Will we qualify for the CL?

[Percy McCarthy]

We don't need to finish above Newcastle, we need to finish in the top five.

The problem is that if we don't, we'll need to finish above Forest or Citeh. If Spurs don't do us a favour next Monday, then Forest's run-in looks pretty decent with some winnable games. That would just leave Citeh then.

Just give them a points deduction FFS!

[Smirker]

Forest are in freefall and I think they will shit themselves.

Chelsea are just not that good and toxicity is creeping in again for them.

It is for these reasons I believe we will now actually finish top 5. Which would be an even better achievement than last season by quite a way, imo.

[garyellis]

Forest are in freefall and I think they will shit themselves.

Chelsea are just not that good and toxicity is creeping in again for them.

It is for these reasons I believe we will now actually finish top 5. Which would be an even better achievement than last season by quite a way, imo.

My original point was they are the two clubs struggling for form. Newcastle are like us flying and City still have a lot of quality. We just need to keep going and hope it’s enough.

[Ads]

Yes. We'll finish above Forest and Chelsea. Whether we finish above Man City depends on Tuesday to a large extent, but that will be largely irrelevant to the original question.

[Dave]

F365's dive into the data...

With the Premier League securing a fifth Champions League spot for 2025/26 it means Forest (57 points), Newcastle (56), Manchester City (55), Chelsea (54) and Villa (54) will fight to join Liverpool and Arsenal in next season’s competition, with the two who miss out likely having to settle for Europa or Conference League fare.

But who should be expecting to win the race? Which side has form in their favour, or a kinder run-in? Who has already automatically added three points to their final total because they have still got to face Southampton? Let’s drill into the numbers to make a definitive prediction, even if we sadly cannot afford a supercomputer.

The remaining fixtures
Nottingham Forest – Spurs a (21st), Brentford h (May 1st), Palace a (5th), Leicester h (11th), West Ham a (18th), Chelsea h (25th)

Newcastle – Crystal Palace h (16th), Aston Villa a (19th), Ipswich h (26th), Brighton a (May 4th), Chelsea h (10th), Arsenal a (18th), Everton h (25th)

Manchester City – Everton a (19th), Aston Villa h (22nd), Wolves h (May 2nd), Southampton a (10th), Bournemouth h (18th), Fulham a (25th)

Chelsea – Fulham a (20th), Everton h (26th), Liverpool h (May 4th), Newcastle a (10th), Manchester United h (18th), Nottingham Forest a (25th)

Aston Villa – Newcastle h (19th), Manchester City a (22nd), Fulham h (3rd), Bournemouth a (10th), Spurs h (18th), Man Utd a (25th)

Other possible fixtures
Nottingham Forest and Manchester City face each other in an FA Cup semi-final on April 27. The winner will contest the FA Cup final on May 17.

Aston Villa play Crystal Palace in an FA Cup semi-final on April 26.

Chelsea play Legia Warszawa on April 17, with possible Europa Conference League semi-final games on May 1 and 8 and the final on May 28.

Which Champions League contender has the kindest run-in?
Based on the average current position of every team’s remaining opponents, some will be far happier with their schedule than others:

1) Nottingham Forest – 13.33
2) Manchester City – 12.17
3) Newcastle – 9.71
4) Aston Villa – 9.17
5) Chelsea – 7.33

It is not difficult to see why many Chelsea supporters felt their hopes realistically ended with the draws against Brentford and Ipswich, even if Enzo Maresca knows the fanbase should be blamed for both.

The Blues face three of the top four, as well as a trip to Fulham and games against Manchester United and Everton.

Chelsea are the only top-half team left on the Forest calendar, while Newcastle and Aston Villa have fairly tough assignments remaining, including a couple of games each against fellow Champions League qualification contenders.

Which Champions League contender has done best against their remaining opponents?
Far more instructive might be to consider how the Champions League contenders did in the corresponding fixtures against their remaining opponents. This is a table based on those results so far this season:

1) Nottingham Forest v Spurs, Brentford, Crystal Palace, Leicester, West Ham and Chelsea – P6 W5 D1 L0 F11 A2 Pts 16 PPG 2.66
2) Manchester City v Everton, Aston Villa, Wolves, Southampton, Bournemouth and Fulham – P6 W3 D1 L2 F9 A8 Pts 10 PPG 1.66
3) Newcastle v Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Ipswich, Brighton, Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton – P7 W3 D2 L2 F10 A4 Pts 11 PPG 1.57
4) Aston Villa v Newcastle, Manchester City, Fulham, Bournemouth, Spurs and Man Utd – P6 W2 D2 L2 F7 A10 Pts 8 PPG 1.33
5) Chelsea v Fulham, Everton, Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest – P6 W1 D3 L2 F6 A7 Pts 6 PPG 1

Forest’s record in those games would see them through comfortably; the only points they have dropped this campaign against their final opponents were in a draw with Chelsea in October.

The Blues’ hopes are again crushed by another metric, with their only win against the six teams they have left to play coming at home to a very different Newcastle side in October.

The Magpies, Manchester City and Villa all have relatively similar numbers.

Which Champions League contender is in the best form?
But neither Newcastle nor Villa will approach those run-ins with trepidation as their form is among the best in the entire Premier League, never mind this particular race.

Forest might be fearing the worst after suffering back-to-back defeats but neither Manchester City nor Chelsea have shown the level of consistency needed to actually punish any slips.

Which Champions League contender could maximise six-pointers?
There are four games left between the five Champions League contenders: Aston Villa v Newcastle on April 19; Manchester City v Aston Villa on April 22; Newcastle v Chelsea on May 19; and Nottingham Forest v Chelsea on May 25.

A mini table of Premier League results between those sides suggests two teams might be less equipped to make the most of those meetings than the other three:

1) Manchester City – P7 W4 D1 L2 F14 A5 Pts 13 PPG 1.86
2) Newcastle – P6 W3 D1 L2 F12 A11 Pts 10 PPG 1.67
3) Aston Villa – P6 W3 D0 L3 F7 A11 Pts 9 PPG 1.5
4) Chelsea – P6 W2 D1 L3 F8 A9 Pts 7 PPG 1.17
5) Nottingham Forest – P7 W2 D1 L4 F9 A14 Pts 7 PPG 1

Chelsea really might be out of it.

Which Champions League contenders still have to face any of the bottom three?
There are no easy games in the Premier League but also Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton are quite considerably worse than everyone else so any fixture list which still contains them can only be considered an advantage.

In games against Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, Manchester City, Chelsea and Aston Villa, the bottom three have a combined record of P27 W1 D3 L23 F18 A67. Ipswich account for all those non-defeats, drawing twice with Villa while holding and beating Chelsea.

So Newcastle will not make the mistake of believing three points to be guaranteed against the Tractor Boys, but they will be overwhelming favourites at St James’ Park on April 26.

The same can be said for Manchester City at relegated Southampton on May 10 and Nottingham Forest against Leicester a day later.

Who will qualify for the Champions League?
The outlook is not great for Chelsea. Already with ground to make up on the rest bar Aston Villa, the Blues have the toughest run-in, did worst in the corresponding fixtures against their remaining opponents, are the second-worst contender on form and do not face any of the bottom three – although their struggles against Ipswich indicate that might not have mattered anyway.

They will also likely have the most games to contend with in other competitions due to their progress in the Conference League.

Manchester City should finish in the top five. Their game against Southampton is a distinct advantage and their remaining fixtures are relatively kind.

It is difficult to look past Newcastle’s form, game in hand and current position, one point behind Forest with a better goal difference and a game against Ipswich to come.

Which leaves a straight shootout between former European champions Forest and Villa. The latter are also in excellent domestic form but the former have the best schedule on paper by far, a match with Leicester to come, and that points lead over everyone else.

It could well come down to Villa’s inferior goal difference of +3, which is at least ten goals worse than any other contender. Perhaps Forest v Chelsea on the final day will be something of a decider and Callum Hudson-Odoi can unleash the most muted celebration ever seen after his 90th-minute winner.

Nottingham Forest, Newcastle and Manchester City are your Champions League qualification race winners.

[PaulWinch again]

I think it’s difficult for us unless we have an incredible finish - say 5 wins from 6 - or Forest fall off a cliff and we still have a good run. Both possible, but tough.

[Rigadon]

I think that analysis is just a guess. 

[paul_e]

I think that analysis is just a guess. 

It's not a guess but it does ignore current form, which is where Forest in particular fall down.

[Jockey Randall]

I think Newcastle have booked their place with their last two results. They have a nearly fully fit squad, look full of energy which is crucial for their physical style and have serious momentum. As previously mentioned whether we finish above City is probably down to that game at their place, if they avoid defeat they should have enough to get over the line with their fixtures being decent. It feels like Chelsea's recent slip ups and overall form have made it difficult to see them making it back into the top 5.

I would say we need 3 wins and a draw minimum out of our last six:
Newcastle (H)
Man City (A)
Fulham (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Spurs (H)
Man U (A)

If we get that and get to 64 the question then becomes is do Forest have enough left in the tank to pick up 2 wins and a draw out of:
Spurs (A)
Brentford (H)
Palace (A)
Leicester (H)
West Ham (A)
Chelsea (H)

Every point is crucial now, I'm hoping they look back on not defending well against the counter in the last minute v Everton as a serious mistake.

[LeeB]

I think that analysis is just a guess. 

It's not a guess but it does ignore current form, which is where Forest in particular fall down.

Any consideration of earlier season results regarding us is misplaced as our squad is outrageously stronger than it was then.

[Somniloquism]

I think that analysis is just a guess. 

It's not a guess but it does ignore current form, which is where Forest in particular fall down.

They mention current form of us and Newcastle, but it is a one liner compared to the others with tables showing. They are right though that our GD might well be our downfall so we probably HAVE to win all our games, or at least win five including the city one and hope they drop a further 2 points.

[Brazilian Villain]

Forest had a poor result against Everton, but could easily have got a point in their loss to us. Prior to that, they had won their previous 3 league games. Monday night's game against Spurs will give us a better indication whether their form is in freefall. Either way, if they win just 3 of their last 6 games, we'll likely need to get to 67 points to be above them.

ATM I think our best bet is hoping Citeh drop points away to Everton (while we get a result against Newcastle) and then beat them next week.

[Rigadon]

Another problem with using previous results is that it ignores squeaky bum time pressure.  I back us and Newcastle

[OCD]

A lot of that analysis ignores that you get some odd results at this time of the season.

[Somniloquism]

Another problem with using previous results is that it ignores squeaky bum time pressure.  I back us and Newcastle

With Newcastle pushing over Palace, I think they are the shoo-in for third, even if they lose to us.

Something else to take into consideration is if we get to the final and Spurs are still in Europa, we will have to play them midweek before the final. If they are out we can play them midweek after. I'm sure our potential opponents will definitely move their league matches until after the final but that adds some randomness to the league placings as well.