until the 65th minute.
The lack of speed, directness and intensity has been out biggest issue and that's a tactical choice by the manager.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 15, 2025, 05:40:58 PM
When we’re a couple of wins away from it I won’t give up
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on February 15, 2025, 05:44:05 PM
No.

The football is turgid, slow rubbish far too often, like a really low quality Man City.

The defence is more often than not laughably poor and almost everyone scores against us.

We can’t play against lesser bus-parking sides because we don’t really seem to know what to do, and when we do create chances, more often than not we don’t take them.

It is hard to believe we recently won fifteen home games in a row because this season, in the league, I never feel comfortable we will win.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Stu on February 15, 2025, 05:50:38 PM
We're just going to have to win it lads
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rougegorge on February 15, 2025, 06:07:19 PM
We won't make the top five and we may miss out on Europe altogether at this rate.

Bear in mind we have played 5 of the bottom 7 twice already. Given the opposition, just two points from the last three games has been really costly.


Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on February 15, 2025, 06:27:31 PM
Today I gave up hope.  I thought beating Ipswich and Chelsea would have put us in the mix but clearly they didn’t failed at the first hurdle.

I really hope we get Europe as worried where that will leave us.  Shame really as I think this year will be one of the easiest years to get UCL.

But all season we have been putting in sub par performances - and have been too easy to score against and miss too many chances
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ez on February 15, 2025, 07:14:31 PM
Can't see it now. Beating Ipswich isn't difficult but we failed to do it. It's all about the cups now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DB on February 15, 2025, 07:24:31 PM
No, unless the new signings can change things. We have been same all season, poor defence (lack of clean sheets) and inconsistent - typical mid-table side.
There are 2 up for grabs, hoping for Chelsea, Forest and Newcastle to drop off and us to pick up, big ask.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: BoVillan esq on February 15, 2025, 08:01:03 PM
I think the next few games will make or break the season, had today gone well then I think a top 5 place was very attainable, the fact that we can put in a performance like that it this point in the season probably says we are better out of it, which is a great pity when you consider the squad.

if we beat Liverpool and Chelsea, both possible, then we are right back in there
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on February 15, 2025, 08:03:19 PM
Well, all I can say is that I don’t know who Bayern Munich’s striker is, but he must be fucking shit if he can’t score against us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: wince on February 15, 2025, 08:06:48 PM
We needed 6 pts from wolves and Ipswich and got 1. No way are we beating Liverpool and Chelsea
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 15, 2025, 08:11:47 PM
We’re more likely to beat Chelsea and Liverpool.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 15, 2025, 08:24:13 PM
We’re more likely to beat Chelsea and Liverpool.

Yeah, wouldn't surprise me at all. I'd be pretty happy with 4 points from them, followed by victory at Palace.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 15, 2025, 08:34:47 PM
We’re more likely to beat Chelsea and Liverpool.

Based on ? If we cant beat ten man ipswich  how on earth will we beat liverpool !
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on February 15, 2025, 08:53:59 PM
We’re more likely to beat Chelsea and Liverpool.

Based on ? If we cant beat ten man ipswich  how on earth will we beat liverpool !
The shape of the game will be entirely different. We struggle with teams who park the bus.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 15, 2025, 09:31:41 PM
We’re more likely to beat Chelsea and Liverpool.

Based on ? If we cant beat ten man ipswich  how on earth will we beat liverpool !
The shape of the game will be entirely different. We struggle with teams who park the bus.


I remember  last season luton tried it and we tore them apart. Even if they park the bus we have enough quality esp with ten men to win this game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on February 15, 2025, 09:39:07 PM
We’re more likely to beat Chelsea and Liverpool.

Based on ? If we cant beat ten man ipswich  how on earth will we beat liverpool !

Because it doesn't work like that, and you know it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on February 15, 2025, 09:42:50 PM
We’re more likely to beat Chelsea and Liverpool.

Based on ? If we cant beat ten man ipswich  how on earth will we beat liverpool !
The shape of the game will be entirely different. We struggle with teams who park the bus.


I remember  last season luton tried it and we tore them apart. Even if they park the bus we have enough quality esp with ten men to win this game.

And Sheffield tried it and succeeded as well.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on February 15, 2025, 10:56:35 PM
Last orders in the last chance saloon.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on February 16, 2025, 02:02:42 AM
We've been spoilt by the CL games this year (apart from the £97 admission prices, obvs) but it will be so gutting not to be in it next season.

I'd rather not be in the Conference, we tried it and it wasn't for us. It's for Blose teams. The Europa League isn't too bad but it's still beneath us too.
We need to keep dining at that top table so pass the vol-au-vents and let's just win Big Cup if that's what we gotta do to be in it again.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on February 16, 2025, 02:22:53 AM
I absolutely want to be in the CL, but the Europa League being beneath us is a bit too far. Maybe if we had been in the CL for 5 plus years on the bounce but beneath us? Now? Not a chance. And with Emery's record in it I doubt he would think so.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ROBBO on February 16, 2025, 04:43:51 AM
Liverpool especially will come at us, which to me is an advantage, we struggle against packed defences.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: BC Villain on February 16, 2025, 06:36:28 AM
We won't make the top five and we may miss out on Europe altogether at this rate.

Bear in mind we have played 5 of the bottom 7 twice already. Given the opposition, just two points from the last three games has been really costly.

We're in touching distance because of Duran.  Take his goals away we would be 16th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 16, 2025, 08:27:21 AM
We've been spoilt by the CL games this year (apart from the £97 admission prices, obvs) but it will be so gutting not to be in it next season.

I'd rather not be in the Conference, we tried it and it wasn't for us. It's for Blose teams. The Europa League isn't too bad but it's still beneath us too.
We need to keep dining at that top table so pass the vol-au-vents and let's just win Big Cup if that's what we gotta do to be in it again.

I dont agree mate ww cant start thinking european competitions are beneath us. I dont care what competition  we are if it means we are more likely to win a trophy
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rougegorge on February 16, 2025, 08:32:19 AM
We only have one 'easy' fixture left at Southampton and unless we somehow have a transformation at the back and stop conceding,  the prospect is very unlikely.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on February 16, 2025, 09:12:49 AM
We've been mediocre in the league for two thirds of the season now. 21 points in the last 17 equates to nearly 47 points over a season, which is Gerrardesque in truth. Bit mad we've stayed in touch as long as we have but that's slipping away now. As others have mentioned, this is our "easy" portion of the calendar and we've fucked it. So very glass half empty today.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 16, 2025, 10:45:48 AM
We've been mediocre in the league for two thirds of the season now. 21 points in the last 17 equates to nearly 47 points over a season, which is Gerrardesque in truth. Bit mad we've stayed in touch as long as we have but that's slipping away now. As others have mentioned, this is our "easy" portion of the calendar and we've fucked it. So very glass half empty today.

I understand the sentiment, especially after yesterday's wasting of another chance to put pressure on the sides above us, but we're talking a couple of wins and we're back in amongst it.  If we do get 5th now, it will be doing it the hard way.  But that is also known as the Villa way, so it's possible.  Beat Liverpool and Chelsea, and it's back on in my mind.  Draw or lose both and let's just focus on the cups we're still in.

I think next season's Villa will look quite different to the one this season regardless of which European cup we're in.  So, if we miss out on CL, so be it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Goldenballs on February 16, 2025, 10:54:47 AM
This time next weekend we'll likely be closer to Man Utd/Spurs, than 5th.

Unless we go on an unlikely looking winning run, we're not getting Champions league next season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on February 16, 2025, 10:57:06 AM
Citeh are having a terrible season and are 6 points ahead of us.
Unless we win the next 2 then forget it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on February 16, 2025, 12:03:15 PM
Starting to feel like winning the European Cup is our best chance of playing in it next season now!

In honesty, I think it’s not totally beyond us, but I’m not expecting it now. UEFA Cup seems about the highest level we’ve got a realistic chance of qualifying for, Conference League more likely again.

Would really rather we be playing in Europe next season though in whatever competition we can. It’d be a huge step backwards if we weren’t to have European football at all.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: olaftab on February 16, 2025, 12:07:16 PM
Every time Chelsea, Newcastle and Forest sneeze instead of throwing pepper in their direction we hand them a tissue. We have blown our chances well and good now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 16, 2025, 12:10:30 PM
Starting to feel like winning the European Cup is our best chance of playing in it next season now!

In honesty, I think it’s not totally beyond us, but I’m not expecting it now. UEFA Cup seems about the highest level we’ve got a realistic chance of qualifying for, Conference League more likely again.

Would really rather we be playing in Europe next season though in whatever competition we can. It’d be a huge step backwards if we weren’t to have European football at all.

I'm not sure about how arsed I am about playing in the Conference League again to be honest.  I know that's heresy for a lot of people, but do the benefits of playing in that competition outweigh the distraction from trying to qualify for the CL again?  Not sure.  Europa League, yes to that though.   
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on February 16, 2025, 12:12:29 PM
Every time Chelsea, Newcastle and Forest sneeze instead of throwing pepper in their direction we hand them a tissue. We have blown our chances well and good now.

Why have we? Still a long way to go.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: olaftab on February 16, 2025, 12:27:17 PM
I'm not sure about how arsed I am about playing in the Conference League again to be honest.  I know that's heresy for a lot of people, but do the benefits of playing in that competition outweigh the distraction from trying to qualify for the CL again?  Not sure.  Europa League, yes to that though.   
I can't believe you and some others have this opinion about  Conf League. Two things to remember:
1. We qualified for Champ League whilst playing in the Conf.
2. We MUST get used to the drum beat of playing mid week European football so it's necessary that we are involved in any of the 3 competitions. The involvement builds and hardens our squad.
Anyway this "distraction" thing is crap. I am not where it has worked well with successful clubs?
The negative is that we stop rolling for a bit by either losing better players or not being able to add top quality.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tony Daleys Shorts on February 16, 2025, 12:36:31 PM
The reason Unai prioritises the league is he knows the importance on qualifying for European competition year in year out.

Next season will suck if we have no European football.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 16, 2025, 12:58:07 PM
I'm not sure about how arsed I am about playing in the Conference League again to be honest.  I know that's heresy for a lot of people, but do the benefits of playing in that competition outweigh the distraction from trying to qualify for the CL again?  Not sure.  Europa League, yes to that though.   
I can't believe you and some others have this opinion about  Conf League. Two things to remember:
1. We qualified for Champ League whilst playing in the Conf.
2. We MUST get used to the drum beat of playing mid week European football so it's necessary that we are involved in any of the 3 competitions. The involvement builds and hardens our squad.
Anyway this "distraction" thing is crap. I am not where it has worked well with successful clubs?
The negative is that we stop rolling for a bit by either losing better players or not being able to add top quality.

I agree olaftab. We could just play a 2nd team for group stage in conference. Now its the big  league format we will play some very poor sides so we can afford to rotate more than the CL.

I would be ok playing in the conference to be honest and as you say we did get 4th playing in that competition so i am ok with  it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on February 16, 2025, 01:01:14 PM
Has anyone done one of those simulators to see how many points we'll likely get or even how many points 5th place will need this season? Could it be low 60s? If so, we still have a chance. Rashford and Asensio have been brought in to be match winners for us and I'm confident they will be.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 16, 2025, 03:32:05 PM
I'm not sure about how arsed I am about playing in the Conference League again to be honest.  I know that's heresy for a lot of people, but do the benefits of playing in that competition outweigh the distraction from trying to qualify for the CL again?  Not sure.  Europa League, yes to that though.   
I can't believe you and some others have this opinion about  Conf League. Two things to remember:
1. We qualified for Champ League whilst playing in the Conf.
2. We MUST get used to the drum beat of playing mid week European football so it's necessary that we are involved in any of the 3 competitions. The involvement builds and hardens our squad.
Anyway this "distraction" thing is crap. I am not where it has worked well with successful clubs?
The negative is that we stop rolling for a bit by either losing better players or not being able to add top quality.


Like I said, I know it’s not a popular opinion! I think it is a distraction playing in Eastern Europe on a Thursday evening.  We need to be in Europe I agree, but in CL or if not, Europa. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Goldenballs on February 16, 2025, 04:22:06 PM
From twitter.

With 13 games left to play and 39 points to fight for, here are the average points totals from the last 10 Premier League seasons for positions 5th-8th and what #AVFC require to meet them...

5th - 68pts [30pts]
6th - 63pts [25pts]
7th - 59pts [21pts]
8th - 55pts [17pts]
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on February 16, 2025, 04:31:37 PM
I think we can safely say if that played out it’s not going to be better that 7th and that’s optimistic.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: wince on February 16, 2025, 05:21:07 PM
So if we write off a push this year, and go all out for next year for the league, whats to say that we will be any better?

It is nice being this end of the table than the bottom but is it PSR hamstringing us or is our manager too technical for the players we have? Not criticism of Unai at all but the form has been inconsistent for a year now. We are capable of playing well but where is the fluidity all of the time rather than the ponderous slow play from the back then inevitably gift a goal?

What jars me is the club off the pitch gave it the charlie big bollocks about being back where we belong but we have not shown this at all this season and unless we win the CL (unlikely) I worry about us keeping what top players we have or attracting new players to us.

It is almost futile to compete when the drawbridge has been pulled up but I would love for us to be top 4 consistently. Nottingham are doing what we did last season so will be interesting how they cope next season if they get CL football.

Just really pissed off we cant sustain CL and push higher up rather than getting rinsed by gash teams like Ipswich or Wolves as I thought the days of us being a points fairy were behind us. But here we are again there for strikers on a bad patch, teams not winning for 4 on the bounce or making average players look world class. Just really frustrating as it is proving last season was an exception not the rule and hoping Emery can turn this around and turn these draws into a win as these draws are feeling like defeats and points dropped. Win a few of those draws and the position looks better but we seem to only have a single half in us and concede, we look so fragile.

 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on February 16, 2025, 05:25:49 PM
Think we will end on 57 points and wherever that gets us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: RamboandBruno on February 16, 2025, 05:30:56 PM
Think we will end on 57 points and wherever that gets us.
I think thats probably about right.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on February 16, 2025, 08:07:11 PM
Think we will end on 57 points and wherever that gets us.
I think thats probably about right.
Agree, which represents our points per game ratio this season.
No where near enough for CL and will struggle to get Europa.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 17, 2025, 09:00:55 PM
With 13 games left to play and 39 points to fight for, here are the average points totals from the last 10 Premier League seasons for positions 5th-8th and what #AVFC require to meet them...

5th - 68pts [30pts]
6th - 63pts [25pts]
7th - 59pts [21pts]
8th - 55pts [17pts]

Interesting stuff, but I wonder if 5th (and 6th) totals might end up being a bit lower this season. There's currently not much between 4th and 10th spots with many of those teams taking points off each other.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on February 17, 2025, 10:10:30 PM
With 13 games left to play and 39 points to fight for, here are the average points totals from the last 10 Premier League seasons for positions 5th-8th and what #AVFC require to meet them...

5th - 68pts [30pts]
6th - 63pts [25pts]
7th - 59pts [21pts]
8th - 55pts [17pts]

Interesting stuff, but I wonder if 5th (and 6th) totals might end up being a bit lower this season. There's currently not much between 4th and 10th spots with many of those teams taking points off each other.

I agree, I think it's going to be on the low end.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on February 17, 2025, 10:13:17 PM
Nice hypothesis but we would also be part of that logic . We've not done enough all season for top 5 and I don't see it changing .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on February 17, 2025, 10:17:22 PM
I'm sure BV hadn't thought of that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on February 19, 2025, 09:40:45 PM
Not unless we win it.

Still think this. Via the league it's gone.

Still this.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on February 19, 2025, 09:42:53 PM
I’d agree - good performance but we need a lot of wins realistically and I can’t see it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on February 19, 2025, 09:43:47 PM
No, but we'll win the FA Cup and get in the Europa League. This is our year, 100%
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 19, 2025, 09:48:39 PM
No, but we'll win the FA Cup and get in the Europa League. This is our year, 100%

Id be delighted with that
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on February 19, 2025, 10:02:03 PM
No, but we'll win the FA Cup and get in the Europa League. This is our year, 100%

Id be delighted with that

Me too tbh.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on February 19, 2025, 10:35:32 PM
No.

Upward progression is not going to be continually in the right direction, there are going to be setbacks, seasons not quite as good in the league as those before, we have to accept that.

Sometimes, though, we show we can be as exhilarating as we were last season. When we are anywhere near our best, we can beat anyone, it is just frustrating that we don't see it more often this season, but if you're looking for a consolation, being in the last 16 of the CL and having managed a rare progression past the 3rd round of the FAC is good.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: itbrvilla on February 19, 2025, 10:40:02 PM
7 point from the last 6 games is appalling given some of the opposition we've faced. We'll lose some key players this summer that's for sure and take another step backwards.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on February 19, 2025, 10:41:46 PM
We needed 7 points from the 3 home games.
The Ipswich game was a complete fuck up, it’s happened too many times to make top 4/5.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: brontebilly on February 19, 2025, 10:53:25 PM
Beat Chelsea and we are back in the mix. City and Forest are going to come back into the pack so low 60s will get top 5 I think

7 or 8 wins needed from 12, don't see us hitting that kind of consistent performance level.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Matt C on February 19, 2025, 11:48:55 PM
CL is beyond us but the main thing now is to make sure we qualify for European football again - we need to start making that a regular fixture again.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on February 20, 2025, 12:31:31 AM
Will just add that 5th is pretty much guaranteed a CL spot this season, but because of the points being divided across more teams, it might not be for following season. So we really need to lift ourselves for the season end and the run-in, or actually win the bugger to get in it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on February 20, 2025, 12:33:52 AM
I could live with qualifying for the Europa League, while being managed by the Europa League's greatest ever manager.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tuscans on February 21, 2025, 04:02:11 PM
Nasty lot of remaining league fixtures, Southampton aside.

22: Chelsea (h)

25: Crystal Palace (a)

March

8: Brentford (a)

15: Liverpool (h)

April

1: Brighton (a)

5: Nottingham Forest (h)

12: Southampton (a)

19: Newcastle (h)

26: Man City (a)

May

3: Fulham (h)

10: Bournemouth (a)

18: Tottenham (h)

25: Man Utd (a)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: itbrvilla on February 21, 2025, 04:11:02 PM
Nasty lot of remaining league fixtures, Southampton aside.

22: Chelsea (h)

25: Crystal Palace (a)

March

8: Brentford (a)

15: Liverpool (h)

April

1: Brighton (a)

5: Nottingham Forest (h)

12: Southampton (a)

19: Newcastle (h)

26: Man City (a)

May

3: Fulham (h)

10: Bournemouth (a)

18: Tottenham (h)

25: Man Utd (a)

We've already played Liverpool twice
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 21, 2025, 04:17:50 PM
The fact that we are playing s many of the teams above and around us is actually a good thing.  Loads of 6 pointers.  Win enough of them and we can do it. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 21, 2025, 04:42:46 PM
Nasty lot of remaining league fixtures, Southampton aside.

22: Chelsea (h)

25: Crystal Palace (a)

March

8: Brentford (a)

15: Liverpool (h)

April

1: Brighton (a)

5: Nottingham Forest (h)

12: Southampton (a)

19: Newcastle (h)

26: Man City (a)

May

3: Fulham (h)

10: Bournemouth (a)

18: Tottenham (h)

25: Man Utd (a)

Dont think its that bad to be honest
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tuscans on February 21, 2025, 05:38:36 PM
Nasty lot of remaining league fixtures, Southampton aside.

22: Chelsea (h)

25: Crystal Palace (a)

March

8: Brentford (a)

15: Liverpool (h)

April

1: Brighton (a)

5: Nottingham Forest (h)

12: Southampton (a)

19: Newcastle (h)

26: Man City (a)

May

3: Fulham (h)

10: Bournemouth (a)

18: Tottenham (h)

25: Man Utd (a)

We've already played Liverpool twice
Ah, Sky that is, copy and pasted.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on February 21, 2025, 05:40:55 PM
Saints aside , the away games all look tricky given our away form.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 21, 2025, 05:41:50 PM
Saints aside , the away games all look tricky given our away form.

He who dares wins, Coopers. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: N'ZMAV on February 21, 2025, 05:43:23 PM
we';; click soon, like, properly click. We'll get into Europe.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 21, 2025, 05:43:26 PM
Saints aside , the away games all look tricky given our away form.

He who dares wins, Coopers. 

Audere est Facere, aș Tim is oft to say.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: N'ZMAV on February 21, 2025, 05:43:38 PM
we'll click soon, like, properly click. We'll get into Europe.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: trinityoap on February 21, 2025, 07:12:42 PM
Do we qualify automatically for next season if we win it this year? Seem to recall they changed the rules for Liverpool a few years ago.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on February 21, 2025, 07:17:05 PM
Winners qualify if they don't already qualify from league position. Europa winners qualify if they don't already qualify from league position.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on February 21, 2025, 08:37:13 PM
we';; click soon, like, properly click. We'll get into Europe.

I’ve been saying that since Christmas, it’s not happened yet and the games are running out.
Hopefully the January signing and returning injured players will see it happen.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on February 21, 2025, 08:43:22 PM
6 points from the next 2 games would restore some belief . Big ask but not beyond us .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on February 22, 2025, 02:57:38 PM
No. At least not through the league. I’ll be happy with Europa League at this point.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dante Lavelli on February 22, 2025, 04:04:12 PM
A few six pointers in that fixture list.  Likelihood is a strong no, but could be a rollercoaster.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on February 22, 2025, 04:23:05 PM
it would be nice to at least be in 7th position tonight.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on February 22, 2025, 07:37:08 PM
We're 1 point off a CL place.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on February 22, 2025, 07:38:15 PM
5 points between 4th and 10th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on February 22, 2025, 07:42:22 PM
Midweek games for CL contenders

Brighton v Bournemouth
Palace v Villa
Wolves v Fulham
Chelsea v Saints
Forest v Arsenal
Spurs v Man City
Liverpool v Newcastle

And a relegarion 6 pointer
ManU v Ipswich
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on February 22, 2025, 07:52:13 PM
Yes
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on February 22, 2025, 07:53:32 PM
Follow up with a win at palace please and the dream is back on .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 22, 2025, 07:55:10 PM
Follow up with a win at palace please and the dream is back on .

Especially with some of the other fixtures, we'd be right back in the mix.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on February 22, 2025, 07:58:30 PM
It was a critical game for us to win to keep us in the hunt.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on February 22, 2025, 08:00:41 PM
Before this little run of home games I thought 7 points would've been excellent and made us a safe bet for the top 5 but that 5 was the minimum we needed to keep ourselves in it and, in that case, Chelsea was the most important one to win.

With the other results today I think we have to be happy with where things are because we look like we're getting better as the new additions settle in, and a few of the sides around us look like they could have a wobble.

We just need some centre backs and centre mids to get fit and I can see us finishing the season strongly.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DrGonzo on February 22, 2025, 08:02:04 PM
I believe the confidence of "We are going to score one more than you", will see us finish 5th. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TelfordVilla on February 22, 2025, 08:03:44 PM
Got to beat Bournemouth, Forest, Newcastle and Brighton
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on February 22, 2025, 08:06:10 PM
Got to beat Bournemouth, Forest, Newcastle and Brighton

I'd be happy with 8 points from that lot and think it would be enough.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on February 22, 2025, 08:07:58 PM
Given our form hasn't been great in the last 10 games, the fact that we're just a point off a Champions League place is incredible.  You have to think we're likely to string a few wins together at some point, and if we do, I think we'll be right in the mix.  I think 5th is still on, though 4th might be difficult (unless Forest really fall away).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on February 22, 2025, 08:19:25 PM
Dolly was right, we're fickle as feck (football fans generally, not just Villans). After the crappy draw with Ipswich last week, it was deflating but we were still only 5 points off top five. Now it's just one albeit having played an extra game - but that was against the champions elect and it's out of the way whereas most of our rivals still have play them.

We had five competitors left to play, three at home. We've now played one of them and won. Newcastle and Forest have to come to us and we have to go to Bournemouth and Citeh.

A couple of wins and a draw from that lot will give us a great chance.
As long as we don't lose these six-pointers and start beating the teams lower down, we have every chance.

Rashford and Asensio have specifically been brought in to be match winners. They've won us one, they'll win us a handful more, I'm sure (Ollie and Morgz will look after the rest).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Astnor on February 22, 2025, 08:45:41 PM
By the look of it now its between us, Newcastle, City and Forest. Hoping for a draw between Newcastle and Forest tomorrow and that City dont beat Lpool.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on February 22, 2025, 08:58:51 PM
I’ll be the most delighted if I am proven wrong in my post thinking we cannot do it via the league. But we have been far too inconsistent this season. If we can correct that and get on any kind of run of games where we don’t give away daft goals then we will have a great chance of qualifying. It’s very compact 4th through 10th or so.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 22, 2025, 09:09:08 PM
If we knew how to defend im 99.9% certain we would have qualified easy. Thats our achilles heel
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on February 22, 2025, 11:26:42 PM
We need the result against Palace now. Get 3 points there and I'm definitely more hopeful as most of our rivals are playing 6 pointers (apart from Chelsea who have Southampton).

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on February 23, 2025, 09:57:05 AM
We’re probably going to need to win 8 of remaining games I think.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on February 23, 2025, 10:09:02 AM
If we knew how to defend im 99.9% certain we would have qualified easy. Thats our achilles heel

Whilst you have a point, the defensive injuries we have haven't helped. Not only that, we have two defensive midfielders out too. We've done extremely well to still begin the mix.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 23, 2025, 10:11:46 AM
Got to beat Bournemouth, Forest, Newcastle and Brighton

I'd be happy with 8 points from that lot and think it would be enough.

I'd back us against anybody when we're at our best. It's mad that we haven't hit our stride yet this season (in the PL at least) and that there is probably another gear we can go up.   
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on February 23, 2025, 10:35:21 AM
Our problem is our away form has been terrible. I think the next two league games will tell us a lot. 4 or 6 points and we’re right in it, anything less and we’ll be struggling I think.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TelfordVilla on February 23, 2025, 10:55:37 AM
Once again, all the teams ahead of us will be looking in their rear view mirrors and seeing the lion roaring up towards them
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on February 23, 2025, 10:59:21 AM
To give ourselves a real chance we need to start strongly in some games and basically have the game put to bed by half time. Our goal difference speaks to this, but I can barely think of any comfortable wins this season. That just brings pressure and is more draining. It’s not going to come from defensive stability I don’t think, we’re just going to have to bang in the goals.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 23, 2025, 12:05:03 PM
It's not if we'll qualify, it's how many games will be left in the season when we do. 8)

On a more serious note, we're 25/1 to finish top 4 and 3/1 to finish top 6. By contrast, Chelsea are evens to finish top 4 and 1/9 on to finish top 6. I know where I'd put my money.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eye digress on February 23, 2025, 12:06:12 PM
We've somehow managed to relocate the right track, but are still in the foothills of this particular journey.

We will need to show the kind of form we mustered at the end of Unai's first season. And surely we can't go the entire season without a purple patch?

Will 63, 64 points do it, given the attritional nature of the league this year? 7 wins, a couple of draws enough?

I'm convinced that Bournemouth will fall out of the picture, and Forest too - applying the same logic as above, surely they can't go the entire season without a sticky patch?

So it's us, Citeh, Chelsea and the Jaudis fighting it out for 3 (hopefully) spots.

Yes, that's the Jaudis who (if you believe the press) are back and a force to be reckoned with now. They'll likely be above us by the end of today, but when they come to Villa Park, we must be straining every sinew to ensure that they are within striking distance. Then, everything is possible.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on February 23, 2025, 12:07:17 PM
It's not if we'll qualify, it's how many games will be left in the season when we do. 8)

On a more serious note, we're 25/1 to finish top 4 and 3/1 to finish top 6. By contrast, Chelsea are evens to finish top 4 and 1/9 on to finish top 6. I know where I'd put my money.

That must mean the odds on us finishing above Chelsea are pretty good.  Might be worth a bob or two.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 23, 2025, 12:11:24 PM
We've somehow managed to relocate the right track, but are still in the foothills of this particular journey.

Maybe, but I'm feeling more confident now that we have Andes García and Marco Ascentsio.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on February 23, 2025, 12:21:27 PM
Points on the board is better then possible points with games in hand, but we have played one more then our rivals (and two in some cases until tonight). And 4 points against Plop and Chelsea means nothing if we don't get 4-6 against Palace and Brentford. If we can be in the mix and get Torres, Kamara, Barkley and Onana back and firing, the fixture pile-up at the end of the season shouldn't affect us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eye digress on February 23, 2025, 12:24:13 PM
Not to mention Ural Tielemans.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 23, 2025, 12:31:34 PM
We have four away games in next 5 its now or nevee for us to improve  our away form

The one goid thing about that is that teams wont sit back as much as at home and that tends to help us be at our best
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Andy_Lochhead_in_the_air on February 23, 2025, 06:27:17 PM
11 games to go.
We still have to play Man City, Newcastle, Forest & Bournemouth who are all in our sights to chase down.
We are finished with Liverpool and Arsenal, but still have Southampton.
Last two games are Spurs and Man U who will have nothing to play for.

Tuesday..While we are at Palace, Bournemouth go to Brighton, Chelsea at home to Southampton.
Wednesday...Forest home to Arsenal, Man City go to Spurs, Newcastle go to Liverpool.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on February 23, 2025, 06:32:05 PM
I'd like

Liverpool win
Spurs win
Arsenal Win
Bourn/Brighton draw
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on February 23, 2025, 08:12:46 PM
I'd like

Liverpool win
Spurs win
Arsenal Win
Bourn/Brighton draw


A cheeky point for Southampton would be nice as well.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on February 23, 2025, 08:30:00 PM
Been a good weekend for us but it's time to stop relying on others to slip up and for the team to start putting a run together they more than capable of it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: brontebilly on February 23, 2025, 08:32:38 PM
With relegation and the title race sewn up, there might be a lot of mid table teams and players heading for the beach earlier than usual this summer. Might be lots of surprise results in the final weeks.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV84 on February 23, 2025, 08:33:49 PM
There's a couple of games coming up where other challengers can take points off each other, a few draws would be perfect, but none of it matters if we can't win games. And given the extra ones we have to fit in too, it'd be nice to start winning some comfortably.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on February 23, 2025, 08:42:29 PM
We need to keep maximum (or with 2 dropped at most) until our rest week.

We then have a rest and can watch
Ipswich v Forest
Citeh v Brighton
Bournemouth v Brentford
Arse v Chelsea
Fulham v Spurs.

As a bonus watch, it is Liverpool v Newcastle in the final which puts extra fixture pressure on Newcastle in the tail-end (game in hand is Crystal Palace) AND the result of which might flummox their season which has happened in the past.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on February 23, 2025, 08:42:55 PM
Table looks better than it has for a while but still feels like we haven't got much margin for error, at least 7 wins from 11 with not many easy fixtures left.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Stinkin_Thinkin on February 23, 2025, 09:06:51 PM
we need to improve the GD. dish out a couple of 4-0 drubbings
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on February 23, 2025, 09:11:50 PM
This time last season (*26 games) the table was

3rd Arsenal   58
4th Us          52
5th Spurs     47
6th Manure   44
7th Brighton 39

This season
3rd Forest            47
4th Citeh              44
5th Newcastle       44
6th Bournemouth  43
7th Chelsea          43

And 10th is the position on 39 points. It just goes to show how bunched up the top is AND that everyone is currently taking points of everyone else.

*We have played 27 which is part of the reason I didn't put us in at 8th, and part for symmetry of the places.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Legion on February 23, 2025, 10:40:46 PM
Highly unlikely, but you never know.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV84 on February 23, 2025, 10:52:36 PM
we need to improve the GD. dish out a couple of 4-0 drubbings

Yep, given how many teams are still in the mix, it could be the difference between CL and nothing at all. (Maybe, I haven't done the maths on that)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on February 23, 2025, 11:45:38 PM
Highly unlikely, but you never know.

Is it?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aldridgeboy on February 24, 2025, 12:02:01 AM
I feel sad reading this thread.
As a fan  for over 40 years , I get that “ it’s the hope that kills you “

But whilst we have not hit the heights of last year , by a country mile , we’re still only a few points off 5th and qualification. Bournemouth and Forest will surely dip. We have just one league game in March , leaving us hopefully an even stronger squad come a months time.

January signings  seem to be excellent. Malen will get one and then get a few. Rashford and Asensio will change games. 

We will make 5th. Keep the faith. UTV
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on February 24, 2025, 12:41:07 AM
As of yesterday, Opta computer gave us 2.1% of finishing Top 4 and 7.6% finishing top 5.

So not much chance.

Time to kick on.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on February 24, 2025, 12:48:22 AM
Yeah, it's a completely logical position to think we won't do it, I don't think it's talking us down at all. It's possible, but it is unlikely. Maybe the new signings will turn that Opta prediction on it's head, who knows? We certainly need to maintain a form we have yet to manage.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on February 24, 2025, 01:05:02 AM
Opta presumably predicted Bournemouth to swat Wolves away with ease. We're coming for them and the rest.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on February 24, 2025, 07:38:40 AM
As of yesterday, Opta computer gave us 2.1% of finishing Top 4 and 7.6% finishing top 5.

So not much chance.

Time to kick on.

Yeah, I think we need to win 8 games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on February 24, 2025, 08:43:05 AM
As of yesterday, Opta computer gave us 2.1% of finishing Top 4 and 7.6% finishing top 5.

So not much chance.

Time to kick on.

Yeah, I think we need to win 8 games.
Maybe 7 subject to other results and beating those around us , but a huge task.
I think we will end up short.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Andy_Lochhead_in_the_air on February 24, 2025, 09:01:44 AM
Is this the same Opta computer which at the start of the season predicted 1st Man City, 6th Man U, 7th Spurs, 15th Bournemouth, 17th Forest ?

https://theanalyst.com/2024/08/premier-league-predictions-2024-25-opta-supercomputer
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on February 24, 2025, 09:06:12 AM
Yep, Opta computer might be advanced but it can only predict on current form. If someone with our current form goes on a run of 5 wins in 6, it wouldn't be shown up on Opta predictions until after it happens.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on February 24, 2025, 09:07:52 AM
Quote
Forest have beaten Brighton 7-0, lost 5-0 to Bournemouth and had the double done on them by Newcastle and Fulham.
Manchester City won comfortably against Forest and Newcastle but lost to Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Brighton.
Newcastle hammered Villa but conceded four in defeat to Manchester City, Bournemouth and Brentford.
Bournemouth put five past Forest and four past Newcastle but lost to Chelsea.
Chelsea have beaten and lost to both Aston Villa and Brighton.
Aston Villa won deservedly against Manchester City and Chelsea but lost equally convincingly to Chelsea and Newcastle.
Brighton have suffered heavy defeats to Forest, Chelsea and Fulham but won at St James’ Park and Dean Court.
Fulham have done the double over both Forest and Newcastle but were poor in defeat to Villa.
Brentford have beaten both Newcastle and Bournemouth but lost or drawn with everyone else.

These are stupid teams playing for a stupidly lucrative prize and it is showing.

And while “the first trophy is to finish in the top four,” it is wonderful that eight of those nine teams still have an actual trophy to play for and thus competitions to juggle: Forest, Manchester City, Bournemouth, Aston Villa, Brighton and Fulham have a rare genuine chance to win the FA Cup, Newcastle have eyes on both that and the Carabao Cup final in their bid for the most plastic of all Trebles, and Chelsea are busy googling their Europa Conference opponents.

All eyes on Brentford, basically.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on February 24, 2025, 09:18:36 AM
Only realised today that only 4 of our remaining League games are at home.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on February 24, 2025, 09:27:30 AM
You know it's a weird season when looking at remaing fixtures and instead of thinking the games at Man C and Man U are the toughest you think it's the ones at Bourenmouth and Brentford.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on February 24, 2025, 09:41:46 AM
You know it's a weird season when looking at remaing fixtures and instead of thinking the games at Man C and Man U are the toughest you think it's the ones at Bourenmouth and Brentford.

And why I'm not bothering to try and look at other teams fixtures to work it out, we just need to get a run of wins.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on February 24, 2025, 09:44:47 AM
Only realised today that only 4 of our remaining League games are at home.
Is that a glitch in the scheduling isn't it generally H A H A etc
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on February 24, 2025, 09:47:53 AM
Nope, there has been batches in the past. But also one of the H games that was coming up was played earlier.

(If we go far in the FA Cup, City away and Spurs at home are two which will need changing).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on February 24, 2025, 09:58:18 AM
Nah, Man U will always be one of our toughest games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 24, 2025, 10:01:50 AM
Get 7 points from the next 3 games and I'd be feeling pretty confident. Even 5 would leave us in the mix, but we'd probably need to beat Forest and Newcastle at home and get at least a point at Citeh. I think Forest will fall away but Bournemouth's run-in looks decent and they could be the dark horses.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: boozey182 on February 24, 2025, 10:33:27 AM
The margins are razor-thin at the moment - I don't think anyone can be sure either way about how it will all pan out. Just take our last week: An incredible save in injury time by the Ipswich keeper which cost us two points, a miss-of-the-season contender to help us gain a point on Wednesday, and then up the other end we could have won it with the last kick of the game. Then on Saturday, their keeper threw one into his net to give us two points, not long after Palmer should really have scored with our keeper on the floor. We could have ended up with anything between 1 and 9 points with very little difference in those matches, with pretty much the exact same performances from our players.

All season I have been expecting our performances to get better and better, but now it almost doesn't matter. It's purely about results, however they come. It's about those moments now; the split-second decisions, connecting with the ball properly, the clearances off the line, capitalising on the dodgy backpass. We need to take advantage of every opportunity if we're going to qualify for the Champions League, with very little margin for error.

But it is doable. Our January signings are looking even more astute in this context with Rashford and Asensio, in particular, used to this kind of pressure. I'd have taken Asensio off on Saturday, it felt like the game was passing him by, but when the moment came, he got a decent enough connection on the ball. Rashford picked out the right pass.

The injuries we've had, the questionable refereeing performances, the fixture congestion, bogey teams (or grounds) - none of that matters. We're in control of our own destiny, and if we go on a bit of a run now, we'll give ourselves a huge chance of getting ourselves in there again next season. To be in with a shout at this stage of the season, when we have been far from our best, is amazing, and speaks to how good our manager really is.

Qualifying for the Champions League once is great. Doing it in back-to-back seasons would transform the club, in terms of revenue, how we're seen around the world, the confidence of our players and the signings we could make. A big push is needed.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on February 24, 2025, 10:53:36 AM
Bournemouth will start to choke , I watched them v wolves Saturday and they were gash.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chris Smith on February 24, 2025, 11:18:33 AM
Bournemouth will start to choke , I watched them v wolves Saturday and they were gash.

They were playing with only 10 men for an hour.

They’re like a lot of teams, us included, that have good results but have so far been unable to sustain over a longer period.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on February 24, 2025, 11:23:25 AM
Although even before then Wolves were on top and could have been 2-0 up.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ozzjim on February 24, 2025, 11:29:23 AM
I think it's going to be 3-4 points come the last game covering 5-6 sides. At which point some of our draws this season will haunt us badly.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on February 24, 2025, 12:23:18 PM
Or our goal difference
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on February 24, 2025, 01:19:13 PM
We’re in with a shout with 10 or so games to go which is more than the Geordie Twats managed last year. Get people back fit and we’re as likely as any of the other teams mentioned.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on February 24, 2025, 01:23:00 PM
Bournemouth will start to choke , I watched them v wolves Saturday and they were gash.

They were playing with only 10 men for an hour.

They’re like a lot of teams, us included, that have good results but have so far been unable to sustain over a longer period.
They didn't look any better with 11 men .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ASHTONVILLA on February 24, 2025, 01:32:38 PM
I still think we will make 4th or 5th. We are very close still after a drop in form and an injury crisis, with plenty of players to return and a much refreshed set of attacking options. We are on the ascendancy and Man City, Chelsea and Bournemouth are on the slide. Newcastle are more than capable of messing it up as well.

For sure we will make the Europa league, and in with a good chance of Champions League. Even a chance we qualify as winners.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 24, 2025, 01:37:27 PM
Newcastle still have to go to Liverpool and Arsenal, whereas we have already played them twice.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on February 24, 2025, 01:37:45 PM
Or our goal difference

cd says not to worry about goal difference.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: stevo_st on February 24, 2025, 05:10:01 PM
A 2019 esque run of results right now would be nice
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on February 24, 2025, 05:14:48 PM
A 2023 esque run would also do the trick
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aldridgeboy on February 24, 2025, 05:21:48 PM
I think we will. We have over two weeks off in March and we will come back fresh as daiseys. 5th place is very 'gettable" , and Forest and Bournemouth haven't really had a wobble yet. They're bound to. We will finish 5th and win he FA cup!! :)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: stevo_st on February 24, 2025, 06:00:19 PM
If we win the CL, Spurs win the EL and we both finish outside of the top 5, we’ll have 7 English sides in the CL next season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dante Lavelli on February 24, 2025, 07:22:51 PM
We’re in with a shout with 10 or so games to go which is more than the Geordie Twats managed last year. Get people back fit and we’re as likely as any of the other teams mentioned.

We’ve also gone deeper in the CL by comparison.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on February 24, 2025, 07:59:47 PM
Newcastle still have to go to Liverpool and Arsenal, whereas we have already played them twice.

I would love it if they lose there. Love it.  8)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on February 24, 2025, 08:13:14 PM
Newcastle still have to go to Liverpool and Arsenal, whereas we have already played them twice.

I would love it if they lose there. Love it.  8)

I remember you calling the Conference League qualification in Unai's first season before anyone else Smirker, do you believe again this season?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on February 24, 2025, 08:24:18 PM
Arsenal will taper off , they don't have a striker , they looked woeful at the weekend from a goalscoring sense
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on February 24, 2025, 08:33:16 PM
The twats will absolutely lose to Forest this midweek, for starters. You can't trust Arsenal to do you a favour.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on February 24, 2025, 10:05:29 PM
We just need to win our games. We haven’t done that consistently enough this season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on February 24, 2025, 11:01:58 PM
We still have to face Forest, Man City, Bournemouth and Newcastle. That's where we need results. Provided in the other fixtures we don't draw at home to 10 man Ipswich. But that ain't gonna happen.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SaddVillan on February 24, 2025, 11:19:59 PM
If Citeh get a suitable points deduction, then they're out of the picture.

And with a decent results in the next round of fixtures, the Prem should get a 5th Champs League place next season based on coefficients.

So assuming Liverpool take the title, that leaves
Arsenal, Forest, Toon, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Villa and Brighton fighting over 4 spots.

Do you want to bet against us?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on February 25, 2025, 05:49:34 AM
If Citeh get a suitable points deduction, then they're out of the picture.

And with a decent results in the next round of fixtures, the Prem should get a 5th Champs League place next season based on coefficients.

So assuming Liverpool take the title, that leaves
Arsenal, Forest, Toon, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Villa and Brighton fighting over 4 spots.

Do you want to bet against us?
Yes, what odds you offering?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on February 25, 2025, 07:46:12 AM
5th place is probably 65 points so we need 23/33. Cant see us winning 7 and drawing 2 based on schedule and injuries which make us inconsistent. I'd say 7th. 3rd-9th being City/Newcastle/Forest/Bournemouth/Us/Chelsea/Brighton

At least the January signings give us a puncher's chance though. I think 6th at best.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ozzjim on February 25, 2025, 07:50:40 AM
I think 7th too. Not sure a season in the conference would do us much good, and would almost certainly see Asensio and Rashford not stay on, which would be a shame having seen the quality they have.

Only ourselves to blame this season. 2 points from Ipswich, home draw with Palace, Bournemouth, West Ham. All 5 games we should have walked home.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: john2710 on February 25, 2025, 10:21:20 AM
The next 3 away games against Palace, Brentford & Brighton are critical, with a minimum of 6 points needed. I'd love to be wrong, but I just don't see any evidence that we will.

If we are still within 2-3 points of the top 5 after those games, I think we'll do it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on February 25, 2025, 10:28:17 AM
The next 3 away games against Palace, Brentford & Brighton are critical, with a minimum of 6 points needed. I'd love to be wrong, but I just don't see any evidence that we will.

If we are still within 2-3 points of the top 5 after those games, I think we'll do it.

Yeah, that feels right.

I think the biggest factor might be any points deduction that comes Man City's way. Three teams fighting for third / fourth / fifth feels a lot more do-able than two teams fighting for fourth / fifth.

As even though they're rubbish compared to usual, you'd still expect them to swat aside enough lower teams to finish comfortably in the top four if no points deduction happens this season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on February 25, 2025, 10:33:07 AM
I think 4 points would be expected. 5 points a positive return, 6 would be good, yet disappointing to have lost one, 7 we'd be happy and 9 would be absolutely smashing. Anything less would be very disappointing, though going undefeated with 3 draws wouldn't be all bad.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on February 25, 2025, 10:42:41 AM
I think 4 points would be expected. 5 points a positive return, 6 would be good, yet disappointing to have lost one, 7 we'd be happy and 9 would be absolutely smashing. Anything less would be very disappointing, though going undefeated with 3 draws wouldn't be all bad.

I'd say that the Brentford / Brighton games are more important than the Palace one, as both are still in the conversation of finishing above us, so them not getting points is more important than Palace not getting points.

I think unless we get 5/6 points from those three we're really going to need to be getting 4-6 points from Forest and Newcastle.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on February 25, 2025, 10:44:35 AM
I think 4 points would be expected. 5 points a positive return, 6 would be good, yet disappointing to have lost one, 7 we'd be happy and 9 would be absolutely smashing. Anything less would be very disappointing, though going undefeated with 3 draws wouldn't be all bad.

I'd say that the Brentford / Brighton games are more important than the Palace one, as both are still in the conversation of finishing above us, so them not getting points is more important than Palace not getting points.

I think unless we get 5/6 points from those three we're really going to need to be getting 4-6 points from Forest and Newcastle.

I'd say we need those four-six points (Forest & Newcastle) regardless.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on February 25, 2025, 10:57:21 AM
I think 4 points would be expected. 5 points a positive return, 6 would be good, yet disappointing to have lost one, 7 we'd be happy and 9 would be absolutely smashing. Anything less would be very disappointing, though going undefeated with 3 draws wouldn't be all bad.

I'd say that the Brentford / Brighton games are more important than the Palace one, as both are still in the conversation of finishing above us, so them not getting points is more important than Palace not getting points.

I think unless we get 5/6 points from those three we're really going to need to be getting 4-6 points from Forest and Newcastle.

I'd say we need those four-six points (Forest & Newcastle) regardless.

Perhaps. But Forest have lost three of their last four and have Arsenal and Man City next. There is definitely greater precedent for a team doing unexpectedly well in the first half of the season and then falling away than there is of them maintaining it.

On Newcastle, obviously I'd rather we beat them but them smashing us and finishing fourth while we win the other games we'd be expected to and finish fifth would still be fine.

So there are scenarios where it's all okay.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: boozey182 on February 25, 2025, 11:02:55 AM
I think 4 points would be expected. 5 points a positive return, 6 would be good, yet disappointing to have lost one, 7 we'd be happy and 9 would be absolutely smashing. Anything less would be very disappointing, though going undefeated with 3 draws wouldn't be all bad.

This is the point of the season where my brain starts to implode with all the different possibilities. There's an argument that 5 points could be better than 6, if the 6 meant losing to Brighton. Or losing tonight, a draw against Brentford and beating Brighton might even be better than winning the first two, depending on other results.

Let's just win tonight. We need to go on a run, and matches like this are the ones that can define a season. Away on Tuesday night, to a mid-table team. Decent, but not unbeatable. We've amassed quite a few points in a small space of time, on the back of an excellent result on Saturday. We need to back it up, and consolidate our position. We looked out of the race after Ipswich, now all of a sudden teams will see us right amongst the battle.

The sun is out. I can see snowdrops from my window. The long, tough winter is passing and it's time to start something. When Gerard Manley Hopkins wrote "Nothing is so beautiful as Spring!", I'm pretty sure he was referring to the prospect of an away win at Crystal Palace which starts a 10 game winning run to properly start a season that, up to now, hasn't properly got going.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 25, 2025, 11:10:58 AM
When Gerard Manley Hopkins wrote "Nothing is so beautiful as Spring!", I'm pretty sure he was referring to the prospect of an away win at Crystal Palace which starts a 10 game winning run to properly start a season that, up to now, hasn't properly got going.

Any relation to Robert?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on February 25, 2025, 11:17:12 AM
I think 4 points would be expected. 5 points a positive return, 6 would be good, yet disappointing to have lost one, 7 we'd be happy and 9 would be absolutely smashing. Anything less would be very disappointing, though going undefeated with 3 draws wouldn't be all bad.

This is the point of the season where my brain starts to implode with all the different possibilities. There's an argument that 5 points could be better than 6, if the 6 meant losing to Brighton. Or losing tonight, a draw against Brentford and beating Brighton might even be better than winning the first two, depending on other results.

Let's just win tonight. We need to go on a run, and matches like this are the ones that can define a season. Away on Tuesday night, to a mid-table team. Decent, but not unbeatable. We've amassed quite a few points in a small space of time, on the back of an excellent result on Saturday. We need to back it up, and consolidate our position. We looked out of the race after Ipswich, now all of a sudden teams will see us right amongst the battle.

The sun is out. I can see snowdrops from my window. The long, tough winter is passing and it's time to start something. When Gerard Manley Hopkins wrote "Nothing is so beautiful as Spring!", I'm pretty sure he was referring to the prospect of an away win at Crystal Palace which starts a 10 game winning run to properly start a season that, up to now, hasn't properly got going.

And that's it, the combinations and permutations are so wide-ranging that it's almost impossible to work out what's needed. If we keep winning, everything will be fine. There are lots of other outcomes that could happen to mean that it's just not the end of the world if things don't go the right way every week.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on February 25, 2025, 11:29:59 AM
Last season we won back-to-back league games (or better) 7 times across the season.  This season we've only done it 3 times.  If we're going to get into the top 5, that has to change.

We need to string a few wins together, to get away from this stop-start league season we're having, and there is no better opportunity to start getting back-to-back wins than tonight.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 25, 2025, 11:39:27 AM
This is the point of the season where my brain starts to implode with all the different possibilities. There's an argument that 5 points could be better than 6, if the 6 meant losing to Brighton. Or losing tonight, a draw against Brentford and beating Brighton might even be better than winning the first two, depending on other results.

I can see some logic to that but would be more on board if we were playing Brighton and Bournemouth next. As an aside, Palace are slight favourites tonight unlike the Brentford game where we're favourites.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on February 25, 2025, 12:26:14 PM
Newcastle seem to have decent fixtures remaining. Although they are still in both domestic Cups, so hopefully take their eye off the ball a bit.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on February 25, 2025, 01:28:04 PM
When Gerard Manley Hopkins wrote "Nothing is so beautiful as Spring!", I'm pretty sure he was referring to the prospect of an away win at Crystal Palace which starts a 10 game winning run to properly start a season that, up to now, hasn't properly got going.

Any relation to Robert?

Oh Manley, you came and you gave without taking!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rudy Can't Fail on February 25, 2025, 01:32:20 PM
Newcastle seem to have decent fixtures remaining. Although they are still in both domestic Cups, so hopefully take their eye off the ball a bit.

A bit? I'm hoping Liverpool beat them so convincingly in the League Cup Final they head into a tail spin as heads drop and are lucky to avoid relegation.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on February 25, 2025, 01:34:21 PM
Newcastle seem to have decent fixtures remaining. Although they are still in both domestic Cups, so hopefully take their eye off the ball a bit.

A bit? I'm hoping Liverpool beat them so convincingly in the League Cup Final they head into a tail spin as heads drop and are lucky to avoid relegation.

I'm still convinced we're going to meet Newcastle in the Cup Final and it'll be a "Battle of the 60+ year hoodoos".
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rudy Can't Fail on February 25, 2025, 01:40:31 PM
Newcastle seem to have decent fixtures remaining. Although they are still in both domestic Cups, so hopefully take their eye off the ball a bit.

A bit? I'm hoping Liverpool beat them so convincingly in the League Cup Final they head into a tail spin as heads drop and are lucky to avoid relegation.

I'm still convinced we're going to meet Newcastle in the Cup Final and it'll be a "Battle of the 60+ year hoodoos".

Ha! I thought exactly that last season. It would be fun but I'd prefer the thin skinned, passive-aggressive horse punchers get knocked out it the next round (see post above). My prediction for this season is a repeat of the 1957 Cup Final.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on February 25, 2025, 01:45:03 PM
Newcastle seem to have decent fixtures remaining. Although they are still in both domestic Cups, so hopefully take their eye off the ball a bit.

A bit? I'm hoping Liverpool beat them so convincingly in the League Cup Final they head into a tail spin as heads drop and are lucky to avoid relegation.

I'm still convinced we're going to meet Newcastle in the Cup Final and it'll be a "Battle of the 60+ year hoodoos".

Ha! I thought exactly that last season. It would be fun but I'd prefer the thin skinned, passive-aggressive horse punchers get knocked out it the next round (see post above). My prediction for this season is a repeat of the 1957 Cup Final.

I'd be happy with that. I think the only way we get rid of this hoodoo is revisiting the scene of the crime in 1957 against the same opponents and putting it to bed. I think they're the team who've knocked us out the most in the intervening 60 odd years so it would be nice to round it out like that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 25, 2025, 02:24:32 PM
When Gerard Manley Hopkins wrote "Nothing is so beautiful as Spring!", I'm pretty sure he was referring to the prospect of an away win at Crystal Palace which starts a 10 game winning run to properly start a season that, up to now, hasn't properly got going.

Any relation to Robert?

Oh Manley, you came and you gave without taking!

We studied his poetry (Hopkins not Manilow) for the Leaving Cert. I don't recall enjoying it much.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on February 25, 2025, 02:44:26 PM
Newcastle seem to have decent fixtures remaining. Although they are still in both domestic Cups, so hopefully take their eye off the ball a bit.

A bit? I'm hoping Liverpool beat them so convincingly in the League Cup Final they head into a tail spin as heads drop and are lucky to avoid relegation.

I'm still convinced we're going to meet Newcastle in the Cup Final and it'll be a "Battle of the 60+ year hoodoos".

I wouldn't mind that.

Just don't want the scummy Manc clubs in the Final again, hoovering up all the trophies.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on February 25, 2025, 09:24:16 PM
Bye bye too 5. I don’t say it lightly back that second half was a disgrace of a performance.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 25, 2025, 09:25:43 PM
Nah. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on February 25, 2025, 09:25:59 PM
No chance, rubbish.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on February 25, 2025, 09:26:25 PM
Blown it tonight.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Pete3206 on February 25, 2025, 09:27:33 PM
Nope
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on February 25, 2025, 09:28:47 PM
Don’t deserve to, and won’t.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 25, 2025, 09:29:22 PM
After losing 4-1 tonight, I'm afraid our poor goal difference might cost us a CL spot.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on February 25, 2025, 09:29:42 PM
Today is the first time I have mentally thrown in the towel on this question, which is quite good for a miserable bastard like me to last this long!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on February 25, 2025, 09:30:06 PM
Sorry but the league form has been shocking this season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on February 25, 2025, 09:30:07 PM
Don’t deserve to, and won’t.

Nope that second half they legitimately gave up. They weren’t much good when they were trying, but it was embarrassing once they stopped.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: stevo_st on February 25, 2025, 09:30:09 PM
Need to win the Cup now
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Deano's Mullet on February 25, 2025, 09:30:21 PM
Not a hope in hell
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ez on February 25, 2025, 09:31:12 PM
Forget it
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on February 25, 2025, 09:31:13 PM
Nooooooooooo
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on February 25, 2025, 09:31:23 PM
I think tonight was a turning point.  With the results in other matches, and Newcastle now having two games in hand (as well as being 2 points ahead), we're at the point where Champions League qualification is going to need us to have title-challenging form for the rest of the season, and we just don't look like that sort of form is on the horizon.

Top 6 might be doable, but it's just as likely we miss out altogether the way we're playing right now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on February 25, 2025, 09:32:00 PM
Nowhere near, I think we're looking 9th-12th this season. Friday night hugely important now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on February 25, 2025, 09:32:16 PM
As the sketch went in Porridge

Are we making the CL?

What, with this defence?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on February 25, 2025, 09:32:20 PM
No we wont - which is a shame because it seems very doable this season - but we just cant string together 2 good performances.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Taylor on February 25, 2025, 09:32:31 PM
No.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on February 25, 2025, 09:32:46 PM
It was better than last season's result, what is everyone moaning about?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Behind Bluenose Lines on February 25, 2025, 09:33:21 PM
Definitely time to lock this thread now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 25, 2025, 09:33:54 PM
Its done

And we dont deserve it either

Shambolic  defence has cost us deeply
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Richard on February 25, 2025, 09:34:37 PM
No we wont - which is a shame because it seems very doable this season - but we just cant string together 2 good performances.

Exactly this. Injuries haven't helped of course but we are extremely inconsistent and defensively all over the place.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brend'Watkins on February 25, 2025, 09:34:41 PM
We don’t deserve to. Our best and only chance is winning this year’s CL. Win the FA cup and have the Europa cup as back up if we don’t.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Legion on February 25, 2025, 09:35:50 PM
No.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ez on February 25, 2025, 09:37:08 PM
Annoying considering we were in touch for so long. Fourth and fifth place are up for grabs but we aren't involved.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: adrenachrome on February 25, 2025, 09:42:54 PM
It's gone.

Our defensive record is execrable.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Nunkin1965 on February 25, 2025, 09:45:26 PM
Can't see it now.
Dreadful away from home too often.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: villa for life on February 25, 2025, 09:52:12 PM
Such a shame. We were on a high at the end of last season but a shocking summer transfer window has taken its toll.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Grande Pablo on February 25, 2025, 10:05:00 PM
Conference League if we’re lucky.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: kippaxvilla2 on February 25, 2025, 10:37:41 PM
As the old saying goes ‘you’re having a laugh’
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DC1874 on February 25, 2025, 10:40:13 PM
No chance
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DC1874 on February 25, 2025, 10:40:42 PM
Better win a pot then
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on February 25, 2025, 10:41:17 PM
Please thread close. Sad.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on February 25, 2025, 10:42:04 PM
This thread is a real rollercoaster
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on February 25, 2025, 10:54:35 PM
(https://i.ibb.co/yBX1PmQG/unnamed.jpg)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Nii Lamptey on February 25, 2025, 10:57:45 PM
Not a snowball’s chance in hell. I want Season 1 of my Aston Villa back. This new one is a shambles.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on February 25, 2025, 10:58:36 PM
Looking at our league position now, the more pertinent question for the remainder of the season is whether qualifying for the Conference League would be regarded as a good thing or not.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: kippaxvilla2 on February 25, 2025, 11:14:05 PM
2 points between us and 4th may as well be 12 the way we continually gift goals.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 25, 2025, 11:16:06 PM
This thread is a real rollercoaster

As is our season. https://x.com/StanCollymore/status/1894506392288891128
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rory on February 26, 2025, 12:19:11 AM
Sorry but the league form has been shocking this season.

Disappointing. 'Shocking' is just hyperbole. We're not fucking Arsenal fans.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on February 26, 2025, 03:32:16 AM
I laughed at and copied these posts into my notes last season…

“I feel like the Villa that starts the 2024/25 season will be unrecognisable in the way that a recently relegated team is because it's had to flog all of its stars, the difference being it'll be because we probably won't be able to offer Champions League football.”


“We have totally fucked it now.

We are ten matches from the end of the season and will be playing 30% of those matches without our captain, who plays in a part of the field where we are already decimated.

Not only that, we are playing badly and have been for ages now, just putting in the odd good 45 minutes here and there. Even when we manage a good half we then keep on having an absolute stinker of a second.

We are absolutely fuxked with injuries and have a difficult run in. The next three matches are all tricky, and I can honestly see us losing them all.

I think we will finish sixth, which will be fucking devastating after the expectation of the first two thirds of the season.

Genuinely woke up this morning feeling exactly like I did after that Stoke match, that is how bad this is. Gifting three points to our closest rivals on our own ground and throwing in an eight GD swing.

Fucking hell, I hate football.”

“Yesterday was pretty fucking terrible, and it's gut wrenching to look at the table and see where Spurs are after tonight.

Yeah yeah yeah lots of football to come, but turn the tables around and if we were ahead of them with a game in hand, we'd be cock-a-hoop.

We've absolutely blown it. We're playing poorly, too, at a time when Spurs are starting to fire more consistently.

Gutting.”

There were dozens but I kept these three because they were hysterical and eloquent. I only laughed though because of Tottenham’s fixtures, which I don’t think these posters took any notice of - Newcastle, Arsenal, Liverpool & Man City. We need a lot of teams to fuck up this time, but on the plus side a few of them are struggling.

The one pessimistic thing I was absolutely sure of recently was us not making the top 8 in the CL after losing to Monaco. We needed so many results to go our way over the last two rounds of games it seemed impossible, but it happened.

We’re two points off CL at the moment, so it’s not done yet.  If Emi’s out though, it is.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on February 26, 2025, 06:05:00 AM
Thing is with the number of teams between us a 5th we would need a good run of wins to have a chance, especially as we’ve played more games. There is absolutely nothing to suggest we are capable of winning several of the remainder.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 26, 2025, 06:46:24 AM
I laughed at and copied these posts into my notes last season…

“I feel like the Villa that starts the 2024/25 season will be unrecognisable in the way that a recently relegated team is because it's had to flog all of its stars, the difference being it'll be because we probably won't be able to offer Champions League football.”


“We have totally fucked it now.

We are ten matches from the end of the season and will be playing 30% of those matches without our captain, who plays in a part of the field where we are already decimated.

Not only that, we are playing badly and have been for ages now, just putting in the odd good 45 minutes here and there. Even when we manage a good half we then keep on having an absolute stinker of a second.

We are absolutely fuxked with injuries and have a difficult run in. The next three matches are all tricky, and I can honestly see us losing them all.

I think we will finish sixth, which will be fucking devastating after the expectation of the first two thirds of the season.

Genuinely woke up this morning feeling exactly like I did after that Stoke match, that is how bad this is. Gifting three points to our closest rivals on our own ground and throwing in an eight GD swing.

Fucking hell, I hate football.”

“Yesterday was pretty fucking terrible, and it's gut wrenching to look at the table and see where Spurs are after tonight.

Yeah yeah yeah lots of football to come, but turn the tables around and if we were ahead of them with a game in hand, we'd be cock-a-hoop.

We've absolutely blown it. We're playing poorly, too, at a time when Spurs are starting to fire more consistently.

Gutting.”

There were dozens but I kept these three because they were hysterical and eloquent. I only laughed though because of Tottenham’s fixtures, which I don’t think these posters took any notice of - Newcastle, Arsenal, Liverpool & Man City. We need a lot of teams to fuck up this time, but on the plus side a few of them are struggling.

The one pessimistic thing I was absolutely sure of recently was us not making the top 8 in the CL after losing to Monaco. We needed so many results to go our way over the last two rounds of games it seemed impossible, but it happened.

We’re two points off CL at the moment, so it’s not done yet.  If Emi’s out though, it is.

My opinion is if all our remaining games were  at home we qualify with ease but as a majority if our away games are away i would say its massively  unlikley  we will qualify for the conference  let alone champions league. Yesterday  wasa good opportunity  to keep the run going.

And we blew it. Yet Again
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on February 26, 2025, 08:20:02 AM
I laughed at and copied these posts into my notes last season…

“I feel like the Villa that starts the 2024/25 season will be unrecognisable in the way that a recently relegated team is because it's had to flog all of its stars, the difference being it'll be because we probably won't be able to offer Champions League football.”


“We have totally fucked it now.

We are ten matches from the end of the season and will be playing 30% of those matches without our captain, who plays in a part of the field where we are already decimated.

Not only that, we are playing badly and have been for ages now, just putting in the odd good 45 minutes here and there. Even when we manage a good half we then keep on having an absolute stinker of a second.

We are absolutely fuxked with injuries and have a difficult run in. The next three matches are all tricky, and I can honestly see us losing them all.

I think we will finish sixth, which will be fucking devastating after the expectation of the first two thirds of the season.

Genuinely woke up this morning feeling exactly like I did after that Stoke match, that is how bad this is. Gifting three points to our closest rivals on our own ground and throwing in an eight GD swing.

Fucking hell, I hate football.”

“Yesterday was pretty fucking terrible, and it's gut wrenching to look at the table and see where Spurs are after tonight.

Yeah yeah yeah lots of football to come, but turn the tables around and if we were ahead of them with a game in hand, we'd be cock-a-hoop.

We've absolutely blown it. We're playing poorly, too, at a time when Spurs are starting to fire more consistently.

Gutting.”

There were dozens but I kept these three because they were hysterical and eloquent. I only laughed though because of Tottenham’s fixtures, which I don’t think these posters took any notice of - Newcastle, Arsenal, Liverpool & Man City. We need a lot of teams to fuck up this time, but on the plus side a few of them are struggling.

The one pessimistic thing I was absolutely sure of recently was us not making the top 8 in the CL after losing to Monaco. We needed so many results to go our way over the last two rounds of games it seemed impossible, but it happened.

We’re two points off CL at the moment, so it’s not done yet.  If Emi’s out though, it is.

As bad as last night was, you're right it's most definitely not over yet. I get the anger but some of it as ever is extensive and over the top (one poster has posted over 32 times since the game ended) and is still on it now.

It was crap and defensively we need to sort things out although having two defensive mids out at the moment can't be helping but we've also just taken 4 points off Liverpool and Chelsea.

Perspective and some calming down needed at times I think.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Richard on February 26, 2025, 08:33:02 AM
32 times!? I wonder which often hysterical poster that was haha
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: frank black on February 26, 2025, 08:41:03 AM
We will be just fine, if we ever avoid conceding from the opponents first attempt on target.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave P on February 26, 2025, 08:52:04 AM
With 6 of our 10 games left being away, then there is no way we will get CL.  I would 100% take Europa League or even Conference League as we may have a shot of winning these.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on February 26, 2025, 09:10:12 AM
With 6 of our 10 games left being away, then there is no way we will get CL.  I would 100% take Europa League or even Conference League as we may have a shot of winning these.

Me too. I can get in those games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: wince on February 26, 2025, 09:38:47 AM
Only hope is to pretty much focus on the cups or just see out this season. Get a decent summer transfer window, get some pre season training in and really push next year. Just had a look at the Unai thread and came back out. We do not have a snowflakes hope in hell of CL next year unless we win the thing or sort out the consistency. CP are a real bogey team for us but we are approaching games now expecting to concede first, to not keep a clean sheet and being defensively all over the place. Emery needs to sort this out but saving grace is we havent gone on a losing streak, but a drawing one. You take those draws where we should have won and the table looks very different.

However, if my aunty had plumbs and all that, it is irrelevant. I can forgive the match and post match thread as this is the 1984 hate week in motion and long shall it remain so (if we cannot blow up in there where can we) but I think our season in the league is pretty much as it is now. Question is, would we be better risking some of our players may wish to move on without CL football? These are the same players who dont seem overly arsed week in week out anyway, with a premise of making a hell bent for leather push next year?

I thought it was premature with the early season 'giant awakes' nonsense as we got there now we need to maintain being there, which isnt easy with PSR hanging over us.

We are also, on paper, in a false position with the talent we have but we are where we deserve to be. To inconsistent, too inflexible at times and too easy to score against and not enough goals to compensate for this. We do have a lot of injuries but we cannot use this as an all encompassing excuse. When we are good we are great but too often lately we are reverting to type when teams havent won, or their striker is having a drought, or whatever. And that is why we wont qualify this year so it is Europa or Conference.

It will be a backward step if we dont qualify but it may allow us to concentrate on that push next season.

Just my thoughts this morning. Also aware of this time 9 years ago we would be so happy to be discussing this, however it is 2025 not 2016 and therefore no relevance to now. We earned our place up at this end of the table, lets not just be grateful to still be in the league. We are worth more than that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on February 26, 2025, 10:40:30 AM
Of course there's still a chance. Not that I think we'll do it now, we're 17th based on form over the past 6 games.

Europa or Conference will be where we end up I think now, because I do think we'll improve.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: caster troy on February 26, 2025, 10:51:55 AM
Not being in Europe next season would really hurt us, yes we'd have the advantage of less games but commercially it would mean a huge drop in revenue and we'd be resigned to losing some/all of Emi, Ollie, Bouba and it's unlikely we'd keep any of Asensio, Rashford or Disasi. You'd imagine we'd also offload Mings, Digne, Bailey, Cash to reduce the wagebill. It would be a huge rebuild job.

Sure, it's not comparable to getting relegated but nonetheless it is pretty disappointing.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on February 26, 2025, 10:53:49 AM
Not being in Europe next season would really hurt us, yes we'd have the advantage of less games but commercially it would mean a huge drop in revenue and we'd be resigned to losing some/all of Emi, Ollie, Bouba and it's unlikely we'd keep any of Asensio, Rashford or Disasi. You'd imagine we'd also offload Mings, Digne, Bailey, Cash to reduce the wagebill. It would be a huge rebuild job.

Even if we ended up out of Europe altogether, I don't think we're going to reduce down to a squad of a dozen players.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Stinkin_Thinkin on February 26, 2025, 10:58:01 AM
Not being in Europe next season would really hurt us, yes we'd have the advantage of less games but commercially it would mean a huge drop in revenue and we'd be resigned to losing some/all of Emi, Ollie, Bouba and it's unlikely we'd keep any of Asensio, Rashford or Disasi. You'd imagine we'd also offload Mings, Digne, Bailey, Cash to reduce the wagebill. It would be a huge rebuild job.


Emery might consider if it's worth sacrificing the FA cup to concentrate on the battle for 5th. We'll see with the team selection on Friday.
However it's only February therefore its possible we may pick up and others like Bournemouth and Newcastle will have their blips in March and April whilsts we'd find some form and big players to return Pau and Kamera. However last season we limped over the line and you think about ipswich at home a great opportunity to pump up the GD and we end up salvaging a point you think maybe its not going to happen?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on February 26, 2025, 11:03:19 AM
It's not going to happen. We said we'd pick up defensively when Kamara returned and he did and the goals still flow. It's been going on for 50+ games now. We aren't going to miraculously become good when Torres reappears or Onana decides he can play through a bit of pain. The way we are set up, prepared and play the game leads us to concede, and concede a lot and until that changes we aren't going to qualify for anything.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 26, 2025, 11:09:22 AM
Of course there's still a chance. Not that I think we'll do it now, we're 17th based on form over the past 6 games.

Europa or Conference will be where we end up I think now, because I do think we'll improve.

That's a fair summary after last night. We might go on a bit of a run if we get some players back and rested during March.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: caster troy on February 26, 2025, 11:13:33 AM
Not being in Europe next season would really hurt us, yes we'd have the advantage of less games but commercially it would mean a huge drop in revenue and we'd be resigned to losing some/all of Emi, Ollie, Bouba and it's unlikely we'd keep any of Asensio, Rashford or Disasi. You'd imagine we'd also offload Mings, Digne, Bailey, Cash to reduce the wagebill. It would be a huge rebuild job.

Even if we ended up out of Europe altogether, I don't think we're going to reduce down to a squad of a dozen players.

Obviously some would be replaced, and loanees like Enzo Barrenechea and Iling-Junior may be retained. Maybe the post-rebuild squad would do well with just domestic competitions but it wouldn't be a certainty.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 26, 2025, 12:06:55 PM
After the game last night I thought we were done.  But, lots of us thought that after that horrid game v Spurs last season and it didn't turn out that way.  We're still in the hunt and will need to beat all of the teams above us in the league when we play them - that's not beyond us.  The absolute key to it is Kamara.  If he's out much longer we'll finish anywhere between 9th and 6th.  Does anybody know what's wrong with him?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on February 26, 2025, 12:08:33 PM
After the game last night I thought we were done.  But, lots of us thought that after that horrid game v Spurs last season and it didn't turn out that way.  We're still in the hunt and will need to beat all of the teams above us in the league when we play them - that's not beyond us.  The absolute key to it is Kamara.  If he's out much longer we'll finish anywhere between 9th and 6th.  Does anybody know what's wrong with him?

Torres is the other important factor. His ability on the ball when we're playing out is key.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: kippaxvilla2 on February 26, 2025, 12:12:51 PM
I honestly think he should sack the league off now and go all out for the cups.  Our goal difference alone is going to be too much to pull back - it is not as if we have been battering teams when we have won this season.  Still, we might pull some of it back at Southampton I suppose.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 26, 2025, 12:13:26 PM
After the game last night I thought we were done.  But, lots of us thought that after that horrid game v Spurs last season and it didn't turn out that way.  We're still in the hunt and will need to beat all of the teams above us in the league when we play them - that's not beyond us.  The absolute key to it is Kamara.  If he's out much longer we'll finish anywhere between 9th and 6th.  Does anybody know what's wrong with him?

Torres is the other important factor. His ability on the ball when we're playing out is key.

True.  According to 'premier injuries' website both could be back by 8th March, so maybe back by the 2nd leg of the CL game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 26, 2025, 12:33:28 PM
So just for context how bad we are doing in the league. If brentford win both their  games in hand they go above us and we we will be 11th.

Thats pretty poor tbh
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 26, 2025, 12:42:04 PM
So just for context how bad we are doing in the league. If brentford win both their  games in hand they go above us and we we will be 11th.

Thats pretty poor tbh

Thanks for that bit of good cheer!  The PL from 10th up to 4th is completely unpredictable.  Any of the teams in that pack could finish 10th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on February 26, 2025, 12:50:13 PM
So just for context how bad we are doing in the league. If brentford win both their  games in hand they go above us and we we will be 11th.

Thats pretty poor tbh

Thanks for that bit of good cheer!  The PL from 10th up to 4th is completely unpredictable.  Any of the teams in that pack could finish 10th.

True, but all things considered and at this stage of the season I'd fancy a team that is currently on a downwards trajectory would generally be more likely to take that 10th spot than one that is currently on an upwards one.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on February 26, 2025, 01:26:19 PM
Not many are on upward trajectories though - they're all inconsistent. Bournemouth and Forest have started to lose, Newcastle have wobbled lately, Chelsea on an iffy run, Brighton draw a lot, not even Citeh are reliable. There's no one really in-form. Beware of the Brentford I guess. And we have them next, away.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 26, 2025, 02:30:13 PM
So just for context how bad we are doing in the league. If brentford win both their  games in hand they go above us and we we will be 11th.

Thats pretty poor tbh

Thanks for that bit of good cheer!  The PL from 10th up to 4th is completely unpredictable.  Any of the teams in that pack could finish 10th.

You are welcome. Its not about cheer though, its about pointing out how badly we ard doing in the league as the evidence is there for all to see. 10th playing  more games than anyone. Its not like we have had that tough games in the last 5-6 games barring liverpool and maybe chelsea

There  is zero chance of top 5 if you cant win a away game for toffee
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LukeJames on February 26, 2025, 02:50:47 PM
We did beat Everton away.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VinnieChase84 on February 26, 2025, 03:23:26 PM
We have now conceded 2 or more goals in 50% of our league games and have the worst conceded column outside of the bottom 5. No way on earth we can get any europe with those stats let alone Champ league in my brutal opinion
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on February 26, 2025, 03:49:16 PM
So just for context how bad we are doing in the league. If brentford win both their  games in hand they go above us and we we will be 11th.

Thats pretty poor tbh

Not if we beat Brentford in a couple of weeks time
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on February 26, 2025, 03:51:51 PM
We have now conceded 2 or more goals in 50% of our league games and have the worst conceded column outside of the bottom 5. No way on earth we can get any europe with those stats let alone Champ league in my brutal opinion

26 times we've conceded at least 2 in our last 50 league games. It's not just this season, it's a long term problem not addressed by the manager or coaching staff. Loaning more forwards isn't going to help.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 26, 2025, 04:14:17 PM
We did beat Everton away.

Must admit i didn forget  that one luke thanks for reminder

Im glad we played them when we did as they would beat us now based on the wolves and palace away games
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on February 26, 2025, 04:45:56 PM
We have now conceded 2 or more goals in 50% of our league games and have the worst conceded column outside of the bottom 5. No way on earth we can get any europe with those stats let alone Champ league in my brutal opinion

26 times we've conceded at least 2 in our last 50 league games. It's not just this season, it's a long term problem not addressed by the manager or coaching staff. Loaning more forwards isn't going to help.
This is the thing I don’t get, he is an elite coach. You would think he would have noticed this and done something about it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 26, 2025, 05:32:21 PM
We did beat Everton away.

Must admit i didn forget  that one luke thanks for reminder

Im glad we played them when we did as they would beat us now based on the wolves and palace away games

I knew there was a reason Luke referenced that particular game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on February 26, 2025, 05:35:13 PM
We did beat Everton away.

Must admit i didn forget  that one luke thanks for reminder

Im glad we played them when we did as they would beat us now based on the wolves and palace away games

I knew there was a reason Luke referenced that particular game.

It’s always Werther reminder
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SaddVillan on February 26, 2025, 10:11:53 PM
Straw clutching time.

Looks like 5th spot will qualify for the Champs League next season (extra place on the old coefficient rigmarole).

Anyway, if justice is done and City maintain their current position of 4th but get a humongous points deduction post season sufficient to relegate them, then the club finishing 5th moves up to 4th and the club finishing in 6th spot will climb to 5th!!

Currently that's Toon on 44 points.

We're on 42.

Just need to stop pissing about
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 26, 2025, 10:41:38 PM
As far as im concerned  yesterday was another opportunity  missed. Story of our season in the league
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV84 on February 26, 2025, 10:53:00 PM
We're still in contention for it, but it's largely down to other results going our way. We've been riding that luck for far too long now. 5th spot will go to whichever team can string even 2 or 3 wins together in a row, and at the moment that really doesn't feel like us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: brontebilly on February 27, 2025, 12:07:55 AM
We did beat Everton away.

A fortunate enough win if memory serves correctly with DCL missing a sitter at the death.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on February 27, 2025, 06:28:35 AM
We are 10th, we would need to overhaul 5 teams to make 5th.


Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on February 27, 2025, 06:42:58 AM
If we can grab something against Brentford, then get the majority of our main stays back in the weeks off from there then there's a slight chance. But we really need 8 wins out last 10 so....
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on February 27, 2025, 07:01:46 AM
7 and 2 draws could be enough.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Nunkin1965 on February 27, 2025, 07:42:15 AM
7 clubs separated by 5 points chasing probably 2 CL places gives all of us a chance.
Us being involved in a couple of extra tournaments makes it a tough challenge though.
We've got a shot at it but were just as likely to finish 5th or 10th with our inconsistency!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on February 27, 2025, 07:49:53 AM
No - we have played a game more and have a dire goal difference and have won 1 away game since October.

We have to go to Bournemouth Brighton and City who based on the above will likely tonk us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 27, 2025, 09:02:13 AM
All of the other teams involved will be thinking that we are likely to put a run together.  It's a fan mentality to worry about missing out.  I was speaking to a Newcastle fan the other day and they were convinced they'd fuck up and that we'd find a run of wins to jump above them. 

The truth is it's a total lottery at this point.  We shouldn't give up.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 27, 2025, 09:02:40 AM
But no more 5 at the back nonsense though please! 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on February 27, 2025, 09:44:44 AM
We've won 1 of the last 4 at home, 1 of the last 9 away and 1 of the last 7 games. We're not filling me with confidence.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on February 27, 2025, 10:57:56 AM
But no more 5 at the back nonsense though please! 

Think our last win playing 5 at the back may have been when Brian Little was our manager.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Proposition Joe on February 27, 2025, 11:12:17 AM
Too many of the players who were key to our amazing season last season have not been at the races this season:
Martinez
Bailey
Konsa
Even Watkins and McGinn have had as many bad games as good.

To have so many lose form is either unfortunate or careless - depending on how things are behind the scene. The infamous Emery Overload effect?

Remember the season when Emery took over and we went away to Brighton? We nicked a goal and then killed the game with a back six, and never looked like conceding. I wish we could go back to that for away games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Towser on February 27, 2025, 11:16:06 AM
Only way I can see us qualifying is if we win it.

I get the distinct impression we gave up on top 4 (or 5) a while ago and we are going all out for a FA Cup and/ or Champions League win, something seems very different in those games so far.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 27, 2025, 11:16:22 AM
Remember the season when Emery took over and we went away to Brighton? We nicked a goal and then killed the game with a back six, and never looked like conceding. I wish we could go back to that for away games.

That would require us to score first.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on February 27, 2025, 11:43:34 AM
Only way I can see us qualifying is if we win it.

I get the distinct impression we gave up on top 4 (or 5) a while ago and we are going all out for a FA Cup and/ or Champions League win, something seems very different in those games so far.

Champions League is just about making as much money as we can.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on February 27, 2025, 11:54:06 AM
Remember the season when Emery took over and we went away to Brighton? We nicked a goal and then killed the game with a back six, and never looked like conceding. I wish we could go back to that for away games.

That would require us to score first.

Actually, Brighton scored in the first minute of that match. Probably with their first shot on target, imagine that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: MplsVilla on February 27, 2025, 12:31:53 PM
If someone can confirm which trophy we are focused on, I'd love to know. I know we have a lot of injuries, but based on the last 5 or 6 games, I cannot figure out what Unai is prioritizing given his starting line-ups and substitutions.

I want to be an optimist, but I'm not sure we qualify for Europe, let alone the Champions League based on our league position. The market consensus is that we are 5 or 6/1 to finish in the top 6. With most bookmakers having us finish 9th and I wouldn't bet on us finishing higher.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on February 27, 2025, 02:00:20 PM
Remember the season when Emery took over and we went away to Brighton? We nicked a goal and then killed the game with a back six, and never looked like conceding. I wish we could go back to that for away games.

That would require us to score first.

We didn’t score first in that game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on February 27, 2025, 02:17:18 PM
Remember the season when Emery took over and we went away to Brighton? We nicked a goal and then killed the game with a back six, and never looked like conceding. I wish we could go back to that for away games.

That would require us to score first.

We didn’t score first in that game.

I know.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on February 27, 2025, 03:21:28 PM
We've won 1 of the last 4 at home, 1 of the last 9 away and 1 of the last 7 games. We're not filling me with confidence.

Me neither! My point is that every fan of the other clubs involved probably feels something similar.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on February 27, 2025, 04:28:58 PM
Emery is not throwing the league for the cups. He forever bangs on about how the league comes first.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on February 27, 2025, 04:31:24 PM
Emery is not throwing the league for the cups. He forever bangs on about how the league comes first.
He probably sees any European qualification as a priority.
Although I would happily miss out on the conference next year and give it a real go in the League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 27, 2025, 07:16:24 PM
If we finished in champions league this season it would be a bigger achievement  than last season tbh.

I dont even think we will finish in a conference  spot tbh as we are so defensively  shite and cant get any decent run of form in the league.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on February 27, 2025, 10:31:46 PM
If we finished in champions league this season it would be a bigger achievement  than last season tbh.

I dont even think we will finish in a conference  spot tbh as we are so defensively  shite and cant get any decent run of form in the league.

Why don't you just give in then? Genuinely you seem completely convinced that we're utterly doomed and that everything is done, What's the point? I worry you'll make yourself ill.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 28, 2025, 07:39:12 AM
If we finished in champions league this season it would be a bigger achievement  than last season tbh.

I dont even think we will finish in a conference  spot tbh as we are so defensively  shite and cant get any decent run of form in the league.

Why don't you just give in then? Genuinely you seem completely convinced that we're utterly doomed and that everything is done, What's the point? I worry you'll make yourself ill.

I think your massively exaggerating not sure why. If you think we can get champions league thats your choice  not goubg to criticise  you for believing that.

But your wording here is abit odd. 'Doomed' where have i said we are doomed? Doomed is saying something like we will finish bottom half, have to sell half our team in summer as they will all want to leave, or that we will be fighting relegation. I have said none of that in the above post. All i am merely saying is that its massively  unlikley  that will will finish top 5 because we are currently 10th playing catchup, have a poorer GD, played a game more, cant defend and cant consistently  win away from home. Those are not opinions those are facts. Last season we were in the top 5 at that stage so to finish in top 5 now it would be a remarkable  achievement  bigger than last season.

Cant see it myself. You dont need worry about my health but thanks for your concern! Im sleeping well and don't lose sleep other it. Its only football doesnt have a impact on my life outside this forum.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on February 28, 2025, 07:44:13 AM
Why say the same thing once or twice when you can say it over and over again?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on February 28, 2025, 09:24:04 AM
Why say the same thing once or twice when you can say it over and over again?

Ita called responding to a post

You may have a heard of it before
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Baldy on February 28, 2025, 09:42:01 AM
Remarkably, no other teams are grabbing the bull by the horns and despite our underwhelming form we are still in with a chance.

Sort out the feckin injuries and we are still in with a shout.

Massive improvement needed though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on February 28, 2025, 11:06:08 AM
I think the biggest problem is we would need to go on a winning run to make it and there is absolutely nothing to suggest that’s remotely possible.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on February 28, 2025, 11:09:02 AM
I think the biggest problem is we would need to go on a winning run to make it and there is absolutely nothing to suggest that’s remotely possible.
It would require a radical change in style and tactics ( not 3 at the fkin back) and I just don’t see that happening.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on February 28, 2025, 11:18:55 AM
A lot is being said about playing 3 at the back but we often take that shape when in possession. We controlled the first 30 minutes, should have been ahead and were unlucky to have a goal ruled out. We conceded in their first attack, which has been a common occurrence this season, regardless of the set-up. It was the second half when we fell apart, when he had switched to a back 4. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on February 28, 2025, 12:40:54 PM
Did we switch back to that? Asking as he removed Garcia for Bailey but Konsa / Disasi / Bogarde didn't seem to be moved that far right, and in two of the goals, Bailey is playing RB.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on February 28, 2025, 03:47:25 PM
Did we switch back to that? Asking as he removed Garcia for Bailey but Konsa / Disasi / Bogarde didn't seem to be moved that far right, and in two of the goals, Bailey is playing RB.

Yeah, Warnock said we changed back on MOTD, but my recollection was that Bailey was still really deep.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on February 28, 2025, 04:50:10 PM
Watching it live I thought Bailey was RWB but I've seen a lot of mentions of the shape being changed at half time. It's one thing that can be hard to tell not watching in person.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on March 08, 2025, 08:34:59 PM
Tomorrow
Chelsea v Leicester
Spurs v Bournemouth

Mon
West Ham v Newcastle

Sat
Ipswich v Forest
Man C v Brighton
Bournemouth v Brentford

Sun
Arsenal v Chelsea
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on March 08, 2025, 08:38:01 PM
Would also add Fulham in there because if they win the game in hand, they go above us.

Sunday 16th
Fulham v Spurs
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on March 08, 2025, 08:38:31 PM
Hold on one second. Do we have to cheer for fucking Tottenham, tomorrow?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on March 08, 2025, 08:39:35 PM
For two weeks unfortunately. Although draws will be fine.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on March 08, 2025, 08:44:51 PM
We're 2 points off the top 4 right now, if we're less than 5 points off the top 4 when we play our next league game I'll be stunned. 

Our next two league games are Brighton and Forest, we absolutely need at least 4 points from those two games, not least to maintain momentum, but they are also genuine contenders for European places themselves.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on March 08, 2025, 08:46:16 PM
Still no. Beat Brighton and Forest and we'll talk.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Legion on March 08, 2025, 09:00:34 PM
Unlikely.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on March 08, 2025, 09:06:18 PM
Still no. Beat Brighton and Forest and we'll talk.

Yep that's my thoughts

We have to beat both and Newcastle and not lose to Bounemouth or Cite-eh. 11 points.

That is a tall order but who knows with the break coming up.

ManU, Spuds, Fulham - minimum 7 points

Saints 3 points

65 may just be enough for 5th.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TelfordVilla on March 08, 2025, 09:32:49 PM
One game at a time. They are all winnable in isolation.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on March 08, 2025, 09:33:20 PM
I'll be disappointed if we don't.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Andy_Lochhead_in_the_air on March 08, 2025, 09:36:21 PM
Bookies odds always seem to be Top 4 or Top 6, can't see any odds for Top 5.

I reckon 62 or 63 points may be enough for 5th, with our inferior goal difference we would probably need the 63. So 18 points from 9 games. W 5, D 3, L 1.
A tall order but maybe we can go Man U last game needing a win to take the last champs league spot at the expense of Man City. It would be the most fans at Old Trafford cheering a Villa win since 1977.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on March 08, 2025, 09:39:03 PM
A tall order but maybe we can go Man U last game needing a win to take the last champs league spot at the expense of Man City.

I'd take that now, especially if Citeh were still in the mix. It could be payback for Keith Curle. ;)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on March 08, 2025, 09:41:44 PM
As Mellin said.

If we do it, it will have to be a last third of the season to rival 2019 or 2023.

But we've won our last three, are in the last sixteen of the Champions League and are second favourites to win the FA Cup. So we're going the right way about doing it at last.

Anything less than four points against Brighton and Forest, and chuck everything in the FA Cup basket though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on March 08, 2025, 10:15:46 PM
I agree with Mellin.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on March 08, 2025, 10:42:41 PM
What percentage do those gobshite geeks at Opta have us on now?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on March 08, 2025, 10:57:14 PM
Still think it's too late .
All that calamitous defending in the first half of the season will cost us , the GD doesnt lie . We have to keep going but I think we are too late .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on March 08, 2025, 10:58:36 PM
It’s demonstrably not “too late” but what it needs is for us to win a lot of games between now and the end of the season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on March 08, 2025, 11:32:46 PM
Can probably only afford to lose one more game, maybe two if we win all the others. That demonstrates what a tall order it is. Will be a great end to the season if we do it. I'd trade it for FA cup though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Cliftonville Villlain on March 09, 2025, 02:26:47 AM
League-wise its been calamitous compared to last year but somehow we"re still only two points off that 4th Champions League spot. We're in the CL quarter-finals (hopefully!), pushing for that 4th or 5th CL spot and in an FA Cup quarter-final. I've never seen Villa win the FA Cup so that's the one I want. Villa can take anyone in the CL and that's from someone who was in Brussels and Rotterdam. Because we have Unai Emery.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eye digress on March 09, 2025, 06:50:37 AM
Following 22-23 (Conference qualification) and 23-24 (Chumps’ qualification, Europa semi), we are entering the business end of the season with more irons in the fire (Chumps’ qualification, FA Cup, Chumps’ quarters) than ever.

Squad health is improving, and we’ve added some genuine star quality.

So although the league form has been poor, we do get to find out this year whether we are able to “grow” into champions.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on March 09, 2025, 07:07:05 AM
I think we will need to win 6 out of the 9 left.
Not losing to Brighton or Bournemouth.
Yesterday the optima stats said we had a less than 1% chance.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TelfordVilla on March 09, 2025, 07:16:10 AM
Optima and all social media pundits just look at the current table and what has gone before. The difference is what is to come can be totally different for Villa as we have new players, fresh legs, and previous history of picking off all those teams currently ahead of us, one by one with head to head wins.
We've done it before and no other team has strengthened their squad in January.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: jwarry on March 09, 2025, 08:21:24 AM
We have to play Brighton, Forest, Citeh, Newcastle and Bournemouth, so yes it’s still doable, but Will be a tall order to best all of them.  Of greater concern is that our last two games are against our bogey teams
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Richard on March 09, 2025, 09:10:49 AM
We have to play Brighton, Forest, Citeh, Newcastle and Bournemouth, so yes it’s still doable, but Will be a tall order to best all of them.  Of greater concern is that our last two games are against our bogey teams

Maybe but we've already beaten Spurs at home this season and Manure are rubbish.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on March 09, 2025, 12:28:51 PM
Think we had to win yesterday to have any chance given all our rivals will have played one league game (or two in the case of Chelsea and Newcastle) by the time we play again.

After Forest beat Citeh, it would have been highly unlikely to catch them unless we won last night. They'll still probably get one of the three spots but if we beat them at VP, they can potentially be roped-in.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on March 09, 2025, 12:35:27 PM
After Forest beat Citeh, it would have been highly unlikely to catch them unless we won last night. They'll still probably get one of the three spots but if we beat them at VP, they can potentially be roped-in.

Looking at their remaining fixtures, a Citeh win would have been a much better result for us yesterday.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on March 09, 2025, 01:06:46 PM
Would it? I think Forest's run-in is tough enough.

Also, if we do finish the job against Bruges, we'll have the QF away leg after playing Forest the Saturday evening before. We'll then have the "nicest" league game between the first and second leg - Southampton (away) with the home second leg on the following midweek after which we'll play Newcastle at home on the next Saturday evening.

The lads aren't going to be training much in April. Game, rest and recovery and Uncle Unai's classroom (apparently modelled on Andy Townsend's Tactics Truck circa 2001 on ITV).

I dont know if the Tues/Weds have been already decided on the CL QF ties ?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on March 09, 2025, 01:18:29 PM
Would it? I think Forest's run-in is tough enough.

That was my point. It's going to be tough to overhaul Citeh given their fixtures, so it would have been better to be only 3 points behind Forest with them still to come to Villa Park.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on March 09, 2025, 02:52:31 PM
Ah Citeh have difficult games too and they've lost half of their last 20 or something. They're a soft touch away from home like us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on March 09, 2025, 03:50:50 PM
I think we have left it abit too late tbh. It is in our hands though as we have to play alot of the teams around ua. We can beat all of them who knows. I cant see us getting past liverpool in champions  league tbh. So once those games are out the way we will be fully focused on league should we go out. And fa cup if we beat Preston
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on March 09, 2025, 03:56:56 PM
I think we have left it abit too late tbh. It is in our hands though as we have to play alot of the teams around ua. We can beat all of them who knows. I cant see us getting past liverpool in champions  league tbh. So once those games are out the way we will be fully focused on league should we go out. And fa cup if we beat Preston

I dont think we've left it late at all and Liverpool haven't got through their Champions League game yet.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on March 09, 2025, 04:54:37 PM
I think we have left it abit too late tbh. It is in our hands though as we have to play alot of the teams around ua. We can beat all of them who knows. I cant see us getting past liverpool in champions  league tbh. So once those games are out the way we will be fully focused on league should we go out. And fa cup if we beat Preston

 Liverpool haven't got through their Champions League game yet.
Neither have we.
We're in a strong position but the tie is far from over.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aldridgeboy on March 09, 2025, 05:58:31 PM
Ah Citeh have difficult games too and they've lost half of their last 20 or something. They're a soft touch away from home like us.

And a possible points deduction to come ?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on March 09, 2025, 07:34:16 PM
April is shaping up to be a tough month if we do make it through to the QFs of the Champions League and beat Preston in the FA Cup.  Will look like:

Sun 30th March - Preston (A)
Wed 2nd April - Brighton (A)
Sat 5th April - Forest (H)
Tue 8th or Wed 9th April - Liverpool / PSG?
Sat 12th April - Southampton (A)
Tue 15th or Wed 16th April - Liverpool / PSG?
Sat 19th April - Newcastle (H)
Mon 28th April - Manchester City (A) (could be Semi-Final weekend)

So that's 8 fixtures in just under a month.  They could possibly be FA Cup quarter and semi finals, two legs of a Champions League quarter final and 3 or possibly even four league games (if us and Manchester City don't make the FA Cup semi-finals) against teans who we are competing for Champions League spots with. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on March 09, 2025, 07:57:17 PM
I think it's now highly unlikely that we will qualify for the Champions League. A place in the Europa, either by finishing 6th in the league or winning the FA Cup, would be really good. Question then is, if a place in the Conference is what we end up with, would that be good for us or not?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on March 09, 2025, 07:59:38 PM
April is shaping up to be a tough month if we do make it through to the QFs of the Champions League and beat Preston in the FA Cup.  Will look like:

Sun 30th March - Preston (A)
Wed 2nd April - Brighton (A)
Sat 5th April - Forest (H)
Tue 8th or Wed 9th April - Liverpool / PSG?
Sat 12th April - Southampton (A)
Tue 15th or Wed 16th April - Liverpool / PSG?
Sat 19th April - Newcastle (H)
Mon 28th April - Manchester City (A) (could be Semi-Final weekend)

So that's 8 fixtures in just under a month.  They could possibly be FA Cup quarter and semi finals, two legs of a Champions League quarter final and 3 or possibly even four league games (if us and Manchester City don't make the FA Cup semi-finals) against teans who we are competing for Champions League spots with. 


That's what we signed up for.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on March 09, 2025, 08:03:38 PM
April is shaping up to be a tough month if we do make it through to the QFs of the Champions League and beat Preston in the FA Cup.  Will look like:

Sun 30th March - Preston (A)
Wed 2nd April - Brighton (A)
Sat 5th April - Forest (H)
Tue 8th or Wed 9th April - Liverpool / PSG?
Sat 12th April - Southampton (A)
Tue 15th or Wed 16th April - Liverpool / PSG?
Sat 19th April - Newcastle (H)
Mon 28th April - Manchester City (A) (could be Semi-Final weekend)

So that's 8 fixtures in just under a month.  They could possibly be FA Cup quarter and semi finals, two legs of a Champions League quarter final and 3 or possibly even four league games (if us and Manchester City don't make the FA Cup semi-finals) against teans who we are competing for Champions League spots with.

May will be just as bad if we progress in both cups.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: brontebilly on March 09, 2025, 08:06:39 PM
Liverpool should have title won by the time of their game at Brighton. Might be playing reserves that day.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on March 09, 2025, 09:10:26 PM
I think we have left it abit too late tbh. It is in our hands though as we have to play alot of the teams around ua. We can beat all of them who knows. I cant see us getting past liverpool in champions  league tbh. So once those games are out the way we will be fully focused on league should we go out. And fa cup if we beat Preston

I dont think we've left it late at all and Liverpool haven't got through their Champions League game yet.

Your entitled  to your opinion but i disagree simply because when was the last time we sat in the top four for more than a week this season? We have been hovering outside the top 5 for most of the season. Compare that to last season where we sat in top four near enough all season. We are leaving it late to push a  challenge.

Either have we then on that basis but in my opinion PSG are not winning at anfield. Liverpool were average  in paris and still managed  to keep a clean sheet and win the game. At anfield liverpool  are a completely  different  animal. I would be shocked if they dont win that game comfortably
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on March 09, 2025, 09:13:20 PM
Wasn't that long ago Spurs were out before a ball had been kicked against Man City.

Anything can happen and we're absolutely capable of putting out Liverpool if we're on it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on March 09, 2025, 09:15:52 PM
We haven't done enough in the key months. Not happening now .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on March 09, 2025, 09:24:21 PM
If we do get through and end up playing Liverpool, I think we're capable of beating them over two legs. We could have beaten them a couple of weeks ago.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on March 09, 2025, 09:45:14 PM
If we do get through and end up playing Liverpool, I think we're capable of beating them over two legs. We could have beaten them a couple of weeks ago.

We could beat them over two legs yeah, but they are a better side and two legs typically favours better sides. If we were to have a chance it’d be that the second leg would be at Villa Park.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on March 09, 2025, 09:46:37 PM
Wasn't that long ago Spurs were out before a ball had been kicked against Man City.

Anything can happen and we're absolutely capable of putting out Liverpool if we're on it.

Of course anything is possible. But beating them over two legs is a lot more difficult  than one game that's for sure. We also tend to do very poorly at anfield. Thats something we would have to vastly improve on if we are to have any chance.

On a side note, i jad a look at chelseas remaining fixtures they ahve a very tough run in. They could be in trouble if they dont hit abit of form
If we do get through and end up playing Liverpool, I think we're capable of beating them over two legs. We could have beaten them a couple of weeks ago.

We could beat them over two legs yeah, but they are a better side and two legs typically favours better sides. If we were to have a chance it’d be that the second leg would be at Villa Park.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on March 09, 2025, 10:39:29 PM
If we do get through and end up playing Liverpool, I think we're capable of beating them over two legs. We could have beaten them a couple of weeks ago.

I don't think we have played too badly against them either time. There's definitely hope.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on March 09, 2025, 11:17:23 PM
April is shaping up to be a tough month if we do make it through to the QFs of the Champions League and beat Preston in the FA Cup.  Will look like:

Sun 30th March - Preston (A)
Wed 2nd April - Brighton (A)
Sat 5th April - Forest (H)
Tue 8th or Wed 9th April - Liverpool / PSG?
Sat 12th April - Southampton (A)
Tue 15th or Wed 16th April - Liverpool / PSG?
Sat 19th April - Newcastle (H)
Mon 28th April - Manchester City (A) (could be Semi-Final weekend)

So that's 8 fixtures in just under a month.  They could possibly be FA Cup quarter and semi finals, two legs of a Champions League quarter final and 3 or possibly even four league games (if us and Manchester City don't make the FA Cup semi-finals) against teans who we are competing for Champions League spots with. 


That's what we signed up for.

Yep, agree with that entirely and it is shaping up to be a very exciting month.  I just look at that fixture list and can't help but think that something has got to give in at least one or maybe even more of those games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aldridgeboy on March 10, 2025, 12:12:45 AM
Yes that is a mental fixture list , but after a two and a half week break ? So they will be refreshed, hungry, and a big push for silverware ( FA cup)

We’ve wanted this for years. Come April, and still in 3 competitions ( I’ll concede the league is for CL not the title )
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Martyn Smith on March 10, 2025, 12:30:03 AM
I have a feeling we'll be in the Europa next season, either thru league position or winning the FA Cup
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rory on March 10, 2025, 12:48:25 AM
I have a feeling we'll be in the Europa next season, either thru league position or winning the FA Cup

I think Europa qualification could be pretty important.

The money might be worlds apart, but in terms of quality, the gulf between CL and Europa is smaller than ever. Particularly in England.

It's not like the days of the 'top four', competing for four CL places and the Europa was decidedly second tier. In those times, the distinction was so clear that Tottenham qualified once and suddenly became a 'big club'.

But now, 'elite' clubs are in Europa every year. Playing in the PL and being in the Europa is as attractive to good players as one guaranteed season in the CL was for an Italian/French/German team 20 years ago.

I don't think we need CL. But we do need Europe.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on March 10, 2025, 01:27:56 AM
I dunno...top players  including ones we currently have, want CL. So we'll have a job on our hands in the summer with recruitment and retention if we're not in Big Cup.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rory on March 10, 2025, 01:48:51 AM
I dunno...top players  including ones we currently have, want CL. So we'll have a job on our hands in the summer with recruitment and retention if we're not in Big Cup.

But equally, there are a diminishing number of clubs that can guarantee CL football and pay what we can in wages.

Three in Spain, three or four in Italy, one or two in Germany, one in France. Anything to an English club will involve a premium.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: KingstandingVilla on March 10, 2025, 04:09:32 AM
It may be easier to look at a bigger slightly long term picture here.

The chance of us winning the FA Cup is higher than the chance of us winning the CL or qualifying for the CL through top 4/5. This alone puts in the Europa as would our probable league finish.. Not the glamour of the CL but European footballl for a 3rd year and Big Ears in the trophy cabinet the fan base would take this all day

Next season... Unia may view winning the Europa as easier than finishing in the the top 4/5 this would then give CL football for a second season in 3 and have us WELL established as a force in the game where people will want to come and play for us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ozzjim on March 10, 2025, 07:58:55 AM
Looking at the sides left in the Europa, I'd fancy us to win it this season if we were in it.

Not getting CL must have been budgeted from the start, a cursory glance at Newcastle last season shows how hard CL to PL is too manage without players that have been there and done it, getting up for the biggest games midweek then doing it again against an increasingly competitive premier league, then lol at our injury list and the players who left.

Forest will find this out next season too.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dick Edwards on March 10, 2025, 08:02:59 AM
I have a feeling we'll be in the Europa next season, either thru league position or winning the FA Cup
Given our inconsistent form this season that would be a very acceptable outcome
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: London Villan on March 10, 2025, 10:22:59 AM
If Forest do qualify, they will implode due to all the forced sales.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on March 10, 2025, 12:55:59 PM
Looking at the sides left in the Europa, I'd fancy us to win it this season if we were in it.


We did say this about the Conference League, though. Especially as West Ham had just won it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on March 10, 2025, 02:16:47 PM
Think i would rather be in conference  than europa as the games will be less demanding and we can also focus on the league. Europa blt so much

Looking at the level of teams in the conference  compared to last season its alot poorer standard
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rougegorge on March 10, 2025, 02:34:00 PM
As a minimum, if we don't win the FA Cup, we need to finish 8th to get into Europe. I would be OK with any European qualification for next season.

However, that is also based on the assumption that the top 5 get into next year's CL, a team outside the top 8 does not win the FA Cup (eg Crystal Palace/Fulham), and that if Newcastle were to win the League Cup they finish in the top 8.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on March 10, 2025, 02:41:15 PM
Think i would rather be in conference  than europa as the games will be less demanding and we can also focus on the league. Europa blt so much

Looking at the level of teams in the conference  compared to last season its alot poorer standard

Huh? You’d rather play in the 3rd tier competition rather than the one spurs and Man Utd are STILL in?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on March 10, 2025, 02:44:00 PM
The Conference is hard to take seriously as a competition. Some nice memories of it but I'd rather not be in it next season, it feels like it should be for non-powerful clubs ie no one from England.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on March 10, 2025, 02:48:21 PM
The Conference is hard to take seriously as a competition. Some nice memories of it but I'd rather not be in it next season, it feels like it should be for non-powerful clubs ie no one from England.

This season it feels like the European equivalent of the EFL Trophy.

*I reserve the right to change my mind should we qualify for it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on March 10, 2025, 02:51:27 PM
The Conference is much worse this season, and it will be next season, both largely as a result of no-one dropping down from the Europa League. We’d win it easily I reckon, and I’d be very happy about that. God knows West Ham were.

I think we’d have a good chance in the Europa League too mind.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on March 10, 2025, 02:52:00 PM
I'll be happy with any European competition. We spent a decade stinking out the leagues so i'm not going all BBB after a couple of good seasons.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on March 10, 2025, 02:58:25 PM
If we don't win a trophy this season, I think the Conference League would be a good chance to get rid of that dreadful record, if we qualified. We can start turning our nose up at it after we've won a bloody trophy again.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on March 10, 2025, 03:26:43 PM
April is shaping up to be a tough month if we do make it through to the QFs of the Champions League and beat Preston in the FA Cup.  Will look like:

Sun 30th March - Preston (A)
Wed 2nd April - Brighton (A)
Sat 5th April - Forest (H)
Tue 8th or Wed 9th April - Liverpool / PSG?
Sat 12th April - Southampton (A)
Tue 15th or Wed 16th April - Liverpool / PSG?
Sat 19th April - Newcastle (H)
Mon 28th April - Manchester City (A) (could be Semi-Final weekend)

So that's 8 fixtures in just under a month.  They could possibly be FA Cup quarter and semi finals, two legs of a Champions League quarter final and 3 or possibly even four league games (if us and Manchester City don't make the FA Cup semi-finals) against teans who we are competing for Champions League spots with.
Having seen this I think it is even more unlikely we will qualify. But I have been envious in the past of clubs with that sort of fixture pile up at the business end of the season.
Expect an exiting ride with a few dissapointments, not too many hopefully.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on March 10, 2025, 03:43:57 PM
The Conference is hard to take seriously as a competition. Some nice memories of it but I'd rather not be in it next season, it feels like it should be for non-powerful clubs ie no one from England.
That's what it was designed for in essence , smaller nations clubs etc. A European Papa Johns . Rather not be in it and focus on the league and domestic cups.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ventnorVillain on March 10, 2025, 03:51:50 PM
April is shaping up to be a tough month if we do make it through to the QFs of the Champions League and beat Preston in the FA Cup.  Will look like:

Sun 30th March - Preston (A)
Wed 2nd April - Brighton (A)
Sat 5th April - Forest (H)
Tue 8th or Wed 9th April - Liverpool / PSG?
Sat 12th April - Southampton (A)
Tue 15th or Wed 16th April - Liverpool / PSG?












Sat 19th April - Newcastle (H)
Mon 28th April - Manchester City (A) (could be Semi-Final weekend)

So that's 8 fixtures in just under a month.  They could possibly be FA Cup quarter and semi finals, two legs of a Champions League quarter final and 3 or possibly even four league games (if us and Manchester City don't make the FA Cup semi-finals) against teans who we are competing for Champions League spots with.
Having seen this I think it is even more unlikely we will qualify. But I have been envious in the past of clubs with that sort of fixture pile up at the business end of the season.
Expect an exiting ride with a few dissapointments, not too many hopefully.

I hope it's exciting ride rather than exiting one as this implies some major disappointments.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Pat Mustard on March 10, 2025, 03:56:57 PM
April is shaping up to be a tough month if we do make it through to the QFs of the Champions League and beat Preston in the FA Cup.  Will look like:

Sun 30th March - Preston (A)
Wed 2nd April - Brighton (A)
Sat 5th April - Forest (H)
Tue 8th or Wed 9th April - Liverpool / PSG?
Sat 12th April - Southampton (A)
Tue 15th or Wed 16th April - Liverpool / PSG?
Sat 19th April - Newcastle (H)
Mon 28th April - Manchester City (A) (could be Semi-Final weekend)

So that's 8 fixtures in just under a month.  They could possibly be FA Cup quarter and semi finals, two legs of a Champions League quarter final and 3 or possibly even four league games (if us and Manchester City don't make the FA Cup semi-finals) against teans who we are competing for Champions League spots with.

Glass half-full view - we have close to a 3 week break going into this period, the squad will be fully fit, and no player is going to want to miss out.  Assuming there is a bit of rotation in certain matches, every player will be at full pelt to try and get into the team for all of the big games.

These are the kinds of months that can define a team for an era.  We haven't hit our stride over a prolonged period at any point this season, but this would be the perfect time to do it.  We also seem to have just about rediscovered out ability to grind out a result as well.

Honestly, I don't think I've been as excited about a month of fixtures since 1996.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: London Villan on March 10, 2025, 04:01:49 PM
I'm hoping Unai's tactics of us playing within ourselves, at a low tempo, is all part of his master plan to come charging round (the metaphorical) last bend and over the final flight of fences and win a trophy, and qualify for the CL next season...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on March 10, 2025, 04:14:19 PM
I'm hoping Unai's tactics of us playing within ourselves, at a low tempo, is all part of his master plan to come charging round (the metaphorical) last bend and over the final flight of fences and win a trophy, and qualify for the CL next season...

I suspect that's the plan. He does tend to know what he's doing...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Luffbralion on March 10, 2025, 04:26:28 PM
If, repeat if, we go through on Wednesday night, how will the home tie against Liverpool or PSG be first or second? Not sure how it works.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on March 10, 2025, 04:28:45 PM
We would be at home in the second leg. Same if we made it to the semis.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Luffbralion on March 10, 2025, 04:36:51 PM
Cheers....but, unfortunately. I'll be abroad for that one!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on March 10, 2025, 07:10:41 PM
Think i would rather be in conference  than europa as the games will be less demanding and we can also focus on the league. Europa blt so much

Looking at the level of teams in the conference  compared to last season its alot poorer standard

Huh? You’d rather play in the 3rd tier competition rather than the one spurs and Man Utd are STILL in?

Yes as i said, as it would allow us to focus on league as well. Look at the impact its having on manure and spurs  in the league compared to chelsea.

If there  was a massive financial difference in the competitions or europa wasnt on thursday would be more appealing.

Also  more chance of winning it

I agree with percy and CDs points  above also
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 11, 2025, 05:56:40 AM
4th and 5th place still in with a chance given fixtures.

If exclude top 2 then our competitors are 3rd to 10th
Forest Chelsea, Man City, Newcastle, Brighton are currently above us and Bournemouth and Fulham just behind with a game in hand.

Villa have to play all these teams apart from Chelsea. And a chance to gain 3pts each time

And I do think the next matches away to brighton has to be won for a start.

This weekend:
Man City v Brighton
Fulham v Spurs
Bournemouth v Brentford
Arsenal v Chelsea
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 11, 2025, 06:12:11 AM
These are the rivals for Champions League places fixtures remaining against each other where points can be won and lost.
Also their last game listed

still to play:

3rd. Forest 6pts ahead
Villa (a)
Last game of season Chelsea (h)


4th. Chelsea 4pts ahead
Fulham (a)
Newcastle (a)
last match of the season Forest  (a)

5th. Man City 2pts ahead
Brighton (h)
Villa (h)
Bournemouth (h)
last game of season Fulham (a)

6th. Newcastle 2pts ahead
Villa (a)
Brighton (a)
Chelsea (h)
last game of season Everton (h)

7th. Brighton 1pts ahead
Man City (a)
Villa (h)
Newcastle (h)
last game of season Spurs (a)

9th Bournemouth 1pts behind
Fulham (h)
Villa (h)
Man City (a)
last game of season Leicester (h)

10th Fulham 3pts behind
Bournemouth (a)
Chelsea (h)
Villa (a)
last game of season Man City (a)


Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 11, 2025, 06:16:52 AM
It’s going to be an exciting end to the season:

our must win matches still to play
Brighton (a)
Forest (h)
Newcastle (h)
Man City (a)
Fulham (h)
Bournemouth (a)

Last match of season (a) Man Utd


Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: stevo_st on March 11, 2025, 07:33:56 AM
Just dreamt we won the final 3-1 with late goals from Rogers and Asensio.
No idea who we were playing and who got the first, but pretty confident we’ll be in the champions league next season now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on March 11, 2025, 07:45:25 AM
Just dreamt we won the final 3-1 with late goals from Rogers and Asensio.
No idea who we were playing and who got the first, but pretty confident we’ll be in the champions league next season now.

*Races off to place bet*
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: jwarry on March 11, 2025, 08:05:26 AM
Wasn’t sure where to put this so put it here.  In The Times today ….

Aston Villa won the European Cup in 1982. As Unai Emery's present side try to emulate that feat this season, three heroes from Rotterdam have come together to reflect on the club's greatest night when Villa beat Bayern Munich 1-0.

Peter Withe, scorer of the game's only goal, goalkeeper Nigel Spink and Tony Morley, the winger, joined a video call to reminisce, ask whether Emery's side have what it takes to go all the way in the competition this year and debate how the current side measure up to their team of legends.
The trio, whose names are etched indelibly in Villa folklore, last came together for the funeral of former team-mate Gary Shaw in October.

 In 1982 Morley, 70, had laid on the bobbling cross for Withe, now 73 and living in Perth, western Australia, to turn home off a post in the 67th minute. At the other end Spink, the youngster of the trio at 66 and a relative unknown at the time, was performing his own heroics in only his second appearance for the club in 2½ years, repelling the Bundesliga champions after having replaced the injured Jimmy Rimmer in the ninth minute.
Spink
Bayern's players sat
gutted in the centre circle and I went to swap shirts with Manfred Müller, the goalkeeper. Around five years ago I exchanged emails with Bayern's museum about swapping back. Bayern were brilliant, showed me around and gave me a tour of the club museum. You felt their respect for former players. They wanted to publicise the swap and brought my shirt to the lunch table in a magnificent presentation box wrapped in tissue paper and accompanied by match photos from different angles I had never seen. My wife kicked me in the ankle under the table. I knew what she was thinking. Manfred's shirt was under the table in a tatty second-hand Sainsbury's bag.

Morley
Typical Spinksy. The occasion feels like yesterday and you slide back into banter. My memory is Pete was going to miss. His wonder goal off his ankle. He'd practised it for a long time.

Withe
We recreated the goal at a Villa supporters' club in Bordeaux around five years ago. We had a few drinks so it didn't come off my shin, although another time, I hit the post. I went to Munich to swap back shirts with Klaus Augenthaler — without the plastic bag. My goal was down to Gary Shaw's brilliance, taking the ball near the touchline and cutting inside Wolfgang Dremmler. One of my sayings used to be, “Gary, see you at the far post”, which ended my speech after his funeral. People told me they held back their emotions until I repeated it — and then cried their eyes out.

Morley
I had nights out with Gary and drank a few too many at times. He always said and, excuse the language, “That scouse bastard scored the goal to win the European Cup final” or “I should have been in the area”. It was tongue-in-cheek but there was a serious side. He would have given up his honours just to have scored that goal. A local lad. Everybody says Bayern battered us. We only conceded twice in the competition to Dynamo Berlin. Villa did a deal with Nike to wear their boots for the final, which were like concrete at the time. Gary and I did not as we had our own sponsors. Some lads got blisters. After I thought, “What if the boots cost us the cup?”

Spink sat on the substitutes' bench beside team-mate Pat Heard and Gary Newbon, the television broadcaster who disguised himself as a Villa kitman to get around Uefa's diktat that interviews must be 45 minutes after the match. ITV were scheduled to be off-air sooner. Tony Barton, the Villa manager, agreed to the stunt.

Spink
I was in the reserve team when they won the league with 14 players the previous season. We never saw them play as matches clashed and we practised in a separate part of the training ground. The step-up in quality was an eye-opener. It helped me that I didn't have a clue about Jimmy's neck injury. I didn't think for a minute I would get on and so had no nerves. Newbon dug me in the ribs and said, “Jimmy's not carrying on, you're on”. I sort of said, “Well, I can't! What? What?” It was literally that much of a surprise. I ran towards the Villa supporters and they didn't have an absolute clue who I was. Bayern stuck aimless balls into the box and I was able to get a feel of it. A surreal experience. I deliver freight and if I go to the Netherlands, someone will recognise me and chat about '82.

Withe tipped 26 bottles of champagne into the trophy, telling Ken McNaught it might be too heavy to lift.

Morley
The cup rim was too big. When we started to drink, it ran down your shirt. I felt the pressure of keeping the cup in England because Liverpool and Forest had won the previous four finals. The cup had been lifted by legends of the game like Alfredo Di Stéfano, Ferenc Puskás and Bobby Charlton. Inside I said, “Make this last, it might not happen again”. We paraded the real trophy back home, unlike now where teams get a replica and there are so many going around that even Pete has one in Australia…

Villa host Bruges with a 3-1 lead from the first leg on Wednesday and meet either Liverpool or PSG in the quarter-final should they progress. The Bruges goalkeeper Simon Mignolet joined Sunderland in 2010 after being scouted by Spink, then working for the club, and the pair have arranged to meet for a coffee before the game.

Spink
I'm going to drop a little sedative into his coffee!

Morley
PSG or Liverpool, a different level. Villa will need an A-game or bye-bye.

Withe
Look at Plymouth Argyle beating Liverpool. Anything can happen and
remember we came through tough games behind the Iron Curtain. We were 100 per cent better than the team now — stronger and could compete more.

Morley
I don't mean this disrespectfully. We won the league and European Cup and until they do, you can't compare the teams. There is no reason why they can't compete for it in five years as Villa are heading in one direction. Credit the manager and owners for the amount of money put in. They need a trophy. I think it'll be the FA Cup. It's boring at times, but that's the way football is now. Different eras. I wouldn't change one player for that side. Conditions are different. All this crap about present players being fitter is a load of rubbish. No one trained like we did. They now have a better rate of recovery with nutrition, scientific advice and technology. The three of us witnessed what Villa do when we visited the training ground in autumn. Pete, you spotted that the manager notices if a player is not 100 per cent and he'll speak to the psychologist and ask them to subtly find out the problem. In our day, the manager dealt with it himself.

Withe
They showed us three rooms for team meetings. Someone said, “Where did you do your team meetings?” I replied, “The pub or The Belfry”. We had a unity. I think that is what Unai Emery is trying to instil.

Spink
You can't compare with the mental strength of our squad. There weren't psychologists. Tony's house burnt down and Ron Saunders told him to get his head around it as he's got to play the next day. Now they'd be taking two weeks off to recover. We had to deal with it ourselves. Our psychologists were senior players like Pete, Jimmy

Villa have been inconsistent but are chasing a place in the top five which could secure a return to the competition next season. In January they sold Jhon Durán and signed Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford, both on loan, to ease worries about potential breaches of the financial rules.

Morley
Durán always had his shorts down his arse and I thought, “How the hell can you play like that?” He's jumped ship for the money. Morgan Rogers is powerful and can change games, he wants to run with the ball,
which was my game.

Spink
I like Emiliano Martínez''s brashness and ability. Villa have had key injuries and Pau Torres is a massive loss. It was good business selling Durán. He'd done nothing, apart from line his pockets. I would rather have the European Cup medal and pictures than a dollar — 100 per cent. I'd love Rashford to get a goal quickly as that would bring him to the fore for supporters. Players want to play in the Champions League and if Villa don't qualify again, the worry is whether they could lose a few big boys. For now, let's toast our history and this run.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on March 11, 2025, 09:31:36 AM
That's a great article. I'm still learning some great stories about the day of the final and the lads are all full of interesting opinions and experiences.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brend'Watkins on March 11, 2025, 12:25:06 PM
Morley
I don't mean this disrespectfully. We won the league and European Cup and until they do, you can't compare the teams. There is no reason why they can't compete for it in five years as Villa are heading in one direction. Credit the manager and owners for the amount of money put in. They need a trophy. I think it'll be the FA Cup. It's boring at times, but that's the way football is now. Different eras. I wouldn't change one player for that side. Conditions are different. All this crap about present players being fitter is a load of rubbish. No one trained like we did. They now have a better rate of recovery with nutrition, scientific advice and technology. The three of us witnessed what Villa do when we visited the training ground in autumn. Pete, you spotted that the manager notices if a player is not 100 per cent and he'll speak to the psychologist and ask them to subtly find out the problem. In our day, the manager dealt with it himself.


I like Tony Morley, I've spoken to him a few times too but what he's saying here is rubbish for most part.  Players now are much fitter than 40 odd years ago, it's a fact.
They aren't from the same background either, they've been groomed to be professional footballers from an early age so look at life differently. A psychologist is important now more than ever, "Chin up and pull yourself together" doesn't cut it anymore.   

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on March 11, 2025, 12:39:24 PM
I know we all know this, and we all agree, and there's zero need for me to say this, but what a fucking player Tony Morley was.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on March 11, 2025, 01:01:19 PM
I love Morley but imo he was a good player that had a couple of great years. He's also talking nonsense as Bren says, our team may have been fitter than most were in that era but that's a long way from being as fit as current players.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on March 11, 2025, 01:12:58 PM
I love Morley but imo he was a good player that had a couple of great years. He's also talking nonsense as Bren says, our team may have been fitter than most were in that era but that's a long way from being as fit as current players.

You only have to watch a few games from the time to see how much slower the play was. Even going back to the mid 90s the intensity just isn't there like we see now, things like a high press were pretty much unheard of.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on March 11, 2025, 01:13:46 PM
I know we all know this, and we all agree, and there's zero need for me to say this, but what a fucking player Tony Morley was.
When they talk about pace.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Gerrin on March 12, 2025, 09:27:36 PM
April's going to be a brutal month for the players now, 7 games, all big games against tough opposition.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on March 12, 2025, 09:47:47 PM
April's going to be a brutal month for the players now, 7 games, all big games against tough opposition.

We have a big squad  to deal with this now.  They shoulf be embracing this
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 13, 2025, 03:58:03 PM
April's going to be a brutal month for the players now, 7 games, all big games against tough opposition.

We have a big squad  to deal with this now.  They shoulf be embracing this


2 Apr v Brighton (A) PL
5 Apr v Nott'm Forest (H) PL
9 Apr v PSG (A) UCL
12 Apr v Southampton (A) PL
15 Apr v PSG (H) UCL
19 Apr v Newcastle (H) PL

and I suspect the Man City match if win in champions league will be moved and could end up playing them twice in a week /10 days if drawn in semi final against them and also in the league
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 14, 2025, 02:53:48 PM
4th and 5th place still in with a chance given fixtures.

If exclude top 2 then our competitors are 3rd to 10th
Forest Chelsea, Man City, Newcastle, Brighton are currently above us and Bournemouth and Fulham just behind with a game in hand.

Villa have to play all these teams apart from Chelsea. And a chance to gain 3pts each time

And I do think the next matches away to brighton has to be won for a start.

This weekend:
Man City v Brighton
Fulham v Spurs
Bournemouth v Brentford
Arsenal v Chelsea

I’ll add Ipswich v Forest .

Now in order to make gains without playing the winners needed this week ahead are Spurs , Brentford , Arsenal and Ipswich

and a draw in the Man City v Brighton game
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 14, 2025, 05:12:51 PM
After the European Results this week 5th place has all but confirmed for a Champions League place next season on co efficient success. Great news!

And this Guardian article backs me up:

“The Premier League is almost certain to have a fifth team in the Champions League next season, with the distinct possibility of a sixth too, after the completion of the last-16 ties in European competition.

Progress for Arsenal, Aston Villa, Manchester United, Tottenham and Chelsea, combined with the exit of Roma from the Europa League, means England are overwhelming favourites to claim one of two European performance spots (EPS) for Uefa’s elite competition next season

Uefa officials believe England are almost home and dry in the race for an extra spot, which is awarded based on performance in the association club coefficient, which aggregates the performance of a nation’s teams in European competition over the course of a season.

The coefficient is calculated by awarding teams in European competition points for winning or drawing, and bonus points for qualifying from one round to the next. Scores are then averaged out according to the number of teams from a given country that started the season in Europe.

The coefficient table has England scoring the most points this season, ahead of Spain and Italy. With the top two nations earning the EPS, in effect England must stay clear of Italy to confirm a spot. England have five teams left in competition. Italy have fallen to three, with Inter, Lazio and Fiorentina progressing.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on March 14, 2025, 05:18:44 PM
It's been "all but confirmed" since January.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Andy_Lochhead_in_the_air on March 14, 2025, 05:29:51 PM
Ideally this weekend..

Ipswich v Forest ....Ipswich win
Man C v Brighton...Draw
Bournemouth v Brentford...Brentford win
Arsenal v Chelsea....Arsenal win
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 14, 2025, 07:09:56 PM
Ideally this weekend..

Ipswich v Forest ....Ipswich win
Man C v Brighton...Draw
Bournemouth v Brentford...Brentford win
Arsenal v Chelsea....Arsenal win
I suggested Spurs aswell to keep Fulham no gains.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on March 14, 2025, 10:00:47 PM
Zzz
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 15, 2025, 02:30:18 PM
Hoping for some villa friendly results today !
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 15, 2025, 04:50:49 PM
No. It guarantees Newcastle a Conference League place if they fail to qualify for the Champions League or Europa League by league position. If Liverpool win, or Newcastle win and qualify for Europe via league position, Conference League place will be passed to a team based on league position, like it was when we qualified for it.

Newcastle win is potentially bad news for us.
Thanks!

Needs must then: YNWA, Come on you Reds, etc etc etc

(row of vomit emojis)

The Newcastle at home match will be like a cup final for the champs league
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 15, 2025, 04:54:11 PM
4th and 5th place still in with a chance given fixtures.

If exclude top 2 then our competitors are 3rd to 10th
Forest Chelsea, Man City, Newcastle, Brighton are currently above us and Bournemouth and Fulham just behind with a game in hand.

Villa have to play all these teams apart from Chelsea. And a chance to gain 3pts each time

2-2 Man City V Brighton
The game in hand for both Man City and Brighton means this draw is a great result and have to play both of them.

Nothing to fear v Man City the way they been conceding and allowing chances and have stated a few times we could be destined to play Man City twice in space of 7 to 10 days that league match will likely be moved from Monday 28th due to FA Cup semi final participation (of one or both clubs)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 15, 2025, 04:58:14 PM
2-2 115C and Albion is a great result.
Quite right!!
shame forest won but it’s still all to play for and yes this needs to be discussed away from ‘other games’ as it’s so important and better suited in this thread .

other games are just that but considering the games that are impactful then it’s most considered to debate and highlight here regards the qualification for Champions League!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on March 15, 2025, 05:14:35 PM
5th place this season is not "great" news if we aren't getting this year. Part of the reason England romped it this season is that our points were divided by 7, not 8 (Plus 3 of the top 8 were English). Whilst you can't rule out Nottingham or Newcastle getting some decent points next season, but I suspect next season it won't be five. Hopefully we can take advantage that some of those clubs in CL struggle in the league and we finish top three. Of course if we qualify as holders, then all is fine.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on March 15, 2025, 08:33:39 PM
5th place this season is not "great" news if we aren't getting this year. Part of the reason England romped it this season is that our points were divided by 7, not 8 (Plus 3 of the top 8 were English). Whilst you can't rule out Nottingham or Newcastle getting some decent points next season, but I suspect next season it won't be five. Hopefully we can take advantage that some of those clubs in CL struggle in the league and we finish top three. Of course if we qualify as holders, then all is fine.

Read your first sentence three times and still don't understand it.

Do you mean if 5th is not a CL place? I think it was confirmed today it will be.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rougegorge on March 15, 2025, 08:52:05 PM
I read it as meaning that ordinarily having 5 places allocated to CL would be good, but it's not much good if we are not the beneficiaries of the extra place. Especially when we will have been instrumental in achieving the extra place.

Then, next year there's no guarantee that 5th place will earn a CL place.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on March 15, 2025, 09:26:14 PM
However, doesn't having 5 CL places mean that a Europa League place opens up that otherwise wouldn't have been there?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on March 15, 2025, 09:30:02 PM
Yes they all move one place down.

Top five = Champions League
FA Cup winners and sixth = Europa League
League Cup winners = Conference League

But if FA Cup winners and League Cup winners both finish top six then down to seventh would be good enough for Europa and eighth gets you in the Conference League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on March 15, 2025, 09:30:12 PM
Also, if Chelsea were to win the Conference League, thereby earning a place in the Europa League next season, and finish 6th in the PL, does that open up a Europa League place to the team finishing 7th in the PL?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on March 15, 2025, 09:35:05 PM
I'm not sure. If they finish in a Conference League qualifying place and win the Conference League it opens up a spot in that competition it opens up a place in that competition, I think. Not sure about if they finish in a Europa spot.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on March 15, 2025, 09:36:55 PM
Doesn't look like it opens up an extra Europa place. Roma won it in 2022 but Serie A still had two Europa spots.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%9322_Serie_A
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on March 15, 2025, 10:04:51 PM
Read your first sentence three times and still don't understand it.

Do you mean if 5th is not a CL place? I think it was confirmed today it will be.

I meant that teams who normally have extra teams in the competition don't normally qualify for the extra place the following season. So IF 5th place gives CL spots AND we don't get in it this year, it might mean we don't get 5 spots in the CL the following season. Of course if the English teams going in there do well, or if we are not competing we might do better in the league next season so it could be a moot point.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: jwarry on March 16, 2025, 03:16:24 AM
Ideally this weekend..

Ipswich v Forest ....Ipswich win
Man C v Brighton...Draw
Bournemouth v Brentford...Brentford win
Arsenal v Chelsea....Arsenal win

Almost the perfect weekend so far
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on March 16, 2025, 06:01:41 AM
We need to forget  forest now they too far ahead we need to be targeting  4th and 5th.

Forest i think will have done incredibly well to get CL but they are not going to be able to cope with that and league thats for sure
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on March 16, 2025, 07:05:39 AM
We need to forget  forest now they too far ahead we need to be targeting  4th and 5th.

Forest i think will have done incredibly well to get CL but they are not going to be able to cope with that and league thats for sure
I am not sure, they have a very tricky run in and have been incredibly lucky with injuries.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on March 16, 2025, 07:40:26 AM
Read your first sentence three times and still don't understand it.

Do you mean if 5th is not a CL place? I think it was confirmed today it will be.

I meant that teams who normally have extra teams in the competition don't normally qualify for the extra place the following season. So IF 5th place gives CL spots AND we don't get in it this year, it might mean we don't get 5 spots in the CL the following season. Of course if the English teams going in there do well, or if we are not competing we might do better in the league next season so it could be a moot point.

I'm not sure if we can use the phrase "normally" when we are in the first season that it has happened. I note that Italy's points total is higher than Spain's overall but their coefficient is lower because of the division by 8 rather than 7. However, the flip side of this is that having 8 teams gives more opportunities for points to be gained. I'd file this concern under overthinking things, although I thank you for prompting me to think about it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: brontebilly on March 16, 2025, 08:48:39 AM
We need to forget  forest now they too far ahead we need to be targeting  4th and 5th.

Forest i think will have done incredibly well to get CL but they are not going to be able to cope with that and league thats for sure

Will struggle to hold onto likes of Gibbs-White in the summer.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on March 16, 2025, 11:30:21 AM
Twice in the last 8 seasons England didn't finish in the top 2. Both of those were the 2 seasons there were 8 teams in Europe.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on March 16, 2025, 12:03:01 PM
Twice in the last 8 seasons England didn't finish in the top 2. Both of those were the 2 seasons there were 8 teams in Europe.

When was the time other than last season?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on March 16, 2025, 01:55:41 PM
2015/16.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on March 16, 2025, 02:37:36 PM
15/16 was a funny season though with all of the top 6 in a slightly 'transitional' state.

This season has a similar feel.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on March 16, 2025, 05:06:36 PM
We need to forget  forest now they too far ahead we need to be targeting  4th and 5th.

Forest i think will have done incredibly well to get CL but they are not going to be able to cope with that and league thats for sure
I am not sure, they have a very tricky run in and have been incredibly lucky with injuries.
.i think the opposite.  They have a lot of midtable sides to play that dint really have much to play for. I think our run in is tougher than theirs
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on March 16, 2025, 07:05:44 PM
On the whole very useful results are his weekend.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on March 16, 2025, 07:27:38 PM
2015/16.

Thanks. That's the last nine seasons rather than the last eight but the point still stands, if not more so.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 16, 2025, 10:51:26 PM
We need to forget  forest now they too far ahead we need to be targeting  4th and 5th.

Forest i think will have done incredibly well to get CL but they are not going to be able to cope with that and league thats for sure
I am not sure, they have a very tricky run in and have been incredibly lucky with injuries.
.i think the opposite.  They have a lot of midtable sides to play that dint really have much to play for. I think our run in is tougher than theirs
Forest don’t have that tricky a run in only play Villa and Chelsea of top 10 teams.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 16, 2025, 10:54:23 PM
Champions League places fixtures remaining against each other where points can be won and lost.
Also last game of season listed

still to play:

3rd. Forest 9pts ahead
Villa (a)
Last game of season Chelsea (h)


4th. Chelsea 4pts ahead
Fulham (a)
Newcastle (a)
last match of the season Forest  (a)

5th. Man City 2pts ahead
Villa (h)
Bournemouth (h)
last game of season Fulham (a)

6th. Newcastle 2pts ahead and game in hand
Villa (a)
Brighton (a)
Chelsea (h)
last game of season Everton (h)

7th. Brighton 2pts ahead
Villa (h)
Newcastle (h)
last game of season Spurs (a)

8th Fulham equal points as Villa
Bournemouth (a)
Chelsea (h)
Villa (a)

9th Bournemouth 1pts behind
Fulham (h)
Villa (h)
Man City (a)
last game of season Leicester (h)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on March 16, 2025, 11:03:39 PM
We're 9/1 to finish top 5 if anyone's feeling confident.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on March 16, 2025, 11:19:29 PM
I genuinely think our best chance of qualifying is by winning it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 16, 2025, 11:24:03 PM
Next league game is crucial :Brighton is a must win. They are 2pts ahead of us and Win of 3pts  takes us ahead and takes points away from them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 16, 2025, 11:29:38 PM
I genuinely think our best chance of qualifying is by winning it.
Well consider this:

Would we rather play 5 games against PSG twice , Arsenal or Real Madrid twice and a final Vs Barcelona /Bayern/Inter .(draws allowed along the way to final)

or win all 5 games against Brighton, Newcastle , Man City, Fulham, Bournemouth.

The remainder of the season have to be the best.


Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on March 16, 2025, 11:41:39 PM
I dunno, it's just instinct. We don't feel consistent enough away from home to finish above at least half a dozen other contenders. On our day, we're good enough to beat anyone at home. Not saying we will, but a couple of Villa Park second legs, potentially. You never know.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rory on March 17, 2025, 12:07:38 AM
I dunno, it's just instinct. We don't feel consistent enough away from home to finish above at least half a dozen other contenders. On our day, we're good enough to beat anyone at home. Not saying we will, but a couple of Villa Park second legs, potentially. You never know.

I agree.

On the balance of probabilities I'm not predicting it, obviously, but we've generally risen to the occasion in the CL.

I think we're more likely to put in three or four outstanding performances against teams who are almost certain to underestimate us and give us space, than we are to reverse a year of patchy League form and win pretty much every game between now and the end of the season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on March 17, 2025, 12:18:29 AM
I agree. I'm going for an FA Cup win though and Europa League football next season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on March 17, 2025, 12:29:44 AM
I disagree, there's a reason we're 9/1 to finish top 5 and 28/1 to win the Champions League.

I do agree that an FA Cup win and Europa League next season is more likely than either of the above.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rory on March 17, 2025, 01:19:51 AM
I agree. I'm going for an FA Cup win though and Europa League football next season.

I'd take that.

If the lardarse, shirtless Northern West Brom can win something, surely it's time we can. Those self-adoring dickheads would spend their whole lives wanking into a mirror if only it was fat enough.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on March 17, 2025, 06:14:41 AM
Id take fa cup win and europa tbh. If we miss out on CL so be it if we win fa cup.

I do think we would be in a good place to challenge for a CL spot again next season if we miss out this season
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on March 17, 2025, 07:31:12 AM
Id take fa cup win and europa tbh. If we miss out on CL so be it if we win fa cup.

I do think we would be in a good place to challenge for a CL spot again next season if we miss out this season

I don't understand that thinking.  The Europa league has as many matches as the Champions league.  Making the Europa has exactly the same demands on the squad as the CL?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on March 17, 2025, 07:38:26 AM
Id take fa cup win and europa tbh. If we miss out on CL so be it if we win fa cup.

I do think we would be in a good place to challenge for a CL spot again next season if we miss out this season

I don't understand that thinking.  The Europa league has as many matches as the Champions league.  Making the Europa has exactly the same demands on the squad as the CL?

Exactly.  That the teams in it aren't as good isn't that much of a factor if you still have to play the same number of games and do the same travelling about the continent while also still playing all the other matches.  If you wanted to 'focus on the league' you're better pff out of Europe all together but dont' expect the better players to all stick about for that.

Europa would be OK, but not as good as CL.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on March 17, 2025, 07:59:11 AM
Id take fa cup win and europa tbh. If we miss out on CL so be it if we win fa cup.

I do think we would be in a good place to challenge for a CL spot again next season if we miss out this season

I don't understand that thinking.  The Europa league has as many matches as the Champions league.  Making the Europa has exactly the same demands on the squad as the CL?

Look at the level of sides AZ are in Qfs compared to the sides in CL. Thats not to mention its the new format so you will play alot of poor sides even in europa. In conference  league it was the older format so i think we can rotate more than we did. Thats my reasoning for it.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on March 17, 2025, 08:08:59 AM
Id take fa cup win and europa tbh. If we miss out on CL so be it if we win fa cup.

I do think we would be in a good place to challenge for a CL spot again next season if we miss out this season

I don't understand that thinking.  The Europa league has as many matches as the Champions league.  Making the Europa has exactly the same demands on the squad as the CL?

Look at the level of sides AZ are in Qfs compared to the sides in CL. Thats not to mention its the new format so you will play alot of poor sides even in europa. In conference  league it was the older format so i think we can rotate more than we did. Thats my reasoning for it.

And I reckon that logic checks out - but there are too many moving parts to really know what the overall impact is.

Spurs this season and Liverpool last were able to play a bunch of youth / fringe players in their earlier games and still stroll through to the later stages, so hopefully we'd be doing the same next if that's what we're playing in. And I agree, I think a game against Linz or Qarabag would mean we're less likely to screw up the following weekend than if we'd just had the additional emotional and physical stress of a game against Bayern or Juventus. Without looking at the results, I bet last season would probably back that up.

However, Champions League money is probably the difference between us keeping Asensio / Rashford / signing a new striker. So the extra money also brings in extra resources to deal with the harder matches in both Europe and the league.

Which is more likely to get us there, easier matches and less of a post-Europe hangover meaning we win more, or a harder season, but a better squad meaning we win more?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on March 17, 2025, 08:49:58 AM
Id take fa cup win and europa tbh. If we miss out on CL so be it if we win fa cup.

I do think we would be in a good place to challenge for a CL spot again next season if we miss out this season

I don't understand that thinking.  The Europa league has as many matches as the Champions league.  Making the Europa has exactly the same demands on the squad as the CL?

Look at the level of sides AZ are in Qfs compared to the sides in CL. Thats not to mention its the new format so you will play alot of poor sides even in europa. In conference  league it was the older format so i think we can rotate more than we did. Thats my reasoning for it.



The sides are better in the Champions League, but you still need to play the same matches in the Europa. You still need to travel to them. You still need to prepare for them.  In fact, there is an argument to say the Europa would have a more detrimental effect on the league form as the games are generally later in the week, which means less recovery before weekend league games.

Don't get me wrong, I'd be more than happy with a run in the Europa if we miss out on the champions league, but this idea that it would allow us 'to focus more' on the league simply doesn't stack up.  The Conference league has two fewer matches in the league phase, otherwise it's the same format also.

As others have said, if you want to avoid the 'burnout' of playing in Europe, you need to miss out altogether - and none of us want that.  The reality is we need to build a squad capable of fighting on all fronts. We're getting there, but there is still some work to do.  When everyone is fit, our squad has real depth and quality.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on March 17, 2025, 09:17:53 AM
Yeah I don't know if the level of opposition is a bigger factor in our poor results on subsequent weekends or would a Thursday to Sunday be more difficult than a Tues/Weds to Sat/Sun.

Our record in the league post-Conference games last season was better than the CL-league turnaround this time but then again we WERE a better team last season just generally.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dante Lavelli on March 17, 2025, 09:32:43 AM
Id take fa cup win and europa tbh. If we miss out on CL so be it if we win fa cup.

I do think we would be in a good place to challenge for a CL spot again next season if we miss out this season

I don't understand that thinking.  The Europa league has as many matches as the Champions league.  Making the Europa has exactly the same demands on the squad as the CL?

Look at the level of sides AZ are in Qfs compared to the sides in CL. Thats not to mention its the new format so you will play alot of poor sides even in europa. In conference  league it was the older format so i think we can rotate more than we did. Thats my reasoning for it.

Yeah, Conference League would allow us to play the likes of Gauci, Bogarde and Enzo rather than them going on loan. Normal tickets should be £25 max.  I see that as a positives however on the flip side, signing Rashford or Asensio would, and should, be off the table.   
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DB on March 17, 2025, 10:20:40 AM
Why does it have to be and either / or?
Win the cups and qualify for the CL (which we will do anyway if we win the thing).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on March 17, 2025, 11:49:37 AM
I wouldn't be playing up the upside of Europa League vs Champions League. If there's any chance of playing in the CL for a second reason, we've got to jump at it. Yes, the fixture load is difficult when you're combining tough European games and PL games; and our form has suffered this season from it. But it's a learning curve and we've got to get our squad to a point where we it's strong enough to cope with it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on March 17, 2025, 11:51:59 AM
I wouldn't be playing up the upside of Europa League vs Champions League. If there's any chance of playing in the CL for a second reason, we've got to jump at it. Yes, the fixture load is difficult when you're combining tough European games and PL games; and our form has suffered this season from it. But it's a learning curve and we've got to get our squad to a point where we it's strong enough to cope with it.

Is the correct answer.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on March 17, 2025, 11:54:18 AM
Yep i agree on the points about the asensio ans rashford signings. I mean i would be ok not sogning rashford if it meant we cab get asensio tbh.

As dave sound of alludes to you would think  we coild play weakened teams in the early stages  of the group and i mean we have some ridiculous  options now and i think this team would beat olympiakos  who are in this tournament compared to last season.  I mean look at rangers they are in the QFs and we beat celtic who are better than them.

So i do think we would be fine but the issue is the level of players we could attract. But man do i want a fa cup
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dante Lavelli on March 17, 2025, 01:16:08 PM
If we are not in the CL than I don’t think we will be seeking to attract many players anyway. The squad is pretty massive so more likely be one in, one out, with an eye on keeping costs at a minimum.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on March 17, 2025, 01:26:07 PM
If we are not in the CL than I don’t think we will be seeking to attract many players anyway. The squad is pretty massive so more likely be one in, one out, with an eye on keeping costs at a minimum.

Yup. If we are, then I'd say making the three loans permanent, and an upgraded reserve keeper if Gauci or Zych aren't seen as being ready to do the job and we're pretty much set.

If we're not, the keeper, Disasi and one of the other two, ideally Asensio.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on March 17, 2025, 01:51:05 PM
We need to forget  forest now they too far ahead we need to be targeting  4th and 5th.

Forest i think will have done incredibly well to get CL but they are not going to be able to cope with that and league thats for sure
I am not sure, they have a very tricky run in and have been incredibly lucky with injuries.


Quote
The draw with Wolves at the City Ground in August might have seemed remarkable only in its unremarkability but it remains the single solitary occasion on which Nottingham Forest dropped but a mere point against a team currently lower than 10th this season.

That record alone has buttressed this ludicrous push for Champions League qualification. Forest are third in a Premier League table versus the bottom half and the two sides above them – Arsenal and Liverpool – have played more games against such sides.

If Forest were weirdly restricted only to counting their points accrued against the bottom half, they would still be 13th and level with Manchester United, ahead of Spurs.

That is patently ludicrous, but also sensational news for a side whose remaining games are against the teams in 4th, 9th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th and 19th, and who watched none of the four teams immediately below them win in the league this weekend.

Players and coaches won’t allow complacency to creep in and fans will refuse to acknowledge the elephant staring at them in every room they occupy, but Forest are pretty much already across the line if they just keep on keeping on.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on March 17, 2025, 03:02:40 PM
We need to forget  forest now they too far ahead we need to be targeting  4th and 5th.

Forest i think will have done incredibly well to get CL but they are not going to be able to cope with that and league thats for sure
I am not sure, they have a very tricky run in and have been incredibly lucky with injuries.


Quote
The draw with Wolves at the City Ground in August might have seemed remarkable only in its unremarkability but it remains the single solitary occasion on which Nottingham Forest dropped but a mere point against a team currently lower than 10th this season.

That record alone has buttressed this ludicrous push for Champions League qualification. Forest are third in a Premier League table versus the bottom half and the two sides above them – Arsenal and Liverpool – have played more games against such sides.

If Forest were weirdly restricted only to counting their points accrued against the bottom half, they would still be 13th and level with Manchester United, ahead of Spurs.

That is patently ludicrous, but also sensational news for a side whose remaining games are against the teams in 4th, 9th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th and 19th, and who watched none of the four teams immediately below them win in the league this weekend.

Players and coaches won’t allow complacency to creep in and fans will refuse to acknowledge the elephant staring at them in every room they occupy, but Forest are pretty much already across the line if they just keep on keeping on.
Interesting, good luck to them if they do make it. But I think a couple of injuries could still derail them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on March 17, 2025, 04:18:52 PM
We're 4 points off 4th place. We have a break to reset and focus and I expect us to go on a late charge...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave P on March 17, 2025, 04:22:50 PM
I wouldn't be playing up the upside of Europa League vs Champions League. If there's any chance of playing in the CL for a second reason, we've got to jump at it. Yes, the fixture load is difficult when you're combining tough European games and PL games; and our form has suffered this season from it. But it's a learning curve and we've got to get our squad to a point where we it's strong enough to cope with it.

Is the correct answer.

I think what he is saying, and I agree with, is that this season our main aim must be to win the FA Cup, and take the Europa League place that comes with it.  Of course we want the champions league again next year, but I'll be annoyed if we threw the FA Cup away chasing it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dick Edwards on March 17, 2025, 04:45:44 PM
We're 4 points off 4th place. We have a break to reset and focus and I expect us to go on a late charge...
Although with our negative goal difference it’s effectively five points. If we can keep a close to full strength squad fit for the rest of the season and beat the teams around us we can certainly do it. It’s just that we’ve not shown any evidence thus far of the consistency we’ll need to achieve that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on March 17, 2025, 05:04:28 PM
We're 4 points off 4th place. We have a break to reset and focus and I expect us to go on a late charge...
Although with our negative goal difference it’s effectively five points.

No. It isn't.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 17, 2025, 05:11:42 PM
If it comes down to goal difference it is an issue.
However first step is beating Brighton. win that and more people will believe and hope we can make it!
If Villa lost that would not be good given the points let alone the goal difference.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DeLaCruzing on March 17, 2025, 05:15:04 PM
We would need a GD swing of around 20 goals to catch up with the current 3rd-5th placed teams,  so yes it’s another point being behind in theory if GD is the defining factor.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on March 17, 2025, 07:26:28 PM
We're 4 points off 4th place. We have a break to reset and focus and I expect us to go on a late charge...
Although with our negative goal difference it’s effectively five points.

No. It isn't.

More or less 5 points, with hoe bad our goal difference is.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on March 17, 2025, 07:32:59 PM
How often does it come down to goal difference?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on March 17, 2025, 07:48:09 PM
We're 4 points off 4th place. We have a break to reset and focus and I expect us to go on a late charge...
Although with our negative goal difference it’s effectively five points.

No. It isn't.

More or less 5 points, with hoe bad our goal difference is.

*Rage intensifies
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 17, 2025, 09:34:23 PM
I’m convinced we are going to hit someone for 6 i’ve been waiting for this to happen again.
obviously Southampton and Preston would be likely suspects but both occasions we are likely to field a heavily rotated side .

Maybe Spurs at home last match of the season
(depending where Man City gets moved too) will be the match.

ideally hitting for a 6 against one of our rivals would be great but i would take several 3-0 victories against them !

Exciting though as it’s all to play for really for the places.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on March 18, 2025, 09:04:26 AM
Yeah, CD, you don't believe in goal-difference but I forget why, can you explain pls.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on March 18, 2025, 09:06:53 AM
I believe in the existence of goal difference. I don't believe it's "worth a point", because it isn't. If Man City finish on 60 points with a goal difference of +50 and we finish on 61 points with a goal difference of -20, we finish a point clear of them, not level.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on March 18, 2025, 09:30:12 AM
But it is worth an extra point when points are level.  Afterall in your scenario we finish below Citeh if we are both on 60 points so would need 61.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on March 18, 2025, 09:35:33 AM
Yes. Their difference is so much better than ours, so that it is basically worth a point.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on March 18, 2025, 09:43:08 AM
And when we finish a point ahead of them they'll actually be drawing with us won't they?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on March 18, 2025, 10:18:53 AM
The thing is, it’s folly to suggest Villa are out of contention for Champions League places, 4th and 5th positions chiefly and most realistically, to aim for as the highest finishes.

I say this because no team outside of the top 3 has shown the consistency to be a top 4 team this season. Villa are very much in contention, and I don’t think Chelsea, who are 4th and 4 pts ahead, have shown the form for quite a while now that is the best 4th place team.

With 5th place also up for grabs, then it’s certainly in the realms of possibility, and I forecast 5th in the league, winning the FA Cup and the semifinals of the Champions League.They are all very distinct possibilities, but to focus on the topic at hand, Villa have every chance for a Champions League place.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on March 18, 2025, 11:11:28 AM
And when we finish a point ahead of them they'll actually be drawing with us won't they?

Can you please stop talking sensibly when I'm trying to annoy my brother?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on March 18, 2025, 11:14:44 AM
Absolutely certain that people who believe goal difference is worth a point also think there's a team in Spain called "Athletico Madrid".
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on March 18, 2025, 11:19:31 AM
I was going to chime in on the goal difference debate, but honestly, what's the point?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on March 18, 2025, 11:23:46 AM
And when we finish a point ahead of them they'll actually be drawing with us won't they?

No. Because the "worth an extra point" is only applicable in the one set of circumstances when points are already level.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: JUAN PABLO on March 18, 2025, 12:16:07 PM
So with the verdict coming very soon for 115 city , maybe in the next week . If they are found guilty ( crosses fingers)  , I heard one of the punishments would be no europe next season for them.
 So that will be very interesting If found guity as that would be their place up for grabs If they finished top 5 .

Knowing the corrupt @@@@@@  they probably get off , but lets hope some good news. 

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on March 18, 2025, 12:19:35 PM
Chances are with so many teams bunched-up that we may finish level on points with someone else but end-up below them cos our GD is Blose. Fulham have the same points as us currently but are ahead of us cos they've occasionally won by more than the odd goal and can keep clean sheets better.
Similarly Newcastle are in 6th place ahead of Brighton, both on 47 points.

And it's always been Atleti for me - not Atletico or Athletico. I cheered Forlan and Aguero on from crumbling Calderón terraces circa 09-11.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on March 18, 2025, 01:32:23 PM
You'll be saying there's no such thing as a 6-pointer next.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rougegorge on March 18, 2025, 01:54:11 PM
Absolutely certain that people who believe goal difference is worth a point also think there's a team in Spain called "Athletico Madrid".
A bit of a tangent I know, but this reminds me when I got corrected many years ago talking with Italians in reference to the Milan clubs.

Ever since then, I have known that it is not correct to say 'AC Milan' or 'Inter Milan'. Italians refer to them as Milan and Inter (or Internazionale in full).  Milan is correct, even though the Italian for the city is Milano.

Saying AC Milan or Inter Milan is like someone here saying 'FC Liverpool' or 'Chelsea London'.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on March 18, 2025, 01:56:19 PM
At least we can all agree on Sporting Lisbon.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on March 18, 2025, 01:57:33 PM
Inserts "Its a trap" GIF.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on March 18, 2025, 02:02:59 PM
also think there's a team in Spain called "Athletico Madrid".

Fools. Everyone knows that their real name is scumbag wanker twats.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on March 18, 2025, 02:12:50 PM
Always annoys me when people say PSV Eindhoven.

It's just PSV.

Although it is Feyenoord Rotterdam.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on March 18, 2025, 03:22:25 PM
Cos Rotterdam is anywhere... which reminds me, Nick Banks, nephew of Gordon, drummer in Pulp - was once asked by an excitable Dutch journalist -
"So were you really born in Rotterdam? That's amazing!".
"No luv - it were Rotherham".
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on March 18, 2025, 03:24:42 PM
Cos Rotterdam is anywhere... which reminds me, Nick Banks, nephew of Gordon, drummer in Pulp - was once asked by an excitable Dutch journalist -
"So were you really born in Rotterdam? That's amazing!".
"No luv - it were Rotherham".

Well I didn't know that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Witton Warrior on March 18, 2025, 03:41:48 PM
We are on the same points, games played etc as Fulham whose manager was really positive on the weekend about their chance of getting into Europe - positivity needed Brothers and Sisters!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on March 18, 2025, 04:42:52 PM
Cos Rotterdam is anywhere... which reminds me, Nick Banks, nephew of Gordon, drummer in Pulp - was once asked by an excitable Dutch journalist -
"So were you really born in Rotterdam? That's amazing!".
"No luv - it were Rotherham".

Well I didn't know that.

A safe pair of hands runs in the genes.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on March 18, 2025, 05:46:09 PM
Cos Rotterdam is anywhere... which reminds me, Nick Banks, nephew of Gordon, drummer in Pulp - was once asked by an excitable Dutch journalist -
"So were you really born in Rotterdam? That's amazing!".
"No luv - it were Rotherham".

Well I didn't know that.

Me neither. Quite a good fact, I reckon. I am going to wow the attendees next time I'm invited to a dinner party.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on March 18, 2025, 05:49:47 PM
Cos Rotterdam is anywhere... which reminds me, Nick Banks, nephew of Gordon, drummer in Pulp - was once asked by an excitable Dutch journalist -
"So were you really born in Rotterdam? That's amazing!".
"No luv - it were Rotherham".

Well I didn't know that.

Me neither. Quite a good fact, I reckon. I am going to wow the attendees next time I'm invited to a dinner party.

Next time I'm planning a miserable butterless feast with refrigerated eggs I'll drop you a line. But I already know the fact, so keep it to yourself. It won't be a conversational occasion anyway. It'll start at 7, you'll be home by half-past.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on March 18, 2025, 05:51:09 PM
Sounds perfect.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on March 18, 2025, 06:29:59 PM
Thought you might go with:

They were dancing with children round their necks
Talking business, books and records, art and sex
All things being considered, you'd call it a success
You wore your black dress
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: UK Redsox on March 19, 2025, 12:23:59 PM
Predictions from some bloke I've never heard of on ESPN

I'd settle for this

https://www.espn.co.uk/football/story/_/id/44290844/premier-league-projections-predictions-title-top-four-relegation-luis-miguel-echegaray

Quote
Clinched Champions League for 2025-26
Liverpool (champions), Arsenal (second place), Manchester City (third), Nottingham Forest (fourth), Newcastle United (fifth; also won the Carabao Cup)

Clinched Europa League for 2025-26
Aston Villa (sixth, also won the FA Cup),
Chelsea (after winning the Europa Conference), Brighton (clinched extra spot through league position)

Clinched Europa Conference League for 2025-26
Bournemouth (clinched spot through league position, earned place from Newcastle United, who qualified for Champions League via fifth-place finish)

Relegated to English Championship for 2025-26:
Ipswich Town, Leicester City, Southampton
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on March 19, 2025, 12:24:45 PM
I'm looking forward to qualifying for the Europa League.


And then the Champions League via our finish in the Premier League at Old Trafford the week after.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on March 19, 2025, 12:29:03 PM
Predictions from some bloke I've never heard of on ESPN

He's a Peruvian Villa fan who works for ESPN. He's also a big fan of Bad Bunny.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eye digress on March 30, 2025, 10:44:15 AM
Following 22-23 (Conference qualification) and 23-24 (Chumps’ qualification, Europa semi), we are entering the business end of the season with more irons in the fire (Chumps’ qualification, FA Cup, Chumps’ quarters) than ever.

Squad health is improving, and we’ve added some genuine star quality.

So although the league form has been poor, we do get to find out this year whether we are able to “grow” into champions.
Noticed Jonathan Wilson in the Graun asking a similar question (https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/mar/12/aston-villa-earn-shot-at-greatness-after-setting-up-historic-psg-showdown).

So, while not directly linked to today's PNE game, this is where our shot at greatness starts. Are we up for it?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on March 30, 2025, 11:10:02 AM
Following 22-23 (Conference qualification) and 23-24 (Chumps’ qualification, Europa semi), we are entering the business end of the season with more irons in the fire (Chumps’ qualification, FA Cup, Chumps’ quarters) than ever.

Squad health is improving, and we’ve added some genuine star quality.

So although the league form has been poor, we do get to find out this year whether we are able to “grow” into champions.
Noticed Jonathan Wilson in the Graun asking a similar question (https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/mar/12/aston-villa-earn-shot-at-greatness-after-setting-up-historic-psg-showdown).

So, while not directly linked to today's PNE game, this is where our shot at greatness starts. Are we up for it?
I think momentum is everything at this point.
Now is the time to go on a run.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on March 30, 2025, 11:12:32 AM
Baby we were born to run.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on April 01, 2025, 08:13:14 PM
I don’t think can make 3rd. Forest are 9pts ahead and are currently winning 1-0 at home to man utd they only have to play us away and chelsea home as any team in top half.

The last game of season is Chelsea maybe they aren’t going to get dragged into it for the champions league battle and have qualified by then.

I would write them off as a rival now if they win tonight and 3rd place.  though i suppose if we win against them then do get closer to them …
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on April 01, 2025, 08:55:59 PM
Predictions from some bloke I've never heard of on ESPN

I'd settle for this

https://www.espn.co.uk/football/story/_/id/44290844/premier-league-projections-predictions-title-top-four-relegation-luis-miguel-echegaray

Quote
Clinched Champions League for 2025-26
Liverpool (champions), Arsenal (second place), Manchester City (third), Nottingham Forest (fourth), Newcastle United (fifth; also won the Carabao Cup)

Clinched Europa League for 2025-26
Aston Villa (sixth, also won the FA Cup),
Chelsea (after winning the Europa Conference), Brighton (clinched extra spot through league position)

Clinched Europa Conference League for 2025-26
Bournemouth (clinched spot through league position, earned place from Newcastle United, who qualified for Champions League via fifth-place finish)

Relegated to English Championship for 2025-26:
Ipswich Town, Leicester City, Southampton

Luis is a massive Villa fan. He's from Peru, lived in England at school (London) and moved to New York.

He goes to our games and is proper Villa.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 01, 2025, 09:29:15 PM
I don’t think can make 3rd. Forest are 9pts ahead and are currently winning 1-0 at home to man utd they only have to play us away and chelsea home as any team in top half.

The last game of season is Chelsea maybe they aren’t going to get dragged into it for the champions league battle and have qualified by then.

I would write them off as a rival now if they win tonight and 3rd place.  though i suppose if we win against them then do get closer to them …

Replying to, and arguing with, yourself again.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 02, 2025, 07:47:35 AM
I still think it’s a big ask. We’d probably need to win 7 games given the number of teams involved.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Pat Mustard on April 02, 2025, 09:16:46 AM
I think it will go right down to the wire, but we are right in the mix for at least 5th place.  There is a scenario where it could be in our own hands by the end of today (admittedly it requires C115y to drop points at home to Leicester), but either way we just need to keep winning - tonight is absolutely crucial.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on April 02, 2025, 05:48:28 PM
Not only a must win today v Brighton but the other teams around us need to also fail with points

Games of relevance this midweek
above
4th Chelsea v Spurs
5th Man City v Leicester
6th Newcastle v Brentford
below
10th Bournemouth v Ipswich

all our rivals play at home
so it has to be MUST win and 3pts today by all accounts.
Emery will have made this very clear.
if we don’t win and 4th, 5th and 6th win as well as Brighton beating us and Bournemouth winning will go ahead it would be a disasters.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on April 02, 2025, 09:26:04 PM
This is brilliant tonight . dismissing Brighton in the must win game.

However it’s still a lot to as going above them they are only a point behind so have to make sure beat Forest!
And with Newcastle playing Leicester need to keep the momentum going.

UTV !!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: brontebilly on April 02, 2025, 10:46:20 PM
How are we fixed now? Bournemouth seem to be dropping off but Forest bar a collapse really should be certs.

2 from Chelsea, Newcastle, Man City and ourselves. Could do with Spurs getting a result tomorrow.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on April 03, 2025, 02:02:30 PM

Games of relevance coming this weekend
above:
4th Man City 51pts Man Utd a
5th Newcastle 50pts Leicester a
6th Chelsea* 49pts Brentford a

7th Aston Villa 48pts

below
8th Brighton 47pts Crystal Palace a
9th Fulham 45pts Liverpool h
10th Bournemouth 44pts West Ham a

*chelsea to play Spurs this evening .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on April 03, 2025, 02:19:45 PM
How are we fixed now? Bournemouth seem to be dropping off but Forest bar a collapse really should be certs.

2 from Chelsea, Newcastle, Man City and ourselves. Could do with Spurs getting a result tomorrow.
I don’t think can rule out any teams in top 10 just yet.

But just taking teams above us their remaining matches vs top half teams are

4th Man City
Villa (h)
Bournemouth (h)
last game of season Fulham (a)

5th Newcastle
Villa (a)
Brighton (a)
Chelsea (h)
Arsenal (a)
last game of season Everton (h)

6th Chelsea
Fulham (a)
Newcastle (a)
Liverpool  (h)
last match of the season Forest  (a)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on April 03, 2025, 02:22:39 PM
How are we fixed now? Bournemouth seem to be dropping off but Forest bar a collapse really should be certs.

2 from Chelsea, Newcastle, Man City and ourselves. Could do with Spurs getting a result tomorrow.

Annoyingly Man City have the least difficult fixture run in for their remaining 8 matches.  So a loss to Man Utd is really needed.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 03, 2025, 02:26:14 PM
Annoyingly we can't win the league after last nights plop result as we can only get 72 points.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aldridgeboy on April 03, 2025, 09:53:56 PM
Whatever happened to the Man City points deduction that was supposed to be concluded in March ? ( Or so I thought )
Newcastle have a really tough run in. I think we finish ahead of them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 03, 2025, 10:13:18 PM
We're essentially four points away. Newcastle win their game in hand and it's basically five. Presuming City don't get points deducted, which would obviously change everything, I'd say we need to beat both Newcastle and City, plus win six from eight. That might be enough. It's a big ask, but doable.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 03, 2025, 10:26:18 PM
I think if we win every game, it's possible. But I imagine if we get close we'll just find a way to fuck it up against Man U, as is traditional.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 03, 2025, 10:32:25 PM
18 points would mean 2 of these for us to only finish 6th. Chelsea need 14 from 8, Man City 15 from 8, Newcastle 16 from 9. That's assuming there's no sizeable goal swings.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 03, 2025, 10:34:18 PM
And I know teams below us could do even more but i'm basing it on the most likely teams doing it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villafirst on April 03, 2025, 10:39:38 PM
Whatever happened to the Man City points deduction that was supposed to be concluded in March ? ( Or so I thought )
Newcastle have a really tough run in. I think we finish ahead of them.

Yes, agree. The Man City 115 charges decision seems to have gone quiet. The case was supposedly wrapped up months ago. Why the need for this excessive drawn out process?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 04, 2025, 12:12:53 AM
18 points would mean 2 of these for us to only finish 6th. Chelsea need 14 from 8, Man City 15 from 8, Newcastle 16 from 9. That's assuming there's no sizeable goal swings.

City might being as they usually put a run together at the sharp end. But not seeing it from the others. Newcastle's game in hand is against Palace, which apart from one win last season when Palace had the really bad start to the season, is normally a close game that ends in a draw more then most. Chelsea look as knackered as we did last season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 04, 2025, 12:19:57 AM
Newcastle will be playing Palace reserves.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 04, 2025, 12:45:14 AM
So, as things stand I think these are simplified permutations....

Top 5 will get Champs League. Current top 7 realistically have a chance incl us, ManC, Newcastle and Chelsea. (Top 10 will feel they have chance, ie incl Fulham, Brighton and Bournemouth).

Europa will go to Cup Winner, which is us, ManC, Bournemouth or Palace. If it's one of top 5 that win it (ie def not Palace but could be anyone else) then it goes to League placing, ie 6th.

Conference League is Newcastle, unless they finish Top 5/6 and get Champs or Europa and then it goes to 7th.

Arsenal, Us can still win Champions League.

ManU or Spurs could win Europa and qualify for Champs League.

Chelsea could win Europa Conference and qualify for Europa. If they also finished in a qualifying place for Europa (6th) via the league it would move to next team down?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 04, 2025, 02:19:27 AM
Forest are still in the cup, not Bournemouth. I think Chelsea winning the Conference League would only free up a place in the Conference League if:

1. Newcastle qualify for Champions League or Europa League so that the Conference League spot they earned by winning the League Cup is passed on to the league.

2. Chelsea finish in the exact position that would otherwise have earned said Conference League spot.

If we don't win a cup, and barring a very unlikely scenario of Arsenal winning the Champions League and finishing outside the top five and/or Man U/Tottenham winning the Europa League and finishing 5th, the lowest league spot that could qualify us for Europe would be 9th... if:

1. England gets additional Champions League spot (pretty much guaranteed)
2. The FA Cup winners finish in the top seven
3. Newcastle finish in the top seven
4. Chelsea finish eighth
5. Chelsea win Conference League

Not impossible but unlikely Chelsea drop that far. Realistic chance of 8th being good enough to qualify and 7th is more likely than not.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 04, 2025, 08:24:52 AM
Forest, of course.

Interesting permutations nonetheless.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 04, 2025, 08:39:41 AM
We're essentially four points away. Newcastle win their game in hand and it's basically five. Presuming City don't get points deducted, which would obviously change everything, I'd say we need to beat both Newcastle and City, plus win six from eight. That might be enough. It's a big ask, but doable.

Yeah, that feels about right. I think that ultimately the Newcastle parallels that were there at the start are going to follow us to the end of the season. They were similarly inconsistent, couldn't put a run together then pulled out a decent run in the last ten games to pull themselves much higher but just not close enough.

A Man City points deduction could easily be the difference one way or the other. Without it they've probably still got enough to stay ahead of us, so it relies on both of Newcastle and Chelsea to fall away. The latter feels pretty plausible, but harder to see both happening.

Forest feel too far ahead, but winning tomorrow would definitely start to put the willies up them a bit and hopefully start the "we've blown it" posts like we had on here at a similar point last season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 04, 2025, 08:44:49 AM
I think it’s a pretty massive ask and probably relies on us winning pretty much all our games, specifically those against the teams we’re competing with.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 04, 2025, 09:08:30 AM
No losses, 6 wins should do it. Those wins need to be 2-3 goals in the plus column each match just to be sure.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 04, 2025, 09:23:53 AM
i think we are a couple of missed chances away from doing it. We needed a few more results to go our way but Newcastle Forest and Chelsea all won this week.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DB on April 04, 2025, 09:31:48 AM
I think it’s a pretty massive ask and probably relies on us winning pretty much all our games, specifically those against the teams we’re competing with.

That’s the opportunity though, beat those around us. We have already seen off Brighton, bring on The others….
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 04, 2025, 09:39:11 AM
With a full squad and a fit Kamara, we can beat anybody (and I mean anybody) in the world.  I think we could win all of our remaining games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 04, 2025, 10:15:31 AM
With a full squad and a fit Kamara, we can beat anybody (and I mean anybody) in the world.  I think we could win all of our remaining games.

No need to be greedy, I'd settle for draws away to PSG and Real Madrid.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on April 04, 2025, 10:32:03 AM
i did watch Barcelona the other night and i know teams have off days but i really wasn't that impressed by them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 04, 2025, 10:52:49 AM
We're essentially four points away. Newcastle win their game in hand and it's basically five. Presuming City don't get points deducted, which would obviously change everything, I'd say we need to beat both Newcastle and City, plus win six from eight. That might be enough. It's a big ask, but doable.

Yeah, that feels about right. I think that ultimately the Newcastle parallels that were there at the start are going to follow us to the end of the season. They were similarly inconsistent, couldn't put a run together then pulled out a decent run in the last ten games to pull themselves much higher but just not close enough.

A Man City points deduction could easily be the difference one way or the other. Without it they've probably still got enough to stay ahead of us, so it relies on both of Newcastle and Chelsea to fall away. The latter feels pretty plausible, but harder to see both happening.

Forest feel too far ahead, but winning tomorrow would definitely start to put the willies up them a bit and hopefully start the "we've blown it" posts like we had on here at a similar point last season.

Newcastle's a good point. I remember last season looking at Newcastle and United and thinking we'd be alright even if we shat the bed a little. It was only really Spurs who were a genuine threat.

We're in a similar position to the former two this year. Ultimately, I still think we have too much to do. 10% chance maybe. City points deduction would be most welcome. Only need one to wobble to catch them then. Two feels a stretch.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dick Edwards on April 04, 2025, 10:58:01 AM
I think we’ll need five wins out of our remaining games, with two of those wins crucially being against Man City and Newcastle. A massive ask but if we can retain a fully fit squad I wouldn’t write us off
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 04, 2025, 11:07:02 AM
i did watch Barcelona the other night and i know teams have off days but i really wasn't that impressed by them.

That was their third game in 6 days.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on April 04, 2025, 11:12:44 AM
We've won 6 on the bounce in all competitions, and the last three by 3 goals to nil.

If anyone is coming into form at the right time, it's us.  Add in the return of Pau, Onana, and Barkley, and we also have room to rotate properly and not force players into doing 95+ minutes three times a week as the games start coming thick and fast.

It can obviously change quickly, but right now, if I were an impartial observer, I'd be looking at us as the dark horses timing their run just about right...

Beat Forest, and to quote Emi from last season, "I'm a believer mate!"
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on April 04, 2025, 11:13:37 AM
I think we’ll need five wins out of our remaining games, with two of those wins crucially being against Man City and Newcastle. A massive ask but if we can retain a fully fit squad I wouldn’t write us off

Yes also do factor in Newcastle h vs Chelsea have to play 10th May .
Will play Bournemouth away that day but there will be dropped points for at least one of Newcastle and Chelsea then.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on April 04, 2025, 11:16:31 AM
We've won 6 on the bounce in all competitions, and the last three by 3 goals to nil.

If anyone is coming into form at the right time, it's us.  Add in the return of Pau, Onana, and Barkley, and we also have room to rotate properly and not force players into doing 95+ minutes three times a week as the games start coming thick and fast.

It can obviously change quickly, but right now, if I were an impartial observer, I'd be looking at us as the dark horses timing their run just about right...

Beat Forest, and to quote Emi from last season, "I'm a believer mate!"

For 4th or 5th?
Despite Chelsea being 4th currently I do feel Man City should be taking 4th given their fixtures.
Only the game Sunday V Man Utd away and the game v Villa are two fixtures where they may drop points.

Chelsea away at Brentford could also see them drop points this weekend.

So it's a must win vs Forest this weekend.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 04, 2025, 11:17:06 AM
We even score in the 100th minute these days! Five Stars all round.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 04, 2025, 11:46:00 AM
Last season Newcastle were miles behind. The gap between Spurs in 5th and Man U in 6th at this stage last season was 8 points, the gap between Man City in 5th and Bournemouth in 10th is 7 points this season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on April 04, 2025, 11:52:16 AM
We've won 6 on the bounce in all competitions, and the last three by 3 goals to nil.

If anyone is coming into form at the right time, it's us.  Add in the return of Pau, Onana, and Barkley, and we also have room to rotate properly and not force players into doing 95+ minutes three times a week as the games start coming thick and fast.

It can obviously change quickly, but right now, if I were an impartial observer, I'd be looking at us as the dark horses timing their run just about right...

Beat Forest, and to quote Emi from last season, "I'm a believer mate!"

Two seasons ago we had an unlikely target and acheived it, last season ditto. I'm feeling confident we'll do it again.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on April 04, 2025, 03:53:15 PM
We've won 6 on the bounce in all competitions, and the last three by 3 goals to nil.

If anyone is coming into form at the right time, it's us.  Add in the return of Pau, Onana, and Barkley, and we also have room to rotate properly and not force players into doing 95+ minutes three times a week as the games start coming thick and fast.

It can obviously change quickly, but right now, if I were an impartial observer, I'd be looking at us as the dark horses timing their run just about right...

Beat Forest, and to quote Emi from last season, "I'm a believer mate!"

Two seasons ago we had an unlikely target and acheived it, last season ditto. I'm feeling confident we'll do it again.

I think we’ll finish 5th rather than 4th
I think Villa looking around 63pts-65pts if not lose a game now -so where would that place us ?
Beating Newcastle and Man City give hope as takes points from them but have to better Chelsea , Man City and Newcastle results

I think 5th is more realistic and possible than 4th given circumstances

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on April 04, 2025, 03:59:01 PM
Chelsea then only need to win half their games to get similar points to Villa if we win 6 of our last 8
Man City I can see win them 6/8
Newcastle play Villa and have to win that match and then that should see us ahead of them if we aren’t already!

Once ahead of Newcastle then I trust us more than Chelsea to finish 5th.
Chelsea will have the european conference league distraction in contrast to our European and FA cup distractions .

To get 4th because of goal difference and only 8 games is very hard don’t you think?
Be very frustrating now if don’t get there so just have to keep winning games now and see what happens!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Footy-Vill on April 05, 2025, 02:47:24 PM
The southampton match is inbetween PSG and I predict Villa will be doing similar testing and rotation like Arsenal did today v Everton- they came unstuck.
Now currently we have far more choice than Arsenal so those who get game time against Southampton like to think will step up.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 05, 2025, 07:30:27 PM
51 points and 0 GD. Citeh play Manure away and derbies can go any direction. Chelsea have Brentford away and Newcastle have the easiest at Leicester on Monday.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 05, 2025, 07:36:16 PM
Maybe, just maybe.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Astnor on April 05, 2025, 07:43:43 PM
Will be very close.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Astnor on April 05, 2025, 07:44:14 PM
Will be close.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on April 05, 2025, 07:45:15 PM
Before last 2 games I thought we'd need 20 from 27. I think we need 14 from 21 now. Maybe 15.

Depends on whether Forest fold or not. Cit-eh have easiest fixtures. Toon I expect to finish above us too.

We need big favours tomorrow from the West London Bees and the Satanic herd.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 05, 2025, 07:47:32 PM
Keep winning and see where it takes us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 05, 2025, 08:01:31 PM
Yep. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on April 05, 2025, 08:05:38 PM
GLORY GLORY MAN UNITED!!!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 05, 2025, 08:07:59 PM
Just flashed up on Sky that Opta give us 21.6% chance, which feels about right.

That'll go right up with a couple of favourable results tomorrow/Monday.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 05, 2025, 08:11:47 PM
Just flashed up on Sky that Opta give us 21.6% chance, which feels about right.

That'll go right up with a couple of favourable results tomorrow/Monday.

I think it was around 8% a week ago. Every extra win will stick another 10% or so on it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 05, 2025, 08:20:43 PM
Southampton next week. Win that and we might be touching 40% with a couple of favourable results elsewhere. Plus, all this talk of how difficult our run in is...two of the top eight now?

Said a couple of weeks ago we'll see after Brighton and Forest. Well, we've won them both...and I haven't got a fucking clue. Starting to feel the faith though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 05, 2025, 08:37:25 PM
Second in the league since 4th Feb. Everything's coming up Millhouse.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 05, 2025, 08:37:37 PM
Southampton next week. Win that and we might be touching 40% with a couple of favourable results elsewhere.

Think we all know what the Villa way is though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 05, 2025, 08:42:40 PM
Please God, no. Just no.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on April 05, 2025, 08:43:59 PM
Second in the league since 4th Feb. Everything's coming up Millhouse.

The difference this year compared to last year is pretty profound. Last year we felt like we were limping to the finishing line. Often playing the same line-up week in week out (because we had to).

This year we can make EIGHT changes, and still put out a really strong team and beat the team that's currently 3rd in the league.

No one, and I really mean no one, will want to play us right now.

It does feel like something has to go wrong at some point, and though our winning run is now 7 in all competitions, it WILL come to an end sooner or later.  If it's going to end, I'd  like it to end with a draw in Paris, and then back to winning ways against Southampton in the league - but we'll see!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on April 05, 2025, 08:44:57 PM
Before last 2 games I thought we'd need 20 from 27. I think we need 14 from 21 now. Maybe 15.

Depends on whether Forest fold or not. Cit-eh have easiest fixtures. Toon I expect to finish above us too.

We need big favours tomorrow from the West London Bees and the Satanic herd.

I reckon that's about right, given how many of the teams involved have to play each other I think 64 points might be enough and 66 is pretty much guaranteed top5.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 05, 2025, 08:45:58 PM
It does feel like something has to go wrong at some point, and though our winning run is now 7 in all competitions, it WILL come to an end sooner or later.  If it's going to end, I'd  like it to end with a draw in Paris, and then back to winning ways against Southampton in the league - but we'll see!

Even a one goal defeat in Paris would give us a chance in the 2nd leg. Dropping points to Soton would be a pisser though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 05, 2025, 08:49:18 PM
I reckon that's about right, given how many of the teams involved have to play each other I think 64 points might be enough and 66 is pretty much guaranteed top5.

The Forest forum I was reading the other day had a Champions League qualification thread (obviously) and there were a few posts about some boffins running thousands of simulations for the end of the season, like we were talking about on here for top eight in the Champions League.

64 points was their figure that was apparently good enough for fifth 99% of the time.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on April 05, 2025, 08:50:17 PM
Second in the league since 4th Feb. Everything's coming up Millhouse.

The difference this year compared to last year is pretty profound. Last year we felt like we were limping to the finishing line. Often playing the same line-up week in week out (because we had to).

This year we can make EIGHT changes, and still put out a really strong team and beat the team that's currently 3rd in the league.

No one, and I really mean no one, will want to play us right now.

It does feel like something has to go wrong at some point, and though our winning run is now 7 in all competitions, it WILL come to an end sooner or later.  If it's going to end, I'd  like it to end with a draw in Paris, and then back to winning ways against Southampton in the league - but we'll see!

Chelsea look like we did last year, I'd be surprised if they're in the mix with a couple to go, too many of their players look knackered or out of form.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on April 05, 2025, 08:51:13 PM
I reckon that's about right, given how many of the teams involved have to play each other I think 64 points might be enough and 66 is pretty much guaranteed top5.

The Forest forum I was reading the other day had a Champions League qualification thread (obviously) and there were a few posts about some boffins running thousands of simulations for the end of the season, like we were talking about on here for top eight in the Champions League.

64 points was their figure that was apparently good enough for fifth 99% of the time.

Yep, most seasons I'd be confident about it but with the 3 shit teams at the bottom and only really Liverpool running away at the top there's a few more points up for grabs this year than normal.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 06, 2025, 10:20:54 AM
Need the lower mid table clubs to be plucky today and pick up wins. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on April 06, 2025, 10:29:45 AM
Southampton next week. Win that and we might be touching 40% with a couple of favourable results elsewhere.

Think we all know what the Villa way is though.

Was. Was the Villa way.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 06, 2025, 12:16:26 PM
Nah, even this version still feels like it wants to dip its toes into the old ways every now and again.

We still seem very capable of turning the euphoria of finishing in the top eight of the Champions League into a meek defeat to a Wolves side that had lost their last four league matches.

Or celebrating nine points out of nine in the Champions League and one of our best performances of the season against Bologna by not winning any of our next eight games.

If we lose on Wednesday I'm pretty sure we'll do Southampton comfortably. If we win or draw, I reckon Southampton will be at least one point closer to matching Derby's record.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 06, 2025, 01:32:28 PM
Heavy rotation might save us. No way he's going full strength at Southampton, sandwiched between two PSG games, after we've done Forest following eight changes.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on April 06, 2025, 01:37:31 PM
Southampton next week. Win that and we might be touching 40% with a couple of favourable results elsewhere.

Think we all know what the Villa way is though.

Was. Was the Villa way.

Agree.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 06, 2025, 01:41:30 PM
Most of our 'Villa way' results under Unai came when the squad was fucked. Since nearly everyone came back we've won 7 in a row.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brend'Watkins on April 06, 2025, 01:45:26 PM
Southampton next week. Win that and we might be touching 40% with a couple of favourable results elsewhere.

Think we all know what the Villa way is though.

Was. Was the Villa way.

Agree.

So do I. 

Every player is looking over their shoulder apart from Emi. If you are not 100% on it you are hooked. That’s incentive enough to keep being the best version of yourself in games.

We were discussing Ollie’s dip in form after the match. I had the feeling he has a bit of imposter syndrome on the pitch lately. He shouldn’t have but it’s what I see. We have a wealth of talent waiting for their chance. Being okay isn’t enough anymore.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 06, 2025, 03:40:53 PM
Heavy rotation might save us. No way he's going full strength at Southampton, sandwiched between two PSG games, after we've done Forest following eight changes.

Do we even know what full strength is? With 8 changes after beating Brighton (who were above us) away we then beat the team in 3rd.

I think we have a variety of options that are all good now and it means there's no first choice. Apart from Emi Martinez.

We have different teams for different opponents.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 06, 2025, 03:56:35 PM
Martinez, Kamara, Tielemans and Rogers have to start the big games. Outside of that I'd be happy with any of them tbh.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 06, 2025, 04:03:37 PM
Martinez is guaranteed.

Kamara didn't start yesterday.

Tielemans plays pretty much every game, as does Rogers. But they don't have to. Barkley to me is the replacement for Tielemans. Asensio instead of Rogers (or as well as).

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 06, 2025, 04:08:32 PM
Sorry, should've been clearer. When I say big games I mean FA cup semi-final, FA Cup final, PSG and Real Madrid home and away, plus one game against Barcelona.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 06, 2025, 04:18:40 PM
Chelsea result was kind, Plop wasn't but we should be looking up and not down the table anyway. In two weeks time when we play Newcastle, we will know the Geordies true position as they will have played their games in hand AND it could be our chance to leap-frog Chelsea as they play Fulham away.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 06, 2025, 04:40:21 PM
Chelsea result was kind, Plop wasn't but we should be looking up and not down the table anyway.

Yeah, if it turns out that Fulham finish top five and we don't, it'll be far more about what we've failed to do over what they've succeeded in doing.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 06, 2025, 06:31:47 PM
Fully on now. Even if Newcastle win both their games in hand we're a result away from the top five, with no games in hand, out of absolutely no where. What you saying now Opta, you fucks?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 06, 2025, 06:36:32 PM
I'd like it to be Forest, us and Citeh that qualify. I think it will be Forest, us and Newcastle.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 06, 2025, 06:38:29 PM
Us, Forest and Newcastle would be great. Don't ever want to hear BIG SIX again if that happens. In fucking tatters.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 06, 2025, 06:46:50 PM
So long as we qualify and neither Man U nor Tottenham do, I'll be happy enough.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: enigma on April 06, 2025, 06:47:28 PM
Goal difference is what might kill our chances. Just have to keep on winning.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SaddVillan on April 06, 2025, 07:04:20 PM
Points earned over the last 6 games and points ahead or behind us

Liverpool          13   +22
Arsenal               9    +11
Forest               10     +6
Chelsea            10     +2
Man City             8     +1
VILLA                13
Toon                    9      -1
Fulham                9     -3
Brighton            10     -4
Bournemth          2     -6
Palace                13    -8






Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on April 06, 2025, 07:05:20 PM
Palace form is pretty good. We need to be wary of them in the semi.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SaddVillan on April 06, 2025, 07:16:59 PM
Palace form is pretty good. We need to be wary of them in the semi.

Very true VT.
Their last 6 league games

Everton H               L
Fulham A                W
Villa  H                    W
Ipswich H               W
Southampton A     D
Brighton H             W

You
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 06, 2025, 07:19:30 PM
Obviously it won't actually make a difference, but I'd bet anything that the equivalent thread on the Chelsea, Man City and Newcastle fora are all "well obviously Villa are nailed on for one of the places, the form they're in..."
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DrGonzo on April 06, 2025, 07:26:09 PM
Yes, we f'in will.  Peaking at the perfect moment. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 06, 2025, 07:38:39 PM
It’s interesting how many of the CL candidates have to play each other, so they are all going to take points off each other.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on April 06, 2025, 07:39:28 PM
If I thought or said no before I’m changing to yes. We look so focused and motivated vs Chelsea and Man City. We want it more than their players. Newcastle have the upper hand on 4th as it stands and with Leicester coming up fully expect them to do the business tomorrow. But we might see a Forest late season slip but they have points in the bag. But when it comes to that final spot we can absolutely beat Man City and Chelsea to it who both look devoid of ideas and bizarre to say, lacking in squad depth or motivated players to get to the finish line.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SaddVillan on April 06, 2025, 07:42:43 PM
Picking up on  TV's comment re Forest:

Forest's injury free stats returning to the mean?

From The Athletic:

Nottingham Forest will monitor the fitness of Taiwo Awoniyi and Anthony Elanga after both sustained injuries.

Nuno Espirito Santo says the club are awaiting the results of a scan on Awoniyi, who missed Saturday’s 2-1 defeat at Aston Villa, while Elanga had to be withdrawn at half-time in the fixture after picking up a knock.

With Chris Wood recovering from a hip problem he sustained on international duty with New Zealand, Forest are short of options in the final third although they will hope that Wood is fit to face Everton next weekend.

They've been very fortunate thus far.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on April 06, 2025, 07:43:49 PM
Palace form is pretty good. We need to be wary of them in the semi.

The most important part of them being in good form is that they still have to play Man City, Newcastle and Forest. If they can keep up they could do us a lot of favours.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on April 06, 2025, 07:47:38 PM
C115y looked awful today , Chelsea looked mediocre in the week v Spurs , Forest i think will choke but have just enough in the bag. Newcastle playing ok
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 07, 2025, 01:45:28 PM
We're currently 11/2 to make the top 5. That seems decent value compared to Citeh at 1/5 or Chelsea at 4/9.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 07, 2025, 02:10:46 PM
The latest rankings, but tbh I'm not convinced by some of the percentages.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gn67HTOXwAA_gjE?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on April 07, 2025, 02:13:01 PM
The latest rankings, but tbh I'm not convinced by some of the percentages.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gn67HTOXwAA_gjE?format=jpg&name=medium)

Would be some big movement there if Newcastle somehow failed to win tonight
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: darren woolley on April 07, 2025, 02:14:46 PM
I really think we can get CL football again we have a nearly fully fit squad and they are looking good I'm so positive every time they go on the pitch.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Richard on April 07, 2025, 02:18:21 PM
The latest rankings, but tbh I'm not convinced by some of the percentages.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gn67HTOXwAA_gjE?format=jpg&name=medium)

Man Citys percentage is especially high without Haaland and playing as crap as they did yesterday.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on April 07, 2025, 02:19:31 PM
The latest rankings, but tbh I'm not convinced by some of the percentages.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gn67HTOXwAA_gjE?format=jpg&name=medium)

a 25% gap between us and Chelsea is funny enough but a 66% gap to Man City, a point ahead of us is laughable. The Newcastle one is the only realistic one giventheir games in hand.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Hookeysmith on April 07, 2025, 02:35:25 PM
So long as we qualify and neither Man U nor Tottenham do, I'll be happy enough.

Hear hear - and we have to hope and pray (if that is your thing) that the footballing masters see sense and fuck Man Shitty into oblivion for their cheating.

If the media then continue to suck up the "top 6" when they are no where near it - then we know the game is a rigged deck
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 07, 2025, 02:37:31 PM
Opta on Sky had us at 28(?) before Chelsea and Man City drew, so I'd take it with a pinch of salt.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 07, 2025, 02:43:17 PM
a 25% gap between us and Chelsea is funny enough but a 66% gap to Man City, a point ahead of us is laughable. The Newcastle one is the only realistic one given their games in hand.

Forest at 83.5% seems about right (maybe even a little low) but having Citeh ahead of them on 85% seems well off.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: jwarry on April 07, 2025, 04:38:20 PM
The latest rankings, but tbh I'm not convinced by some of the percentages.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gn67HTOXwAA_gjE?format=jpg&name=medium)

a 25% gap between us and Chelsea is funny enough but a 66% gap to Man City, a point ahead of us is laughable. The Newcastle one is the only realistic one giventheir games in hand.

Except they have to play us
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 07, 2025, 04:40:54 PM
On Chelsea's form:

Quote
On December 8, Chelsea beat Spurs 4-3 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

In eight Premier League away games combined since that nonsense they’ve cobbled together exactly the same number of points and scored fewer goals.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aldridgeboy on April 07, 2025, 07:08:10 PM
I’ve read today that is any of the English teams win in Europe this week, 5th place is guaranteed a Champions League Spot.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on April 07, 2025, 07:59:16 PM
I’ve read today that is any of the English teams win in Europe this week, 5th place is guaranteed a Champions League Spot.

I think if any of Inter, Lazio or Fiorentina fail to win that's also enough.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lennythekad on April 07, 2025, 08:24:25 PM
I think Italy need to win all three trophies, with their teams winning every leg on the way. If any English side gets at least a draw, this week, that’ll be enough to guarantee a 5th spot in the CL. In other words, it’s nailed on for five places.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on April 07, 2025, 08:28:30 PM
I think Italy need to win all three trophies, with their teams winning every leg on the way. If any English side gets at least a draw, this week, that’ll be enough to guarantee a 5th spot in the CL. In other words, it’s nailed on for five places.

I think they need to face Spanish teams in all 3 finals as well.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 07, 2025, 08:30:46 PM
I’ve read today that is any of the English teams win in Europe this week, 5th place is guaranteed a Champions League Spot.

I think if any of Inter, Lazio or Fiorentina fail to win that's also enough.

I think it needs to be one more defeat (or an Italian draw coupled with an English draw). Hopefully it won't be confirmed until after our game has finished.

I think the Spanish league could also secure the extra spot this week, which is bad news on the basis I like Bologna but good news on the basis that I also have a soft spot for Bilbao.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 08, 2025, 09:02:14 AM
It could easily come down to goals difference this year.  Which isn't great for us!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on April 08, 2025, 09:14:26 AM
It could easily come down to goals difference this year.  Which isn't great for us!

It's always possible but rarely ever happens.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 08, 2025, 09:42:47 AM
It could easily come down to goals difference this year.  Which isn't great for us!

It's always possible but rarely ever happens.

Agreed, but looking at the table as it is today, you wouldn't rule it out this year! 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 08, 2025, 10:36:44 AM
At the moment, you do have to think this will be the one in 10 times it happens.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 08, 2025, 10:40:00 AM
Just checked Crystal Palace's coming matches, and they have to play our rivals in the four matches before and after the Semi. So they could fuck us over in the league and the cup or could really make our season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aldridgeboy on April 08, 2025, 11:07:39 AM

(https://i.ibb.co/GfYL9YwT/IMG-3549.jpg) (https://ibb.co/GfYL9YwT)


Newcastle have a tougher run in than us “ on paper “. Chelsea do as well.
I think we get 5th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on April 08, 2025, 11:12:46 AM

(https://i.ibb.co/GfYL9YwT/IMG-3549.jpg) (https://ibb.co/GfYL9YwT)


Newcastle have a tougher run in than us “ on paper “. Chelsea do as well.
I think we get 5th.

I've found myself ignoring who has who in upcoming fixtures at this stage of the season, you can drive yourself mad trying to work it out.

If we keep winning we'll qualify, if we cough up anymore cheap points we wont.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aldridgeboy on April 08, 2025, 11:26:51 AM
Yes , “ on paper “ tends to go out of the window towards the end of the season.
Relegated teams start to play with freedom ( hopefully not this weekend ) and the last day always throws up crazy results.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: London Villan on April 08, 2025, 11:30:22 AM
A quick prediction for us is potentiallly another 13 or 14 points - which will make it very close. Have to beat Newcastle at Villa Park and not lose to Man City away.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on April 08, 2025, 11:36:01 AM
Yes , “ on paper “ tends to go out of the window towards the end of the season.
Relegated teams start to play with freedom ( hopefully not this weekend ) and the last day always throws up crazy results.

I remember when we were circling the drain under Lambert watching Sunderland somehow win 2-0 at Everton despite getting battered all game, and thinking this isn't good for my health, being emotionally over-invested in one team's outcomes is quite enough.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TaxDodger on April 08, 2025, 11:38:36 AM
Possibly an obvious summary, but if we can get 7-9 points from our next three fixtures then we're right in the mix. Anything else and we'll probably be looking at trying to make sure we finish 7th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on April 08, 2025, 11:46:49 AM
Newcastle at home and Man City away will be tough coming so soon after the PSG home game. I can imagine that PSG game taking a lot out of us emotionally and physically. At least Newcastle have a game as well, as I thought they would have a clear week to prepare for it.

I think Chelsea and Man City are our biggest rivals. If our form is better than theirs, we can get 5th. I'm expecting Forest and Newcastle to finish above us. If 3-5 finishes as Forest, Newcastle, us and Chelsea/City have to make do with Europa League, that would be ideal.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on April 08, 2025, 12:09:02 PM
Possibly an obvious summary, but if we can get 7-9 points from our next three fixtures then we're right in the mix. Anything else and we'll probably be looking at trying to make sure we finish 7th.

We are already in the mix.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 08, 2025, 12:13:39 PM
Possibly an obvious summary, but if we can get 7-9 points from our next three fixtures then we're right in the mix.

7 points from the next 3, 10 points from the last 4. 68 points should be enough to get 5th place at least.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on April 08, 2025, 12:15:01 PM
Possibly an obvious summary, but if we can get 7-9 points from our next three fixtures then we're right in the mix.

7 points from the next 3, 10 points from the last 4. 68 points should be enough to get 5th place at least.

Knowing us the single point would be at Southampton.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on April 08, 2025, 12:18:56 PM
Possibly an obvious summary, but if we can get 7-9 points from our next three fixtures then we're right in the mix.

7 points from the next 3, 10 points from the last 4. 68 points should be enough to get 5th place at least.

64 points would have been enough for 5th place last season; 67 points for 4th. In fact, our goal difference was better than Spurs' by 2 so we could have finished on 66 points and still got 4th but I'd rather it not be such close margins. My nerves would be shredded.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 08, 2025, 12:27:19 PM
Newcastle have a tougher run in than us “ on paper “. Chelsea do as well.
I think we get 5th.

It'll be interesting to see who we're cheering for by the time Newcastle and Forest play Chelsea.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TaxDodger on April 08, 2025, 12:30:03 PM
Possibly an obvious summary, but if we can get 7-9 points from our next three fixtures then we're right in the mix. Anything else and we'll probably be looking at trying to make sure we finish 7th.

We are already in the mix.

Well, yes. But I think we need 7-9 points from our next three games to remain in said mix.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 08, 2025, 12:55:28 PM
2. Arsenal 77
3. Man City 71
4. Chelsea 70
5. Newcastle 69
6. Forest 66
7. Villa 62
8. Brighton 61
9. Fulham 56
10. Bournemouth 54
11. Palace 53

Champions League if we win Champions League. Europa League if we don't, unless Palace win FA Cup in which case it's Conference League. IMO.

(Yes, another busy morning at work).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 08, 2025, 01:40:53 PM
Not sure about that. Can't see Chelsea getting much more than 10-12 points, and at least 13-15 points should be within our grasp.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 08, 2025, 01:43:18 PM
Sorry, those are the official numbers.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on April 08, 2025, 01:47:15 PM
Sorry, those are the official numbers.

Be more optimistic you miserable sod.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 08, 2025, 01:50:19 PM
Wins against Southampton, Fulham and Tottenham, draws against Newcastle and Bournemouth and two defeats in Manchester, as usual, doesn't seem unreasonable.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on April 08, 2025, 01:54:24 PM
Wins against Southampton, Fulham and Tottenham, draws against Newcastle and Bournemouth and two defeats in Manchester, as usual, doesn't seem unreasonable.

As long as that’s with an 8th FA Cup and a 2nd European Cup you’re forgiven.

Also I think we’re going to win at Manchester Coty for the first time since Noah was a lad.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 08, 2025, 01:55:17 PM
Just the European Cup, I'm afraid. I'm more confident of beating PSG than Crystal sodding Palace.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VancouverLion on April 08, 2025, 02:18:27 PM
Just the European Cup, I'm afraid. I'm more confident of beating PSG than Crystal sodding Palace.
CD, funny, I messaged my cousin in Brum those exact words after the draw.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aldridgeboy on April 08, 2025, 03:04:09 PM
Maybe the premier league gets its house in order,  and sorts the point deduction for Man City before the end of the season.

"Would you want to get a CL spot on the back of another team getting a point deduction though?"

Too bloody right I would
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on April 08, 2025, 03:27:41 PM
Maybe the premier league gets its house in order,  and sorts the point deduction for Man City before the end of the season.

"Would you want to get a CL spot on the back of another team getting a point deduction though?"

Too bloody right I would

Hear hear. Those cheating bastards deserve every single bit of what’s coming to them.  Will it be enough, probably not but I’ll be cheering whatever it is.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TaxDodger on April 08, 2025, 03:43:42 PM
Maybe the premier league gets its house in order,  and sorts the point deduction for Man City before the end of the season.

"Would you want to get a CL spot on the back of another team getting a point deduction though?"

Too bloody right I would

Absolutely. Particularly if it's fucking Man City. Their cheating has involved them stealing our best players on four separate occasions. They owe us more than anybody.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 08, 2025, 03:46:37 PM
A points deduction?
I doubt it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 08, 2025, 03:47:05 PM
Newcastle at home and Man City away will be tough coming so soon after the PSG home game. I can imagine that PSG game taking a lot out of us emotionally and physically. At least Newcastle have a game as well, as I thought they would have a clear week to prepare for it. 

I think we have an extra night off before we play Newcastle (our return leg against PSG is next Tues while they play on the Weds) while the Citeh game is also now on a Tuesday with both teams having played the previous Sat.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dick Edwards on April 08, 2025, 04:33:46 PM
Wins against Southampton, Fulham and Tottenham, draws against Newcastle and Bournemouth and two defeats in Manchester, as usual, doesn't seem unreasonable.
Personally I don’t think that will be enough to get a top five finish, unless Man City are docked points.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 08, 2025, 04:35:16 PM
Wins against Southampton, Fulham and Tottenham, draws against Newcastle and Bournemouth and two defeats in Manchester, as usual, doesn't seem unreasonable.
Personally I don’t think that will be enough to get a top five finish, unless Man City are docked points.

His prediction with those results has us finishing seventh.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 08, 2025, 06:19:01 PM
Pretty sure my table will prove to be accurate.

Because I will keep updating it after each set of results so eventually it ends up being correct by default.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tuscans on April 08, 2025, 09:46:15 PM
5th place qualifies for Champions League next season because of Arsenals win v Real Madrid.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 08, 2025, 10:38:54 PM
Boo.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 08, 2025, 10:39:38 PM
Although I suppose it does promote us from Conference League to Europa League if we don't win a trophy.

So, yay.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 08, 2025, 10:40:39 PM
Although I suppose it does promote us from Conference League to Europa League if we don't win a trophy.

So, yay.

Unless Palace win the cup
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 09, 2025, 12:26:54 PM
True. But still promotes us from not in Europe to Conference League in those circumstances so good news either way.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on April 12, 2025, 04:59:00 PM
Yes.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aldridgeboy on April 12, 2025, 05:04:38 PM
We could. We should. We can

Hopefully the Forest implosion most though would come after Xmas ( Then Feb, then March etc) now comes.
Man City might still get points deduction
We keep getting result :)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Max Villan on April 12, 2025, 05:09:36 PM
Big steps taken today, if Ipswich (and Man U lol) could pull off a shock tomorrow it will be a great weekend.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 12, 2025, 05:26:45 PM
Newcastle play ManU and Palace at home this week. Away points for both would be very nice.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on April 12, 2025, 05:27:11 PM
Yes.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chap on April 12, 2025, 05:28:46 PM
Agreed
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 12, 2025, 05:29:14 PM
Just have to keep winning.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 12, 2025, 06:24:06 PM
It's all still very much up in the air, I'm not sure if we'll finish 3rd, 4th or 5th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on April 12, 2025, 06:27:26 PM
Post international break thought we needed  21 points from 9 games.

We now need 12 from 6.

Next Saturday becomes bigger by the moment.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 12, 2025, 06:32:03 PM
Said a few weeks ago we need an obscene run. We're halfway there.

Still need wins as we're technically behind. Next two games are just fucking massive.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 12, 2025, 06:35:56 PM
Next two games are just fucking massive.

4 points would be good, 6 would leave us in an excellent position. Not losing either game is key.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: The Man With A Stick on April 12, 2025, 07:11:20 PM
I will laugh my bollocks off if those cloggers Forest bottle it.  Only bad thing would be if the likes of Chelsea or Saudi Arabia get in at their expense. 

Honestly think we'll take 4 points from the Man City / Saudi games and we'll be fine.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 12, 2025, 07:21:39 PM
We've got McGinn, I just don't think our rivals understand. So, yes.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Andy_Lochhead_in_the_air on April 12, 2025, 07:31:19 PM
One big win by us, or a big loss by either Forest or Newcastle may bring goal difference back into the equation. We are presently +3, Forest and Newcastle +13.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on April 12, 2025, 07:34:57 PM
We've got McGinn, I just don't think our rivals understand. So, yes.
He is Unai Emery’s man, of course
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 12, 2025, 07:42:55 PM
Forest getting dragged back into it is big.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: The Man With A Stick on April 12, 2025, 08:03:45 PM
Forest getting dragged back into it is big.

They've run out of steam by April, it's like MON is back in charge.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 12, 2025, 08:09:31 PM
One big win by us, or a big loss by either Forest or Newcastle may bring goal difference back into the equation. We are presently +3, Forest and Newcastle +13.

None of our remaining games are against bottom feeders though. Mind you, we owe Newcastle a 5-1 smacking or similar.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 12, 2025, 08:37:55 PM
Premier League form table:

Quote
1    Aston Villa   Aston Villa   6   4   1   1   12:7   5   13   L W D W W W
2    Manchester City   Man City English Champion 23/24   6   3   2   1   10:5   5   11   W L D W D W
3    Chelsea FC   Chelsea   5   3   1   1   6:1   5   10   W W L W D
4    Liverpool FC   Liverpool   5   3   1   1   10:6   4   10   W W D W L
5    Crystal Palace   Crystal Palace   5   3   1   1   10:8   2   10   W W D W L
6    Nottingham Forest   Nottm Forest   6   3   1   2   7:5   2   10   D W W W L L
7    Wolverhampton Wanderers   Wolves   5   3   1   1   7:5   2   10   L D W W W
8    Arsenal FC   Arsenal   6   2   4   0   6:4   2   10   D D W W D D
9    Newcastle United   Newcastle   4   3   0   1   6:3   3   9   L W W W

Bit annoying that it's those two in second and third, otherwise it feels like it would actually be a bit of a stroll.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: hipkiss92 on April 12, 2025, 08:38:02 PM
One big win by us, or a big loss by either Forest or Newcastle may bring goal difference back into the equation. We are presently +3, Forest and Newcastle +13.

None of our remaining games are against bottom feeders though. Mind you, we owe Newcastle a 5-1 smacking or similar.
Other than United and Spurs
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on April 12, 2025, 09:32:52 PM
Premier League form table:

Quote
1    Aston Villa   Aston Villa   6   4   1   1   12:7   5   13   L W D W W W
2    Manchester City   Man City English Champion 23/24   6   3   2   1   10:5   5   11   W L D W D W
3    Chelsea FC   Chelsea   5   3   1   1   6:1   5   10   W W L W D
4    Liverpool FC   Liverpool   5   3   1   1   10:6   4   10   W W D W L
5    Crystal Palace   Crystal Palace   5   3   1   1   10:8   2   10   W W D W L
6    Nottingham Forest   Nottm Forest   6   3   1   2   7:5   2   10   D W W W L L
7    Wolverhampton Wanderers   Wolves   5   3   1   1   7:5   2   10   L D W W W
8    Arsenal FC   Arsenal   6   2   4   0   6:4   2   10   D D W W D D
9    Newcastle United   Newcastle   4   3   0   1   6:3   3   9   L W W W

Bit annoying that it's those two in second and third, otherwise it feels like it would actually be a bit of a stroll.

Chelsea includes home games v Saints, Leicester and Spurs and tomorrow Ipswich.

There next 4 are losses to Everton, Fulham, Liverpool and Newcastle.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Matt C on April 13, 2025, 03:19:26 AM
Forest look like we did this time last year. What was coming easily is now difficult, injuries, pressure mounting, starting to feel like a slog… sometimes it’s easier being the hunter than the hunted.

 The annoyance is Citeh have found some form.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eye digress on April 13, 2025, 07:42:29 AM
We’ve done nothing more than put ourselves back in contention. The equation remains the same, in my view: be within mathematical striking distance of the Jaudis when they come to Villa Park (which means them dropping points today or on Wednesday), and beat them. If we can do that, we will have several routes to finishing 5th or higher, rather than the unique and very narrow one we are currently on.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 13, 2025, 07:44:59 AM
 Can see Forest falling like a stone now, which is marvellous. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 13, 2025, 07:49:24 AM
We've got McGinn, I just don't think our rivals understand. So, yes.
He is Unai Emery’s man, of course

Not sure if you've heard but he's better than Zidane.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: JJ-AV on April 13, 2025, 09:01:59 AM
I don't think we'll do it tbh, but we can probably afford to lose one of Man City and Newcastle should we win one.

I think Forest losing is a big thing for us - I fancied us to finish ahead of Chelsea but not Man City/Newcastle, Forest suddenly look like they could be caught which even after beating them felt unrealistic as they played quite well. They've some decent games too.

If we can beat Newcastle then we're probably 4 wins from doing it. But we have to beat Newcastle, which is arguably a bigger game than PSG now in some ways...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 13, 2025, 09:53:07 AM
Be interesting to see if Chelsea put Ipswich away like we did Southampton yesterday, and to see how Tindel gets on without Howe. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on April 13, 2025, 10:12:11 AM
What are those Opta Stats looking like now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eye digress on April 13, 2025, 10:26:48 AM
I don't think we'll do it tbh, but we can probably afford to lose one of Man City and Newcastle should we win one.

I think Forest losing is a big thing for us - I fancied us to finish ahead of Chelsea but not Man City/Newcastle, Forest suddenly look like they could be caught which even after beating them felt unrealistic as they played quite well. They've some decent games too.

If we can beat Newcastle then we're probably 4 wins from doing it. But we have to beat Newcastle, which is arguably a bigger game than PSG now in some ways...
I think a total haul of 64 or 65 points is the most likely outcome for us - 3 wins and 1 or 2 draws. And even that will be with a titanic effort.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 13, 2025, 10:27:31 AM
I don't get why people think it's unlikely?  What am I missing?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on April 13, 2025, 10:34:46 AM
No, i don't get it either. A few weeks ago some people were saying we had left it too late when we clearly hadn't. 






Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 13, 2025, 10:53:13 AM
Definition of unlikely is less than half. Mathematically it's unlikely as we are in fifth and the two teams below us have one point less, but one and two games in hand and PPG ratios of 1.71 and 1.77 respectively.

A few weeks ago it was very unlikely, so it's getting there. Keep winning and we'll be fine. Don't and we won't.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Max Villan on April 13, 2025, 11:01:10 AM
If we beat Newcastle, I can see it happening. Chelsea play Forest and Newcastle in the run in which works out well for us. We owe Newcastle a good result as well.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SoccerHQ on April 13, 2025, 12:09:59 PM
Main formula now is to get 7 points from the three VP games left.

We have taken at least a point from every single league  and CL game from late August and that is over 20 games so no reason not to be confident on that.

Gets us to 61 points and then it is a case of getting two away wins.

I think 67 points will be enough. Go back two months and Bournemouth away would've been very difficult to win but they're now on their lovely beach having lost to Wolves and Ipswich recently so that should be easier to win than Brentford was.

I also have a feeling that is probably deluded but we're finally going to turn up in Manchester and play well this season. Man. City could be another Arsenal performance from the run in last season when we were brilliant second half. Everyone on here would take playing them in the run in without Rodri and Haaland around.

The main thing is we're ahead of Forest and Chelsea going into the final day as they play each other so would pretty much guarantee finishing above one of them and then it's a case of beating Man. United at Old Trafford to make CL....easy peasey based on their general home record this year....o.k perhaps not!

They might be in the Europa league final which would be the Wednesday before so that would impact their team selection.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tony Daleys Shorts on April 13, 2025, 12:45:17 PM
Sounds like a piece of piss when you put it like that Soccer HQ. I’m on board, I think we’ll finish 5th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on April 13, 2025, 12:55:27 PM
No, i don't get it either. A few weeks ago some people were saying we had left it too late when we clearly hadn't.

Maybe people were looking at our league position rather than the small number of points we needed to make up, which I thought was an overly pessimistic way of viewing things. A bit like how people wrote off our chances last season while failing to realise that Spurs were nailed on to lose most of their games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 13, 2025, 01:17:34 PM
Definition of unlikely is less than half. Mathematically it's unlikely as we are in fifth and the two teams below us have one point less, but one and two games in hand and PPG ratios of 1.71 and 1.77 respectively.

A few weeks ago it was very unlikely, so it's getting there. Keep winning and we'll be fine. Don't and we won't.

Yup.

It's gone from "very unlikely" shortly after the Palace game, and as each win is ticked off the scales move.

Right now I reckon we're sitting somewhere around "quite possible" on that scale. Beat Newcastle on Saturday and it'll move to "a really good chance". Beat Man City and we'll be up to "quite likely".
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 13, 2025, 01:23:50 PM
The time most people thought we wouldn't was when we were conceding for fun, had won 1 in 7 drawing at home to 10 man Ipswich and being twatted by Palace and Wolves, and had played more games than anyone else. It wasn't overly negative thinking at that time.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on April 13, 2025, 01:38:20 PM
The time most people thought we wouldn't was when we were conceding for fun, had won 1 in 7 drawing at home to 10 man Ipswich and being twatted by Palace and Wolves, and had played more games than anyone else. It wasn't overly negative thinking at that time.

In a period of 6 wins, 5 draws (including 2 v Arse and Liverpool) and 3 defeats though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Steve67 on April 13, 2025, 01:49:09 PM
Whilst I'm a grumpy fecker and think we won't do it, it is in our hands with Newcastle and Man City to play.  Previously, we also had Bournemouth ahead of us and they have since dropped away dramatically, hope Forest do the same.  It's exciting to see us in form, with the squad that we have and for people to be talking seriously about us.  Goal difference might come back to haunt us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on April 13, 2025, 01:50:03 PM
That Jan/Feb kind of reminded me of the Deano promotion season. We just kept drawing games and everyone thought it was all over. March begins and hold onto your hats!!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 13, 2025, 01:52:01 PM
Time will tell us, what else will more games tell us. We were 17th in last 6 games current form after the Palace game. We weren't out of it but it was hardly some crazy negative thinking that we wouldn't do it at that time.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on April 13, 2025, 02:25:22 PM
Despite the iffy run, points wise we wasn't far away at all. Even now we're 5th, people are still not convinced. Have a bit of faith in the boys, they've earned  it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DrGonzo on April 13, 2025, 02:35:35 PM
We've got a hellish run in, but you've got to play all the teams twice so it shows how poor we have been at times this year.  Others seem to be struggling. Our next 3 games will go a long way to deciding the issue.  PSG being, obviously, the biggest test, FC Saudi and Saudi FC...if we can take 4 points we'll have done very well.  oh, and, Come you Tractor Boys!!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on April 13, 2025, 02:46:42 PM
Time will tell us, what else will more games tell us. We were 17th in last 6 games current form after the Palace game. We weren't out of it but it was hardly some crazy negative thinking that we wouldn't do it at that time.

Even that’s a bit negative, using only league games as a measure of our actual form.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 13, 2025, 02:49:29 PM
So not crazy negative then. We got there in the end.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on April 13, 2025, 03:37:36 PM
So not crazy negative then. We got there in the end.

I don’t think we were ever not there. I can’t remember anyone saying crazy negative.

But shrinking a sample size and dismissing CL and FA Cup victories as not part of our form is, I dunno, unnecessarily negative if you’re after the exact word.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 13, 2025, 03:37:50 PM
We've got a hellish run in, but you've got to play all the teams twice so it shows how poor we have been at times this year.  Others seem to be struggling. Our next 3 games will go a long way to deciding the issue.  PSG being, obviously, the biggest test, FC Saudi and Saudi FC...if we can take 4 points we'll have done very well.  oh, and, Come you Tractor Boys!!

The flipside of that though if we do get positive results it does much more damage. Also those teams were playing are under pressure.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 13, 2025, 03:40:31 PM
So not crazy negative then. We got there in the end.

I don’t think we were ever not there. I can’t remember anyone saying crazy negative.

You keep replying to my posts about how it wasn't particularly negative to think we wouldn't do it after Palace. And as you weren't agreeing I made the assumption you were diagreeing.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 13, 2025, 03:43:27 PM
We were well on course to qualify before PWS jinxed us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on April 13, 2025, 03:45:31 PM
So not crazy negative then. We got there in the end.

I don’t think we were ever not there. I can’t remember anyone saying crazy negative.

You keep replying to my posts about how it wasn't particularly negative to think we wouldn't do it after Palace. And as you weren't agreeing I made the assumption you were diagreeing.

Keep replying? I replied to one about that, and one pointing out that you had shrunk the sample size to make out we were worse than we actually were.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 13, 2025, 03:47:11 PM
So replying to every post i've made. We got there in the end as well.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on April 13, 2025, 03:49:27 PM
We were well on course to qualify before PWS jinxed us.

"Exhort one another every day, as long as it is called "today," that none of you may be hardened by the deceitfulness of sin." Daryl 3:12–14.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on April 13, 2025, 03:54:51 PM
So replying to every post i've made. We got there in the end as well.

I haven’t replied to every post you’ve made, and furthermore you can’t massage those statistics in your desperate crusade to be always right.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 13, 2025, 03:58:50 PM
This is the 7th post i've made on this thread today, you replied to the previous 6. So yes, so far you've replied to every one.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on April 13, 2025, 03:59:40 PM
This is the 7th post i've made on this thread today, you replied to the previous 6. So yes, so far you've replied to every one.

You said ‘every post you’ve made’. Wrong. We got there in the end.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 13, 2025, 04:01:30 PM
Well most people have the intelligence to know what I meant, some are sad enough to try score a point on the internet though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on April 13, 2025, 04:06:14 PM
Well most people have the intelligence to know what I meant, some are sad enough to try score a point on the internet though.

We got there in the end. By the way, I replied to Clampy first before you piped up.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 13, 2025, 04:07:35 PM
I think we've know you're sad for quite a while. Don't forget to add this to your spreadsheet for extra points.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on April 13, 2025, 04:09:44 PM
Come on, we've all had a Carabao.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 13, 2025, 04:12:07 PM
He's having a go at spreadsheets, now!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on April 13, 2025, 04:14:33 PM
I think we've know you're sad for quite a while. Don't forget to add this to your spreadsheet for extra points.

Sigh. Getting personal again. We often get there in the end with you.

I’ll try not to discuss anything or disagree with you again, I know you don’t like it.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: olaftab on April 13, 2025, 04:19:40 PM
Next two games are crucial. Don't lose any and we are in.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 13, 2025, 04:34:13 PM
Well I’d say we need to win at least one of the next two. The Forest and Chelsea results are big because so many of the clubs play each other. Three spots being up for grabs makes it very doable if we continue our good form.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: adrenachrome on April 13, 2025, 05:27:48 PM
*Wrong thread*
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on April 13, 2025, 05:29:02 PM
Next two games are crucial. Don't lose any and we are in.

I'd agree with this - win either one of them or draw both will be put us a box seat.

The reason after Palace game I thought we'd struggle was because we had 42 points from 28 games and thought we'd need 65 points to qualify (66 due to goal difference).

I though we'd be on 49 by now so too far off. Now I think we need 12 from 6 games.

Momentum is with us, Cit-eh and Toon. Alas they are our next 2 games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Richard on April 13, 2025, 06:03:39 PM
Think we'll finish 5th behind Newcastle and Man City. Chelsea 6th, Forest 7th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on April 13, 2025, 06:05:25 PM
Massive game against Newcastle.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: itbrvilla on April 13, 2025, 06:07:39 PM
Think we'll finish 5th behind Newcastle and Man City. Chelsea 6th, Forest 7th.
That's my feeling.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 13, 2025, 06:45:21 PM
Howe's Eddie in hospital? Must have perked-up after his bestie Jase masterminded that win. Newcastle are the team I want us to crush more than any other. They've just taken the piss in our last three encounters.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 13, 2025, 07:01:19 PM
It’s 3 from Citeh Chelsea Forest Newcastle and us.
I think Newcastle have the easiest run in.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 13, 2025, 07:30:15 PM
If we get 4-6 points in the next two games we’re in a great position.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 13, 2025, 08:25:03 PM
It’s 3 from Citeh Chelsea Forest Newcastle and us.
I think Newcastle have the easiest run in.


Palace, Brighton, Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton. Could make a case for defeats in any of them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 14, 2025, 10:02:25 AM
It’s 3 from Citeh Chelsea Forest Newcastle and us.
I think Newcastle have the easiest run in.


Palace, Brighton, Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton. Could make a case for defeats in any of them.
We need someone to put the run in of Forest Citeh Newcastle Chelsea.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 14, 2025, 10:08:17 AM
Forest  - Spurs A, Brentford H, Crystal Palace A, Leicester H, West Ham A, Chelsea H
Man City - Everton A, Villa H, Wolves H, Southampton A, Bournemouth H, Fulham A
Newcastle - Palace H, Villa A, Ipswich H, Brighton A, Chelsea H, Arsenal A, Everton H
Chelsea - Fulham A, Everton H, Liverpool H, Newcastle A, Man Utd H, Forest A
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 14, 2025, 10:10:57 AM
If I were a fan of any of those other sides, I'd feel very nervous if I were a Chelsea fan, particularly if they don't get a win against Fulham.

I'd feel very confident if I were a Man City fan.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 14, 2025, 10:26:52 AM
Thanks, I just did a back of a fag packet and I had Citeh and Newcastle finishing on 69 with Chelsea Forest 65 63, which I think translates to us needing 12 points.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 14, 2025, 11:22:21 AM
Those FootballRanking guys have it as this:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Goe-DJSWwAAn180?format=jpg)

And looking at the run-ins above, while everyone involved has the ability to screw it up, it does feel a bit like Newcastle + Man City + one of us, Forest and Chelsea. If we beat Newcastle and Forest lose to Spurs though, I reckon we'd quickly become big favourites.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on April 14, 2025, 11:24:59 AM
I thought Palace were king-makers but it looks more like Everton are.

Expect Man City and Newcastle to get enough points.

Chelsea's fixtures look tough and they've not been in great form second half of the season.

We need Forest to continue to struggle, overcome the gap and out-point them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: itbrvilla on April 14, 2025, 11:28:31 AM
I thought Palace were king-makers but it looks more like Everton are.

Expect Man City and Newcastle to get enough points.

Chelsea's fixtures look tough and they've not been in great form second half of the season.

We need Forest to continue to struggle, overcome the gap and out-point them.
Forest looked uncatchable a fortnight ago. Not anymore!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 14, 2025, 11:30:49 AM
Forest  - Spurs A, Brentford H, Crystal Palace A, Leicester H, West Ham A, Chelsea H
Man City - Everton A, Villa H, Wolves H, Southampton A, Bournemouth H, Fulham A
Newcastle - Palace H, Villa A, Ipswich H, Brighton A, Chelsea H, Arsenal A, Everton H
Chelsea - Fulham A, Everton H, Liverpool H, Newcastle A, Man Utd H, Forest A

The games in bold are where I think they could drop points.

Newcastle and us are the form teams winning the last 4 games, they have to play Chelsea though and Arse away.

ManC have their two trickiest up next.

Forest have a relatively easy run I think, though them against Chelsea could be really interesting on the final day.

Chelsea are key to a lot, having to play Newcastle and Forest but also having Everton and Liverpool in their run in.

I'm not particularly enamoured with having to go to Old Trafford on the final day needing a result, though it would be extremely sweet getting a win there to clinch a Champions League spot and leaving them down near the foot.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SoccerHQ on April 14, 2025, 11:49:29 AM
Forest haven't kept a clean sheet away from home since Jan 6th. They've one once away in that period. We've won four times and four away games in that period.

So it would help us if they don't win any of Spurs, Palace or West Ham.

I think they'll look at Brentford, Leicester and Chelsea as final home games and think that will be enough to get them over the line but they are playing Brentford a few days after the cup SF so I think Brentford with the pace they have on the break could do a similar job to Everton at the weekend.

They'll be feeling the pressure now certainly and are limping to the line in similar manner to us last season. We only had to fend off Spurs 12 months ago.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 14, 2025, 11:52:56 AM
If anybody is feeling a sense of pity over Forest wobbling, I encourage you watch them play ‘football’.  That should address any such sentiment. 

If I were into gambling I’d be back Newcastle and the Villa. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on April 14, 2025, 11:59:55 AM
I think they'll look at Brentford, Leicester and Chelsea as final home games and think that will be enough to get them over the line but they are playing Brentford a few days after the cup SF so I think Brentford with the pace they have on the break could do a similar job to Everton at the weekend.

Brentford have been really good away from home since January.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 14, 2025, 12:02:28 PM
If I were into gambling I’d be back Newcastle and the Villa. 

Newcastle are 1/8 on to finish top 5, I'm not that sure about them. I'd say Villa offer better value at 16/5 to make the CL.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 14, 2025, 12:41:49 PM
Yeah, that seems crazy odds for Newcastle. Can't wait til we smash them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 14, 2025, 12:46:47 PM
A Tyrone Mings header to win on Saturday would be lovely.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 14, 2025, 12:48:10 PM
Forest  - Spurs A, Brentford H, Crystal Palace A, Leicester H, West Ham A, Chelsea H
Man City - Everton A, Villa H, Wolves H, Southampton A, Bournemouth H, Fulham A
Newcastle - Palace H, Villa A, Ipswich H, Brighton A, Chelsea H, Arsenal A, Everton H
Chelsea - Fulham A, Everton H, Liverpool H, Newcastle A, Man Utd H, Forest A

The games in bold are where I think they could drop points.

Aside from the games involving Soton, Leicester, Ipswich and Man U at home, I'd say there's a decent chance of dropped points in almost all of the remaining fixtures (including ours).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on April 14, 2025, 12:50:49 PM
Yeah, that seems crazy odds for Newcastle. Can't wait til we smash them.

Bet against them then.

Or, put another way, do you want to bet against us them?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SoccerHQ on April 14, 2025, 12:53:10 PM
If I were into gambling I’d be back Newcastle and the Villa. 

Newcastle are 1/8 on to finish top 5, I'm not that sure about them. I'd say Villa offer better value at 16/5 to make the CL.

I think that's just down to Newcastle having four home games left, everyone else has three.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 14, 2025, 12:58:04 PM
One thing I will say is that Man Utd were absolutely dreadful yesterday.  I think most teams in et league would've scored a few against them, so the Jaudies scoring 4 is not overly impressive.

It's a massive game next Saturday, for both clubs.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on April 14, 2025, 01:02:06 PM
If anybody is feeling a sense of pity over Forest wobbling, I encourage you watch them play ‘football’.  That should address any such sentiment. 

If I were into gambling I’d be back Newcastle and the Villa. 

Ryan Yates alone should address such sentiment.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 14, 2025, 01:11:00 PM
Yeah, that seems crazy odds for Newcastle. Can't wait til we smash them.

Bet against them then.

Or, put another way, do you want to bet against us them?

Yeah based on form and their position I think they’re nailed on.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 14, 2025, 01:12:16 PM
One thing I will say is that Man Utd were absolutely dreadful yesterday.  I think most teams in et league would've scored a few against them, so the Jaudies scoring 4 is not overly impressive.

It's a massive game next Saturday, for both clubs.

You bloody know they’ll turn up against us on the last game of the season though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 14, 2025, 01:15:16 PM
Forest have been going pressure free pretty much all season, now at the business end they have 4 clubs breathing down their necks and regardless of what they say, not making the CL would be a massive disappointment after the first 30 games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Holte L2 on April 14, 2025, 01:18:36 PM
I've had a go and get as follows:

3. Man City 70 points
4. Newcastle 67points
5. Villa 66 points
6. Chelsea 64 points
7. Forest 63 points
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 14, 2025, 01:24:30 PM
One thing I will say is that Man Utd were absolutely dreadful yesterday.  I think most teams in et league would've scored a few against them, so the Jaudies scoring 4 is not overly impressive.

It's a massive game next Saturday, for both clubs.

They were partly dreadful because Newcastle gave them no outlets. We sometimes don't press enough in the final third.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on April 14, 2025, 01:38:06 PM
One thing I will say is that Man Utd were absolutely dreadful yesterday.  I think most teams in et league would've scored a few against them, so the Jaudies scoring 4 is not overly impressive.

It's a massive game next Saturday, for both clubs.

They were partly dreadful because Newcastle gave them no outlets. We sometimes don't press enough in the final third.

We need to go back to that game season before last when they tried to press us and we just chipped it over them to McGinn instead and murdered them.

It's mad that they've given us some drubbings yet that game was the most one-sided of the lot.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 14, 2025, 01:48:25 PM
Yep we owe them and we really need to win that game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 14, 2025, 01:53:22 PM
Yeah, that seems crazy odds for Newcastle. Can't wait til we smash them.

Bet against them then.

Or, put another way, do you want to bet against us them?

Yeah based on form and their position I think they’re nailed on.

So you don't think we'll beat them?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 14, 2025, 01:56:12 PM
I don’t know if we’ll beat them, hopefully we will. But either way I think they’ll finish between 3rd-5th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on April 14, 2025, 02:41:17 PM
Looking at the fixtures I wouldn't say anyone has a easy or difficult run-in, they're all pretty even so it's more about form than opposition which, right now, leans to us, Newcastle and Man City being the 3 most likely. Us playing both of them as our next 2 feel huge. If w come away with 3, 4 or 6 points then I reckon we'll be in the driving seat.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 14, 2025, 02:45:21 PM
No one would have expected Leicester, Ipswich and Everton to get the away results they did at the weekend. 5 teams separated by 3 points chasing CL at this stage is pretty unusual.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: London Villan on April 14, 2025, 04:41:07 PM
We know from last season how teams can implode (Spurs) or stutter to get results (us)... makes for an exciting end to the season. It would be game-changing for us to get top 5 and into the CL again.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 14, 2025, 06:35:28 PM
Would it?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 14, 2025, 07:13:48 PM
Depends what you mean by game changing. But from a monetary and profile point of view getting Champions League again will create opportunities for us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 14, 2025, 07:25:10 PM
Depends what you mean by game changing. But from a monetary and profile point of view getting Champions League again will create opportunities for us.
It would be huge.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 14, 2025, 07:25:32 PM
I think it would be the first time a "new" qualifier has done it in consecutive years. Even when Spurs first did it, it took them a couple of years to regroup and do it for a second time.  So I suppose in a certain way it would be something a team hadn't really done before.

Can't imagine it'll be something we're singing songs about in twenty years time or anything though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on April 14, 2025, 07:29:01 PM
Look at the money we earned this season. Look at the players we signed. Of course it's huge.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: London Villan on April 14, 2025, 07:32:04 PM
From the club’s profile, the players we’ll keep, the players we’ll attract and of course the money… two years of £400m turnover takes us to another level.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: saunders_heroes on April 14, 2025, 07:48:35 PM
Has any team other than the usual mob got CL football 2 seasons on the bounce before?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on April 14, 2025, 07:49:10 PM
Every new commercial deal is bumped by a huge amount as well, 3-4 years in a row with someone like Heck doing everything to take advantage and we're in the big 7.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on April 14, 2025, 07:51:43 PM
Failure to requalify would be significant, it's why UE always says the EPL games are the most important .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DB on April 14, 2025, 08:08:24 PM
The poster who puts a negative view on his posts...the winner is...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Grande Pablo on April 14, 2025, 08:23:15 PM
I can't see Palace getting anything at Newcastle this week which will give them some daylight come Saturday.  That, with Howe still being absent could hopefully work to our advantage.  With City looking better, we need Forest & Chelsea to continue to faulter & keep up our end of the bargain.  Every game from now on is simply huge.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 14, 2025, 09:57:37 PM
I said Chelsea would challenge for the title and they hit the skids. I said we're not catching Forest now and they are wobbling.

So I'd just like to say that Citeh and Newcastle are both looking good and will surely qualify for the CL.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on April 14, 2025, 10:21:13 PM
I'm sure that this has been already asked and answered, but might it be possible for us to win a place in the Europa League by virtue of finishing 7th in the League?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave P on April 14, 2025, 10:29:56 PM
I'm sure that this has been already asked and answered, but might it be possible for us to win a place in the Europa League by virtue of finishing 7th in the League?

Yes provided Palace don’t win the cup
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 14, 2025, 10:37:34 PM
That's good. Considering the gap to eighth now, you'd like to think if we win the semi-final it's Europa minimum.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eye digress on April 14, 2025, 10:52:10 PM
All a question of momentum now, which makes Saturday's game intriguing - whose will win out? Is it shaping up to be a draw?

A defeat wouldn't be fatal to the Jaudis though, and I'd expect them to have enough in the tank to finish top 5 regardless.

To my eyes, Citeh's run-in looks a grade easier than the others which, if you factor in their upturn in form, should see home.

There's a whiff of doubt emanating from Forest, even from their manager. As others have said, they remind me of us last year, to a degree, but even more so Leicester 2020 (when it all went awry in the last clutch of games). I think they've finally hit a wall.

Chelsea are in poor form and are mutinous, the fans having fallen out with the coach. It's momentum of sorts, just not the sort you'd want. I don't see the belief in them.

As for us, we simply had to have a purple patch at some point in the season. I actually think our run-in is really hard. But does that really matter when you have the bit between your teeth and the kind of squad depth we do?

Even a kicking from PSG doesn't look like it would dampen our spirits, with the cup.semi on the horizon.

UTV!



Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 15, 2025, 08:48:43 AM
2. Arsenal 77
3. Man City 71
4. Chelsea 70
5. Newcastle 69
6. Forest 66
7. Villa 62
8. Brighton 61
9. Fulham 56
10. Bournemouth 54
11. Palace 53

Champions League if we win Champions League. Europa League if we don't, unless Palace win FA Cup in which case it's Conference League. IMO.

(Yes, another busy morning at work).

Updated after the weekend's results. We are still seventh but a little closer to Chelsea and Forest, and little further away from Brighton. I've also added Brentford as I noticed I missed them off last time.

2. Arsenal 75
3. Man City 71
4. Newcastle 69
5. Chelsea 68
6. Forest 63
7. Villa 62
8. Brighton 59
9. Fulham 56
10. Brentford 55
11. Bournemouth 54
12. Palace 53
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on April 15, 2025, 09:07:38 AM
Howe is still in hospital for the Villa game so that wanker Tindall will be leading them for it. A nice little advantage for us and a good chance to give that sunbed loving manequin faced twat a good going over by the crowd.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 15, 2025, 09:34:55 AM
Howe is still in hospital for the Villa game so that wanker Tindall will be leading them for it. A nice little advantage for us and a good chance to give that sunbed loving manequin faced twat a good going over by the crowd.

Nicely put.  It's a possible advantage, so long as he doesn't get into our heads, which he very clearly will try to do.  The massive twat.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on April 15, 2025, 10:02:04 AM
Not being funny, but is there something that Tindall has done to the Villa, or has said, that makes some of us dislike him so?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithe on April 15, 2025, 10:08:10 AM
Not being funny, but is there something that Tindall has done to the Villa, or has said, that makes some of us dislike him so?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-14383853/Official-report-reveals-details-20-man-brawl-including-Aston-Villas-moans-Newcastle-assistant-Jason-Tindall-wearing-Wham-hoodie.html
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 15, 2025, 12:11:08 PM
I'd forgotten about this. I thought people were getting angry because someone had tried to translate the Bible into English.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on April 15, 2025, 12:24:06 PM
Not being funny, but is there something that Tindall has done to the Villa, or has said, that makes some of us dislike him so?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-14383853/Official-report-reveals-details-20-man-brawl-including-Aston-Villas-moans-Newcastle-assistant-Jason-Tindall-wearing-Wham-hoodie.html

Even without that he's always been a massive twat.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Hookeysmith on April 15, 2025, 01:53:23 PM
And as decent as the actual team playing are they are also very much nasty niggly wankers that try to get in your face and continually tag team foul to break up play.

We really need to stand up to the likes of Joelinton, Burn and Bruno who really like to bully teams.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 15, 2025, 02:03:24 PM
We really need to stand up to the likes of Joelinton, Burn and Bruno who really like to bully teams.

Definitely feels like an Onana, McGinn and Mings type game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 15, 2025, 10:46:26 PM
It is imperative we make top 5. We have to be on that stage.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Hillbilly on April 15, 2025, 10:58:47 PM
We did a lot of heavy lifting to get the premier League that fifth spot. It would be a shame to miss out to a shower of shite like Chelsea.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on April 15, 2025, 11:00:44 PM
It is imperative we make top 5. We have to be on that stage.

We will  8)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tony Daleys Shorts on April 15, 2025, 11:17:20 PM
More confident than ever we will after tonight, we’re a fucking seriously good team with an elite coach.

Chelsea will crumble cus they’re pathetic.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on April 15, 2025, 11:21:59 PM
It is imperative we make top 5. We have to be on that stage.

Yep.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on April 15, 2025, 11:35:10 PM
8 more performances like tonight and we will cruise into the CL for next season and have a lovely cup to show off.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on April 16, 2025, 12:39:22 AM
 I've just been having s look at our remaining fixtures and wasn't aware that the Premier League have re-scheduled the Manchester City game to April 22nd - just 3 days after the Newcastle game and less than 4 days before our semi-final.   That's an absolutely ridiculous decision. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 16, 2025, 12:49:09 AM
Not really, given that, at the time it was announced, we didn't know how many free midweeks we would have. They couldn't have scheduled it to a Champions League midweek, just in case.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on April 16, 2025, 12:52:55 AM
Not really, given that, at the time it was announced, we didn't know how many free midweeks we would have. They couldn't have scheduled it to a Champions League midweek, just in case.

There are two weeks after the CL semi-finals where it could have been fitted in aren't there?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 16, 2025, 01:01:12 AM
Not if we make the FA Cup Final, no. It's probably best to play it as soon as possible just in case of bad weather, freak incident, royal death or whatever and potentially cause a massive backlog later on.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on April 16, 2025, 10:22:27 AM
Not if we make the FA Cup Final, no. It's probably best to play it as soon as possible just in case of bad weather, freak incident, royal death or whatever and potentially cause a massive backlog later on.

Now means we've got to play three potentially season defining games in the space of a week though. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 16, 2025, 10:23:23 AM
Which would have been the case whenever the game was played, if we had made it through to the Champions League semi-final.

There just aren't very many free dates any more.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tony Daleys Shorts on April 16, 2025, 10:28:58 AM
Obviously gutted we went out last night, but not having to play two arduous semifinal’s probably increases our chances of picking up the points required to qualify for next years tournament. And win The FA Cup.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 16, 2025, 10:31:30 AM
An extra day's recovery than Newcastle for Saturday and Palace for the semi final. Man City have 2.5 hours more recovery than us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 16, 2025, 10:32:03 AM
I'd imagine Palace will rest everyone in that midweek game before the semi-final.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DB on April 16, 2025, 10:36:40 AM
Chelsea are poor, they have really dropped off this last 3rd of the season.
Forrest hopefully are choking too.
Newcastle are looking good.
If we can play like last night, then we can get 5th, just hope they can go again with that same intensity on Sat and next week.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 16, 2025, 10:37:19 AM
Does anyone ever change all 11 players? Agreed it will be a  much weakened team but we chucked Man Citeh away last season so maybe we'll do the same.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 16, 2025, 10:55:35 AM
Last season we had several key players injured and the rest were running on fumes. I suspect Emery had realised that we just couldn’t get anything and took the risk. Totally different scenario for both us AND Citeh this season. They have shown they are beatable there .  AND we have all our players bar one to put out there.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 16, 2025, 10:57:53 AM
I was being slightly tongue in cheek but I think we will see a quite different lineup for that match compared to Newcastle and semi final
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: usav on April 16, 2025, 12:46:56 PM
I was being slightly tongue in cheek but I think we will see a quite different lineup for that match compared to Newcastle and semi final

There will be heavy rotation in the next 2 games - there has to be.

Appalling schedule for us, really unlucky.  We could be out of two competitions and off the pace for a CL spot.  Meanwhile, the French and other countries move games to help their teams.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 16, 2025, 12:50:31 PM
As cd has alluded to though, where in the calendar would those postponed matches be moved to?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: London Villan on April 16, 2025, 01:16:02 PM
We have underused quality players in the squad this time round though, Watkins, Malen, Garcia, Barkley, Ramsey, Onana all with limited match time since Christmas.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 16, 2025, 02:20:57 PM
Not if we make the FA Cup Final, no. It's probably best to play it as soon as possible just in case of bad weather, freak incident, royal death or whatever and potentially cause a massive backlog later on.

Thankfully HRH didn't have a heart-attack last night.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 16, 2025, 03:07:41 PM
We've moved the bar up again and I think we have to now, or we're going to lose momentum. After last night there will be quality players around Europe thinking that is a good place to play my football.

Somehow need to keep moving forward.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 16, 2025, 04:00:26 PM
Not if we make the FA Cup Final, no. It's probably best to play it as soon as possible just in case of bad weather, freak incident, royal death or whatever and potentially cause a massive backlog later on.

Thankfully HRH didn't have a heart-attack last night.

That daft Wolves twat off Twitter?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 16, 2025, 04:17:32 PM
Not if we make the FA Cup Final, no. It's probably best to play it as soon as possible just in case of bad weather, freak incident, royal death or whatever and potentially cause a massive backlog later on.

Thankfully HRH didn't have a heart-attack last night.

That daft Wolves twat off Twitter?

Err, royal death,,,
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 16, 2025, 04:23:08 PM
Nah, he's Wolves, not Reading. I'm pretty sure.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: garyellis on April 16, 2025, 09:50:21 PM
Fairly clear now we need to be above Forest and Chelsea for top 5.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 16, 2025, 10:50:19 PM
Fairly clear now we need to be above Forest and Chelsea for top 5.

I don't think we can look at it that way. We need to beat Newcastle, get within 2 points of them, and hope they come a cropper in their 4 games after Ipswich.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on April 16, 2025, 10:56:32 PM
We don't need to finish above Newcastle, we need to finish in the top five.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 16, 2025, 11:03:07 PM
We don't need to finish above Newcastle, we need to finish in the top five.

The problem is that if we don't, we'll need to finish above Forest or Citeh. If Spurs don't do us a favour next Monday, then Forest's run-in looks pretty decent with some winnable games. That would just leave Citeh then.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on April 17, 2025, 12:12:29 AM
We don't need to finish above Newcastle, we need to finish in the top five.

The problem is that if we don't, we'll need to finish above Forest or Citeh. If Spurs don't do us a favour next Monday, then Forest's run-in looks pretty decent with some winnable games. That would just leave Citeh then.

Just give them a points deduction FFS!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on April 17, 2025, 12:42:02 AM
Forest are in freefall and I think they will shit themselves.

Chelsea are just not that good and toxicity is creeping in again for them.

It is for these reasons I believe we will now actually finish top 5. Which would be an even better achievement than last season by quite a way, imo.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: garyellis on April 17, 2025, 09:23:31 AM
Forest are in freefall and I think they will shit themselves.

Chelsea are just not that good and toxicity is creeping in again for them.

It is for these reasons I believe we will now actually finish top 5. Which would be an even better achievement than last season by quite a way, imo.
My original point was they are the two clubs struggling for form. Newcastle are like us flying and City still have a lot of quality. We just need to keep going and hope it’s enough.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 17, 2025, 09:33:36 AM
Yes. We'll finish above Forest and Chelsea. Whether we finish above Man City depends on Tuesday to a large extent, but that will be largely irrelevant to the original question.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 17, 2025, 09:34:44 AM
F365's dive into the data...

Quote
With the Premier League securing a fifth Champions League spot for 2025/26 it means Forest (57 points), Newcastle (56), Manchester City (55), Chelsea (54) and Villa (54) will fight to join Liverpool and Arsenal in next season’s competition, with the two who miss out likely having to settle for Europa or Conference League fare.

But who should be expecting to win the race? Which side has form in their favour, or a kinder run-in? Who has already automatically added three points to their final total because they have still got to face Southampton? Let’s drill into the numbers to make a definitive prediction, even if we sadly cannot afford a supercomputer.

The remaining fixtures
Nottingham Forest – Spurs a (21st), Brentford h (May 1st), Palace a (5th), Leicester h (11th), West Ham a (18th), Chelsea h (25th)

Newcastle – Crystal Palace h (16th), Aston Villa a (19th), Ipswich h (26th), Brighton a (May 4th), Chelsea h (10th), Arsenal a (18th), Everton h (25th)

Manchester City – Everton a (19th), Aston Villa h (22nd), Wolves h (May 2nd), Southampton a (10th), Bournemouth h (18th), Fulham a (25th)

Chelsea – Fulham a (20th), Everton h (26th), Liverpool h (May 4th), Newcastle a (10th), Manchester United h (18th), Nottingham Forest a (25th)

Aston Villa – Newcastle h (19th), Manchester City a (22nd), Fulham h (3rd), Bournemouth a (10th), Spurs h (18th), Man Utd a (25th)

Other possible fixtures
Nottingham Forest and Manchester City face each other in an FA Cup semi-final on April 27. The winner will contest the FA Cup final on May 17.

Aston Villa play Crystal Palace in an FA Cup semi-final on April 26.

Chelsea play Legia Warszawa on April 17, with possible Europa Conference League semi-final games on May 1 and 8 and the final on May 28.

Which Champions League contender has the kindest run-in?
Based on the average current position of every team’s remaining opponents, some will be far happier with their schedule than others:

1) Nottingham Forest – 13.33
2) Manchester City – 12.17
3) Newcastle – 9.71
4) Aston Villa – 9.17
5) Chelsea – 7.33

It is not difficult to see why many Chelsea supporters felt their hopes realistically ended with the draws against Brentford and Ipswich, even if Enzo Maresca knows the fanbase should be blamed for both.

The Blues face three of the top four, as well as a trip to Fulham and games against Manchester United and Everton.

Chelsea are the only top-half team left on the Forest calendar, while Newcastle and Aston Villa have fairly tough assignments remaining, including a couple of games each against fellow Champions League qualification contenders.

Which Champions League contender has done best against their remaining opponents?
Far more instructive might be to consider how the Champions League contenders did in the corresponding fixtures against their remaining opponents. This is a table based on those results so far this season:

1) Nottingham Forest v Spurs, Brentford, Crystal Palace, Leicester, West Ham and Chelsea – P6 W5 D1 L0 F11 A2 Pts 16 PPG 2.66
2) Manchester City v Everton, Aston Villa, Wolves, Southampton, Bournemouth and Fulham – P6 W3 D1 L2 F9 A8 Pts 10 PPG 1.66
3) Newcastle v Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Ipswich, Brighton, Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton – P7 W3 D2 L2 F10 A4 Pts 11 PPG 1.57
4) Aston Villa v Newcastle, Manchester City, Fulham, Bournemouth, Spurs and Man Utd – P6 W2 D2 L2 F7 A10 Pts 8 PPG 1.33
5) Chelsea v Fulham, Everton, Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest – P6 W1 D3 L2 F6 A7 Pts 6 PPG 1

Forest’s record in those games would see them through comfortably; the only points they have dropped this campaign against their final opponents were in a draw with Chelsea in October.

The Blues’ hopes are again crushed by another metric, with their only win against the six teams they have left to play coming at home to a very different Newcastle side in October.

The Magpies, Manchester City and Villa all have relatively similar numbers.

Which Champions League contender is in the best form?
But neither Newcastle nor Villa will approach those run-ins with trepidation as their form is among the best in the entire Premier League, never mind this particular race.

Forest might be fearing the worst after suffering back-to-back defeats but neither Manchester City nor Chelsea have shown the level of consistency needed to actually punish any slips.

Which Champions League contender could maximise six-pointers?
There are four games left between the five Champions League contenders: Aston Villa v Newcastle on April 19; Manchester City v Aston Villa on April 22; Newcastle v Chelsea on May 19; and Nottingham Forest v Chelsea on May 25.

A mini table of Premier League results between those sides suggests two teams might be less equipped to make the most of those meetings than the other three:

1) Manchester City – P7 W4 D1 L2 F14 A5 Pts 13 PPG 1.86
2) Newcastle – P6 W3 D1 L2 F12 A11 Pts 10 PPG 1.67
3) Aston Villa – P6 W3 D0 L3 F7 A11 Pts 9 PPG 1.5
4) Chelsea – P6 W2 D1 L3 F8 A9 Pts 7 PPG 1.17
5) Nottingham Forest – P7 W2 D1 L4 F9 A14 Pts 7 PPG 1

Chelsea really might be out of it.

Which Champions League contenders still have to face any of the bottom three?
There are no easy games in the Premier League but also Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton are quite considerably worse than everyone else so any fixture list which still contains them can only be considered an advantage.

In games against Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, Manchester City, Chelsea and Aston Villa, the bottom three have a combined record of P27 W1 D3 L23 F18 A67. Ipswich account for all those non-defeats, drawing twice with Villa while holding and beating Chelsea.

So Newcastle will not make the mistake of believing three points to be guaranteed against the Tractor Boys, but they will be overwhelming favourites at St James’ Park on April 26.

The same can be said for Manchester City at relegated Southampton on May 10 and Nottingham Forest against Leicester a day later.

Who will qualify for the Champions League?
The outlook is not great for Chelsea. Already with ground to make up on the rest bar Aston Villa, the Blues have the toughest run-in, did worst in the corresponding fixtures against their remaining opponents, are the second-worst contender on form and do not face any of the bottom three – although their struggles against Ipswich indicate that might not have mattered anyway.

They will also likely have the most games to contend with in other competitions due to their progress in the Conference League.

Manchester City should finish in the top five. Their game against Southampton is a distinct advantage and their remaining fixtures are relatively kind.

It is difficult to look past Newcastle’s form, game in hand and current position, one point behind Forest with a better goal difference and a game against Ipswich to come.

Which leaves a straight shootout between former European champions Forest and Villa. The latter are also in excellent domestic form but the former have the best schedule on paper by far, a match with Leicester to come, and that points lead over everyone else.

It could well come down to Villa’s inferior goal difference of +3, which is at least ten goals worse than any other contender. Perhaps Forest v Chelsea on the final day will be something of a decider and Callum Hudson-Odoi can unleash the most muted celebration ever seen after his 90th-minute winner.

Nottingham Forest, Newcastle and Manchester City are your Champions League qualification race winners.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 17, 2025, 09:45:38 AM
I think it’s difficult for us unless we have an incredible finish - say 5 wins from 6 - or Forest fall off a cliff and we still have a good run. Both possible, but tough.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 17, 2025, 09:47:36 AM
I think that analysis is just a guess. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on April 17, 2025, 10:40:12 AM
I think that analysis is just a guess. 

It's not a guess but it does ignore current form, which is where Forest in particular fall down.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Jockey Randall on April 17, 2025, 10:59:45 AM
I think Newcastle have booked their place with their last two results. They have a nearly fully fit squad, look full of energy which is crucial for their physical style and have serious momentum. As previously mentioned whether we finish above City is probably down to that game at their place, if they avoid defeat they should have enough to get over the line with their fixtures being decent. It feels like Chelsea's recent slip ups and overall form have made it difficult to see them making it back into the top 5.

I would say we need 3 wins and a draw minimum out of our last six:
Newcastle (H)
Man City (A)
Fulham (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Spurs (H)
Man U (A)

If we get that and get to 64 the question then becomes is do Forest have enough left in the tank to pick up 2 wins and a draw out of:
Spurs (A)
Brentford (H)
Palace (A)
Leicester (H)
West Ham (A)
Chelsea (H)

Every point is crucial now, I'm hoping they look back on not defending well against the counter in the last minute v Everton as a serious mistake.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on April 17, 2025, 11:07:34 AM
I think that analysis is just a guess. 

It's not a guess but it does ignore current form, which is where Forest in particular fall down.

Any consideration of earlier season results regarding us is misplaced as our squad is outrageously stronger than it was then.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 17, 2025, 11:08:52 AM
I think that analysis is just a guess. 

It's not a guess but it does ignore current form, which is where Forest in particular fall down.

They mention current form of us and Newcastle, but it is a one liner compared to the others with tables showing. They are right though that our GD might well be our downfall so we probably HAVE to win all our games, or at least win five including the city one and hope they drop a further 2 points.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 17, 2025, 11:09:14 AM
Forest had a poor result against Everton, but could easily have got a point in their loss to us. Prior to that, they had won their previous 3 league games. Monday night's game against Spurs will give us a better indication whether their form is in freefall. Either way, if they win just 3 of their last 6 games, we'll likely need to get to 67 points to be above them.

ATM I think our best bet is hoping Citeh drop points away to Everton (while we get a result against Newcastle) and then beat them next week.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 17, 2025, 11:17:43 AM
Another problem with using previous results is that it ignores squeaky bum time pressure.  I back us and Newcastle
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on April 17, 2025, 12:17:57 PM
A lot of that analysis ignores that you get some odd results at this time of the season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 17, 2025, 12:43:05 PM
Another problem with using previous results is that it ignores squeaky bum time pressure.  I back us and Newcastle

With Newcastle pushing over Palace, I think they are the shoo-in for third, even if they lose to us.

Something else to take into consideration is if we get to the final and Spurs are still in Europa, we will have to play them midweek before the final. If they are out we can play them midweek after. I'm sure our potential opponents will definitely move their league matches until after the final but that adds some randomness to the league placings as well.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tony Daleys Shorts on April 17, 2025, 12:51:48 PM
Do we have to hope Spurs and Man U get to the final of the Europa, so they’re both distracted when we play them?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 17, 2025, 12:58:29 PM
Do we have to hope Spurs and Man U get to the final of the Europa, so they’re both distracted when we play them?

As I hinted at, if Spurs are still in it AND we are in the final, we have to play Spurs mid-week before the final. So whilst it will probably mean Maate is still in charge, it also means we have a distracting match before the final, where either of our opponents might leave theirs until afterwards.

Man U would have already played the final so no real distraction, although if they win it they might not have stopped celebrating.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 17, 2025, 01:01:24 PM
I suspect we'd be playing the midweek before unless Tottenham get knocked out tonight, if we make the cup final. They won't want to choose a date then change it again if they make the final.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 17, 2025, 01:07:44 PM
I agree. I think there is a minimum notice period for matches brought forward.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ger Regan on April 17, 2025, 01:26:05 PM
I still think it's a bridge too far for us. Hoping I'm wrong, but just feels like a season of almosts.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on April 17, 2025, 01:26:30 PM
I think it’s between us, notts forest and Chelsea
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on April 17, 2025, 01:28:54 PM
I think it’s too much though - I’m hoping for 6th and an FA cup win
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dick Edwards on April 17, 2025, 02:04:07 PM
I think it’s too much though - I’m hoping for 6th and an FA cup win
I’d be delighted with that personally. Unfortunately, finishing 5th and not winning the FA Cup would be far more financially rewarding to the club.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: brontebilly on April 17, 2025, 02:23:11 PM
Another problem with using previous results is that it ignores squeaky bum time pressure.  I back us and Newcastle

From memory Leicester under Rodgers bottled two similar situations to what Forest are in now. A lot of pressure on them to perform v Spurs. Spurs have nothing to play for under a manager surely gone in the summer. They need to score first.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 17, 2025, 02:29:12 PM
Yeah, Spurs pulling their one-in-ten great performance out on Monday after we've drawn level on points with Forest two days earlier would be just the ticket.

Reckon they'd assume they'd blown it in those circumstances.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on April 17, 2025, 02:34:00 PM
It's certainly a case of finishing above Chelsea and Forest, but win both the next two and that changes.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 17, 2025, 03:15:15 PM
I think it’s too much though - I’m hoping for 6th and an FA cup win

Surely you’re hoping for 5th and FA Cup.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 19, 2025, 07:34:04 PM
Come on Fulham, Ipswich and Spurs!!!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on April 19, 2025, 07:37:50 PM
Hell yes. 3rd is on, never mind 5th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on April 19, 2025, 07:40:17 PM
Hell yes. 3rd is on, never mind 5th.

Could get 2nd.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DB on April 19, 2025, 07:48:38 PM
We have beaten 3 rivals in last few weeks for the top 5. We are playing superb.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 19, 2025, 07:53:24 PM
Today was absolutely essential. If we could follow up with a positive result Tuesday…
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 19, 2025, 07:58:10 PM
The Football Rankings lads now give us a 39% chance.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Go61XGgWkAAVCZK?format=png&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: maidstonevillain on April 19, 2025, 08:11:33 PM
Very lazy analysis.

Newcastle and Chelsea have to play each other.
Chelsea and Forest have to play each other.
Forest and Chelsea are out of form.
I would put us at 60%. And I'm a natural Villa pessimist.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: astonvilla82 on April 19, 2025, 08:15:47 PM
Come on Fulham, Ipswich and Spurs!!!
Fulham got a possibility of a European spot?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 19, 2025, 08:16:19 PM
Very lazy analysis.
I would put us at 60%. And I'm a natural Villa pessimist.

Better?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Go6yUwFW4AATSpg?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 19, 2025, 08:31:32 PM
The Football Rankings lads now give us a 39% chance.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Go61XGgWkAAVCZK?format=png&name=900x900)

Beat City and that's breaking 50% for the first time since September.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 19, 2025, 08:36:09 PM
In an ideal world today makes Newcastle retreat into their tiny-dicked shells, they lose every game for the rest of the season and finish ninth.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 19, 2025, 08:47:29 PM
Yeah, Spurs pulling their one-in-ten great performance out on Monday after we've drawn level on points with Forest two days earlier would be just the ticket.

Reckon they'd assume they'd blown it in those circumstances.

Bradley Johnson grabbing the winner and cupping his ear with a shit-eating grin to his old fans, will do.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 19, 2025, 08:53:46 PM
Wonder what the remaining fixtures average league placing thing looks like now? Once we've played City ours will be through the floor.

We manage to win Tuesday and we're well into favourite territory.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 19, 2025, 09:02:08 PM
Wonder what the remaining fixtures average league placing thing looks like now? Once we've played City ours will be through the floor.

Dave posted them a couple of days ago (from F365).

Which Champions League contender has the kindest run-in?
Based on the average current position of every team’s remaining opponents, some will be far happier with their schedule than others:

1) Nottingham Forest – 13.33
2) Manchester City – 12.17
3) Newcastle – 9.71
4) Aston Villa – 9.17
5) Chelsea – 7.33
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 19, 2025, 09:04:36 PM
Thanks BV.  It's 10 now. After City it'll be 11.5.

Win on Tuesday and we'll do it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on April 19, 2025, 09:09:02 PM
After Palace game I thought we needed 24 from final 10 games, and thought it unlikely. We have had 4 really good wins since (+Saints).

We probably in fact need 25 (67 in total due to GD).

So 10 from the last 5 in my opinion will be enough.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 19, 2025, 10:33:40 PM
Fulham / Chelsea tomorrow is a 6 pointer for those teams. Be interesting how that one falls.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 20, 2025, 06:55:47 AM
Come on the London Whites!

I do fear a bit for Tuesday but even if it doesn't go our way we've still got plenty of opportunities to pick up the points we need.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on April 20, 2025, 07:01:43 AM
If Spurs beat Forest, we just need to out-point them for the remaining games, assuming Chelsea don't suddenly hit form in tough fixtures.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on April 20, 2025, 10:23:20 AM
This time last year, almost to the day, we won our last league game of the season, coming from behind to beat Bournemouth 3-1 at home, before limping across the line in 4th with 2 points from a our last 4 games, qualifying mainly thanks to Spurs being equally dire at the end of the season.

Last year we had no options, its was the same team almost week in week out, no rotation without weakening the side. We looked tired. This year feels so different.  We look strong, and hungry.  Players are itching to take their chance when it arrives.

Just compare the benches to that Bournemouth game this time last year, and ours yesterday.

Vs Bournemouth 21st April 2024

Olsen
Diego Carlos
Chambers
Lenglet
Kesler-Hayden
Munroe
Iroegbunam
Kellyman
Duran

Vs Newcastle yesterday

Olsen
Barkley
Digne
Disasi
Garcia
Malen
Onana
Ramsey
Rashford

The difference is night and day.  We should be able to put in a solid performance in every game from now until the end of the season, regardless of how much we rotate.   An exciting few weeks ahead!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 20, 2025, 10:33:50 AM
Incredible how it's almost the reverse of last season. We've looked laboured and bitty for much of this season but are now absolute powerhouses capable of destroying anything in our path.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 20, 2025, 10:51:39 AM
Second in the league since end of January.

Newcastle 4th, Man City 5th, Chelsea 11th and Forest 13th. Keep going, boys. Nearly turned it 😎🫡
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eye digress on April 20, 2025, 10:54:27 AM
Incredible how it's almost the reverse of last season. We've looked laboured and bitty for much of this season but are now absolute powerhouses capable of destroying anything in our path.
All about momentum. We started last season strong after a blinding finish the season before, and then ran out of players (and steam).

This season, we started actually stronger than I imagined, on the back of a weak end to the season before, but then faded at the CL took its toll, despite a broadly stronger squad.

The unknown this season, at least until now, was whether we would be able to kick on as the season drew to a close. Our transfer business in January saw to that.

Nothing yet achieved however, we still need to learn to be champions. So I will refrain from doffing my cap to the management just yet...



Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on April 20, 2025, 11:07:27 AM
I think it's worth mapping our results to the number of injuries we have.

With a full squad to pick from we're excellent but for most of 2024 we had 5-6 players out every game and until recently we didn't have enough quality in depth to deal with that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DB on April 20, 2025, 11:19:35 AM
We are doing what we need to. But just as you celebrate a fantastic win, another key match is a few days away...and then another...
Bring it on.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 20, 2025, 11:56:04 AM
A Chelsea forum I was perusing, their version of this thread has been renamed from top four, to top five, to top seven, and is now called the The Race For Top Ten.

Safe to say they don't think they're in the running anymore.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tony Daleys Shorts on April 20, 2025, 12:08:54 PM
We could finish 2nd the way we’re going.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on April 20, 2025, 12:10:21 PM
We could finish 2nd the way we’re going.

I thought that earlier although it's a shame Arsenal have Ipswich today.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 20, 2025, 12:13:39 PM
Incredible how it's almost the reverse of last season. We've looked laboured and bitty for much of this season but are now absolute powerhouses capable of destroying anything in our path.

I believed back at the start of the season and even more now that Emery didn't want us so tired at the business end as what happened in 2023/24. So we pretty much did just enough in a lot of matches. We had some blips when injuries came in but it is definitely paying off now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 20, 2025, 12:33:17 PM
We could finish 2nd the way we’re going.

I thought that earlier although it's a shame Arsenal have Ipswich today.

Fifth (and the FA Cup) will do just fine.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 20, 2025, 12:52:22 PM
We could finish 2nd the way we’re going.

I thought that earlier although it's a shame Arsenal have Ipswich today.

Fifth (and the FA Cup) will do just fine.

Indeed.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: colin69 on April 20, 2025, 01:26:27 PM
We certainly look like we have hit form at exactly the right time. I think we’re gonna do it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Hookeysmith on April 20, 2025, 01:31:09 PM
 This team needs to win a trophy to mark its place in time.
Champions League is brilliant for the atmosphere and the financial health of the club but a trophy stamps in history how good this team has been.
Next season is really think we could challenge for the title.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 20, 2025, 01:34:22 PM
It needs both really.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 20, 2025, 03:59:07 PM
If we beat Palace in the cup semi-final do we know which midweek our game at home to Spurs will be?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on April 20, 2025, 03:59:33 PM
If we beat Palace in the cup semi-final do we know which midweek our game at home to Spurs will be?

Depends if they get to the Europa League final.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on April 20, 2025, 03:59:54 PM
If we beat Palace in the cup semi-final do we know which midweek our game at home to Spurs will be?

Depends on them in Europe too I assume?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on April 20, 2025, 04:00:56 PM
We need to keep doing what we are doing and we will get CL. Nobody has our form across Europe.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 20, 2025, 04:14:10 PM
Win all our games and let the others fight over the scraps.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 20, 2025, 04:23:05 PM
We need to keep doing what we are doing and we will get CL. Nobody has our form across Europe.

Apart from Barca who jammed a 98th minute penalty winner yesterday against the gods from Vigo.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on April 20, 2025, 04:31:06 PM
Incredible how it's almost the reverse of last season. We've looked laboured and bitty for much of this season but are now absolute powerhouses capable of destroying anything in our path.

I suspected it would be like this, and said so at the start of the season. I thought we’d be out of the CL earlier and then go on a 22/23 style run-in. We’ve done it (so far) while getting to the CL quarter-final, which is an excellent effort.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 20, 2025, 05:21:22 PM
We need to keep doing what we are doing and we will get CL. Nobody has our form across Europe.

Apart from Barca who jammed a 98th minute penalty winner yesterday against the gods from Vigo.

FC Noah in Armenia have won their last thirteen.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 20, 2025, 06:08:06 PM
Go Noah!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 20, 2025, 06:38:48 PM
Ark at Dave.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on April 20, 2025, 06:47:38 PM
There's gonna be a flood of posts now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 20, 2025, 06:50:10 PM
I heard their opponents didn't turn up for one match but in the last three, the goals scored by them shows 2, bye, 2.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on April 20, 2025, 07:19:42 PM
We need to keep doing what we are doing and we will get CL. Nobody has our form across Europe.

Apart from Barca who jammed a 98th minute penalty winner yesterday against the gods from Vigo.

FC Noah in Armenia have won their last thirteen.

That’s a nice and all, but could any of their players do it on a cold night in Yerevan?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 20, 2025, 09:39:28 PM
So far none of the results have gone for us this weekend, let’s hope that Spurs can add to the Forest tremble.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: walsall villain on April 20, 2025, 09:43:35 PM
So far none of the results have gone for us this weekend, let’s hope that Spurs can add to the Forest tremble.

Well Newcastle lost. Joking aside I always assume that the teams at the top are very likely to win so I don’t let it stress me. It’s good that some of teams in the mix play each other.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on April 20, 2025, 10:04:53 PM
Can't believe we're still only 7th after the run we are on . We've really made this tough for ourselves . Keep going, one game at a time .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 20, 2025, 10:12:20 PM
That’s true to an extent but we were a fair way off, we’ve really bunched it up and now it’s a real opportunity. Before this run it was a long shot.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on April 20, 2025, 10:39:59 PM
Yep 2 pts covering 5 clubs. That was a 5-9 pt gap a month ago. We’ve given ourselves a chance.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 21, 2025, 06:59:09 AM
So far none of the results have gone for us this weekend, let’s hope that Spurs can add to the Forest tremble.

It’s good that some of teams in the mix play each other.

Nottingham Forest –Brentford h (May 1st), Palace a (5th), Leicester h (11th), West Ham a (18th), Chelsea h (25th)

Newcastle Ipswich h (26th), Brighton a (May 4th), Chelsea h (10th), Arsenal a (18th), Everton h (25th)

Manchester City – Aston Villa h (22nd), Wolves h (May 2nd), Southampton a (10th), Bournemouth h (18th), Fulham a (25th)

Chelsea – Everton h (26th), Liverpool h (May 4th), Newcastle a (10th), Manchester United h (18th), Nottingham Forest a (25th)

Aston Villa –  Manchester City a (22nd), Fulham h (3rd), Bournemouth a (10th), Spurs h (18th), Man Utd a (25th)

Not that many,

Forest Chelsea
Newcastle Chelsea
Citeh Villa

Bumping as another game gone.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on April 21, 2025, 08:46:36 AM
Also worth noting that we were 10th and now we are very unlikely to finish below 7th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 21, 2025, 08:50:46 AM
Also worth noting that we were 10th and now we are very unlikely to finish below 7th.

That's a good way of looking at it. We're almost certainly getting European football for a third season running. Glass half full.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 21, 2025, 08:52:50 AM
Citeh will stroll it after us. We need to keep winning but we need two of the other sides to stutter (or continue to stutter).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 21, 2025, 09:05:56 AM

(https://i.ibb.co/23XVzHSH/RDT-20250421-0900081299980038856682372.png) (https://ibb.co/23XVzHSH)

This was the table after the Palace match
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 21, 2025, 09:11:05 AM
There's not much difference between our run in and Man City's now. They have the advantage of playing Southampton instead of Spurs, but:

Villa = Man City
Bournemouth = Bournemouth
Fulham = Fulham
Wolves = Man United
Southampton < Spurs

I think we DID have the toughest run in, but we've beaten third twice, as well as Brighton and Brentford away. We have one of the easiest now...once Man City are out the way. If we win that this is happening. Lose and we probably need four wins.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 21, 2025, 09:13:43 AM

(https://i.ibb.co/23XVzHSH/RDT-20250421-0900081299980038856682372.png) (https://ibb.co/23XVzHSH)

This was the table after the Palace match


To turn that around in five games is mental.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on April 21, 2025, 09:17:41 AM
People wrote us off at the time  saying wed left it too late because we were 10th, nothing else. We were still only 5 points behind 4th. Things can change really quickly.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 21, 2025, 09:20:03 AM
Having played a game more too, so more than five points in reality. I thought we were done after Palace and have no problem confessing to it. Remember saying we need to win five on the bounce NOW just to be in the conversation. Didn't think it likely considering the opposition.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 21, 2025, 09:30:03 AM
Yes the people who said we left it too late might be right we don’t know yet.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on April 21, 2025, 09:44:45 AM
If we don't do it, it wont be because we left it too late. We just need to keep the good run going

 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 21, 2025, 10:08:55 AM
If we don't do it, it wont be because we left it too late. We just need to keep the good run going
No point in arguing semantics.
I just hope we do it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TopDeck113 on April 21, 2025, 10:12:23 AM
We need to beat C115y because I can see them winning all their fixtures after that. 

Chelsea's run-in looks the most difficult.  Hopefully, they'll draw with Forest and Newcastle and lose at least one of their home games.  Newcastle's most likely defeat will be at Arsenal.
A couple of months ago I could have seen Forest winning all their remaining fixtures, but now I reckon they'll be like us a year ago and drop points all over, especially if they have a Cup semi-final hangover.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on April 21, 2025, 10:57:48 AM
Man City, Fulham, Tottenham, Man Utd and Bournemouth. Take 10 points from them and end up on 67 and I think that will just about be enough.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on April 21, 2025, 11:00:28 AM
Europa final is 4 days before we play Manure, that could be an advantage to us. Should we not make the FA Cup Final the Tottenham game is 3 days before the Europa Cup Final, which also could be an advantage to us. If we pick up 6 points from the next 3 games I think we're in a great position.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 21, 2025, 12:00:48 PM
Ceefax lives?!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Astnor on April 21, 2025, 12:01:34 PM
Man City, Fulham, Tottenham, Man Utd and Bournemouth. Take 10 points from them and end up on 67 and I think that will just about be enough.
3 wins, a draw and a no-points from those fixtures is doable given our form.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 21, 2025, 05:45:03 PM
Shearer has his say. https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/c3ev0k9qvgqo

Hard to argue with any of it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 21, 2025, 09:47:04 PM
Official Table updated after weekend. We've gained on Newcastle, but that's about it, as the rest of the league is full of useless, let-down twats.

2. Arsenal 75 points
3. Man City 73
4. Chelsea 70
5. Newcastle 68
6. Forest 65
7. Villa 64
8. Brighton 59
9. Bournemouth 55
10. Brentford 55
11. Fulham 55
12. Palace 51
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on April 21, 2025, 09:48:41 PM
I'm going for Forest to nip us by goal difference, just so everyone can tell you that it's like an extra point.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 21, 2025, 09:53:04 PM
Grrrrr.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: BoVillan esq on April 21, 2025, 09:57:09 PM
We have to win every game, that's it, best we can do.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 21, 2025, 09:57:44 PM
Expecting teams that have got absolutely nothing to play for to do us favours.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villafirst on April 21, 2025, 10:03:05 PM
Bournemouth scoring in the 97th minute to make it 1-1 and drawing 1-1 with Ipswich at Villa Park is coming back to bite us. Those 4 points dropped are proving painful!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on April 21, 2025, 10:03:56 PM
We’re not out of it but neither is anyone else. It’ll go to the final day imv for all 5 clubs.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: itbrvilla on April 21, 2025, 10:06:42 PM
Bournemouth scoring in the 97th minute to make it 1-1 and drawing 1-1 with Ipswich at Villa Park is coming back to bite us. Those 4 points dropped are proving painful!
Forest away...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on April 21, 2025, 10:10:21 PM
Such a shame our application in 2 or 3 games this season wasn't at the usual level.

First season in a while where I find myself looking back at certain games and wondering.

We have an awful lot to do despite the upturn in form.

Never rely on Spurs
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 21, 2025, 10:11:05 PM
Or, nothing is going to "bite" us as we will still qualify.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: danno on April 21, 2025, 10:12:30 PM
Yeah, having an inquest before we’re dead is weird.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on April 21, 2025, 10:15:12 PM
No inquest there. Frustrated that other clubs around us keep winning and we can't just focus on Wembley but have to keep winning ourselves.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 21, 2025, 10:16:33 PM
Let’s be honest, we’ve done well to pull ourselves back from a ropey period of the season. But if we don’t make it it is on us. We have it in our hands, unbelievably strong squad, an unbelievable manager. We should be qualifying from this position.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 21, 2025, 10:20:49 PM
Teams above us will drop points.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 21, 2025, 10:21:17 PM
So far none of the results have gone for us this weekend, let’s hope that Spurs can add to the Forest tremble.

It’s good that some of teams in the mix play each other.

Nottingham Forest –Brentford h (May 1st), Palace a (5th), Leicester h (11th), West Ham a (18th), Chelsea h (25th)

Newcastle Ipswich h (26th), Brighton a (May 4th), Chelsea h (10th), Arsenal a (18th), Everton h (25th)

Manchester City – Aston Villa h (22nd), Wolves h (May 2nd), Southampton a (10th), Bournemouth h (18th), Fulham a (25th)

Chelsea – Everton h (26th), Liverpool h (May 4th), Newcastle a (10th), Manchester United h (18th), Nottingham Forest a (25th)

Aston Villa –  Manchester City a (22nd), Fulham h (3rd), Bournemouth a (10th), Spurs h (18th), Man Utd a (25th)

Not that many,

Forest Chelsea
Newcastle Chelsea
Citeh Villa

Bumping as another game gone.
bumped
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 21, 2025, 10:23:09 PM
Teams above us will drop points.

That is certain. Like I say, it’s in our hands. If we win all 5 we’re there. Tomorrow is crucial.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 21, 2025, 10:28:50 PM
7 wins between now and the end of the season will be a statement.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villafirst on April 21, 2025, 10:31:25 PM
Bournemouth scoring in the 97th minute to make it 1-1 and drawing 1-1 with Ipswich at Villa Park is coming back to bite us. Those 4 points dropped are proving painful!
Forest away...

The ref won that for Forest. Rogers was denied a certain penalty in the first half and Cash was fouled for their second goal.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 21, 2025, 10:32:19 PM
Such a shame our application in 2 or 3 games this season wasn't at the usual level.

First season in a while where I find myself looking back at certain games and wondering.

But don't look back in anger., Don't look back in anger," I heard you say.....
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villafirst on April 21, 2025, 10:35:33 PM
To think Spurs or Yanited  could qualify for the Champions League if they somehow win the Europa League! Spurs have lost 18 Premier League games this season! Pathetic.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 21, 2025, 10:59:57 PM
I was very confident after Saturday but away wins for Chelsea and Forest since then, the two teams we're most likely to pip, makes it that bit tougher. We lose tomorrow to Citeh and they are almost there while we are unlikely to catch them.

It'll be so wank if it comes down to goal difference.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on April 21, 2025, 11:05:27 PM
Lose tomorrow and in all likelihood we'll be two results away after the weekend, with four to play. Puts us back at long odds. Need to win.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on April 22, 2025, 07:14:56 AM
Given our record there, I’d take a draw.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: RamboandBruno on April 22, 2025, 07:19:56 AM
I think even if we beat Man City tonight, which is a big ask, their run in means they will almost definitely make it. So we’re probably looking at 4 teams for 2 places.
All our remaining fixtures after tonight are winnable, but seems like a huge ask to win all our remaining fixtures after the run we’ve already had, would that be the best winning run in our history??

I have a feeling it’ll come down to having to beat Man Utd away on the last day. .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: claret+blue ed on April 22, 2025, 07:51:47 AM
It would be nice if Man City's case decision was announced so we knew if they was getting any punishment
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 22, 2025, 08:10:27 AM
It would be nice if Man City's case decision was announced so we knew if they was getting any punishment

I've just seen a pig flying by
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 22, 2025, 08:27:09 AM
Think whatever happens it won't have any impact on this season, given they'll appeal regardless of the punishment.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: London Villan on April 22, 2025, 09:03:14 AM
It's an easy get out for the PL if they do it this season though. A record point deduction, enough of a point deduction so they aren't relegated, but miss out on European football and a transfer ban for 3 seasons - reduced to 1 on appeal.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 22, 2025, 09:06:32 AM
Think whatever happens it won't have any impact on this season, given they'll appeal regardless of the punishment.

I don't think they'll appeal, that's what this whole negotiation process is at the moment, so the Premier League agree the sanction with them.

I reckon if they finish outside the Top 5 they will be keen for a points deduction this season.
They'll get about 30 points so just enough not to be relegated.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 22, 2025, 09:09:45 AM
It's an easy get out for the PL if they do it this season though. A record point deduction, enough of a point deduction so they aren't relegated, but miss out on European football and a transfer ban for 3 seasons - reduced to 1 on appeal.

It is, and I agree with your logic. It just feels like if that's what's going to happen (and the cynical reasons that you suggest), they'd have done it by now.

i.e all parties are happy-ish, Man City take the relatively small hit in the context of a bad season, don't appeal and everyone just draws a line under it - does that probably not see it announced last month because there isn't a reason to drag it out any further?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 22, 2025, 09:15:33 AM
Easier to start the season with a points deduction I’d imagine.  Less fall out.  Which, if they get 5th at our expense, will be a kick in the nuts. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 22, 2025, 09:21:48 AM
Easier to start the season with a points deduction I’d imagine.  Less fall out.  Which, if they get 5th at our expense, will be a kick in the nuts. 

But isn't the point of the "plan" as above to see them take the hit when they're not going to win the title anyway (so less fall out), rather than giving them a hypothetical second fallow season in a row?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on April 22, 2025, 10:08:59 AM
Easier to start the season with a points deduction I’d imagine.  Less fall out.  Which, if they get 5th at our expense, will be a kick in the nuts. 

But isn't the point of the "plan" as above to see them take the hit when they're not going to win the title anyway (so less fall out), rather than giving them a hypothetical second fallow season in a row?

I honestly thought their mid season collapse was in part fuelled by them knowing in the background that they were getting done, and it had took the wind out of them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 22, 2025, 10:12:02 AM
Easier to start the season with a points deduction I’d imagine.  Less fall out.  Which, if they get 5th at our expense, will be a kick in the nuts. 

But isn't the point of the "plan" as above to see them take the hit when they're not going to win the title anyway (so less fall out), rather than giving them a hypothetical second fallow season in a row?

I honestly thought their mid season collapse was in part fuelled by them knowing in the background that they were getting done, and it had took the wind out of them.

Also the massive splurge in January / tie Haaland to a longer contract in the expectation that they wouldn't be able to do that sort of things next season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: London Villan on April 22, 2025, 11:18:32 AM
Chelsea having to play Newcastle, Liverpool and Forest makes it tough for them, Newcastle also have to go to Arsenal.

10 points from the last 5 games would be enough I think...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 22, 2025, 11:23:56 AM
Never trust Arsenal.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 22, 2025, 11:25:24 AM
Possibly, but if Newcastle win their 3 home games that means 10 points doesn’t catch them. I think we need 12 points.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 22, 2025, 11:32:31 AM
But we don't necessarily need to finish ahead of Newcastle.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 22, 2025, 11:33:48 AM
Which makes it more annoying that they're the only team we gained on despite an excellent performance/result.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rudy Can't Fail on April 22, 2025, 12:07:19 PM
But we don't necessarily need to finish ahead of Newcastle.

Obviously but looking at the remaining fixtures I see Chelsea and Newcastle as the most likely we can finish above. Man City after tonight have an easy run in, as do Forest. Chelsea should be out of it come the last game of the season.

After tonight, the away trip to Bournemouth looks our only real banana skin. We will have to win all our remaining games though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 22, 2025, 12:13:07 PM
But we don't necessarily need to finish ahead of Newcastle.

Obviously but looking at the remaining fixtures I see Chelsea and Newcastle as the most likely we can finish above. Man City after tonight have an easy run in, as do Forest. Chelsea should be out of it come the last game of the season.

I still think that if we do it (and on balance of probabilities we'll likely fall just short) then it'll be as a result of Forest bottling it rather than Newcastle bottling it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 22, 2025, 12:13:42 PM
Yep my point was more it’s two teams we need to leap frog. That makes it tough, so means we’re going to have to get north of 12 points to realistically do it - short of two teams falling off completely.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 22, 2025, 12:14:37 PM
Easier to start the season with a points deduction I’d imagine.  Less fall out.  Which, if they get 5th at our expense, will be a kick in the nuts. 

But isn't the point of the "plan" as above to see them take the hit when they're not going to win the title anyway (so less fall out), rather than giving them a hypothetical second fallow season in a row?

I should've been clearer in that I meant the fall out on other teams - was thinking of things like lost prize money for finishing a place lower because of them being punished, or fixtures being played post-punishment being less intensely fought etc.  I think the PL will probably go for the easiest, cleanest option, which I would think is everyone starting the season knowing the drill.  Or, more probably, they'll just get a fine. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 22, 2025, 12:20:16 PM
12 points will be enough.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 22, 2025, 12:24:57 PM
Is the Chelsea-Forest game the only remaining head-to-head between all five competitors ?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 22, 2025, 12:25:43 PM
Is the Chelsea-Forest game the only remaining head-to-head between all five competitors ?

Well ours tonight but Chelsea also have to play Newcastle at some point as well.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ozzjim on April 22, 2025, 02:22:48 PM
But we don't necessarily need to finish ahead of Newcastle.

Obviously but looking at the remaining fixtures I see Chelsea and Newcastle as the most likely we can finish above. Man City after tonight have an easy run in, as do Forest. Chelsea should be out of it come the last game of the season.

I still think that if we do it (and on balance of probabilities we'll likely fall just short) then it'll be as a result of Forest bottling it rather than Newcastle bottling it.

Same here. Newcastle are unpredictable though, and you just don't know if our result might make them stumble. For me, 12 from the last 5 sees us scrape 5th. 11 might be enough on 68 too. Forest are awful to watch and only still in the race due to 3-4 sides simply not finishing their chances. Their keeper is single handedly getting them there at the moment.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: jon collett on April 22, 2025, 02:30:03 PM
Pretty sure it’s been leaked - in reality briefed - by the Premier League that the judgment won’t come until after the season has ended.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 22, 2025, 02:33:14 PM
Before the Newcastle game, I thought 4 wins and a draw would be sufficient. Given the weekend's results, we probably need another 3 wins and two draws. Lose tonight, and we'll need 4 wins.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 22, 2025, 02:42:13 PM
But we don't necessarily need to finish ahead of Newcastle.

Obviously but looking at the remaining fixtures I see Chelsea and Newcastle as the most likely we can finish above. Man City after tonight have an easy run in, as do Forest. Chelsea should be out of it come the last game of the season.

I still think that if we do it (and on balance of probabilities we'll likely fall just short) then it'll be as a result of Forest bottling it rather than Newcastle bottling it.

Same here. Newcastle are unpredictable though, and you just don't know if our result might make them stumble. For me, 12 from the last 5 sees us scrape 5th. 11 might be enough on 68 too. Forest are awful to watch and only still in the race due to 3-4 sides simply not finishing their chances. Their keeper is single handedly getting them there at the moment.

I think twelve from the last five would see us get there pretty comfortably actually. While all five teams are good(ish), I think everyone drops points stupidly somewhere, regardless of how easy their matches look.

Leicester beating Forest feels like the sort of silly result that would happen in a local derby. Chelsea also beat Forest on the last day even though they've lost a couple and are out of it by then. We concede a late equaliser against Fulham having controlled the game (a re-run of the Bournemouth home game) and stupidly capitulate to an awful Man Utd on the last day.

That kind of thing.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on April 22, 2025, 02:44:09 PM
I think if we win tonight I can't see us being stopped by anybody.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: RamboandBruno on April 22, 2025, 02:55:05 PM
I think if we win tonight I can't see us being stopped by anybody.
I think man city will come out the traps from the start tonight, Peps doing the old ‘do
You want the champions league’ malarky.
But I think your right Lee, batter Newcastle and beat Man City in the space of three days, no fecker is getting near us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on April 22, 2025, 03:10:43 PM
I really think this is going to change so much over the next three games.  The teams are all so close, that literally a single result could move you three or four places.

Tonight is really important.  I don't think we need to win it (though we're definitely capable of doing so), but lose it, and I think we'll struggle to get the 5 more points required in the last 4 games to finish above City.  Which then leaves us trying to finish ahead of two of the other three.

As others have said, win tonight, and I'll start feeling confident we can do it. 

No one is going to win every game to the end of the season (at least it would be pretty incredible if they did), more importantly, it's impossible for ALL of the teams above us to do it, given they are playing each other.  Chelsea have to play Forest AND Newcastle, Chelsea also have to play Liverpool, Newcastle have to play Arsenal as well.  After tonight, you could potentially see Man City winning every game, which is why they're favourites for top 5.

Whatever happens tonight, I suspect we're going to need some sort of result at Old Trafford on the last day.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on April 22, 2025, 03:17:59 PM
Never trust Arsenal.

One of the rules to live your football related life by.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 22, 2025, 04:17:14 PM
Lots Of teams on the beach already.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: oldtimernow on April 22, 2025, 04:21:40 PM
Pretty sure it’s been leaked - in reality briefed - by the Premier League that the judgment won’t come until after the season has ended.

Hedging their bets...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: stevo_st on April 22, 2025, 10:04:45 PM
Don’t think we’ll catch Arsenal now
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on April 22, 2025, 10:05:16 PM
Fucking yes.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Louzie0 on April 22, 2025, 10:06:22 PM
Of course.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 22, 2025, 10:08:57 PM
Sadly I think we'll come up short. As outstanding as we can be at times we have these ponderous and passive performances in us too often.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on April 22, 2025, 10:10:11 PM
Relegate those plastic ******.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on April 22, 2025, 10:14:07 PM
No chance
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 22, 2025, 10:15:31 PM
If we win our remaining 4 games, we will. If we don't, we won't.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: London Villan on April 22, 2025, 10:15:51 PM
10 points gives s a chance still - but 4 wins is a big ask.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Jon Crofts on April 22, 2025, 10:17:59 PM
Nope.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on April 22, 2025, 10:19:21 PM
Play attacking football and there's a good chance still. Set up like that crap tonight and no chance.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villafirst on April 22, 2025, 10:20:58 PM
The remaining games are all winnable.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: walsall villain on April 22, 2025, 10:21:39 PM
Nope. Forest, man C and newcastle will make up the top 5. I think we will end up 6th
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 22, 2025, 10:24:06 PM
After that passive bullshit no way.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: IFWaters on April 22, 2025, 10:34:57 PM
City can win 3 games and get 70, and they have easy games.
Newcastle still have to play Brighton away, Chelsea home and Arsenal away in their 5 games.
Forest have Palace away and Chelsea at home last match
Chelsea have Liverpool at home, Newcastle away, Man Utd at home and forest in their games

I can see Chelsea slipping up but we also need one of Forest and Newcastle to as well. Don't think we will catch city.

I think if we win all 4 then we can do it, I don't know what the odds of 5 teams in a points race all winning all their last 4 or 5 games is but it has to be enormous.

One problem this year is that after this weekend all the other teams in the league probably have nothing left to play for.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 22, 2025, 10:35:09 PM
I'll still say yes, but if we don't he needs the FA Cup win, which unfortunately will probably be against Citeh.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on April 22, 2025, 10:39:31 PM
I'll still say yes, but if we don't he needs the FA Cup win, which unfortunately will probably be against Citeh.
We will get europa league via the cup or final league position, no question.
Unfortunately we won’t get the big one, the one that matters
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Paul.S on April 22, 2025, 10:40:52 PM
Yes
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 22, 2025, 10:42:06 PM
Big ask now. Need to win all 4 games I suspect. Tonight was very disappointing and uncharacteristically weird from Unai.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: RamboandBruno on April 22, 2025, 10:47:38 PM
Big ask now. Need to win all 4 games I suspect. Tonight was very disappointing and uncharacteristically weird from Unai.
Desasi for Cash was odd, but Rogers is Unai’s understandable blindspot. He was dreadful from
start to finish and other players have been hooked at h/t for better performances. Im pretty convinced we had so little threat as Rashford was so isolated with Rogers offering nothing tonight. He’s been brilliant for us, but body language was all wrong. He was also lucky not to get a second yellow at one point, an utterly strange performance, but Unai was culpable in not bringing him off earlier.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 22, 2025, 10:52:05 PM
Rogers was dreadful and looked knackered, and he was actively unhelpful once booked. Leaving him on and having Disasi are right back was a massive error and cost us the game. It’s very tough from here, I think we need to win 4 out of 4.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 22, 2025, 10:59:23 PM
Rogers was dreadful and looked knackered, and he was actively unhelpful once booked. Leaving him on and having Disasi are right back was a massive error and cost us the game. It’s very tough from here, I think we need to win 4 out of 4.
The problem I  have, it’s not like he does not have options.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 22, 2025, 11:01:43 PM
The remaining games are all winnable.

For other clubs, yes. We aren't beating Man U.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on April 22, 2025, 11:03:24 PM
He does make up to 5 subs a game so it's not as if he never makes any. Tonight he made the wrong ones.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 22, 2025, 11:14:21 PM
The remaining games are all winnable.

For other clubs, yes. We aren't beating Man U.

Yes we are, and it will make it all the sweeter if it confirms top 5. Bournemouth away is the one I'm concerned about.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 22, 2025, 11:17:06 PM
TNT on Thursday nights.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 22, 2025, 11:17:59 PM
He does make up to 5 subs a game so it's not as if he never makes any. Tonight he made the wrong ones.

I think he left Malen off for so long because he felt he wouldn't track back enough. However McGinn for Rogers instead of Ramsey was the initial call. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tokyo Sexwhale on April 22, 2025, 11:19:01 PM
I think we're done.

We need to win all 4 of our games; and I don't think we will.

I don't even think 3 wins and a draw will be enough; unless two of Forest, Chelsea and Newcastle shit the bed. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on April 23, 2025, 12:26:14 AM
I think we have to win all 4 games, and although possible, I'd say it's improbable. I'd give us less than a 30% chance of qualifying from here. I'm hoping Man City get knocked out of the FA Cup after that performance.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 23, 2025, 12:28:59 AM
TNT on Thursday nights.

The Blose are watching cos they're fookin'shite
What a feeling, what a night
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Louzie0 on April 23, 2025, 12:43:20 AM
Wondering how Rogers was feeling, given his background with City, whether that or off pitch shenanigans may have contributed to his unsettled demeanour tonight. Pure speculation, he usually plays with a smile on his face!
Whatever it was, I hope he’s over it, we need him to clinch CL wins in the next 4 matches and the FACup!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on April 23, 2025, 01:38:16 AM
He does make up to 5 subs a game so it's not as if he never makes any. Tonight he made the wrong ones.

I think he left Malen off for so long because he felt he wouldn't track back enough. However McGinn for Rogers instead of Ramsey was the initial call.

Agreed.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan For Life on April 23, 2025, 04:55:38 AM
Do you want to bet against us?

We had just suffered a home defeat against our title rivals when Ron Saunders said those words. We need to show belief and get behind the team. It ain’t over yet and there will be a few more twists and turns to come.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 23, 2025, 07:03:58 AM
I think the problem we have is Citeh, with their fixtures, are very likely gone. Newcastle have three very winnable homes games - which if they do, another point takes them to our maximum tally, and their GD is far superior.

That means Forest and Chelsea are likely the two we have to leapfrog- Chelsea, possible but Forest’s fixtures are pretty benign and they need 9 points basically even if we win all our games.

Not impossible obviously, but I’d say it’s got pretty unlikely.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ozzjim on April 23, 2025, 07:07:49 AM
Forest are now our only hope. A draw kept us in it, but however kind I am to Villa, I have use 6th by a point. Sat is huge now, need to win to secure Europa, which gives us another route to CL next season and a chance to gain points towards 5th CL spot the season after. Winning the Europa would be brilliant fun too.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on April 23, 2025, 07:47:56 AM
Feeling very flat this morning.  I was confident with a point, but we're now firmly in the "need other teams to seriously falter" territory.  We just have to win our remaining games and try to take it to the final day.  City are gone (and have the best run in).  I suspect Newcastle will bounce back after our win.  Unfortunately, Chelsea and Forest play each other (on the last day), because we need to overtake both, and they can't both lose that match.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OzVilla on April 23, 2025, 07:49:09 AM
Not securing that point has stuffed us due to our goal difference.  Forest now have a 2 game buffer with (for them 5 to play).  I cant see them collapsing which is what we'd need them to do now.  Newcastle's fixtures are kind too, but I think we'll still finish above Chelsea.  We desperately needed that point.

I've a horrible feeling this'll be a season of if only's.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulTheVillan on April 23, 2025, 07:53:54 AM
We need to win every game now. In both competitions to make this season better than last
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 23, 2025, 08:09:23 AM
One area for obvious improvement for next season is the number of goals we concede post 90 minutes. Across the season it has happened too often to be a coincidence.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 23, 2025, 08:15:55 AM
I think if we win all four we'll do it. However, biggest thing now is winning Saturday, for the cup final obviously but also because it makes 7th place Europa.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 23, 2025, 08:43:32 AM
One area for obvious improvement for next season is the number of goals we concede post 90 minutes. Across the season it has happened to often to be a coincidence.
8.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OzVilla on April 23, 2025, 09:22:46 AM
Wonder how many points that’s cost us?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dick Edwards on April 23, 2025, 09:30:35 AM
Do you want to bet against us?

We had just suffered a home defeat against our title rivals when Ron Saunders said those words. We need to show belief and get behind the team. It ain’t over yet and there will be a few more twists and turns to come.
Absolutely this. Man up everybody, we go again on Saturday
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 23, 2025, 09:32:03 AM
God I hate the phrase, “man up”. It’s quite possible to be supportive of the club and also acknowledge we’ve made it difficult for ourselves.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dick Edwards on April 23, 2025, 09:33:28 AM
God I hate the phrase, “man up”. It’s quite possible to be supportive of the club and also acknowledge we’ve made it difficult for ourselves.
Which is exactly what we did in 1981
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 23, 2025, 09:37:38 AM
The amount of times since '81 that we've succeeded in a "do you want to bet against us" scenario are far outweighed by the times we did indeed 'fail'. Otherwise we'd have been a shitload more successful.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: London Villan on April 23, 2025, 10:08:18 AM
In 3 of the last 5 seasons (19/20, 22/23, 23/24), we've needed results to go our way, as well as doing our bit. We've had the rub of the green - I just wonder if our luck will hold up this season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on April 23, 2025, 10:10:08 AM
In 3 of the last 5 seasons (19/20, 22/23, 23/24), we've needed results to go our way, as well as doing our bit. We've had the rub of the green - I just wonder if our luck will hold up this season.

There’s no reason it shouldn’t. Lots of football to be played yet.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: caster troy on April 23, 2025, 10:23:10 AM
I think Man City, Forest and Newcastle will be out of reach now going into the final game even if we've won our three before then. Maybe we will get incredibly lucky and there will be a points deduction for C115y.

Chelsea v Liverpool makes me nervous as the title will be done by then. We will be at a disadvantage in the last game compared to Chelsea as Forest will have secured top 5 by that stage and we face our bogey team.

Newcastle v Chelsea will be a strange one as we might need Chelsea to win to keep faint top 5 hopes alive, but a Newcastle win could put 6th place in our own hands.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 23, 2025, 10:37:43 AM
In 3 of the last 5 seasons (19/20, 22/23, 23/24), we've needed results to go our way, as well as doing our bit. We've had the rub of the green - I just wonder if our luck will hold up this season.

You always finish where you deserve, luck has nothing to do with it
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on April 23, 2025, 10:45:16 AM
In 3 of the last 5 seasons (19/20, 22/23, 23/24), we've needed results to go our way, as well as doing our bit. We've had the rub of the green - I just wonder if our luck will hold up this season.

You always finish where you deserve, luck has nothing to do with it

Indeed 38 games v all other teams home and away has always been the best indicator of how good a team is relative to its peers.

Always irked me that Ipswich seen as best team in 1980/81. Well they may well have been for 36 games but that wasn't the case when it was 42.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rudy65 on April 23, 2025, 11:28:16 AM
It’s correct to point to the late goals we’ve conceded over the season which may contribute to us not qualifying for the CL but I think they’re another fundamental reason. Bar Arsenal, where we drew, we’ve lost away to all our CL rivals. Often with miserable performances. Failure to take more points in these games is a big factor imo. Conversely our home form against these rivals has been good with only Arsenal beating us
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 23, 2025, 11:30:30 AM
The amount of times since '81 that we've succeeded in a "do you want to bet against us" scenario are far outweighed by the times we did indeed 'fail'. Otherwise we'd have been a shitload more successful.

Indeed - although as it happens I have more confidence now. That said, if we do win our final 4 games and don’t make it then the other teams deserve it, because they’ve done exceptionally well.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 23, 2025, 11:36:00 AM
I suspect that if we do miss out, it will be the two late goals at Forest that does for us rather than the one last night.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Monty on April 23, 2025, 11:36:36 AM
I suspect that if we do miss out, it will be the two late goals at Forest that does for us rather than the one last night.

And 2 points from 6 against Ipswich.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 23, 2025, 11:50:34 AM
Every team can look at every game they played and question whether or not it cost them. The truth is that for every point dropped it's cost us. There are numerous reasons for dropping points, poor decisions by referees, by Emery, by players on the pitch, poor execution of the plan, or the skill required, tiredness, injuries.

We've not been good enough to win anything yet, but that goes for most teams doesn't it?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on April 23, 2025, 01:14:32 PM
I suspect that if we do miss out, it will be the two late goals at Forest that does for us rather than the one last night.

And 2 points from 6 against Ipswich.

It’s the Ipswich games that I keep looking back to. You knew before a ball was kicked that they’d be struggling all season so to not beat them in either game is poor.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on April 23, 2025, 01:18:12 PM
I suspect that if we do miss out, it will be the two late goals at Forest that does for us rather than the one last night.

And 2 points from 6 against Ipswich.

It’s the Ipswich games that I keep looking back to. You knew before a ball was kicked that they’d be struggling all season so to not beat them in either game is poor.

That and the Bournemouth game. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 23, 2025, 01:22:25 PM
Win the last 4, which I think we ought to and see what happens.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 23, 2025, 01:31:38 PM
I'd throw in the Bournemouth game. We were flying before that, had lost once all season, were three for three in the Champions League and we did enough to beat Bournemouth three or four times over.

Then a silly free-kick given away, a 93rd minute equaliser and we didn't win a game for another two months.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Marlon From Bearwood on April 23, 2025, 01:34:27 PM
The average points total over the last 10 years for teams finishing 5th is 67.90.

But you only need to beat the team in 6th, and the average for 6th place is 61.50.

I still think 67 points (3 wins plus 1 draw) might be enough for us to finish top 5. 4 wins almost certainly would.

(I asked Copilot for this info, but hopefully it’s accurate!).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tokyo Sexwhale on April 23, 2025, 02:54:42 PM
Wonder how many points that’s cost us?

2 pts vs Bournemouth
0 pts vs Tottenham (game already lost)
1 pt vs Forest
0 pts vs Man City (game won)
0 pts vs Newcastle (game lost)
0 pts vs Wolves (game lost)
0 pts vs Palace (game lost)
1 pt vs Man City

So "only" cost us 4 points; but would have been enough to be in pole position.





Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 23, 2025, 03:30:52 PM
Danger here is to assume other teams don't have their own uniquely frustrating stats to go with their ifs and buts.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: RamboandBruno on April 23, 2025, 04:04:14 PM
Been on leave from work today so more time to mull over the game last night. Despite the blow that it undoubtedly was, I’m not sure a point would make a massive difference to what happens at the end of the season, which makes our second half approach all the more frustrating.

I’m probably going to be way off here, but Man City look sorted, so its four for two places. I don’t see Chelsea getting many more points with their run in. Which leaves Forest and Newcastle. It looks to me that Newcastles tricky games are Brighton and Arsenal away and possibly Everton at home last game, especially if they have to still win to get top 5.  We probably need them to lose two out of five or draw 3.
Forest, Brentford at home may be tricky if Brentford still have an outside chance of Europe, Palace away might be tough too. I can actually see Forest drawing a few of their games. Again I think we need Forest to lose at least one and draw two or three.

I think if we win all four, we’ll probably still squeeze in, just, big ask though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 23, 2025, 04:15:28 PM
I am frustrated we played with an inferiority complex last night. But, with a bit of distance, our task is simple now - I think we need to win the remaining games, which is tough, but possible. If we do that we get to 69 points and if 3 of the other sides match or better that then they deserve their place.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: RamboandBruno on April 23, 2025, 04:30:06 PM
I am frustrated we played with an inferiority complex last night. But, with a bit of distance, our task is simple now - I think we need to win the remaining games, which is tough, but possible. If we do that we get to 69 points and if 3 of the other sides match or better that then they deserve their place.
Agree
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: caster troy on April 23, 2025, 04:32:45 PM
I'd throw in the Bournemouth game. We were flying before that, had lost once all season, were three for three in the Champions League and we did enough to beat Bournemouth three or four times over.

Then a silly free-kick given away, a 93rd minute equaliser and we didn't win a game for another two months.


I think that the game where we had a goal ruled out because Watkins had allegedly carried the ball out of play, but we never saw a conclusive replay? That really felt like a sliding doors moment for me at the time.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 23, 2025, 04:44:42 PM
McGinn. I was right in line with it and it did look out to me.

Who knows though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on April 23, 2025, 06:26:45 PM
If we finish on 69 points and finish 6th or 7th, we've been unlucky as that's often enough for 4th place, let alone 5th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tony Daleys Shorts on April 23, 2025, 07:56:55 PM
If we finish on 69 points and finish 6th or 7th, we've been unlucky as that's often enough for 4th place, let alone 5th.

Plus it would be 1 more point than last season. I think we’d have all settled for that before a ball was kicked.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 23, 2025, 08:05:55 PM
I'd throw in the Bournemouth game. We were flying before that, had lost once all season, were three for three in the Champions League and we did enough to beat Bournemouth three or four times over.

Then a silly free-kick given away, a 93rd minute equaliser and we didn't win a game for another two months.


What was our next win, Brentford at home?

November was a killer - collapsing at Spurs, conceding two goals at Anfield from our own corners. Letting Sarr burn us on the break twice for Palace at VP and just being plain awful at Stamford Bridge.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 23, 2025, 08:13:33 PM
What was our next win, Brentford at home?

Yup
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on April 24, 2025, 01:30:05 AM
I'd throw in the Bournemouth game. We were flying before that, had lost once all season, were three for three in the Champions League and we did enough to beat Bournemouth three or four times over.

Then a silly free-kick given away, a 93rd minute equaliser and we didn't win a game for another two months.


What was our next win, Brentford at home?

November was a killer - collapsing at Spurs, conceding two goals at Anfield from our own corners. Letting Sarr burn us on the break twice for Palace at VP and just being plain awful at Stamford Bridge.

Tielemans missing that fucking penalty!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dick Edwards on April 24, 2025, 08:12:37 AM
We’ve had three ‘six pointers ‘ in the last month, won two and lost one. If we hadn’t left ourselves with so much to do that would have been viewed as a successful outcome. I still think we will finish top five but only two months ago many didn’t think we’d make even the Conference League position, we were so far off the pace. We’re now pretty much nailed on for that at least. It’s going to be a run in with so much still to play for.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 24, 2025, 08:51:18 AM
We had two bad spells. One mostly self-inflicted, and one largely due to bad luck when we were getting a new centre-half injured in the first half of every game. We'd still have qualified with one of those runs, but not two. Don't make too many plans for Thursday nights next season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 24, 2025, 08:56:07 AM
7th looks secure and that will be Europa as long as Palace don't win the cup. That is our motivation for Saturday. If we do get to the cup final we'll lose to Man City but we won't have to play them in the Europa League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on April 24, 2025, 10:16:45 AM
7th looks secure and that will be Europa as long as Palace don't win the cup. That is our motivation for Saturday. If we do get to the cup final we'll lose to Man City but we won't have to play them in the Europa League.

I've seen a few people say this, have you got a source for it? It would be good to know that beating Palace would effectively guarantee us Europa League next season.  My big fear is being in the Conference league again.  I want Champions League, but Europa wouldn't be a total disaster - and it's another realistic chance of a trophy, even if financially it's not as good.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 24, 2025, 10:23:41 AM
7th looks secure and that will be Europa as long as Palace don't win the cup. That is our motivation for Saturday. If we do get to the cup final we'll lose to Man City but we won't have to play them in the Europa League.

I've seen a few people say this, have you got a source for it? It would be good to know that beating Palace would effectively guarantee us Europa League next season.  My big fear is being in the Conference league again.  I want Champions League, but Europa wouldn't be a total disaster - and it's another realistic chance of a trophy, even if financially it's not as good.


https://www.premierleague.com/news/373663

Quote
If the FA Cup winners finish in the top five of the Premier League, their UEL league-phase place will go to the next-highest ranked team not qualified for UEFA competitions in the Premier League.

So if we beat Palace, we either qualify as FA Cup winners, or because Man City / Forest have beaten us in the final so sixth / seventh are both Europea League.

If Palace get to the final and lose, they don't get the spot - they used to, but UEFA said they didn't want runners up spoiling their competitions, so that was scrapped in 2016.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 24, 2025, 10:41:44 AM
Good old consistency from UEFA as usual.... Not having runners up but letting teams finishing 5th in a domestic competition play in the top European one.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on April 24, 2025, 12:54:25 PM
7th looks secure and that will be Europa as long as Palace don't win the cup. That is our motivation for Saturday. If we do get to the cup final we'll lose to Man City but we won't have to play them in the Europa League.

I've seen a few people say this, have you got a source for it? It would be good to know that beating Palace would effectively guarantee us Europa League next season.  My big fear is being in the Conference league again.  I want Champions League, but Europa wouldn't be a total disaster - and it's another realistic chance of a trophy, even if financially it's not as good.


https://www.premierleague.com/news/373663

Quote
If the FA Cup winners finish in the top five of the Premier League, their UEL league-phase place will go to the next-highest ranked team not qualified for UEFA competitions in the Premier League.

So if we beat Palace, we either qualify as FA Cup winners, or because Man City / Forest have beaten us in the final so sixth / seventh are both Europea League.

If Palace get to the final and lose, they don't get the spot - they used to, but UEFA said they didn't want runners up spoiling their competitions, so that was scrapped in 2016.

That's great, thanks for explaining!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 24, 2025, 12:55:06 PM
7th looks secure and that will be Europa as long as Palace don't win the cup. That is our motivation for Saturday. If we do get to the cup final we'll lose to Man City but we won't have to play them in the Europa League.

I've seen a few people say this, have you got a source for it? It would be good to know that beating Palace would effectively guarantee us Europa League next season.  My big fear is being in the Conference league again.  I want Champions League, but Europa wouldn't be a total disaster - and it's another realistic chance of a trophy, even if financially it's not as good.

Especially with Emery's record in the Europa and now being arguably an easier competition without the big boys dropping down from the CL halfway through.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 25, 2025, 12:08:43 AM
It's a competition we should definitely be targeting to win which isn't the case with the CL. But our squad will be weaker if we're not in the CL and our revenue less. As it's 2025,  those things are more important than a trophy.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 25, 2025, 08:56:54 AM
It's a competition we should definitely be targeting to win which isn't the case with the CL. But our squad will be weaker if we're not in the CL and our revenue less. As it's 2025,  those things are more important than a trophy.

I imagine that everyone would prefer to finish fifth or higher rather than sixth or lower, but if the reality turns out to be Europa League then it shouldn't be seen as a disaster.

And if it is a disaster, then something has gone wrong somewhere because we shouldn't *now* be in a position where we're relying on Champions League qualification for our sustainability.

We're definitely not a club that finishes 4th/5th or higher from now for evermore. If we qualfiy this season we might miss out next season, or the season after that. So we need to put ourselves in a situation where Champions League qualification and what it brings is a bonus, not a necessity.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villa in Denmark on April 25, 2025, 09:43:08 AM
Words of wisdom from Dave (as ever).

It would be problematic if it caused an exodus but over the last 4-5 years who has been guaranteed Champions League?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 25, 2025, 10:45:29 AM
It's a competition we should definitely be targeting to win which isn't the case with the CL. But our squad will be weaker if we're not in the CL and our revenue less. As it's 2025,  those things are more important than a trophy.

I imagine that everyone would prefer to finish fifth or higher rather than sixth or lower, but if the reality turns out to be Europa League then it shouldn't be seen as a disaster.

As I put it in a group chat, if we have to settle for a TAG Heuer instead of a Patek Philippe, so be it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on April 25, 2025, 11:33:21 AM
It's a competition we should definitely be targeting to win which isn't the case with the CL. But our squad will be weaker if we're not in the CL and our revenue less. As it's 2025,  those things are more important than a trophy.

I imagine that everyone would prefer to finish fifth or higher rather than sixth or lower, but if the reality turns out to be Europa League then it shouldn't be seen as a disaster.

And if it is a disaster, then something has gone wrong somewhere because we shouldn't *now* be in a position where we're relying on Champions League qualification for our sustainability.

We're definitely not a club that finishes 4th/5th or higher from now for evermore. If we qualfiy this season we might miss out next season, or the season after that. So we need to put ourselves in a situation where Champions League qualification and what it brings is a bonus, not a necessity.

I only see us getting stronger. Qualifying this year should be seen as a bonus but if we do, I think the chances of us qualifying in future increases.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave P on April 25, 2025, 12:33:19 PM
7th looks secure and that will be Europa as long as Palace don't win the cup. That is our motivation for Saturday. If we do get to the cup final we'll lose to Man City but we won't have to play them in the Europa League.

I've seen a few people say this, have you got a source for it? It would be good to know that beating Palace would effectively guarantee us Europa League next season.  My big fear is being in the Conference league again.  I want Champions League, but Europa wouldn't be a total disaster - and it's another realistic chance of a trophy, even if financially it's not as good.


https://www.premierleague.com/news/373663

Quote
If the FA Cup winners finish in the top five of the Premier League, their UEL league-phase place will go to the next-highest ranked team not qualified for UEFA competitions in the Premier League.

So if we beat Palace, we either qualify as FA Cup winners, or because Man City / Forest have beaten us in the final so sixth / seventh are both Europea League.

If Palace get to the final and lose, they don't get the spot - they used to, but UEFA said they didn't want runners up spoiling their competitions, so that was scrapped in 2016.

It was scrapped before 2016 as we'd have qualified in 2015 wouldn't we?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 25, 2025, 12:47:31 PM
Sorry, yes. 14/15 was the season it was removed. Hull were last to play in Europe thanks to being FA Cup runners-up in that 13/14 season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 25, 2025, 01:11:13 PM
It's a competition we should definitely be targeting to win which isn't the case with the CL. But our squad will be weaker if we're not in the CL and our revenue less. As it's 2025,  those things are more important than a trophy.

I imagine that everyone would prefer to finish fifth or higher rather than sixth or lower, but if the reality turns out to be Europa League then it shouldn't be seen as a disaster.

And if it is a disaster, then something has gone wrong somewhere because we shouldn't *now* be in a position where we're relying on Champions League qualification for our sustainability.

We're definitely not a club that finishes 4th/5th or higher from now for evermore. If we qualfiy this season we might miss out next season, or the season after that. So we need to put ourselves in a situation where Champions League qualification and what it brings is a bonus, not a necessity.

Yep and I think that CL point is key - if everything hinges on getting it this year then we’ve massively cocked up. It should be a welcome boost not the thing that makes us sink or swim.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dick Edwards on April 25, 2025, 01:16:52 PM
We were way off the pace for CL qualification in January when we brought in Malen, Asensio and Rashford so I’d like to think we weren’t counting on them guaranteeing a top five finish
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 26, 2025, 12:03:53 PM
Today
Chelsea v Everton
Newcastle v Ipswich

Thurs
Forest v Brentford

Fri
Man City v Wolves

Sat
Villa v Fulham

Sun
Brighton v Newcastle
Chelsea v Liverpool

Mon
Palace v Forest
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 26, 2025, 12:08:41 PM
FA Cup or Champions League qualification - which means more?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cddenz1yd52o
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Monty on April 26, 2025, 12:26:36 PM
FA Cup or Champions League qualification - which means more?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cddenz1yd52o

Cup for me. I know the hard-headed would likely be of a different, especially higher up in the club. But from my point of view football's not about the hard head but the big soft heart of the thing - I've seen us play in the Champions League, I loved it, I'd love to see it more often, but even my dad has never seen us win that damn pot. In any case, we want CL to keep us competitive in order to win trophies, so...let's win one of the feckers?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dante Lavelli on April 26, 2025, 02:26:00 PM
FA Cup or Champions League qualification - which means more?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cddenz1yd52o

Cup for me. I know the hard-headed would likely be of a different, especially higher up in the club. But from my point of view football's not about the hard head but the big soft heart of the thing - I've seen us play in the Champions League, I loved it, I'd love to see it more often, but even my dad has never seen us win that damn pot. In any case, we want CL to keep us competitive in order to win trophies, so...let's win one of the feckers?

Cup for me too.  CL qualification means more money but personally I wish it had less influence in the game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Martyn Smith on April 26, 2025, 04:59:53 PM
I just feel like this season has Europa all over it, league position and/or cup. It would be quite pleasing to play all three different UEFA competitions consecutively, albeit not in the most obvious order...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 26, 2025, 05:02:18 PM
Seems highly unlikely - we just need to try and win all our games and then see.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Martyn Smith on April 26, 2025, 05:06:20 PM
7th looks secure and that will be Europa as long as Palace don't win the cup. That is our motivation for Saturday. If we do get to the cup final we'll lose to Man City but we won't have to play them in the Europa League.

I've seen a few people say this, have you got a source for it? It would be good to know that beating Palace would effectively guarantee us Europa League next season.  My big fear is being in the Conference league again.  I want Champions League, but Europa wouldn't be a total disaster - and it's another realistic chance of a trophy, even if financially it's not as good.


https://www.premierleague.com/news/373663

Quote
If the FA Cup winners finish in the top five of the Premier League, their UEL league-phase place will go to the next-highest ranked team not qualified for UEFA competitions in the Premier League.

So if we beat Palace, we either qualify as FA Cup winners, or because Man City / Forest have beaten us in the final so sixth / seventh are both Europea League.

If Palace get to the final and lose, they don't get the spot - they used to, but UEFA said they didn't want runners up spoiling their competitions, so that was scrapped in 2016.

They didn't want runners up spoiling the competitions, said UEFA, offering *Champions* League places to teams finishing second to fifth...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on April 26, 2025, 06:45:09 PM
No. Sadly. From being confident just a week ago to literally being broken by the past two games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 26, 2025, 07:07:00 PM
If CL means the Conference League, quite likely.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 26, 2025, 07:08:32 PM
No. Sadly. From being confident just a week ago to literally being broken by the past two games.

Both down to Emery not thinking we can play like we do at home away. Performances and selections have been atrocious when he can rotate players at the moment.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 26, 2025, 07:09:20 PM
They really need to now. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 26, 2025, 08:25:22 PM
If Rashford is done we have to ensure we have a pacy wide player on one side - probably the right. Without it, we are so easy to play against.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on April 26, 2025, 08:27:42 PM
Aside from our club's need to win a trophy, that was also a route to guarantee Europa League. Honestly. I am so disgusted by today.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rougegorge on April 26, 2025, 08:27:58 PM
If CL means the Conference League, quite likely.
Yes, if Palace win the cup, then 7th place will be  Conference.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on April 26, 2025, 08:31:17 PM
Clutching at straws here, but hopefully today’s shambles will spur the players on to win the last 4 games.

Not feeling anywhere near as optimistic about things as I was a week or so ago, mind.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DC1874 on April 26, 2025, 08:39:20 PM
Yes if I'm on heroin - no in the real world
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on April 26, 2025, 08:39:57 PM
No.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: BoVillan esq on April 26, 2025, 08:41:29 PM
I'm in the minority here for thinking how vital it was we qualify for the CL, way more so than getting to the final of the FA Cup, another campaign in the CL would reinforce the clubs prestige across the world, bring in sheds loads of money, attract the right players to improve the squad further, just overall prestige for the club in general, very important games today , we needed Everton to at least drag Chelsea into a draw, and hope against hope that Ipswich fighting for survival could do the same at Newcastle, we got neither, we can't drop one point from here on in, plus we need Chelsea, Forest and maybe Newcastle to start losing, at least on of them, forget Man City.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Grande Pablo on April 26, 2025, 08:48:03 PM
I'm in the minority here for thinking how vital it was we qualify for the CL, way more so than getting to the final of the FA Cup, another campaign in the CL would reinforce the clubs prestige across the world, bring in sheds loads of money, attract the right players to improve the squad further, just overall prestige for the club in general, very important games today , we needed Everton to at least drag Chelsea into a draw, and hope against hope that Ipswich fighting for survival could do the same at Newcastle, we got neither, we can't drop one point from here on in, plus we need Chelsea, Forest and maybe Newcastle to start losing, at least on of them, forget Man City.

The cash alone is essential to our future PSR compliance & holding onto our best players.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 26, 2025, 08:51:43 PM
After so long of being utterly shit we shouldn't suddenly be up ourselves so much that we think the Europa or Conference are beneath us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 26, 2025, 08:51:59 PM
I think it’s essential beyond purely the financial side just to make the season not feel so flat.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 26, 2025, 09:01:53 PM
We absolutely have to attack the remaining games - there is zero point setting up like we did today. The bit that worries me is it made no sense today but we still did it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: BoVillan esq on April 26, 2025, 09:09:30 PM
We absolutely have to attack the remaining games - there is zero point setting up like we did today. The bit that worries me is it made no sense today but we still did it.

Exactly, we have to bin this weird approach of starting games at a snail's pace, what is that about?, happened again today, I actually think that caught Palace off guard, shocked that Villa where applying the same method they have been useless at doing all season long, think it took a good 30 mins before Palace realized we was there for the taking and then they did, we have shown even recently if we get out the blocks really fast and go at teams before they know it they are down a goal or pinned down.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Steve67 on April 26, 2025, 09:09:44 PM
After so long of being utterly shit we shouldn't suddenly be up ourselves so much that we think the Europa or Conference are beneath us.

I wouldn't mind another crack at the Conference.  I think we can win it.  Especially with this squad (probably less Rashford and Asensio).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ez on April 26, 2025, 09:34:36 PM
To be honest I wasn't much interested in the conference league last time so I doubt I will be if we're in it again especially if it impacts our league results.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 26, 2025, 09:35:31 PM
I wouldn’t want to be in the Conference League, I very much want Citeh to win the cup now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 26, 2025, 11:29:25 PM
Well after that utter abomination we’ve got 4 games Unai (better not use the word “final” ,even a semi-final, after today) that we have to win. No messing about - get us on the front foot - I don’t know if 4 wins will do it, but given recent results I’m pretty sure anything less won’t.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on April 26, 2025, 11:56:41 PM
Can someone please confirm what were we need to finish to get:
UCL
Eurpa
Conference League

Please
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on April 26, 2025, 11:58:15 PM
I wouldn’t want to be in the Conference League, I very much want Citeh to win the cup now.

Agreed. I feel a bit of a snobby ****** for thinking it, but sides like us shouldn't be in that competition in the first place.

Edit: That's not to say I didn't enjoy our first foray back into European football, but it would be some comedown now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 26, 2025, 11:59:10 PM
Champions League: top five
Europa League: sixth or seventh if Palace don't win the FA Cup
Conference League: seventh or eighth if Palace don't win the FA Cup
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 27, 2025, 12:00:03 AM
We'll be 4th going into the last game. A point will be enough. We go 2-0 up. They score 3 in the last 10 minutes, we finish 6th on GD. It's the Villaest thing we can do.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 27, 2025, 12:00:42 AM
And will prove once and for all that GD is worth a point.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on April 27, 2025, 12:02:58 AM
Champions League: top five
Europa League: sixth or seventh if Palace don't win the FA Cup
Conference League: seventh or eighth if Palace don't win the FA Cup
Thanks yuo - so English teams results that are still in Europe doesnt effect this.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 27, 2025, 12:04:25 AM
I'm not entirely sure how Chelsea winning the Conference League effects things if they don't qualify for the Champions League. Given their league positions, Arsenal, Man U and Tottenham make no odds.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 27, 2025, 12:07:28 AM
We now play Spurs 3 days before their final with Bilbao. Just need to beat Bournemouth away, and we can win our last four.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 27, 2025, 12:08:31 AM
They're playing Man U in the final. ****** always win. And obviously we won't be beating Man U. Champions League has gone.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 27, 2025, 12:25:40 AM
I hope today creates a feeling of resolve and bitterness so that we respond. I was worried PSG might knock the stuffing out of us, but our response was tremendous. Put a score of Fulham, then we have 3 games to roll the dice and who knows. We've got to swing for the rucking fence every game though. We're absolutely shite when we're cautious.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OzVilla on April 27, 2025, 12:52:40 AM
No. No other results are going our way which we need so I think it’s over. I think we’ve run our race tbh.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Cliftonville Villlain on April 27, 2025, 01:40:21 AM
I thought the 2 week break was outstanding management. Get them off to the sun, recharge the batteries and ready them for the final 6 weeks. No repeat of last year's run in. McGinn and Rashford ran the fucking show in the PSG second leg. Unai subs them and we go out. Today he picked the one side not to play against a team which has our number. And we were embarrassed. Rogers has been running on fumes all month, too much respect given to a sub-par City side, Mings nowhere to be seen in a game crying out for him, Malen is being criminally overlooked and our season is going to shit at the worst possible time. What Unai Emery has done for the Villa over the last two seasons has been absolutely sublime. But he has cost us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on April 27, 2025, 08:11:32 AM
I have been obsessing over other results for weeks. Looking at all the permutations and thinking we can make the top5.

But the FA cup was the one I really wanted. It was there for us to win.

After yesterday I couldn't care less anymore. What's the point if there is such a disconnect about the importance of winning trophies? If we were 17th and fighting against relegation i could sort of understand it  but a trophy is the thing missing.

The FA cup is why everybody knows Peter McParland in his 91st year. Will whoever is around in 60 years time really remember Jhon Duran as the player who scored the goal to finish 4th?

Yesterday is such a kick in the balls.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: wince on April 27, 2025, 08:26:40 AM
Agree with Villan82. Yesterday we had the best chance to win the FA cup but respect to cheat city and palace and we are left scrapping for the leftovers when we have done this to ourselves across the entire season. Not beating key sides this season will cost us big time and 25 years after our other chance this side of the moon landings we failed to turn up to Wembley. Even 10 years ago I knew we wouldn’t beat Arse but we battered Liverpool in the semi. For all the talk of trophies we squandered last year in Conference. Woven into our DNA, acrophobia or just plain shit, we should be winning things regularly.
Like many others I knew we wouldn’t win the CL but the FA cup is the one I want us to win. But I was 12 going on 13 last time we won major silverware. How long will we have to wait and be chasing European slots or top 8 finishes?
I love Emery but yesterday Palace played exactly the same as each time they tonked us and we fanny it around the back and invite pressure onto us all the time.

I said on the match thread they were playing us off the park. And they did because all they had to do was wait for us to tippy tippy it around and run at us.

Taking McGInn off, no Malen, no Mings is shite. When he is right he is right but yesterday there was no game plan at all. And the players looked bored.

Just sore today but he needs to make us invincible away from home as we turn into a wet napkin away from home.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ian. on April 27, 2025, 08:31:23 AM
We’re still in the hunt so we need to freshen up and just go for it now, we need the momentum going into next season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 27, 2025, 08:33:59 AM
I am with Villan82.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ian. on April 27, 2025, 08:37:37 AM
I’ll never forget Kent Nielsen’s screamer and jumping up and down like a looney in the old Trinity Road.

The game is all about moments.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 27, 2025, 08:50:27 AM
You know Palace will lose Forest now too to add insult to injury.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on April 27, 2025, 08:58:13 AM
This boat has sailed. We're playing Bodo Blimps on a Thursday night in -15 degree temperatures.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Des Little on April 27, 2025, 08:59:18 AM
You know Palace will lose Forest now too to add insult to injury.


I think I’d want a Forest win.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 27, 2025, 09:00:33 AM
I mean in the league
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 27, 2025, 09:07:11 AM
We basically need Brentford to beat Forest this week and Liverpool to beat Chelsea, and us to beat Fulham and we’re back in the race. Probably unlikely, but possible.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on April 27, 2025, 09:16:50 AM
Me too, but if we did somehow bag enough points to qualify for the Champions League again it would have to seen as a season of progress again.

I've just no faith that we will after watching that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 27, 2025, 09:26:30 AM
Me too, but if we did somehow bag enough points to qualify for the Champions League again it would have to seen as a season of progress again.

I've just no faith that we will after watching that.
Yes, another demonstration of how to spectacularly shoot your self in the foot when it matters.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 27, 2025, 09:52:46 AM
I said on another thread last week that, for all the undoubted excitement of some really special games at VP, this season could finish with us in the Conference League (you can call me a snob, but I'm not sure what the point of that actually is for us now), and most of the usual suspects in the CL.

I was pretty sure of us winning all of our remaining games before that last kick Man City goal went in.  I am struggling to see where our next win comes from now. 

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 27, 2025, 09:57:09 AM
That's because you're ruled by emotion by your own admission.

It comes next Saturday. We may as well ignore other results until the Man United game. Go into it on 66 points and see what happens. If it's the Europa League, oh well. I've never had more fun these past 2 years following us in Europe again.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 27, 2025, 10:09:22 AM
That's because you're ruled by emotion by your own admission.

It comes next Saturday. We may as well ignore other results until the Man United game. Go into it on 66 points and see what happens. If it's the Europa League, oh well. I've never had more fun these past 2 years following us in Europe again.

Guilty as charged.  I hope you're right. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on April 27, 2025, 10:28:42 AM
I’ll never forget Kent Nielsen’s screamer and jumping up and down like a looney in the old Trinity Road.

The game is all about moments.

That was the one and only time I hve ever placed a bet at a football match. I had £1 on him to score the first goal, at 28/1.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on April 27, 2025, 10:30:38 AM
How much did you win?!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on April 27, 2025, 02:24:00 PM
Will whoever is around in 60 years time really remember Jhon Duran as the player who scored the goal to finish 4th?



Maybe, because for some reason people think it now, even though he didn’t.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: john2710 on April 27, 2025, 02:32:34 PM
We're not beating Bournemouth nor Man U away.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 27, 2025, 02:33:53 PM
Won't bother buying my tickets then.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 27, 2025, 03:22:29 PM
How much did you win?!

No cashing-out back in 1990.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tokyo Sexwhale on April 27, 2025, 04:11:13 PM
The job remains the same - we have to win all 4 games for CL.  I think that will be enough given Newcastle, Forest and Chelsea have games against each other.

3 wins and a draw probably wouldn't be though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 27, 2025, 04:36:47 PM
This boat has sailed. We're playing Bodo Blimps on a Thursday night in -15 degree temperatures.

If it's in the Europa League rather than the Conference League, it will still be a good year.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: RamboandBruno on April 27, 2025, 04:38:50 PM
We're not beating Bournemouth nor Man U away.
Why not, because of yesterday? What about the week before smashing newcastle, or a couple of weeks earlier giving Brighton a pasting, beating Brentford away etc etc.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: john2710 on April 27, 2025, 06:56:57 PM
No because we've been mostly shit when playing away from Villa Park. There are, of course exceptions but in the main we've been slow, passive & created our own downfall more often than not. Yesterday was another example. Obviously I'd be delighted if we won, I just don't think we will.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: RamboandBruno on April 27, 2025, 07:05:12 PM
No because we've been mostly shit when playing away from Villa Park. There are, of course exceptions but in the main we've been slow, passive & created our own downfall more often than not. Yesterday was another example. Obviously I'd be delighted if we won, I just don't think we will.
Hard to argue with our seasons away form, but last three away games in the league, beat Brentford 1-0, beat Brighton 3-0, beat Southampton 3-0, if you include cup games in that, beat Preston 3-0, beat Brugges 3-1, lost to PSG 1-3.

If we can pick ourselves up for the Fulham and beat them, I fancy us to beat Bournemouth, especially if they lose their next match at Arsenal.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: London Villan on April 27, 2025, 07:15:18 PM
All with a solid defence…
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SaddVillan on April 27, 2025, 10:00:52 PM
https://x.com/johntownley11/status/1916588639552770190?s=08

AVFC have written to the Premier League to emphatically reject Tottenham’s request to bring forward their fixture at Villa Park next month.

Understand Spurs wanted the game to be played on Thursday, May 15, to allow more time to prepare for a possible Europa League final.

Spurs can do one.

The Prem hasn't helped anybody else. They'd better not start now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 27, 2025, 10:11:29 PM
No thanks.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on April 28, 2025, 11:30:02 AM
Can Matt Cash send the email to Spurs which tells them to piss off?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Duncan Shaw on April 28, 2025, 01:31:13 PM
I've just done one of those predictor things.  We have to win all four games to have any chance, anything less won't do, so I put that in for us and tried to be a scientific as I could for the others, and I had us finishing 4th.  All we can do it pick wor selves up, dust wor selves down, roll up wor sleeves and try and win them all.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tokyo Sexwhale on April 28, 2025, 01:48:28 PM
I've just done one of those predictor things.  We have to win all four games to have any chance, anything less won't do, so I put that in for us and tried to be a scientific as I could for the others, and I had us finishing 4th.  All we can do it pick wor selves up, dust wor selves down, roll up wor sleeves and try and win them all.

4 wins will almost certainly be enough because Chelsea play Newcastle and Forest; and it's unlikely that all 3 of them will win all of their remaining games.

Of course it's not likely that we'll win all 4 of ours, but it is at least not unthinkable.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: amfy on April 28, 2025, 01:58:49 PM
I just saw a headline in Facebook that Newcastle have been dealt a season ending injury blow, & then read that it was Matty Targett! 🙄
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 28, 2025, 02:00:12 PM
Haha, beware of clickbait! I nearly got lured in today by something implying Ange had been sacked.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 28, 2025, 02:38:55 PM
Just need to beat Fulham first, and see where we are after the weekend's fixtures. Forest dropping 4 or 5 points in the next two and a Brighton win, would leave things looking a lot rosier.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 28, 2025, 02:44:44 PM
Forest are catchable. The rest aren't. Sixth at best.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on April 28, 2025, 02:50:57 PM
Chelsea aren't catchable?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 28, 2025, 02:51:42 PM
Nope. 70 points to our 64.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 28, 2025, 02:52:07 PM
Forest are catchable. The rest aren't. Sixth at best.

I've long been of the opinion that we were unlikely to finish in the top five, and that opinion hasn't changed - but it's hardly crazy to think that we can't finish a win and a draw better from games against Fulham, Bournemouth, Spurs and Man Utd than Chelsea will against Liverpool, Newcastle Man Utd and Forest.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 28, 2025, 02:53:18 PM
Man U will only win one domestic game this season and we all know which one it will be. Chelsea won't be playing Liverpool, they'll be playing Liverpool reserves.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 28, 2025, 02:55:10 PM
Nope. 70 points to our 64.
67?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 28, 2025, 02:57:57 PM
No. Not according to the official figures.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 28, 2025, 03:07:00 PM
I think Chelsea will do well to get to 67 points never mind 70. Even to do that, they'll be taking points off Forest and Newcastle.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: amfy on April 28, 2025, 03:15:40 PM
Chelsea are 3 points ahead of us and have the toughest run in.
If they win all their games they take down Forest and Newcastle.
It's the amount of playing each other amongst our rivals that actually gives me a bit of hope.
We need to do our thing though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 28, 2025, 03:20:48 PM
No. Not according to the official figures.

Your ones that said we'd only get a point from Newcastle?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 28, 2025, 03:24:36 PM
Chelsea v Forest on the final day could be the game. A win may suit either side but a draw could leave them both struggling...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tokyo Sexwhale on April 28, 2025, 03:31:35 PM
4 wins gives us 69 points.

For our rivals to get to 69 points:

Newcastle need 2 wins and a draw against Brighton (a), Chelsea (h), Arsenal (a), Everton (h)
Man City need 2 wins and 2 draws against Wolves (h), Southampton (a), Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)
Chelsea need 3 wins against Liverpool (h), Newcastle (a), Man Utd (h), Forest (a)
Forest need 3 wins against Brentford (h), Palace (a), Leicester (h), West Ham (a), Chelsea (h)

I think we can assume Man City are going to do it, so that leaves 4 teams battling for 2 CL spots.

Forest have 3 winnable games - possibly 4, so their final game against Chelsea may be irrelevant.  We need them to have a drop off.

Newcastle have tricky games, but they're good at home.  So they'd need to pick up a point against Brighton or Arsenal (who will be resting for the CL if they get to the Final or will be on the beach if they don't).

I think Chelsea have the toughest run, and games against Newcastle and Forest.  I don't think they'll make Top 5.

So I think we need to win all 4 games, and hope for Newcastle to slip up; as I think Man City and Forest will get 2 of the 3 remaining spots.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 28, 2025, 03:43:46 PM
No. Not according to the official figures.

Your ones that said we'd only get a point from Newcastle?

Yes, they have since been revised so they are still correct.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 28, 2025, 03:47:05 PM
Will Forest be hungover against Brentford?

Will Chelsea get results against Newcastle and Forest?

Can Everton win away in Scotland?

All pivotal but it's all reliant on us winning all 4, anything less and we won't make top 5.

I predict we'll end up 6th, or mathematically out of it by the final day and completely shit the bed v ManU up there.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on April 28, 2025, 03:49:14 PM
We'll completely shit the bed v ManU anyway whatever happens between now and then.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on April 28, 2025, 03:53:28 PM
Forest are in exactly the same boat as us.
They are desperate for their brilliant season to not end in failure, by not qualifying for the CL.

I am sure they will be  absolutely shit or bust in their remaining games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tokyo Sexwhale on April 28, 2025, 03:53:44 PM
If Spurs and Man U are in the EL Final, that should help us.

I actually think our key game is Bournemouth away, that's the one we're most likely to slip up in.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tokyo Sexwhale on April 28, 2025, 03:56:59 PM
Forest are in exactly the same boat as us.
They are desperate for their brilliant season to not end in failure, by not qualifying for the CL.

I am sure they will be  absolutely shit or bust in their remaining games.

They almost certainly will get 3 wins though.  Leicester and West Ham are gimmes; Palace will be keeping their powder dry for the Cup Final; and Brentford and Chelsea at home are winnable too.

They'd have to have a major meltdown not to get 3 wins. Of course it's possible they don't, but I think that it's more likely they achieve it, than we get 4 wins.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Paul.S on April 28, 2025, 04:01:50 PM
Saturday’s game is the key. Win and it generates confidence, belief and puts pressure on those above.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 28, 2025, 04:28:54 PM
We'll completely shit the bed v ManU anyway whatever happens between now and then.

We just need to tell them we'll sign Rashy if we get Champions League. Job done.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 28, 2025, 04:59:54 PM
I stick with my previous position, if we win all 4 and don’t finish top 5 then fair play to whoever does.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on April 28, 2025, 05:47:21 PM
I stick with my previous position, if we win all 4 and don’t finish top 5 then fair play to whoever does.

I think if that happened and Man Utd/Spurs win the Europa League it will finish me off.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 28, 2025, 06:18:53 PM
I’m still hoping Bilbao hammer them both.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on April 28, 2025, 06:30:55 PM
I stick with my previous position, if we win all 4 and don’t finish top 5 then fair play to whoever does.

I think if that happened and Man Utd/Spurs win the Europa League it will finish me off.
would that mean 5th doesn’t get CL?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 28, 2025, 06:38:02 PM
Nope

Would just be annoying on it's own terms
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 28, 2025, 07:03:28 PM
I’m still hoping Bilbao hammer them both.

You want spurs in the final?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Nii Lamptey on April 28, 2025, 07:30:26 PM
I don't want either of them in the final. Winner sneaks into the Champions League via the backdoor.

Need to keep them both on a tighter financial leash.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 28, 2025, 07:35:48 PM
I’m still hoping Bilbao hammer them both.

You want spurs in the final?

Not want, but suspect it’s reasonably likely. As long as they lose I don’t really care.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on April 28, 2025, 08:26:26 PM
Is it possible that finishing 7th could see us into the Conference League?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 28, 2025, 08:28:32 PM
I’m still hoping Bilbao hammer them both.

You want spurs in the final?

Not want, but suspect it’s reasonably likely. As long as they lose I don’t really care.

Playing them 3 days before a final might well work to our advantage. Once there, I hope Bilbao stuff them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 28, 2025, 08:31:15 PM
Is it possible that finishing 7th could see us into the Conference League?

Yes, if Palace win the cup.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 28, 2025, 08:31:23 PM
Is it possible that finishing 7th could see us into the Conference League?

Yes if Palace win the cup.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on April 28, 2025, 08:35:27 PM
Thanks. Bloody hell.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: BoVillan esq on April 28, 2025, 08:58:57 PM
I stick with my previous position, if we win all 4 and don’t finish top 5 then fair play to whoever does.

Agree, we win all 4, just a bit of luck with other results, not asking for the complete melt down of Chelsea or Forest, Newcastle, but these sides are going to clash, it could be done even now, not out of this by a country mile, if Forest don't get a result vs Brentford, Man City stumble v Wolves, we beat Fulham that top 5 will look very different, even at this late stage. Newcastle at Brighton. it can still be done.

This weekend is massive, if these other top 7 sides blink then a couple have to still face each other, we are in the mix. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 28, 2025, 09:19:48 PM
Is it ungrateful not to want Europe if it means Conference League?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 28, 2025, 09:21:35 PM
I don't want Europe if it's not the Champions League. Regroup, and do better next season like Newcastle have.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on April 28, 2025, 09:22:32 PM
Conf League is best avoided . Waste of space tournament for us .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 28, 2025, 09:27:16 PM
We earned about £10m from the conference league last time. That's better than nothing. It also helps to maintain profile of being involved in Europe. Win it and we get Europa etc too.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on April 28, 2025, 09:28:57 PM
Is it ungrateful not to want Europe if it means Conference League?

It's not really a case of being grateful or ungrateful. My own view is that being in the Conference League next season would be a bad thing for us, we really don't need it, either as a competition in itself or to help our progression.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on April 28, 2025, 09:30:13 PM
We earned about £10m from the conference league last time. That's better than nothing. It also helps to maintain profile of being involved in Europe. Win it and we get Europa etc too.
that was the plan last time which drained us on other fronts . 1615 KO's in Moldova  etc can FRO .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 28, 2025, 09:31:12 PM
Because famously mid-week games against Bayern Munich, PSG, Juve etc have been at a much lower intensity.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 28, 2025, 09:39:53 PM
I want Champions League, but wouldn’t mind Europa.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on April 28, 2025, 09:59:59 PM
I want Champions League, but wouldn’t mind Europa.

Winner of Europa gets in CL, with our manager’s record in that competition we’d fancy our chances…we all know what would happen next!!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 28, 2025, 10:00:46 PM
I'd have fancied us to win it this year with the shite in it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on April 28, 2025, 10:02:05 PM
I'd have fancied us to win it this year with the shite in it.

It certainly helps that CL teams no longer drop down into it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on April 28, 2025, 10:08:52 PM
I'd have fancied us to win it this year with the shite in it.

It certainly helps that CL teams no longer drop down into it.
Pretty certain we could be in a final against an under 11s side and still not win any silverware.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 28, 2025, 10:19:51 PM
I want Champions League, but wouldn’t mind Europa.

I'd be happy with Europa League as long as we win the F......
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 28, 2025, 10:59:39 PM
We've a stronger squad now than we had a year ago, and it will hopefully be stronger still next. We will win something.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 28, 2025, 11:04:38 PM
We've a stronger squad now than we had a year ago, and it will hopefully be stronger still next. We will win something.

Yeah, remember it took Klopp 3.5 years to win his first trophy with Liverpool, and 4.5 years to win his first domestic trophy.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 28, 2025, 11:22:12 PM
If it's to be the Europa League at least we might win it. It's the Don's specialist competition, we're not winning the CL while the Conference is Blose once you've been in it and then moved-up two levels.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on April 28, 2025, 11:58:37 PM
Obviously I’d choose them in order of prestige - CL, EL then Conference. And I’d definitely prefer the Conference to no European football at all. Pretty sure we’d end our trophy drought and me and the kids would be able to get tickets.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dick Edwards on April 29, 2025, 07:42:35 AM
Only two years ago we were thrilled at the prospect of qualifying for the Conference League. Our ambitions have been raised after our CL adventures this season but if we make a Europa League spot it'll still be a significant achievement.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 29, 2025, 07:48:40 AM
We've a stronger squad now than we had a year ago, and it will hopefully be stronger still next. We will win something.

I wish I had your optimism. It's not like we all get a turn.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 29, 2025, 07:51:24 AM
We've a stronger squad now than we had a year ago, and it will hopefully be stronger still next. We will win something.

I wish I had your optimism. It's not like we all get a turn.

Clubs with great managers, players, infrastructure and teams do.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Marlon From Bearwood on April 29, 2025, 08:08:14 AM
Have we really gone from being desperate for any kind of European football two years ago to now turning our noses up at anything that isn’t the champions league?

Personally I’d rather win a trophy before I’d start dismissing any competitions.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 29, 2025, 08:08:28 AM
I get that this is your coping mechanism but it ain't necessarily so. Given how few teams win honours these days it's not too controversial to posit that we may not. Truth of the matter is that no one knows, so it can't be stated as fact either way.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on April 29, 2025, 08:09:13 AM
I was replying to Drummond, to be clear.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 29, 2025, 09:18:35 AM
We've a stronger squad now than we had a year ago, and it will hopefully be stronger still next. We will win something.

I wish I had your optimism. It's not like we all get a turn.

Clubs with great managers, players, infrastructure and teams do.

Loads of decent teams have won fuck all. Newcastle in the 90s, Tottenham 2010s, Villa early 1930s, off the top of my head. We are much less likely than Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man U to win a trophy next season, as is pretty much always the case.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 29, 2025, 09:57:09 AM
Yes we're less likely to, but our turn will come.

It's not a coping strategy, it's a fundamental belief. These owners and this manager don't fail.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 29, 2025, 09:58:03 AM
Have we really gone from being desperate for any kind of European football two years ago to now turning our noses up at anything that isn’t the champions league?

Personally I’d rather win a trophy before I’d start dismissing any competitions.

Yup, this all over.

It's not impossible that the last couple of seasons are the high watermark for this team. We wouldn't be the first team to look really good for a couple of years, everyone is talking about us pushing higher and then something happens that squeezes us out of the picture. All it takes is for a couple of teams to improve a bit and for us to get a bit worse and we're talking about 7th-12th.

Considering any sort of European competition as beneath us is just entitled bullshit. It's Veruca Salt crying because her daddy wouldn't buy her a bigger pony.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on April 29, 2025, 09:59:25 AM
I am happy to be playing in any European competition, it's just that the Champions League comes with enormous amounts of money (and glamour), whereas the others do not, so there's a bit of a drop off from the CL to Europa and Conference.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: darren woolley on April 29, 2025, 10:03:20 AM
I'm also happy to be playing any European football if we can't get Champions League football.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brend'Watkins on April 29, 2025, 10:12:33 AM
Europa would be okay, Conference wouldn’t. Qtr finalists of the CL to Conference, it’s very like European relegation to me. I might attend the latter stages if we got that far.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Steve67 on April 29, 2025, 10:41:36 AM
Have we really gone from being desperate for any kind of European football two years ago to now turning our noses up at anything that isn’t the champions league?

Personally I’d rather win a trophy before I’d start dismissing any competitions.

Yup, this all over.

It's not impossible that the last couple of seasons are the high watermark for this team. We wouldn't be the first team to look really good for a couple of years, everyone is talking about us pushing higher and then something happens that squeezes us out of the picture. All it takes is for a couple of teams to improve a bit and for us to get a bit worse and we're talking about 7th-12th.

Considering any sort of European competition as beneath us is just entitled bullshit. It's Veruca Salt crying because her daddy wouldn't buy her a bigger pony.


Couldn’t agree more. People need to remember how bad things have been over the last 10 years or more.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Des Little on April 29, 2025, 10:57:14 AM
Europa would be okay, Conference wouldn’t. Qtr finalists of the CL to Conference, it’s very like European relegation to me. I might attend the latter stages if we got that far.

Same, depending on our Chris' pricing
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 29, 2025, 11:14:09 AM
When the players drop the inferiority complex displayed last Tuesday, the fans will be quick to follow suit.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 29, 2025, 11:22:26 AM
Couldn’t agree more. People need to remember how bad things have been over the last 10 years or more.

They're the sort of people who would have wanted Saunders out in 1979 and 1980, because we'd dropped down to 8th and 7th and weren't playing in Europe.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 29, 2025, 11:39:20 AM
Have we really gone from being desperate for any kind of European football two years ago to now turning our noses up at anything that isn’t the champions league?

Personally I’d rather win a trophy before I’d start dismissing any competitions.

Yup, this all over.

It's not impossible that the last couple of seasons are the high watermark for this team. We wouldn't be the first team to look really good for a couple of years, everyone is talking about us pushing higher and then something happens that squeezes us out of the picture. All it takes is for a couple of teams to improve a bit and for us to get a bit worse and we're talking about 7th-12th.

Considering any sort of European competition as beneath us is just entitled bullshit. It's Veruca Salt crying because her daddy wouldn't buy her a bigger pony.

I think that's unfair.  If we want to compete at an elite level - and the way we have performed this year in the CL shows that's where we actually belong - seeing the Conference League as a bit of a booby prize isn't as outrageous as you say in my view.

Even the Europa League, though clearly a step up from the Conference, is a bit of a poor cousin.  You can argue about whether that is right, but it's clearly the way things are.

As a way back in to playing in Europe, the Conference was a good thing two seasons ago.  I don't agree it's 'entitlement' that makes some fans less than thrilled at the prospect of doing so again next year, especially if we miss out on CL by a point or two (or even bloody goal difference!). 

Playing in the Conference just wouldn't excite me very much after seeing what we can do with this manager and the kinds of players we can attract and retain by playing in the CL.  At least the Europa would be a new competition.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 29, 2025, 11:42:41 AM
Have we really gone from being desperate for any kind of European football two years ago to now turning our noses up at anything that isn’t the champions league?

Personally I’d rather win a trophy before I’d start dismissing any competitions.

Yup, this all over.

It's not impossible that the last couple of seasons are the high watermark for this team. We wouldn't be the first team to look really good for a couple of years, everyone is talking about us pushing higher and then something happens that squeezes us out of the picture. All it takes is for a couple of teams to improve a bit and for us to get a bit worse and we're talking about 7th-12th.

Considering any sort of European competition as beneath us is just entitled bullshit. It's Veruca Salt crying because her daddy wouldn't buy her a bigger pony.


Couldn’t agree more. People need to remember how bad things have been over the last 10 years or more.

I get the point about context, but when are we allowed to stop comparing everything to 2015/26?  There has to be a point where the club moves on from that utter shit show.   
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 29, 2025, 11:45:10 AM
We've won 1 European trophy. We've reached the quarter finals of the European cup twice since then, the quarter finals of the now Europa League once and the semi finals of the Conference League. The idea that we're too good for Europe is utter bullshit.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 29, 2025, 11:55:04 AM
We've won 1 European trophy. We've reached the quarter finals of the European cup twice since then, the quarter finals of the now Europa League once and the semi finals of the Conference League. The idea that we're too good for Europe is utter bullshit.

Not sure if that’s aimed at me, but I certainly didn’t say we’re "too good" for anything.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 29, 2025, 12:20:58 PM
Aimed at anybody who thinks we're better off out of Europe, despite almost every domestic trophy/the title for the past 20 years having been won by a side in Europe.

Portsmouth, Swansea, Wigan, Small Heath, Leicester and Newcastle v the other 54 (forgot the Geordies, so much for recency bias).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on April 29, 2025, 12:23:34 PM
It's not a case of us being 'too good' for the Conference, or that some of us have developed a sense of entitlement, it's simply that the Conference is a rubbish competition, and a drain on team resources, Thursday games mean fewer Saturday games, and ending up in it next season would be a decent indication that this season has not been a particularly good one.

I should perhaps add, I'm not advocating that we should deliberately set out to finish 8th rather than 7th, in order to avoid going into it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 29, 2025, 12:36:31 PM
Rubbish how? Last year it was brilliant following the team, with the bigger squad we have now we'd cope with it and actually have a good chance of winning it. It won't be possible to qualify for it in any event, even if we miss out on CL football.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 29, 2025, 12:41:03 PM
7th, FAC SF, EC QF, is a good season. Our best since 1996 or maybe 2000 at a push. While we could feel disappointed that it 'fizzled out' it doesn't diminsh what we've done.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chip Butty 111 on April 29, 2025, 12:45:01 PM
For us to qualify for the CL a lot of things would need to go in our favour, and we'd need to get the monkey off our back regards the annual no show at Old Trafford. If it's the Europa league so be it, decent teams visiting Villa Park and cheaper tickets than CL games...you would hope. We need 5 or 6 seasons in the top 6 of the PL to establish ourselves properly as a European outfit IMO..
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 29, 2025, 12:57:39 PM
I'd fancy us strongly this time at Old Trafford for a whole host of reasons.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 29, 2025, 01:03:11 PM
It's not a case of us being 'too good' for the Conference, or that some of us have developed a sense of entitlement, it's simply that the Conference is a rubbish competition, and a drain on team resources, Thursday games mean fewer Saturday games, and ending up in it next season would be a decent indication that this season has not been a particularly good one.

I would argue that if you see (having qualified for the rebranded version once in our history) any outcome worse than Champions League qualification from now on as "not a particularly good" season, you're likely to find youself disappointed in the club more often than you're happy with it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on April 29, 2025, 01:25:20 PM
It's not a case of us being 'too good' for the Conference, or that some of us have developed a sense of entitlement, it's simply that the Conference is a rubbish competition, and a drain on team resources, Thursday games mean fewer Saturday games, and ending up in it next season would be a decent indication that this season has not been a particularly good one.

I would argue that if you see (having qualified for the rebranded version once in our history) any outcome worse than Champions League qualification from now on as "not a particularly good" season, you're likely to find youself disappointed in the club more often than you're happy with it.

We finished 5th in 96-97, one of our best seasons in the modern era, but it still felt a bit shit after the year before.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 29, 2025, 01:42:42 PM
When we look back on this season, I hope it's viewed as being disappointing, because that'll mean we're winning stuff and finishing higher in the table in future.

Right now, I'm still thoroughly disappointed in Saturday's result. I'm still gutted about PSG. I'm pissed off we didn't try harder in the League Cup. And I'm rueing the fact that we could be higher in the league, but ultimately, when we look back at where we've been since 1983, this ranks up there as one of the better seasons. We just need to bloody win something again.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on April 29, 2025, 01:46:54 PM
We've won 1 European trophy. We've reached the quarter finals of the European cup twice since then, the quarter finals of the now Europa League once and the semi finals of the Conference League. The idea that we're too good for Europe is utter bullshit.

Hear hear.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 29, 2025, 02:02:22 PM
Rubbish how? Last year it was brilliant following the team, with the bigger squad we have now we'd cope with it and actually have a good chance of winning it. It won't be possible to qualify for it in any event, even if we miss out on CL football.

Rubbish in that Chelsea play their second-string, broadcasters aren't arsed with it and you're up against third-rate teams from second-rate leagues. It's always on Thursdays, neutrals forget who's in it and your team is fucked on the Sunday (unless you have 40 players like Chelsea). Europa League, sure, let's do it and win it. Conference, been there, nearly did it and it nearly stopped-us from qualifying for the Champions League. Best avoided.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 29, 2025, 02:16:19 PM
It's not a case of us being 'too good' for the Conference, or that some of us have developed a sense of entitlement, it's simply that the Conference is a rubbish competition, and a drain on team resources, Thursday games mean fewer Saturday games, and ending up in it next season would be a decent indication that this season has not been a particularly good one.

I would argue that if you see (having qualified for the rebranded version once in our history) any outcome worse than Champions League qualification from now on as "not a particularly good" season, you're likely to find youself disappointed in the club more often than you're happy with it.

We finished 5th in 96-97, one of our best seasons in the modern era, but it still felt a bit shit after the year before.

And it took 27 years to finish as high as that again. Saturday was a disaster, but we've had absolutely plenty. Anybody turning their nose up at Europe, thinking this is a poor season has a memory as small as Small Heath's trophy cabinet.

And to those turning their nose up at the Conference League (not that we'll be in it) I quote Konsa; "shut up JJ you twat".
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TheToffnar on April 29, 2025, 03:20:03 PM
I'll start believing if the results this weekend favor us. Either way I think it all comes down to the final day, really not looking forward to that...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 29, 2025, 03:25:20 PM
JJ is a bit dumb (see his recent SkySports vid with Rogers) but I don't think he'll want to play in the European Vauxhall again.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 29, 2025, 03:29:28 PM
It's not a case of us being 'too good' for the Conference, or that some of us have developed a sense of entitlement, it's simply that the Conference is a rubbish competition, and a drain on team resources, Thursday games mean fewer Saturday games, and ending up in it next season would be a decent indication that this season has not been a particularly good one.

I would argue that if you see (having qualified for the rebranded version once in our history) any outcome worse than Champions League qualification from now on as "not a particularly good" season, you're likely to find youself disappointed in the club more often than you're happy with it.

We finished 5th in 96-97, one of our best seasons in the modern era, but it still felt a bit shit after the year before.

Yup.  If we end up in the Conference League, with the cup runs we've had, it will have been a good season with some amazing moments.  But it won't have been as good an outcome as last season, so will be tinged with feelings of 'nearly but not quite', which is consistent with a good few other seasons I can remember (MON I'm looking at you mate!).  I don't know why anybody would be indignant about fans feeling potential mild disappointment, in the context of what we could've achieved, in the event of a 7th place finish and Conference League? 

Anyway, my disappointment from the weekend is fading and confidence (blind optimism) is returning.  5th IS ON (hopefully)!

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on April 29, 2025, 03:31:12 PM
JJ is a bit dumb (see his recent SkySports vid with Rogers) but I don't think he'll want to play in the European Vauxhall again.

He's under contract, he doesn't have a choice.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 29, 2025, 03:35:27 PM
Anyone who thinks the Conference league is shit and not worth it, can give me their ticket when we reach the Final, I'll even pay face value.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brend'Watkins on April 29, 2025, 03:37:20 PM
It's not a case of us being 'too good' for the Conference, or that some of us have developed a sense of entitlement, it's simply that the Conference is a rubbish competition, and a drain on team resources, Thursday games mean fewer Saturday games, and ending up in it next season would be a decent indication that this season has not been a particularly good one.

I would argue that if you see (having qualified for the rebranded version once in our history) any outcome worse than Champions League qualification from now on as "not a particularly good" season, you're likely to find youself disappointed in the club more often than you're happy with it.

We finished 5th in 96-97, one of our best seasons in the modern era, but it still felt a bit shit after the year before.

And it took 27 years to finish as high as that again. Saturday was a disaster, but we've had absolutely plenty. Anybody turning their nose up at Europe, thinking this is a poor season has a memory as small as Small Heath's trophy cabinet.

And to those turning their nose up at the Conference League (not that we'll be in it) I quote Konsa; "shut up JJ you twat".

European nights under the lights at VP does not conjure up images of Lincoln Imps of Gibraltar or TNS of Oswestry. Personally, I'd rather not be in it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on April 29, 2025, 03:37:58 PM
All I know is that if next season we are playing the likes Bačka Topola, I will not be able to gee myself up for it. I know that makes me snobbish considering where we were under Gerrard, but I won't be able to change my gut reaction.

The Europa League is at least more prestigious and another way into the Champions League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on April 29, 2025, 03:39:58 PM
I quite like seeing teams from mad countries like that. Just convinced we'd win it because we're bottlers and worry it could inhibit our chances of qualifying for the Champions League. Plus... hate Sunday matched. I'd still be attending matches if we qualify though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 29, 2025, 03:43:50 PM
So are you all saying you wouldn't go to Villa v Dortmund tie? They currently hold the Conf League Sport in Germany. Lyon/Nice in France, Osasuna in Spain, Roma in Italy......Alkmaar or Twente in Netherlands..... Besiktas in Turkey.

There are decent teams going to be in it. It's European Football under the lights. It may even be Hibernian again, or Aberdeen.

It's not the same as Bayern, PSG and Juve, but's not too dissimilar to Celtic, Brugge and Bologna.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 29, 2025, 03:44:30 PM
Best European game of the past two seasons was in a cage at a single sided ground that you only got to by turning Frankfurt Airport into Birmingham on Sea.

We won't qualify for it, but I'd not turn my nose up at the chance to make more life long memories.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on April 29, 2025, 03:44:39 PM
Final venues for 2026 are,,,,,

European Cup:         Puskas Arena, Budapest, Hungary. 67k
Uefa Cup :               Besiktas Park, Istanbul, Turkey.  42k
Cup Winners Cup:    RB Arena, Leipzig, Germany  45k

For 2027
EC:       Maybe San Siro but not confirmed. 71.5k
UC :      Stadion Frankfurt, Frankfurt, Germany. 58k
CWC:    Besiktas Park, Istanbul, Turkey.  42k

So we have two attempts at getting "our night in Istanbul" moment.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on April 29, 2025, 03:47:45 PM
I can see Villa Park being used for a Final again when the North is extended.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 29, 2025, 04:34:07 PM
I don't know why anybody would be indignant about fans feeling potential mild disappointment, in the context of what we could've achieved, in the event of a 7th place finish and Conference League? 

Mild disappointment is perfectly understandable. I'd say that medium or even mature disappointment would also be a reasonable reaction. If we'd finished second in the league and losing finalists in the Champions League, people would still have had justifiable grounds to feel disappointed even if it had been one of the best seasons in the last forty years.

However thinking that a competition that we would have been too shit to even think about for most of this century is now "a waste of space tournament" is exactly the sort of toss you'd expect from Man Utd or Chelsea fans.

As someone else alluded to further up the thread, maybe when we've actually won a trophy of some sort we can start being sniffy about which ones we're too important to bother with.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on April 29, 2025, 05:09:17 PM
So are you all saying you wouldn't go to Villa v Dortmund tie? They currently hold the Conf League Sport in Germany. Lyon/Nice in France, Osasuna in Spain, Roma in Italy......Alkmaar or Twente in Netherlands..... Besiktas in Turkey.

Roma would be cool. Great city, and we could wave Lazio shirts at them to wind them up. It's very effective in European ties, apparently.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tony Daleys Shorts on April 29, 2025, 05:29:15 PM
I don't know why anybody would be indignant about fans feeling potential mild disappointment, in the context of what we could've achieved, in the event of a 7th place finish and Conference League? 

Mild disappointment is perfectly understandable. I'd say that medium or even mature disappointment would also be a reasonable reaction. If we'd finished second in the league and losing finalists in the Champions League, people would still have had justifiable grounds to feel disappointed even if it had been one of the best seasons in the last forty years.

However thinking that a competition that we would have been too shit to even think about for most of this century is now "a waste of space tournament" is exactly the sort of toss you'd expect from Man Utd or Chelsea fans.

As someone else alluded to further up the thread, maybe when we've actually won a trophy of some sort we can start being sniffy about which ones we're too important to bother with.

Absolutely correct. I’m amazed at some of what I’m reading. One season in The Champions League in 41 years and the Conference league is beneath us?! Do me a favour.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aldridgeboy on April 29, 2025, 05:53:49 PM
I don't know why anybody would be indignant about fans feeling potential mild disappointment, in the context of what we could've achieved, in the event of a 7th place finish and Conference League? 

Mild disappointment is perfectly understandable. I'd say that medium or even mature disappointment would also be a reasonable reaction. If we'd finished second in the league and losing finalists in the Champions League, people would still have had justifiable grounds to feel disappointed even if it had been one of the best seasons in the last forty years.

However thinking that a competition that we would have been too shit to even think about for most of this century is now "a waste of space tournament" is exactly the sort of toss you'd expect from Man Utd or Chelsea fans.

As someone else alluded to further up the thread, maybe when we've actually won a trophy of some sort we can start being sniffy about which ones we're too important to bother with.

Absolutely this
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on April 29, 2025, 06:41:14 PM
From another perspective, posters are being told that they're speaking 'toss' or being 'twats' for being honest about how they wouldn't be as excited about the Conference League as a) they might've been 2 years ago and b) because we've had a taste back in the big time.  I'm not sure it's altogether fair, but I'll stop trying to make the same point now.



Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on April 29, 2025, 06:54:09 PM
Conf League is a big no for me . Drains the resources with too many extra games , League Games moved all over the place . Just Focus on the Domestics .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on April 29, 2025, 07:08:15 PM
Chelsea basically had one team for Premier League and another for Conference League. You don't drain the resources if you do that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on April 29, 2025, 07:13:09 PM
And if that's what's being recommended we do, and easier said than done anyway, it says everything that needs to be said about the value of the competition.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on April 29, 2025, 07:14:24 PM
The competition is fine, but it shouldn’t be for the likes of us or Chelsea who are massively over resourced.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on April 29, 2025, 07:39:29 PM
The tournament was designed for smaller nations for their teams to have a go .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 29, 2025, 07:45:17 PM
The tournament was designed for smaller nations for their teams to have a go .

It was designed so that there were another hundred odd games per season for UEFA to sell television rights for.

But if you want to put a bit of sporting integrity in there, it was designed for teams other than the same old, same old to get to play European football.

We still very much fall into that category.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: frank black on April 29, 2025, 07:48:46 PM
Conference league is rubbish, it was a novelty for us at the time. But now we’ve had a taste of a real quality European competition, it’s not a contest I want us to take part in again. Play the kids (and Olsen)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 29, 2025, 07:56:50 PM
I want us to be in the Champions League. I don't envisage a scenario likely for us to play in the Conference League, but I'd rather be in that than nothing else. Following the Villa in Europe is class, even if you have to go to absolute backwaters like Ajax, Lille, Olympiacos.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on April 29, 2025, 08:07:45 PM
Also, whilst it’s not mega important any Euro competition helps with the Clubs coefficient. We only got an extra 10 pts I think for CL QF over the ECL Semi so from my perspective even if the competition isn’t as prestigious keeping that number ticking over is important imv. Not least because there’s extra revenue to be had in UEfAs value pillar from continued European qualification. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SamTheMouse on April 29, 2025, 08:13:28 PM
Some Europe is always better than no Europe. I cannot for the life of me see how anyone could think otherwise.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 29, 2025, 08:37:39 PM
I think we need a poll on Conference participation.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on April 29, 2025, 08:38:07 PM
UEFA created the competition in order to offer European competition for more clubs and have more representation from associations that might not qualify for the group stages of the Champions League or Europa League.
Basically a tournament for the likes of Scotland, Bosnia and Azerbaijan. Not for Premier League Clubs who are in the Deloitte world top 20 biggest clubs .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on April 30, 2025, 01:57:48 AM
UEFA created the competition in order to offer European competition for more clubs and have more representation from associations that might not qualify for the group stages of the Champions League or Europa League.
Basically a tournament for the likes of Scotland, Bosnia and Azerbaijan. Not for Premier League Clubs who are in the Deloitte world top 20 biggest clubs .

If it benefits one particular club in Deloitte’s top 20 I don’t give a fuck what it was created for.

FC Beergarden in the final please.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on April 30, 2025, 08:33:47 AM
Also, whilst it’s not mega important any Euro competition helps with the Clubs coefficient. We only got an extra 10 pts I think for CL QF over the ECL Semi so from my perspective even if the competition isn’t as prestigious keeping that number ticking over is important imv. Not least because there’s extra revenue to be had in UEfAs value pillar from continued European qualification. 

This is an important - if a bit mercenary - point to consider.  Another year in the conference league (disappointing as it would be from a purely footballing perspective) would mean we'd get MORE money if we get into the Champions League in a subsequent season, because CL earnings are also based on a club's UEFA coefficient (there are teams that finished lower than us in the league phase who earned a lot more than us due to their coefficient).

The coefficient is a five- and ten-year calculation, so getting European football of ANY kind helps with that. 

Personally, my memories of cold nights away in the Championship are still WAY too fresh in my mind to even consider turning my nose up at European competition, even the smaller third-tier one.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on April 30, 2025, 08:43:24 AM
UEFA created the competition in order to offer European competition for more clubs and have more representation from associations that might not qualify for the group stages of the Champions League or Europa League.
Basically a tournament for the likes of Scotland, Bosnia and Azerbaijan. Not for Premier League Clubs who are in the Deloitte world top 20 biggest clubs .


And yet, if you asked UEFA or the clubs in those smaller leagues whether the big league teams ought to be excluded, you'd get an enormous no because nobody would watch/broadcast the competition if those teams weren't there. Not that anyone watches it now, but it's on.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on April 30, 2025, 09:25:30 AM
The Conference was created for the same reason the European Cup became the CL and the Uefa became the Europa. Money. I doubt anyone thinks that a highly greedy and corrupt organisation created the Conference to benefit minnow countries like Azerbaijan, Ireland and Scotland. The vast majority of seasons it will be won by a club from England, Spain, Germany or Italy, same as the other two competions.

And if we won it that would be around £20m going into our accounts, without selling a player or fleecing fans.

And it would end the trophy drought, guarantee the Europa and for the first time in our history European football for a 4th consecutive season.

We all want CL but we are far from a position to look at either of the other two competitions with disdain.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on April 30, 2025, 04:52:34 PM
The Conference was created for the same reason the European Cup became the CL and the Uefa became the Europa. Money. I doubt anyone thinks that a highly greedy and corrupt organisation created the Conference to benefit minnow countries like Azerbaijan, Ireland and Scotland. The vast majority of seasons it will be won by a club from England, Spain, Germany or Italy, same as the other two competions.

And if we won it that would be around £20m going into our accounts, without selling a player or fleecing fans.

And it would end the trophy drought, guarantee the Europa and for the first time in our history European football for a 4th consecutive season.

We all want CL but we are far from a position to look at either of the other two competitions with disdain.

I agree with all of this and would absolutely not be arsed with turning up to watch until the semi-finals at best.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on April 30, 2025, 05:06:40 PM
Agreed. I'll be fair-weather with Conference if that's what we get til we're close to the final. I've put in enough of a shift as a Villan to have princess privilege now and then.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TheToffnar on April 30, 2025, 05:12:35 PM
Speak for yourselves. As someone else said earlier, those cold nights in the Championship are still with me...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on April 30, 2025, 05:33:10 PM
I quite enjoyed the Conference League games last season.  They were relatively cheap, played teams that sounded exotic, and I could get tickets relatively easily.  A far cry from this Champions League bollocks where I can't get tickets ... and even if I could get them, I can't afford them.

Just on that basis, whilst I obviously would rather us qualify for the Champions League, there are some definite positives in my mind from playing in the Conference League.  Plus I think we could conceivably win it, which I'm less sure is the case with the Champions League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on April 30, 2025, 05:35:34 PM
There was only Mostar who were a random side.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on April 30, 2025, 05:35:47 PM
I wouldn't mind Europa.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on April 30, 2025, 06:17:33 PM
I get the acceptance for the Europa League and for the reasons why but Champions League for me. The league format was great and Champions League football really suited us, we played some of our best stuff in it. Not only that, the more we play in it, the better team we'll become.

Or the Europa, I really don't mind.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on April 30, 2025, 06:38:54 PM
I get the acceptance for the Europa League and for the reasons why but Champions League for me.

I don't think anyone is suggesting they'd prefer either of the other two.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on April 30, 2025, 08:39:45 PM
I've always fancied a few days in Qarabag , so if it's conference bring them on .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 01, 2025, 01:28:28 AM
I've always fancied a few days in Qarabag , so if it's conference bring them on .

I've got bad news for you. They don't play there any more, and haven't done since 1993.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 01, 2025, 06:54:30 AM
And more bad news, Qarabag will be in the Champions League qualifying round next season.

Trips to Zira or Nakhchivan would still be on the table if we ended up in the Conference League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: IFWaters on May 01, 2025, 07:12:26 AM
the fact that both Man Utd and Spurs after their effing awful seasons are still in the Europa League and that the winners of it get Champs League qualification make it somewhat attractive as a winnable competition in my view. But not making CL would harm our ability to further improve the squad.

So looks like we will be cheering on Man C115y in the FA Cup final in a couple of weeks
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: darren woolley on May 01, 2025, 07:41:35 AM
It would be great if we got Champions League again purely on a financial basis but I wouldn't mind the Europa League some good times in the Europa League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 01, 2025, 08:34:41 AM
And more bad news, Qarabag will be in the Champions League qualifying round next season.

Although they would drop into the Conference League Qualifiers if they get eliminated.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on May 01, 2025, 08:49:02 AM
The conference is a lot weaker now that previously because there's no drop down in to it from the Europa. Look at the last 16 when we were in it to now and also the amount of teams in it that played Champions League the next season.

Villa *
Fenerbache *
Union St-G *
Ajax
Fiorentina
Maccabi
Dinamo Z *
Servette
Olympiakos
PAOK *
Viktoria Plzen
Maccabi TA
Lille *
Brugge *
Molde
Strum Graz *

compared to

Lugano
Celje
Djurgarden
Pafos
Borac
Legia W
Rapid Vienna
Cercle B
Jagionella
Molde
Copenhagen
Chelsea
Real Betis
Fiorentina
Vitoria Setubal
Panathinaikos

We'd be playing a lot of randomy made up teams on a Thursday night with league games at shit kick off times on a Sunday afternoon. It's better than nothing but still crap
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 01, 2025, 08:49:54 AM
And more bad news, Qarabag will be in the Champions League qualifying round next season.

Trips to Zira or Nakhchivan would still be on the table if we ended up in the Conference League.
aren't they in the Bullring
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 01, 2025, 08:53:22 AM
And more bad news, Qarabag will be in the Champions League qualifying round next season.

Although they would drop into the Conference League Qualifiers if they get eliminated.

That's the problem with the Conference League. When the big teams drop out of the Champions League it doesn't give the rest of us a chance.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 01, 2025, 08:53:50 AM
When is a team a made up team?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 01, 2025, 09:13:33 AM
Still no escape from Rapid bastard Vienna. I wish they meant nothing to me.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on May 01, 2025, 09:18:52 AM
When is a team a made up team?

When they are called Borac or Jagionella, which I thought was a disease.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Keeno on May 01, 2025, 09:19:25 AM
Given their fixtures I feel like we could feasibly catch one of Forest or Chelsea and finish 6th, but seems unlikely they'd both slip up to the extent that we could get past both of them into 5th.

Europa League would be a really fun competition, one we have a chance of winning at next season and alongside our league campaign it would provide 2 routes back into the CL.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 01, 2025, 09:27:15 AM
Still no escape from Rapid bastard Vienna. I wish they meant nothing to me.

We could face FC Noah. I think they flood the midfield.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 01, 2025, 09:40:27 AM
When is a team a made up team?
Go Ahead Eagles
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 01, 2025, 11:01:27 AM
When is a team a made up team?

Go Ahead Eagles

That was our team name on Saturday.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 01, 2025, 11:47:45 AM
When is a team a made up team?

Go Ahead Eagles

That was our team name on Saturday.
;D
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 01, 2025, 02:17:21 PM
When is a team a made up team?

Go Ahead Eagles

That was our team name on Saturday.

😂😂👏
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dr.chekov on May 01, 2025, 02:23:23 PM
When is a team a made up team?

Go Ahead Eagles

That was our team name on Saturday.

Haha.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 01, 2025, 02:58:50 PM
Too soon. 🙁
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: yammers on May 01, 2025, 09:18:04 PM
How shit must the Europa League be if both Yanited and Spuds are more than likely going to be in the final and then one of them qualify for the Champions League despite potentially finishing 16th and 17th in the league!!!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 01, 2025, 09:25:41 PM
Excellent result tonight. Got to take advantage of it, and not be flat like Forest were.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: amfy on May 01, 2025, 09:29:24 PM
3 points behind with teams above us playing each other. So close!
Even the GD is down to 7 between us & Forest now which is potentially just a couple of results for us and them going our way.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Steve67 on May 01, 2025, 09:30:55 PM
Our goal difference may come back to haunt us.  Unless we can beat Fulham 10-0.

Some of the sides above have to play each other, which might give us a sniff.  Joelinton out for the barcodes too.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 01, 2025, 09:32:12 PM
That result tonight might just about bring us back in play...if we win all four. Permutations are two of the following need to happen combined with four wins:

Newcastle lose two
Man City lose one and draw one
Forest drop points in any form in two
Chelsea drop points in any form in two

Last game of the season is Forest - Chelsea. A draw in that would mean they both need to drop points in one other game. Odds are slim, but not impossible.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 01, 2025, 09:37:16 PM
Three wins and a draw could do it. The teams above are all going to fuck-up a couple of times apart from Citeh.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 01, 2025, 09:37:20 PM
Weekend fixtures

Fri
Man City v Wolves

Sat
Villa v Fulham

Sun
Brighton v Newcastle
Chelsea v Liverpool

Mon
Palace v Forest
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 01, 2025, 09:39:32 PM
They are some tasty fixtures if we get the job done.

That point at the Etihad would've been handy 🫣
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on May 01, 2025, 09:45:44 PM
Tonight's result was really sexy.

I have nothing against Forest, but they can fuck off. I want that CL spot. Sorry lads!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Andy_Lochhead_in_the_air on May 01, 2025, 09:50:02 PM
Unlikely but imagine this scenario last day of the season.
Forest and Chelsea sit in 4th and 5th 2 points ahead of us in 6th with our inferior goal difference. We win at Man U, but they play out a 0-0 draw taking turns to pass the ball about in their own half.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chip Butty 111 on May 01, 2025, 10:02:06 PM
The Forest result is tremendous, looks like they are choking on expectation. Chelsea and Newcastle have some tough fixtures, but City should stroll some easy games. Fulham is now a huge game to get ourselves back in the mix, we can dislodge one of Forest/Chelsea/Newcastle from the top 5
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 01, 2025, 10:03:05 PM
We can. Sadly we need to dislodge two of them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on May 01, 2025, 10:13:58 PM
That last game Forest v Chelsea certainly has the possibility of being played in the context of something peculiar.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chip Butty 111 on May 01, 2025, 10:15:31 PM
We can. Sadly we need to dislodge two of them.
The way Forest are going they will dislodge themselves lol. Chelsea have some tough fixtures and European games to play. We are still right in the mix after Forest losing tonight, I can see Forest losing at Palace aswell
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tokyo Sexwhale on May 01, 2025, 10:52:07 PM
Unlikely but imagine this scenario last day of the season.
Forest and Chelsea sit in 4th and 5th 2 points ahead of us in 6th with our inferior goal difference. We win at Man U, but they play out a 0-0 draw taking turns to pass the ball about in their own half.

They probably won't be able to do that, because Newcastle will already be in the mix, and they won't have the same GD advantage over them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: django on May 01, 2025, 11:06:40 PM
That result tonight might just about bring us back in play...if we win all four. Permutations are two of the following need to happen combined with four wins:

Newcastle lose two
Man City lose one and draw one
Forest drop points in any form in two
Chelsea drop points in any form in two

Last game of the season is Forest - Chelsea. A draw in that would mean they both need to drop points in one other game. Odds are slim, but not impossible.

Chelsea play Forest and Newcastle so there will be dropped points in those games. Newcastle’s game against Arsenal and Forests against palace will be tricky too. Forest look like a side that momentum
Is swinging against at the wrong time for them and they feel it. If they struggle against Palace it could really fall apart for them. Chelsea don’t have an easy game.

Still lots to play for. I hope the result tonight has given our squad a lift as we need one after our last couple of games.

The upside to tonight’s Europa league games is it should make things easier in the last couple of games for us. It’s the next two
that are my biggest worry and particularly how we turn up for Fulham.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: taylorsworkrate on May 01, 2025, 11:10:18 PM
We will have to win all 4 to stand a chance. Can I see it at the moment? Not really.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 02, 2025, 12:48:58 AM
We can. Sadly we need to dislodge two of them.
The way Forest are going they will dislodge themselves lol. Chelsea have some tough fixtures and European games to play. We are still right in the mix after Forest losing tonight, I can see Forest losing at Palace aswell

We win on Saturday and the pressure is really on Forest on Monday night.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 02, 2025, 12:54:13 AM
We will have to win all 4 to stand a chance. Can I see it at the moment? Not really.

We'll draw one but still sneak in. Can't wait.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: jwarry on May 02, 2025, 04:01:51 AM
The upside to United and Spurs getting to the Europa final is that will be their sole focus for the last two games of the season……… he said hopefully
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 02, 2025, 04:46:58 AM
Yep, I'm pleased the both won. Any marginal gains at the min are most welcome.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 02, 2025, 05:56:43 AM
The flipside of that is Chelsea play Man Utd in the match prior to the final. I genuinely think Man Utd will lose all their remaining league games but win the Europa League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 02, 2025, 07:56:21 AM
Nobody was looking at the run and thinking Man United was the game Chelsea might slip up.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on May 02, 2025, 08:07:01 AM
The flipside of that is Chelsea play Man Utd in the match prior to the final. I genuinely think Man Utd will lose all their remaining league games but win the Europa League.

They won't lose ALL their league games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on May 02, 2025, 08:08:12 AM
Unlikely but imagine this scenario last day of the season.
Forest and Chelsea sit in 4th and 5th 2 points ahead of us in 6th with our inferior goal difference. We win at Man U, but they play out a 0-0 draw taking turns to pass the ball about in their own half.

They probably won't be able to do that, because Newcastle will already be in the mix, and they won't have the same GD advantage over them.

An alternative but similar final day scenario is that one of Forest and Chelsea requires a point to seal a Champions League place, and the other requires a point to seal 6th place and a place in the Europa League, at our expense.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: London Villan on May 02, 2025, 08:46:40 AM
Forest and Chelsea in particular have a tricky run of games. At best they will get 67/68 points...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 02, 2025, 08:48:36 AM
Us being a further point behind because of our goal difference is what could see us off.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 02, 2025, 08:51:32 AM
Doubt it will come down to goal difference. Not too many  if any, instances of that ever happening over 4th (or now I suppose 5th).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 02, 2025, 08:53:32 AM
Doubt it will come down to goal difference. Not too many  if any, instances of that ever happening over 4th (or now I suppose 5th).

I'd bet there aren't many occasions where there have been five teams within five points of each other with four games left to play though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 02, 2025, 08:54:13 AM
I don’t think it’ll come down to goal difference, but I do think we need to win 4 out of 4 to get top 5.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 02, 2025, 08:56:17 AM
Unlikely but imagine this scenario last day of the season.
Forest and Chelsea sit in 4th and 5th 2 points ahead of us in 6th with our inferior goal difference. We win at Man U, but they play out a 0-0 draw taking turns to pass the ball about in their own half.

They probably won't be able to do that, because Newcastle will already be in the mix, and they won't have the same GD advantage over them.

An alternative but similar final day scenario is that one of Forest and Chelsea requires a point to seal a Champions League place, and the other requires a point to seal 6th place and a place in the Europa League, at our expense.


Only if a point would secure CL for both are they likely to play out a draw.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Marlon From Bearwood on May 02, 2025, 09:11:01 AM
We will have to win all 4 to stand a chance. Can I see it at the moment? Not really.

We'll draw one but still sneak in. Can't wait.


I think so too. I doubt we’ll win all four games but can see us getting 10 points which might just be enough.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 02, 2025, 09:13:39 AM
We will have to win all 4 to stand a chance. Can I see it at the moment? Not really.

We'll draw one but still sneak in. Can't wait.


I think so too. I doubt we’ll win all four games but can see us getting 10 points which might just be enough.

Yeah, I reckon everyone involved will have a slip up somewhere that isn't expected, some probably more than one. Don't think many people had a Forest defeat at home to Brentford on their plans for the how the rest of the season was going to play out.

Just need to make sure the team doing worse than expected isn't us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 02, 2025, 09:16:25 AM
Chelsea feel like a side that will drop points. in the last 5 months they've won 2 league games by more than 1 goal.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 02, 2025, 09:19:00 AM
If we can beat Fulham in the early KO, that puts added pressure on the others .
Will Liverpool turn up at Chelsea. Are Palace done bar the final now ?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on May 02, 2025, 09:19:09 AM
Unlikely but imagine this scenario last day of the season.
Forest and Chelsea sit in 4th and 5th 2 points ahead of us in 6th with our inferior goal difference. We win at Man U, but they play out a 0-0 draw taking turns to pass the ball about in their own half.

They probably won't be able to do that, because Newcastle will already be in the mix, and they won't have the same GD advantage over them.

An alternative but similar final day scenario is that one of Forest and Chelsea requires a point to seal a Champions League place, and the other requires a point to seal 6th place and a place in the Europa League, at our expense.


Only if a point would secure CL for both are they likely to play out a draw.

Not if one of them is already out of CL contention by that time, which is entirely conceivable.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 02, 2025, 09:26:20 AM
Chelsea are probably the one we most need to drop points. If they win their intervening games they'll have Champions League wrapped up by last week and almost certainly send the reserves to Forest ahead of the Conference Final. You'd fancy them to beat disinterested Liverpool and Man U, but we could catch them if they lose to Newcastle and we win all our games. Obviously we won't though, because we'd find a way not to beat Man U if Paul Lambert was their manager and their entire first team had been struck down by leprosy.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 02, 2025, 09:27:13 AM
I wouldn't really fancy them to beat any sort of Liverpool, as Liverpool are much better than them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 02, 2025, 09:29:00 AM
Having nothing to play for makes a big difference. Imagine they'll give a few fringe/young players a run-out, too.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 02, 2025, 09:30:52 AM
They both know a point will do it, they play out a draw as obvious as the Disgrace of Gijon. The FA docks them both 3 points, they both miss out. No CL money sends Chelsea into irreversible decline and relegation. Forest go back to being a lower league side.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 02, 2025, 09:44:02 AM
Those draws vs Ipswich(x2), West Ham, Bounemouth, ManUre and silly defeat at Wolves are going to come back to haunt us i fear .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Duncan Shaw on May 02, 2025, 09:48:28 AM
Those draws vs Ipswich(x2), West Ham, Bounemouth, ManUre and silly defeat at Wolves are going to come back to haunt us i fear .
And likewise, the really good wins at Brentford, Brighton, Saints and smashing Jaudi Arabia at home have catapulted us right into contention.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 02, 2025, 10:00:51 AM
Chelsea took 1 point off Ipswich, drew at home to Bournemouth and Fulham, got twatted by Brighton and so on. All 5 of us have dropped silly points. Considering we spent ages battered by injuries it's decent that we're still in contention. If we'd had the injury record Forest had for most of the season we'd have strolled top 3 imo.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 02, 2025, 10:02:47 AM
Has anybody conceded as many late goals as us though ? How many points has that cost us ? Forest A / Bournemouth H there's 5 points straight away
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 02, 2025, 10:11:10 AM
The current points position would suggest that Newcastle, Man City, Forest, Chelsea and ourselves all have broadly similar levels of weakness, whatever they may be, as all sides have coalesced at this stage with similar points tallies.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on May 02, 2025, 10:11:42 AM
We have a week between each of our remaining fixtures, plenty of time for Emery to come up with a master plan for each game, for players to rest bodies and minds. We need to focus and go out there and smash everyone.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TheToffnar on May 02, 2025, 10:32:03 AM
Aside from Rashford being out, we have zero excuses not to throw everything at every remaining fixture.

We have arguably the easiest run in aside from City. We have the fittest squad, a week between each fixture and no comps to worry about anymore whilst playing sides that do.

If we play our best football and only manage 6-10 points I'll live with it, but if we put in another lackluster performance like we did against Palace or City they'll be hell to pay. No excuses.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on May 02, 2025, 10:58:39 AM
It reminds me of our first season back in the Premier League. Many of us thought we were going back down but we put 4 results together and had other results go our way to stay up.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on May 02, 2025, 11:02:05 AM
It reminds me of our first season back in the Premier League. Many of us thought we were going back down but we put 4 results together and had other results go our way to stay up.

YOU ALL thought we were going down apart from Olaftab and me!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chip Butty 111 on May 02, 2025, 11:15:22 AM
Ironically if  Man Utd win the Europa and qualify for the CL, with their last 2 games being Chelsea away and us at Old Trafford, they could eliminate us or Chelsea from the CL despite being an absolute rabble all season...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TheToffnar on May 02, 2025, 11:19:17 AM
Ironically if  Man Utd win the Europa and qualify for the CL, with their last 2 games being Chelsea away and us at Old Trafford, they could eliminate us or Chelsea from the CL despite being an absolute rabble all season...

You can just see it can't you...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 02, 2025, 11:20:40 AM
Or both of us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chip Butty 111 on May 02, 2025, 11:24:30 AM
Ironically if  Man Utd win the Europa and qualify for the CL, with their last 2 games being Chelsea away and us at Old Trafford, they could eliminate us or Chelsea from the CL despite being an absolute rabble all season...

You can just see it can't you...
....and probably in stoppage time
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Skerra on May 02, 2025, 11:28:44 AM
I think we’re quite fortunate to have to play both of the likely Europa League finalists as, given their league positions, the league is not going to be a priority for either of them.
However, this is Villa we’re talking about so, expect Spurs to win one of their few games this season and Manure to revive the spirit of Fergie!!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on May 02, 2025, 11:44:05 AM
I think we’re quite fortunate to have to play both of the likely Europa League finalists as, given their league positions, the league is not going to be a priority for either of them.
However, this is Villa we’re talking about so, expect Spurs to win one of their few games this season and Manure to revive the spirit of Fergie!!

They don't even need that, they can channel the spirit of Ten Hag and still beat us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 02, 2025, 11:51:02 AM
Ironically if  Man Utd win the Europa and qualify for the CL, with their last 2 games being Chelsea away and us at Old Trafford, they could eliminate us or Chelsea from the CL despite being an absolute rabble all season...

You can just see it can't you...
....and probably in stoppage time
with Peter Drury on the mic
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on May 02, 2025, 11:53:36 AM
But we're not at all scarred.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on May 02, 2025, 11:57:59 AM
But we're not at all scarred.

I've got a big one from my knee op.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 02, 2025, 12:13:11 PM
Do we have a list of who's likely to qualify for next season's Champions League? I want to see who we'll be playing in it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SamTheMouse on May 02, 2025, 12:18:50 PM
They both know a point will do it, they play out a draw as obvious as the Disgrace of Gijon. The FA docks them both 3 points, they both miss out. No CL money sends Chelsea into irreversible decline and relegation. Forest go back to being a lower league side.

There's a quantum reality somewhere in the universe where this happens, and I want to go there.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 02, 2025, 02:03:20 PM
Do we have a list of who's likely to qualify for next season's Champions League? I want to see who we'll be playing in it.

The 2025/26 Champions League page on Wikipedia is as good a place as any for confirmed entrants. The rankings bloke on Twitter and Bluesky is good for speculation.

This his latest prediction, obviously not including Villa. I think our coefficient is about 47 so if we qualified we'd probably be in pot three now. Not that pots really matter any more.

https://bsky.app/profile/footrankings.bsky.social/post/3lo5bkcnigc2p
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on May 02, 2025, 02:51:17 PM
Man Utd in Pot One!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 02, 2025, 03:07:18 PM
With 6 in, I believe same country fixtures are not blocked for that country in the league phase.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 02, 2025, 03:41:11 PM
It would be impossible to arrange so that the the top seeds from the same country didn't play each other, as there aren't enough non-English top seeds to go round. Would hope that English pot three/four teams could still avoid playing other Premier League teams, though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 02, 2025, 04:18:32 PM
Do we have a list of who's likely to qualify for next season's Champions League? I want to see who we'll be playing in it.

The 2025/26 Champions League page on Wikipedia is as good a place as any for confirmed entrants. The rankings bloke on Twitter and Bluesky is good for speculation.

Yes, I know. My post was more about injecting some positivity in the thread. :)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tony Daleys Shorts on May 02, 2025, 04:31:40 PM
Ironically if  Man Utd win the Europa and qualify for the CL, with their last 2 games being Chelsea away and us at Old Trafford, they could eliminate us or Chelsea from the CL despite being an absolute rabble all season...

You can just see it can't you...
....and probably in stoppage time

You mean ‘Fergie Time’ ….. vomit
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 02, 2025, 04:41:14 PM
Do we have a list of who's likely to qualify for next season's Champions League? I want to see who we'll be playing in it.

The 2025/26 Champions League page on Wikipedia is as good a place as any for confirmed entrants. The rankings bloke on Twitter and Bluesky is good for speculation.

Yes, I know. My post was more about injecting some positivity in the thread. :)

This is everything I stand against.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 02, 2025, 04:56:31 PM
Yes, I know. My post was more about injecting some positivity in the thread. :)

This is everything I stand against.

Just wait till you see the rest of my manifesto.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 02, 2025, 05:00:51 PM
Our coefficient is 47.25 which would put us in pot one (just) in the Europa League and Pot three in the Champions League. 15% chance of top five according to that Footy Rankings thing. Win this weekend and that will shoot up. I'm back on board. Let's go.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Steve67 on May 03, 2025, 09:50:41 AM
I fancy 115 to get past Arsenal into 2nd place.  For us though, looking to pip Forest or Chelsea for 5th is now our only option because 5 points and a worse goal difference is too much to catch up now.  Only by winning all 4 will we manage this.  It's still exciting and gives us something to play for, there is no room for error though.  Arsenal, Man City and Newcastle are sorted.  It's a straight fight for 5th between Chelsea, Forest and Villa for 5th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 03, 2025, 10:31:00 AM
It's a straight fight for 5th between Chelsea, Forest and Villa for 5th.

Just need to win today, and become Brighton, Liverpool and Palace fans for the rest of the weekend's fixtures. If Newcastle lose to Brighton today, they're right back in it with us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Goldenballs on May 03, 2025, 11:46:34 AM
Hate the early kick off, the potential to completely destroy the entire bank holiday weekend.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 03, 2025, 11:58:10 AM
Hate the early kick off, the potential to completely destroy the entire bank holiday weekend.
Or set it up brilliantly
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 03, 2025, 12:04:09 PM
Or have a good weekend either way because what Villa do doesn't matter that much.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on May 03, 2025, 12:26:07 PM
Or have a good weekend either way because what Villa do doesn't matter that much.

I’m going to choose to have a shot one regardless. Is that ok?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 03, 2025, 12:26:48 PM
Or have a good weekend either way because what Villa do doesn't matter that much.

I’m going to choose to have a shot one regardless. Is that ok?
fire away
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 03, 2025, 12:27:26 PM
Or have a good weekend either way because what Villa do doesn't matter that much.

I’m going to choose to have a shot one regardless. Is that ok?

A shot of whiskey?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: waynejames on May 03, 2025, 12:51:09 PM
I fancy 115 to get past Arsenal into 2nd place.  For us though, looking to pip Forest or Chelsea for 5th is now our only option because 5 points and a worse goal difference is too much to catch up now.  Only by winning all 4 will we manage this.  It's still exciting and gives us something to play for, there is no room for error though.  Arsenal, Man City and Newcastle are sorted.  It's a straight fight for 5th between Chelsea, Forest and Villa for 5th.

Newcastle are not sorted.....look at their fixtures they are quite capable of dropping between 4 and 6 points
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 03, 2025, 02:38:25 PM
Just need Brighton to turn up against Newcastle, Liverpool not playing their reserves, and Palace not to be looking forward 2 weeks.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on May 03, 2025, 02:41:47 PM
Yep we need a lot of help still. But we did our bit today. I assume Liverpool will be in party mode vs Chelsea so chalk that off. Palace could do us a favour after battering us against Forest.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Keeno on May 03, 2025, 02:42:41 PM
If we can get 3 points v Bournemouth, I will start to believe...

We've won 6 in 7 to be fair - Wembley horror show aside, we're finishing the season so strongly.

Feels like November-New Year is the period that might cost us if we miss out - I've not got too many complaints about how we've approached the league in the final few months.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Goldenballs on May 03, 2025, 02:44:13 PM
Always liked the early kick off, perfectly sets up the bank holiday weekend.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: BoVillan esq on May 03, 2025, 02:44:19 PM
Just need Brighton to turn up against Newcastle, Liverpool not playing their reserves, and Palace not to be looking forward 2 weeks.

This is it, really hard game for Newcastle, and Liverpool are more than capable of beating a poor Chelsea team, as for Palace that's the fly in the ointment because they undoubtedly are thinking FA Cup final.

Its the Brighton game and the Liverpool game that are important though.

What bothers me is the fact we have Bournemouth, Spurs and worst of all Man Utd who will want to beat us just for the shear bloody mindedness of doing it. Difficult to see back to back wins if we play like we did today. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aldridgeboy on May 03, 2025, 03:07:09 PM
Spurs and Man U hopefully having one eye on the UEFA final.

Last day always throws up some rrallly random scores ( or in my head does). Win the next two we will be there or thereabouts I think.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olneythelonely on May 03, 2025, 03:09:50 PM
Or have a good weekend either way because what Villa do doesn't matter that much.

I’m going to choose to have a shot one regardless. Is that ok?

A shot of whiskey?

Nothing starts the bank holiday weekend off poorly than a typo.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Des Little on May 03, 2025, 04:16:34 PM
One thing is certain, never trust or rely on any team. Most of all, Aston Villa.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on May 03, 2025, 04:28:25 PM
Win all three and I reckon it's CL. Win two and its Europa, which is still not to be sniffed at.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 03, 2025, 07:24:21 PM
Yep it’ll be very tough next week, but job done today and need to win 3 more.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 03, 2025, 07:34:03 PM
Win all three and I reckon it's CL. Win two and its Europa, which is still not to be sniffed at.

Yup, that feels right.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Pat Mustard on May 03, 2025, 07:39:20 PM
Win all 3 now and it’s definitely more likely than not. Arsenal still need 4 points themselves to guarantee CL, so they will need to get something against Newcastle now. With the other matches between Newcastle, Forest and Chelsea meaning dropped points for at least 2 of them, it is just down to us to take care of our own business.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 03, 2025, 08:59:36 PM
Bournemouth A looks slightly more difficult now .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 03, 2025, 08:59:44 PM
The last 3 games do not suggest we are in the sort of form to win at Bournemouth and Old Trafford.


Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 03, 2025, 09:11:31 PM
Bournemouth have their second win in 10. We've just won our 6th league game out the last 7. There's some interesting takes spouted on the Internet at times.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 03, 2025, 09:15:23 PM
Bournemouth have their second win in 10. We've just won our 6th league game out the last 7. There's some interesting takes spouted on the Internet at times.
We have been flat 3 games in a row.
I think it is something to do with selection and tactics, we are going to need to be very good to beat Bournemouth.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 03, 2025, 09:17:07 PM
We weren't flat today. We were comfortable and created enough to win 3 games. You're weirdly limiting it to the 2 games we were off the boil, rather than  extending it to the absolute fucking hammering we doled out to Newcastle or the pant shitting we gave PSG or the multiple games weve won since February. Load of bollocks.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chip Butty 111 on May 04, 2025, 09:25:54 AM
Bournemouth have their second win in 10. We've just won our 6th league game out the last 7. There's some interesting takes spouted on the Internet at times.
We have been flat 3 games in a row.
I think it is something to do with selection and tactics, we are going to need to be very good to beat Bournemouth.
We will need to be at our best to beat Bournemouth, I'd play Onana as Kamara looks absolutely knackered. Whatever chances we get we need to put away, unlike yesterday. I think we'll beat Spurs, but you can guarantee Roland Rat will score for UTD in the last game and we'll need to score 2 or 3 to get a win there.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 04, 2025, 09:37:03 AM
Don't think our record at Bournemouth is very good. Tinpot  little ground , have we won there since the Gestede game .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 04, 2025, 11:58:57 AM
Not sure if Mings combative style or Torres trying to find the spaces on a tight pitch is the better option at Bournemouth. Emery seems to be sticking with Pau now though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 04, 2025, 01:35:41 PM
The pitch won't be any tighter than usual in fairness .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: JUAN PABLO on May 04, 2025, 02:00:46 PM
We played okish yesterday and still should have won 4 0 , fulham did f@@k all but their handball goal.     Bourmenth had 2 efforts on target against a crap arsenal team yesterday , If the players are up for this after another weeks rest , we can win there and we owe them for VP 1-1, when we was all over them .   Still going to be dropped points of the other teams so we are still in this 100% and you know the players will really want chumps league now again ..
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 04, 2025, 05:13:42 PM
The pitch won't be any tighter than usual in fairness .

It just looks tinpot and small but I guess that's the camera angle in a small ground.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: yammers on May 04, 2025, 06:21:00 PM
Well Liverpool certainly didn’t look like champions today did they!  Doesn’t help when he makes 6 changes though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on May 04, 2025, 06:25:27 PM
We’ll have to win every game to do it.  And if we do, we’ll have deserved it. 

Liverpool today have been a joke.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chip Butty 111 on May 04, 2025, 06:35:11 PM
We need Palace to show up now against Forest, a Forest win would be a killer blow for us I fear..
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 04, 2025, 06:47:39 PM
I still think if we win the remaining 3 we’ll get there. But that remains a big ask and obviously it doesn’t guarantee anything.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ez on May 04, 2025, 07:12:57 PM
We can win all our remaining games. Fulham was the most difficult one and we won it. Our run in is favorable enough. What I fear most is running out of games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 04, 2025, 07:13:09 PM
The pitch won't be any tighter than usual in fairness .

It just looks tinpot and small but I guess that's the camera angle in a small ground.
Yeah I think that's it , the pitches are generally more or less the same size .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 04, 2025, 07:53:32 PM
I do think it hinges on us winning the remaining 3. If we don’t do that then it’s very difficult for us. But if we do it basically means:

Chelsea and Newcastle can do no worse than 2 wins from 3 to finish in front of us - and they play each other.

The minimum Forest would have to do is win 2 of 3, or if they don’t win tomorrow they’d have to win all 3 (and they play Chelsea).


Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on May 04, 2025, 08:16:11 PM
We can win all our remaining games. Fulham was the most difficult one and we won it. Our run in is favorable enough. What I fear most is running out of games.

I think Bournemouth was the most difficult game, even before yesterday. Win that and I’ll feel relaxed about Spurs, then back to shitting myself about our Man U curse.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: villa for life on May 04, 2025, 08:16:54 PM
I still think if we win the remaining 3 we’ll get there. But that remains a big ask and obviously it doesn’t guarantee anything.

Uhmm

Not sure you’re really adding anything there…

You say you think we’ll get there if we win our remaining three.

But that’s a big ask.

But even if we do, it doesn’t guarantee anything.

So…
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 04, 2025, 08:18:31 PM
Bournemouth and ManUre will both be much tougher than Fulham . And we are pretty average away from home this season .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 04, 2025, 08:24:38 PM
I still think if we win the remaining 3 we’ll get there. But that remains a big ask and obviously it doesn’t guarantee anything.

Uhmm

Not sure you’re really adding anything there…

You say you think we’ll get there if we win our remaining three.

But that’s a big ask.

But even if we do, it doesn’t guarantee anything.

So…


Well it’s pretty obvious isn’t it, I think three wins will do it but that’s not a mathematical certainty.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: villa for life on May 04, 2025, 08:28:11 PM
I still think if we win the remaining 3 we’ll get there. But that remains a big ask and obviously it doesn’t guarantee anything.

Uhmm

Not sure you’re really adding anything there…

You say you think we’ll get there if we win our remaining three.

But that’s a big ask.

But even if we do, it doesn’t guarantee anything.

So…


Well it’s pretty obvious isn’t it, I think three wins will do it but that’s not a mathematical certainty.

Yes, precisely. Pretty obvious.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 04, 2025, 08:33:16 PM
Sure, heaven forbid people express an opinion on a football forum.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: villa for life on May 04, 2025, 08:37:53 PM
Sure, heaven forbid people extress an opinion on a football forum.

I know.. especially when it’s an unpopular one! Some people might say you even have an agenda!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 04, 2025, 08:42:36 PM
You’ve genuinely lost me there.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: villa for life on May 04, 2025, 08:45:31 PM
You’ve genuinely lost me there.

It’s ok. Hard to keep track.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 04, 2025, 08:59:41 PM
I still think if we win the remaining 3 we’ll get there. But that remains a big ask and obviously it doesn’t guarantee anything.

Uhmm

Not sure you’re really adding anything there…

You say you think we’ll get there if we win our remaining three.

But that’s a big ask.

But even if we do, it doesn’t guarantee anything.

So…


Well it’s pretty obvious isn’t it, I think three wins will do it but that’s not a mathematical certainty.

Yep, especially as our goal difference is considerably worse than those around us.  If we were on 63 points with a comparative goal difference, it would look a lot better, but the 3 point margin and superior goal difference means those on 63 points only need to win two if we win all three.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: john2710 on May 04, 2025, 09:10:00 PM
If we win all 3, that will be enough to finish 5th. We'd be very unlucky to miss out on 69 points. Seven points might be enough, but with our goal difference I wouldn't be confident.

The key game is Bournemouth, they are tough to beat at home, have something to play for & we've seen a lot of poor performances away from home.

A win on Saturday & it's on.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on May 04, 2025, 09:27:32 PM
We can win all our remaining games. Fulham was the most difficult one and we won it. Our run in is favorable enough. What I fear most is running out of games.

I think Bournemouth was the most difficult game, even before yesterday. Win that and I’ll feel relaxed about Spurs, then back to shitting myself about our Man U curse.

I’d go with that. For me, given our home record against them, Fulham was the easiest game, our record against Spurs is patchy and well we know about Man U!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 04, 2025, 09:28:47 PM
If we win all 3, that will be enough to finish 5th. We'd be very unlucky to miss out on 69 points. Seven points might be enough, but with our goal difference I wouldn't be confident.

The key game is Bournemouth, they are tough to beat at home, have something to play for & we've seen a lot of poor performances away from home.

A win on Saturday & it's on.
Effectively a cup final and will need a big performance. Team selection and tactics will be key. Bournemouth also have an excellent manager . It's the late KO 530pm which suits us better I believe .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: MalcolmP on May 04, 2025, 09:35:08 PM
No chance of top 5 if Unai employs same tactics and team selections as he did against Man City and Palace.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Crown Hill on May 04, 2025, 09:36:09 PM
Sure, heaven forbid people express an opinion on a football forum.

I’ll never understand this forum.

If people disagree just post your own views rather than sneering. Is it really so difficult?

It’s almost cultural in here now to go for the man rather than the ball!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 04, 2025, 09:54:40 PM
No chance of top 5 if Unai employs same tactics and team selections as he did against Man City and Palace.
We need to approach Bournemouth like we did v Brighton . Keep it tight and grow into it second half .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Skerra on May 04, 2025, 09:56:47 PM
If we win all 3, that will be enough to finish 5th. We'd be very unlucky to miss out on 69 points. Seven points might be enough, but with our goal difference I wouldn't be confident.

The key game is Bournemouth, they are tough to beat at home, have something to play for & we've seen a lot of poor performances away from home.

A win on Saturday & it's on.

John, totally agree with you. The key match is next week v Bournemouth. Win that one and I think we would get 5th only because our last 2 games are against probable Europa League finalists so, I can’t see either of them being arsed with the league matches. However, lose against the Cherries and I think Europa League beckons for us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 04, 2025, 10:01:04 PM
Yup Bournemouth will be really tough, but if we come through it we’re well set up.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on May 04, 2025, 10:04:37 PM
I think Chelsea winning today has made it VERY difficult for us.  I had today's game as a definite Liverpool win since looking at the run-in back in Feb, simply because I didn't think Arsenal would have handed them the league with four games to go.

I've thought for the last month that our only chance was to get ahead of both Forest and Chelsea (Newcastle had great form, and Man City always find a way).  I still think we'll overtake Forest, but Chelsea seems unlikely now.  With the goal difference, they're effectively four points ahead now.  Strangely, our best bet for 5th is probably Newcastle making themself safe in the top 5 by beating Chelsea pretty comprehensively next Sunday.

Bournemouth is our biggest game, I think. They have the most to play for, and are only one place behind us in the table.  Win, and we'd get ourselves to 63 points and level with Newcastle and Chelsea before they play each other.  If we win, the loser of that game would be shitting it.

It really couldn't be more different to last season, where our only competition was a Spurs side imploding even more than we were.  This year, we're one of five competing for three places, and unfortunately most of the teams are in decent form.

I still think we'll go into the last day with a mathematical chance, which didn't look remotely likely back in Feb when we were languishing in 9th having drawn at home with Ipswich.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Legion on May 04, 2025, 10:53:32 PM
Sure, heaven forbid people express an opinion on a football forum.

I’ll never understand this forum.

If people disagree just post your own views rather than sneering. Is it really so difficult?

It’s almost cultural in here now to go for the man rather than the ball!

After only 19 posts?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on May 04, 2025, 11:02:53 PM
Sure, heaven forbid people express an opinion on a football forum.

I’ll never understand this forum.

If people disagree just post your own views rather than sneering. Is it really so difficult?

It’s almost cultural in here now to go for the man rather than the ball!

He says, sneeringly.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on May 04, 2025, 11:16:00 PM
We still have a chance that’s all that matters.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chip Butty 111 on May 04, 2025, 11:21:45 PM
Sure, heaven forbid people express an opinion on a football forum.

I’ll never understand this forum.

If people disagree just post your own views rather than sneering. Is it really so difficult?

It’s almost cultural in here now to go for the man rather than the ball!

After only 19 posts?
Must be a quick learner ?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Crown Hill on May 04, 2025, 11:25:55 PM
Sure, heaven forbid people express an opinion on a football forum.

I’ll never understand this forum.

If people disagree just post your own views rather than sneering. Is it really so difficult?

It’s almost cultural in here now to go for the man rather than the ball!

He says, sneeringly.

QED
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: wince on May 04, 2025, 11:45:40 PM
We all disagree with each other. It’s part of the fun. But why bother posting if you know what it’s like?

Ffs season end cannot come quick enough and we can all decamp into the off topic thread for a bit after we qualify for Europe
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 05, 2025, 12:00:52 AM
No chance of top 5 if Unai employs same tactics and team selections as he did against Man City and Palace.

The same as he did against Fulham?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 05, 2025, 12:03:02 AM
Ffs season end cannot come quick enough and we can all decamp into the off topic thread for a bit after we qualify for the Champions League.

Spot on.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on May 05, 2025, 01:13:26 AM
Sure, heaven forbid people express an opinion on a football forum.

I’ll never understand this forum.

If people disagree just post your own views rather than sneering. Is it really so difficult?

It’s almost cultural in here now to go for the man rather than the ball!

He says, sneeringly.

QED

OMG lads. He's using Latin! Definitely a brand new non-sneering user. Shit... am I 'playing the man'? What if you get some of the ball with the man? What about a challenge that would have been a foul anywhere outside of the box? I don't know what is culturally acceptable on here nowadays.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: RamboandBruno on May 05, 2025, 06:45:14 AM
I think Chelsea winning today has made it VERY difficult for us.  I had today's game as a definite Liverpool win since looking at the run-in back in Feb, simply because I didn't think Arsenal would have handed them the league with four games to go.

I've thought for the last month that our only chance was to get ahead of both Forest and Chelsea (Newcastle had great form, and Man City always find a way).  I still think we'll overtake Forest, but Chelsea seems unlikely now.  With the goal difference, they're effectively four points ahead now.  Strangely, our best bet for 5th is probably Newcastle making themself safe in the top 5 by beating Chelsea pretty comprehensively next Sunday.

Bournemouth is our biggest game, I think. They have the most to play for, and are only one place behind us in the table.  Win, and we'd get ourselves to 63 points and level with Newcastle and Chelsea before they play each other.  If we win, the loser of that game would be shitting it.

It really couldn't be more different to last season, where our only competition was a Spurs side imploding even more than we were.  This year, we're one of five competing for three places, and unfortunately most of the teams are in decent form.

I still think we'll go into the last day with a mathematical chance, which didn't look remotely likely back in Feb when we were languishing in 9th having drawn at home with Ipswich.
Agree with you Smithy, in my own little predictor I didn’t have Chelsea getting many more points, so that’s got blown already after yesterday. Obviously every game is huge now, but Bournemouth does now have the feel of win or bust in regards to the CL. Win and with at least of one of Chelsea or Newcastle dropping points and we are back in the game. I think your right about Newcastle though, we could almost do with them steamrolling Chelsea, so its us Forest and Chelsea battling for that last place.
If we can be in with a shout going into that last game, its all we can ask for really, hopefully beat man utd and hope Forest and Chelsea cancel each other out.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: john2710 on May 05, 2025, 07:34:44 AM
Sure, heaven forbid people express an opinion on a football forum.

I’ll never understand this forum.

If people disagree just post your own views rather than sneering. Is it really so difficult?

It’s almost cultural in here now to go for the man rather than the ball!

He says, sneeringly.

QED

OMG lads. He's using Latin! Definitely a brand new non-sneering user. Shit... am I 'playing the man'? What if you get some of the ball with the man? What about a challenge that would have been a foul anywhere outside of the box? I don't know what is culturally acceptable on here nowadays.

Following through is definitely not acceptable.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 05, 2025, 09:28:43 AM
I think the Bournemouth game is critical. I’m confident at home vs Spurs and if we have a shot last day anything can happen.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 05, 2025, 09:32:05 AM
I said before Man C that 4 wins will see us in the CL. Still believe that winning the last 3 will do it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dick Edwards on May 05, 2025, 09:48:20 AM
There's plenty of potential twists left in this season. We've won six of the last seven. That form is going to provide sleepless nights for the other candidates if we maintain it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on May 05, 2025, 09:48:43 AM
If we win the last 3 games we will have deserved it.  It's starting to look like a win for either Newcastle or Chelsea in their game against each other is the best result for us. 

We need Palace to be 'Palace v Villa' Palace later today too. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 05, 2025, 10:00:49 AM
I think if Forest win tonight we are into miracle territory, with a guaranteed three points to come on Saturday against Leicester. We aren't catching Man City, who still have to play Southampton, so a Forest win tonight means we probably have to finish above Chelsea and Newcastle. I can't see that happening. If Palace play like they did the last two times we wanted a favour from them, we're fucked.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Pete3206 on May 05, 2025, 10:06:21 AM
I don't trust us to get over the line at Bournemouth to be honest.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 05, 2025, 10:06:48 AM
It’d be unhelpful definitely, but if we win all three (which we have to really), then they still need to win two of their last three.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 05, 2025, 10:26:51 AM
Hopefully Palace don't leave key players out and they show some interest tonight . I fear the worst though and will be backing Forest at the bookies
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on May 05, 2025, 06:53:31 PM
Palace's record against Forest is atrocious. Something like 1 League win in the last 11 meetings.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: BoVillan esq on May 05, 2025, 07:07:38 PM
Lot on tonight's game, so far so good, teams around us dropping points all over, next hurdle kicks off shortly.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 05, 2025, 10:02:25 PM
That’ll do, if we win all three then Forest have to win all three to finish in front of us now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: villa for life on May 05, 2025, 10:07:22 PM
That’ll do, if we win all three then Forest have to win all three to finish in front of us now.

They just need to match our results : win , draw or lose
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 05, 2025, 10:08:26 PM
Not a terrible weekend. The teams who had the home games all won (us, Citeh, Chelsea) and the competitors playing away both drew (Fores, Newcastle). Our turn to play away next weekend and we'll need a result at Bournemouth.

Brighton and Palace had the best chances at the death in their games but Liverpool being lacklustre at Chelsea was the biggest blow. But hopefully not fatal.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on May 05, 2025, 10:11:25 PM
gained points on 2 of the 4 teams we want to finish above - keep winning and hope for the best
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: letsshakehands on May 05, 2025, 10:12:58 PM
If we win all 3, which I think we've thought we'd have to for a while, and Chelsea draw against Newcastle and Forest, we're 5th. Starting to sound a bit more possible.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on May 05, 2025, 10:14:43 PM
Chelsea still have Newcastle and Forest to play. They can’t all win all of those.

If we keep winning, we get CL football. Get that and it’ll be a pretty decent season all things considered.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 05, 2025, 10:18:17 PM
Chelsea still have Newcastle and Forest to play. They can’t all win all of those.

If we keep winning, we get CL football. Get that and it’ll be a pretty decent season all things considered.

If Newcastle and Chelsea draw that’d be a perfect result for us. It would mean they both need to win the other two games.

All the predicated on us winning all three, but if we don’t I think we’re out of the conversation.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Astnor on May 05, 2025, 10:21:25 PM
Newcastle will not win away to Arsenal as Arsenal will go for it after lost to PSG and then being out of CL. Newcastle and Chelsea will draw next weekend for sure and we win our last three (that is not for sure though). Fixed.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Steve67 on May 05, 2025, 10:22:10 PM
I still can’t see us doing it to be honest, even though some of the teams above us have to play each other. Our goal difference is a pisser too. Would love to be wrong, really want to be wrong.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on May 05, 2025, 10:23:44 PM
Newcastle will not win away to Arsenal as Arsenal will go for it after lost to PSG and then being out of CL. Newcastle and Chelsea will draw next weekend for sure and we win our last three (that is not for sure though). Fixed.

Arsenal need results to finish second, Chelsea in 5th are only 4 points behind them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 05, 2025, 10:26:17 PM
Newcastle will not win away to Arsenal as Arsenal will go for it after lost to PSG and then being out of CL. Newcastle and Chelsea will draw next weekend for sure and we win our last three (that is not for sure though). Fixed.

They often beat Arsenal, but hopefully not this time.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on May 05, 2025, 10:28:39 PM
I’ve gone from yes, to no to fuck knows. I’m sticking on that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 05, 2025, 10:35:56 PM
Newcastle will not win away to Arsenal as Arsenal will go for it after lost to PSG and then being out of CL. Newcastle and Chelsea will draw next weekend for sure and we win our last three (that is not for sure though). Fixed.

Arsenal need results to finish second, Chelsea in 5th are only 4 points behind them.

They have their Southampton voucher last game of the season.

If it weren't for that, I reckon there would be a lot more chat about how they were going to fuck the whole thing.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 05, 2025, 10:38:02 PM
People are trusting Arsenal. Have you not learned?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: IFWaters on May 05, 2025, 10:42:43 PM
Say we win all 3 and get 69 points

Say Newcastle and Chelsea draw and forest beat Leicester then they are all on 64 with 2 games left

Then if any of the 3 of them don't win both their remaining games then they we finish ahead of them. Forest home to Chelsea last game so 69 points would guarantee 6th at least
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on May 05, 2025, 10:43:44 PM
Say we win all 3 and get 69 points

Say Newcastle and Chelsea draw and forest beat Leicester then they are all on 64 with 2 games left

Then if any of the 3 of them don't win both their remaining games then they we finish ahead of them. Forest home to Chelsea last game so 69 points would guarantee 6th at least
Good work!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on May 05, 2025, 10:44:34 PM
I dont think we will - but wouldnt bet against us ;-)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olof's Beard on May 05, 2025, 11:10:20 PM
That Man City winner was such a fecker. We would be within a single result of all four of the teams ahead of us if we had held on for two more minutes. As it is, we are within a single result of just one of them given the goal difference.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ian. on May 05, 2025, 11:12:26 PM
That Man City winner was such a fecker. We would be within a single result of all four of the teams ahead of us if we had held on for two more minutes. As it is, we are within a single result of just one of them given the goal difference.

And losing those two late goals against our closest side Forest!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on May 05, 2025, 11:15:50 PM
Newcastle will not win away to Arsenal as Arsenal will go for it after lost to PSG and then being out of CL. Newcastle and Chelsea will draw next weekend for sure and we win our last three (that is not for sure though). Fixed.

Arsenal need results to finish second, Chelsea in 5th are only 4 points behind them.

They have their Southampton voucher last game of the season.

If it weren't for that, I reckon there would be a lot more chat about how they were going to fuck the whole thing.

Didn’t realise but having just looked at Arsenal’ fixtures they’ll still need something against Newcastle and Liverpool as well or Man City will take second spot.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 05, 2025, 11:45:13 PM
That’ll do, if we win all three then Forest have to win all three to finish in front of us now.

They just need to match our results : win , draw or lose

If we win all three, they have to win all three to stay ahead of us. Pretty much exactly as PWA stated. If they do that then another team above us as also dropped points. Whether that would be enough to put us 5th is another matter.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 06, 2025, 12:08:16 AM
Need to win all three. With that in mind...

...great result tonight. Don't want to sound too much like a broken record, but it doesn't matter if any of them draw or lose, just that they drop points in two games. There is no difference.

The requirement is now:

Forest - 1 game
Chelsea and Newcastle - 2 games

If Newcastle and Chelsea draw that would bring them both down to one game. I don't think Forest have it in them to win all three now, so that would leave us needing one game involving a draw or a loss from:

Arsenal - Newcastle
Newcastle - Everton
Chelsea - Man Utd
Forest - Chelsea

Which will probably happen. So next weekend we need to beat Bournemouth and hope those two draw. If that happens I think we'll do it. If we don't beat Bournemouth it ain't happening. If one of them wins it reduces the chances as I'd say whoever wins is safe, as they'll probably win one of those other fixtures.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: JJ-AV on May 06, 2025, 05:46:18 AM
Ideally, we need Chelsea and Newcastle to draw at St James’ and Newcastle to not win at Arsenal

If we win our two that puts us ahead of Newcastle and, worst case scenario within 1 point of Forest and Chelsea going in to the final day, where we’d know a win for us would qualify us at one of their expense.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 06, 2025, 05:47:40 AM
It’s almost certainly going to the last game.
You can make a case for all of them and I can imagine a scenario where we 7 points is enough.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on May 06, 2025, 06:35:31 AM
Aren't Newcastle usually dreadful in London?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on May 06, 2025, 06:41:44 AM
Win all three games and we are in the CL, seven may get us in, anything less and nope. Hopefully we've had our little blip and it's shit or bust from here...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 06, 2025, 06:59:27 AM
That’ll do, if we win all three then Forest have to win all three to finish in front of us now.

They just need to match our results : win , draw or lose

Yes that’s true, but I’m talking about our chances of top 5 and if we don’t win all three realistically there’s no chance of us making top 5.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dick Edwards on May 06, 2025, 07:27:03 AM
Aren't Newcastle usually dreadful in London?
Well they weren't in the League Cup semi final at Arsenal a couple of months ago.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Steve67 on May 06, 2025, 07:34:28 AM
Arsenal are very much in danger of spursing it!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 06, 2025, 09:08:05 AM
Ideally, we need Chelsea and Newcastle to draw at St James’ and Newcastle to not win at Arsenal

If we win our two that puts us ahead of Newcastle and, worst case scenario within 1 point of Forest and Chelsea going in to the final day, where we’d know a win for us would qualify us at one of their expense.

Yep, we obviously need to win at Bournemouth, but the best result for us would probably be Newcastle and Chelsea drawing.  Would put us a point behind both and them facing big games the following week. 

Win both our games and we could potentially be above both going into the last game. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeS on May 06, 2025, 09:54:50 AM
I did one of those predictors and tried various scenarios. Obviously, we need 9 points. But in a few of the tested outcomes, we pip Newcastle and Forest. In fact, Newcastle ended up 7th in a couple.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on May 06, 2025, 09:56:19 AM
I not watching other games or doing any predictor stuff, we need to win all our games and if we do I'm in no doubt we will finish in the top 5.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Archbishop Herbert Cockthrottle on May 06, 2025, 10:10:34 AM
We're a mere afterthought looking at BBC Sport this morning and that's how I like it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on May 06, 2025, 10:12:32 AM
We're a mere afterthought looking at BBC Sport this morning and that's how I like it.

Yes I noticed that, there doesn't seem to any comprehension that the teams above us have to play each other.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 06, 2025, 10:18:14 AM
BBC just now -

Don't worry Aston Villa fans, we've not forgotten about you.

Unai Emery's side were described by one reader, earlier this morning, as a potential "wildcard" for Champions League qualification.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 06, 2025, 10:20:01 AM
Ipswich Town recently won at Bournemouth. We need to go there full of belief and blow them away.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 06, 2025, 10:53:45 AM
BBC just now -

Don't worry Aston Villa fans, we've not forgotten about you.

Unai Emery's side were described by one reader, earlier this morning, as a potential "wildcard" for Champions League qualification.


Well someone did write in can call us a wildcard. So not sure what the point is.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rioch is King on May 06, 2025, 01:27:56 PM
Ipswich Town recently won at Bournemouth. We need to go there full of belief and blow them away.

About time someone mentioned Ipswich
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 06, 2025, 02:18:24 PM
Sounded like similar to our home game. Their keeper had a blinder plus some misses from Bournemouth, and Ipswich scored from their only shots on target.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on May 06, 2025, 03:02:31 PM
Anyone who thinks 7 points is enough obviously hasn't seen our goal difference. Forest have Leicester and West Ham to get them on to 67. I know it can happen, but it's unlikely. Win all 3, then it's on, but I don't see anything fewer succeeding.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Marlon From Bearwood on May 06, 2025, 03:26:30 PM
There’s plenty of unpredictable results at this stage of the season.

Forest have just taken one point from their last two games, which they would class as very disappointing. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if they only took 5 points from their last three games, in which case we’d finish above them with another 7.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on May 06, 2025, 03:45:23 PM
Which would be alright if Chelsea didn't also only need 4 points to beat us only getting 7. So they can help us jump Forest while pushing themselves further away. If it was just one team we needed to leap above, maybe, but not two, and with our GD. Just don't see 7 doing it at all.

I'm pretty confident we will finish above Forest, anyway, should we beat Bournemouth. I just did a score predictor to pass the time and had us, Newcastle and Chelsea all getting 69 points for a nice exciting nightmare.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on May 06, 2025, 03:56:47 PM
Hoping Leicester kill themselves against Forest, as it's a local Derby.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Monty on May 06, 2025, 04:06:28 PM
Hoping Leicester kill themselves against Forest, as it's a local Derby.

For Vardy - on 199 Leicester goals - his last. Here's hoping...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on May 06, 2025, 04:12:47 PM
Hoping Leicester kill themselves against Forest, as it's a local Derby.

I don't think there's a stonger motivating force in football than spoiling the other teams party, especially when they're up the road.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 06, 2025, 04:20:40 PM
I'm pretty confident we will finish above Forest, anyway, should we beat Bournemouth. I just did a score predictor to pass the time and had us, Newcastle and Chelsea all getting 69 points for a nice exciting nightmare.

This not-wholly-serious piece (https://www.football365.com/news/opinion-arsenal-season-implode-arteta-champions-league-spurs-bottle-job) obviously written to wind up Arsenal fans does a nice round-by-round assessment and comes up a table going into the final day of:

Quote
2) Manchester City – 70 points, +31 goal difference
3) Arsenal – 67 points, +29 goal difference
4) Chelsea – 67 points, +24 goal difference
5) Newcastle – 67 points, +23 goal difference
6) Nottingham Forest – 67 points, +17 goal difference
7) Aston Villa – 66 points, +11 goal difference

Which would be pretty nerve-wracking. Thinking about it though, I'd be more confident of a result at Man Utd if we're not sitting in 3rd - 5th at the start of the match.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on May 06, 2025, 04:25:08 PM
I'm pretty confident we will finish above Forest, anyway, should we beat Bournemouth. I just did a score predictor to pass the time and had us, Newcastle and Chelsea all getting 69 points for a nice exciting nightmare.

This not-wholly-serious piece (https://www.football365.com/news/opinion-arsenal-season-implode-arteta-champions-league-spurs-bottle-job) obviously written to wind up Arsenal fans does a nice round-by-round assessment and comes up a table going into the final day of:

Quote
2) Manchester City – 70 points, +31 goal difference
3) Arsenal – 67 points, +29 goal difference
4) Chelsea – 67 points, +24 goal difference
5) Newcastle – 67 points, +23 goal difference
6) Nottingham Forest – 67 points, +17 goal difference
7) Aston Villa – 66 points, +11 goal difference

Which would be pretty nerve-wracking. Thinking about it though, I'd be more confident of a result at Man Utd if we're not sitting in 3rd - 5th at the start of the match.

Yeah, I definitely know what you mean by that, and I suspect it is how it will play out. Chelsea - Forest draw... the dream.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Steve67 on May 06, 2025, 04:28:49 PM
Is it better to chase at this point, with the games we have, or to be looking down and hoping not to get caught, but perhaps taking things for granted?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 06, 2025, 04:53:24 PM
Better to have the points on the board rather than having to rely on the numerous let-down bastards in the league that never help us out.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 06, 2025, 05:14:17 PM
All the clichés are true, all about doing our own job. Three wins and I'm confident we'll do it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on May 06, 2025, 05:20:26 PM
Yep - all we can do is the things within our power to influence, ie win all the remaining matches. It's nice when other results go your way, but those chips will fall where they fall.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eddiemunster on May 06, 2025, 06:23:47 PM
Would hope that we do qualify, but can't see it.
We've dropped too many points, draws that should have been wins and losses that should have been draws.
Imagine how many points we'd have got, prior to the Jan transfer window, if we'd got the recruits earlier and didn't have the injuries that we had.
I still think we'll get into Europe, just not in the CL!!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 06, 2025, 06:35:58 PM
I still think we'll get into Europe, just not in the CL!!

It would be a spectacular collapse if we didn't get into Europe. It would require us winning no more matches for the rest of the season AND Palace beating Man City in the FA Cup final.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on May 06, 2025, 06:51:34 PM
If we get the 3 wins it would be incredible bad luck to not get 5th and impossible to finish below 6th.

Chelsea and Newcastle are important ones though, playing each other and then with games against Forest and Arsenal there's a lot of points to be dropped there.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 06, 2025, 06:53:38 PM
Arsenal.

FFS, how many times?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Archbishop Herbert Cockthrottle on May 06, 2025, 07:03:05 PM
I must admit that I've been fretting about this dilemma. I've tried the permutations, read through the expert analysis and submerged myself in Opta statistics but to no avail. So this evening, I turned to my trusty old Magic 8 Ball and asked the question, will we qualify for the Champions League?


(https://i.ibb.co/SDj0ww0p/file-00000000dc60620a8d6a0425f013eaaa-1.png) (https://ibb.co/SDj0ww0p)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on May 06, 2025, 08:16:05 PM
Would hope that we do qualify, but can't see it.
We've dropped too many points, draws that should have been wins and losses that should have been draws.
Imagine how many points we'd have got, prior to the Jan transfer window, if we'd got the recruits earlier and didn't have the injuries that we had.
I still think we'll get into Europe, just not in the CL!!


Yeah, I'm slowly starting to feel that way.  If we win the last three (still entirely possible), that would be 9 wins out of 10 to end our season.  That's title-winning form, not just CL qualifying form!  We've just had too much ground to make up, so we're relying on at least two other teams dropping enough points, and that looks less likely as each round of matches passes.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tony Daleys Shorts on May 06, 2025, 09:12:54 PM
The Spurs game being moved forward could be beneficial in allowing us to get points on the board a put pressure on our rivals.

Should we win of course.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Des Little on May 06, 2025, 09:36:35 PM
The Spurs game being moved forward could be beneficial in allowing us to get points on the board a put pressure on our rivals.

Should we win of course.

*when
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 06, 2025, 09:46:39 PM
The Spurs game being moved forward could be beneficial in allowing us to get points on the board a put pressure on our rivals.

Should we win of course.
Unless we beat Bournemouth there won't be so much riding on this game .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on May 06, 2025, 10:39:00 PM
The Spurs game being moved forward could be beneficial in allowing us to get points on the board a put pressure on our rivals.

Should we win of course.
Unless we beat Bournemouth there won't be so much riding on this game .

Always rely on Tim to bring the most depressing slant to the discussion.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on May 06, 2025, 10:44:43 PM
The Spurs game being moved forward could be beneficial in allowing us to get points on the board a put pressure on our rivals.

Should we win of course.
Unless we beat Bournemouth there won't be so much riding on this game .

Always rely on Tim to bring the most depressing slant to the discussion.

He just sees things we can't. A revolutionary.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 06, 2025, 10:58:56 PM
The Spurs game being moved forward could be beneficial in allowing us to get points on the board a put pressure on our rivals.

Should we win of course.
Unless we beat Bournemouth there won't be so much riding on this game .

Always rely on Tim to bring the most depressing slant to the discussion.

He just sees things we can't. A revolutionary.
One cup final at a time . Beat Bournemouth and the Spurs Friday night game becomes massive . UTV .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on May 06, 2025, 11:01:49 PM
Shit... really?!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 06, 2025, 11:09:48 PM
I'd probably put myself down as a VillaTim skeptic, but I find his miseryarsedom more comforting than any "we'll twat everyone" confidence, at the business end of the season. With even brontebilly suddenly dishing out sixes and sevens without a care in the world, VT's posts provide a much needed semblance of calm.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 06, 2025, 11:11:22 PM
We'll twat Bournemouth 8-0, Spurs 8-0 and sort out the GD.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villa Lew on May 06, 2025, 11:13:31 PM
We'll twat Bournemouth 8-0, Spurs 8-0 and sort out the GD.
That's what I like positive thinking.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on May 06, 2025, 11:30:57 PM
I'd probably put myself down as a VillaTim skeptic, but I find his miseryarsedom more comforting than any "we'll twat everyone" confidence, at the business end of the season. With even brontebilly suddenly dishing out sixes and sevens without a care in the world, VT's posts provide a much needed semblance of calm.

We'll twat everyone.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 07, 2025, 12:07:18 AM
Would hope that we do qualify, but can't see it.
We've dropped too many points, draws that should have been wins and losses that should have been draws.
Imagine how many points we'd have got, prior to the Jan transfer window, if we'd got the recruits earlier and didn't have the injuries that we had.
I still think we'll get into Europe, just not in the CL!!

If it wasn't for the financial difference of being in the Champions League, I would be quite content with the Europa League or even the Conference League next season. 

The new format makes those two competitions very winnable and there would be less exertion given that we could probably field a weakened side in a lot of the group games.

Being in the Champions League has been special this season though and more than anything, there would be a financial implication to missing out.  It is also unquestionable that the profile of the club has been bigger this season given our involvement in the Champions League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on May 07, 2025, 12:18:34 AM
I'd probably put myself down as a VillaTim skeptic, but I find his miseryarsedom more comforting than any "we'll twat everyone" confidence, at the business end of the season. With even brontebilly suddenly dishing out sixes and sevens without a care in the world, VT's posts provide a much needed semblance of calm.

It's not the miseryarseness, it's the blatantly obviousnessness. I'm down with misery. *insert Bane voice* I was born it, molded by it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 07, 2025, 01:13:49 AM
The Spurs game being moved forward could be beneficial in allowing us to get points on the board a put pressure on our rivals.

Should we win of course.
Unless we beat Bournemouth there won't be so much riding on this game .

Always rely on Tim to bring the most depressing slant to the discussion.

He just sees things we can't. A revolutionary.

Like Noel Gallagher? We see things they'll never see
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 07, 2025, 03:18:00 PM
If it goes to the last day…..we’ve told Man Utd we will take Rashford if we qualify for the CL. Let that sink in.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on May 07, 2025, 03:21:26 PM
I've taken on kitchen deliveries to reluctant customers. Let that sink in.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on May 07, 2025, 03:27:46 PM
If it goes to the last day…..we’ve told Man Utd we will take Rashford if we qualify for the CL. Let that sink in.

They beat us and sell him to Forest or Chelsea instead.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 07, 2025, 06:08:54 PM
I've taken on kitchen deliveries to reluctant customers. Let that sink in.

Kitchen-sink drama at its finest!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SteveN on May 07, 2025, 07:31:05 PM
Apologies if this has been covered before.
If we finish 7th we are in the Conference?
If Man City finish in the top5 and win the FA Cup then they will vacate their Europa place which will go the best placed team in the league - us?
Likewise if Chelsea finish in the top 5 and win the Conference then they will vacate their Europa place and that will come to us?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on May 07, 2025, 07:33:19 PM
Apologies if this has been covered before.
If we finish 7th we are in the Conference?
If Man City finish in the top5 and win the FA Cup then they will vacate their Europa place which will go the best placed team in the league - us?
Likewise if Chelsea finish in the top 5 and win the Conference then they will vacate their Europa place and that will come to us?

Man City win the cup 7th = Europa
Palace win the cup 7th = Conference
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on May 07, 2025, 08:06:10 PM
I'd probably put myself down as a VillaTim skeptic, but I find his miseryarsedom more comforting than any "we'll twat everyone" confidence, at the business end of the season. With even brontebilly suddenly dishing out sixes and sevens without a care in the world, VT's posts provide a much needed semblance of calm.

We'll twat everyone.

We shall twat them on the beaches, we shall twat them on the landing grounds, we shall twat them in the fields and in the streets, we shall twat them in the hills; we shall never stop twatting them, the lot of them.

The fucking twats.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 07, 2025, 09:08:06 PM
Apologies if this has been covered before.
If we finish 7th we are in the Conference?
If Man City finish in the top5 and win the FA Cup then they will vacate their Europa place which will go the best placed team in the league - us?
Likewise if Chelsea finish in the top 5 and win the Conference then they will vacate their Europa place and that will come to us?
Chelsea winning the Conference makes no difference to league placings. There would just be one less English club in there.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 07, 2025, 09:55:30 PM
Yeah Chelsea's Europa place for winning Conference is not passed on. In a strange quirk, I saw somewhere that if they win the Conference so qualify for Europa and finish in the Conference qualifying spot then the Conference spot doesn't pass on either and there just won't be an English team in the Conference next season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 07, 2025, 09:56:32 PM
Stop saying Conference!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: IFWaters on May 07, 2025, 09:59:19 PM
Apologies if this has been covered before.
If we finish 7th we are in the Conference?
If Man City finish in the top5 and win the FA Cup then they will vacate their Europa place which will go the best placed team in the league - us?
Likewise if Chelsea finish in the top 5 and win the Conference then they will vacate their Europa place and that will come to us?
Chelsea winning the Conference makes no difference to league placings. There would just be one less English club in there.
Marvellous
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 07, 2025, 10:32:08 PM
If Villa aren't involved, a Conference League with no English team would be my preference.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 07, 2025, 11:41:16 PM
If Villa aren't involved, a Conference League with no English team would be my preference.

If it is going to be a club like Chelsea who have just sneered at it all the way through, then maybe.  I remember the celebrations at Villa Park when we got into it though, so I certainly wouldn't begrudge a club who wanted a taste of European football getting into it. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 08, 2025, 09:48:33 PM
Got to win against Bournemouth. We need to play with a swagger and some authority. I think we win that game and it’s really on, if we don’t it’s gone.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on May 08, 2025, 09:50:15 PM
Got to find against Bournemouth. We need to play with a swagger and some authority. I think we win that game and it’s really on, if we don’t it’s gone.
Agreed
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 08, 2025, 10:06:07 PM
Got to win against Bournemouth. We need to play with a swagger and some authority. I think we win that game and it’s really on, if we don’t it’s gone.

What if we draw which is probably the likely result ?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 08, 2025, 10:09:55 PM
I think if we draw we're stuffed - 67 is then the maximum points haul and two teams matching that at the very least looks highly likely.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeS on May 09, 2025, 12:45:00 PM
Yes, it is wins all the way from here. It’s possible. Very possible
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 09, 2025, 12:57:47 PM
It's so difficult now, even a win on Saturday we are unlikely to move up from 7th given Forest fixture and our poor GD.
All we can do is win though and take it to next weekend and rely on us winning again and someone screwing up.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 09, 2025, 01:14:07 PM
This weekend is about staying in it - which means winning. We do that and we’ll definitely make ground on Newcastle, Chelsea, or, probably ideally, both.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 09, 2025, 01:25:51 PM
Definitely feels like win or bust now
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on May 09, 2025, 01:41:40 PM
3 wins is what's required.  Do that and I think we'll just about get over the line.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 09, 2025, 01:47:52 PM
3 wins is what's required.  Do that and I think we'll just about get over the line.

If we win three, it means that pretty much everyone else has to win all theirs as well (given Newcastle vs Chelsea and Forest vs Chelsea mean there will be the guarantee of points dropped elsewhere).

It doesn't quite make it mathematically certain, but it would be a strange set of circumstances if three wins didn't equate to at least fifth.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 09, 2025, 01:49:28 PM
Yep, just need to do our bit. If 3 wins are not enough to do it, then so be it, but all we can do is keep the pressure on and hope another team buckles. If we finish on 69 points, that will be noice, and show obvious improvement on last season both in points, and Cup / Euro improvements.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Keeno on May 09, 2025, 02:17:21 PM
It's so difficult now, even a win on Saturday we are unlikely to move up from 7th given Forest fixture and our poor GD.
All we can do is win though and take it to next weekend and rely on us winning again and someone screwing up.

League position doesn't really matter after this weekend. It'll go to the final day either way - we just have to win every game.

Bottom line is: if Newcastle and Chelsea draw, and Newcastle don't beat Arsenal away at the Emirates, we're in.

IF we win all three of course - but that has to happen in any scenario.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on May 10, 2025, 07:33:59 PM
We just might you know…
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 10, 2025, 07:37:17 PM
Top 7 guaranteed. Europe here we come. Again.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 10, 2025, 07:42:49 PM
Now we'll see what the remaining 3 are made of this week.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 10, 2025, 07:45:23 PM
That is a colossal win - absolutely massive.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aldridgeboy on May 10, 2025, 07:45:33 PM
Top 7 guaranteed. Europe here we come. Again.

If palace win the cup and Chelsea win the conference can 7th miss out still?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 10, 2025, 07:46:11 PM
Top 7 guaranteed. Europe here we come. Again.

If palace win the cup and Chelsea win the conference can 7th miss out still?

No.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aldridgeboy on May 10, 2025, 07:49:13 PM
Top 7 guaranteed. Europe here we come. Again.

If palace win the cup and Chelsea win the conference can 7th miss out still?

No.

Excellent , thank you PWS
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 10, 2025, 07:49:25 PM
Top 7 guaranteed. Europe here we come. Again.

If palace win the cup and Chelsea win the conference can 7th miss out still?

Top five is Champs, 6th is Uefa, 7th is Conference as is. Only change would be if Citeh win the cup which would mean 7th is Uefa and 8th is Conference.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on May 10, 2025, 07:50:10 PM
6 out of 6 points and yes,
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: garyellis on May 10, 2025, 07:50:39 PM
So to clarify we need 1 point to be guaranteed to be at least in the Europa league next season?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 10, 2025, 07:52:54 PM
The unexpected Southampton result has dragged Citeh back into the reckoning. Didn't we have to play Liverpool in Feb because that "was the first available fixture gap". How come Citeh match is allowed after the FA Cup as surely the first available fixture is this Tuesday/ Wednesday?

But they do have to play on the Tuesday after the FA Cup and then the Sunday.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 10, 2025, 07:55:07 PM
We could go into the last 2 games with teams on 65, 64, 64, 64, 63.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 10, 2025, 07:56:17 PM
So to clarify we need 1 point to be guaranteed to be at least in the Europa league next season?
No because we are 6th with Forest 2 points below us and 3 games to play. We would have to finish above teams above us to guarantee Europa. We have currently only guaranteed Conference but if next Sunday Citeh win the cup, we have guaranteed Europa. However by that point we should be on 66 points and into the top five.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chris_Jephcott on May 10, 2025, 08:00:19 PM
This is all much more exciting than watching the last game of the season from beneath a blanket, wondering if we’d be relegated…

We’re doing all we can can do.

I’m frustrated and gutted about all the last minute goals we’ve conceded this season. If we hadn’t, this would have been sewn up by now.

But hey, I’ll take Europa over being mid-table. It’s been a tough season and we’ve been very inconsistent. Hopefully we’ve learnt lessons for next season.

It’s almost fantastic that we, as a fanbase, would almost be disappointed if it was Europa over CL!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on May 10, 2025, 08:01:51 PM
It's not beyond the realms of possibility for a situation where if we win our last game we beat Manchester City to fifth. Look who we've got last game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 10, 2025, 08:03:36 PM
I wonder if they'll make a banner for us. Good Luck Villa from the City of London.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on May 10, 2025, 08:03:58 PM
This is all much more exciting than watching the last game of the season from beneath a blanket, wondering if we’d be relegated…

We’re doing all we can can do.

I’m frustrated and gutted about all the last minute goals we’ve conceded this season. If we hadn’t, this would have been sewn up by now.

But hey, I’ll take Europa over being mid-table. It’s been a tough season and we’ve been very inconsistent. Hopefully we’ve learnt lessons for next season.

It’s almost fantastic that we, as a fanbase, would almost be disappointed if it was Europa over CL!

All this.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 10, 2025, 08:09:39 PM
Interesting at the moment. Arse on 67 and now have to play Plop at Anfield. For all the "being on the beach", I'm sure Arteta's comments about they finished on higher points last two seasons will have riled them.

Citeh drop points against the bottom of the table are on 65. They have to play three games in a week including Bournemouth and Fulham. If Citeh have won the cup it puts Europe in play for 8th for Bournemouth specifically if not still Fulham.

Geordies and Chelsea on 63 with us and are playing tomorrow.

Us 63.

Forest on 61 and playing their local rivals tomorrow.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 10, 2025, 08:11:06 PM
Hoping for a draw tomorrow between Newcastle and Chelsea. That way, they'd both need to win both their last two games to finish above us, should we win our last two.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 10, 2025, 08:12:52 PM
Yeah draw or Chelsea win for me.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: alan_clarke on May 10, 2025, 08:13:24 PM
We could well be 1pt behind Arsenal going into the last game of the season…
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 10, 2025, 08:15:00 PM
We could well be 1pt behind Arsenal going into the last game of the season…

I really hope we aren't.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: maidstonevillain on May 10, 2025, 08:24:31 PM
Hoping for a draw tomorrow between Newcastle and Chelsea. That way, they'd both need to win both their last two games to finish above us, should we win our last two.

I was thinking that a good scenario would be for Chelsea to beat Newcastle and to beat Forest. But if we win our 2 games, and Chelsea draw those 2 games, we are guaranteed CL.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chris_Jephcott on May 10, 2025, 08:30:01 PM
I’m looking at the remaining games now, trying to work out who’s doing what and when.

Honestly, I have no idea how this is going to work out or who I want to win out of Chelsea or Newcastle.

Arsenal's remaining fixtures

May 11: Liverpool (a)
May 18: Newcastle (h)
May 25: Southampton (a)

Manchester City's remaining fixtures

May 20: Bournemouth (h)
May 25: Fulham (a)

Nottingham Forest's remaining fixtures

May 11: Leicester (h)
May 18: West Ham (a)
May 25: Chelsea (h)

Newcastle's remaining fixtures

May 11: Chelsea (h)
May 18: Arsenal (a)
May 25: Everton (h)

Chelsea's remaining fixtures

May 11: Newcastle (a)
May 16: Man Utd (h)
May 25: Nottingham Forest (a)

Aston Villa's remaining fixtures

May 18: Spurs (h)
May 25: Man United (a)


We’re lucky that we don’t have to play any of the other Top 7 in the last 2 games, and Man City and Forest *probably* have the easiest run in out of the bunch.

The hardest is a 3 way split between Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle.

I’m not sure a draw tomorrow would be the very worst result given those remaining fixtures, but, I think potentially we could see Arsenal being pulled back into the mix a bit more too.

Man City probably have done enough now. But as we saw v Southampton today, who knows.

Maybe this will be a bit clearer come tomorrow evening!! 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 10, 2025, 08:32:02 PM
Forget about catching Arsenal, they will get to 70+ points.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 10, 2025, 08:33:12 PM
I think we're gonna do it...for the first time since about September.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 10, 2025, 08:33:39 PM
Forget about catching Arsenal, they will get to 70+ points.

Starting a week on Sunday hopefully.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 10, 2025, 08:35:46 PM
Predicting results this late in the season is pointless, pressure does weird things. No one would have predicted a Saints point today. If we win our last two we finish top 5 as others will slip up, we have to make sure we don't.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 10, 2025, 08:35:51 PM
I’m looking at the remaining games now, trying to work out who’s doing what and when.

Honestly, I have no idea how this is going to work out or who I want to win out of Chelsea or Newcastle.

Arsenal's remaining fixtures

May 11: Liverpool (a)
May 18: Newcastle (h)
May 25: Southampton (a)

Manchester City's remaining fixtures

May 20: Bournemouth (h)
May 25: Fulham (a)

Nottingham Forest's remaining fixtures

May 11: Leicester (h)
May 18: West Ham (a)
May 25: Chelsea (h)

Newcastle's remaining fixtures

May 11: Chelsea (h)
May 18: Arsenal (a)
May 25: Everton (h)

Chelsea's remaining fixtures

May 11: Newcastle (a)
May 16: Man Utd (h)
May 25: Nottingham Forest (a)

Aston Villa's remaining fixtures

May 18: Spurs (h)
May 25: Man United (a)


We’re lucky that we don’t have to play any of the other Top 7 in the last 2 games, and Man City and Forest *probably* have the easiest run in out of the bunch.

The hardest is a 3 way split between Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle.

I’m not sure a draw tomorrow would be the very worst result given those remaining fixtures, but, I think potentially we could see Arsenal being pulled back into the mix a bit more too.

Man City probably have done enough now. But as we saw v Southampton today, who knows.

Maybe this will be a bit clearer come tomorrow evening!! 

Doesn't matter if Newcastle, Chelsea or Forest draw or lose any of their remaining games. Just that they drop points. Newcastle two games, Chelsea two games, Forest one game. City are different and need to lose one. A draw wouldn't be enough.

With that in mind, Newcastle - Chelsea draw is the one, as would put them both down to one game where any form of dropped points is required
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rudy Can't Fail on May 10, 2025, 09:02:50 PM
I think we're gonna do it...for the first time since about September.

Sadly, I think we'll miss out on goal difference.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on May 10, 2025, 09:10:42 PM
I wonder if they'll make a banner for us. Good Luck Villa from the City of London.

City of Surrey
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 10, 2025, 09:12:40 PM
We could well be 1pt behind Arsenal going into the last game of the season…

I really hope we aren't.


Indeed, we need them beating Newcastle.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 10, 2025, 09:24:52 PM
Ruben Dias sounds pretty rattled.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 10, 2025, 09:28:16 PM
In fairness to him Guardiola disagreed with Dias.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 10, 2025, 09:35:22 PM
Yeah, Guardiola isn't an idiot. Dias is talking bollocks.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: darren woolley on May 10, 2025, 10:00:31 PM
I'll be looking forward to more European games whichever competition we are in.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 10, 2025, 10:30:54 PM
Saints' groundsman rang up 5 Live's 606 phone-in to tell Sutton and Cabbage that the ground had been irrigated all morning and if Días had wanted a wetter pitch, it would have meant him getting soaked between 3-5pm.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Hookeysmith on May 10, 2025, 10:35:07 PM
Let's just smash the living fuck out of Spurs
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 11, 2025, 12:58:18 AM
I’m looking at the remaining games now, trying to work out who’s doing what and when.

Honestly, I have no idea how this is going to work out or who I want to win out of Chelsea or Newcastle.

Arsenal's remaining fixtures

May 11: Liverpool (a)
May 18: Newcastle (h)
May 25: Southampton (a)

Manchester City's remaining fixtures

May 20: Bournemouth (h)
May 25: Fulham (a)

Nottingham Forest's remaining fixtures

May 11: Leicester (h)
May 18: West Ham (a)
May 25: Chelsea (h)

Newcastle's remaining fixtures

May 11: Chelsea (h)
May 18: Arsenal (a)
May 25: Everton (h)

Chelsea's remaining fixtures

May 11: Newcastle (a)
May 16: Man Utd (h)
May 25: Nottingham Forest (a)

Aston Villa's remaining fixtures

May 18: Spurs (h)
May 25: Man United (a)


We’re lucky that we don’t have to play any of the other Top 7 in the last 2 games, and Man City and Forest *probably* have the easiest run in out of the bunch.

The hardest is a 3 way split between Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle.

I’m not sure a draw tomorrow would be the very worst result given those remaining fixtures, but, I think potentially we could see Arsenal being pulled back into the mix a bit more too.

Man City probably have done enough now. But as we saw v Southampton today, who knows.

Maybe this will be a bit clearer come tomorrow evening!!

I have been thinking that a draw between Chelsea and Newcastle might be the best result for us, but actually now slightly leaning to a Chelsea win.  That means we'll be on the same points as Newcastle and will go 3 points ahead of them if we win on Friday night.  Big pressure then on them at Arsenal and would mean that a defeat there and we'd be 3 points ahead of them going into the last game.

Hoping Leicester can pick themselves up and get so.ething out of their game with Forest. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: stevo_st on May 11, 2025, 08:26:48 AM
From the Beeb…. “Statisticians Opta give Arsenal a 99.7% chance of qualifying for the Champions League.
They give a 91.2% chance for City, 69.4% for Newcastle and 67.9% for Chelsea.
For Forest it's 37.8% and for Villa it's 34.2%”

Ours is up from 15.5% - guess it might double again if we beat Spurs.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: stevo_st on May 11, 2025, 08:36:12 AM
A draw between Chelsea and Newcastle has to be the preferred result assuming we need two wins to have a chance.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: saint13 on May 11, 2025, 08:40:35 AM
Sadly I think we will come 6th and miss out on goal difference.

However, yesterday was massive as it was the game where I thought we would slip up.

I think the "best" outcome for us is Manure win the Europa League and they go on the piss for 2 days, meaning the Sunday game v us is a nothing game for them and a potential Champions League celebration for both teams if we win.

We will then just have to wait and hope on the other results.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on May 11, 2025, 08:52:54 AM
Honestly, I have no idea how this is going to work out or who I want to win out of Chelsea or Newcastle.
A draw would be perfect, it’s the same as them both losing at this point.

If they draw, they are both 1pt ahead of us (plus a much better goal difference). From the remaining 2 games, we can all either get 6, 4, 3, 2, 1, or 0 points.

Assume for the moment we win both of our games - we get 6pts (finish on 69pts)

If they win both of their games, they get 6pts and finish on 70pts. We finish behind them

If they don’t, they get a maximum of 4pts and so finish on 68pts. We finish ahead of them.

The only reason to want one of them to lose is if we thought we could catch up the goal difference (as that’d mean both teams could still finish on 69pts). But as finishing above them in that instance would involve us winning both of our games by cricket scores …
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 11, 2025, 08:54:00 AM
I think the "best" outcome for us is Manure win the Europa League and they go on the piss for 2 days, meaning the Sunday game v us is a nothing game for them and a potential Champions League celebration for both teams if we win.

As DW suggests upthread, if they do win the final, spend two days on the piss and then know that losing to us could stop one of Arsenal, Man City or Chelsea qualifying next season you can imagine them not being too upset to lose to us.

Just another reason to reluctantly prefer a Man Utd win over a Spurs win in the final.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Nii Lamptey on May 11, 2025, 09:31:59 AM
In answer to the forum topic..... Why yes. Yes we will.
(https://i.ibb.co/N24Gj0QL/Whats-App-Image-2025-05-10-at-17-42-26-199b25fd.jpg) (https://ibb.co/N24Gj0QL)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Nii Lamptey on May 11, 2025, 09:35:15 AM
Honestly, I have no idea how this is going to work out or who I want to win out of Chelsea or Newcastle.
A draw would be perfect, it’s the same as them both losing at this point.

If they draw, they are both 1pt ahead of us (plus a much better goal difference). From the remaining 2 games, we can all either get 6, 4, 3, 2, 1, or 0 points.

Assume for the moment we win both of our games - we get 6pts (finish on 69pts)

If they win both of their games, they get 6pts and finish on 70pts. We finish behind them

If they don’t, they get a maximum of 4pts and so finish on 68pts. We finish ahead of them.

The only reason to want one of them to lose is if we thought we could catch up the goal difference (as that’d mean both teams could still finish on 69pts). But as finishing above them in that instance would involve us winning both of our games by cricket scores …

Perfectly put Algy. We need points slip ups from the other teams, goal difference is a write off. It's basically shit or bust for us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Crown Hill on May 11, 2025, 09:43:58 AM
I wonder if they'll make a banner for us. Good Luck Villa from the City of London.

That made this batch muncher smile!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 11, 2025, 09:57:21 AM
I'd take a Newcastle - Chelsea draw and a Forest win right now. Get four teams within one result with two to play...and two of them play each other last game of the season, meaning we'd catch at least one of them, both if they also draw.

Provided we win both games etc etc. Barely need to bother with that caveat at this stage.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: nigel on May 11, 2025, 10:07:15 AM
Are we guaranteed a Europa League place, now?

That’s the impression I got from MotD yesterday.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 11, 2025, 10:08:41 AM
Are we guaranteed a Europa League place, now?

That’s the impression I got from MotD yesterday.

Guaranteed European football. If we finish seventh and Palace win the cup then it's Conference.

We now can't finish lower than seventh.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Paul.S on May 11, 2025, 10:10:38 AM
European football guaranteed for the third season running. Win the next 2 and I think CL football will be coming back. Massively important for so many reasons.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: nigel on May 11, 2025, 10:14:53 AM
Are we guaranteed a Europa League place, now?

That’s the impression I got from MotD yesterday.

Guaranteed European football. If we finish seventh and Palace win the cup then it's Conference.

We now can't finish lower than seventh.

Cheers Dave
I think it was the Newcastle Carling Cup win that’s thrown me.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 11, 2025, 10:21:32 AM
Cheers Dave
I think it was the Newcastle Carling Cup win that’s thrown me.

Understandable, I don't think anyone of us under 70 are used to Newcastle winning a trophy.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: john e on May 11, 2025, 10:27:52 AM
The big problem with all these scenarios is it’s looking like we will have to go to Old Trafford in the last match of the season and win or at least get a result
Our record up there is abysmal, they could put their women’s team out and we still lose
They’ve been piss poor all season and we couldn’t even beat them at Villa Park, we still have a collective bottle job mentality when it comes to them

Then again I didn’t think we’d win at Bournemouth because of our poor record and we managed to overturn that bogey
So we live in Hope and fear
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on May 11, 2025, 10:51:42 AM
A draw between Chelsea and Newcastle has to be the preferred result assuming we need two wins to have a chance.

If they draw, and Newcastle don’t beat Arsenal, and we win our last two, we qualify.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 11, 2025, 10:54:45 AM
A draw between Chelsea and Newcastle has to be the preferred result assuming we need two wins to have a chance.

If they draw, and Newcastle don’t beat Arsenal, and we win our last two, we qualify.

Although Newcastle have already beaten Arsenal three times this season without conceding a goal. They're Arsenal's version of Palace for us.

I think more fun is Arsenal losing their next two and knowing they HAVE to beat a demob happy Southampton on the last day to avoid finishing seventh.

Which they then fail to do.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on May 11, 2025, 10:59:33 AM
Well we play ManUre 4 days after their European final. If we can't beat them with their players on the beach and with nothing to play for we might as well forfeit every game against them forever.

I think it would be lovely though to complete our Champions League comeback from nowhere and fucking destroy them at the Theatre of Cockneys.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 11, 2025, 11:06:04 AM
Well we play ManUre 4 days after their European final. If we can't beat them with their players on the beach and with nothing to play for we might as well forfeit every game against them forever.

I think it would be lovely though to complete our Champions League comeback from nowhere and fucking destroy them at the Theatre of Cockneys.

I'd imagine that if they've won the Europa League, and Citeh are still in the mix for a CL spot, the home fans wouldn't be that distraught with a Villa win.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: JUAN PABLO on May 11, 2025, 12:15:57 PM
I would prefer magpies win . not a draw .  I did predictions and we finish higher than chelsea 2 pts if magpies win but we all know there be weird results still.  I think the forest and chelsea would be excellent for a draw . 

If Villa win last 2 they will qualify , Ive even put chelsea to win today in the predictions.

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/


Arsenal could finish 4th
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: darren woolley on May 11, 2025, 01:15:24 PM
European football guaranteed for the third season running. Win the next 2 and I think CL football will be coming back. Massively important for so many reasons.

Totally agree.


Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on May 11, 2025, 01:17:12 PM
Well Jackson's season is over and they weren't exactly free scoring before.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 11, 2025, 01:55:39 PM
That result makes it more difficult.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on May 11, 2025, 01:56:56 PM
Hate those jammy wankers
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 11, 2025, 01:57:29 PM
Man City - 1 loss
Newcastle - 2 games
Chelsea - 1 game
Forest - 1 game
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Keeno on May 11, 2025, 02:02:11 PM
Without Jackson you could definitely see Chelsea dropping points v United. Then they couldn’t catch us either way assuming we win all of them
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 11, 2025, 02:05:20 PM
We don't want Forest to tank too much (today against Lesta, next week at Wham) do we?

Otherwise, they could just roll over for Chelsea on the final day, as they won't be caught for 7th and can't make top five.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: john e on May 11, 2025, 02:09:05 PM
We don't want Forest to tank too much (today against Lesta, next week at Wham) do we?

Otherwise, they could just roll over for Chelsea on the final day, as they won't be caught for 7th and can't make top five.

Never thought about that, the permutations are many varied and unreal
We’ll be needing Alan Turing to make a comeback and work it all out
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 11, 2025, 02:09:56 PM
We don't want Forest to tank too much (today against Lesta, next week at Wham) do we?

Otherwise, they could just roll over for Chelsea on the final day, as they won't be caught for 7th and can't make top five.

Yeah, Forest drawing today and/or against West Ham would be fine.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dr.chekov on May 11, 2025, 02:11:35 PM
Sky has us as 30.1% chance of making top 5.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 11, 2025, 02:12:27 PM
I'd rather Forest just took themselves out the running meaning we get Forest win and draw on the last day, rather than potentially just the draw.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 11, 2025, 02:12:54 PM
If Forest tank they could go into the last match needing a result to finish 7th.

We've gained on 2 sides this weekend, and with slumping Forest still to play.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on May 11, 2025, 02:15:02 PM
Sky has us as 30.1% chance of making top 5.

That feels about right.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on May 11, 2025, 02:32:56 PM
Leicester winning!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 11, 2025, 02:37:00 PM
We've gained on 2 sides this weekend, and with slumping Forest still to play.

Can I interest you in a counter-opinion that because Chelsea lost the world is now caving in and we might as well just all give up and go home, as per the Other Games thread?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 11, 2025, 03:01:26 PM
Citeh are definitely back in it now. Potentially both of their games are tricky.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TaxDodger on May 11, 2025, 03:37:34 PM
Need either Chelsea or Forest to drop points next weekend or we’re fucked.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL? - reset for the last lap
Post by: eamonn on May 11, 2025, 03:39:01 PM
Need either Chelsea or Forest to drop points next weekend or we’re fucked.

Can't see Forest winning at Wham.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rudy Can't Fail on May 11, 2025, 03:44:03 PM
Need either Chelsea or Forest to drop points next weekend or we’re fucked.

Can't see Forest winning at Wham.

It's the final home game for the chimpanzee suckers and will want to go out with a bang. Tough game for Notts Forest.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Richard on May 11, 2025, 04:15:01 PM
Yes. Gained 2 points on Citeh and Forest this weekend, 3 on Chelsea. Forest in particular are blowing up.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TaxDodger on May 11, 2025, 04:16:36 PM
Win our last two and Chelsea don’t do the same and we’re there.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 11, 2025, 04:16:40 PM
Can Yanited and Spurs really be this shit for their last two league games? I can't see them losing all of them.

They're crap but there are limits, y'know?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tokyo Sexwhale on May 11, 2025, 04:18:54 PM
Assuming we win both of our games we need TWO of the following to happen.

Man City lose ONE or draw both of their games - Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A) - possible, but not likely
Newcastle not to win either of their games - Arsenal (A), Everton (H).  They'll beat Everton, anything against Arsenal is a bonus.
Chelsea to not win ONE of their games - Man U (H), Forest (A)

I think Man City and Newcastle will do what they need to do; so it's up to Forest or Man U (lol) to stop Chelsea winning.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on May 11, 2025, 04:19:45 PM
I refer the gentleman to my earlier reply.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: stevo_st on May 11, 2025, 04:24:27 PM
Edited - misread
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Astnor on May 11, 2025, 04:27:43 PM
What did happen to the Manchester City loosing-points-due-to-not-following-the-rules thing
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Astnor on May 11, 2025, 04:29:57 PM
Also Forest to take points against Chelsea last day at home might happen.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: RamboandBruno on May 11, 2025, 04:30:41 PM
Can Yanited and Spurs really be this shit for their last two league games? I can't see them losing all of them.

They're crap but there are limits, y'know?
Any normal season when the bottom three weren’t so incredibly shit, would see both spurs and man utd bang in the middle of a relegation battle.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chip Butty 111 on May 11, 2025, 04:35:42 PM
After that shambles with the owner at full time, I wouldn't be surprised if Forest don't win again this season
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Martyn Smith on May 11, 2025, 04:47:31 PM
Today's results have made our situation simple. If over the last two games we do better than Chelsea, and at least as well as Forest, we will be in the Champions' League. If we don't, we won't
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Martyn Smith on May 11, 2025, 04:51:55 PM
Does anybody else find it rather bizarre that, whilst we might not be playing Champions' League football next season, one of our final two opponents in this league campaign, the two worst teams in the division outside of the bottom three, will be?...

I mean, I agree with the Europa winners qualifying for the CL next season. It's just that this particular set of circumstances is most strange...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Matt C on May 11, 2025, 04:52:05 PM
All in all, pretty pretty pretty good set of weekend results
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tokyo Sexwhale on May 11, 2025, 04:53:27 PM
Assuming we win both of our games we need ONE of the following to happen.

Man City lose ONE or draw both of their games - Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A) - possible, but not likely
Newcastle not to win either of their games - Arsenal (A), Everton (H).  They'll beat Everton, anything against Arsenal is a bonus.
Chelsea to not win ONE of their games - Man U (H), Forest (A)

I think Man City and Newcastle will do what they need to do; so it's up to Forest or Man U (lol) to stop Chelsea winning.

We can also add Arsenal losing against their last 2 games as another out at this rate.  Unfortunately their last games are against Newcastle (where we want them to win) and Southampton (where they won't lose).

EDIT:  Only needs one of those scenarios to happen (I'd originally included us winning both games as an option).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Andy_Lochhead_in_the_air on May 11, 2025, 04:58:58 PM
It is still mathematically possible for us to finish 2nd. Would this put us in Pot 1 ?  :)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 11, 2025, 05:00:57 PM
I said before ManC that 4 wins would see us in the CL. We're halfway there and are living on a prayer.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 11, 2025, 05:10:33 PM
Yeah we just need to win our games and see.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: brontebilly on May 11, 2025, 05:18:29 PM
Great weekend for us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 11, 2025, 05:23:28 PM
Did you ever see Doug on the pitch after a game at VP?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tokyo Sexwhale on May 11, 2025, 06:08:50 PM
It would be nice if Man City could get their points deduction to count for this season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on May 11, 2025, 06:16:09 PM
Did you ever see Doug on the pitch after a game at VP?

I saw him play there.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 11, 2025, 06:17:26 PM
Did you ever see Doug on the pitch after a game at VP?

I saw him play there.

Didn't he also tell the managers what to do in some games ("Don't play that player, we have to pay out more money if he makes so many appearances").
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on May 11, 2025, 06:19:12 PM
Did you ever see Doug on the pitch after a game at VP?

I saw him play there.

Overhead kick?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: yammers on May 11, 2025, 06:22:08 PM
After that shambles with the owner at full time, I wouldn't be surprised if Forest don't win again this season

What did he do?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 11, 2025, 06:25:54 PM
After that shambles with the owner at full time, I wouldn't be surprised if Forest don't win again this season

What did he do?

Came on the pitch at full time and seemed to have a go (verbally) at Nuno
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: yammers on May 11, 2025, 06:27:32 PM
Oh dear
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 11, 2025, 06:28:18 PM
After that shambles with the owner at full time, I wouldn't be surprised if Forest don't win again this season

What did he do?

https://x.com/McLarenSte/status/1921585941338063203
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 11, 2025, 06:31:14 PM
That result at least keeps Arsenal needing to focus in their next game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 11, 2025, 06:33:31 PM
Updated official figures. I'm no longer bothering with eighth and below:

2. Arsenal 72
3. Man City 71
4. Newcastle 70
5. Chelsea 69
6. Villa 66
7. Forest 63
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on May 11, 2025, 06:33:49 PM
I think it would be good for us for Forest to win at West Ham, so they still have something real to play for in the last game v Chelsea.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on May 11, 2025, 06:36:17 PM
Considering where we were a couple of months ago, it's amazing we are pushing like this. Amazing.  2 wins and I think we're in again.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 11, 2025, 06:36:45 PM
It would but I can't see them winning there. They're out of form and Wham will have got a bit of confidence from winning today and it's their last home game so will be up for it. Forest's best chance, as ever, is by winning with counter-attacks.pp
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: adrenachrome on May 11, 2025, 06:38:13 PM
After that shambles with the owner at full time, I wouldn't be surprised if Forest don't win again this season

What did he do?

https://x.com/McLarenSte/status/1921585941338063203

Demis Roussos is out of his pram.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 11, 2025, 06:40:04 PM
It would but I can't see them winning there. They're out of form and Wham will have got a bit of confidence from winning today and it's their last home game so will be up for it. Forest's best chance, as ever, is by winning with counter-attacks.pp

West Ham have been utter drek for months. They only managed a win against the corpse of Man Utd because every fucker wins there now (until we rock up). Foresr are looking very wobbly but let's not big up the Hammers too much.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 11, 2025, 06:42:03 PM
We were twelve points behind Forest on 1st April, now a point ahead. Bad news is we probably need them to avoid defeat against Chelsea to have a chance of Champions League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 11, 2025, 06:44:48 PM
Has anyone said it's good night to Forest's CL hopes yet, given the identity of Leicester's second goalscorer?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 11, 2025, 06:46:54 PM
With Chelsea Newcastle it's one of them where I was quite sanguine about the fact that any result would do us a favour in some way but now it's happened I'm stressed out that's the worst outcome. Such is life.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 11, 2025, 06:47:04 PM
I think you're the first. 🙂
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: JUAN PABLO on May 11, 2025, 06:48:12 PM
After that shambles with the owner at full time, I wouldn't be surprised if Forest don't win again this season

What did he do?

https://x.com/McLarenSte/status/1921585941338063203


weird thing is , he kind of looks like he is having a go at him for hugging one of their players who he probably played for at spurzzz , because he should be thanking him for being in europe.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on May 11, 2025, 06:58:42 PM
Good results I think today.

win our last 2 games and the lowest we can finish is 6. 

Arsenal drawing is good I think (though a hammering would have been better so they needed to respond).  But if they lose against Newcastle then they go third in a 2 two horse race which would put the pressure on lego man + it would mean they need at least a point on the last day.

Draw between the two would mean that Newcastle have to beat Everton and Arsenal get a point against Southampton. 

Need chelsea to drop points in there last 2.   I think if we win the last 2 we'll be unlucky not to qualify.   

That last minute conceeding against Man City was a real shame as otherwise we would be favourites to qualify now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on May 11, 2025, 07:17:50 PM
It feels like today took us closer to securing 6th but a slight bit further from 5th.

We really could do with Chelsea dropping points in game week 37 - just to ease the pressure on us
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 11, 2025, 07:37:08 PM
I think Newcastle are gone after today's game. Expect Everton to go all out to beat Southampton last game at Goodison and then spend the week on the piss afterwards. Newcastle will beat them by at least three.

Man City losing to Bournemouth or Fulham or drawing both looks more likely, but they've a decade of mostly winning big games and I can't remember them ever not winning on the last day when it actually matters. Well, not this century anyway.

Chelsea seem the best best. They'll obviously beat Man U's reserves, so it would come down to whether Forest can get something. All the momentum seems with Chelsea at the moment but you never know, I suppose. Forest away shouldn't be easy.

Still, it's largely irrelevant anyway as we never win in Manchester.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aldridgeboy on May 11, 2025, 07:45:52 PM
Well at least it’s a little clearer now. Win our last two and hope Chelsea drop points in one of their two.

The last day at old Trafford worries me though. I can’t lie.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on May 11, 2025, 07:50:42 PM
Did you ever see Doug on the pitch after a game at VP?

I saw him play there.

Didn't he also tell the managers what to do in some games ("Don't play that player, we have to pay out more money if he makes so many appearances").

At the opening of the Etihad he asked Martin O'Neill why he'd brought Mellberg on in the closing minutes because then he'd get an appearance bonus.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: adrenachrome on May 11, 2025, 07:59:29 PM
Did you ever see Doug on the pitch after a game at VP?

I saw him play there.

Didn't he also tell the managers what to do in some games ("Don't play that player, we have to pay out more money if he makes so many appearances").

At the opening of the Etihad he asked Martin O'Neill why he'd brought Mellberg on in the closing minutes because then he'd get an appearance bonus.

Look after the pennies, and the pounds will look after themselves.

Those were the days, my friends.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Andy_Lochhead_in_the_air on May 11, 2025, 08:04:20 PM
Did you ever see Doug on the pitch after a game at VP?

I saw him play there.

Didn't he also tell the managers what to do in some games ("Don't play that player, we have to pay out mor

If Doug wanted to have a go at the manager it was done in the back garden of his "little cottage" in Ladywood Road.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: adrenachrome on May 11, 2025, 08:07:30 PM
Did you ever see Doug on the pitch after a game at VP?

I saw him play there.

Didn't he also tell the managers what to do in some games ("Don't play that player, we have to pay out more money if he makes so many appearances").

At the opening of the Etihad he asked Martin O'Neill why he'd brought Mellberg on in the closing minutes because then he'd get an appearance bonus.

Look after the pennies, and the pounds will look after themselves.

Those were the days, my friends.
[/quote
Did you ever see Doug on the pitch after a game at VP?

I saw him play there.

Didn't he also tell the managers what to do in some games ("Don't play that player, we have to pay out more money if he makes so many appearances").

At the opening of the Etihad he asked Martin O'Neill why he'd brought Mellberg on in the closing minutes because then he'd get an appearance bonus.

Look after the pennies, and the pounds will look after themselves.

Those were the days, my friends.

If Doug wanted to have a go at the manager it was done in the back garden of his "little cottage" in Ladywood Road.

The infamous rose garden.
 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 11, 2025, 08:26:15 PM
Potter is a villa fan , he's finally getting a tune out of that rabble . Think they will beat forest .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on May 11, 2025, 08:29:23 PM
I'm not that worried about Forest. If anything, I think I want them to win so they can be up for beating Chelsea. It's a greater risk of finishing 7th, but a better chance of finishing 5th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 11, 2025, 08:31:48 PM
We can't qualify for the Champions League, but will clinch (at least) Europa League football on Saturday if Man City win the FA Cup.

If Palace win the cup, we could clinch it if Forest lose to West Ham on Sunday after Villa defeat Tottenham on Friday, or if Forest draw, following on from a Villa win and Chelsea failing to beat Man U in the other Friday evening game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 11, 2025, 08:36:25 PM
I'd expect a few more shock scores next weekend (hopefully not ours) and further plot twists . Enjoy the ride .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 11, 2025, 08:37:55 PM
Europa League looks most likely now, which I'm at peace with. We'll possibly lose a star or two this summer and not be able to entice the targets we have if we were in the CL BUT we should be targeting the Europa League trophy as a cabinet-addition this time next year.

It's still got some prestige, gives a route into the CL the following season but also can't be that difficult given the shower of shit in the final this year.

We're unlikely to win the CL in the near-future so for a year of non-Galacticos arriving, I'd accept it for a cup.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ozzjim on May 11, 2025, 08:40:48 PM
Yeah weirdly prefer Europa next season for the chance of winning a trophy, which let's face it, is what we should want. We're not going to win the CL realistically, although ideally we would be back there the year after.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 11, 2025, 08:46:12 PM
I’d definitely not prefer Europa. We came pretty close to taking out the best team in the Champions League, we should be playing at that level. Long-term sustainable success will also be helped by getting there again. I wouldn’t mind Europa, but it would be a disappointment.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 11, 2025, 08:46:40 PM
 I just wish the Europa League was spread across Tuesdays and Wensdays (the old UEFA Cup was on the same midweek evenings as CL, wasn't it?), as the Thursday to Sunday turn-around just seems to be crap for most teams that have to do it (i.e they all lost today).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 11, 2025, 08:46:59 PM
I think two wins gets us in there.  We naturally look at it from our perspective, but I think if we were Forest fans, there would be a lot saying us winning at Bournemouth and them drawing today meant it was was done.  Also think it would be a very nervous place if this were a Chelsea message board.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: villa for life on May 11, 2025, 08:49:22 PM
Potter is a villa fan , he's finally getting a tune out of that rabble . Think they will beat forest .

We don’t want that, do we? If they lose to west ham and both villa and Chelsea win, then they won’t have anything to play for on the last day v Chelsea.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villa in Denmark on May 11, 2025, 08:51:40 PM
Potter is a villa fan , he's finally getting a tune out of that rabble . Think they will beat forest .

What's that got to do with the price of fish?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Charlie8182 on May 11, 2025, 08:54:07 PM
Yeah weirdly prefer Europa next season for the chance of winning a trophy, which let's face it, is what we should want. We're not going to win the CL realistically, although ideally we would be back there the year after.

I thought I was alone in thinking that, apart from being much more able to afford going to the games it’s a trophy we could also realistically win.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 11, 2025, 08:57:11 PM
Potter is a villa fan , he's finally getting a tune out of that rabble . Think they will beat forest .

We don’t want that, do we? If they lose to west ham and both villa and Chelsea win, then they won’t have anything to play for on the last day v Chelsea.
They'd still be pushing for Europa league above the conference booby prize
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 11, 2025, 09:00:15 PM
If we still haven't won the Champions League after 5 seasons in it, I might consider the Europa League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 11, 2025, 09:01:08 PM
Potter is a villa fan , he's finally getting a tune out of that rabble . Think they will beat forest .

We don’t want that, do we? If they lose to west ham and both villa and Chelsea win, then they won’t have anything to play for on the last day v Chelsea.
They'd still be pushing for Europa league above the conference booby prize

Not if Man City win the cup.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Martyn Smith on May 11, 2025, 09:03:42 PM
Did you ever see Doug on the pitch after a game at VP?

I saw him play there.

Didn't he also tell the managers what to do in some games ("Don't play that player, we have to pay out more money if he makes so many appearances").

At the opening of the Etihad he asked Martin O'Neill why he'd brought Mellberg on in the closing minutes because then he'd get an appearance bonus.

I thought Randy was running the show by then. Not that being Hon Pres or whatever title they gave him would have prevented DE from weighing in
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 11, 2025, 09:03:43 PM
Potter is a villa fan , he's finally getting a tune out of that rabble . Think they will beat forest .

We don’t want that, do we? If they lose to west ham and both villa and Chelsea win, then they won’t have anything to play for on the last day v Chelsea.
They'd still be pushing for Europa league above the conference booby prize

Not if Man City win the cup.
Oh, it's far too complicated for me .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 11, 2025, 09:21:55 PM
Potter is a villa fan , he's finally getting a tune out of that rabble . Think they will beat forest .

Last 6 is DLDLDW with the win coming in a 6 pointer against another bottom of the table side. Nah I don't think he has got any tune out of that rabble at all.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 11, 2025, 09:25:04 PM
Potter is a villa fan , he's finally getting a tune out of that rabble . Think they will beat forest .

We don’t want that, do we? If they lose to west ham and both villa and Chelsea win, then they won’t have anything to play for on the last day v Chelsea.
They'd still be pushing for Europa league above the conference booby prize

If us and Chelsea win, they can't finish 6th so are stuck there whatever the result. Although the groundmen will be asking Nuno for Forest to win as they don't want the owner out walking on the pitch again.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 11, 2025, 09:28:49 PM
Did you ever see Doug on the pitch after a game at VP?

I saw him play there.



Didn't he also tell the managers what to do in some games ("Don't play that player, we have to pay out more money if he makes so many appearances").

At the opening of the Etihad he asked Martin O'Neill why he'd brought Mellberg on in the closing minutes because then he'd get an appearance bonus.

I thought Randy was running the show by then. Not that being Hon Pres or whatever title they gave him would have prevented DE from weighing in

Randy was 2006, Etihad opened 2003. Dave might have got his O' managers mixed up as it was Dolly then.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on May 11, 2025, 09:38:22 PM
Sorry, the Emirates. Ellis was still in charge but Randy's bid was in the process of being accepted.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 11, 2025, 09:40:01 PM
Still wrong, then. Mellberg started the game (and scored the first ever goal at the stadium).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 11, 2025, 09:42:14 PM
I'm still not happy for the marking for their late equaliser.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 11, 2025, 09:42:48 PM
Probably Pau's fault.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 11, 2025, 09:42:58 PM
Yeah weirdly prefer Europa next season for the chance of winning a trophy, which let's face it, is what we should want. We're not going to win the CL realistically, although ideally we would be back there the year after.

I agree with the sentiment, but sadly I think the financial disparity between being in the different competitions means qualifying for the Champions League has become huge. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Max Villan on May 11, 2025, 09:45:15 PM
Sorry, the Emirates. Ellis was still in charge but Randy's bid was in the process of being accepted.

It was Laursen that Ellis moaned about (as people have picked you up on it!)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Baldy on May 11, 2025, 09:52:58 PM
Under Alex Ferguson, Man Utd were always encouraged to score as many goals as they could as he always considered goal difference the only bonus point up for grabs.

Hopefully we will qualify in top five but if we miss out on goal difference I will be really pissed off. There were times this season we took the lead but instead of going for the jugular we sat back, dilly dallied and conserved our energy.

I hope it's a lesson we don't learn the hard way.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 11, 2025, 09:54:52 PM
But what if that conserving energy meant we got more points later in the season?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 11, 2025, 09:58:19 PM
Last season we burnt out 3/4 of the way through the season. This season it appears we haven't. If we miss out we miss out. One of those things but I don't want us to miss out because we don't do enough in the next couple of games.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 11, 2025, 09:59:25 PM
It's a strange one . Compared to last season , We've scored less , conceded more and are going to end up with more points , yet finish lower .
We are a class squad now , just misfiring slightly. Get summer right we can win things next season .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Keeno on May 11, 2025, 10:05:55 PM
As per John Townley, we are CL if we win our last two games and one of the below happens...

▪️Chelsea don't beat both Man Utd and Forest
▪️Newcastle don't beat Arsenal and Everton
▪️Man City lose to either B'mouth or Fulham
▪️Arsenal take only one point from final three

One of those will happen, right?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on May 11, 2025, 10:06:41 PM
Getting into europe 3 seasons in a row is brilliant - particuarly with FFP stacking against clubs disrupting us the established order.

Anything more the Conference League would be amazing.  At the beginning of the season I thought it would be a huge achievement to get top 6 given all the ins and out and UCL and I think thats proven true.  The fact we could get that whilst still think "what could have been" shows how well we have done. 

Ultimately as long as we have Unai - I am fairly relaxed - he'll have us there or there abouts going forward.  The standard of the league this year has been poor - and it does feel like there is a bit of a changing of the guard.  Man City, Man Utd, Spurs all feel like they need a rebuild, and tbf liverpool dont seem that far off.   Chelsea is always a few results from a crisis.  - and id back us to strengthen at least as well as any of them in the summer.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 11, 2025, 10:07:16 PM
As per John Townley, we are CL if we win our last two games and one of the below happens...

▪️Chelsea don't beat both Man Utd and Forest
▪️Newcastle don't beat Arsenal and Everton
▪️Man City lose to either B'mouth or Fulham
▪️Arsenal take only one point from final three

One of those will happen, right?

Hopefully, but if it doesn't so be it. We tried our best in the end and as long as we do all we can in the next two matches, I won't be disappointed.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on May 11, 2025, 10:10:52 PM
As per John Townley, we are CL if we win our last two games and one of the below happens...

▪️Chelsea don't beat both Man Utd and Forest
▪️Newcastle don't beat Arsenal and Everton
▪️Man City lose to either B'mouth or Fulham
▪️Arsenal take only one point from final three

One of those will happen, right?
Its crazy as we're playing 16th and 17th both just before there biggest game of the season yet feels like there tricky games.  We could contrive to lose at Old Trafford even if we were 6 nil up with 2 mins left. 

I think if we win our 2 games - we would be very unlucky not to make it - but also fair enough - others will have held there nerve and fair play to them if thats how it plays out.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 11, 2025, 10:13:21 PM
As per John Townley, we are CL if we win our last two games and one of the below happens...

▪️Chelsea don't beat both Man Utd and Forest
▪️Newcastle don't beat Arsenal and Everton
▪️Man City lose to either B'mouth or Fulham
▪️Arsenal take only one point from final three

One of those will happen, right?

If that was the case I'd fancy it a bit more. Sadly, Newcastle only have to beat Arsenal or Everton, not both.

Also, I'm assuming the list is slightly out of date. Arsenal only need one point to finish above us, having drawn at Liverpool earlier.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: malckennedy on May 11, 2025, 10:14:42 PM
As per John Townley, we are CL if we win our last two games and one of the below happens...

▪️Chelsea don't beat both Man Utd and Forest
▪️Newcastle don't beat Arsenal and Everton
▪️Man City lose to either B'mouth or Fulham
▪️Arsenal take only one point from final three

One of those will happen, right?

Think Newcastle only have to beat Arsenal OR Everton to finish higher than us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on May 11, 2025, 10:15:37 PM
If (when) we batter spurs, we have given ourselves a brilliant opportunity to make it happen.

That’s all we can do, beat those fuckers next week and take it to the last game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on May 11, 2025, 10:35:04 PM
Still wrong, then. Mellberg started the game (and scored the first ever goal at the stadium).

Nobody likes a smart bottom.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on May 11, 2025, 10:45:30 PM
As per John Townley, we are CL if we win our last two games and one of the below happens...

▪️Chelsea don't beat both Man Utd and Forest
▪️Newcastle don't beat Arsenal and Everton
▪️Man City lose to either B'mouth or Fulham
▪️Arsenal take only one point from final three

One of those will happen, right?

I think one it is eminently possible for the all the top 3 to happen.

Let's beat Spurs and then look at permutations because they will exist going into last Sunday
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 11, 2025, 10:58:03 PM
But what if that conserving energy meant we got more points later in the season?

From memory, we had about 3 or 4 quite heavy defeats in the first half of the season which probably did our goal difference some damage. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on May 12, 2025, 05:23:27 AM
With us being the opening game of the next set of fixtures, beating Tottenham would heap extra pressure on the other sides.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 12, 2025, 09:11:52 AM
As per John Townley, we are CL if we win our last two games and one of the below happens...

▪️Chelsea don't beat both Man Utd and Forest
▪️Newcastle don't beat Arsenal and Everton
▪️Man City lose to either B'mouth or Fulham
▪️Arsenal take only one point from final three

One of those will happen, right?

If that was the case I'd fancy it a bit more. Sadly, Newcastle only have to beat Arsenal or Everton, not both.

Also, I'm assuming the list is slightly out of date. Arsenal only need one point to finish above us, having drawn at Liverpool earlier.

Might have been done before the Arse game, but Townley is correct with his wording that if Newcastle don't beat Arse AND Everton then we can finish above them. He actually got the Chelsea one wrong as that could be an OR.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Perthvillan on May 12, 2025, 09:13:44 AM
Thanks Leicester for yesterday.
I think it's between us and Chelsea for 5th now.
We have Forest covered.
We just need to win both our games (definitely possible on the evidence of yesterday) and hope Chelsea slip up at home to Man U or at Forest (certainly a possibility).
UTV
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on May 12, 2025, 09:15:05 AM
With us being the opening game of the next set of fixtures, beating Tottenham would heap extra pressure on the other sides.

Chelsea vs Man Utd is on a the same time isn't it?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 12, 2025, 09:16:02 AM
With us being the opening game of the next set of fixtures, beating Tottenham would heap extra pressure on the other sides.

Chelsea vs Man Utd is on a the same time isn't it?

We start 30 mins beforehand.....
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 12, 2025, 09:16:25 AM
We kick off 45 minutes earlier.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 12, 2025, 09:17:42 AM
As per John Townley, we are CL if we win our last two games and one of the below happens...

▪️Chelsea don't beat both Man Utd and Forest
▪️Newcastle don't beat Arsenal and Everton
▪️Man City lose to either B'mouth or Fulham
▪️Arsenal take only one point from final three

One of those will happen, right?

If that was the case I'd fancy it a bit more. Sadly, Newcastle only have to beat Arsenal or Everton, not both.

Also, I'm assuming the list is slightly out of date. Arsenal only need one point to finish above us, having drawn at Liverpool earlier.

Might have been done before the Arse game, but Townley is correct with his wording that if Newcastle don't beat Arse AND Everton then we can finish above them.

Only if we overturn a goal difference advantage of sixteen. If they win either, they'll be above us. We can forget about Newcastle.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 12, 2025, 09:21:27 AM
But isn't that why he is using the AND between the teams and not OR. Newcastle have to drop points against both.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on May 12, 2025, 09:25:35 AM
I'm kind of torn.  I want West Ham to beat Forest to give us a bit of a cushion in trying to guarantee a 6th place finish, but I suspect their final day performance against Chelsea will be MUCH stronger if they're still in with a mathematical chance of finishing ahead of Chelsea or us.  So they probably need to get something against West Ham, which would in turn lessen our chances of 6th place.

If you'd offered me the last two games against the 16th and 17th placed teams, who both have a cup final to worry about, I'd have snapped your hand off. It's just a shame it's those two teams that we don't have particularly good records against in recent times.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 12, 2025, 09:28:55 AM
But isn't that why he is using the AND between the teams and not OR. Newcastle have to drop points against both.

He probably could have used the word "neither" in there to avoid confusion. Anyway, we aren't catching Newcastle.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 12, 2025, 09:32:05 AM
But isn't that why he is using the AND between the teams and not OR. Newcastle have to drop points against both.

He probably could have used the word "neither" in there to avoid confusion. Anyway, we aren't catching Newcastle.

Wouldn't that be a weird double negative.
Quote
Newcastle don't beat neither Arsenal and Everton
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 12, 2025, 09:34:30 AM
So goal difference is worth a point then  :(
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 12, 2025, 09:35:15 AM
But isn't that why he is using the AND between the teams and not OR. Newcastle have to drop points against both.

He probably could have used the word "neither" in there to avoid confusion. Anyway, we aren't catching Newcastle.

Wouldn't that be a weird double negative.
Quote
Newcastle don't beat neither Arsenal and Everton

"Newcastle beat neither Arsenal nor Everton".
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 12, 2025, 09:43:52 AM
So exactly the same as "Newcastle don't beat Arsenal and Everton" but with a different negative. Ok.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 12, 2025, 09:49:31 AM
I miss BE.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on May 12, 2025, 10:03:32 AM
Think Newcastle have won all 3 meetings with Arse this season and Declan Rice is out too. Don't think Arse have scored against Newcastle either.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 12, 2025, 10:26:26 AM
I thought Newcastle were rubbish yesterday- particularly second half - and pretty lucky.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Reuben on May 12, 2025, 10:31:25 AM
I hope we approach the game against Man Utd as a match against a side that’s won just 4 of their last 20 league matches (with 3 of those wins coming against the bottom 3) rather than treating it as a game against ‘Manchester United’ which somehow demands some default reverence.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 12, 2025, 10:33:10 AM
So exactly the same as "Newcastle don't beat Arsenal and Everton" but with a different negative. Ok.

Written more clearly so as to avoid the confusion evident in the last two pages. OK.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: IFWaters on May 12, 2025, 10:51:08 AM
Beat scummy spurs and if City win the FA Cup then we are guaranteed Europa League. Before this season I would have bitten your hand off for that but after this season it would seem like a disappointment.

How far we have come if that's the case. I wouldn't mind it if I knew we could keep all our best players for next season because if we can then we can be right in the mix not just for CL places but to actually win the league.

I don't think Liverpool are that much better and they are getting on now whereas our best players are coming into their prime and we are already on a level with those around us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on May 12, 2025, 10:58:53 AM
I don't want Sunday after Sunday of football. I've got an U11 team to manage and 2pm KOs would make it too difficult to make.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 12, 2025, 11:07:25 AM
So exactly the same as "Newcastle don't beat Arsenal and Everton" but with a different negative. Ok.

Written more clearly so as to avoid the confusion evident in the last two pages. OK.

Only confusion seems to have been from you not noticing the word AND and substituting OR.  It might be because the first scenario should have been OR as we only need Chelsea to drop point in one match, not both if we win both our matches.

Also isn't it "neither/nor" and not "neither/and"?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 12, 2025, 11:18:30 AM
I put neither/nor. And others were confused. It was badly written.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 12, 2025, 11:28:28 AM
I don't want Sunday after Sunday of football. I've got an U11 team to manage and 2pm KOs would make it too difficult to make.
Agree, it’s a real pain if you try to use the trains on a Sunday.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 12, 2025, 11:33:24 AM
I don't want Sunday after Sunday of football. I've got an U11 team to manage and 2pm KOs would make it too difficult to make.

The truly elite managers learn to deal with the vagaries of the fixtures schedule.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on May 12, 2025, 11:38:52 AM
If you go solely by the form table, we couldn't have 2 better opponents for our last 2 games - https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/formtabelle/wettbewerb/GB1.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on May 12, 2025, 11:39:29 AM
I thought Newcastle were rubbish yesterday- particularly second half - and pretty lucky.

If they play like that against Everton, I wouldn't be totally surprised if Everton acted as spoilers and got something.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 12, 2025, 11:39:57 AM
Maybe but Drummond has been demanding in his own way for many years now. What more can he do?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: itmustbe_it is! on May 12, 2025, 11:47:34 AM
I put neither/nor. And others were confused. It was badly written.

I'm still confused tbh. Newcastle need to beat either Arse or Everton to guarantee we can't catch them, barring some bizarre goal difference swing.They don't need to beat both of them. But two draws we would be above them if we win out. That's right isnt it ?

Chelsea just need to drop points against either Man U or Forest , and if we win out we are ahead of them too.

Man City need 4 points to stay above us if we win out.

Forest don't matter so long as we take care of our own business.

IF I've got all that in my head right , then I fancy us. Phew !
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on May 12, 2025, 11:48:58 AM
I don't want Sunday after Sunday of football. I've got an U11 team to manage and 2pm KOs would make it too difficult to make.

The truly elite managers learn to deal with the vagaries of the fixtures schedule.

Yep, they do.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on May 12, 2025, 11:49:50 AM
Maybe but Drummond has been demanding in his own way for many years now. What more can he do?

My own way isn't very demanding at all. Silent but deadly approach from me.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 12, 2025, 11:52:12 AM
I put neither/nor. And others were confused. It was badly written.

I'm still confused tbh. Newcastle need to beat either Arse or Everton to guarantee we can't catch them, barring some bizarre goal difference swing.They don't need to beat both of them. But two draws we would be above them if we win out. That's right isnt it ?

Chelsea just need to drop points against either Man U or Forest , and if we win out we are ahead of them too.

Man City need 4 points to stay above us if we win out.

Forest don't matter so long as we take care of our own business.

IF I've got all that in my head right , then I fancy us. Phew !

Yep, I think that's right.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on May 12, 2025, 12:08:17 PM
As per John Townley, we are CL if we win our last two games and one of the below happens...

▪️Chelsea don't beat both Man Utd and Forest
▪️Newcastle don't beat Arsenal and Everton
▪️Man City lose to either B'mouth or Fulham
▪️Arsenal take only one point from final three

One of those will happen, right?
I'll happily take any European football we can get - not going to start getting sniffy about "only" playing in the Conference League.  However, the Europa League place is in our hands now.  That's a big thing, I suspect being in that won't overly harm our ability to attract the players we want anyway as we'd most likely be one of the favourites to win it.

I'd think if we win both of our games, we'll probably be in the Champions League. There's got to be a decent chance of one of Chelsea, Newcastle, Man City, Arsenal, and us slipping up in the last 2 games.  We've just got to make sure it's not us. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Keeno on May 12, 2025, 12:14:55 PM
As per John Townley, we are CL if we win our last two games and one of the below happens...

▪️Chelsea don't beat both Man Utd and Forest
▪️Newcastle don't beat Arsenal and Everton
▪️Man City lose to either B'mouth or Fulham
▪️Arsenal take only one point from final three

One of those will happen, right?
I'll happily take any European football we can get - not going to start getting sniffy about "only" playing in the Conference League.  However, the Europa League place is in our hands now.  That's a big thing, I suspect being in that won't overly harm our ability to attract the players we want anyway as we'd most likely be one of the favourites to win it.

I'd think if we win both of our games, we'll probably be in the Champions League. There's got to be a decent chance of one of Chelsea, Newcastle, Man City, Arsenal, and us slipping up in the last 2 games.  We've just got to make sure it's not us. 

Agreed - it's worth saying too that the Europa League would offer us 2 routes into the Champions League next season, rather than one. And we have the best Europa League manager of all time managing us. So could make for an incredibly fun season.

That Forest draw yesterday really makes it likely we can secure Europa even if things don't go our way for Champions League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ASHTONVILLA on May 12, 2025, 12:20:41 PM
I still think we will qualify for it. We must be the most in form team in the league now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 12, 2025, 12:27:32 PM
I still think we will qualify for it. We must be the most in form team in the league now.

Depends on how long you consider "form" to go back. Over the last five games we're third, behind Man City and Brentford.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on May 12, 2025, 12:37:11 PM
Having a good chance of winning the Europa would, indeed, be fun but winning the league would be even more fun and I honestly believe this squad with a couple of additions is capable. Being in the Champions League is the only way that can happen.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on May 12, 2025, 12:44:03 PM
If we were defending in the first half of the season as we are now we would be comfortably positioned in the top 3. As it is we are only a few points back of that position despite having such a terrible GD for the vast majority of the season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 12, 2025, 12:45:15 PM
Having a good chance of winning the Europa would, indeed, be fun but winning the league would be even more fun and I honestly believe this squad with a couple of additions is capable. Being in the Champions League is the only way that can happen.

This is correct. Also, Sunday games are shite.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: teamvillage on May 12, 2025, 01:12:18 PM
Opta essentially have us with a c90% chance of us being in either CL or EL next season.

They have us at 20% of finishing 7th. That would have to happen plus Palace beat Man City in the cup final for us to end up in the Conference League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brend'Watkins on May 12, 2025, 01:19:30 PM
So to conclude, finishing Top 5 is bigger than winning any cup but CL. It shouldn’t be that way but it is.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on May 12, 2025, 01:24:31 PM
I still think we will qualify for it. We must be the most in form team in the league now.

Depends on how long you consider "form" to go back. Over the last five games we're third, behind Man City and Brentford.

Yes, because they both have 4 wins and a draw, to our four wins and a loss.  Go back 6 games, 8 games, 10 games, we're top of the form table in all of them.   Our only blip in the last 8 league games is the last-minute loss to Man City.

If we can maintain our momentum on Friday, I think we'll do it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Olof's Beard on May 12, 2025, 01:26:28 PM
The parallels with the run to Europa Conference in 2023 are stark. We won 1-0 on the south coast with an Ollie goal then, ground out a 1-0 win against Fulham with a goal from a set piece and beat Spurs at home in mid May. What happened at Old Trafford though? Lost to a goal from Ratface.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 12, 2025, 01:29:06 PM
What happened at Old Trafford though? Lost to a goal from Ratface.

That was then, this is now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on May 12, 2025, 01:35:05 PM
Getting into the Europa and immediately being one of the favourites to for it would be great but it's still consolation prize after getting the Champions League QF this year. We've had a taste of competing with the very best in Europe and looked at home, we should be aiming for that same level as often as possible.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 12, 2025, 01:44:23 PM
The parallels with the run to Europa Conference in 2023 are stark. We won 1-0 on the south coast with an Ollie goal then, ground out a 1-0 win against Fulham with a goal from a set piece and beat Spurs at home in mid May. What happened at Old Trafford though? Lost to a goal from Ratface.
Rashford assist
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: devilla on May 12, 2025, 01:45:52 PM
So our last two games are against the two teams just above the relegation places and one of them is red filth away. What could possibly go wrong....?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Pat Mustard on May 12, 2025, 02:04:48 PM
I feel dirty for saying it, but we really could do with Man C115y winning the FA Cup now.  Not only would that guarantee Europa League but it might just also give us a better opportunity of getting into the CL.  If they do win it means Europe will go down to 8th place in the league thus meaning Bournemouth could still qualify, as long as they beat C115y next Wednesday.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rougegorge on May 12, 2025, 02:54:29 PM
I feel dirty for saying it, but we really could do with Man C115y winning the FA Cup now.  Not only would that guarantee Europa League but it might just also give us a better opportunity of getting into the CL.  If they do win it means Europe will go down to 8th place in the league thus meaning Bournemouth could still qualify, as long as they beat C115y next Wednesday.
I agree. Whilst we really need to win the last two games, it would still be better to have secured a Europa League place if Man City win the cup.

If Palace do win the Cup, then 4 points from our last two games would guarantee at least Europa League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 12, 2025, 02:59:53 PM
I'm reserving judgement on what I'd like to happen in the cup final until our match on Friday
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 12, 2025, 05:12:36 PM
I'm wanting Man City to win it, regardless. It's basically meaningless for them and we can forget this year's cup. However, if Palace win it, we'll be reminded of our abject surrender for the rest of time (or at least until the final after I die, when we finally win it, to spite me).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 12, 2025, 05:18:25 PM
cdbearsfan now at risk of assassination. If only there was a poster with the machinery of state to call on. You know it makes sense Wills.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on May 12, 2025, 05:20:43 PM
I think one disadvantage of Palace winning the cup would be that we might, at some stage, have to bloody play them in the Europa League!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: stevo_st on May 12, 2025, 05:30:55 PM
'Super' computer predicting us as having a 40.5% chance of top 5 after the weekend fixtures.
Up from 15.2% the week before.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on May 12, 2025, 05:31:28 PM
Having a good chance of winning the Europa would, indeed, be fun but winning the league would be even more fun and I honestly believe this squad with a couple of additions is capable. Being in the Champions League is the only way that can happen.

Agree 100%.

With a top striker and a new right-back and maybe a top centre-back, we could definitely win the league.

It's closer than people think.

MC will get punished and fall away and then it's out of us, Arsenal and Liverpool.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 12, 2025, 05:32:17 PM
cdbearsfan now at risk of assassination. If only there was a poster with the machinery of state to call on. You know it makes sense Wills.

If he's looking for me in The Barton's, I'm the one with the Northern accent, honest!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on May 12, 2025, 06:21:42 PM
Having a good chance of winning the Europa would, indeed, be fun but winning the league would be even more fun and I honestly believe this squad with a couple of additions is capable. Being in the Champions League is the only way that can happen.

Agree 100%.

With a top striker and a new right-back and maybe a top centre-back, we could definitely win the league.

It's closer than people think.

MC will get punished and fall away and then it's out of us, Arsenal and Liverpool.

Is our squad likely to have no departures though? If we just added in the positions you mentioned I could see your thinking but I don’t think it’s likely.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on May 12, 2025, 06:32:10 PM
'Super' computer predicting us as having a 40.5% chance of top 5 after the weekend fixtures.
Up from 15.2% the week before.

We had something ridiculous like 0.5% chance at one point.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 12, 2025, 06:35:14 PM
Second in the league against the top half this season. Just need to learn to beat the shit (Palace, Ipswich, Man United, Spurs).

Agreed on the league thing. If Konsa had connected that header, we'd probably be playing in a Champions League final too. We're comfortably better than Arsenal at this precise moment.

Fine margins, but we're a really good side. Hope we can get this done and take another step. Momentum is everything and missing out could be really costly.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 12, 2025, 06:37:47 PM
'Super' computer predicting us as having a 40.5% chance of top 5 after the weekend fixtures.
Up from 15.2% the week before.

We had something ridiculous like 0.5% chance at one point.

Those predictor things are a load of shite
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 12, 2025, 06:39:50 PM
We have had to drop three points in nearly a quarter of a season to pull it back (and we're still outside the top 5). Might be close to evens now, but the odds were very long at one stage and rightly so.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on May 12, 2025, 06:45:40 PM
Having a good chance of winning the Europa would, indeed, be fun but winning the league would be even more fun and I honestly believe this squad with a couple of additions is capable. Being in the Champions League is the only way that can happen.

This is what I think too.  We’re so close with this manager. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: IFWaters on May 12, 2025, 07:19:58 PM
The other reason I want Manc cheats to win the FA Cup is that it would stop Kryptonite Palace playing us in the Europa League. We all know how that would end up.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on May 12, 2025, 07:21:33 PM
The other reason I want Manc cheats to win the FA Cup is that it would stop Kryptonite Palace playing us in the Europa League. We all know how that would end up.

Oh yes. Shudder!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 12, 2025, 09:10:46 PM
I just scooted back to look at the Liverpool match in Feb and Transfermkt stats shows the table at the time.(Well gameweek 29 after everyone completed those matches.)

 #   Club                              Pts
1    Liverpool FC              70
2    Arsenal FC                           58
3    Nottingham Forest      54
4    Newcastle United      50
5    Chelsea FC                   49
6    Manchester City              48
7    Brighton & Hove Albion   47
8    Fulham FC                           45
9    Aston Villa                         45
10    AFC Bournemouth           44
11    Brentford FC                   41
12    Crystal Palace                    39
13    Manchester United           37
14    Tottenham Hotspur           34
15    Everton FC                        34
16    West Ham United               34
17    Wolverhampton Wanderers   26
18    Ipswich Town                   17
19    Leicester City                   17
20    Southampton FC                  9

It shows us how far we have come with the most points gained 18 points in those 7 matches. Citeh are second with 17. Bottom is Manure on 2 and then Southampton, followed by Spurs.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 13, 2025, 12:29:10 PM
Beat Tottenham 7-0, lose to Man U 1-0.

Forest draw 3-3 with West Ham, beat Chelsea 4-3.

Chelsea fail to beat Man U.

Result: Villa and Forest have to playoff for final Champions League spot. That would be exciting.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on May 13, 2025, 12:32:18 PM
Hopefully Forest would play 5 at the back again.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithe on May 14, 2025, 10:58:26 AM
If we were to qualify in 5th position, do we, or any other team finishing there, go straight into that league thingy or is there a qualifying round before that?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on May 14, 2025, 11:09:16 AM
Straight in I think.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on May 14, 2025, 11:09:45 AM
If we were to qualify in 5th position, do we, or any other team finishing there, go straight into that league thingy or is there a qualifying round before that?

Straight to League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithe on May 14, 2025, 11:27:00 AM
Ta
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on May 14, 2025, 11:31:15 AM
The other reason I want Manc cheats to win the FA Cup is that it would stop Kryptonite Palace playing us in the Europa League. We all know how that would end up.

Excellent point.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 14, 2025, 04:39:00 PM
12 months ago today we clinched CL football thanks to ManC beating Spurs 2-0.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aldridgeboy on May 14, 2025, 04:56:29 PM
I’ve only just noticed , but if we win our last two games we actually get more points than last year.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 14, 2025, 08:41:51 PM
Has been mentioned on here along with we could be 1-2 places lower even with the higher points. I did have a look and 69 points for 5th (or better) is about 50/50 usually anyway, at least for the last 10 years. One season we would have been 7th. Another 3rd.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 14, 2025, 10:05:30 PM
Pat Nevin reckons we will miss out on GD .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 14, 2025, 10:08:44 PM
Pat Nevin reckons we will miss out on GD .

He also said we were a really good team and only missing out due to our cup runs also happening. (If he is correct on GD).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 14, 2025, 10:11:51 PM
Bully Wee legend. Hope he's wrong about Villa.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 14, 2025, 10:13:24 PM
Bully Wee legend. Hope he's wrong about Villa.

He has us a lot closer then you do with your predictions.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 14, 2025, 10:30:40 PM
Obviously I hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 14, 2025, 10:31:37 PM
Pat Nevin reckons we will miss out on GD .

He also said we were a really good team and only missing out due to our cup runs also happening. (If he is correct on GD).
He did , says we are the best team in the group so was very accurate and complimentary . He's a decent pundit .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on May 14, 2025, 10:32:53 PM
I'm not sure what he has predicted, but I'm still going for the 3 way 69 (oooerr). Not sure about Citeh, now, maybe they'll make it a 4 way.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 14, 2025, 10:36:53 PM
Pat Nevin reckons we will miss out on GD .

He also likes the Cocteau Twins and Genesis so there's still hope.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on May 15, 2025, 09:05:53 AM
Pat Nevin reckons we will miss out on GD .

He also likes the Cocteau Twins and Genesis so there's still hope.

I agree with him.

About the results, not the Cocteau Twins and Genesis.

I'm worried the Forest nonsense at the weekend has finished them and Chelsea will go there and win, but I've decided I'm not going to get worked up about it and the Europa League is fine.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on May 15, 2025, 09:11:32 AM
I agree with LeeB and (seemingly) Pat Nevin. About the Villa. I like the Cocteau Twins but Genesis can fuck off back to before the beginning.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 15, 2025, 09:14:34 AM
Nevin's comments (not about Genesis).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/videos/c4gkjj06jngo
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 15, 2025, 09:15:07 AM
I'm worried the Forest nonsense at the weekend has finished them and Chelsea will go there and win, but I've decided I'm not going to get worked up about it and the Europa League is fine.

Chelsea have also only won once away in the league since the beginning of December (the same as Southampton, Ipswich and Leicester over that time). So while Man Utd aren't much good, I wouldn't be putting huge amounts of money on a Chelsea win on Friday.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 15, 2025, 09:15:48 AM
If anything, won't Forest be galvanised after the world and its Gary Neville has had their say on what happened at the end of their match on Sunday? C'mon you tricky Trees (but not too much).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 15, 2025, 09:16:48 AM
I'm worried the Forest nonsense at the weekend has finished them and Chelsea will go there and win, but I've decided I'm not going to get worked up about it and the Europa League is fine.

Chelsea also have only won away win in the league since the beginning of December (the same as Southampton, Ipswich and Leicester over that time). So while Man Utd aren't much good, I wouldn't be putting huge amounts of money on a Chelsea win on Friday.

I suspect it will depend on how many first teamers he drops AND how up for it their replacements are. Similar to our boat on Friday and the final Sunday.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 15, 2025, 09:17:00 AM
If Forest get beaten at W Ham, will they be out of the Euro places assuming us and Chelsea win ?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 15, 2025, 09:17:00 AM
I'm worried the Forest nonsense at the weekend has finished them and Chelsea will go there and win, but I've decided I'm not going to get worked up about it and the Europa League is fine.

Chelsea also have only won away win in the league since the beginning of December (the same as Southampton, Ipswich and Leicester over that time). So while Man Utd aren't much good, I wouldn't be putting huge amounts of money on a Chelsea win on Friday.

Chelsea are at home to Man U (away to Forest).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 15, 2025, 09:17:38 AM
I'm worried the Forest nonsense at the weekend has finished them and Chelsea will go there and win, but I've decided I'm not going to get worked up about it and the Europa League is fine.

Chelsea also have only won away win in the league since the beginning of December (the same as Southampton, Ipswich and Leicester over that time). So while Man Utd aren't much good, I wouldn't be putting huge amounts of money on a Chelsea win on Friday.

Chelsea are at home to Man U (away to Forest).

Well, I'll be quiet then. They'll just have to lose against Forest instead.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 15, 2025, 09:18:40 AM
If Forest get beaten at W Ham, will they be out of the Euro places assuming us and Chelsea win ?

They're already guaranteed European football. They'd be out of the running for a place in the Champions League in those circumstances. Whether they qualify for Europa League or Conference League would depend on who wins the FA Cup, their final league game would make no odds as they'd be guaranteed seventh.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: kippaxvilla2 on May 15, 2025, 09:19:01 AM
I'm worried the Forest nonsense at the weekend has finished them and Chelsea will go there and win, but I've decided I'm not going to get worked up about it and the Europa League is fine.

Chelsea are at home though.

Chelsea have also only won once away in the league since the beginning of December (the same as Southampton, Ipswich and Leicester over that time). So while Man Utd aren't much good, I wouldn't be putting huge amounts of money on a Chelsea win on Friday.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 15, 2025, 09:20:18 AM
So we need them to win at Wham, to be up for th Chelsea game, assuming we win both?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 15, 2025, 09:22:22 AM
I'd rather as many teams around us as possible lost, to be honest. Even if Forest are guaranteed seventh, I can't see why they wouldn't try to finish the season on a high by getting something against Chelsea. The fewer teams that can finish above us the better, IMO. Forest losing to West Ham also opens up the possibility of us sneaking into the Champions League with four or maybe even three points.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on May 15, 2025, 09:22:35 AM
So we need them to win at Wham, to be up for th Chelsea game, assuming we win both?

Yes, we need them to still have a chance if they beat Chelsea and we don't win at Old Trafford.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on May 15, 2025, 09:23:45 AM
The overall picture is pretty clear now.
We have to get 6 points in the next 2 games and hope that Chelsea don’t.

It’s that simple really.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on May 15, 2025, 09:24:28 AM
I agree with LeeB and (seemingly) Pat Nevin. About the Villa. I like the Cocteau Twins but Genesis can fuck off back to before the beginning.

I quite like Peter Gabriel though.

There, I've said it. Feels like a weight has been lifted.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Archbishop Herbert Cockthrottle on May 15, 2025, 09:24:52 AM
Villa will end up in 5th spot on 67 points.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 15, 2025, 09:26:17 AM
The overall picture is pretty clear now.
We have to get 6 points in the next 2 games and hope that Chelsea don’t.

It’s that simple really.

It's considerably less simple. We could still qualify if both Villa and Chelsea get six points depending on how Arsenal, Newcastle and Man City get on. We could even qualify with two draws if we're incredibly lucky with other results.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Monty on May 15, 2025, 09:27:01 AM
At the very least I want top 6 so I don't have to want Man City to win anything.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Archbishop Herbert Cockthrottle on May 15, 2025, 09:27:19 AM
I agree with LeeB and (seemingly) Pat Nevin. About the Villa. I like the Cocteau Twins but Genesis can fuck off back to before the beginning.

I quite like Peter Gabriel though.

There, I've said it. Feels like a weight has been lifted.

Post Gabriel Genesis, post Peter Green Fleetwood Mac and post Eno Roxy Music can all fuck off into a big shit pit of Partidgesque MoR.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 15, 2025, 09:34:27 AM
Who was the lead singer for Genesis before Phil Collins?
Answers on a postcard please to Peter Gabriel competition....
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on May 15, 2025, 09:34:39 AM
I agree with LeeB and (seemingly) Pat Nevin. About the Villa. I like the Cocteau Twins but Genesis can fuck off back to before the beginning.

I quite like Peter Gabriel though.

There, I've said it. Feels like a weight has been lifted.

Post Gabriel Genesis, post Peter Green Fleetwood Mac and post Eno Roxy Music can all fuck off into a big shit pit of Partidgesque MoR.

Post-Freddie Queen though, what an excellent idea!

I mean, I hate Queen with or without Freddie Mercury, but what kind of lowlife, money-grubbing shysters do you have to be to think, 'do you know what made us special? The three no-marks that look like they were rejected from joining the paperclip industry because they weren't sexy enough. Let's just replace the singer - what was he bringing to the party anyway?!'

Jesus fucking Christ.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 15, 2025, 09:35:59 AM
At the very least I want top 6 so I don't have to want Man City to win anything.

What will be frustrating is if we finish 6th and then City get a points deduction for their infractions which applies next season. I think if we miss 5th we should aspire to 6th in case City get punish as they should.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 15, 2025, 09:38:38 AM
I know it's not very likely... but say Man City missed out on top five, won the cup, and got a massive points deduction dropping them to just above the relegation places. Would they still qualify for Europa by virtue of winning the cup or would such a penalty automatically disqualify them from European competition?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 15, 2025, 09:40:36 AM
I know it's not very likely... but say Man City missed out on top five, won the cup, and got a massive points deduction dropping them to just above the relegation places. Would they still qualify for Europa by virtue of winning the cup or would such a penalty automatically disqualify them from European competition?
I don’t see how it could, unless UEFA were part of the sanctioning process.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 15, 2025, 09:41:43 AM
So it is possible a points deduction could effectively be no penalty at all, then. Like when the Football League waited until Small Heath had no chance of going up and then deducted them just enough points to ensure that there was no chance of them going down.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeS on May 15, 2025, 10:49:14 AM
On the Premier League app (the one you do your fantasy footy on) all the pundits have us getting 5th. I agree with them. We won’t drop points, Chelsea will.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 15, 2025, 11:11:19 AM
Yep. Famously, we never drop points against Man U.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 15, 2025, 11:27:51 AM
Indeed - if Spurs and Manure perform as they have as late we should comfortably win both, but we know it’s typically never simple. Better playing Manure away than home though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on May 15, 2025, 11:49:34 AM
So it is possible a points deduction could effectively be no penalty at all, then. Like when the Football League waited until Small Heath had no chance of going up and then deducted them just enough points to ensure that there was no chance of them going down.

My guess.

ManC will be deducted 35-40 points, putting them 17th. That will be applied in August so applying to 24-25, before next season, but they will have done their transfer business by then just before they get a two window ban.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 15, 2025, 11:52:34 AM
Doubt it, I’d be very surprised if they end up being kicked out of Europe. Transfer ban might happen,
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brend'Watkins on May 15, 2025, 12:40:31 PM
So it is possible a points deduction could effectively be no penalty at all, then. Like when the Football League waited until Small Heath had no chance of going up and then deducted them just enough points to ensure that there was no chance of them going down.

My guess.

ManC will be deducted 35-40 points, putting them 17th. That will be applied in August so applying to 24-25, before next season, but they will have done their transfer business by then just before they get a two window ban.

So no real punishment then? Unless the transfer ban is for two or three seasons.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on May 15, 2025, 12:55:04 PM
If they imposed that sort of punishment, presumably they would be stripped of past trophies as well.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Archbishop Herbert Cockthrottle on May 15, 2025, 01:08:29 PM
I agree with LeeB and (seemingly) Pat Nevin. About the Villa. I like the Cocteau Twins but Genesis can fuck off back to before the beginning.

I quite like Peter Gabriel though.

There, I've said it. Feels like a weight has been lifted.

Post Gabriel Genesis, post Peter Green Fleetwood Mac and post Eno Roxy Music can all fuck off into a big shit pit of Partidgesque MoR.

Post-Freddie Queen though, what an excellent idea!

I mean, I hate Queen with or without Freddie Mercury, but what kind of lowlife, money-grubbing shysters do you have to be to think, 'do you know what made us special? The three no-marks that look like they were rejected from joining the paperclip industry because they weren't sexy enough. Let's just replace the singer - what was he bringing to the party anyway?!'

Jesus fucking Christ.

Freddie? When did he leave?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Hookeysmith on May 15, 2025, 01:48:23 PM
Lets be positive (although very difficult knowing we have to go the Red filths shit hole and need to win) but if we win both and results go our way we can still finish runners up  ;)

Arsenal vs Newcastle - both cannot win and are both 5 and 3 points respectively above us at present - a draw is ok also but does stop our ability to get 2nd on GD

Bournemouth - fresh from a victory at Arsenal, will give 118 a game and could take 1 or all points - 118 currently 2 points above us

So assuming we beat Spurs we can go into the last game with a lot of options - cannot ask for more than that

Fulham are no mugs at home
Everton can be stubborn buggers and get something at Jawdiedome

Need to bring the house down tomorrow night

And we have (currently) a lot of momentum
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 15, 2025, 01:53:09 PM
The closer to the last matches, the more teams have nothing to play for. If CP win the FA Cup, then Fulham don't even have Europe to fight for. Obviously positions are worth about £3mil but will that be enough for some teams not to be giving youth debuts?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on May 15, 2025, 02:22:18 PM
Given that sometimes are on the beach at the end of the season, it doesn't seem as bad as what it was at one stage.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Hookeysmith on May 15, 2025, 02:57:58 PM
My worry is Red filths mentality swings

If they win the cup  = Will they go into the last game, parade the trophy and show their tossers who support them all is well and onto next season - beat the Villa  - same as it ever was?

Lose the final - Having to play knowing no European football for next season, especially Champs league, and their players having to face a potential boo fest from when (hopefully) our first goal goes in. The financial issues will cripple them, especially in the face of trying to get rid of half of their current over valued, over paid knob head players. Man of the people Radcliffe will probably start sacking people before the end of the game.

So with the vomit rising in my throat - i have to say "Come on you Spurs in the final"  :'( :o
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on May 15, 2025, 03:02:38 PM
So it is possible a points deduction could effectively be no penalty at all, then. Like when the Football League waited until Small Heath had no chance of going up and then deducted them just enough points to ensure that there was no chance of them going down.

My guess.

ManC will be deducted 35-40 points, putting them 17th. That will be applied in August so applying to 24-25, before next season, but they will have done their transfer business by then just before they get a two window ban.

So no real punishment then? Unless the transfer ban is for two or three seasons.

Yep. That's my guess.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on May 15, 2025, 03:11:41 PM
The will be docked points for all league games they will play between the end of May and the start of August. That will learn 'em.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 15, 2025, 03:38:25 PM
For work-related reasons, I found myself literally forced into writing a program to determine all the different permutations for the remaining games to see how many saw us get a Champions League place.

As of today, there are 59,049 permutations that can impact the top 7. Only 33% of those see us get top 5, with 37% seeing us get 6th.

Boooo.  >:(

So, I re-ran the Muskahound Supercomputer, removing our fixtures and instead setting our final number of points.

6 pts4 pts3 pts2 pts1 pts0 pts
   3rd      33%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      
   4th      47%      22%      2%      0%      0%      0%      
   5th      18%      49%      27%      7%      0%      0%      
   6th      1%      26%      61%      63%      44%      11%      
   7th      0%      0%      9%      29%      56%      89%      

So, that's settled.

I now have to go and bury my code in the garden to stop those Opta chumps trying to steal my secrets.  8)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 15, 2025, 03:41:00 PM
Good work. And a hearty "welcome back".
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on May 15, 2025, 03:42:50 PM
What a comeback!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on May 15, 2025, 03:48:26 PM
Welcome back Doggy. One for all and all for one!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 15, 2025, 03:48:34 PM
Cheers!

I've just had a peak at the daunting list of updated topics...  :-\
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeS on May 15, 2025, 04:19:33 PM
Cheers!

I've just had a peak at the daunting list of updated topics...  :-\

Don’t worry, get your computer model to remove any started by Footy-Vill and the picture improves.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on May 15, 2025, 04:35:15 PM
Cheers!

I've just had a peak at the daunting list of updated topics...  :-\

Don’t worry, get your computer model to remove any started by Footy-Vill and the picture improves.

In summary..

We will
We won't
He's shit
He's great
He's going
He's staying
He's coming
He's not
It's looking the wrong way
It's not big enough
Where's my beer?
That lot.... Hahahahahahahaha
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 15, 2025, 05:03:19 PM
Welcome back Dogtanian. Nice to see you've been keeping yourself busy 🙂
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 15, 2025, 05:04:15 PM
Cheers!

I've just had a peak at the daunting list of updated topics...  :-\

Get the Muskehounds to help out.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on May 15, 2025, 07:46:12 PM
Just heard Matt Law on a podcast, he pricked my balloon of confidence somewhat. To paraphrase, they threw the Palace game for R&R reasons, but will try harder and pick more of their best players in this one.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 15, 2025, 07:48:20 PM
Uh oh, not the best players that have won one league game since February.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on May 15, 2025, 07:54:11 PM
Uh oh, not the best players that have won one league game since February.

He’s a Villa fan isn’t he? I’ll put it down to our natural pessimism. On the plus side, he also mentioned Chelsea’s terrible record against Man Utd.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on May 15, 2025, 08:33:22 PM
So from Dogtanian's analysis...win our last 2 games and there's a 99% chance of Champions League football?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 15, 2025, 08:36:47 PM
Uh oh, not the best players that have won one league game since February.

Exactly, this lot are fucking wank
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: itbrvilla on May 16, 2025, 11:45:06 AM
I can't help but shake the feeling the Man City loss will cost us big. Can't see Chelsea loosing tonight, and Forest have been shit since we beat them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Steve67 on May 16, 2025, 12:18:38 PM
We need to take care of our own business tonight and against Man Yew and hope, cross everything that Forest somehow come good Lazarus stylee against Chelsea.  I guess Chelsea will also have to do a bit of protecting their squad because they also have a Euro final to play.  I think they are firm favourites to win the 5th spot though.

I read this morning that there is some suggestion of a 6th ECL spot, I presume it is clickbait nonsense.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Monty on May 16, 2025, 12:19:48 PM
There will be six Premier League teams in the Champions League next year.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 16, 2025, 12:20:34 PM
Yes, 5 in the league and one of the twats next week.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 16, 2025, 12:21:02 PM
Not via the league though. Top five only (in case Steve was thinking it could advantage us, it can't).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 16, 2025, 01:31:11 PM
Dogtanian, where the heck have you been? This place has both gone to the dogs and gone dogging without you.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 16, 2025, 02:17:12 PM
Dogtanian, where the heck have you been? This place has both gone to the dogs and gone dogging without you.

If anyone has gone dogging, rest assured, I was there in spirit!  :P
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 16, 2025, 02:21:56 PM
So from Dogtanian's analysis...win our last 2 games and there's a 99% chance of Champions League football?

Well, my analysis is merely looking at every possible permutation of all matches and then looking at how many of those result in us getting top 5. But it doesn't look at the likelihood of any possible permutation.

So in other words, every game has a 1 in 3 chance of being a win, loss, or draw for a given side, but we all know that it's rarely that simple.

Obviously, the more permutations in your favour the better!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Archbishop Herbert Cockthrottle on May 16, 2025, 02:36:17 PM
Just back from a trip in my time machine and brought this back with me.

(https://i.ibb.co/m5LNgCWH/Screenshot-20250516-143430.png) (https://ibb.co/m5LNgCWH)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on May 16, 2025, 03:03:55 PM
Is there any way we can get us and Forest in and the moneyed clubs (Man City & Chelsea) miss out?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 16, 2025, 03:08:29 PM
I have two problems with Forest getting in the Champions League, plus another one;

1. Their owner.
2. It cheapens our achievement if any old tat can do it.
3. They literally cheated and overspent and have pretty much got away with it scot free.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 16, 2025, 03:35:29 PM
I don’t think we make it if Chelsea do.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 16, 2025, 03:52:13 PM
Is there any way we can get us and Forest in and the moneyed clubs (Man City & Chelsea) miss out?

Yep. Villa and Forest both win their remaining games, Man City fail to win either of theirs. We could also both finish above Newcastle in the unlikely event they fail to take more than a point from their final two matches.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Steve67 on May 16, 2025, 04:40:50 PM
Not via the league though. Top five only (in case Steve was thinking it could advantage us, it can't).

I’m a silly old bugger because I’d forgotten about the Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United cup final. It does seem ridiculous though doesn’t it? Two teams who are 17th and 16th in the league table can end up in the Champions League. What an absolute farce, they should be embarrassed with themselves.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 16, 2025, 05:06:10 PM
Not via the league though. Top five only (in case Steve was thinking it could advantage us, it can't).

I’m a silly old bugger because I’d forgotten about the Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United cup final. It does seem ridiculous though doesn’t it? Two teams who are 17th and 16th in the league table can end up in the Champions League. What an absolute farce, they should be embarrassed with themselves.

They should definitely be embarrassed with themselves for being there in the league.

In a European context, Lyon, Bilbao, Frankfurt, Real Sociedad, Alkmaar etc should be embarrassed with themselves for letting these showers past them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 16, 2025, 05:08:23 PM
Well, maybe. But what are Tottenham and Man U's budgets compared to those sides?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 16, 2025, 05:10:33 PM
Well, maybe. But what are Tottenham and Man U's budgets compared to those sides?

Astronomical. But they're also astronomical compared the budgets of Bournemouth and Fulham, who don't seem to have founds being miles better than them a problem.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 16, 2025, 05:23:41 PM
Sometimes teams underperform in certain competitions. See, Aston Villa, FA Cup, 1958-. It doesn't mean they can't perform in other games. It would still have been a shock if a team from the Netherlands, a team from France other than PSG, a team from Germany that isn't Bayern Munich or a team consisting entirely of Basque players beat teams costing hundreds of millions.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 16, 2025, 10:31:56 PM
Still on going into the final day.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 16, 2025, 10:32:08 PM
There could be 1 point separating 5 teams going into the last day.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 16, 2025, 10:32:57 PM
I don’t know why but I’ve a sneaking suspicion Citeh will lose one of their games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: stevo_st on May 16, 2025, 10:37:16 PM
I think we’ll get fecked over by goal difference with 4 teams all on 69 points.
Ending the debate forever on whether goal difference gives you an extra point.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 16, 2025, 10:38:00 PM
It will be a hell of a finish though, for all teams involved.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on May 16, 2025, 10:39:00 PM
Guessing our game will be on TV now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 16, 2025, 10:40:21 PM
What we really need is Forest to win at West Ham.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 16, 2025, 10:40:34 PM
I don’t know why but I’ve a sneaking suspicion Citeh will lose one of their games.

I think that the big exciting twist is Hudson-Odoi getting a narrative-fulled late equaliser against Chelsea.

And I was saying ages ago that Forest wouldn't beat Leicester in their derby because That's What The Story Demands, so you can trust the above.

Although The Story does probably also require us to not beat Man Utd.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Goldenballs on May 16, 2025, 10:41:18 PM
I don't know what to think any more.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 16, 2025, 10:43:16 PM
Guessing our game will be on TV now.

I expect all four will be. And MOTD will do that league table changes jump around the matches as well on the evening.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 16, 2025, 11:01:24 PM
I stick with the view I’ve had for a while - if we make 69 points and don’t reach the Champions League then fair play, we’ve done remarkably well given we’ve had to cope with Champions League football too.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 16, 2025, 11:03:19 PM
Before tonight, we had to win our last two games. Now we have to win one game, that's all that really matters tonight.

It would have been nice if Chelsea had dropped points tonight, and left it in our own hands, but it was probably the most unlikely result to go in our favour given the circumstances. Citeh have two tricky games in a week, Chelsea still have to go to Forest, and Newcastle may need to beat Everton on the last day. That may or may not happen, but I'm not writing us off just yet because Chelsea laboured to beat Yanited 1-0.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 16, 2025, 11:04:58 PM
Precisely, we need to win and then let’s see.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on May 16, 2025, 11:10:02 PM
What we really need is Forest to win at West Ham.
Hell Yeah - and Arsenal to beat Newcatsle, and Bournemouth to beat Man City.  Keep it as close as possible and hope for lady luck
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 16, 2025, 11:12:36 PM
What we really need is Forest to win at West Ham.
Hell Yeah - and Arsenal to beat Newcatsle, and Bournemouth to beat Man City.  Keep it as close as possible and hope for lady luck

That happens and it is in our hands then. No need for Lady Luck (apart from whether GK Onana has a blinder).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 16, 2025, 11:13:06 PM
My other half suggested I might enjoy the last game given the great season we've had. She just doesn't understand.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on May 16, 2025, 11:26:01 PM
What we really need is Forest to win at West Ham.
Hell Yeah - and Arsenal to beat Newcatsle, and Bournemouth to beat Man City.  Keep it as close as possible and hope for lady luck

That happens and it is in our hands then. No need for Lady Luck (apart from whether GK Onana has a blinder).
Were at old trafford - we always need luck
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 16, 2025, 11:27:50 PM
We're in a position where we've got to win the last game whatever happens, so although I have been thinking it would be good for us for Forest to lose tomorrow and be out of it, it might actually be better if they win.  It would keep them right in it going into that last game with Chelsea and if they win that, we'd be in with a win. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 16, 2025, 11:30:19 PM
We're in a position where we've got to win the last game whatever happens, so although I have been thinking it would be good for us for Forest to lose tomorrow and be out of it, it might actually be better if they win.  It would keep them right in it going into that last game with Chelsea and if they win that, we'd be in with a win.

If we win, a draw between Forest and Chelsea would be enough to see us qualify.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 16, 2025, 11:32:02 PM
I think our chances are about 50/50 now. I agree we want Forest to still have something to play for on the last day.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: jwarry on May 17, 2025, 03:34:54 AM
That last minute goal at Citeh is now looking season defining
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on May 17, 2025, 06:02:08 AM
I still think a win at OT will see us through. We need to take care of our own end first.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: RamboandBruno on May 17, 2025, 07:10:07 AM
That last minute goal at Citeh is now looking season defining
We’ve got the best form in the league since February, we’re on an incredible run, that would see us walk the league if it was sustained over a longer period. Theres really no point mulling over the one game we’ve lost in 3 months.

Best scenario I think is if Forest draw at West Ham so still have only an outside chance, then beat Chelsea. That would leave them on 66 and Chelsea on 66, if we drew at Man U then we’d be in, no matter Man City or Newcastle did.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 17, 2025, 07:19:10 AM
That last minute goal at Citeh is now looking season defining

It wasn’t the Man City goal for me.

It was the poor game management at the end of the Bournemouth home game, when we had the thing won and instead of managing the game we just kept booting the ball up the pitch and giving away cheap free kicks and chances till they scored.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ian. on May 17, 2025, 07:36:43 AM
We’re doing all we can, football is all ifs and buts and fine margins. It’s a long old season and the same could be said about the late win against Chelsea as the late defeat against Forest.

Instead of looking at one result I think it’s more down to not having a settled back four and missing Kamara for most of the ‘24 part of the season. It’s no coincidence that since the end of January and being able to pick a more consistent side we’ve started to have clean sheets again.

I’m sure that’s the reason for our early inconsistency, which also put huge pressure at the other end of the pitch as we were very wasteful with our chances and decision making. Again no surprise that since we’ve settled at the back we’ve regularly scored three in a game.

Haven’t I read that we’ve accumulated more point than last season? Which if true, shows it’s been a tougher ride, which is odd as the very top and the bottoms three have been wrapped up for ages.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 17, 2025, 07:39:47 AM
We are two points behind at the minute, so we could surpass it if we beat Man U.

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with hitting 69 points and not getting Champions League because other teams have done better, it’s a respectable tally that would have got it in many seasons.

I just really regret a silly goal that we brought on ourselves knowing how valuable those two points would be now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on May 17, 2025, 07:57:49 AM
Manchester City,  Bournemouth,  Palace, Forest, Ipswich. Shit happens.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 17, 2025, 07:58:10 AM
Every team has the coulda, woulda, shoulda over a season. Although saying it doesn't mean I'm not turning over those near misses in my own head. Chelsea win at Fulham is another that pisses me off.

Nowt to be done about it now, on we go to win at the Temple of Doom and see where it gets us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on May 17, 2025, 08:29:52 AM
Desperately hoping for a Forest win on Sunday. We need them massively pumped up for their last home game of the season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on May 17, 2025, 08:30:39 AM
The big 'what if' for me is 'what if Liverpool hadn't been on the beach when they played Chelsea.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: London Villan on May 17, 2025, 08:36:47 AM
Or had been on the beach when we should have played them…
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 17, 2025, 08:48:25 AM
If we get 69 points I’m pretty relaxed - obviously desperate for us to get top 5, but if we do that and don’t we’ll have done a hell of a job. Yes there are games where we should have picked up more points, but there are probably some where we got more than we deserved. All teams have that - ultimately we’ve pushed right to the end, whilst having a deep Champions League and FA Cup run. It’s some effort.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on May 17, 2025, 08:50:14 AM
Am I right in thinking we are almost guaranteed a minimum of 6th now?

As in, if Chelsea do beat Forest then Forest can't catch us. But if Forest beat Chelsea (and they get a win today) we can both get top 5 ahead of Chelsea (provided we at least get a point at Old Trafford)?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 17, 2025, 08:57:05 AM
Am I right in thinking we are almost guaranteed a minimum of 6th now?

As in, if Chelsea do beat Forest then Forest can't catch us. But if Forest beat Chelsea (and they get a win today) we can both get top 5 ahead of Chelsea (provided we at least get a point at Old Trafford)?

Hadn't thought of this. Point guarantees 6th. Or Forest losing tomorrow. Citeh winning cup guarantees Europa.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on May 17, 2025, 09:00:43 AM
Am I right in thinking we are almost guaranteed a minimum of 6th now?

As in, if Chelsea do beat Forest then Forest can't catch us. But if Forest beat Chelsea (and they get a win today) we can both get top 5 ahead of Chelsea (provided we at least get a point at Old Trafford)?

Hadn't thought of this. Point guarantees 6th. Or Forest losing tomorrow. Citeh winning cup guarantees Europa.

I don't think I can recall an end of season with so many permutations.

It's just such a shame the financial gulf between the Europa League and the Champions League is so vast. I mean the team in 5th and the team in 6th may be separated by goal difference but one will win so much more financially.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ozzjim on May 17, 2025, 09:15:57 AM
They will, but I'm quite relaxed about it. I think we're going to break 70 next season and 2-3 of the sides with Europe will struggle. Newcastle back in CL, Man U won't cope with CL and prem well, Chelsea I think will be very up and down. Forest after Europe could struggle too. Europa might give us a good chance at rotation, rest and a real crack at top 3.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on May 17, 2025, 09:21:51 AM
Am I right in thinking we are almost guaranteed a minimum of 6th now?

As in, if Chelsea do beat Forest then Forest can't catch us. But if Forest beat Chelsea (and they get a win today) we can both get top 5 ahead of Chelsea (provided we at least get a point at Old Trafford)?
We can still finish 7th if we lose on the last day and Forest get a win and a draw in their last 2.  Draw on the last day and Forest would need two wins to go ahead of us, but our draw would put us above Chelsea and in 6th, unless we win against United (then we'd be 5th).

Technically, everyone from Arsenal down is still potentially catchable on the last day (Man City and Newcastle could lose their last 2), so we have a LOT of permutations that can get us into the top 5, but unfortunately, they ALL rely on us winning at Old Trafford and at least one BIG result against the odds for one of Everton, Southampton, Forest, Bournemouth and/or Fulham.

Assuming we win at Old Trafford, we need:

The loser of Arsenal v Newcastle on Sunday to ALSO lose against either Everton or Southamton (a draw on the final day would be enough for Arsenal, but Newcastle would need a win if they draw with Arsenal).  The winner of Arsenal v Newcastle on Sunday would be uncatchable.
Man City to lose to EITHER of Bournemouth or Fulham (Man City need 4 points from 6 to be uncatchable, so a draw against Bournemouth still keeps it in their own hands, a loss and it's in ours)
Chelsea to lose or draw to Forest

We only need one of those to go our way, and though on paper, the Champions League chasers will be hot favourites in every game, you never know?  Let's just make sure we win, and then hope one of the other teams can do us a favour!

"I'm a believer mate."
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeS on May 17, 2025, 09:32:06 AM
That last minute goal at Citeh is now looking season defining

It wasn’t the Man City goal for me.

It was the poor game management at the end of the Bournemouth home game, when we had the thing won and instead of managing the game we just kept booting the ball up the pitch and giving away cheap free kicks and chances till they scored.

That was gutting. But it was also ages ago. Every single thing that has happened in every match played in the world since would be different if that moment had been different. So it’s a bit too remote to take the blame for me.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 17, 2025, 09:37:29 AM
The big 'what if' for me is 'what if Liverpool hadn't been on the beach when they played Chelsea.

Same here.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeS on May 17, 2025, 09:38:06 AM
The big 'what if' for me is 'what if Liverpool hadn't been on the beach when they played Chelsea.

Same here.

That’s more like it
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 17, 2025, 09:38:40 AM
We are two points behind at the minute, so we could surpass it if we beat Man U.

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with hitting 69 points and not getting Champions League because other teams have done better, it’s a respectable tally that would have got it in many seasons.

I just really regret a silly goal that we brought on ourselves knowing how valuable those two points would be now.

Weirdly only 50/50 the last 10 seasons. One time we would have been 7th, another time 3rd.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Tom_Mc9? on May 17, 2025, 09:42:08 AM
35:65.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ez on May 17, 2025, 09:42:39 AM
We can beat last season's points total but finish lower. No lower than 5th we hope.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 17, 2025, 09:50:26 AM
The big 'what if' for me is 'what if Liverpool hadn't been on the beach when they played Chelsea.

It won'r matter when they lose to Forest next week.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 17, 2025, 09:52:39 AM
Before last night, we were 8/5 to qualify for the CL (4/1 after the Citeh loss). We're now 5/6 on.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on May 17, 2025, 09:57:41 AM
Before last night, we were 8/5 to qualify for the CL (4/1 after the Citeh loss). We're now 5/6 on.

What are the other teams around us? Not into gambling, so have no idea.  I assume Forest are considered a long-shot, and all the other teams are considered a better chance than us?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 17, 2025, 10:03:11 AM
I’ll struggle to forgive Liverpool for their performance at Stamford Bridge.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 17, 2025, 10:16:30 AM
Before last night, we were 8/5 to qualify for the CL (4/1 after the Citeh loss). We're now 5/6 on.

What are the other teams around us? Not into gambling, so have no idea.  I assume Forest are considered a long-shot, and all the other teams are considered a better chance than us?

Newcastle 1/18 so 96%
Man City 1/12. 92%
Chelsea 4/9 55%
Us 11/10 47%
Forest 8/1 12%

I’d say that was about right. Which bookies are saying we are odds on ? Paddy power? Always pays to shop around.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: olaftab on May 17, 2025, 10:41:10 AM
Forest have turned into circa 2009 Villa.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on May 17, 2025, 11:15:58 AM
Before last night, we were 8/5 to qualify for the CL (4/1 after the Citeh loss). We're now 5/6 on.

What are the other teams around us? Not into gambling, so have no idea.  I assume Forest are considered a long-shot, and all the other teams are considered a better chance than us?

Newcastle 1/18 so 96%
Man City 1/12. 92%
Chelsea 4/9 55%
Us 11/10 47%
Forest 8/1 12%

I’d say that was about right. Which bookies are saying we are odds on ? Paddy power? Always pays to shop around.


Yeah, that feels about right.  I would imagine Forest's odds will go up a bit, and ours and Chelsea down a bit, if they beat West Ham.  We really need them to get a draw, in an ideal world.  That would leave them needing to beat Chelsea on the last day to go above us and have Champions League still a possibility.

If they lose to West Ham, I fear they'll be a walkover for Chelsea on the last day, knowing they can't move up or down regardless of the result.

If Chelsea get to play Liverpool AND Forest in the last couple of games, while both of those teams are on the beach, they would be extremely lucky.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on May 17, 2025, 11:19:54 AM
Points gained over the teams around us in the last 10 games:

Forest - 9 points
Arsenal - 9 points
Chelsea - 4 points
Man City - 3 points
Newcastle - 2 points
Liverpool - 2 points

If this had been the first 10 games of the season, rather than the last, we'd be 2 points clear in mid November and dreaming of a title challenge.  Whatever happens next weekend, we HAVE to maintain this momentum into next season.  If we can, the Champions League place will take care of itself and we might even find ourselves dreaming a bit higher...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Richard on May 17, 2025, 12:30:09 PM
Before last night, we were 8/5 to qualify for the CL (4/1 after the Citeh loss). We're now 5/6 on.

What are the other teams around us? Not into gambling, so have no idea.  I assume Forest are considered a long-shot, and all the other teams are considered a better chance than us?

Newcastle 1/18 so 96%
Man City 1/12. 92%
Chelsea 4/9 55%
Us 11/10 47%
Forest 8/1 12%

I’d say that was about right. Which bookies are saying we are odds on ? Paddy power? Always pays to shop around.


Yeah, that feels about right.  I would imagine Forest's odds will go up a bit, and ours and Chelsea down a bit, if they beat West Ham.  We really need them to get a draw, in an ideal world.  That would leave them needing to beat Chelsea on the last day to go above us and have Champions League still a possibility.

If they lose to West Ham, I fear they'll be a walkover for Chelsea on the last day, knowing they can't move up or down regardless of the result.

If Chelsea get to play Liverpool AND Forest in the last couple of games, while both of those teams are on the beach, they would be extremely lucky.

No luckier than us getting Spurs and Man U to be fair! We will finish where we deserve to finish, whatever happens it's been another good season and while we have Unai we will always be a top 6 side IMO.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 17, 2025, 12:43:35 PM
Before last night, we were 8/5 to qualify for the CL (4/1 after the Citeh loss). We're now 5/6 on.

What are the other teams around us? Not into gambling, so have no idea.  I assume Forest are considered a long-shot, and all the other teams are considered a better chance than us?

The other teams (apart from Forest) are shorter odds but 5/6 probably indicates that we've roughly a 50:50 chance.

Bear in mind that last year some people were absolutely certain that Spurs would pip us to 4th (when they were 16/1).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 17, 2025, 12:45:34 PM
If the money wasn’t so significantly different I could accept Europa as a fair reflection on the season.
If I hadn’t seen such riches I could live with being poor.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Stinkin_Thinkin on May 17, 2025, 01:09:32 PM
europa and conf league are designed to knacker your squad so you can never dare to challenge domestically and join the big boys in the UCL. Chelsea have coped and will probably win the conf due to their massive squad but look at man utd and spurs whereabouts in the table, and west ham when they won it. Villa just about limped over the line last season. The only one worth entering is the champions league I'm sure emery knows it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: RamboandBruno on May 17, 2025, 01:19:53 PM
europa and conf league are designed to knacker your squad so you can never dare to challenge domestically and join the big boys in the UCL. Chelsea have coped and will probably win the conf due to their massive squad but look at man utd and spurs whereabouts in the table, and west ham when they won it. Villa just about limped over the line last season. The only one worth entering is the champions league I'm sure emery knows it.
Im sure he was thinking that when he was winning the Europa League, for the fourth time was it?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 17, 2025, 01:24:28 PM
Guessing our game will be on TV now.

I expect all four will be. And MOTD will do that league table changes jump around the matches as well on the evening.

Sky will pick the dead rubber at Anfield, the simpering, pandering twats.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 17, 2025, 01:44:57 PM
Chelsea fate in own hands & Villa hope - six teams in top-five hunt

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cz63p6dwl8wo
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on May 17, 2025, 01:49:50 PM
I guess we want Arsenal to batter the Jaudies tomorrow, Bournemouth to beat Man City on Tuesday.  And Forest to get something at West Ham so they're still fighting on the last day v Chelsea.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 17, 2025, 01:51:32 PM
Want Forest to lose. That opens up the possibility of us qualifying without winning at Man U. Pretty sure Forest will try against Chelsea regardless.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on May 17, 2025, 01:58:02 PM
I guess we want Arsenal to batter the Jaudies tomorrow, Bournemouth to beat Man City on Tuesday.  And Forest to get something at West Ham so they're still fighting on the last day v Chelsea.

That would be a good weekend.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Matt C on May 17, 2025, 02:02:41 PM
Odds are still against us but we’ve done well to take it to the last game - not something I thought would be remotely possible after that night at Selhurst Park.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 17, 2025, 02:05:15 PM
Chelsea with 1 away win since December? I backed us to get there, nothing has changed my mind.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: RamboandBruno on May 17, 2025, 02:09:34 PM
I think we’ll draw at Man Utd, given we virtually never win there, but that will end up being enough. May change my mind if Forest win tomorrow.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on May 17, 2025, 02:17:17 PM
I think we’ll draw at Man Utd, given we virtually never win there, but that will end up being enough. May change my mind if Forest win tomorrow.

Like promotion in '88, we go there thinking we need to win and favours and it turns out a point was enough.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chris_Jephcott on May 17, 2025, 06:47:37 PM
I have to say that I fancy Bournemouth to get a result against Man City and it all comes down to us having to bear Man Utd to keep Man City out of the CL.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: nigel on May 17, 2025, 06:48:40 PM
What effect does Palace winning have?
Is it top 5 CL, 6th Europa and 7th Conference?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 17, 2025, 06:48:57 PM
Yep.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: nigel on May 17, 2025, 06:49:37 PM
Yep.

👍
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 17, 2025, 06:59:31 PM
Hopefully this sends Citeh on a mini spiral for the last two games and they lose at least one.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 17, 2025, 07:10:35 PM
Still lots of possibilities.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Neal and Winton on May 17, 2025, 07:34:58 PM
Has I see it the only way we will be in conference league is if we lose to Man Utd and Forest beat West Ham and draw with Chelsea so Chelsea will be in champions league and if they win the conference league that europa league place would be lost to English clubs.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on May 17, 2025, 07:39:26 PM
What effect does Palace winning have?
Is it top 5 CL, 6th Europa and 7th Conference?


If Chelsea finish 6th or 7th and win the Conference League, 8th place can still get Europa so the clubs fighting for 8th spot still have something to play for.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: trinityoap on May 17, 2025, 08:43:15 PM
My brain hurts.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Nunkin1965 on May 17, 2025, 08:46:01 PM
My brain hurts.
I'll just be happy to work it out after Sunday!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 17, 2025, 10:08:29 PM
My brain hurts.

Like a warehouse ?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 17, 2025, 10:09:51 PM
My brain hurts.

Like a warehouse ?

Give it five years, it’ll all be over.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 17, 2025, 11:27:50 PM
Yeah, Unai gone, we'll still be junkies like Major fucking Tom while our Villa dreams go from ashes to ashes.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 18, 2025, 09:58:58 AM
After Friday's games concluded, we're down to only 6,561 permutations for the Muskahound Supercomputer to ponder.

This leaves the following percentages of all scenarios for our finishing place:

2nd   0%
3rd    8.5%
4th    18.5%
5th    25.1%
6th    38.0%
7th    9.9%

So 52.1% of all permutations see us get top 5, versus 47.9% missing out. Still a coin toss, but up from the 33% before kick-off.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on May 18, 2025, 10:16:33 AM
I’d say 50/50 is about right.   Must beat Man Utd though, as losing or drawing there being the reason we didn’t qualify would be incredibly frustrating. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on May 18, 2025, 10:24:58 AM
A few weeks ago I'm sure they said we had a 6% chance of making CL. Now it's more than 50/50. What a job Unai and the boys have done.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 18, 2025, 10:42:37 AM
Yep, incredible achievement. Might not be as high as 52.1% when we kick off on Sunday, but either way.

Arsenal can't be losing to Newcastle today. Any other result means they have to beat Everton. If they do lose, I think they're both gone. Southampton beating Arsenal seems unlikely, despite them being absolute fucking heroes last week.

Man City losing to Bournemouth is obviously the one, but a draw would be okay, as it opens up a draw against Fulham being enough.

I hope Forest win, so they go after Chelsea all guns blazing. It does rule out a draw being enough on the final day (Chelsea loss and Forest too far away), but I'd rather the odds were increased in our favour above rather than below.

I'd take the Newcastle loss, Man City draw and Forest win right now. We'd start in sixth and it'd be stressful as fuck with one point separating the five of us, but any of the three above drop any points and the win would do it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on May 18, 2025, 10:50:03 AM
I agree with that. Though if Forest do lose today, it does at least guarantee us a place in the Europa League, when even that did not seem awfully likely just a few weeks ago.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on May 18, 2025, 10:51:14 AM
Yep, incredible achievement. Might not be as high as 52.1% when we kick off on Sunday, but either way.

Arsenal can't be losing to Newcastle today. Any other result means they have to beat Everton. If they do lose, I think they're both gone. Southampton beating Arsenal seems unlikely, despite them being absolute fucking heroes last week.

Man City losing to Bournemouth is obviously the one, but a draw would be okay, as it opens up a draw against Fulham being enough.

I hope Forest win, so they go after Chelsea all guns blazing. It does rule out a draw being enough on the final day (Chelsea loss and Forest too far away), but I'd rather the odds were increased in our favour above rather than below.

I'd take the Newcastle loss, Man City draw and Forest win right now. We'd start in sixth and it'd be stressful as fuck with one point separating the five of us, but any of the three above drop any points and the win would do it.
I agree with all the above.  I just can’t see Man City dropping points - particularly after losing yesterday.   I also hope Man Utd win the europa league as they will be well and truly in there flip flops.  Plus can’t have spurs winning.   My view all along has been if we win all our games and don’t qualify so be it
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Pete3206 on May 18, 2025, 10:59:13 AM
Man City will do Bournemouth by at least 4 goals.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on May 18, 2025, 11:00:43 AM
Man City will do Bournemouth by at least 4 goals.

No, I don't think they've got that in them, but they'll spunk a late win.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 18, 2025, 11:09:43 AM
Man City will do Bournemouth by at least 4 goals.

No, I don't think they've got that in them, but they'll spunk a late win.

The Bournemouth keeper will be sent off for handling the ball just inside his area.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 18, 2025, 11:14:45 AM
After Friday's games concluded, we're down to only 6,561 permutations for the Muskahound Supercomputer to ponder.

This leaves the following percentages of all scenarios for our finishing place:

2nd   0%
3rd    8.5%
4th    18.5%
5th    25.1%
6th    38.0%
7th    9.9%

So 52.1% of all permutations see us get top 5, versus 47.9% missing out. Still a coin toss, but up from the 33% before kick-off.

This is assuming all results have an equal possibility, not factoring in likelihood of say Newcastle beating Everton.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TaxDodger on May 18, 2025, 11:16:42 AM
I’m very conflicted on whether I want Forest to win today or not.

I was edging towards wanting them to win, but now I’m picturing us narrowly winning at Old Trafford in the 88th minute, with Forest Chelsea level and Forest knowing only a win would get them Champions League if Man United could equalise, so throw everyone up front and Chelsea break away and score.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 18, 2025, 11:20:18 AM
The thing is, will Forest play better with no pressure on them and Chelsea under pressure? Or will Forest be on the beach?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Pete3206 on May 18, 2025, 11:23:55 AM
I will settle for a win at Mould Trafford. That would be something to celebrate all on it's own.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 18, 2025, 11:29:58 AM
If Man U win the cup and get Champions League and Man City lose to Bournemouth, I bet a lot of the crowd would be happy to lose to us and we both get CL over their bitter rivals.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 18, 2025, 11:31:34 AM
The thing is, will Forest play better with no pressure on them and Chelsea under pressure? Or will Forest be on the beach?
i doubt they will want to finish on a whimper in front of their own fans and with the context of what happened in their previous home game i think they will be up for it
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 18, 2025, 11:38:00 AM
I will settle for a win at Mould Trafford. That would be something to celebrate all on it's own.

Indeed, if we do that and the cards don’t land in our favour then so be it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ozzjim on May 18, 2025, 11:44:46 AM
If Man U win the cup and get Champions League and Man City lose to Bournemouth, I bet a lot of the crowd would be happy to lose to us and we both get CL over their bitter rivals.

I reckon they'd lie down and have their tummies very much tickled
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on May 18, 2025, 12:25:47 PM
We'll end up 6th, reshape our squad as a result, then they'll apply the ban to City at the end of the summer and we'll be in the Champions League with a weakened squad.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Steve67 on May 18, 2025, 01:05:45 PM
Hoping for Forest to lose today and win next week.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 18, 2025, 01:07:02 PM
Hoping for Forest to win today and win (or draw) next week
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Steve67 on May 18, 2025, 01:09:57 PM
Hoping for Forest to win today and win (or draw) next week

Which will put them back above us if we don't get something from the last game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 18, 2025, 01:11:15 PM
Hoping for Forest to win today and win (or draw) next week

Which will put them back above us if we don't get something from the last game.

Which won't matter when we win at Old Trafford.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 01:11:24 PM
Want Forest to lose, we need as many scenarios in our favour as possible in play in the last week. Forest defeat today opens up the chance of finishing top five with a draw next week. A Forest win also means we still haven't even secured Europa League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 18, 2025, 01:23:58 PM
Forest winning today makes them getting a positive result more likely next week. I hope they beat West Ham, don't lose to Chelsea, we'll take care of the rest.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 18, 2025, 01:24:43 PM
Forest winning today makes them getting a positive result more likely next week. I hope they beat West Ham, don't lose to Chelsea, we'll take care of the rest.

Exactly.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 18, 2025, 01:32:28 PM
Yup I want Forest winning today.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 18, 2025, 01:36:13 PM
Want Forest to lose, we need as many scenarios in our favour as possible in play in the last week. Forest defeat today opens up the chance of finishing top five with a draw next week. A Forest win also means we still haven't even secured Europa League.
Yeah agree , I'd like Forest out of the equation today. They will stay play hard last day at home .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 18, 2025, 01:37:52 PM
They'll play even harder if they have something on the line.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on May 18, 2025, 01:45:19 PM
Forest winning today makes them getting a positive result more likely next week. I hope they beat West Ham, don't lose to Chelsea, we'll take care of the rest.

Exactly.
Agree totally. I want Forest to have something to play for on the last day of the season. It might make no difference, but I’m not willing to take that chance
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 18, 2025, 01:45:59 PM
Don't be cucks about it. Forest win please.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 01:46:53 PM
Yeah, cos we always beat Man U... come on you Hammers. Conference League would be a massive let down from here.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 01:48:54 PM
Forest winning today makes them getting a positive result more likely next week. I hope they beat West Ham, don't lose to Chelsea, we'll take care of the rest.

Exactly.
Agree totally. I want Forest to have something to play for on the last day of the season. It might make no difference, but I’m not willing to take that chance

Forest had something to play for last four games but didn't win any of them. With Bournemouth and Fulham now on the beach when they play Man City and our record of never beating Man U, top five has probably gone. We need to secure top six and a Europa League spot. That happens today if Forest lose.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 18, 2025, 01:48:54 PM
Weird behaviour. We need to beat Man United, one of the worst sides in the league, likely after they've won a trophy and more time on the ale than the training pitch. If we're not looking after that, forget it.

If Chelsea beat Forest, then it doesn't matter what we do. Why on earth would you want a Forest side to lose even more confidence and have absolutely nothing to play for?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 18, 2025, 01:55:39 PM
Weird behaviour. We need to beat Man United, one of the worst sides in the league, likely after they've won a trophy and more time on the ale than the training pitch. If we're not looking after that, forget it.

If Chelsea beat Forest, then it doesn't matter what we do. Why on earth would you want a Forest side to lose even more confidence and have absolutely nothing to play for?

Agreed- I understand we have a shite record against Manure, but preferring to weaken our chances of fifth to protect sixth is odd.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 18, 2025, 01:57:08 PM
And saying 5th has gone is absolute horseshit as well.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 01:59:04 PM
Weird behaviour. We need to beat Man United, one of the worst sides in the league, likely after they've won a trophy and more time on the ale than the training pitch. If we're not looking after that, forget it.

If Chelsea beat Forest, then it doesn't matter what we do. Why on earth would you want a Forest side to lose even more confidence and have absolutely nothing to play for?

Agreed- I understand we have a shite record against Manure, but preferring to weaken our chances of fifth to protect sixth is odd.

It doesn't weaken our chance of fifth. We can still finish fifth with a draw if Forest lose today. The argument that Forest will be better if they have something to play for is undermined by their current shite form when having something to play for. Having guaranteed group stage football would be nice, too.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 18, 2025, 02:00:45 PM
It could be argued it's weird wanting a team to be in a position to catch us on the basis it means they'll play better next week, of which there is no guarantee.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 18, 2025, 02:01:05 PM
You don't make any sense.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: JUAN PABLO on May 18, 2025, 02:01:24 PM
Forest to win please.  They need to be up for the last game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 02:02:09 PM
How's that gone for them in their last four games? Maybe they'll play better if the pressure is off.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TaxDodger on May 18, 2025, 02:09:04 PM
I don’t know what I want. Why can’t I know what I want?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 18, 2025, 02:13:44 PM
Put it this way, I would rather the certainty of Europa League football than some speculative psychology about marginally increasing our chances of Champions League football.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: TaxDodger on May 18, 2025, 02:13:58 PM
Ideal scenario - Forest draw and Man City lose to Bournemouth. Then Forest stand a slight chance of getting in the top 5 by beating Chelsea and so are massively up for it on the last day, and our possibility of getting top 5 with a draw at Old Trafford remains open.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 02:14:53 PM
Put it this way, I would rather the certainty of Europa League football than some speculative psychology about marginally increasing our chances of Champions League football.

Yep, and I'm not convinced a Forest win boosts our chances of top five anyway, bearing in mind it removes the possibility of qualifying with a draw.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 18, 2025, 02:19:23 PM
Put it this way, I would rather the certainty of Europa League football than some speculative psychology about marginally increasing our chances of Champions League football.

It’s not speculative psychology really is it? If a team knows that by beating a team they’ll finish above them and end up in a higher value European competition it stands to reason they’ll go for it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on May 18, 2025, 02:19:59 PM
Ok - can we all at least agree that Newcastle losing against Arsenal is better?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 18, 2025, 02:25:58 PM
Forest beat West Ham
Arsenal beat Newcastle
Bournemouth beat Man City
Forest draw/beat Chelsea*
Everton beat Newcastle
Fulham draw/beat Man City

We beat Man United*

Those are the most favourable results, but only a Villa win plus a Forest win/draw against Chelsea is needed.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on May 18, 2025, 02:43:09 PM
There's some fear about going to United because of our psychological scars of playing there but I saw something earlier that said United's form under Amorim is about the same as Jewell's as Derby manager when they set the record for lowest number of points.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chip Butty 111 on May 18, 2025, 02:47:58 PM
If Newcastle lose later on, all of this will be hanging in the balance until the final minutes next Sunday afternoon, it will be mental carnage..
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 02:47:59 PM
There's some fear about going to United because of our psychological scars of playing there but I saw something earlier that said United's form under Amorim is about the same as Jewell's as Derby manager when they set the record for lowest number of points.

About the same as earlier in the season when we didn't beat them, then.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 18, 2025, 02:50:42 PM
Forest beat West Ham
Arsenal beat Newcastle
Bournemouth beat Man City
Forest draw/beat Chelsea*
Everton beat Newcastle
Fulham draw/beat Man City

We beat Man United*

Those are the most favourable results, but only a Villa win plus a Forest win/draw against Chelsea is needed.

First one is irrelevant to the rest
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 18, 2025, 02:51:58 PM
Put it this way, I would rather the certainty of Europa League football than some speculative psychology about marginally increasing our chances of Champions League football.

It’s not speculative psychology really is it? If a team knows that by beating a team they’ll finish above them and end up in a higher value European competition it stands to reason they’ll go for it.

It is completely speculative, you're guessing that a game next week is going to be affected by something that happens today.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 18, 2025, 02:53:03 PM
ManU didn't go utterly shit until December. before then they'd only lost 4. Then the Amorim effect kicked in.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 18, 2025, 02:53:22 PM
Ok - can we all at least agree that Newcastle losing against Arsenal is better?

A draw would be OK too. Newcastle win bad because Arsenal won't lose to Southampton. Although that is just speculation.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 02:55:29 PM
Newcastle defeat better than draw as opens up the admittedly slim chance of us finishing above them with a draw. Pretty sure they'll hammer Everton anyway so won't make much difference.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 18, 2025, 02:58:52 PM
We could head into the final day with Newcastle, Chelsea, MC and us on 66pts, and Forest on 65. Which is a bonkers scenario.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Chip Butty 111 on May 18, 2025, 03:04:53 PM
Anything can happen next week, when the first team going for CL scores, the vibe in the other grounds changes completely. We need Martinez to have a blinder and Rogers to drive us forward, and we need some luck for once up there.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 18, 2025, 03:29:18 PM
It could be argued it's weird wanting a team to be in a position to catch us on the basis it means they'll play better next week, of which there is no guarantee.
It's highly weird .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 18, 2025, 03:40:26 PM
So Forest will be up for it next week.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 03:48:37 PM
So a better chance of us finishing seventh. Great.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 18, 2025, 03:54:22 PM
Put it this way, I would rather the certainty of Europa League football than some speculative psychology about marginally increasing our chances of Champions League football.

It’s not speculative psychology really is it? If a team knows that by beating a team they’ll finish above them and end up in a higher value European competition it stands to reason they’ll go for it.

It is completely speculative, you're guessing that a game next week is going to be affected by something that happens today.

Confidence/form/momentum in sport is important.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: The Man With A Stick on May 18, 2025, 04:01:13 PM
I'm not going to watch next week's game. 

Got total confidence in the Villa to get the job done but the thought of those spawny shower of bastards getting a dodgy penalty or whatever and that costing us a top 5 finish just makes me feel sick thinking about it.  Going to go on a nice long walk instead.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 18, 2025, 04:10:25 PM
I don’t know what I want. Why can’t I know what I want?

How will you know if he really loves you?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 18, 2025, 04:22:15 PM
I'm not going to watch next week's game. 

Got total confidence in the Villa to get the job done but the thought of those spawny shower of bastards getting a dodgy penalty or whatever and that costing us a top 5 finish just makes me feel sick thinking about it.  Going to go on a nice long walk instead.

Same, the same route I did when we got the draw at West Ham to stay up in the Covid season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on May 18, 2025, 04:24:19 PM
I'm not going to watch next week's game. 

Got total confidence in the Villa to get the job done but the thought of those spawny shower of bastards getting a dodgy penalty or whatever and that costing us a top 5 finish just makes me feel sick thinking about it.  Going to go on a nice long walk instead.

Same, the same route I did when we got the draw at West Ham to stay up in the Covid season.

Me too, I have no intention whatsoever of watching or listening to any football.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: joe_c on May 18, 2025, 04:25:27 PM
Anything can happen next week, when the first team going for CL scores, the vibe in the other grounds changes completely. We need Martinez to have a blinder and Rogers to drive us forward, and we need some luck for once up there.

I'd rather Martinez spent the game leaning against the post smoking cigarettes to be honest.

If we qualify, it will mean at least one of Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea miss out. The slim possibility of no London clubs participating is a genuinely delightful prospect.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 18, 2025, 04:27:37 PM
Yeah, Martínez needing to have a blinder? Yanited are shite, they won't be bombarding our goal and Dibu can see-out his Villa career quietly...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 18, 2025, 04:31:30 PM
So a better chance of us finishing seventh. Great.

If we finish 7th it’s entirely on us. I prefer to look at as a better chance of being 5th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: curiousorange on May 18, 2025, 04:31:58 PM
I'm with The Weakest Link here: would much prefer Europa to be banked. Then we could worry about Sunday next Sunday.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 04:34:49 PM
So a better chance of us finishing seventh. Great.

If we finish 7th it’s entirely on us. I prefer to look at as a better chance of being 5th.

I don't think it is a better chance of finishing fifth, as there is now no chance of us finishing fifth if we draw, unless Man City and/or Newcastle collapse. Ah well, it's happened now. Hopefully everyone else is right and I'm wrong. 🙂
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 18, 2025, 04:35:41 PM
The gap between champions league and Europa is so much bigger than between europa and conference. So I’d risk euopa to have better shot at the big one. As it stands I think we should just be focussing on winning, particularly at a ground where our record is so poor.
I assume we want a Man Utd win Wednesday so they are on the piss when we rock up on the Sunday?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 04:36:16 PM
I want a Tottenham win so Man U are playing to get the manager sacked on Sunday.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 04:37:08 PM
Plus I want us to have an undeniably better season than Man U for the first time in over forty years.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 18, 2025, 04:37:14 PM
I want a Tottenham win so Man U are playing to get the manager sacked on Sunday.

What’s a Tottenham win?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on May 18, 2025, 05:01:59 PM
Whichever way you cut it, we have to win next week and hope Chelsea don’t.
Then it’s done and dusted.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 18, 2025, 05:05:03 PM
Plus I want us to have an undeniably better season than Man U for the first time in over forty years.

I'm going to stick with prioritising the thing that's better for Villa both this season and next, which is a Man Utd win.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 05:06:56 PM
I disagree. Want Man U playing to get the manager sacked next week.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on May 18, 2025, 05:07:33 PM
After we lost at Cheaty City we were always going to have to win all 4 to get Champions League and hope a few results went our way. We’ve got a 50/50 chance and considering how this season has panned out, I’m happy with that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 18, 2025, 05:12:19 PM
So a better chance of us finishing seventh. Great.

Yeah, was probably leaning towards a Forest win over the past few days, but now they have actually won I'm not so sure I was right to as it increases the chances of finishing. 7th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: The Edge on May 18, 2025, 05:14:45 PM
I'm not going to watch next week's game. 

Got total confidence in the Villa to get the job done but the thought of those spawny shower of bastards getting a dodgy penalty or whatever and that costing us a top 5 finish just makes me feel sick thinking about it.  Going to go on a nice long walk instead.
Yeah I think I might sort my sock drawer out
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 18, 2025, 05:16:45 PM
I'm not going to watch next week's game. 

Got total confidence in the Villa to get the job done but the thought of those spawny shower of bastards getting a dodgy penalty or whatever and that costing us a top 5 finish just makes me feel sick thinking about it.  Going to go on a nice long walk instead.
Yeah I think I might sort my sock drawer out

You can store it all on USB drives, these days.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 18, 2025, 05:23:44 PM
I disagree. Want Man U playing to get the manager sacked next week.

There is absolutely no chance the manager is getting sacked at the end of this season. He’ll walk before he’s sacked.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 05:36:32 PM
Nobody ever walks. He'd be losing about twenty million quid.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 18, 2025, 05:37:20 PM
Nobody ever walks. He'd be losing about twenty million quid.

Pantera did.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 05:44:15 PM
What did you say?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 18, 2025, 05:52:57 PM
Nobody ever walks. He'd be losing about twenty million quid.

They may be bad next week but it won't be because they're deliberately playing badly trying to get Amorim sacked, it's because they're not very good.

Then again none of it matters, given you've convinced yourself we're not going to win whatever happens.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 05:54:49 PM
It's for the best. Optimism leads to disappointment.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: wince on May 18, 2025, 05:55:03 PM
I still reckon we will do it. It is at least showing the world what this team is capable of. And next season is looking positive
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 18, 2025, 05:57:22 PM
It's for the best. Optimism leads to disappointment.

Don't stress out about all these permutations then. None of them really matter to us anymore.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 05:59:09 PM
They do because we can still finish seventh, now...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeS on May 18, 2025, 06:03:15 PM
They do because we can still finish seventh, now...

5th is the prize we’ve been aiming for. Our chances of finishing there just improved. That’s what matters to me.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 06:03:53 PM
I've just seen too many bad things happen in matches featuring Villa and the red franchise from Manchester and am trying to prepare myself psychologically for the worst. Sorry if my less than cheery disposition is pissing people off.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 06:06:10 PM
They do because we can still finish seventh, now...

5th is the prize we’ve been aiming for. Our chances of finishing there just improved. That’s what matters to me.

I disagree. This morning we could theoretically finish above both Chelsea and Forest with a draw, that is no longer possible. I understand the idea of Forest playing better when they have "something to play for" but don't feel that offsets the benefit of being able to finish above both with a draw, given that we've won at Old Trafford fewer times than the UK has won Eurovision since the Second World War.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: darren woolley on May 18, 2025, 06:06:49 PM
If Arsenal beat Newcastle and they are winning 1-0 that would be brilliant for us Newcastle play Everton next week.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 06:08:37 PM
If Arsenal beat Newcastle and they are winning 1-0 that would be brilliant for us Newcastle play Everton next week.

Yep, the more options in play for us, the better.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 18, 2025, 06:09:38 PM
I'm with you all the way cd. Crazy logic to say that one of our direct rivals beating a team irrelevant to us improves our chances of finishing 5th. It's like a mass delusion based on football clichés.

However, I am more confident of us doing our bit next week.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeS on May 18, 2025, 06:14:40 PM
They do because we can still finish seventh, now...

5th is the prize we’ve been aiming for. Our chances of finishing there just improved. That’s what matters to me.

I disagree. This morning we could theoretically finish above both Chelsea and Forest with a draw, that is no longer possible. I understand the idea of Forest playing better when they have "something to play for" but don't feel that offsets the benefit of being able to finish above both with a draw, given that we've won at Old Trafford fewer times than the UK has won Eurovision since the Second World War.

We will beat Man U. They are total shit. We are excellent and on one hell of a run
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: alan_clarke on May 18, 2025, 06:14:57 PM
I'm with you all the way cd. Crazy logic to say that one of our direct rivals beating a team irrelevant to us improves our chances of finishing 5th. It's like a mass delusion based on football clichés.

However, I am more confident of us doing our bit next week.

It does increase our chances of finishing 5th though. Equally it increases our chances of 7th at the same time.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on May 18, 2025, 06:17:06 PM
I'd definitely take an increased risk of finishing 7th for an increased chance of finishing 5th. The reward massively outweighs the risk.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 18, 2025, 06:17:14 PM
I'm with you all the way cd. Crazy logic to say that one of our direct rivals beating a team irrelevant to us improves our chances of finishing 5th. It's like a mass delusion based on football clichés.

However, I am more confident of us doing our bit next week.

It does increase our chances of finishing 5th though. Equally it increases our chances of 7th at the same time.

How?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 18, 2025, 06:17:58 PM
I'm with you all the way cd. Crazy logic to say that one of our direct rivals beating a team irrelevant to us improves our chances of finishing 5th. It's like a mass delusion based on football clichés.

However, I am more confident of us doing our bit next week.

It does increase our chances of finishing 5th though. Equally it increases our chances of 7th at the same time.

How?

Because Forest will actually put a shift in now against a side with 1 away win this year.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 18, 2025, 06:19:02 PM
I'm with you all the way cd. Crazy logic to say that one of our direct rivals beating a team irrelevant to us improves our chances of finishing 5th. It's like a mass delusion based on football clichés.

However, I am more confident of us doing our bit next week.

It does increase our chances of finishing 5th though. Equally it increases our chances of 7th at the same time.

How?

Because Forest will actually put a shift in now against a side with 1 away win this year.

How do you know they wouldn't if they'd lost today?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: john2710 on May 18, 2025, 06:19:14 PM
I didn't think we'd beat Brentford, Brighton or Bournemouth but we did. And I don't think we'll beat Man U, because we never do.

But if we do, we'd be very unlucky not to qualify for the Champions League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 18, 2025, 06:19:54 PM
Chelsea being crap away remains the same regardless of Forest's result today BTW
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 18, 2025, 06:21:28 PM
I'm with you all the way cd. Crazy logic to say that one of our direct rivals beating a team irrelevant to us improves our chances of finishing 5th. It's like a mass delusion based on football clichés.

However, I am more confident of us doing our bit next week.

It does increase our chances of finishing 5th though. Equally it increases our chances of 7th at the same time.

How?

Because Forest will actually put a shift in now against a side with 1 away win this year.

How do you know they wouldn't if they'd lost today?

Why on Earth would you expect a side that cannot finish any higher or lower, whose form has dropped off, having just lost to a rank West Ham side to match the sort of intensity they will now have for a potential Champions League spot.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 18, 2025, 06:22:53 PM
I've just seen too many bad things happen in matches featuring Villa and the red franchise from Manchester and am trying to prepare myself psychologically for the worst. Sorry if my less than cheery disposition is pissing people off.

I appreciate that it's your coping mechanism and thinking we might not finish in the top five is perfectly reasonable. I haven't thought we'll finish in the top five for ages, and right now if I had to bet one way or the other I'd still go with not.

It's just the way you're treating anyone who puts the chance of this Villa (one league defeat since February) beating this Man Utd (one league win since February) at higher than zero percent, like you're the only person who is familiar with our record against them and the rest of us are a bunch of naive simpletons that's starting to get a bit tedious.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 18, 2025, 06:25:27 PM
I'm with you all the way cd. Crazy logic to say that one of our direct rivals beating a team irrelevant to us improves our chances of finishing 5th. It's like a mass delusion based on football clichés.

However, I am more confident of us doing our bit next week.

It does increase our chances of finishing 5th though. Equally it increases our chances of 7th at the same time.

How?

Because Forest will actually put a shift in now against a side with 1 away win this year.

How do you know they wouldn't if they'd lost today?

Why on Earth would you expect a side that cannot finish any higher or lower, whose form has dropped off, having just lost to a rank West Ham side to match the sort of intensity they will now have for a potential Champions League spot.

Maybe the pressure of being so close to the prize will see them freeze on the big occasion? Or lose their heads?

I understand the theory that a team with something to play for will be more motivated but making a statement of fact that we now have a better chance of qualifying is completely untrue.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: alan_clarke on May 18, 2025, 06:27:27 PM
Statistically you’re right of course. But we all know psychology plays a huge part
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 18, 2025, 06:28:53 PM
God bless Arsenal anyway.

Although I worry that Newvastle will now be more motivated next week and therefore guaranteed to win. Or they'll be so dejected that they're bound to lose. I forget which undeniable truism applies in this case.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 18, 2025, 06:29:13 PM
Bizarre.

I'm glad we're playing Man United because (i) they have nothing to play for and also the added bonus (ii) they're one of the worst sides in the league. The idea of going somewhere where they're motivated for an objective would make it many levels harder. That's football since day dot. Id much rather be going to Old Trafford than the City Ground.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on May 18, 2025, 06:30:17 PM
So if Everton won at Newcastle, a draw would get us into the Champion's League?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 18, 2025, 06:30:18 PM
Good stuff - we most likely need to win, but if we do and any of the following happens we’re top 5:

Citeh fail to take at least 4 points from their last two games
Chelsea fail to win
Newcastle fail to win
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: curiousorange on May 18, 2025, 06:30:18 PM
It's a shame Everton's last home game was today. If they were facing Bonesaw at Goodison I would have them down for the win without a second's hesitation.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 06:30:50 PM
I've just seen too many bad things happen in matches featuring Villa and the red franchise from Manchester and am trying to prepare myself psychologically for the worst. Sorry if my less than cheery disposition is pissing people off.

I appreciate that it's your coping mechanism and thinking we might not finish in the top five is perfectly reasonable. I haven't thought we'll finish in the top five for ages, and right now if I had to bet one way or the other I'd still go with not.

It's just the way you're treating anyone who puts the chance of this Villa (one league defeat since February) beating this Man Utd (one league win since February) at higher than zero percent, like you're the only person who is familiar with our record against them and the rest of us are a bunch of naive simpletons that's starting to get a bit tedious.

Fair enough, I wasn't intending to come across like that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villan82 on May 18, 2025, 06:32:01 PM
It's great that Newcastle lost. It isn't beyond the realms of possibility that Everton get a result there on the last day.

If Bournemouth could somehow get a win at the Emptyhad, we have a great chance.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: alan_clarke on May 18, 2025, 06:32:24 PM
We’re going to finish 3rd anyway
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 18, 2025, 06:32:55 PM
So if Everton won at Newcastle, a draw would get us into the Champion's League?

Yes I think that's right
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 06:36:01 PM
Good stuff - we need to win, but if we do and any of the following happens we’re top 5:

Citeh fail to take at least 4 points from their last two games
Chelsea fail to win
Newcastle fail to win

We don't necessarily need to win. We could theoretically lose and qualify (at least until Tuesday).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: joe_c on May 18, 2025, 06:38:44 PM
Anything can happen next week, when the first team going for CL scores, the vibe in the other grounds changes completely. We need Martinez to have a blinder and Rogers to drive us forward, and we need some luck for once up there.

I'd rather Martinez spent the game leaning against the post smoking cigarettes to be honest.

If we qualify, it will mean at least one of Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea miss out. The slim possibility of no London clubs participating is a genuinely delightful prospect.

(https://i.ibb.co/5grHF6ZQ/20250518-183518.jpg) (https://ibb.co/4n8rd7kb)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 06:40:00 PM
VILLA WIN
Qualify if any of the following happen:
Chelsea fail to beat Forest (a)
Newcastle fail to beat Everton (h)
Man City lose either of their remaining games, or draw both - Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)

VILLA DRAW
Qualify if either of the following happen:
Newcastle lose to Everton
Man City take a maximum of one point from their remaining games

VILLA LOSE
Qualify if both of the following happen:
Chelsea beat Forest
Man City lose both their remaining games
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 18, 2025, 06:41:25 PM
Good stuff - we need to win, but if we do and any of the following happens we’re top 5:

Citeh fail to take at least 4 points from their last two games
Chelsea fail to win
Newcastle fail to win

We don't necessarily need to win. We could theoretically lose and qualify (at least until Tuesday).

Yeah I’ve just tweaked the post, I mean in all likelihood we need to win.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on May 18, 2025, 06:41:43 PM
Just beat the Mancs, I'm pretty sure that will be good enough, and at the very worst it guarantees us a top six spot and the Europa League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 06:41:56 PM
Good stuff - we need to win, but if we do and any of the following happens we’re top 5:

Citeh fail to take at least 4 points from their last two games
Chelsea fail to win
Newcastle fail to win

We don't necessarily need to win. We could theoretically lose and qualify (at least until Tuesday).

Yeah I’ve just tweaked the post, I mean in all likelihood we need to win.

👍🏼
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 18, 2025, 06:44:20 PM
We go in knowing a win plus any one of three teams losing, or one of at least two teams drawing, gets us back in the Champions League.

I’d have scoffed if you’d told me that when we were stuck in mid-table.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: aj2k77 on May 18, 2025, 07:08:14 PM
We have 3 defeats in 19 now and since the Palace away debacle only conceded 4 in 9 games. We are on a massive roll. It would go part way to easing our years of shit against ManUre if we were celebrating Champions League in their decrepit warehouse of prawns.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 18, 2025, 07:11:13 PM
We go in knowing a win plus any one of three teams losing, or one of at least two teams drawing, gets us back in the Champions League.

I’d have scoffed if you’d told me that when we were stuck in mid-table.

Yep, if do our bit and still don't get in then at least we know we've done all we can. I'll still be pissed off if it's some injury time goal elsewhere that fucks it all up, mind.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 18, 2025, 07:17:42 PM
I’m going to go ultra positive - I think the fates have aligned to give us this game against the team we have struggled against more than anyone, to give us a win that gets us back to the top competition in Europe. It’s the ultimate voodoo cleansing exercise.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 18, 2025, 07:18:41 PM
We're a really fucking good side. Chelsea, Newcastle or Forest would be nowhere near this position if they'd have fought as intensely as we had in the Champions League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 18, 2025, 07:19:57 PM
Issak has done his groin. Unclear if he's back for next week.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 18, 2025, 07:30:33 PM
We're a really fucking good side. Chelsea, Newcastle or Forest would be nowhere near this position if they'd have fought as intensely as we had in the Champions League.

Indeed and it makes me laugh when I’ve heard references to them being title contenders next year, and us not mentioned. We’re on the same points and they’ve had no Europe to deal with.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 18, 2025, 07:34:02 PM
Crap result at the Tax payer stadium for us , i'm now seeing Everton as the wildcard , unbeaten in 3 , won their last 2 , you never know .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 18, 2025, 07:35:28 PM
It’s only a crap result if we don’t do our bit, which if we don’t it’s unlikely to matter. It probably is pretty helpful in reality.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 18, 2025, 07:46:35 PM
I think I'd rather have Europa secured and then rely on Chelsea to F*** it up as they have an awful away record
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DB on May 18, 2025, 08:14:43 PM
Extra pressure on the Geordies after today, they will be nervous, Everton can just play relaxed.
NF winning gives them added reason to beat Chelsea next week.
Also, c’mon Bournemouth.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Archbishop Herbert Cockthrottle on May 18, 2025, 08:36:45 PM
I'm not saying I'm over confident but I've just booked a hotel room in Budapest for 30th May next year.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 18, 2025, 08:37:35 PM
We're a really fucking good side. Chelsea, Newcastle or Forest would be nowhere near this position if they'd have fought as intensely as we had in the Champions League.

Indeed and it makes me laugh when I’ve heard references to them being title contenders next year, and us not mentioned. We’re on the same points and they’ve had no Europe to deal with.

I don’t think Newcastle will be title contenders, I think Howe holds them back.

I like Howe, but I feel he’s their Dean Smith. He came in at a time when everything was shit and got them going in the right direction and hit a few milestones. He’s therefore built up a lot of goodwill.

But he’s reached his limit, and to really progress they need a step up in manager.

It makes my blood run cold to think what would have happened if they’d gotten their claws on Emery.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 18, 2025, 08:48:06 PM
I'm not saying I'm over confident but I've just booked a hotel room in Budapest for 30th May next year.
Cheers, Just reminded me to cancel my Munich hotel .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 18, 2025, 10:04:48 PM
Jordan Pickford, dyed-in-the-blood Mackem, to have the game of his life and keep out the fookin' Magpies at Sidjames. You'll do for me, bonnie lad.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on May 18, 2025, 11:31:21 PM
I’m going to go ultra positive - I think the fates have aligned to give us this game against the team we have struggled against more than anyone, to give us a win that gets us back to the top competition in Europe. It’s the ultimate voodoo cleansing exercise.

Imagine we Fergie Time it with a penalty that shouldn't have stood  8)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rooboy316 on May 18, 2025, 11:59:58 PM
I've just seen too many bad things happen in matches featuring Villa and the red franchise from Manchester and am trying to prepare myself psychologically for the worst. Sorry if my less than cheery disposition is pissing people off.
If the football gods read this thread, you are the only reason they won't want to smite us next week. Keep fighting the good fight.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 19, 2025, 12:04:38 AM
I've just seen too many bad things happen in matches featuring Villa and the red franchise from Manchester and am trying to prepare myself psychologically for the worst. Sorry if my less than cheery disposition is pissing people off.

If the football gods read this thread, you are the only reason they won't want to smite us next week. Keep fighting the good fight.

They clearly didn't read the Spurs pre-match thread.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rooboy316 on May 19, 2025, 01:48:16 AM
I've just seen too many bad things happen in matches featuring Villa and the red franchise from Manchester and am trying to prepare myself psychologically for the worst. Sorry if my less than cheery disposition is pissing people off.

If the football gods read this thread, you are the only reason they won't want to smite us next week. Keep fighting the good fight.

They clearly didn't read the Spurs pre-match thread.

They're so shite, even omnipotence isn't enough to save them. I really hope they beat the red manc scum in the final though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 19, 2025, 08:58:43 AM
With Arteta's Arse now safe, we are left with 243 possible outcomes.

3rd   9.9%
4th   18.5%
5th   23.5%
6th   28.4%
7th   19.8%

So, the Forest result has slightly reduced outcomes in our favour, with 51.9% now resulting in us being top 5.

After Man City play on Tuesday, we will be left with only 81 scenarios. Of those, the following see us getting top 5;

Man City win - 42%
Man City draw - 50.6%
Man City lose - 63%

Come on Bournemouth!  ;D
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 09:05:20 AM
I'm liking this maths approach.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 19, 2025, 09:09:42 AM
I am lucky that our goal different is so bad, as it meant I didn't have to put anything in to deal with scoreline scenarios.  :-[

I might have a play over the summer and see if I can build something in for it and add something for likelihoods, too.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Archbishop Herbert Cockthrottle on May 19, 2025, 09:18:04 AM
We have to assume that Citeh will win their last two so as long as we win, we need Forest to do the same.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 19, 2025, 09:21:23 AM
We have to assume that Citeh will win their last two so as long as we win, we need Forest to do the same.

Or draw, or Newcastle fail to win.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on May 19, 2025, 09:28:11 AM
We just need to win, and hope that one of the other three teams slips up on the last day. 

The chances of the other three all winning their games is pretty high, but not so high as to abandon all hope.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Flamingo Lane on May 19, 2025, 09:36:10 AM
Given the risk of us ending up in the Conference League, would anyone cash in right now with a place in the Europa League?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 19, 2025, 09:37:48 AM
We have possibilities, and none of them are really outlandish.

Everton are unbeaten in the last 3 against Newcastle, and all the pressure will be on Newcastle. They're fantastic at home and it is a massive advantage for them, but it wouldn't be a shock if Everton got something from it. And they will go in to get something, too.

Forest have definitely faltered, but they've only lost 2 out of the last 8 home games. Chelsea I think have only won 1 out of their last 8 away games. Chelsea also have a final 3 days later, and that's something that definitely will be on their mind. For a player, a medal in the hand is worth more than a Champions League campaign in the bush. They're also without Jackson, their second highest goal provider this season.

Man City... yes, on paper, you wouldn't bet against them winning their last two games, and they should. But they should have beaten Southampton. All is not well there. They have two chances to fuck up, and considering their season, again you wouldn't be shocked if they dropped something.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 19, 2025, 09:38:25 AM
Will Isak be missing for next week? Could be a blow as they haven't won a match he has missed in the league this season.

Man City is a strange one. I think they had close to 50 chances over the last two games and haven't scored. You have to assume odds will be for them to convert if they keep on creating the chances, but also the pressure will be on them more. On Saturday there were a couple of times they should have scored but took extra touches to be sure and subsequently wasted them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 19, 2025, 09:41:10 AM
Given the risk of us ending up in the Conference League, would anyone cash in right now with a place in the Europa League?

Nope, the difference in prize money between Conference and Europa is about £10m. The difference between Champions League and Europa is about £30-40m.

Plus the status of it in the eyes of players, the kickers in place for sponsorship deals if we get CL...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 19, 2025, 09:44:23 AM
Will Isak be missing for next week? Could be a blow as they haven't won a match he has missed in the league this season.

Man City is a strange one. I think they had close to 50 chances over the last two games and haven't scored. You have to assume odds will be for them to convert if they keep on creating the chances, but also the pressure will be on them more. On Saturday there were a couple of times they should have scored but took extra touches to be sure and subsequently wasted them.

According to Howe, they don't know yet.

“That is unknown, I don’t know at this moment in time. He only felt pain really after training. During training, he felt fine, just a bit of stiffness really. So he went for a scan this morning as a precaution, but then it became obvious he wasn’t going to be fit to play. So, I don’t know. A lot will depend on how he reacts in the next few days."
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 19, 2025, 09:49:06 AM
As an aside, and not that it matters these days with the format, but we should be in pot 3 for the CL draw and maybe higher in the Europa.

We are currently 46th in the coefficient table.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 19, 2025, 09:51:00 AM
Yep, if Spurs aren't in Europe next season, we have a very good chance of overtaking them in the co-efficient, after only 3 campaigns. Surely yet more evidence that they are just tat pretenders to a big club crown.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 19, 2025, 10:16:40 AM
Given the risk of us ending up in the Conference League, would anyone cash in right now with a place in the Europa League?
No, if its the conference we can focus all our energy on the League next season and treat the conference like Chelsea has.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 19, 2025, 10:34:53 AM
According to the Premier League website, 8th can still get Europe?

https://www.premierleague.com/news/4279477 (https://www.premierleague.com/news/4279477)

Come on Bournemouth!  8)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 10:39:42 AM
That seems to contradict what the BBC were saying. Why is the official Premier League website relying on reports from ESPN? Shouldn't they know, or be able to ask UEFA to check?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 19, 2025, 10:42:19 AM
That seems to contradict what the BBC were saying. Why is the official Premier League website relying on reports from ESPN? Shouldn't they know, or be able to ask UEFA to check?

I did wonder that myself, to the point of checking the Premierleague.com was in fact owned by the Premier League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 19, 2025, 10:46:09 AM
I'm always quick to criticise these places for just quoting each other rather than just checking the rules themselves, but that linked ESPN piece does appear to be very authoritative and the chap does have the air of someone who knows what he's talking about.

It definitely feels more rigorously researched than anything the BBC do these days.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 19, 2025, 10:47:41 AM
That seems to contradict what the BBC were saying. Why is the official Premier League website relying on reports from ESPN? Shouldn't they know, or be able to ask UEFA to check?

I don't think it is. A while back the BEEB mentioned the rare case that Europe could go down to 11th but it would have needed Chelsea to finish 10th and Newcastle /FA Cup winners to finish outside top 5 but in Europe positions, so was ignored. I think this is just the continuation of this, but now Chelsea could finish 7th if they lost to Forest so it is possible.

The BBC do seem to have dropped the Chelsea so low step recently and only have what happens if they finished 6th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: exigo on May 19, 2025, 10:47:44 AM
8th get Europe in the following two scenarios:

Chelsea win the UECL, finish sixth and Newcastle finish seventh. This would involve Toon getting battered at home to Everton, so unlikely.

Or, Chelsea win the UECL and finish seventh. Not beyond the realms of possibility if Forest beat them, we win and City win twice.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 19, 2025, 10:50:13 AM
8th get Europe in the following two scenarios:

Chelsea win the UECL, finish sixth and Newcastle finish seventh. This would involve Toon getting battered at home to Everton, so unlikely.

Or, Chelsea win the UECL and finish seventh. Not beyond the realms of possibility if Forest beat them, we win and City win twice.

One draw would put them above Chelsea.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 19, 2025, 10:50:25 AM
Excellent.  :)

So our Cherry friends with the weird hair fetish do have something to play for tomorrow!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 19, 2025, 10:53:51 AM
We could do with Brighton losing tonight, so Fulham are still in the race come final day against Man City.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Monty on May 19, 2025, 10:54:11 AM
I'm glad they have something to play for, but I'd have hoped Bournemouth and Fulham would give it their all just for honour, justice, and sheer love of the game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 11:00:22 AM
That seems to contradict what the BBC were saying. Why is the official Premier League website relying on reports from ESPN? Shouldn't they know, or be able to ask UEFA to check?

I don't think it is. A while back the BEEB mentioned the rare case that Europe could go down to 11th but it would have needed Chelsea to finish 10th and Newcastle /FA Cup winners to finish outside top 5 but in Europe positions, so was ignored. I think this is just the continuation of this, but now Chelsea could finish 7th if they lost to Forest so it is possible.

The BBC do seem to have dropped the Chelsea so low step recently and only have what happens if they finished 6th.

On MOTD they definitely said if Chelsea win the Conference League and finish seventh then England would have no Conference League qualifier.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 11:00:57 AM
I'm glad they have something to play for, but I'd have hoped Bournemouth and Fulham would give it their all just for honour, justice, and sheer love of the game.

Or, if not that, hatred of Man City will do just as well. Come on you Cherry Cottagers!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeS on May 19, 2025, 11:20:09 AM
That seems to contradict what the BBC were saying. Why is the official Premier League website relying on reports from ESPN? Shouldn't they know, or be able to ask UEFA to check?

I don't think it is. A while back the BEEB mentioned the rare case that Europe could go down to 11th but it would have needed Chelsea to finish 10th and Newcastle /FA Cup winners to finish outside top 5 but in Europe positions, so was ignored. I think this is just the continuation of this, but now Chelsea could finish 7th if they lost to Forest so it is possible.

The BBC do seem to have dropped the Chelsea so low step recently and only have what happens if they finished 6th.

On MOTD they definitely said if Chelsea win the Conference League and finish seventh then England would have no Conference League qualifier.

Shhh, don’t tell Bournemouth
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 11:26:09 AM
That seems to contradict what the BBC were saying. Why is the official Premier League website relying on reports from ESPN? Shouldn't they know, or be able to ask UEFA to check?

I don't think it is. A while back the BEEB mentioned the rare case that Europe could go down to 11th but it would have needed Chelsea to finish 10th and Newcastle /FA Cup winners to finish outside top 5 but in Europe positions, so was ignored. I think this is just the continuation of this, but now Chelsea could finish 7th if they lost to Forest so it is possible.

The BBC do seem to have dropped the Chelsea so low step recently and only have what happens if they finished 6th.

On MOTD they definitely said if Chelsea win the Conference League and finish seventh then England would have no Conference League qualifier.

Shhh, don’t tell Bournemouth

🙂

Sounds like MOTD were talking pish anyway.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on May 19, 2025, 11:29:12 AM
so this week, we are mostly supporting:

Bournemouth
Villa
Forest / Fulham

in that order ?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 19, 2025, 11:29:26 AM
Quote
In the four Premier League games Isak has missed this season, Newcastle have scored once. That was an Anthony Gordon penalty in a draw.

It does not bode well for a final day the Magpies must already be dreading. Callum Wilson against the single most motivated form of Jordan Pickford there has ever been feels like a mismatch.

Let's hope the Newcastle physios are having an off-week.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 19, 2025, 11:33:18 AM
so this week, we are mostly supporting:

Bournemouth
Villa
Forest / Fulham

in that order ?

And Liverpool tonight so Bournemouth can finish ahead of Brighton.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 19, 2025, 11:37:06 AM
Or, if not that, hatred of Man City will do just as well. Come on you Cherry Cottagers!

:o
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on May 19, 2025, 12:00:36 PM
so this week, we are mostly supporting:

Bournemouth
Villa
Forest / Fulham

in that order ?

And Liverpool tonight so Bournemouth can finish ahead of Brighton.

And Everton.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 12:03:41 PM
so this week, we are mostly supporting:

Bournemouth
Villa
Forest / Fulham

in that order ?

Yes, although I think if Bournemouth beat Man City then we'd be better off supporting Chelsea against Forest.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeS on May 19, 2025, 12:07:01 PM
so this week, we are mostly supporting:

Bournemouth
Villa
Forest / Fulham

in that order ?

Yes, although I think if Bournemouth beat Man City then we'd be better off supporting Chelsea against Forest.

Oh Jesus. This is too complicated
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 19, 2025, 12:10:00 PM
If Bournemouth beat Citeh, we just need to worry about winning our game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on May 19, 2025, 12:11:38 PM
VILLA WIN
Qualify if any of the following happen:
Chelsea fail to beat Forest (a)
Newcastle fail to beat Everton (h)
Man City lose either of their remaining games, or draw both - Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)

VILLA DRAW
Qualify if either of the following happen:
Newcastle lose to Everton
Man City take a maximum of one point from their remaining games

VILLA LOSE
Qualify if both of the following happen:
Chelsea beat Forest
Man City lose both their remaining games
Right, I'm taking this as what I want it:

- We beat Manchester United by a cricket score.  5-0 would take us ahead of Forest on goal difference, so that's a good start..
- Manchester City to lose both of their games
- Everton beat Newcastle
- Forest do the same thing as we do - so if we win, they win.  If we lose, they lose.  If we draw, they draw.  Obviously we're winning at least 6-0, so I'll let them win 1-0.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 12:14:44 PM
If Bournemouth beat Citeh, we just need to worry about winning our game.

Yep. The Forest vs Chelsea game would become irrelevant to us in terms of Champions League. Win and in.

If we draw, one of Forest or Chelsea will finish below us and one above, regardless of the result there.

However, defeat would see us below Forest if they avoid defeat which would cost us any chance of Champions League and see us drop all the way into the Conference League if Man City avoid defeat against Fulham.

So in the unlikely event that Bournemouth beat Man City there is no significant benefit to us from Forest avoiding defeat against Chelsea, but we would benefit from Chelsea winning if we lost.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 12:15:55 PM
VILLA WIN
Qualify if any of the following happen:
Chelsea fail to beat Forest (a)
Newcastle fail to beat Everton (h)
Man City lose either of their remaining games, or draw both - Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)

VILLA DRAW
Qualify if either of the following happen:
Newcastle lose to Everton
Man City take a maximum of one point from their remaining games

VILLA LOSE
Qualify if both of the following happen:
Chelsea beat Forest
Man City lose both their remaining games
Right, I'm taking this as what I want it:

- We beat Manchester United by a cricket score.  5-0 would take us ahead of Forest on goal difference, so that's a good start..
- Manchester City to lose both of their games
- Everton beat Newcastle
- Forest do the same thing as we do - so if we win, they win.  If we lose, they lose.  If we draw, they draw.  Obviously we're winning at least 6-0, so I'll let them win 1-0.

We are already a point clear of Forest so goal difference is irrelevant if we win.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on May 19, 2025, 12:22:23 PM
VILLA WIN
Qualify if any of the following happen:
Chelsea fail to beat Forest (a)
Newcastle fail to beat Everton (h)
Man City lose either of their remaining games, or draw both - Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)

VILLA DRAW
Qualify if either of the following happen:
Newcastle lose to Everton
Man City take a maximum of one point from their remaining games

VILLA LOSE
Qualify if both of the following happen:
Chelsea beat Forest
Man City lose both their remaining games
Right, I'm taking this as what I want it:

- We beat Manchester United by a cricket score.  5-0 would take us ahead of Forest on goal difference, so that's a good start..
- Manchester City to lose both of their games
- Everton beat Newcastle
- Forest do the same thing as we do - so if we win, they win.  If we lose, they lose.  If we draw, they draw.  Obviously we're winning at least 6-0, so I'll let them win 1-0.

We are already a point clear of Forest so goal difference is irrelevant if we win.
I don't care ... I want to be ahead of them on goal difference as well, just to prove our superiority. 

Get 7-0 and we increase the record for their biggest ever home defeat (6-0 in 1914, by us).
Reach 8-0 and we beat the record for their biggest ever defeat home or away (7-0 - also us - 1930).

I'd like 12-0 or so, so that we can catch up with Newcastle and Chelsea.  Should be easy enough.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eye digress on May 19, 2025, 12:24:18 PM
Given the risk of us ending up in the Conference League, would anyone cash in right now with a place in the Europa League?

Nope, the difference in prize money between Conference and Europa is about £10m. The difference between Champions League and Europa is about £30-40m.
Is that the difference between the bog standard participation package?

What's the difference between, say, qualifying for the last 16 in the CL and winning the Europa?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 12:27:52 PM
VILLA WIN
Qualify if any of the following happen:
Chelsea fail to beat Forest (a)
Newcastle fail to beat Everton (h)
Man City lose either of their remaining games, or draw both - Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)

VILLA DRAW
Qualify if either of the following happen:
Newcastle lose to Everton
Man City take a maximum of one point from their remaining games

VILLA LOSE
Qualify if both of the following happen:
Chelsea beat Forest
Man City lose both their remaining games
Right, I'm taking this as what I want it:

- We beat Manchester United by a cricket score.  5-0 would take us ahead of Forest on goal difference, so that's a good start..
- Manchester City to lose both of their games
- Everton beat Newcastle
- Forest do the same thing as we do - so if we win, they win.  If we lose, they lose.  If we draw, they draw.  Obviously we're winning at least 6-0, so I'll let them win 1-0.

We are already a point clear of Forest so goal difference is irrelevant if we win.
I don't care ... I want to be ahead of them on goal difference as well, just to prove our superiority. 

Get 7-0 and we increase the record for their biggest ever home defeat (6-0 in 1914, by us).
Reach 8-0 and we beat the record for their biggest ever defeat home or away (7-0 - also us - 1930).

I'd like 12-0 or so, so that we can catch up with Newcastle and Chelsea.  Should be easy enough.

You've convinced me. I now fully support this plan and have forwarded the instructions to Unai.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: john e on May 19, 2025, 12:33:39 PM
I’ve always hated these hypotheticals because they’re a load of bollocks
Having said that I’m now going to ask one because I’m a massive hypocrite

Which option would you choose

1 - Champions League football again and take our chances
2  - guaranteed Europa conference league winners

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eye digress on May 19, 2025, 12:33:59 PM
Quote
In the four Premier League games Isak has missed this season, Newcastle have scored once. That was an Anthony Gordon penalty in a draw.

It does not bode well for a final day the Magpies must already be dreading. Callum Wilson against the single most motivated form of Jordan Pickford there has ever been feels like a mismatch.

Let's hope the Newcastle physios are having an off-week.
Isak usually misses a few weeks with those groin strains, which seem to occur pretty frequently with him.

Given that there must be a chance he will be thinking he's on his way this summer, you'd wonder whether he would be wanting to take many risks with his fitness going into the day...
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 19, 2025, 12:34:32 PM
Given the risk of us ending up in the Conference League, would anyone cash in right now with a place in the Europa League?

Nope, the difference in prize money between Conference and Europa is about £10m. The difference between Champions League and Europa is about £30-40m.
Is that the difference between the bog standard participation package?

What's the difference between, say, qualifying for the last 16 in the CL and winning the Europa?

We've taken home about £70m in prize money by getting to the quarter-finals (knock ten million off that if you want the R16 figure) The winner of the Europa League will end up making around £25m total prize money, runner-up around £15m.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on May 19, 2025, 12:47:55 PM
VILLA WIN
Qualify if any of the following happen:
Chelsea fail to beat Forest (a)
Newcastle fail to beat Everton (h)
Man City lose either of their remaining games, or draw both - Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)

VILLA DRAW
Qualify if either of the following happen:
Newcastle lose to Everton
Man City take a maximum of one point from their remaining games

VILLA LOSE
Qualify if both of the following happen:
Chelsea beat Forest
Man City lose both their remaining games
Right, I'm taking this as what I want it:

- We beat Manchester United by a cricket score.  5-0 would take us ahead of Forest on goal difference, so that's a good start..
- Manchester City to lose both of their games
- Everton beat Newcastle
- Forest do the same thing as we do - so if we win, they win.  If we lose, they lose.  If we draw, they draw.  Obviously we're winning at least 6-0, so I'll let them win 1-0.

We are already a point clear of Forest so goal difference is irrelevant if we win.
I don't care ... I want to be ahead of them on goal difference as well, just to prove our superiority. 

Get 7-0 and we increase the record for their biggest ever home defeat (6-0 in 1914, by us).
Reach 8-0 and we beat the record for their biggest ever defeat home or away (7-0 - also us - 1930).

I'd like 12-0 or so, so that we can catch up with Newcastle and Chelsea.  Should be easy enough.

They'd fucking score in the 102nd minute.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 19, 2025, 12:54:51 PM
I’ve always hated these hypotheticals because they’re a load of bollocks
Having said that I’m now going to ask one because I’m a massive hypocrite

Which option would you choose

1 - Champions League football again and take our chances
2  - guaranteed Europa conference league winners



Number 1.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on May 19, 2025, 12:56:27 PM
I’ve always hated these hypotheticals because they’re a load of bollocks
Having said that I’m now going to ask one because I’m a massive hypocrite

Which option would you choose

1 - Champions League football again and take our chances
2  - guaranteed Europa conference league winners



Number 1.
Ditto
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 19, 2025, 01:00:58 PM
We'll win because we are much better than them. They spent 3 decades regularly beating us because they were much better than us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 01:03:54 PM
They weren't much better than us in the second half of 2022/23 or the two seasons since but we haven't won any of the four meetings in that time (one draw).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on May 19, 2025, 01:04:08 PM
The annoying thing about United is that even when they're shit, they still win things.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 01:05:56 PM
Yep. I want Tottenham to beat them. At least they were mostly good last decade and won fuck all. Man U winning stuff again with a team that's much worse than us would be annoying.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 19, 2025, 01:09:35 PM
CD is a robot sent from the future to suck all fun and positivity out of following Villa.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Monty on May 19, 2025, 01:12:41 PM
I’ve always hated these hypotheticals because they’re a load of bollocks
Having said that I’m now going to ask one because I’m a massive hypocrite

Which option would you choose

1 - Champions League football again and take our chances
2  - guaranteed Europa conference league winners



Champions League. Though might be tempted if you said guaranteed Europa League final.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: garyellis on May 19, 2025, 02:51:03 PM
According to the Premier League website, 8th can still get Europe?

https://www.premierleague.com/news/4279477 (https://www.premierleague.com/news/4279477)

Come on Bournemouth!  8)
Sky we’re saying the same yesterday
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on May 19, 2025, 02:57:57 PM
I don’t know why there is confusion about the Conf League place as it’s Newcastle’s currently as the League Cup Winners unless they qualify for a higher competition in which case it gets given to the League. Whether Chelsea win the Conf League seems neither here nor there to that equation. Unless there is some obscure UEFA competition regualtion that forbids this?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 03:06:39 PM
I don’t know why there is confusion about the Conf League place as it’s Newcastle’s currently as the League Cup Winners unless they qualify for a higher competition in which case it gets given to the League. Whether Chelsea win the Conf League seems neither here nor there to that equation. Unless there is some obscure UEFA competition regualtion that forbids this?

Newcastle secured at least Conference League football when they won the League Cup. However, should they finish in the top six, they would qualify for the Champions League or Europa League and the League Cup holder's Conference League place would not be used, instead it would pass to the seventh placed team.

The Conference League winners qualify for the following year's Europa League, unless they have otherwise qualified for the Champions League.

So, if Chelsea finish seventh and win the Conference League, the 5th, 6th and 7th placed teams would all qualify for the Europa League.

The discussion is what happens to England's Conference League spot in those circumstances. Does England lose it, or does it pass to the eighth placed team? The suggestion now seems to be that the latter is the case.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on May 19, 2025, 03:15:47 PM
8th get Europe in the following two scenarios:

Chelsea win the UECL, finish sixth and Newcastle finish seventh. This would involve Toon getting battered at home to Everton, so unlikely.

Or, Chelsea win the UECL and finish seventh. Not beyond the realms of possibility if Forest beat them, we win and City win twice.

Yeah, this is what MOTD said. I would find it pretty funny, though, if Chelsea managed to lose the final and finish 7th so that they're back in the Conference League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DB on May 19, 2025, 03:27:56 PM
Is it better if ManUre win the EL for us?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 19, 2025, 03:29:18 PM
Is it better if ManUre win the EL for us?

Depends who you ask. I think undoubtedy, yes.

Other opinions are available.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: London Villan on May 19, 2025, 03:32:15 PM
I'm not sure I can watch on Sunday. I might just wait to see the final scores rather than go through the stress of watching us lead at Old Trafford, then throw it away, while all the other results go for us!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on May 19, 2025, 03:36:57 PM
I'm not sure I can watch on Sunday. I might just wait to see the final scores rather than go through the stress of watching us lead at Old Trafford, then throw it away, while all the other results go for us!

I remember having to escape the TV for the last 20 mins of the West Ham relegation game....I couldn't stand it, so just had to get outside and away from all updates.
it was bloody horrible.
     
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on May 19, 2025, 03:37:47 PM
I don’t know why there is confusion about the Conf League place as it’s Newcastle’s currently as the League Cup Winners unless they qualify for a higher competition in which case it gets given to the League. Whether Chelsea win the Conf League seems neither here nor there to that equation. Unless there is some obscure UEFA competition regualtion that forbids this?

Newcastle secured at least Conference League football when they won the League Cup. However, should they finish in the top six, they would qualify for the Champions League or Europa League and the League Cup holder's Conference League place would not be used, instead it would pass to the seventh placed team.

The Conference League winners qualify for the following year's Europa League, unless they have otherwise qualified for the Champions League.

So, if Chelsea finish seventh and win the Conference League, the 5th, 6th and 7th placed teams would all qualify for the Europa League.

The discussion is what happens to England's Conference League spot in those circumstances. Does England lose it, or does it pass to the eighth placed team? The suggestion now seems to be that the latter is the case.

Which is what I’d thought all along but someone, somewhere seems to have cast doubt on this hence the confusion. Why would England lose its Conf League place just because Chelsea won it and qualified for another competition? That makes no sense to me, just because a country wins a competition and qualifies for a higher competition should not mean we lose any places all it should mean is we’ve qualified for more teams by winning UEFA competitions which is as it should be, ie 6 teams in the ECL next season 2 or 3 in the EL and one in the UCL.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 19, 2025, 03:59:05 PM
I'm not sure I can watch on Sunday. I might just wait to see the final scores rather than go through the stress of watching us lead at Old Trafford, then throw it away, while all the other results go for us!

I remember having to escape the TV for the last 20 mins of the West Ham relegation game....I couldn't stand it, so just had to get outside and away from all updates.
it was bloody horrible.
     
after they equalised , those were the longest minutes ever since the Derby final when they pulled the gosl back
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 19, 2025, 04:19:56 PM
The discussion is what happens to England's Conference League spot in those circumstances. Does England lose it, or does it pass to the eighth placed team? The suggestion now seems to be that the latter is the case.

Some seem to think it matters where Chelsea finishes. It is either in 6th place, the 7th place is Europa but we don't put anyone in the Conference, but if it is 7th, Chelsea finishes in Europa but the Conference drops a place. Or vice versa.

TBH I have no idea as I can't find anything directly on UEFA to confirm, only what other organisations are stating and most of those thought we could register 4 or 5 players in Jan for Europe.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 04:38:35 PM
Is it better if ManUre win the EL for us?

No. We want a poisonous atmosphere and the players playing to get the manager sacked.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on May 19, 2025, 04:49:18 PM
It'll be a real shame if Cunha isn't playing in the CL, also.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 19, 2025, 07:24:05 PM
Is it better if ManUre win the EL for us?

No. We want a poisonous atmosphere and the players playing to get the manager sacked.
Absolutely.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 19, 2025, 07:29:08 PM
They’ll either feel crushed or be on the beach. We’ve got a terrible record against them, but if we don’t beat them we should be pretty embarrassed. They lost at home to West Ham - West Ham.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 19, 2025, 07:30:20 PM
they always turn up against us , its the law .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 19, 2025, 07:34:57 PM
Not the last few, the draws and defeats are all about us and not doing what we needed to.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dorsetvillian on May 19, 2025, 07:41:37 PM
We have a better team and manager. We are bang in form. They are poor particularly at home. So I'm going up to old Traffird expecting a Villa win..UTV
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 19, 2025, 07:57:59 PM
Is it better if ManUre win the EL for us?

No. We want a poisonous atmosphere and the players playing to get the manager sacked.
Absolutely.

Yeah, the Old Trafford tourists are going to turn the place into a cauldron of hatred in between their selfies, while their players act in a way that footballers don't behave.

In the real world, we'll be better off with a bunch of players who are still a bit hung-over and pleased that their season ended a few days earlier and they don't have to think about it anymore.

Like ours were on the last day of last season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 08:06:11 PM
It's not the same when you're at home. If we'd played our last game of the season at home last year, we would have carried that euphoria forward and twatted anyone.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 19, 2025, 08:07:28 PM
To be honest, it would have been awesome if these last two fixtures had fallen the opposite way round.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DB on May 19, 2025, 08:18:05 PM
Is it better if ManUre win the EL for us?

No. We want a poisonous atmosphere and the players playing to get the manager sacked.
Absolutely.

Or they win celebrate like mad and are in a right state when they play us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 08:50:48 PM
You can make the case either way. But bearing in mind they've been getting loads of stick all season and generally responded by continuing to play shit, I reckon another defeat that increases the pressure is probably better than a trophy win that gives the whole club a new lease of life.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villa in Denmark on May 19, 2025, 08:56:16 PM
You can argue it both ways in terms of their motivation or lack of. It doesn't alter the fact they're due a right shoeing and we're due to dish one out on the road.

1-4 and Fernandes in tears at the end. One of the other results to fall our way and job done.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 19, 2025, 09:03:09 PM
Or they win celebrate like mad and are in a right state when they play us.

A Yanited win for me, partly for this reason. It would different if they were playing Fulham or Brentford but it's Spurs, so f*ck them.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 19, 2025, 09:33:36 PM
No. We need that stadium flatter than ever and a toxic atmosphere. Players getting into arguments with fans etc .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 19, 2025, 09:38:12 PM
You can argue it both ways in terms of their motivation or lack of.

You definitely can.

Given Coopers' is in favour of "it's better if Man Utd have lost" though, with his track record I feel even more confident with the opposite position.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on May 19, 2025, 09:42:15 PM
This season more than any other - I cant help but look at those avoidable dropped points - Ipswich x 2, Forest away, Man City away.

Our excellent recent form has been amazing - but we really shoudlnt have given ourselves so much to do.   

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: The Edge on May 19, 2025, 09:48:30 PM
No. We need that stadium flatter than ever and a toxic atmosphere. Players getting into arguments with fans etc .
It pains me to say it but the only result I want is a Spurs win hopefully on penalties after a grueling half hour of extra time. That way Old Toilet will be toxic on Sunday and the players will be gutted after losing . I wouldn't normally wish injury on a player but in Brunos case I'll make an exception.
Nothing life threatening I'm not a psycho just a hammy will do.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villa in Denmark on May 19, 2025, 09:49:00 PM
You can argue it both ways in terms of their motivation or lack of.

You definitely can.

Given Coopers' is in favour of "it's better if Man Utd have lost" though, with his track record I feel even more confident with the opposite position.

Good point well made. [Pukemode]Come you red devils.[/pukemode]

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 09:53:37 PM
I just can't. Even if it means agreeing with Tim. Those utter bastards cannot have another shit season and still win a trophy. Just, no. Plus I still think we are better getting them when they're under pressure and trying to get the manager sacked than in celebratory mood. Maybe if they were in the World Club Cash Grab and likely to be resting players, but they're not.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Des Little on May 19, 2025, 10:02:37 PM
Spurs win for me, no question about it. We’ll beat United whichever way their final goes.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on May 19, 2025, 10:04:15 PM
Do you really think Amorim will go at the end of the season if they lose the final, I can’t see it myself.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 10:08:20 PM
Sure, why not? Man United 14th-17th in the league? He'd have to go if they don't win a trophy. That's pathetic.

Hope I'm wrong and they lose both their remaining games and keep him, but can't see them being so stupid.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 19, 2025, 10:15:34 PM
I think he can not wait to get out of there.
The last thing we want is those twats thinking they are a serious football team again and the last season an aberration. A defeat to spurs preferably after a gruelling 120 minutes please.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 19, 2025, 10:16:49 PM
The idea of Spuds winning a trophy… it’s abhorrent.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 10:17:35 PM
Sure. Still better than the alternative.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on May 19, 2025, 10:17:58 PM
The idea of Spuds winning a trophy… it’s abhorrent.
To be fair, that applies to both teams
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villa in Denmark on May 19, 2025, 10:18:32 PM
The idea of Spuds winning a trophy… it’s abhorrent.
Either way is abhorrent. I can't really argue for either result in terms of how it impacts us. Largely because I'm convinced we're going to twat the red ******.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 10:18:55 PM
It was inevitable as soon as that Lyon capitulation happened.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 19, 2025, 10:22:13 PM
Sure. Still better than the alternative.
Exactly.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 19, 2025, 10:24:32 PM
The idea of Spuds winning a trophy… it’s abhorrent.
It's one night, it's not easy or pleasant but get it done , go to bed and sleep and then blank it from memory, it never happened.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 10:25:34 PM
Feel like pure shit just want Bilbao and Bodø/Glimt back.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 19, 2025, 10:26:32 PM
Surely, someone, somewhere, within UEFA has got to look at the quality of this year’s finalists and realise that football is not served by allowing these two turds to contest it?

It’ll be like watching two slugs fuck.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 19, 2025, 10:26:39 PM
On the plus side, one of the ****** loses
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on May 19, 2025, 10:27:15 PM
Sure, why not? Man United 14th-17th in the league? He'd have to go if they don't win a trophy. That's pathetic.

Hope I'm wrong and they lose both their remaining games and keep him, but can't see them being so stupid.

It is pathetic but the money they spent getting rid of Ten Haag and his team and then hiring Amorim, paying the compensation only to pot him after not even a full season, they’ve been awful under two highly regarded coaches that played brilliant football pre Man U. Where would they go after that?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 10:27:23 PM
It’ll be like watching two slugs fuck.

What channel's that on?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 19, 2025, 10:29:11 PM
I think Spurs will pot Ange regardless, I think Yanited will keep Amorim regardless
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 10:29:36 PM
Sure, why not? Man United 14th-17th in the league? He'd have to go if they don't win a trophy. That's pathetic.

Hope I'm wrong and they lose both their remaining games and keep him, but can't see them being so stupid.

It is pathetic but the money they spent getting rid of Ten Haag and his team and then hiring Amorim, paying the compensation only to pot him after not even a full season, they’ve been awful under two highly regarded coaches that played brilliant football pre Man U. Where would they go after that?

Literally anyone who'd ever played Football Manager, seen a game of football or even had a vague understanding of the concept of feet could probably do better than having Man U just above the relegation zone. They'll be praying that he shags the physio's wife at this rate.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on May 19, 2025, 10:29:52 PM
I think Spurs will pot Ange regardless, I think Yanited will keep Amorim regardless

I agree.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 19, 2025, 10:30:17 PM
It’ll be like watching two slugs fuck.

What channel's that on?

If you can imagine it, someone gets off on it.  :-[
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 10:31:16 PM
It’ll be like watching two slugs fuck.

What channel's that on?

If you can imagine it, someone gets off on it.  :-[

Slug sex, Man United or Tottenham winning a trophy. Slug sex, Man United or Tottenham winning a trophy.

Hmm.

COME ON YOU SLUGS!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on May 19, 2025, 10:31:23 PM
Sure, why not? Man United 14th-17th in the league? He'd have to go if they don't win a trophy. That's pathetic.

Hope I'm wrong and they lose both their remaining games and keep him, but can't see them being so stupid.

It is pathetic but the money they spent getting rid of Ten Haag and his team and then hiring Amorim, paying the compensation only to pot him after not even a full season, they’ve been awful under two highly regarded coaches that played brilliant football pre Man U. Where would they go after that?

Literally anyone who'd ever played Football Manager, seen a game of football or even had a vague understanding of the concept of feet could probably do better than having Man U just above the relegation zone.

😂. I might apply if there becomes a vacancy!

( I’ve got a picture of Father Jack in my head “are those my feet”)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on May 19, 2025, 10:31:41 PM
I think Spurs will pot Ange regardless, I think Yanited will keep Amorim regardless

I agree.

I also agree.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 10:36:08 PM
Sure, why not? Man United 14th-17th in the league? He'd have to go if they don't win a trophy. That's pathetic.

Hope I'm wrong and they lose both their remaining games and keep him, but can't see them being so stupid.

It is pathetic but the money they spent getting rid of Ten Haag and his team and then hiring Amorim, paying the compensation only to pot him after not even a full season, they’ve been awful under two highly regarded coaches that played brilliant football pre Man U. Where would they go after that?

Literally anyone who'd ever played Football Manager, seen a game of football or even had a vague understanding of the concept of feet could probably do better than having Man U just above the relegation zone.

😂. I might apply if there becomes a vacancy!

( I’ve got a picture of Father Jack in my head “are those my feet”)

If there is one club that would get away with cheating us with a goal scored with fake hands, it'll be Man United. ☹️
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 19, 2025, 10:39:57 PM
I’d pay to see Kicking Alex Ferguson Up The Arse.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on May 19, 2025, 10:54:33 PM
Sure, why not? Man United 14th-17th in the league? He'd have to go if they don't win a trophy. That's pathetic.

Hope I'm wrong and they lose both their remaining games and keep him, but can't see them being so stupid.

It is pathetic but the money they spent getting rid of Ten Haag and his team and then hiring Amorim, paying the compensation only to pot him after not even a full season, they’ve been awful under two highly regarded coaches that played brilliant football pre Man U. Where would they go after that?

Literally anyone who'd ever played Football Manager, seen a game of football or even had a vague understanding of the concept of feet could probably do better than having Man U just above the relegation zone.

😂. I might apply if there becomes a vacancy!

( I’ve got a picture of Father Jack in my head “are those my feet”)

If there is one club that would get away with cheating us with a goal scored with fake hands, it'll be Man United. ☹️

Brilliant!!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: KevinGage on May 19, 2025, 11:13:59 PM
On the plus side: If they do keep Amorim after the jammiest of cup wins - he's far more likely to stay on and complete the job of relegating the can'ts next year.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: SoccerHQ on May 19, 2025, 11:19:17 PM
I think Man. United would totally implode over the summer if they miss out on CL.

The press would be hammering them every single day so Ratcliffe wouldn't be able to help himself and would probably give another toe curling interview sometime in June which would demotivate their staff and players even more.

Spurs in/out dosen't make much difference. They were in the CL when Unai took over and we've just finished above them for three successive seasons for probably the first time since the 90s?

Them getting CL would not change Levy's strategy one little bit.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 19, 2025, 11:23:45 PM
Had forgotten about Ratcliffe. He's properly a genuinely, utterly awful ******. A thousand times worse than Levy. Another reason to support Slugs/Spurs.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 19, 2025, 11:26:34 PM
Spurs will win. They are a shocking football team .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on May 19, 2025, 11:28:37 PM
I don't really care which of those two shit house clubs win unless there is a slant which impacts us, and there is

I'd rather play Man United without them having the boost of having won a European trophy a few days before. Therefore, I hope Spurs win.

Jesus Christ, sometimes I hate football.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 19, 2025, 11:30:09 PM
Whoever wins the EL final, I expect us to the Champions League come Sunday night. I'll be very disappointed if we're not.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on May 20, 2025, 07:48:01 AM
I don't really care which of those two shit house clubs win unless there is a slant which impacts us, and there is

I'd rather play Man United without them having the boost of having won a European trophy a few days before. Therefore, I hope Spurs win.

Jesus Christ, sometimes I hate football.

It's a kind of vile Hobsons choice.  But I kind of agree.  Plus, I've grudgingly come to quite like Ange, which is outrageous given my Spurs disposition.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: The Edge on May 20, 2025, 08:35:46 AM
I'd rather play a de-motivated Man Yoo so for that reason only I hope Spuds win.
Surely this is going to raise a debate about the whole idea of giving a CL berth to the winners of the Europa Cup? It's the worst case scenario for UEFA because they are going to have a team in the CL next season who finished 16th or 17th. It makes a mockery of the name of the competition.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 20, 2025, 08:41:25 AM
It's no different to us being in it for finishing 4th and maybe 5th when it comes to the name. We'd also have a different view if we were 16th and in the final. I like that you move up a competition, it's just shit with who the finalists are but the idea is sound.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave P on May 20, 2025, 08:43:33 AM
I would do unspeakable things for a Bournemouth win tonight.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 20, 2025, 08:46:16 AM
Yeah no one complained about it until this season. I know people have been saying the CL teams not dropping down has affected the quality of the comp, which I can understand but I do think it's a bit of a freak occurrence this season that the two finalists have been so dreadful domestically.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 20, 2025, 08:48:16 AM
Maybe not that much of a coincidence. I think the Europa League is the worst for domestic football. The Thursday-Sunday turnaround seems to be more problematic than the Tuesday/Wednesday-weekend one you get in the Champions League, but you don't get any Welsh/Irish/Finnish type nonsense like you do in the Conference League allowing you to rest players.

They have done especially dreadfully, but I do think we will struggle more to adapt if we are in the Europa League next season than either of the other two.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 20, 2025, 08:49:22 AM
I much prefer the new format, especially teams not dropping down a competition. It was ridiculous that you had cases of a team playing in all 3 in a single season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 20, 2025, 08:51:10 AM
I much prefer the new format, especially teams not dropping down a competition. It was ridiculous that you had cases of a team playing in all 3 in a single season.

Agree (although the latter circumstance can still happen if you include qualifying rounds).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 20, 2025, 08:54:50 AM
I don't really care which of those two shit house clubs win unless there is a slant which impacts us, and there is

I'd rather play Man United without them having the boost of having won a European trophy a few days before. Therefore, I hope Spurs win.

With respect, I think that's a bit short-sighted as to which impacts Villa.

As per the above, it's easy to make the argument that a (even more) broken demoralised Man Utd is the better one to play. It's equally valid that a tools-down, slightly-hungover version who don't need to give a toss about turning up on the last day is the better one to play. In truth, we *should* beat either version comfortably anyway.

When they sack Postecoglou, Spurs will be better next season than they have been this. People seem to have completely written them off forever now, much like they decided in the two seasons prior to this one that Chelsea were now an irrelevent joke that we didn't need to worry about any more. I remember last summer there were people on here absolutely losing their minds that various pundits were predicting that Chelsea might finish above us this season.

Spurs finished fifth last season and this will be the first time that they've finished lower than eighth since 2008. Until recently the "Spursy" moniker was due to them not winning the league when Leicester did and not winnning the Champions League final. Give them a slightly better manager than the current one, the Champions League to attract players (exactly the sort of players that we would presumably be interested in) and another £150m to spend and they're competing for the positions that we want to be in, like they have been every season until this one for the last twenty years.

The current Man Utd are far more likely to mess up the additional money and power that the Champions League gives them, just like they did last season. They've got an old, unsuitable squad that they can't sell, and the £50m of Champions League money will probably just go to paying off Amorim and his staff when that Brexit twat sacks him in November because they're only ninth in the league.

Maybe both clubs snap out of it and sort themselves out. They definitely will at some point in the next ten years. But Spurs being in the Champions League next season probably makes a big difference to us. Man Utd being in the Champions League probably doesn't.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 20, 2025, 08:56:25 AM
I also prefer the new format, just acknowledging that there will be an inevitable link made between the perceived weakness of the competition with the abysmal quality of the teams in the final. Personally I doubt something like this will happen again.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Abbeyfealeavfc on May 20, 2025, 08:57:15 AM
Yeah no one complained about it until this season. I know people have been saying the CL teams not dropping down has affected the quality of the comp, which I can understand but I do think it's a bit of a freak occurrence this season that the two finalists have been so dreadful domestically.

I've not watched any of the Europa League, so how bad has it been this season, when the two teams contesting the final have lost 39 games between them in the same domestic league?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 20, 2025, 08:59:28 AM
To Dave, what you say may be true but I prefer to see Man Utd suffer as much as possible
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 20, 2025, 08:59:57 AM
There's a lot of guesswork, there. No different  to the guesswork by any of those who say they'd rather Man U lost, as below.

By the sounds of it Tottenham will be sacking the manager regardless. It might work, it might not. But they'll effectively be resetting next season either way, whether they're in the Champions League or not.

A Man United win would lift the whole club. They lose and are, as reports indicate, stupid enough to keep Amorim, they'll start next season with a cloud hanging over them, probably sack him in about October when it's difficult to attract top managers, and likely spend much of next season roughly where they are now.

I reckon 🙂
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 20, 2025, 09:01:42 AM
We won the European Cup while losing 15 league games and finishing 11th. Do any of us care we were pretty crap in the league that season?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 20, 2025, 09:11:34 AM
There's a lot of guesswork, there. No different  to the guesswork by any of those who say they'd rather Man U lost, as below.

By the sounds of it Tottenham will be sacking the manager regardless. It might work, it might not. But they'll effectively be resetting next season either way, whether they're in the Champions League or not.

A Man United win would lift the whole club. They lose and are, as reports indicate, stupid enough to keep Amorim, they'll start next season with a cloud hanging over them, probably sack him in about October when it's difficult to attract top managers, and likely spend much of next season roughly where they are now.

I reckon 🙂

Yes, they will do a complete reset when (and it is when) they change manager. And as we've learned, a reset from a demonstrably awful manager to a manager who might not be awful is likely to mean they're better.

A Man Utd win probably would lift the whole club. Just like winning the FA Cup did last year. And winning the League Cup and qualifying for the Champions League did the year before.  And yet they still keep getting worse, not better.

So let's have a world like this one where both are still in crisis, and we're laughing at both of them rather than one in which us and Spurs are both laughing at Man Utd.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 20, 2025, 09:14:01 AM
It's guesswork either way. And unless we travel to different universes to see the outcome of both scenarios that's all it will ever be.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 20, 2025, 09:18:25 AM
Yeah, when is AI going to make that possible?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 20, 2025, 09:23:58 AM
In terms of ease/quality of opposition, they played the following teams this season:

Man Utd

Twente (H)
Porto (A)
Fenerbache (A)
PAOK (H)
Bodo/Glimt (H)
Viktoria Plzen (A)
Rangers (H)
FCSB (A)

Knockouts

Real Sociedad
Lyon
Athletic Bilbao

Spurs

Qarabag (H)
Ferencvaros (A)
AZ (H)
Galatasaray (A)
Roma (H)
Rangers (A)
Hoffenheim (A)
Elfsborg (H)

Knockouts

AZ
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bodo/Glimt

My observations are that i think there are a couple of group stage matches that look like opportunities to rest players and, in fairness to Man Utd, their knockout fixtures look quite tough on paper.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 20, 2025, 09:30:52 AM
Maybe, but it's still like playing 1960 Real Madrid every game compared to the shite Chelsea have played.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 20, 2025, 09:40:04 AM
Fingers crossed Betis will come as a shock
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villa in Denmark on May 20, 2025, 09:46:48 AM
I'd rather play a de-motivated Man Yoo so for that reason only I hope Spuds win.
Surely this is going to raise a debate about the whole idea of giving a CL berth to the winners of the Europa Cup? It's the worst case scenario for UEFA because they are going to have a team in the CL next season who finished 16th or 17th. It makes a mockery of the name of the competition.

UEFA will be wanking themselves silly at the thought of ManUre being back in the big competition. It's all about tbe viewing figures and selling it to sponsors.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 20, 2025, 03:46:23 PM
Now, I'm not a gambling man. But I singlehandedly dragged Villa over the line last season by betting on Spurs to get top 4, which would have paid for my season ticket.

A quick check on SkyBet tells me that betting £15 on all the results to go against us - (Man City beating Bournemouth and Fulham, Chelsea beating Forest, and Newcastle beating Everton) would net me £1.1k.

It's tempting.

Edit - It had both teams to score on it  >:(
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 20, 2025, 03:54:04 PM
I'm not sure there's a way to bet to ensure you're covered if we don't qualify. Too many variables. You could bet on Man Utd or Draw (evens last time I checked), but we could still qualify by losing and not qualify by winning.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 20, 2025, 03:57:45 PM
Yeah, I can't get it so the winnings are high enough that I can't imagine the universe letting me win it and therefore tipping the balance over to enforce qualification.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on May 20, 2025, 04:00:47 PM
I don't really care which of those two shit house clubs win unless there is a slant which impacts us, and there is

I'd rather play Man United without them having the boost of having won a European trophy a few days before. Therefore, I hope Spurs win.

With respect, I think that's a bit short-sighted as to which impacts Villa.

As per the above, it's easy to make the argument that a (even more) broken demoralised Man Utd is the better one to play. It's equally valid that a tools-down, slightly-hungover version who don't need to give a toss about turning up on the last day is the better one to play. In truth, we *should* beat either version comfortably anyway.

When they sack Postecoglou, Spurs will be better next season than they have been this. People seem to have completely written them off forever now, much like they decided in the two seasons prior to this one that Chelsea were now an irrelevent joke that we didn't need to worry about any more. I remember last summer there were people on here absolutely losing their minds that various pundits were predicting that Chelsea might finish above us this season.

Spurs finished fifth last season and this will be the first time that they've finished lower than eighth since 2008. Until recently the "Spursy" moniker was due to them not winning the league when Leicester did and not winnning the Champions League final. Give them a slightly better manager than the current one, the Champions League to attract players (exactly the sort of players that we would presumably be interested in) and another £150m to spend and they're competing for the positions that we want to be in, like they have been every season until this one for the last twenty years.

The current Man Utd are far more likely to mess up the additional money and power that the Champions League gives them, just like they did last season. They've got an old, unsuitable squad that they can't sell, and the £50m of Champions League money will probably just go to paying off Amorim and his staff when that Brexit twat sacks him in November because they're only ninth in the league.

Maybe both clubs snap out of it and sort themselves out. They definitely will at some point in the next ten years. But Spurs being in the Champions League next season probably makes a big difference to us. Man Utd being in the Champions League probably doesn't.

I disagree, Spurs never have and never will dominate English football, the other lot have and and potentially could again. Keep them in the mire for as long as possible.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 20, 2025, 04:05:10 PM
I disagree, Spurs never have and never will dominate English football, the other lot have and and potentially could again. Keep them in the mire for as long as possible.

They don't need to dominate English football to make our 25-26 season much harder than it needs to be. They just need to return to being the same Spurs as they've been for the last twenty minus one years.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 20, 2025, 05:20:05 PM
Nah, not having it. Spurs are shit and we'll finish above them for the next decade at least. I'm always right about these things. Just like Arsenal being one season wonders after they finished second two seasons ago and Liverpool falling away post Klopp.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Nii Lamptey on May 20, 2025, 05:43:27 PM
Man Utd winning it will feel empty, like a Man City victory. I can just about cope with that, as the club are in an absolute state.
However, if Spurs win it, the media and fanbase would be in total meltdown - They're bad enough when they haven't won anything of any significance for decades. I don't want to experience the world if they actually 'did' win something.

Man Utd win for me. Rat face getting crocked before Sunday would be nice too.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on May 20, 2025, 06:03:48 PM
I don’t know why there is confusion about the Conf League place as it’s Newcastle’s currently as the League Cup Winners unless they qualify for a higher competition in which case it gets given to the League. Whether Chelsea win the Conf League seems neither here nor there to that equation. Unless there is some obscure UEFA competition regualtion that forbids this?

Newcastle secured at least Conference League football when they won the League Cup. However, should they finish in the top six, they would qualify for the Champions League or Europa League and the League Cup holder's Conference League place would not be used, instead it would pass to the seventh placed team.

The Conference League winners qualify for the following year's Europa League, unless they have otherwise qualified for the Champions League.

So, if Chelsea finish seventh and win the Conference League, the 5th, 6th and 7th placed teams would all qualify for the Europa League.

The discussion is what happens to England's Conference League spot in those circumstances. Does England lose it, or does it pass to the eighth placed team? The suggestion now seems to be that the latter is the case.
I assume the rule hasn't changed drastically since last year, which is:

- There's essentially 2 types of qualification - domestic and continental (not the official terms, just called that for sake of describing it).

- A country is guaranteed their domestic qualification quotas - so England is guaranteed 5 Champions League places (1st-5th) + 2 Europa League places (6th & FA Cup Winner) + 1 Conference League place (League Cup winner)

- As domestic qualification places are guaranteed, they are transferrable.  So for example if Newcastle finish 5th and qualify for the Conference League via the League Cup, their Conference League place is transferred to the highest-placed not qualifying team (i.e. 7th)

- If a team wins a continental competition (Champions League, Europa League, Conference League) they qualify for the next competition up.  However, these places are not transferrable.  e.g. if you win the Champions League AND finish in the top 5, there's no extra place - they've already qualified for it.  Likewise, if the Conference League winner qualifies for either the Champions League or the Europa League, the place they've won from winning the Conference League disappears as it's non-transferrable.

To squeeze more European places out, you have to get teams that have a non-transferrable place to qualify domestically lower ranked competition.

The only way we can get more places now is if Chelsea win the Conference League.  In that situation, if Chelsea finish 7th, then 7th place gets the Europa League and the Conference League place drops down to 8th.

In theory you can have 10 teams in Europe, but you'd need:

- 5 Champions League places via the co-efficients (1st-5th)
- 6th place to win the Europa League or Champions League (so also qualify for the CL)
- 7th place qualifies for the Europa League via their league position
- 8th place - If the FA Cup winner finishes in the top 7 (plus all the above), 8th place gets a Europa League spot
- 9th place - The Conference League winner finishes 9th, so qualifies for the Europa League and their Conference League spot drops down to ...
- 10th place - If the League Cup winner also finishes in the top 9

(There's no advantage to English clubs winning both the Champions League and Europa League as there's a maximum of 6 teams from any given country in that competition - it'd simply mean that England effectively lost the co-efficient place)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 20, 2025, 06:30:58 PM
Now, I'm not a gambling man. But I singlehandedly dragged Villa over the line last season by betting on Spurs to get top 4, which would have paid for my season ticket.

A quick check on SkyBet tells me that betting £15 on all the results to go against us - (Man City beating Bournemouth and Fulham, Chelsea beating Forest, and Newcastle beating Everton) would net me £1.1k.

It's tempting.

Edit - It had both teams to score on it  >:(

 Quite clearly that was bollocks before your change, Man City to win twice (they don’t need to to finish above us), Chelsea to win and Newcastle to win is around 9/2.

We are odds on at OT. I will be laying that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on May 20, 2025, 07:55:57 PM
I disagree, Spurs never have and never will dominate English football, the other lot have and and potentially could again. Keep them in the mire for as long as possible.

They don't need to dominate English football to make our 25-26 season much harder than it needs to be. They just need to return to being the same Spurs as they've been for the last twenty minus one years.

If next year constitutes 20 minus 1 years, I think that means Spurs will get relegated, given their success when the year ends in a 1.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 20, 2025, 08:48:31 PM
I think we can discount Citeh now. Fulham aren’t winning that game.

So we need to win and hope Chelsea or Newcastle fail to match our result.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 20, 2025, 09:12:58 PM
I think we can discount Citeh now. Fulham aren’t winning that game.

So we need to win and hope Chelsea or Newcastle fail to match our result.
Yep , it's come down to this now .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on May 20, 2025, 09:17:35 PM
Whichever way you cut it, we have to win next week and hope Chelsea don’t.
Then it’s done and dusted.
I said a couple of days ago, it simply comes down to this.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Richard on May 20, 2025, 10:05:01 PM
OK, one game to go:

Forest to win as a draw is no good to them.
Us to win.
Newcastle to win.
Citeh draw.

Citeh 69
Newcastle 69
Us 69
Forest 68
Chelsea 66
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeonW on May 20, 2025, 10:11:55 PM
If we win I think we’ll qualify as I agree that I think Chelsea won’t win at Forrest. But, I don’t think we’ll win. Not just because it’s old Trafford and we seem to be cursed there. But because I have doubts about this team’s ability to get the job done when the pressure is on. Olympiakos last season, Palace in the cup semi final this season. And (if I’m being slightly ungenerous), when we had PSG of the ropes we didn’t kill them off when we really could have. PSG were at least comparable if not better side than us. But the others were not.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 20, 2025, 10:14:29 PM
I think Forest have run out of energy, as was always likely to happen. They're basically MON-era Villa. Can't see them beating Chelsea, sadly.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Richard on May 20, 2025, 10:17:06 PM
I think Forest have run out of energy, as was always likely to happen. They're basically MON-era Villa. Can't see them beating Chelsea, sadly.

Disagree, thought they looked good on Sunday at West Ham.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 20, 2025, 10:18:49 PM
Perhaps you're right. March was always the catastrophic month under MON. With Forest it seems to have been April. Maybe they'll be alright now that's out of the way.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: BoVillan esq on May 20, 2025, 10:20:08 PM
Forest to win 3-1, the cheques in the post.

Newcastle to draw 1-1. Walkers Nonsuch rule.

Fulham to win 4-1, Pepohlookatmei'mgourgeousola, to be sacked.

Villa to win, we sign Isak!!!.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 20, 2025, 10:38:35 PM
Forest to win 3-1, the cheques in the post.

Newcastle to draw 1-1. Walkers Nonsuch rule.

Fulham to win 4-1, Pepohlookatmei'mgourgeousola, to be sacked.

Villa to win, we sign Isak!!!.

Unlikely, I don't think we'll sign Isak.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Archbishop Herbert Cockthrottle on May 21, 2025, 06:11:25 AM
FFP sudden announcement, Man City docked 5 points. All is well.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dick Edwards on May 21, 2025, 07:12:56 AM
We are down to the last round of games now and while there are still various permutations mathematically possible our fate realistically comes down to just two fixtures going in our favour. We win our ninth Premier League game out of the last ten against a team with a poor home record this season, while Forest, a team with an excellent home record and still with everything to play for don't lose at home to Chelsea, a team with no available strikers. We will do this.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 21, 2025, 07:39:46 AM
And players in England now on-beach
Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,
And hold their medals cheap whiles any speaks
That played with us upon Saint Unai’s day.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: German James on May 21, 2025, 07:58:39 AM
Unai means cowherd, I just discovered.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 21, 2025, 08:13:43 AM
...while Forest, a team with an excellent home record and still with everything to play for don't lose at home to Chelsea, a team with no available strikers

No available strikers and one league away win since early December.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Marlon From Bearwood on May 21, 2025, 08:24:08 AM
Palace proving last night that the confidence and feel good factor of winning a cup outweighs the downside of ‘partying for two days’.

Therefore I want Man Utd to lose tonight.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 21, 2025, 08:38:06 AM
In the unlikely event anyone doesn't know, these are the final scenarios.

Final fixtures:
Manchester United vs Aston Villa
Fulham vs Manchester City
Newcastle United vs Everton
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea

VILLA WIN
Champions League if at least one of the below happens:
Man City lose
Newcastle fail to win
Chelsea fail to win

Otherwise Europa League

VILLA DRAW
Champions League if:
Newcastle lose

Otherwise Europa League

VILLA LOSE
Europa League if:
Forest lose

Otherwise Conference League
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 21, 2025, 08:50:00 AM
Thanks cdbf.
I will be cheering the lillywhites tonight , I might even sing oh when the spurs er maybe not.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 21, 2025, 08:50:54 AM
What this thread proves is all the optimistic shouts for disinterested teams to show up and try has been misplaced. Same as thinking Everton do anything g on Sunday.

I’d love to be an optimistic person but I’m not. Often the optimists then become agree when reality hits. Better to be realistic. Chelsea are 2.24 to win on Sunday and we are about 1.8. So they have a 45% chance of winning and we have about 65%. So for us to win and them not it’s about 35% likely. 1 in 3 shot.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 21, 2025, 08:52:50 AM
I am definitely not in the optimistic camp, put me down as hopeful and scared.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 21, 2025, 08:57:55 AM
Chelsea beating a motivated Forest, given the mentality of that Chelsea side and their away form, would really suprise me.

We win our game and look after that as a priority. Whether an Everton straight out of 2008-awkward vintage get a result, who knows and we may not care.

The statistical certainties apply to baseball and don't transmit to football, which is a funny old game for a reason.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on May 21, 2025, 09:01:04 AM
Palace proving last night that the confidence and feel good factor of winning a cup outweighs the downside of ‘partying for two days’.

Therefore I want Man Utd to lose tonight.
A very, very good point
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave P on May 21, 2025, 09:09:18 AM
The way I look at it is: -

Villa win = Champions League
Villa Draw = Europa League
Villa Lose = Conference League

Not definite or scientific of course, but more than likely.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 21, 2025, 09:23:22 AM
Palace proving last night that the confidence and feel good factor of winning a cup outweighs the downside of ‘partying for two days’.

Therefore I want Man Utd to lose tonight.

Or proving thar Ollie Glasner is the best manager in Europe.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Villa in Denmark on May 21, 2025, 09:24:18 AM
Palace proving last night that the confidence and feel good factor of winning a cup outweighs the downside of ‘partying for two days’.

Therefore I want Man Utd to lose tonight.

Or Palace are a decent team playing for a coach that demands professionalism against a mediocre at best Wolves team that have been on the beach for weeks.

V

ManUre are a rabble playing for a coach they don't want against a very good and motivated us.

It can be argued both ways.  I just know that whatever the result tonight I'll be disappointed that one of those bunch of twats has one a major trophy despite being utter Blues.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: The Edge on May 21, 2025, 09:32:41 AM
I've resigned myself to accepting that we will be playing in the Europa league next season. It's the only one we haven't had a crack at yet and Unai's got a great record in it so we have a chance of winning it. CL would be a bonus of course but we have the worst goal difference out of the competing teams. We've struggled to get our goal difference into the positive column all season long and it's turned out to be our achilles heel.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 21, 2025, 09:54:38 AM
Palace proving last night that the confidence and feel good factor of winning a cup outweighs the downside of ‘partying for two days’.

Therefore I want Man Utd to lose tonight.

Occams Razor, the Wolves are shit.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 21, 2025, 10:13:16 AM
If we win our game, then there are only 27 possible permutations for the other three.

Only 2 of those 27 see us finishing outside the top 5. So over 92% of all possible outcomes result in us painting the Champions League claret and blue once again.

So yep, get the win and we'd have to be unlucky not to get in.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 21, 2025, 10:33:49 AM
Palace proving last night that the confidence and feel good factor of winning a cup outweighs the downside of ‘partying for two days’.

Therefore I want Man Utd to lose tonight.
A very, very good point

While Man City last night prove that losing a cup doesn't have to send you into a tailspin of despair that results in you losing your last home game of the season!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: LeeB on May 21, 2025, 10:43:02 AM
I think the key is both ManCity and Palace are very decent teams, whereas Man Utd are Blues.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on May 21, 2025, 11:20:39 AM
@CDBULLYWEE, will you be updating a swingometer of our Champion's League Qualification hopes in real time on Sunday?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 21, 2025, 11:23:46 AM
One downside of Manure winning the cup is that they will be parading it before the match or at halftime, which might raise the crowd up rather then them being miserable bastards expecting a 10th loss at home and getting on the teams backs.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Monty on May 21, 2025, 11:25:30 AM
Yeah I'm firmly in the 'better if they lose' camp, with the proviso that it'd be best on penalties.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DB on May 21, 2025, 11:31:00 AM
Yeah, ManUre lose after extra time with the Portuguese diver coming off with a hammy.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 21, 2025, 11:47:54 AM
Unai means cowherd, I just discovered.

The cowbells are ringing for the claret & blue....

Unai can also mean shepherd but let's not use that for any songs.

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Grande Pablo on May 21, 2025, 02:42:25 PM
All that effort by Palace might end up in embarassement...

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/may/21/crystal-palace-europa-league-participation-lyon-john-textor-concerns
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on May 21, 2025, 08:36:15 PM
Live on TNT on Sunday
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Des Little on May 21, 2025, 09:19:05 PM
If we can’t beat this United rabble on Sunday we don’t deserve ECL. They’re utter shite.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rob_bridge on May 21, 2025, 10:31:07 PM
If we can’t beat this United rabble on Sunday we don’t deserve ECL. They’re utter shite.

Indeed.

Any team that loses 4 times in a season to this Spuds team has serious issues
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 21, 2025, 11:39:03 PM
If we win our game, then there are only 27 possible permutations for the other three.

Only 2 of those 27 see us finishing outside the top 5. So over 92% of all possible outcomes result in us painting the Champions League claret and blue once again.

So yep, get the win and we'd have to be unlucky not to get in.

Pretty simple equation if we win really.  A win for us means Manchester City would just have to avoid defeat and both Newcastle and Chelsea would have to win to finish above us. 

Us drawing would mean Newcastle would need to lose for us to finish in the top 5. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Richard E on May 22, 2025, 06:30:55 AM
I had a dream last night that someone scored a goal somewhere 8 seconds from time which resulted in us finishing 7th. There was a thread on here afterwards titled ‘Are you angry or upset?’
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 22, 2025, 07:00:18 AM
I’ll say one thing, knowing realistically a win is needed I’d rather have our game than Chelsea’s.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on May 22, 2025, 08:27:59 AM
Still possible for us to finish 3rd. Think we've only done that twice in our history.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 22, 2025, 09:06:48 AM
Still possible for us to finish 3rd. Think we've only done that twice in our history.

Don’t see that’s really realistic. If we get 5th I’ll be delighted.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on May 22, 2025, 09:10:37 AM
Oh obviously not likely, but we can dream.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: montague on May 22, 2025, 09:37:24 AM
Still possible for us to finish 3rd. Think we've only done that twice in our history.

When did our history start? ;)
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 22, 2025, 11:02:33 AM
Yeah we've only finished third in the top flight twice, 1894/95 and 1928/29. Once in the second tier (1972/73) the year before they extended promotion from the top two to the top three. 🥺
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 22, 2025, 11:30:14 AM
Yeah we've only finished third in the top flight twice, 1894/95 and 1928/29.

I've mentioned that on here before. It's a bit of a quirky stat, given how often we've been runners-up.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on May 22, 2025, 03:17:02 PM
Yeah we've only finished third in the top flight twice, 1894/95 and 1928/29.

I've mentioned that on here before. It's a bit of a quirky stat, given how often we've been runners-up.

Always the bridesmaid never the flowergirl?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: jwarry on May 22, 2025, 03:44:15 PM
I've resigned myself to accepting that we will be playing in the Europa league next season. It's the only one we haven't had a crack at yet and Unai's got a great record in it so we have a chance of winning it. CL would be a bonus of course but we have the worst goal difference out of the competing teams. We've struggled to get our goal difference into the positive column all season long and it's turned out to be our achilles heel.

Our Achilles heel turned out to be tha last minute goal we conceded against Citeh - and if I remember rightly Unai’s face said it all when it went in, he was devastated
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 22, 2025, 03:50:16 PM
Maybe. Or maybe it'll turn out that our injury time winner against Chelsea was the vital goal?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: jwarry on May 22, 2025, 04:06:41 PM
Maybe. Or maybe it'll turn out that our injury time winner against Chelsea was the vital goal?

True but if the Citeh goal hadn’t gone iin we’d have 67 and they would have 66
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 22, 2025, 04:17:50 PM
Maybe. Or maybe it'll turn out that our injury time winner against Chelsea was the vital goal?

True but if the Citeh goal hadn’t gone iin we’d have 67 and they would have 66

And if the Asensio goal hadn't gone in we'd have 64 and they'd have 67.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: The Edge on May 22, 2025, 04:55:37 PM
I've resigned myself to accepting that we will be playing in the Europa league next season. It's the only one we haven't had a crack at yet and Unai's got a great record in it so we have a chance of winning it. CL would be a bonus of course but we have the worst goal difference out of the competing teams. We've struggled to get our goal difference into the positive column all season long and it's turned out to be our achilles heel.

Our Achilles heel turned out to be tha last minute goal we conceded against Citeh - and if I remember rightly Unai’s face said it all when it went in, he was devastated
The defence switched off in the 95th minute and it was a hammer blow. Not only for our CL ambitions but it carried over to the semi final a few days later. Over the season we've dropped plenty of points in games where we've missed great chances. We also developed an alarming knack of conceding from the first shot on target. All in all it lead to us having a negative goal difference right up until quite recently. When you look at it that way it's quite an achievement that we're still in with a shout of CL football going into the last game. I guess what I'm getting at is we need to score more goals and concede less. Who knew.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: The Edge on May 22, 2025, 04:59:05 PM
Yeah we've only finished third in the top flight twice, 1894/95 and 1928/29. Once in the second tier (1972/73) the year before they extended promotion from the top two to the top three. 🥺
Bloody hell that must of took some serious research. Fair play .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 22, 2025, 05:22:29 PM
Yeah we've only finished third in the top flight twice, 1894/95 and 1928/29. Once in the second tier (1972/73) the year before they extended promotion from the top two to the top three. 🥺
Bloody hell that must of took some serious research. Fair play .

He just looked on the right wall of his bedroom.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: RamboandBruno on May 22, 2025, 05:40:24 PM
If everything goes to form on Sunday, which it of course might not, but form usually does count for something, then we should win, man city should beat Fulham, Newcastle should beat Everton and Chelsea shouldn’t win at Forest. Which would mean we qualify.
I don’t buy all this talk of the man city game, why not go back to any game during the season, what about Bournemouth at home, the two Ipswich draws, how about Malens last minute miss against Liverpool, or Ollies two open goal misses against Arsenal back in August.
We are where we are and we have a good chance on Sunday.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Archbishop Herbert Cockthrottle on May 23, 2025, 07:33:56 AM
Yeah we've only finished third in the top flight twice, 1894/95 and 1928/29. Once in the second tier (1972/73) the year before they extended promotion from the top two to the top three. 🥺
Bloody hell that must of took some serious research. Fair play .

He just looked on the right wall of his bedroom.

What's on the left wall?

No. Don't answer that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on May 23, 2025, 07:55:54 AM
I don't think it's going to happen. There I've said it. 😔
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Duncan Shaw on May 23, 2025, 08:20:39 AM
I don't think it's going to happen. There I've said it. 😔

You and the Beeb by the read of it, their take this morning reads to me that they think Forest have got more chance of it than us. 

I think it depends on us winning, obviously.  If we can turn up and get a result under pressure, then I think one of the other results will go for us.  But whether we do is what I'm wrestling with!!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on May 23, 2025, 08:25:02 AM
I don't think it's going to happen. There I've said it. 😔

You and the Beeb by the read of it, their take this morning reads to me that they think Forest have got more chance of it than us. 

I think it depends on us winning, obviously.  If we can turn up and get a result under pressure, then I think one of the other results will go for us.  But whether we do is what I'm wrestling with!!

Ever the bridesmaid… the bbc has pictures of the ‘other 3’ managers this morning.  It will never change. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 23, 2025, 08:25:41 AM
The BBC article I read predicts us to finish fifth.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 23, 2025, 08:35:34 AM
I don’t buy all this talk of the man city game, why not go back to any game during the season, what about Bournemouth at home, the two Ipswich draws, how about Malens last minute miss against Liverpool, or Ollies two open goal misses against Arsenal back in August.
We are where we are and we have a good chance on Sunday.

The reason I'm looking at that one is because we were in the middle of a great run (and is the only blip in the league since the Palace game) and we just didn't play as well as we could have. Even on 90 minutes it would have been a result to take and if we had held on for the draw we would have been on 67 and they would have been on 66. So all we had to do was match Newcastle, Citeh and Chelsea instead of relying on other results even with a win.

Yes any dropped points could be pointed out but to me this is the killer if we don't make CL.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on May 23, 2025, 07:12:31 PM
Whatever happens, if we finish on 69 points, 2 more points than last season, whilst having to compete (and boy did we) in the Champions League and at one point not being able to field 2 CB's, is quite incredible when you sit back and think about it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 23, 2025, 07:24:20 PM
Whatever happens, if we finish on 69 points, 2 more points than last season, whilst having to compete (and boy did we) in the Champions League and at one point not being able to field 2 CB's, is quite incredible when you sit back and think about it.

If we don't qualify with a win, I hope we at least get decent weather for the Europa League victory parade this time next year.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on May 24, 2025, 12:02:16 AM
Whatever happens, if we finish on 69 points, 2 more points than last season, whilst having to compete (and boy did we) in the Champions League and at one point not being able to field 2 CB's, is quite incredible when you sit back and think about it.

69 is one more point than last season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on May 24, 2025, 12:24:11 AM
We've been fucking useless and need to buck up our ideas.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on May 24, 2025, 02:45:50 AM
We've been fucking useless and need to buck up our ideas.

Haha yeah, that point changes everything.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 24, 2025, 06:24:45 AM
I reckon, if we end the season with a solid 69, there will be satisfaction all round.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 24, 2025, 06:59:17 AM
I tend to agree. If we win then we will have done our bit. Even if we end up 6/7th it still represents a successful season although I suspect the consensus will be one of disappointment.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on May 24, 2025, 07:24:54 AM
We got our act together for the last 10 games but we weren't great for the first 28 games, especially away from home. Really, we're where we are because our home form has been outstanding and we're finishing strong. Going from Champions League games to Premier League games has been a tough challenge and a learning curve and we're still building the squad depth we need in order to handle that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 24, 2025, 08:02:38 AM
I think the PL has been weaker this season than last, this does not undermine the impact that CL football has had on our league form.
We could and should have more point than we have right now though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 24, 2025, 08:28:24 AM
It's hard not to dwell on the Citeh match because it's recent and has such a clear impact. Such a terrible goal to concede too. I know every team has these moments and there's nothing that can be done about it now but what is being a fan other than torturing yourself with the if onlys?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rigadon on May 24, 2025, 09:55:37 AM
I tend to agree. If we win then we will have done our bit. Even if we end up 6/7th it still represents a successful season although I suspect the consensus will be one of disappointment.

It wont be fair or even reasonable, but if we finish 7th (or even 6th for some) the season will end with a lot of fans feeling deflated. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on May 24, 2025, 10:41:42 AM
I tend to agree. If we win then we will have done our bit. Even if we end up 6/7th it still represents a successful season although I suspect the consensus will be one of disappointment.

It wont be fair or even reasonable, but if we finish 7th (or even 6th for some) the season will end with a lot of fans feeling deflated. 

It shouldn't though. Worse case scenario, we finish 2 points behind what we achieved last year having had to combine league football with the CL for the first time in the modern era. Then not being far off reaching the semi finals of the CL and a semi final of the FA cup when we normally go out in the 3rd round. All while we had to sell Luiz and Diaby.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 24, 2025, 10:44:43 AM
I think the PL has been weaker this season than last, this does not undermine the impact that CL football has had on our league form.
We could and should have more point than we have right now though.
The league has been weaker due to how dire the bottom 3 are and the immense fall off of clubs like Spurz and ManUre
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on May 24, 2025, 10:50:07 AM
I think the PL has been weaker this season than last, this does not undermine the impact that CL football has had on our league form.
We could and should have more point than we have right now though.
The league has been weaker due to how dire the bottom 3 are and the immense fall off of clubs like Spurz and ManUre

Countered by the improvement of Newcastle and Chelsea.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on May 24, 2025, 10:53:41 AM
I tend to agree. If we win then we will have done our bit. Even if we end up 6/7th it still represents a successful season although I suspect the consensus will be one of disappointment.

It wont be fair or even reasonable, but if we finish 7th (or even 6th for some) the season will end with a lot of fans feeling deflated. 

It shouldn't though. Worse case scenario, we finish 2 points behind what we achieved last year having had to combine league football with the CL for the first time in the modern era. Then not being far off reaching the semi finals of the CL and a semi final of the FA cup when we normally go out in the 3rd round. All while we had to sell Luiz and Diaby.

Yep. First season in the Champions League, everyone was predicting for us to not be able to cope (understandable) but we've done really quite good. It will feel a bit shit if we don't get it, but in context, we have done well. Look at Newcastle last season, the twats, and we got to the quarters!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on May 24, 2025, 10:58:57 AM
I said at the start that given the summer's enforced sales and the added pressure of the Premier League I'd be happy with sixth and the knockout stage respectively. We did better than expected in the latter so I'll be disappointed rather than sad with winning next year's Europa League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 24, 2025, 11:15:32 AM
The bottom 3 were shit last year. I'm not sure the bottom 3 being shit again this year makes any difference.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 24, 2025, 11:21:09 AM
It's been a very good season with some excellent moments and some disappointing ones. I firmly believe that if we hadn't had that spell of our defence being hit with a new injury every game we'd already be in the CL. None of the other CL contendors had to deal with anything like that, and if they had they'd already be out of contention. We've done remarkably well to take it down to the last game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on May 24, 2025, 11:34:38 AM
The big immediate disappointment tomorrow will be if we don't do our bit and win.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Monty on May 24, 2025, 11:37:38 AM
The big immediate disappointment tomorrow will be if we don't do our bit and win.

The media are doing their absolute best to curse the fuck out of us too. So many articles on how bad Man Utd are, that everyone's miserable, they can't run in a straight line, they smell etc. I've never seen such a jinx effort before in my life.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 24, 2025, 11:40:06 AM
The bottom 3 were shit last year. I'm not sure the bottom 3 being shit again this year makes any difference.
Well it does . This season the bottom 3 collected 59 points in total.
Last season they collected 80 points .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 24, 2025, 11:42:36 AM
The bottom 3 were shit last year. I'm not sure the bottom 3 being shit again this year makes any difference.
Well it does . This season the bottom 3 collected 59 points in total.
Last season they collected 80 points .

Luton 26, Burnley 24, Sheff U 16. Total points, not 80.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Beard82 on May 24, 2025, 11:47:24 AM
So long as we win tomorrow - I won’t have too many complaints.

We did well given the pressure of UCL, plus the ffp tightrope which I think meant we came into the season light.  We had a lit of injuries in the first half - something a lot of our peers didn’t.

I think whatever happens will go into next season looking quite different - so would be great for us to end with a win.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 24, 2025, 11:49:34 AM
The bottom 3 were shit last year. I'm not sure the bottom 3 being shit again this year makes any difference.
Well it does . This season the bottom 3 collected 59 points in total.
Last season they collected 80 points .

Luton 26, Burnley 24, Sheff U 16. Total points, not 80.
76 then . 22/23 the bottom 3 collected 90 points.
So it further underlines how crap this seasons bottom 3 are.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 24, 2025, 11:52:38 AM
Not 76 either. Keep trying.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: JD on May 24, 2025, 11:54:25 AM
Not 76 either. Keep trying.

Brilliant. Glad he's not my accountant.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 24, 2025, 12:00:10 PM
Get your kicks, on Route 76.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 24, 2025, 12:02:10 PM
Not 76 either. Keep trying.

Brilliant. Glad he's not my accountant.
Cooking the books , whoops . I'll go for a lie down.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 24, 2025, 12:03:39 PM
So long as we win tomorrow - I won’t have too many complaints.

We did well given the pressure of UCL, plus the ffp tightrope which I think meant we came into the season light.  We had a lit of injuries in the first half - something a lot of our peers didn’t.

I think whatever happens will go into next season looking quite different - so would be great for us to end with a win.
I think the biggest threat to us tomorrow is Palmer at Chelsea . That lad can win games on his own , just need to pray Forest are on him .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 24, 2025, 01:46:31 PM
I think the biggest threat to us tomorrow is Palmer at Chelsea . That lad can win games on his own , just need to pray Forest are on him .

They probably wish he'd done that a bit more winning matches on his own, he's scored once in his last twenty matches in all competitions. His last goal away from Stamford Bridge was on January 4th.

"Wasteful" Ollie Watins has nine in the same time period.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on May 24, 2025, 01:50:28 PM
The gods are watching Dave.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 24, 2025, 02:00:37 PM
I feel like we are fighting a two person war to keep all the heretics on here in line, at times.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Sexual Ealing on May 24, 2025, 02:02:06 PM
We’ll be rewarded in the afterlife mate. Literal nothingness means nothing can go wrong.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 24, 2025, 02:12:05 PM
I reckon, if we end the season with a solid 69, there will be satisfaction all round.

If we win and don't qualify, it'll be a hard one to swallow.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Clampy on May 24, 2025, 02:18:27 PM
It'll be a massive blow if we don't do it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 24, 2025, 02:42:57 PM
Not sure what the pun is about. Anyone want to spit it out?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: curiousorange on May 24, 2025, 03:07:57 PM
Stop making a meal of it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 24, 2025, 03:10:35 PM
ManU call us Aston Vanilla as they always lick us.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Monty on May 24, 2025, 03:11:56 PM
This thread sucks. I'm just hoping Forest and Chelsea fuck each other.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 24, 2025, 03:33:00 PM
I think the PL has been weaker this season than last, this does not undermine the impact that CL football has had on our league form.
We could and should have more point than we have right now though.
The league has been weaker due to how dire the bottom 3 are and the immense fall off of clubs like Spurz and ManUre

Countered by the improvement of Newcastle and Chelsea.
Arsenal and Citeh have gone backwards.
Overall i think the standard has gone down.
Liverpool won it at a canter.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PeterWithesShin on May 24, 2025, 03:40:45 PM
It's more a case of the rest of the league improves each year imo. The PL is far far stronger than any other league. Look at ManU, as funny as it is if you stuck them in any other league there's no chance they'd be at the arse end. And it's why promoted side struggle more than ever, the PL is an obscene money machine that only a small number of clubs outside of it can compete with.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 24, 2025, 04:20:47 PM
Yeah - Brentford, Brighton, Bournemouth, Fulham and Palace are the least "mid-table fodder" I can remember the PL having. They all have really good players and top-class managers.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 24, 2025, 04:47:53 PM
I think the PL has been weaker this season than last, this does not undermine the impact that CL football has had on our league form.
We could and should have more point than we have right now though.
The league has been weaker due to how dire the bottom 3 are and the immense fall off of clubs like Spurz and ManUre

Countered by the improvement of Newcastle and Chelsea.
Arsenal and Citeh have gone backwards.
Overall i think the standard has gone down.
Liverpool won it at a canter.
Yep, and it's not even one of Liverpool's better teams of recent years
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ez on May 24, 2025, 04:55:04 PM
If we don't get champions league there is some level of consolation in being in the europa league and reinforcing our place as a top six club. Seventh place would be disappointing though.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 24, 2025, 06:29:11 PM
'tanian has probably crunched the numbers on this - are we more likely to finish 6th or 7th tomorrow?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 24, 2025, 06:45:35 PM
'tanian has probably crunched the numbers on this - are we more likely to finish 6th or 7th tomorrow?

Well we entirely control that. If we win we can’t finish worse than 6th.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 24, 2025, 06:53:20 PM
'tanian has probably crunched the numbers on this - are we more likely to finish 6th or 7th tomorrow?

I have indeed.

As it stands today, there are 81 permutations remaining. The percentage showing us finishing per position, are;

3rd 4.9%
4th 14.8%
5th 22.2%
6th 35.8%
7th 22.2%
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: dave.woodhall on May 24, 2025, 07:29:40 PM
Yeah - Brentford, Brighton, Bournemouth, Fulham and Palace are the least "mid-table fodder" I can remember the PL having. They all have really good players and top-class managers.

We talked about this a few years ago - how TV money has levelled the playing field for smaller clubs who manage to stay up for a couple of years. Much as it's funny, there's no way Manchester United and Spurs would have finished where they will ten years ago.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: edgysatsuma89 on May 24, 2025, 08:06:39 PM
Yeah, the league is definitely stronger as a whole. It's also why the promoted teams are really beginning to struggle. I think we may have also seen the end of teams getting around 100 points, for a time, anyway.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 24, 2025, 08:11:46 PM
'tanian has probably crunched the numbers on this - are we more likely to finish 6th or 7th tomorrow?

I have indeed.

As it stands today, there are 81 permutations remaining. The percentage showing us finishing per position, are;

3rd 4.9%
4th 14.8%
5th 22.2%
6th 35.8%
7th 22.2%


Again this assumes each result is equally likely, which is a false premise. Although the results are not dissimilar to those assigning likelihood (bookies).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 24, 2025, 08:18:26 PM
Yeah, the league is definitely stronger as a whole. It's also why the promoted teams are really beginning to struggle. I think we may have also seen the end of teams getting around 100 points, for a time, anyway.

Earlier I looked up when Sunderland were last in the PL. They were relegated and finished bottom in 2017 with 24 points, then Boro with 28, and Hull with 34 points. 2 of the 3 promoted teams were relegated (Boro and Hull) but were clearly more competitive.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 24, 2025, 08:30:32 PM
Would be interesting to see where Leicester Southampton Ipswich picked up their points this season , any correlation, off each other etc. We only dropped points to Ipswich .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on May 24, 2025, 10:34:05 PM
Just done my sky soccer 6 and when you click on the popular button to see how other people have predicted it’s got us at 78% of people thinking we’ll win, 39% think Forest will, with 31% going with Chelsea and the remaining thinking draw.
Hopefully the masses are correct.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on May 24, 2025, 10:38:15 PM
I think a lot depends on the ref in the Forest game. If he lets them kick fuck out of Chelsea, Forest should win. If he starts showering them with yellow cards, it would take a lot from their normal game.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: rougegorge on May 24, 2025, 10:43:35 PM
'tanian has probably crunched the numbers on this - are we more likely to finish 6th or 7th tomorrow?

Well we entirely control that. If we win we can’t finish worse than 6th.
If we draw we can't finish worse than 6th either
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: mike on May 24, 2025, 10:45:39 PM
'tanian has probably crunched the numbers on this - are we more likely to finish 6th or 7th tomorrow?

I have indeed.

As it stands today, there are 81 permutations remaining. The percentage showing us finishing per position, are;

3rd 4.9%
4th 14.8%
5th 22.2%
6th 35.8%
7th 22.2%


I did this many years ago with our odds of getting into UEFA. Very few options had us not qualifying. Then Darren Ambrose scored a scrappy free kick and we didn’t qualify.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dogtanian on May 24, 2025, 10:59:28 PM
I did this many years ago with our odds of getting into UEFA. Very few options had us not qualifying. Then Darren Ambrose scored a scrappy free kick and we didn’t qualify.

It’s a funny old game, innit!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on May 24, 2025, 11:27:50 PM
Vaguely rings a bell...what season was that? One of the O'Dreary ones I assume. Actually, the season we finished 6th under him, we didn't get Europe, did we?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 24, 2025, 11:32:12 PM
Yeah. I'm guessing it was the close run thing with Liverpool and someone else, probably Newcastle, in 2004 under O'Leary. I remember the year because Liverpool finished fourth and that led to Istanbul

Definitely no Europe as O'Neill's Moscow was the first run since Gregory when we lost to whoever it was after Atletico Madrid. Celta Vigo?

Edit: Not true. Forgot NK fucking Varteks. Haven't heard of them before or since.

Edit2: Just googled and Varteks folded 10 years ago.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on May 25, 2025, 07:08:56 AM
Everton have got no chance without Big Ears and Branthwaite.

(Please let this post be mocked within an inch of its life at around 6pm tonight).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on May 25, 2025, 07:20:52 AM
Yeah. I'm guessing it was the close run thing with Liverpool and someone else, probably Newcastle, in 2004 under O'Leary. I remember the year because Liverpool finished fourth and that led to Istanbul

Definitely no Europe as O'Neill's Moscow was the first run since Gregory when we lost to whoever it was after Atletico Madrid. Celta Vigo?

Edit: Not true. Forgot NK fucking Varteks. Haven't heard of them before or since.

Edit2: Just googled and Varteks folded 10 years ago.

Think Varteks have been refounded since then, there may even be 2 separate clubs.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: wince on May 25, 2025, 07:56:52 AM
We will do it. Have faith!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on May 25, 2025, 08:43:08 AM
Come on Forest, Fulham, Everton.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 25, 2025, 10:04:40 AM
Come on Forest, Fulham, Everton.

…and Villa.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on May 25, 2025, 10:05:48 AM
Suddenly feeling very less confident about the outcome of today and am starting to think Chelsea are going to beat Forest
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 25, 2025, 10:19:02 AM
Chelsea have the massive advantage it's in their control . I think they will beat Forest as their players will step up and Forest have been fading of late and the Fat Controller has left a toxicity around the place .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 25, 2025, 10:41:07 AM
Everton have got no chance without Big Ears and Branthwaite.

(Please let this post be mocked within an inch of its life at around 6pm tonight).

I mentioned when Tarkowski went off injured it would be bad for us. I actually think both Citeh and Chelsea got three points because of him being missed.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on May 25, 2025, 11:00:55 AM
Everton have got no chance without Big Ears and Branthwaite.

(Please let this post be mocked within an inch of its life at around 6pm tonight).

I mentioned when Tarkowski went off injured it would be bad for us. I actually think both Citeh and Chelsea got three points because of him being missed.

Yes. I think I mentioned that at the time too.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Mellin on May 25, 2025, 11:18:00 AM
Nerves are kicking in. Pretty fucking pivotal in the grand scheme of things, ain't it.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on May 25, 2025, 11:21:50 AM
Has needing to finish 5th in the league EVER been so bloody nerve wracking?

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: lovejoy on May 25, 2025, 11:26:52 AM
To state the obvious, the difference between 5th and 6/7th is a couple of our players having to leave.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dick Edwards on May 25, 2025, 11:30:23 AM
I think we'll win, and I don't think Chelsea will. If this happens, fantastic, we'll finish top five. If not, 24 out of 27 points in our last nine games bodes very well  for next season. We're statistically the best team in the league going into today. Who would have forecast this run of results at the end of our loss at Selhurst Park?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bent Neilsens Screamer on May 25, 2025, 11:37:07 AM
I think we'll win, and I don't think Chelsea will. If this happens, fantastic, we'll finish top five. If not, 24 out of 27 points in our last nine games bodes very well  for next season. We're statistically the best team in the league going into today. Who would have forecast this run of results at the end of our loss at Selhurst,  Park?

I’m in the same camp. Forest is a tough place to go and Chelsea are poor on the road. The only thing I’ve noticed recently is Forest, instead of playing Elanga and Hudson Odie, have been putting an extra midfielder in. Don't know if that’s due to injury or tactical.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Percy McCarthy on May 25, 2025, 12:08:56 PM
I think we'll win, and I don't think Chelsea will. If this happens, fantastic, we'll finish top five. If not, 24 out of 27 points in our last nine games bodes very well  for next season. We're statistically the best team in the league going into today. Who would have forecast this run of results at the end of our loss at Selhurst Park?

Even more impressive when you look at our fixtures. All top half teams except for Southampton and the last two games.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Goldenballs on May 25, 2025, 03:34:40 PM
Newcastle 2-0, fairly straightforward.
Man City 3-1, drawing for a bit then then get a couple in the last 20
Villa 1-1, late 87th Utd equaliser
Chelsea 3-2, stoppage time Chelsea winner.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: andyh on May 25, 2025, 03:36:14 PM
Newcastle 2-0, fairly straightforward.
Man City 3-1, drawing for a bit then then get a couple in the last 20
Villa 1-1, late 87th Utd equaliser
Chelsea 3-2, stoppage time Chelsea winner.
Flipping hell. Has someone trod on your foot ?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on May 25, 2025, 03:37:31 PM
Newcastle 2-0, fairly straightforward.
Man City 3-1, drawing for a bit then then get a couple in the last 20
Villa 1-1, late 87th Utd equaliser
Chelsea 3-2, stoppage time Chelsea winner.

https://www.heroesandvillains.info/forumv3/index.php?topic=65969.0
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Goldenballs on May 25, 2025, 03:40:14 PM
Four Roses Small Batch, 52%. See you tomorrow.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 25, 2025, 06:03:28 PM
Europa it is even with the awful team tactics today. Shame as even a draw would have been enough but the team and Emery weren't even trying for that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Richard E on May 25, 2025, 06:06:33 PM
No. We will not.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 25, 2025, 06:15:20 PM
Obviously a shocking ref decision - but we turned up against a side are utterly pathetic and managed to make them look good. Given the stakes we were an utter disgrace.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 25, 2025, 06:15:58 PM
You could tell it was going to be a typical Man U vs Villa match inside the first five minutes.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: caster troy on May 25, 2025, 06:16:06 PM
Now would be a great time for that Man City points deduction.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 25, 2025, 06:16:33 PM
Honestly wouldn't have minded Europa League at the start of the season and probably even at the turn of the year, but missing out on the Champions League (and particularly in that fashion).feels like a big blow and one that could have wider ramifications for the club.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on May 25, 2025, 06:20:47 PM
You just know we are losing in the Europa SF or Final to Palace next year.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: stevo_st on May 25, 2025, 06:21:06 PM
Have to come back next season stronger
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Stu on May 25, 2025, 06:22:23 PM
Honestly wouldn't have minded Europa League at the start of the season and probably even at the turn of the year, but missing out on the Champions League (and particularly in that fashion).feels like a big blow and one that could have wider ramifications for the club.

Agree. Not even trying to win today, when it's the last thing to play for, is criminal. This team will be broken up in the summer because PSR and it's going to be a while until we compete for CL again.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: jwarry on May 25, 2025, 06:24:20 PM
Honestly wouldn't have minded Europa League at the start of the season and probably even at the turn of the year, but missing out on the Champions League (and particularly in that fashion).feels like a big blow and one that could have wider ramifications for the club.

Agree. Not even trying to win today, when it's the last thing to play for, is criminal. This team will be broken up in the summer because PSR and it's going to be a while until we compete for CL again.

Or maybe the team needs to be broken up? In Unai I trust
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 25, 2025, 06:25:17 PM
Honestly wouldn't have minded Europa League at the start of the season and probably even at the turn of the year, but missing out on the Champions League (and particularly in that fashion).feels like a big blow and one that could have wider ramifications for the club.


If we have bet the farm on CL we’re fucking mental - I’m hoping we’ve more sense than that.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on May 25, 2025, 06:26:11 PM
Honestly wouldn't have minded Europa League at the start of the season and probably even at the turn of the year, but missing out on the Champions League (and particularly in that fashion).feels like a big blow and one that could have wider ramifications for the club.

Agree. Not even trying to win today, when it's the last thing to play for, is criminal. This team will be broken up in the summer because PSR and it's going to be a while until we compete for CL again.

Why? We can come back every bit as strong next season and compete again for a top 4 place. As shit as today was we’ve had a brilliant overall end to the PL season. That didn’t happen by accident. What fucked things up was the start we made and the massive defensive injuries we had at CB.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: malckennedy on May 25, 2025, 06:28:38 PM
However poor we were today, the bottom line is that we didn’t qualify for the Champions League and the Jaudis did because of a corrupt refereeing decision.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: DC1874 on May 25, 2025, 06:32:18 PM
Fuck the FA I hope England never win a pot again!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PhilVill on May 25, 2025, 06:32:25 PM
Honestly wouldn't have minded Europa League at the start of the season and probably even at the turn of the year, but missing out on the Champions League (and particularly in that fashion).feels like a big blow and one that could have wider ramifications for the club.

Agree. Not even trying to win today, when it's the last thing to play for, is criminal. This team will be broken up in the summer because PSR and it's going to be a while until we compete for CL again.

Or maybe the team needs to be broken up? In Unai I trust

Agree, I think this team has gone as far as it could, its time for a bit of a revamp and to be honest, the difference between Europa and CL is that two big names will be gone by June 30th and not one.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Stu on May 25, 2025, 06:34:20 PM
Honestly wouldn't have minded Europa League at the start of the season and probably even at the turn of the year, but missing out on the Champions League (and particularly in that fashion).feels like a big blow and one that could have wider ramifications for the club.

Agree. Not even trying to win today, when it's the last thing to play for, is criminal. This team will be broken up in the summer because PSR and it's going to be a while until we compete for CL again.

Why? We can come back every bit as strong next season and compete again for a top 4 place. As shit as today was we’ve had a brilliant overall end to the PL season. That didn’t happen by accident. What fucked things up was the start we made and the massive defensive injuries we had at CB.

We've had a decently full squad for months. I get that we're relatively spoiled now however I would say we haven't been convincing very often. PSR means we have to sell, so whatever was on offer this season won't come up again very soon. Absolutely bottled the lot.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Behind Bluenose Lines on May 25, 2025, 06:36:20 PM
Fuck the FA I hope England never win a pot again!
I wouldn't worry too much about that!
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 25, 2025, 11:33:45 PM
Still feeling raw at the moment.  If I'm honest though, it's the financial implications that are main concern, with missing out on potential fixtures against some of the giant clubs also being a consideration. 

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: ChicagoLion on May 26, 2025, 05:28:43 AM
Still feeling raw at the moment.  If I'm honest though, it's the financial implications that are main concern, with missing out on potential fixtures against some of the giant clubs also being a consideration.
The summer is going to be about complying with PSR with a severely reduced budget, Europa League is worth l circa 20% of Champions League revenue.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: stevo_st on May 26, 2025, 09:55:36 AM
I always felt we were working within EL budget along with the flexibility the Grealish sale gave us. We need the youth investment to start feeding the 1st team now.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on May 26, 2025, 12:03:16 PM
However poor we were today, the bottom line is that we didn’t qualify for the Champions League and the Jaudis did because of a corrupt refereeing decision.

Nope, bottom line is we would have scored at OT, but would have still lost 2-1 as we were down to 10 men and had put in probably our joint worst domestic performance of the season even when we were at 11.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 26, 2025, 12:36:26 PM
That's not how how football works, unless I'm missing some context.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 26, 2025, 12:48:34 PM
Do the right thing and levy the Man Citeh punishment to level it out.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on May 26, 2025, 12:50:15 PM
As Emery said we really lost out on the CL in the first part of the season. We will do it two ways next season. Europa winners and league position. We will come back stronger.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: kippaxvilla2 on May 26, 2025, 01:53:36 PM
 No.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on May 26, 2025, 01:58:19 PM
You just know we are losing in the Europa SF or Final to Palace next year.
I am properly worried about the prospect of playing Go Ahead Eagles.

Eagles - check
Random foreign team you’ve never heard of before or since - check
Villa still Villa-ing stuff up - check

You just know.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on May 26, 2025, 02:06:51 PM
I can live with Europa League, and as others have said, we can genuinely win it.

The Conference though, although still European football, would have been a massive disappointment.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 26, 2025, 02:15:50 PM
Yeah agreed. Essentially we’ve got two routes back into the Champions League and a real opportunity to win a trophy.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 26, 2025, 03:29:05 PM
As Emery said we really lost out on the CL in the first part of the season. We will do it two ways next season. Europa winners and league position. We will come back stronger.

When it comes down to fine margins, you are always going to look back at various points over the season, but in the end it came down to yesterday and we blew it. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Toronto Villa on May 26, 2025, 04:01:27 PM
As Emery said we really lost out on the CL in the first part of the season. We will do it two ways next season. Europa winners and league position. We will come back stronger.

When it comes down to fine margins, you are always going to look back at various points over the season, but in the end it came down to yesterday and we blew it. 

We certainly could have played better. But then again we have played well there or other places and lost. Fine margins also comes down to the refs decision to blow his whistle. We somehow got to that point 0-0 with a man down. I’d have put money on us finding a way to hold on to at least a point with 20 to go.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: BoVillan esq on May 26, 2025, 04:12:15 PM
As Emery said we really lost out on the CL in the first part of the season. We will do it two ways next season. Europa winners and league position. We will come back stronger.

When it comes down to fine margins, you are always going to look back at various points over the season, but in the end it came down to yesterday and we blew it.

You can't argue with this, absolutely correct, none of this conversation would be taking place had we won, plus when you think how other results went our way, who would have bet on Everton, difficult team, but Newcastle at Newcastle, wow!, the thing is, its possible there are things we are not seeing here that would account for such a dire performance, when it was so badly needed, its possible that this team have peaked, its possible that there are a number of players who's heads are turned, looking elsewhere, and of course the unmentionable..its possible Uni Emry himself has peaked and has nothing left to offer, i read a brilliant footy analysis on the life of a football manager in the modern game, 3 seasons and the stats show the games up, move on, some even earlier some never get the team/club right.

As said it was up to the team to do there stuff yesterday, but why was is so very poor.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 26, 2025, 04:31:05 PM
Very much the "nearly" season, we have shown Arsenal levels of choking in the big games when it mattered most .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 26, 2025, 04:59:52 PM
As Emery said we really lost out on the CL in the first part of the season. We will do it two ways next season. Europa winners and league position. We will come back stronger.

When it comes down to fine margins, you are always going to look back at various points over the season, but in the end it came down to yesterday and we blew it. 

We certainly could have played better. But then again we have played well there or other places and lost. Fine margins also comes down to the refs decision to blow his whistle. We somehow got to that point 0-0 with a man down. I’d have put money on us finding a way to hold on to at least a point with 20 to go.

That's true TV and I agree that I don't think we lose that game if we go ahead at that point.  We were dreadful yesterday though and made it extremely difficult for ourselves. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: brontebilly on May 26, 2025, 05:21:07 PM
Very much the "nearly" season, we have shown Arsenal levels of choking in the big games when it mattered most .

The fact we finished with 66 points and went deep in two cup competitions does suggest Emery got a lot right and the players in the main performed strongly. You don't get to the big games without mastering the run of the mill stuff.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on May 26, 2025, 06:32:11 PM
We won pretty much every "big game" at home. We lost every one against our rivals for the Champions League away from home and were knocked out of the cup the first time we played a team from our own division outside Aston.

I think we maybe lack a bit of pace on the break. Teams can't commit so many players forward when they know you have someone like Diaby or Bailey (anywhere near his best) to catch them out on the counter. Compare that to the last ten minutes at Forest, or pretty much the whole game in Paris or even against a fucking dreadful Man U team yesterday where they were camped in our half.

Even at the time, Philogene never looked like a signing who would replace the output of Diaby, and we've been unlucky with Bailey being injured and struggling for form when he has been available.

Tl;dr: go sign some fast as fuck wingers.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 26, 2025, 07:34:03 PM
We won pretty much every "big game" at home. We lost every one against our rivals for the Champions League away from home and were knocked out of the cup the first time we played a team from our own division outside Aston.

I think we maybe lack a bit of pace on the break. Teams can't commit so many players forward when they know you have someone like Diaby or Bailey (anywhere near his best) to catch them out on the counter. Compare that to the last ten minutes at Forest, or pretty much the whole game in Paris or even against a fucking dreadful Man U team yesterday where they were camped in our half.

Even at the time, Philogene never looked like a signing who would replace the output of Diaby, and we've been unlucky with Bailey being injured and struggling for form when he has been available.

Tl;dr: go sign some fast as fuck wingers.

Agree about the need for pace.  We have, however, had a handful of absolutely stinking performances this season and they have all involved the whole attacking unit giving tne ball away far too often.  It means we have been under constant pressure in those games and have cracked.

Rogers and Watkins had absolute howlers yesterday and gave the ball away pretty much every time they had it. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 26, 2025, 08:32:50 PM
We do lack pace , and pace is essential in this league .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: pauliewalnuts on May 26, 2025, 08:34:21 PM
We do lack pace , and pace is essential in this league .

Not that essential if, despite having none of it, we've just finished sixth.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 26, 2025, 08:36:30 PM
We do lack pace , and pace is essential in this league .

Not that essential if, despite having none of it, we've just finished sixth.
It's essential if you want to actually win anything . Other than the 6th place Trophy and missing out on the ECL land of milk and honey .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 26, 2025, 08:40:47 PM
Sounds really easy this. I guess if we buy two fast players, we'll win two trophies instead of one.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 26, 2025, 08:43:29 PM
Indeed - pace is an important component, but it’s part of a wider picture.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on May 26, 2025, 08:47:05 PM
I imagine if we really tried to bully Fulham we might be able to get Adama Traore back.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: tomd2103 on May 26, 2025, 08:47:30 PM
Sounds really easy this. I guess if we buy two fast players, we'll win two trophies instead of one.

Might be a bit more to it than that!  Watching the 'elite' teams we played in the Champions League games at Villa Park this season, one thing that really struck me was the athleticism and pace they had in their teams.  It meant that when they broke in attack, they seemed to be on the edge of our area in an instant. 
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 26, 2025, 08:48:30 PM
So you're saying we need to buy three, just to be sure?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on May 26, 2025, 08:54:26 PM
Indeed - pace is an important component, but it’s part of a wider picture.
It's a vital ingredient, Rashford gave us the danger of pace, Diaby provided it last season. I like the look of Malen as he's pacey but has barely played . That team out there yesterday had no pace whatsoever.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: PaulWinch again on May 26, 2025, 09:01:28 PM
Well it did - Maatsen is rapid, but I agree we need more of it out wide.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on May 26, 2025, 09:05:56 PM
Onana is one of the fastest players in the league.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on August 07, 2025, 10:36:42 PM
Opta have us finishing 5th next season. Obviously not a definite CL place but close. However alot of the predictions also seem to be taking from where people finished last season as still have Spurs and Manure bottom half.

https://theanalyst.com/articles/premier-league-predictions-2025-26-opta-supercomputer

Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on August 08, 2025, 09:51:43 AM
5th won't be enough with the Spurs mutants stinking the Champions League out.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on August 08, 2025, 09:57:14 AM
I doubt it will be either as I think we are dividing points earned by 9 rather then 7 or 8 and we have teams like Forest, Newcastle and Palace in there as well as Spurs.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on August 08, 2025, 09:58:38 AM
5th won't be enough with the Spurs mutants stinking the Champions League out.

Yeah, there's no recent history to point to of poor Spurs sides doing well in Europe.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smithy on August 08, 2025, 10:00:38 AM
I think qualifying through the league is going to be tough (but not impossible).  I think our chances of winning the Europa League are about the same as finishing top 4.

This is the bit where Emery does something incredible and moulds a team that look like champions league certainties from October onwards.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: AV82EC on August 08, 2025, 10:04:03 AM
I doubt it will be either as I think we are dividing points earned by 9 rather then 7 or 8 and we have teams like Forest, Newcastle and Palace in there as well as Spurs.

This is true, everyone in Europe needs to be on it this year to maintain the extra CL place. I’d imagine us and Forest will do well in the EL and also Palace in the ECL it all depends on how Spuds and Newcastle do in the CL.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Dave on August 08, 2025, 10:20:19 AM
I doubt it will be either as I think we are dividing points earned by 9 rather then 7 or 8 and we have teams like Forest, Newcastle and Palace in there as well as Spurs.

This is true, everyone in Europe needs to be on it this year to maintain the extra CL place. I’d imagine us and Forest will do well in the EL and also Palace in the ECL it all depends on how Spuds and Newcastle do in the CL.

It would be quite a surprise if they didn’t both make it to at least the play-off round.

Unless someone really screws it, I'd be surprised if England didnt have the fifth place again next year.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on August 08, 2025, 10:23:03 AM
5th won't be enough with the Spurs mutants stinking the Champions League out.

Yeah, there's no recent history to point to of poor Spurs sides doing well in Europe.

Beating Frodo Baggins in front of 9 whalers and their polar bear, before a game so excruciatingly low in quality you could barely watch is not to me a sign they're going to go toe to toe with PSG and do it for the coefficient.

But you have your achsually moment.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on August 08, 2025, 10:55:19 AM
5th won't be enough with the Spurs mutants stinking the Champions League out.

Yeah, there's no recent history to point to of poor Spurs sides doing well in Europe.

Beating Frodo Baggins in front of 9 whalers and their polar bear, before a game so excruciatingly low in quality you could barely watch is not to me a sign they're going to go toe to toe with PSG and do it for the coefficient.

But you have your achsually moment.

They don't have to go toe-to-toe with PSG though, they need to beat the teams from pots 3 and 4, so the likes of Slavia Prague, Ajax, Olympiacos, etc. 3 wins an 2 draws get you to knockout and even Newcastle and Spurs should be able to manage that. If they do, and assuming we have 3-4 teams get into the semi finals (as is usual) then that should be enough for the 5th spot.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on August 08, 2025, 10:59:39 AM
I'm pretty sure the only times England don't get the highest coefficient is when there are more English teams in Europe so it doesn't bode well.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Monty on August 08, 2025, 11:01:00 AM
5th won't be enough with the Spurs mutants stinking the Champions League out.

Yeah, there's no recent history to point to of poor Spurs sides doing well in Europe.

Beating Frodo Baggins in front of 9 whalers and their polar bear, before a game so excruciatingly low in quality you could barely watch is not to me a sign they're going to go toe to toe with PSG and do it for the coefficient.

But you have your achsually moment.

They don't have to go toe-to-toe with PSG though, they need to beat the teams from pots 3 and 4, so the likes of Slavia Prague, Ajax, Olympiacos, etc. 3 wins an 2 draws get you to knockout and even Newcastle and Spurs should be able to manage that. If they do, and assuming we have 3-4 teams get into the semi finals (as is usual) then that should be enough for the 5th spot.

We're in the Unai Trophy this year anyway, so we might not need the league.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Meanwood Villa on August 08, 2025, 11:02:21 AM
We don't win trophies.

We'll finish 3rd and lose the final.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on August 08, 2025, 11:11:00 AM
I'm pretty sure the only times England don't get the highest coefficient is when there are more English teams in Europe so it doesn't bode well.

but the change in format helps us out more than many other leagues because our lower ranked teams used to get drawn in groups like (Newcastle, Milan, PSG, Dortmund) and end up getting a kicking but now even if they do get those 3 it's only 1 game each and there are 5 more games, 4 of which are against lower ranked sides.

The money in the premier league means the strength in depth as you go down towards midtable is much higher than you see in any other league and even relegation battlers and newly promoted sides are able to out spend all but a handful of teams elsewhere. For example, Oviedo came up through the playoffs into la liga and have spent £11m-ish - Sunderland have spent £130m from the same position.

English sides have to fail spectacularly to not make at least the play off round, honestly we should see 7-8 teams in the knockouts most seasons in the new format, purely because of our financial advantages.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on August 08, 2025, 11:12:24 AM
Man City struggled to. Spurs are shite. We'll need to finish 4th and/or win the Europa League.

I'm in favour of and.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on August 08, 2025, 11:23:27 AM
Man City struggled to. Spurs are shite. We'll need to finish 4th and/or win the Europa League.

I'm in favour of and.

Struggled to, and then did anyway, despite being shit, which kinda backs up my point, even a poor run saw them get 14.75 coefficient points and not be a significant drag on the national total. Every stat you can find backs up the idea that, with this new format, England should be top most seasons, regardless of how many places we have. the 2nd spot will then generally rotate between Spain, Italy and Germany who will all suffer a little with the extra teams because they have some absolute dross finishing in 7th and 8th in their leagues and those teams really are at risk of bombing out (just like Stuttgart, RB Leipzig, Bologna, Girona and Hoffenheim did last year).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on August 08, 2025, 11:32:43 AM
I doubt it will be either as I think we are dividing points earned by 9 rather then 7 or 8 and we have teams like Forest, Newcastle and Palace in there as well as Spurs.

This is true, everyone in Europe needs to be on it this year to maintain the extra CL place. I’d imagine us and Forest will do well in the EL and also Palace in the ECL it all depends on how Spuds and Newcastle do in the CL.

It would be quite a surprise if they didn’t both make it to at least the play-off round.

Unless someone really screws it, I'd be surprised if England didnt have the fifth place again next year.

If England had nine qualifiers last season, and the two extra teams had got zero coefficient points each, England would still have got the extra Champions League place from finishing in the top two places.

On the one hand, England should be slightly weaker on average this season, because of the extra teams. One the other hand, though, the extra teams mean that if one or two underperform it isn't as bad for the average as would be the case if you have fewer teams.

Tl;dr. I would be surprised if England doesn't have (at least) five Champions League teams next season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on August 08, 2025, 11:34:14 AM
The concern is the points are divided by 9 instead of 7-8 like Germany, Italy, France and Spain. It does have a knock-on, especially if one or two teams go out early on.

Last season Germany and Italy who both had extra teams compared to England and Spain didn't qualify for the extra place. England did slaughter it points wise with two competitions won and an all England final in one. Last season 29 points with 7 teams only equals 23 points with 9 so we would need a very similar finish again to gurantee a 5th place CL.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on August 08, 2025, 11:35:15 AM
Cant see it this season unless we get another 2 or 3 in
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on August 08, 2025, 11:36:03 AM
The "extra" teams are Chelsea and Tottenham. The former have just twatted PSG while the latter won the Europa League. It would be a surprise if they don't do better than the likes of Bologna and RB Leipzig managed last season, let's be honest.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Ads on August 08, 2025, 11:39:19 AM
It's fucking Spurs though. Not even Spurs fans rely on Spurs.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on August 08, 2025, 11:41:22 AM
It's fucking Spurs though. Not even Spurs fans rely on Spurs.

No one is relying on them though, jut pointing out that even at their most spursy they should be able to win a couple of games against some of the dross in pot 3 and 4.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: paul_e on August 08, 2025, 11:44:28 AM
The concern is the points are divided by 9 instead of 7-8 like Germany, Italy, France and Spain. It does have a knock-on, especially if one or two teams go out early on.

Last season Germany and Italy who both had extra teams compared to England and Spain didn't qualify for the extra place. England did slaughter it points wise with two competitions won and an all England final in one. Last season 29 points with 7 teams only equals 23 points with 9 so we would need a very similar finish again to gurantee a 5th place CL.

Only if the 2 extra teams lose every game, if you get a few wins and squeeze into the playoff round you get about 14 points, which would nudge that average up, meaning even getting a couple of teams into the semi-finals would be enough unless all the other spots are teams from 2 other nations.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Keeno on August 08, 2025, 11:44:50 AM
My prediction for us this season is 5th. Hopefully that will be enough for CL. I think the top 3 seem fairly set, but below that it's a bit of a moving feast - very similar to last year, there may only be a few points separating 4-7th by the end of the year again as we're all quite similar strength.

I think the slightly lower-pressure Europa League nights, especially in the first half of the season, where we can rotate more, will hopefully prevent that mid-season dip that we had last year and play into our advantage.

Chelsea and Newcastle both have that heavy CL league-phase schedule where they're unlikely to rotate their first XI as much. And Newcastle have had a shocking summer, and may still lose Isak (at the very best they'll have an unhappy player on their hands). If he goes, they're in big trouble at this stage of the summer.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Somniloquism on August 08, 2025, 12:27:13 PM
Chelsea will be interesting as in theory they are in the same boat as us in that the A-list changes are limited, but last season they had mostly lower players in there and currently have only recovered £80-90m of a £240mil spend. So which players get registered?

Edit: Mudryk is on their A list so that is one who has to come off but wouldn't be able to be sold.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Drummond on August 08, 2025, 12:31:27 PM
Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea have all strengthened from positions of already being strong.

Newcastle haven't done much and have to worry about Champs League again. Tottenham have a new manager, a broadly similar squad and no Maddison to drive them forward.

Man Utd have strengthened but not got rid of their deadwood, yet.

I'd say 5th place is realistic for us. Higher is possible, hoping that one of the Top 4 have a bad year.

Forest will be top half, and other than that it's all a bit meh.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: VillaTim on August 08, 2025, 12:47:30 PM
Need to get away to a fast start. Our opening fixtures are very kind and we need to set the pace .
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: UK Redsox on August 08, 2025, 01:20:37 PM
I think that the poll needs resetting with the options being 'No' and 'Hell No'
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: brontebilly on August 08, 2025, 01:43:07 PM
Guardian have us down for 5th. Going to need a lot of luck with key players avoiding injury for that to happen. I do think the final weeks of this transfer window will be even more crazy than usual, Tottenham and Newcastle will be getting desperate. No excuses for Arsenal this year, have spent big again so it has to land the title. My surprise, maybe more in hope, is that Man City struggle a bit. There was something a bit off with them last season.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on August 08, 2025, 01:54:17 PM
Would snatch your hand off for fifth as it stands. Though seventeenth with a cup would do.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Brazilian Villain on August 08, 2025, 01:57:33 PM
I look forward to the discussions on who will get our CL spot when we win the Europa League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: eamonn on August 09, 2025, 08:47:23 AM
City have signed half a new team, more likely to elevate them and snap them out of last season's slump than continue their regression but we Iive in hope. Or the PL can get a wiggle on with relegating them to the Beezer Homes League.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Richard E on August 09, 2025, 09:03:22 AM
Guardian have us down for 5th. Going to need a lot of luck with key players avoiding injury for that to happen. I do think the final weeks of this transfer window will be even more crazy than usual, Tottenham and Newcastle will be getting desperate. No excuses for Arsenal this year, have spent big again so it has to land the title. My surprise, maybe more in hope, is that Man City struggle a bit. There was something a bit off with them last season.

I think Liverpool are going to walk the title.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on August 09, 2025, 09:24:08 AM
The money in the premier league means the strength in depth as you go down towards midtable is much higher than you see in any other league and even relegation battlers and newly promoted sides are able to out spend all but a handful of teams elsewhere. For example, Oviedo came up through the playoffs into la liga and have spent £11m-ish - Sunderland have spent £130m from the same position.
Was going to say, finishing 20th in the Premier League gets you more (domestic) prize money than all bar dozen or so teams in the rest of Europe (from memory something like top 6 in Spain, top 3-4 in Italy, and the winners of the German league). There’s CL/EL/CL cash too which means it’s not *quite* that, but still… you’d expect even newly promoted sides to be able to outspend pretty much any side in Europe that hasn’t at least qualified for the Conference League, most of the teams that *have* qualified for it, and a good proportion of the teams that are in the Europa League too.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: algy on August 09, 2025, 09:30:38 AM
I look forward to the discussions on who will get our CL spot when we win the Europa League.
The place for winning the Europa League is non-transferable & league takes precedence, so the Champions League place we’ll get for winning the league will remove that extra CL place.

The only crumbs we’ll be handing down will be the Europa League place from our FA Cup win.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Smirker on August 09, 2025, 03:40:37 PM
Mods, can we reset the poll, pick ourselves up and go again?
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on August 09, 2025, 05:06:21 PM
I will start a new one for the season unless anyone objects.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on August 09, 2025, 05:09:45 PM
Too late.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Demitri_C on August 09, 2025, 07:06:46 PM
We really need to improve on the defence if we are to do it. I just cant see us keeping enough clean sheets
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Rudy Can't Fail on August 09, 2025, 08:38:05 PM
We really need to improve on the defence if we are to do it. I just cant see us keeping enough clean sheets

Agreed. Last season it was more our goals conceded rather than lack of goals scored that really set us back against those teams around us. The table doesn't lie but it appears we've done nothing to address the problem.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: OCD on August 10, 2025, 06:31:50 AM
We looked a bit better last part of the season with some good 1-0 wins (Brentford, Bournemouth, Everton).
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: cdbearsfan on August 10, 2025, 11:24:26 AM
I'm trying hard not to take this personally, lads.
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Bosco81 on August 10, 2025, 11:38:20 AM
We will finish 3rd
Title: Re: Will we qualify for the CL?
Post by: Richard E on August 10, 2025, 12:45:25 PM
Well unless they change the rules so that the Premier League champions don’t automatically qualify, the answer is self evidently yes.
SimplePortal 2.3.6 © 2008-2014, SimplePortal