Summer 2024 Transfer Window - hopes, speculation, rumours etc.

[pablo_picasso]

Paul Robinson makes me laugh saying villa will sell JJ and luiz for 100m 😂 luiz alone is close to 100m

Especially as apparently, in his expertise as both an accountant, along with being an FFP/PSR expert, we have to sell both to satisfy FFP/PSR based on one years worth of accounts that the media have scrutinised as the full FFP/PSR period...

Im no expert in either of those things, but as far as I was aware, FFP/PSR was based on three years worth of accounts...

It is, but the loss allowed is accumulated over those three years, and the amount allowed is less than we've just registered in one single season.

That means, ultimately, more money is going to have to come into the club than goes out, somehow.

There's only way we can really do that and that involves recouping significantly more in sales than we spend.

I think we'll sell Dougie. Will go for a big number, been here long enough to be fully amortised so he'd be all profit.

Not Digne? Coutinho? Dendoncker? Big wages off the books.

How much do we save by not signing Zaniolo?

Maybe selling Tielemans? He should be all profit & he offers little to average overall performances, bar the odd decent one...

I would 100% sell Tielemans before Ramsey or Douglas Luiz...

Like I say, Im not a financial expert, so I would bow to greater knowledge & experience than my own, but I don't think hitting FFP/PSR/etc targets is just down to selling Ramsey or Luiz.

Those are just the easy names to come up with when looking at the worst case scenario, which is exactly what the media, especially that absolute toilet of news 'football insider" will do for clicks & ad revenue...

I don't think it absolutely has to be Ramsey and/or Luiz, but it's going to have to be someone who is going to bring in a decent fee.

There is no other way, I mean other than selling at least on every good player, we can realistically shift our numbers by anything approaching 100m.

We're not saving anything by not signing Zaniolo, because we'll only have paid a loan fee. It will make a difference because it's money we won't be spending, but it is not money already spent so not shifting any figures.

Incidentally, this is - going back to an old discussion - exactly why we sold Archer and Ramsey junior. If Archer comes back, he'll absolutely be punted straight back out elsewhere again, too, for the same reason.

Mr E. mentioned & reminded me about Buendia, he's another we could sell.

It's not like we have really missed him this year. Digne, Tielemans & Buendia should cover any potential FFP/PSR issues.

And that way, we are not selling our best players to our competitors, strengthening them & weakening us.

Are they going to reach £100M?

I doubt it...

Is £100M the target?

Or just more media doom & gloom?

[Brazilian Villain]

Perce, why aren't you in Finance?

His personality's too vibrant.

[Dogtanian]

We have missed Buendia. He plays at a high pace, he’s aggressive and wins the ball back, and he plays quick, accurate passes through the opposition.

We don’t have anyone else like that and he’d have been a great option to have this season.

[Percy McCarthy]

Perce, why aren't you in Finance?

How kind. I’m very much a layman mate, and I think only really interested in it as it pertains to Villa and my own share dealings.

[AV82EC]

I’m on the more Percy optimistic side of this debate, I don’t think we’re going to have to sell anybody significant this summer and that’s especially true if we qualify in either 4th or 5th for the Champs League. That doesn’t  mean we won’t sell anyone if we receive the right offer or if that person wants to leave as player trading can help the FFP equation as much as any other factor.

As for some of the speculation in the media I’d suggest many pundits know far less about the whys and wherefores of AVFCs turnover, P&L and balance sheet than your average punter on here, they just see the headline £130m loss and come up with the “need to sell” talking point. It’s the usual lazy journalism and know nothing talking heads who can’t be arsed to look outside the usual 6 clubs because that might involve actually doing some research.

[pauliewalnuts]

I’m on the more Percy optimistic side of this debate, I don’t think we’re going to have to sell anybody significant this summer and that’s especially true if we qualify in either 4th or 5th for the Champs League. That doesn’t  mean we won’t sell anyone if we receive the right offer or if that person wants to leave as player trading can help the FFP equation as much as any other factor.

As for some of the speculation in the media I’d suggest many pundits know far less about the whys and wherefores of AVFCs turnover, P&L and balance sheet than your average punter on here, they just see the headline £130m loss and come up with the “need to sell” talking point. It’s the usual lazy journalism and know nothing talking heads who can’t be arsed to look outside the usual 6 clubs because that might involve actually doing some research.

It's not really, though. It's pretty plain in those figures. UEFA reckon we've recorded the biggest loss in Europe.

I trust the powers that be to navigate our way through it, but we've just lost more in one season than we're supposed to over a 3 year period.

[pauliewalnuts]

Also, once more, re all this shite, yet more reasoning towards the new stadium thing. There's no other way to really shift the numbers. I reckon we'll shoe horn in the 2.5k seats Heck referred to to add something and in the background work on bigger plans.

[Dogtanian]

Nooooooo! Another thread infected with the new stadium saga!

 

[pauliewalnuts]

Nooooooo! Another thread infected with the new stadium saga!

 

Needs some possible renders of the new stadium AND some speculative kit designs to do the full house.

[Percy McCarthy]

I’m on the more Percy optimistic side of this debate, I don’t think we’re going to have to sell anybody significant this summer and that’s especially true if we qualify in either 4th or 5th for the Champs League. That doesn’t  mean we won’t sell anyone if we receive the right offer or if that person wants to leave as player trading can help the FFP equation as much as any other factor.

As for some of the speculation in the media I’d suggest many pundits know far less about the whys and wherefores of AVFCs turnover, P&L and balance sheet than your average punter on here, they just see the headline £130m loss and come up with the “need to sell” talking point. It’s the usual lazy journalism and know nothing talking heads who can’t be arsed to look outside the usual 6 clubs because that might involve actually doing some research.

Exactly mate. I think the average H&V reader/poster who is interested in this stuff is better informed on it from within these pages than the average multi-club media commentator. Some of our own podcasters could learn a thing or two from here as well. All I did was put the positive stuff in a list, and that was just relating to this season. Next season has Adidas, Betanu and a still to be confirmed level of European football to add.

[AV82EC]

I’m on the more Percy optimistic side of this debate, I don’t think we’re going to have to sell anybody significant this summer and that’s especially true if we qualify in either 4th or 5th for the Champs League. That doesn’t  mean we won’t sell anyone if we receive the right offer or if that person wants to leave as player trading can help the FFP equation as much as any other factor.

As for some of the speculation in the media I’d suggest many pundits know far less about the whys and wherefores of AVFCs turnover, P&L and balance sheet than your average punter on here, they just see the headline £130m loss and come up with the “need to sell” talking point. It’s the usual lazy journalism and know nothing talking heads who can’t be arsed to look outside the usual 6 clubs because that might involve actually doing some research.

It's not really, though. It's pretty plain in those figures. UEFA reckon we've recorded the biggest loss in Europe.

I trust the powers that be to navigate our way through it, but we've just lost more in one season than we're supposed to over a 3 year period.

But as has been said on this thread already not all of that £130m relates to FFP allowable losses and no one seems to be paying attention to the increases in turnover (other than I think me and Percy banging the drum on here) so I stand by the point that we’re the victims of ill informed media speculation where 2 + 2 = 5 and little old Villa have got to suck it up.

Would I prefer it if we had t recorded the loss yes but we did the same the season we came up then used the Grealish situation to our advantage and get us through the next phase of the devpt. I’m not naive enough to think we won’t need to sell, if it’s the right opportunity then you have to player trade but at the moment I don’t think it’s anyway as cut and dried as some on here and the usual ill informed pundits and lazy journalists make out.

[Clark W Griswold]

I think it'll be Martinez, especially if we don't qualify for the Champions League.

I really hope not as that would be the one that would unsettle us the most. I would agree that profile wise it’s the most likely but surely one of the midfielders would be better for us as we have McGinn, Doug, Kamara, Ramsey and Tielemans who are all quality, none particularly old and we can’t play them all at the same time without being pretty negative. If one of them pushes to leave and we can get a big fee then it might not be too bad. If the scouts are doing their job we could replace with the next big thing for a fraction of the money. We really ain’t likely to fill the void left by Martinez.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

We have missed Buendia. He plays at a high pace, he’s aggressive and wins the ball back, and he plays quick, accurate passes through the opposition.

We don’t have anyone else like that and he’d have been a great option to have this season.

He was our standout player pre-season which made his injury all the more annoying. Whether he and for that matter Mings fully recover is another thing. We've been linked with the left sided central defender from Atletico Madrid, in fact we seem to be always linked with that position.

I wonder how much we'd get for Tielemans, £20m - £30m? I could see a few Italian clubs being interested but they'd want him cheap.

[ldavfc4eva]

I struggle with Tielemans, one game he is a 9/10 the next he goes missing and becomes a 6/10.

Not sure what his best position is, a little like Zaniolo. I suspect he is a 10, which when Buendia is fully fit , will be Buendias position as he is the better player IMO.

If we had an offer around the £30m mark i would sell him in a heartbeat. Pure profit too

[paul_e]

I’m on the more Percy optimistic side of this debate, I don’t think we’re going to have to sell anybody significant this summer and that’s especially true if we qualify in either 4th or 5th for the Champs League. That doesn’t  mean we won’t sell anyone if we receive the right offer or if that person wants to leave as player trading can help the FFP equation as much as any other factor.

As for some of the speculation in the media I’d suggest many pundits know far less about the whys and wherefores of AVFCs turnover, P&L and balance sheet than your average punter on here, they just see the headline £130m loss and come up with the “need to sell” talking point. It’s the usual lazy journalism and know nothing talking heads who can’t be arsed to look outside the usual 6 clubs because that might involve actually doing some research.

It's not really, though. It's pretty plain in those figures. UEFA reckon we've recorded the biggest loss in Europe.

I trust the powers that be to navigate our way through it, but we've just lost more in one season than we're supposed to over a 3 year period.

But as has been said on this thread already not all of that £130m relates to FFP allowable losses and no one seems to be paying attention to the increases in turnover (other than I think me and Percy banging the drum on here) so I stand by the point that we’re the victims of ill informed media speculation where 2 + 2 = 5 and little old Villa have got to suck it up.

Would I prefer it if we had t recorded the loss yes but we did the same the season we came up then used the Grealish situation to our advantage and get us through the next phase of the devpt. I’m not naive enough to think we won’t need to sell, if it’s the right opportunity then you have to player trade but at the moment I don’t think it’s anyway as cut and dried as some on here and the usual ill informed pundits and lazy journalists make out.

I reckon the amount and size of the 'exceptional' items involved in these accounts will be enlightening. Sacking all of Gerrards lot, hiring all of Emerys, hiring Heck, a payout to Purslow, a bunch of spending on the academy and probably other stuff I've forgotten. I wouldn't be shocked if that lot accounts for £40-50m that we don't have to worry about. I think people have either missed or forgotten just how much off-field churn there was between July 22 and June 23.

Add that on top of the increased revenues, european money and new sponsorships and you're done with addressing the shortfall, probably making a profit if we can keep up the league position and get to the final of the conference.

Assuming that is all true then the transfer maths changes. 1-2 players going out and generating £25-30m of profit translates to fees and wages for £70-80m of incoming players on 5year deals. Looked at like that you're looking at selling a Cash of Tielemans rather than a Martinez, Luiz or Watkins, which makes a massive difference.