Will we qualify for the CL?

[Mellin]

Yeah, all we have to do is not win any of our next three very difficult games and that gap is potentially gone. Let's not celebrate too hard too early.

[PeterWithesShin]

No one on here thought we were capabale of this run. Instead we were criticising Unai and Rogers each game, with a fair few thinking our time under Unai was coming to an end.

7 points is a great lead, but with 22 left it is far from being done.

[Dave]

My gut feeling is that most of those who think that it's all sewn up and we can start reminding ourselves of the words to the Champions League anthem today, are the same people who will probably insist all our players are shit and how we've blown our chance to finish in the top five if we only draw against Man Utd next weekend.

[PaulWinch again]

Quite - we’ve done brilliantly to get ourselves into this position. It’s remarkable in fact, but it’s so far from being “done”.

[eye digress]

I think we’re pretty close to getting it done.

Focus on beating United next weekend, and see how the other results go.

[Somniloquism]

When we haven't even played half a season, I don't see how we could be anywhere close to getting it done. We are making it easier for ourselves but we have 25 games to play still, not 5.

On match day 15 last season, we were 5 points ahead of Newcastle and joint 5th with Forest. Chelsea were 4 points behind Liverpool. Five games later and we were 3 points behind Newcastle who were in 5th and 8 behind Forest. Liverpool were 11 points above Chelsea. 5 games into this season and we had only earned 3 points. There is definitely a very long way to go where a lot can happen.

[PeterWithesShin]

When we haven't even played half a season, I don't see how we could be anywhere close to getting it done. We are making it easier for ourselves but we have 25 games to play still, not 5.

On match day 15 last season, we were 5 points ahead of Newcastle and joint 5th with Forest. Chelsea were 4 points behind Liverpool. Five games later and we were 3 points behind Newcastle who were in 5th and 8 behind Forest. Liverpool were 11 points above Chelsea. 5 games into this season and we had only earned 3 points. There is definitely a very long way to go where a lot can happen.

22 games left

[Smithy]

Both Liverpool and Chelsea are shorter odds than us for a top 4 finish.  Which is realistic, I think.  We're in a brilliant position, but there is still so much football to be played.  The next three games are massive, as all three are against teams with realistic Champions League ambitions.  5+ points from those games and I'd start to believe we're favourites.  Less than 3 points, and we'd be looking like an outside bet again.

That said, I'd MUCH rather be in our position than Chelsea's or Liverpool's.

[PaulWinch again]

I think we’re pretty close to getting it done.

Focus on beating United next weekend, and see how the other results go.

We’re really not. The Premier League is really hard, as demonstrated by us and Arsenal struggling past Wolves, and us battling to win today. They’re all wins, but there are very few “easy” games and it means if you’re slightly off it you can go on a run of poor results. We’re in a good spot, but we’re still going to have to do really well in the second part of the season to be in the top 5.

[adrenachrome]

I think we’re pretty close to getting it done.

Focus on beating United next weekend, and see how the other results go.

We’re really not. The Premier League is really hard, as demonstrated by us and Arsenal struggling past Wolves, and us battling to win today. They’re all wins, but there are very few “easy” games and it means if you’re slightly off it you can go on a run of poor results. We’re in a good spot, but we’re still going to have to do really well in the second part of the season to be in the top 5.

That's how I've seen it this season. There are no easy games. Every single team have quality players. Wolves are done for, but I would bet that there is a sting in their tail.

We are on a roll, and it is well deserved, but a couple of injuries could change things quickly.

[rob_bridge]

I think we’re pretty close to getting it done.

Focus on beating United next weekend, and see how the other results go.

We’re really not. The Premier League is really hard, as demonstrated by us and Arsenal struggling past Wolves, and us battling to win today. They’re all wins, but there are very few “easy” games and it means if you’re slightly off it you can go on a run of poor results. We’re in a good spot, but we’re still going to have to do really well in the second part of the season to be in the top 5.

That's how I've seen it this season. There are no easy games. Every single team have quality players. Wolves are done for, but I would bet that there is a sting in their tail.

We are on a roll, and it is well deserved, but a couple of injuries could change things quickly.

A bit more reassured in recent times with Lindelof being a decent stand in.   

[PaulWinch again]

Yeah we’ve done remarkably well and it’s scarcely believable given our start. But we’re light in terms of the squad and we’ll almost certainly go on a tough run. If we finish top 5 it’ll be a fantastic achievement - and we’ve made it possible through this sustained brilliance/resilience. We don’t have to keep being this good - if we are we’ll win the league - but we’re still going to have to be very good.

[trinityoap]

We've put ourselves in with a reasonable chance. No more, no less.

[eye digress]

I think we’re pretty close to getting it done.

Focus on beating United next weekend, and see how the other results go.

We’re really not. The Premier League is really hard, as demonstrated by us and Arsenal struggling past Wolves, and us battling to win today. They’re all wins, but there are very few “easy” games and it means if you’re slightly off it you can go on a run of poor results. We’re in a good spot, but we’re still going to have to do really well in the second part of the season to be in the top 5.

You’re missing the point.

We agree that the PL is hard, there are no easy games and we’ll have to play well for the rest of the season. I don’t think I was saying anything to the contrary.

However, if we were to beat United next weekend, and Chelsea and Liverpool get a result of some sort versus, respectively, Newcastle and Spurs, then the points gap with a couple of games short of half the season gone would be (at least and respectively) 8, 13 and 13 with 21 games to go.

Now, knowing what you know about each of those teams, and what you know about our consistency under Unai (not just this season, but the past 120 or so PL games), how likely do you think it is that they could make up that points gap over that period? That’s for the “gut feeling” assessment.

Then there’s the statistical analysis. I haven’t looked this up, but it would be interesting to know when was the last time any of those clubs had a swing of that magnitude against us over a half-season period. (At a guess, none since Unai arrived.)

Granted, the two games (after United) that take us to half way could hardly be more challenging (Chelsea, Arsenal away), and that could change the complexion of things a bit.

So maybe your trigger point might be, depending on results, next match day, or in 2 or 3 match days, or in 15 or 20 match days if things go against us in the short term.

But looked at from that angle, I don’t think it’s fanciful to say that we are pretty close.

[Smirker]

Yeah, all we have to do is not win any of our next three very difficult games and that gap is potentially gone. Let's not celebrate too hard too early.

Not gonna happen though. We won't fail to win all three of those.