Will we qualify for the CL?

[oldhill_avfc]

If we get 9 more points that would mean Chelsea would need to get 15 from their 7 remaining games - I can't see them averaging over 2 points a game.

[SaddVillan]

There are only 2 things to look at in the run in.
Current points
Maximum possible points.

Once our current point exceeds the maximum possible of one of our "competitors", then it's job done     

                   Current Pts   Max pts 
Arsenal        70                91
ManC           61                85
ManU           55                76
Villa              54                75
Lpool            49               70
Chel              48               69
Brent            46                67
Evert             46                67

Brentford and Everton included because .... ....You never know.

Although that "Max points" assessment is correct for each individual team in isolation (should they win all remaining games), the teams around us have to play each other, which means it's impossible for ALL of them to reach the maximum.

Chelsea v Man Utd (13th April)
Man Utd vs Liverpool (2nd May)
Liverpool vs Chelsea (9th May)

We probably want Man Utd to win both of their games, and Liverpool to beat Chelsea; that would put Chelsea's maximum points at 63.  Which means we'd need 3 wins and a draw, and we'd definitely finish above them.  And that assumes Chelsea beat Man City as well.

There are a LOT of permutations, but if we win a couple more in the next 3 league games, I think we'll be pretty much home and dry.  I still don't want to go into the last two games with a mathematical chance that we can still finish 6th.

I'm genuinely shocked how we're not only still in it, but in a decent position, given how bad our poor run actually was, but I guess it's a testament just HOW good our previous good run was.

You're 100% correct in what you say Smithy.

I kept my "analysis" nice and simple because I didn't want to include all the possible permutations and overcomplicate things. I did think about putting them in, but was sort of hoping that others on the forum would chip in and fill in the gaps so to speak.

And here's two more "facts" to be thrown into the pot:
Wins in last 7 league games:

Liverpool - 3
Chelsea - 2

So having taken everything into consideration.

Finishing 3rd/4th with a trophy should be feasible.

And if Spurs go down and Liverpool and/or Chelsea miss out in the CL then that would make the season even better.

Oh, and if C115ty got a sufficiently large points deduction and/or financial penalty to cripple them fatally next season then that really would be the cherry on top.

[Demitri_C]

Preference would be that top 5 spot is  wrapped up by burnley game then we can rest and rotate the squad for europa if qe are still in it

[eye digress]

And here's two more "facts" to be thrown into the pot:
Wins in last 7 league games:

Liverpool - 3
Chelsea - 2

Just for balance, you'd throw in the number of wins in the 7 games previous to that, too.

[Drummond]

Hang on, last week we weren't even going to finish in the European places.

And why all this doom and gloom and discounting 3rd? 😉

[eamonn]

Indeed. The from Despair to Where wailing has been manic.

[luke95]

Hang on, last week we weren't even going to finish in the European places.

And why all this doom and gloom and discounting 3rd? 😉

I'm a believer mate. 👍

[eamonn]

Smirker came back last week, I asked him to save our season. He said he'd do his best. Thanks chief.

[Garyth]

There's a lot of running that's gone through those Chelsea legs in the last two years.

I recall someone (possibly on a podcast) at the beginning of the season predicting that Chelsea would fall away towards the end or pick up injuries, as the players will have had no off-season rest at all. It seems to have come to fruition, despite their squad appearing so big.

It's crazy to me that some top level players will end up playing pretty much 3 seasons in a row without decent rest - I dread to think what fifa/uefa will dream up for them to do next summer.

[Brend'Watkins]

Chelsea have enough quality players for at least two teams so I’m not going to lament their lack of rest over the summer, but hay, they’re world club champions aren’t they. So it’s all been worth knackering your players for the season ahead at what is no more than a friendly tournament makes it all worthwhile. Mugs!

[paul_e]

Chelsea have enough quality players for at least two teams so I’m not going to lament their lack of rest over the summer, but hay, they’re world club champions aren’t they. So it’s all been worth knackering your players for the season ahead at what is no more than a friendly tournament makes it all worthwhile. Mugs!

The £100m-ish in prize money probably helped them a lot though but yeah, the competition is clearly bullshit.

[cdbearsfan]

There's a lot of running that's gone through those Chelsea legs in the last two years.

I recall someone (possibly on a podcast) at the beginning of the season predicting that Chelsea would fall away towards the end or pick up injuries, as the players will have had no off-season rest at all. It seems to have come to fruition, despite their squad appearing so big.

It's crazy to me that some top level players will end up playing pretty much 3 seasons in a row without decent rest - I dread to think what fifa/uefa will dream up for them to do next summer.

Could be worse, Bodø/Glimt haven't had a month off since 2022.

[Garyth]

Chelsea have enough quality players for at least two teams so I’m not going to lament their lack of rest over the summer, but hay, they’re world club champions aren’t they. So it’s all been worth knackering your players for the season ahead at what is no more than a friendly tournament makes it all worthwhile. Mugs!

You say that, but I think there's a difference between having a lot of players and having 'quality' - I think they only have about 13 'quality' outfielders. And most are pretty young - if you're relying on Enzo and Cucurella to be your level headed senior pros, then something isn't right.

Fully agree on having no sympathy, however.

[paul_e]

Chelsea have enough quality players for at least two teams so I’m not going to lament their lack of rest over the summer, but hay, they’re world club champions aren’t they. So it’s all been worth knackering your players for the season ahead at what is no more than a friendly tournament makes it all worthwhile. Mugs!

You say that, but I think there's a difference between having a lot of players and having 'quality' - I think they only have about 13 'quality' outfielders. And most are pretty young - if you're relying on Enzo and Cucurella to be your level headed senior pros, then something isn't right.

Fully agree on having no sympathy, however.

Yep, the recent signings by Chelsea (and by that I mean in the last 3-4 years) all have the feel of them wanting to do a higher quality version of Brighton and just keep feeding young players in with the hop of selling a few to pay for the next wave. It might work eventually but it means their squad is in constant churn and that's not usually a good idea. Including the 4 they've already signed for next season they're up to about 50 players in 4 years now, that's clearly unsustainable and, right now, has them out of pocket by the best part of £700m (not including signing fees, agent fees or wages).

Joke of  aclub who have completely taken the piss both with the previous owner and this lot and really should've had a much bigger punishment for the blatant cheating even if they reported on themselves.

[Ads]

Perry article in the Telegraph about us being in pole position again for the CL.