Will we qualify for the CL?

[Mellin]

Just flashed up on Sky that Opta give us 21.6% chance, which feels about right.

That'll go right up with a couple of favourable results tomorrow/Monday.

[Dave]

Just flashed up on Sky that Opta give us 21.6% chance, which feels about right.

That'll go right up with a couple of favourable results tomorrow/Monday.

I think it was around 8% a week ago. Every extra win will stick another 10% or so on it.

[Mellin]

Southampton next week. Win that and we might be touching 40% with a couple of favourable results elsewhere. Plus, all this talk of how difficult our run in is...two of the top eight now?

Said a couple of weeks ago we'll see after Brighton and Forest. Well, we've won them both...and I haven't got a fucking clue. Starting to feel the faith though.

[Mellin]

Second in the league since 4th Feb. Everything's coming up Millhouse.

[Dave]

Southampton next week. Win that and we might be touching 40% with a couple of favourable results elsewhere.

Think we all know what the Villa way is though.

[Mellin]

Please God, no. Just no.

[Smithy]

Second in the league since 4th Feb. Everything's coming up Millhouse.

The difference this year compared to last year is pretty profound. Last year we felt like we were limping to the finishing line. Often playing the same line-up week in week out (because we had to).

This year we can make EIGHT changes, and still put out a really strong team and beat the team that's currently 3rd in the league.

No one, and I really mean no one, will want to play us right now.

It does feel like something has to go wrong at some point, and though our winning run is now 7 in all competitions, it WILL come to an end sooner or later.  If it's going to end, I'd  like it to end with a draw in Paris, and then back to winning ways against Southampton in the league - but we'll see!

[paul_e]

Before last 2 games I thought we'd need 20 from 27. I think we need 14 from 21 now. Maybe 15.

Depends on whether Forest fold or not. Cit-eh have easiest fixtures. Toon I expect to finish above us too.

We need big favours tomorrow from the West London Bees and the Satanic herd.

I reckon that's about right, given how many of the teams involved have to play each other I think 64 points might be enough and 66 is pretty much guaranteed top5.

[Brazilian Villain]

It does feel like something has to go wrong at some point, and though our winning run is now 7 in all competitions, it WILL come to an end sooner or later.  If it's going to end, I'd  like it to end with a draw in Paris, and then back to winning ways against Southampton in the league - but we'll see!

Even a one goal defeat in Paris would give us a chance in the 2nd leg. Dropping points to Soton would be a pisser though.

[Dave]

I reckon that's about right, given how many of the teams involved have to play each other I think 64 points might be enough and 66 is pretty much guaranteed top5.

The Forest forum I was reading the other day had a Champions League qualification thread (obviously) and there were a few posts about some boffins running thousands of simulations for the end of the season, like we were talking about on here for top eight in the Champions League.

64 points was their figure that was apparently good enough for fifth 99% of the time.

[paul_e]

Second in the league since 4th Feb. Everything's coming up Millhouse.

The difference this year compared to last year is pretty profound. Last year we felt like we were limping to the finishing line. Often playing the same line-up week in week out (because we had to).

This year we can make EIGHT changes, and still put out a really strong team and beat the team that's currently 3rd in the league.

No one, and I really mean no one, will want to play us right now.

It does feel like something has to go wrong at some point, and though our winning run is now 7 in all competitions, it WILL come to an end sooner or later.  If it's going to end, I'd  like it to end with a draw in Paris, and then back to winning ways against Southampton in the league - but we'll see!

Chelsea look like we did last year, I'd be surprised if they're in the mix with a couple to go, too many of their players look knackered or out of form.

[paul_e]

I reckon that's about right, given how many of the teams involved have to play each other I think 64 points might be enough and 66 is pretty much guaranteed top5.

The Forest forum I was reading the other day had a Champions League qualification thread (obviously) and there were a few posts about some boffins running thousands of simulations for the end of the season, like we were talking about on here for top eight in the Champions League.

64 points was their figure that was apparently good enough for fifth 99% of the time.

Yep, most seasons I'd be confident about it but with the 3 shit teams at the bottom and only really Liverpool running away at the top there's a few more points up for grabs this year than normal.

[Rigadon]

Need the lower mid table clubs to be plucky today and pick up wins. 

[dave.woodhall]

Southampton next week. Win that and we might be touching 40% with a couple of favourable results elsewhere.

Think we all know what the Villa way is though.

Was. Was the Villa way.

[Dave]

Nah, even this version still feels like it wants to dip its toes into the old ways every now and again.

We still seem very capable of turning the euphoria of finishing in the top eight of the Champions League into a meek defeat to a Wolves side that had lost their last four league matches.

Or celebrating nine points out of nine in the Champions League and one of our best performances of the season against Bologna by not winning any of our next eight games.

If we lose on Wednesday I'm pretty sure we'll do Southampton comfortably. If we win or draw, I reckon Southampton will be at least one point closer to matching Derby's record.