Will we qualify for the CL?

[PaulWinch again]

'tanian has probably crunched the numbers on this - are we more likely to finish 6th or 7th tomorrow?

Well we entirely control that. If we win we can’t finish worse than 6th.

[Dogtanian]

'tanian has probably crunched the numbers on this - are we more likely to finish 6th or 7th tomorrow?

I have indeed.

As it stands today, there are 81 permutations remaining. The percentage showing us finishing per position, are;

3rd 4.9%
4th 14.8%
5th 22.2%
6th 35.8%
7th 22.2%

[dave.woodhall]

Yeah - Brentford, Brighton, Bournemouth, Fulham and Palace are the least "mid-table fodder" I can remember the PL having. They all have really good players and top-class managers.

We talked about this a few years ago - how TV money has levelled the playing field for smaller clubs who manage to stay up for a couple of years. Much as it's funny, there's no way Manchester United and Spurs would have finished where they will ten years ago.

[edgysatsuma89]

Yeah, the league is definitely stronger as a whole. It's also why the promoted teams are really beginning to struggle. I think we may have also seen the end of teams getting around 100 points, for a time, anyway.

[lovejoy]

'tanian has probably crunched the numbers on this - are we more likely to finish 6th or 7th tomorrow?

I have indeed.

As it stands today, there are 81 permutations remaining. The percentage showing us finishing per position, are;

3rd 4.9%
4th 14.8%
5th 22.2%
6th 35.8%
7th 22.2%

Again this assumes each result is equally likely, which is a false premise. Although the results are not dissimilar to those assigning likelihood (bookies).

[Brazilian Villain]

Yeah, the league is definitely stronger as a whole. It's also why the promoted teams are really beginning to struggle. I think we may have also seen the end of teams getting around 100 points, for a time, anyway.

Earlier I looked up when Sunderland were last in the PL. They were relegated and finished bottom in 2017 with 24 points, then Boro with 28, and Hull with 34 points. 2 of the 3 promoted teams were relegated (Boro and Hull) but were clearly more competitive.

[VillaTim]

Would be interesting to see where Leicester Southampton Ipswich picked up their points this season , any correlation, off each other etc. We only dropped points to Ipswich .

[Bent Neilsens Screamer]

Just done my sky soccer 6 and when you click on the popular button to see how other people have predicted it’s got us at 78% of people thinking we’ll win, 39% think Forest will, with 31% going with Chelsea and the remaining thinking draw.
Hopefully the masses are correct.

[Percy McCarthy]

I think a lot depends on the ref in the Forest game. If he lets them kick fuck out of Chelsea, Forest should win. If he starts showering them with yellow cards, it would take a lot from their normal game.

[rougegorge]

'tanian has probably crunched the numbers on this - are we more likely to finish 6th or 7th tomorrow?

Well we entirely control that. If we win we can’t finish worse than 6th.

If we draw we can't finish worse than 6th either

[mike]

'tanian has probably crunched the numbers on this - are we more likely to finish 6th or 7th tomorrow?

I have indeed.

As it stands today, there are 81 permutations remaining. The percentage showing us finishing per position, are;

3rd 4.9%
4th 14.8%
5th 22.2%
6th 35.8%
7th 22.2%

I did this many years ago with our odds of getting into UEFA. Very few options had us not qualifying. Then Darren Ambrose scored a scrappy free kick and we didn’t qualify.

[Dogtanian]

I did this many years ago with our odds of getting into UEFA. Very few options had us not qualifying. Then Darren Ambrose scored a scrappy free kick and we didn’t qualify.

It’s a funny old game, innit!

[eamonn]

Vaguely rings a bell...what season was that? One of the O'Dreary ones I assume. Actually, the season we finished 6th under him, we didn't get Europe, did we?

[Mellin]

Yeah. I'm guessing it was the close run thing with Liverpool and someone else, probably Newcastle, in 2004 under O'Leary. I remember the year because Liverpool finished fourth and that led to Istanbul

Definitely no Europe as O'Neill's Moscow was the first run since Gregory when we lost to whoever it was after Atletico Madrid. Celta Vigo?

Edit: Not true. Forgot NK fucking Varteks. Haven't heard of them before or since.

Edit2: Just googled and Varteks folded 10 years ago.

[Percy McCarthy]

Everton have got no chance without Big Ears and Branthwaite.

(Please let this post be mocked within an inch of its life at around 6pm tonight).