Will we qualify for the CL?

[cdbearsfan]

Which makes it more annoying that they're the only team we gained on despite an excellent performance/result.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

But we don't necessarily need to finish ahead of Newcastle.

Obviously but looking at the remaining fixtures I see Chelsea and Newcastle as the most likely we can finish above. Man City after tonight have an easy run in, as do Forest. Chelsea should be out of it come the last game of the season.

After tonight, the away trip to Bournemouth looks our only real banana skin. We will have to win all our remaining games though.

[Dave]

But we don't necessarily need to finish ahead of Newcastle.

Obviously but looking at the remaining fixtures I see Chelsea and Newcastle as the most likely we can finish above. Man City after tonight have an easy run in, as do Forest. Chelsea should be out of it come the last game of the season.

I still think that if we do it (and on balance of probabilities we'll likely fall just short) then it'll be as a result of Forest bottling it rather than Newcastle bottling it.

[PaulWinch again]

Yep my point was more it’s two teams we need to leap frog. That makes it tough, so means we’re going to have to get north of 12 points to realistically do it - short of two teams falling off completely.

[Rigadon]

Easier to start the season with a points deduction I’d imagine.  Less fall out.  Which, if they get 5th at our expense, will be a kick in the nuts. 

But isn't the point of the "plan" as above to see them take the hit when they're not going to win the title anyway (so less fall out), rather than giving them a hypothetical second fallow season in a row?

I should've been clearer in that I meant the fall out on other teams - was thinking of things like lost prize money for finishing a place lower because of them being punished, or fixtures being played post-punishment being less intensely fought etc.  I think the PL will probably go for the easiest, cleanest option, which I would think is everyone starting the season knowing the drill.  Or, more probably, they'll just get a fine. 

[PeterWithesShin]

12 points will be enough.

[eamonn]

Is the Chelsea-Forest game the only remaining head-to-head between all five competitors ?

[Somniloquism]

Is the Chelsea-Forest game the only remaining head-to-head between all five competitors ?

Well ours tonight but Chelsea also have to play Newcastle at some point as well.

[ozzjim]

But we don't necessarily need to finish ahead of Newcastle.

Obviously but looking at the remaining fixtures I see Chelsea and Newcastle as the most likely we can finish above. Man City after tonight have an easy run in, as do Forest. Chelsea should be out of it come the last game of the season.

I still think that if we do it (and on balance of probabilities we'll likely fall just short) then it'll be as a result of Forest bottling it rather than Newcastle bottling it.

Same here. Newcastle are unpredictable though, and you just don't know if our result might make them stumble. For me, 12 from the last 5 sees us scrape 5th. 11 might be enough on 68 too. Forest are awful to watch and only still in the race due to 3-4 sides simply not finishing their chances. Their keeper is single handedly getting them there at the moment.

[jon collett]

Pretty sure it’s been leaked - in reality briefed - by the Premier League that the judgment won’t come until after the season has ended.

[Brazilian Villain]

Before the Newcastle game, I thought 4 wins and a draw would be sufficient. Given the weekend's results, we probably need another 3 wins and two draws. Lose tonight, and we'll need 4 wins.

[Dave]

But we don't necessarily need to finish ahead of Newcastle.

Obviously but looking at the remaining fixtures I see Chelsea and Newcastle as the most likely we can finish above. Man City after tonight have an easy run in, as do Forest. Chelsea should be out of it come the last game of the season.

I still think that if we do it (and on balance of probabilities we'll likely fall just short) then it'll be as a result of Forest bottling it rather than Newcastle bottling it.

Same here. Newcastle are unpredictable though, and you just don't know if our result might make them stumble. For me, 12 from the last 5 sees us scrape 5th. 11 might be enough on 68 too. Forest are awful to watch and only still in the race due to 3-4 sides simply not finishing their chances. Their keeper is single handedly getting them there at the moment.

I think twelve from the last five would see us get there pretty comfortably actually. While all five teams are good(ish), I think everyone drops points stupidly somewhere, regardless of how easy their matches look.

Leicester beating Forest feels like the sort of silly result that would happen in a local derby. Chelsea also beat Forest on the last day even though they've lost a couple and are out of it by then. We concede a late equaliser against Fulham having controlled the game (a re-run of the Bournemouth home game) and stupidly capitulate to an awful Man Utd on the last day.

That kind of thing.

[LeeB]

I think if we win tonight I can't see us being stopped by anybody.

[RamboandBruno]

I think if we win tonight I can't see us being stopped by anybody.

I think man city will come out the traps from the start tonight, Peps doing the old ‘do
You want the champions league’ malarky.
But I think your right Lee, batter Newcastle and beat Man City in the space of three days, no fecker is getting near us.

[Smithy]

I really think this is going to change so much over the next three games.  The teams are all so close, that literally a single result could move you three or four places.

Tonight is really important.  I don't think we need to win it (though we're definitely capable of doing so), but lose it, and I think we'll struggle to get the 5 more points required in the last 4 games to finish above City.  Which then leaves us trying to finish ahead of two of the other three.

As others have said, win tonight, and I'll start feeling confident we can do it. 

No one is going to win every game to the end of the season (at least it would be pretty incredible if they did), more importantly, it's impossible for ALL of the teams above us to do it, given they are playing each other.  Chelsea have to play Forest AND Newcastle, Chelsea also have to play Liverpool, Newcastle have to play Arsenal as well.  After tonight, you could potentially see Man City winning every game, which is why they're favourites for top 5.

Whatever happens tonight, I suspect we're going to need some sort of result at Old Trafford on the last day.