Will we qualify for the CL?

[Brazilian Villain]

Or, if not that, hatred of Man City will do just as well. Come on you Cherry Cottagers!

[Drummond]

so this week, we are mostly supporting:

Bournemouth
Villa
Forest / Fulham

in that order ?

And Liverpool tonight so Bournemouth can finish ahead of Brighton.

And Everton.

[cdbearsfan]

so this week, we are mostly supporting:

Bournemouth
Villa
Forest / Fulham

in that order ?

Yes, although I think if Bournemouth beat Man City then we'd be better off supporting Chelsea against Forest.

[LeeS]

so this week, we are mostly supporting:

Bournemouth
Villa
Forest / Fulham

in that order ?

Yes, although I think if Bournemouth beat Man City then we'd be better off supporting Chelsea against Forest.

Oh Jesus. This is too complicated

[Brazilian Villain]

If Bournemouth beat Citeh, we just need to worry about winning our game.

[algy]

VILLA WIN
Qualify if any of the following happen:
Chelsea fail to beat Forest (a)
Newcastle fail to beat Everton (h)
Man City lose either of their remaining games, or draw both - Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)

VILLA DRAW
Qualify if either of the following happen:
Newcastle lose to Everton
Man City take a maximum of one point from their remaining games

VILLA LOSE
Qualify if both of the following happen:
Chelsea beat Forest
Man City lose both their remaining games

Right, I'm taking this as what I want it:

- We beat Manchester United by a cricket score.  5-0 would take us ahead of Forest on goal difference, so that's a good start..
- Manchester City to lose both of their games
- Everton beat Newcastle
- Forest do the same thing as we do - so if we win, they win.  If we lose, they lose.  If we draw, they draw.  Obviously we're winning at least 6-0, so I'll let them win 1-0.

[cdbearsfan]

If Bournemouth beat Citeh, we just need to worry about winning our game.

Yep. The Forest vs Chelsea game would become irrelevant to us in terms of Champions League. Win and in.

If we draw, one of Forest or Chelsea will finish below us and one above, regardless of the result there.

However, defeat would see us below Forest if they avoid defeat which would cost us any chance of Champions League and see us drop all the way into the Conference League if Man City avoid defeat against Fulham.

So in the unlikely event that Bournemouth beat Man City there is no significant benefit to us from Forest avoiding defeat against Chelsea, but we would benefit from Chelsea winning if we lost.

[cdbearsfan]

VILLA WIN
Qualify if any of the following happen:
Chelsea fail to beat Forest (a)
Newcastle fail to beat Everton (h)
Man City lose either of their remaining games, or draw both - Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)

VILLA DRAW
Qualify if either of the following happen:
Newcastle lose to Everton
Man City take a maximum of one point from their remaining games

VILLA LOSE
Qualify if both of the following happen:
Chelsea beat Forest
Man City lose both their remaining games

Right, I'm taking this as what I want it:

- We beat Manchester United by a cricket score.  5-0 would take us ahead of Forest on goal difference, so that's a good start..
- Manchester City to lose both of their games
- Everton beat Newcastle
- Forest do the same thing as we do - so if we win, they win.  If we lose, they lose.  If we draw, they draw.  Obviously we're winning at least 6-0, so I'll let them win 1-0.

We are already a point clear of Forest so goal difference is irrelevant if we win.

[algy]

VILLA WIN
Qualify if any of the following happen:
Chelsea fail to beat Forest (a)
Newcastle fail to beat Everton (h)
Man City lose either of their remaining games, or draw both - Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)

VILLA DRAW
Qualify if either of the following happen:
Newcastle lose to Everton
Man City take a maximum of one point from their remaining games

VILLA LOSE
Qualify if both of the following happen:
Chelsea beat Forest
Man City lose both their remaining games

Right, I'm taking this as what I want it:

- We beat Manchester United by a cricket score.  5-0 would take us ahead of Forest on goal difference, so that's a good start..
- Manchester City to lose both of their games
- Everton beat Newcastle
- Forest do the same thing as we do - so if we win, they win.  If we lose, they lose.  If we draw, they draw.  Obviously we're winning at least 6-0, so I'll let them win 1-0.

We are already a point clear of Forest so goal difference is irrelevant if we win.

I don't care ... I want to be ahead of them on goal difference as well, just to prove our superiority. 

Get 7-0 and we increase the record for their biggest ever home defeat (6-0 in 1914, by us).
Reach 8-0 and we beat the record for their biggest ever defeat home or away (7-0 - also us - 1930).

I'd like 12-0 or so, so that we can catch up with Newcastle and Chelsea.  Should be easy enough.

[eye digress]

Given the risk of us ending up in the Conference League, would anyone cash in right now with a place in the Europa League?

Nope, the difference in prize money between Conference and Europa is about £10m. The difference between Champions League and Europa is about £30-40m.

Is that the difference between the bog standard participation package?

What's the difference between, say, qualifying for the last 16 in the CL and winning the Europa?

[cdbearsfan]

VILLA WIN
Qualify if any of the following happen:
Chelsea fail to beat Forest (a)
Newcastle fail to beat Everton (h)
Man City lose either of their remaining games, or draw both - Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)

VILLA DRAW
Qualify if either of the following happen:
Newcastle lose to Everton
Man City take a maximum of one point from their remaining games

VILLA LOSE
Qualify if both of the following happen:
Chelsea beat Forest
Man City lose both their remaining games

Right, I'm taking this as what I want it:

- We beat Manchester United by a cricket score.  5-0 would take us ahead of Forest on goal difference, so that's a good start..
- Manchester City to lose both of their games
- Everton beat Newcastle
- Forest do the same thing as we do - so if we win, they win.  If we lose, they lose.  If we draw, they draw.  Obviously we're winning at least 6-0, so I'll let them win 1-0.

We are already a point clear of Forest so goal difference is irrelevant if we win.

I don't care ... I want to be ahead of them on goal difference as well, just to prove our superiority. 

Get 7-0 and we increase the record for their biggest ever home defeat (6-0 in 1914, by us).
Reach 8-0 and we beat the record for their biggest ever defeat home or away (7-0 - also us - 1930).

I'd like 12-0 or so, so that we can catch up with Newcastle and Chelsea.  Should be easy enough.

You've convinced me. I now fully support this plan and have forwarded the instructions to Unai.

[john e]

I’ve always hated these hypotheticals because they’re a load of bollocks
Having said that I’m now going to ask one because I’m a massive hypocrite

Which option would you choose

1 - Champions League football again and take our chances
2  - guaranteed Europa conference league winners

[eye digress]

In the four Premier League games Isak has missed this season, Newcastle have scored once. That was an Anthony Gordon penalty in a draw.

It does not bode well for a final day the Magpies must already be dreading. Callum Wilson against the single most motivated form of Jordan Pickford there has ever been feels like a mismatch.

Let's hope the Newcastle physios are having an off-week.

Isak usually misses a few weeks with those groin strains, which seem to occur pretty frequently with him.

Given that there must be a chance he will be thinking he's on his way this summer, you'd wonder whether he would be wanting to take many risks with his fitness going into the day...

[Dave]

Given the risk of us ending up in the Conference League, would anyone cash in right now with a place in the Europa League?

Nope, the difference in prize money between Conference and Europa is about £10m. The difference between Champions League and Europa is about £30-40m.

Is that the difference between the bog standard participation package?

What's the difference between, say, qualifying for the last 16 in the CL and winning the Europa?

We've taken home about £70m in prize money by getting to the quarter-finals (knock ten million off that if you want the R16 figure) The winner of the Europa League will end up making around £25m total prize money, runner-up around £15m.

[Drummond]

VILLA WIN
Qualify if any of the following happen:
Chelsea fail to beat Forest (a)
Newcastle fail to beat Everton (h)
Man City lose either of their remaining games, or draw both - Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)

VILLA DRAW
Qualify if either of the following happen:
Newcastle lose to Everton
Man City take a maximum of one point from their remaining games

VILLA LOSE
Qualify if both of the following happen:
Chelsea beat Forest
Man City lose both their remaining games

Right, I'm taking this as what I want it:

- We beat Manchester United by a cricket score.  5-0 would take us ahead of Forest on goal difference, so that's a good start..
- Manchester City to lose both of their games
- Everton beat Newcastle
- Forest do the same thing as we do - so if we win, they win.  If we lose, they lose.  If we draw, they draw.  Obviously we're winning at least 6-0, so I'll let them win 1-0.

We are already a point clear of Forest so goal difference is irrelevant if we win.

I don't care ... I want to be ahead of them on goal difference as well, just to prove our superiority. 

Get 7-0 and we increase the record for their biggest ever home defeat (6-0 in 1914, by us).
Reach 8-0 and we beat the record for their biggest ever defeat home or away (7-0 - also us - 1930).

I'd like 12-0 or so, so that we can catch up with Newcastle and Chelsea.  Should be easy enough.

They'd fucking score in the 102nd minute.