Will we qualify for the CL?

[cdbearsfan]

We are 8/1 odds ON to finish top five. We are 5/4 odds against to win the Europa League. So league is a much better chance going via the algorithm of gamblers.

[Brazilian Villain]

We are 8/1 odds ON to finish top five. We are 5/4 odds against to win the Europa League. So league is a much better chance going via the algorithm of gamblers.

14/1 on with Paddy Power. 8/15 to finish top 4.

[cdbearsfan]

Any bookies offering odds on NOT finishing top five? Can't find it on Bet365 or Skybet. I'm banned from Paddy Power for some reason.

[Dave]

Any bookies offering odds on NOT finishing top five? Can't find it on Bet365 or Skybet. I'm banned from Paddy Power for some reason.

Do a bet builder on all of Man Utd / Chelsea / Liverpool finishing top five?

Gives that slim Everton / Brentford risk, but it would otherwise amount to the same thing.

[cdbearsfan]

I don't think I can take that risk, you know my fear of jinxing. I messaged Bet365 to ask them to add a not top five market.

[Brazilian Villain]

We are 8/1 odds ON to finish top five. We are 5/4 odds against to win the Europa League. So league is a much better chance going via the algorithm of gamblers.

14/1 on with Paddy Power. 8/15 to finish top 4.

Also, Football Rankings give us a 41% chance of winning the Europa League, but a 94% chance of finishing top 5.

[dave.woodhall]

We're 5/4 to finish outside the top four.

[Garyth]

The attitude that the Conference League is not worth qualifying for pisses me off but it's understandable given the SCR restrictions. There's something fundamentally wrong with the rules if teams don't want to qualify for a competition that is meant to be a reward for good performance. Is this just an English problem because teams are also trying to keep up in the PL? Part of me thinks that the dominant teams from smaller associations must be stretched pretty thin with wages too, although the UEFA prize money will be more significant to them of course.

As I read it, the Conference league is (offically) designed to give teams in mid-tier countries something to play for (as their top teams are unlikely to make it through CL qualifying). For most of the teams in it , the competition would be seen as exciting/challenging to be involved in. The fact that the 7th(ish) best team in England has vastly superior revenues skews it.

Ideally a bigger chunk of UEFA money would be diverted to prize money to start to even out resources... but does anyone think the top clubs are going to let that happen.

[Garyth]

They'd be fined massively and banned from future European competitions so that won't happen. 50,000 people a game plus sponsorship and prize money and they would still be far better off in the Conference League than not in Europe at all.

Well, yeah in practice they wouldn't actually follow though (maybe send youth squads, if they're not Chelsea who can have 2x first team squads).

But it'd be kind of funny on the last PL matchday to see teams actively trying to avoid the position that forces them into the conference league.

[andyh]

Chelsea will lose today, heavily I hope.

Surely a win at Forest will pretty much wrap up a top 5 spot ? Although I still think we’ll finish 3rd.

[algy]

Ideally a bigger chunk of UEFA money would be diverted to prize money to start to even out resources... but does anyone think the top clubs are going to let that happen.

The problem is that whatever you do, it causes issues.

Concentrate money at the top? You end up creating an elite that’s near impossible to dislodge

Spread money around? Non-Premier League clubs drift even further away from the financial power of the PL clubs (+ Real Madrid & Barcelona). Also you can see in countries like Wales, TNS qualifying for Europe every season means they absolutely dominate the Welsh league purely because they’re the only club who can realistically have professional players. Increasing the share further down will, somewhat ironically, destroy the national competition at that level.

IMO the only way to solve it is to have some kind of “tax” on football club revenues, which then gets redistributed to strengthen *all* leagues. Though quite obviously England, Germany, Spain, Italy, and France would have absolutely no reason to support such a change as it’d actively sabotage those leagues.

[Brend'Watkins]

Yeah, I'd say the league is definitely easier considering our points advantage.

You say that but I see it as 7 games to go in the league and 3 and a half in the Europa with the half favouring us.

[Flamingo Lane]

Winning the Europa and finishing top five means letting Chelsea or Liverpool into the CL through the back door, right? In the word of Dogtanian (H&Ver, not the muskahound), Grrr...

If it's fifth, yes. If it's fourth or higher, no.

That's actually just spoiled my morning.

[PeterWithesShin]

From the position we're in the league is far easier. We can to have a couple of bad games and still piss top 5. A 4-0 pasting with the ref having a mare, easy to overcome. In the Europa there's not that leeway, as we know from Olympiacos if you fuck one game up it's over.