Will we qualify for the CL?

[Smithy]

After a lifetime following this team, I still won't feel comfortable until we have those 6 points in the bag (or the other teams chasing have done the work for us by losing/drawing their games, and reducing our magic number to something we already have).

Losing out on goal difference last year also makes me fearful, so the sooner we get those points, the better.  I know it's ALMOST there.  But 'almost' isn't going to loosen the sphincter.

[PaulWinch again]

Yep it’s nearly done, but it’s not done. We need to finish the job.

[Keeno]

3 points from Fulham, Spurs and Burnley - and one draw from Brighton in their remaining 4, and it's done.

[eamonn]

Our goal difference is dismal under Emery, we win a lot of games on the tight margins, (a Meatball bum-shuffle usually) so it would be cruel to miss-out again because of it.

[Dave]

Our goal difference is dismal under Emery, we win a lot of games on the tight margins, (a Meatball bum-shuffle usually) so it would be cruel to miss-out again because of it.

It's pretty hard to see which other side is pushing us down to sixth place on goal difference.

[baddowvillans]

Only 2 points needed for Champions League.  I asked GPT how many times 60 points had not been good enough for at least 5th place in the Premier League.  The response in full is below but the short answer is NEVER has a team accumulated 60 points and not finished at least 5th

In English top-flight football (specifically the Premier League era), 60 points has always been enough to finish in the top 5.
So the direct answer is:
👉 0 times — it has never happened.
Context
The Premier League has been played since 1992–93.
A points total of 60 is generally a strong season, typically placing a team somewhere between 4th and 6th, but never outside the top 5.
Even in highly competitive seasons where the top teams rack up big points totals, the drop-off below the top 4/5 means 60 still holds up.
Why 60 is usually safe
There’s typically a gap between the elite clubs and the rest.
Mid-table teams rarely reach 60+ points consistently.
The spread of results (wins/draws/losses) across 38 games makes 60 a relatively high benchmark.

[eamonn]

Our goal difference is dismal under Emery, we win a lot of games on the tight margins, (a Meatball bum-shuffle usually) so it would be cruel to miss-out again because of it.

It's pretty hard to see which other side is pushing us down to sixth place on goal difference.

Yeah but it's Villa we're talking about.

[Brend'Watkins]

Our goal difference is dismal under Emery, we win a lot of games on the tight margins, (a Meatball bum-shuffle usually) so it would be cruel to miss-out again because of it.

It's pretty hard to see which other side is pushing us down to sixth place on goal difference.

Yeah but it's Villa we're talking about.

Now Ollie has re-found his MoJo that issue should be sorted.

[Keeno]

Don't think GD will matter at all this year.

Despite Newcastle being in poor form you could easily see Brighton going to St James and getting a draw. Brighton also have to go to Elland Road against Leeds who are in decent form.

If they do that and we beat one of Fulham, Spurs or Burnley, no team can mathematically catch us and top 5 is secure.

[brontebilly]

I think we will beat Fulham at weekend to put it beyond the chasing pack. Fulham have increasingly less to play for and Marco Silva I think will be off elsewhere in the summer. We are creating loads of chances in recent games and it's the ideal game for us.

[Smithy]

Our goal difference is dismal under Emery, we win a lot of games on the tight margins, (a Meatball bum-shuffle usually) so it would be cruel to miss-out again because of it.

It's pretty hard to see which other side is pushing us down to sixth place on goal difference.

I agree it's unlikely, but it's a nagging doubt (probably some form of football support PTSD from last season).  Chelsea and Brighton already have a better goal difference than us, and Brentford's is only 2 worse, so if any of those teams WERE to make up the points difference on us, you'd have to assume a goal difference swing in their favour, so all three COULD match our points total with a better goal difference.

Again, I don't think it will happen, I'm just assuming that if the worst does happen, and someone matches our points total, goal difference is unlikely to be in our favour.

[cdbearsfan]

Is it safe to rest players against Fulham to make sure they're all fit to face Forest and relegate Tottenham, yet? If there is going to be a sixth English Champions League team, would much rather it was Fulham than Chelsea or Brentford (or Forest, obvs).