Will we qualify for the CL?

[oldhill_avfc]

If we get 9 more points that would mean Chelsea would need to get 15 from their 7 remaining games - I can't see them averaging over 2 points a game.

[SaddVillan]

There are only 2 things to look at in the run in.
Current points
Maximum possible points.

Once our current point exceeds the maximum possible of one of our "competitors", then it's job done     

                   Current Pts   Max pts 
Arsenal        70                91
ManC           61                85
ManU           55                76
Villa              54                75
Lpool            49               70
Chel              48               69
Brent            46                67
Evert             46                67

Brentford and Everton included because .... ....You never know.

Although that "Max points" assessment is correct for each individual team in isolation (should they win all remaining games), the teams around us have to play each other, which means it's impossible for ALL of them to reach the maximum.

Chelsea v Man Utd (13th April)
Man Utd vs Liverpool (2nd May)
Liverpool vs Chelsea (9th May)

We probably want Man Utd to win both of their games, and Liverpool to beat Chelsea; that would put Chelsea's maximum points at 63.  Which means we'd need 3 wins and a draw, and we'd definitely finish above them.  And that assumes Chelsea beat Man City as well.

There are a LOT of permutations, but if we win a couple more in the next 3 league games, I think we'll be pretty much home and dry.  I still don't want to go into the last two games with a mathematical chance that we can still finish 6th.

I'm genuinely shocked how we're not only still in it, but in a decent position, given how bad our poor run actually was, but I guess it's a testament just HOW good our previous good run was.

You're 100% correct in what you say Smithy.

I kept my "analysis" nice and simple because I didn't want to include all the possible permutations and overcomplicate things. I did think about putting them in, but was sort of hoping that others on the forum would chip in and fill in the gaps so to speak.

And here's two more "facts" to be thrown into the pot:
Wins in last 7 league games:

Liverpool - 3
Chelsea - 2

So having taken everything into consideration.

Finishing 3rd/4th with a trophy should be feasible.

And if Spurs go down and Liverpool and/or Chelsea miss out in the CL then that would make the season even better.

Oh, and if C115ty got a sufficiently large points deduction and/or financial penalty to cripple them fatally next season then that really would be the cherry on top.

[Demitri_C]

Preference would be that top 5 spot is  wrapped up by burnley game then we can rest and rotate the squad for europa if qe are still in it

[eye digress]

And here's two more "facts" to be thrown into the pot:
Wins in last 7 league games:

Liverpool - 3
Chelsea - 2

Just for balance, you'd throw in the number of wins in the 7 games previous to that, too.

[Drummond]

Hang on, last week we weren't even going to finish in the European places.

And why all this doom and gloom and discounting 3rd? 😉

[eamonn]

Indeed. The from Despair to Where wailing has been manic.

[luke95]

Hang on, last week we weren't even going to finish in the European places.

And why all this doom and gloom and discounting 3rd? 😉

I'm a believer mate. 👍

[eamonn]

Smirker came back last week, I asked him to save our season. He said he'd do his best. Thanks chief.