Summer 2024 Transfer Window - hopes, speculation, rumours etc.

[Risso]

Man U could afford him, need him, and if they beat us or Spurs to a Champions League place, the excuse of them not being in it disappears.

[Dave]

I reckon we might look at Onana and think that they need him, but I'm pretty sure that the current management there wouldn't be looking to make that change.

While ten Haag is there I think he'll stick with Onana - and if they end up in the Champions League then it makes it less likely that ten Haag will be gone.

I agree though that if they did want him, he'd probably go there.

[ChicagoLion]

So Champions League will have a massive bearing on what happens!
Its why I think that this run in should be focussed on the league at the expense of the Conference.

[placeforparks]

And given our year-end is the end of June does that mean that any big sales we have decided to let happen, must do so before July? I guess it prevents a saga like the Grealish one rumbling through the summer.

yes. i also expect players will want things settled before copa america and the euros as well.

[Mister E]

Cash will bring some money in; and I think we should find a buyer for him. Digne off the books (along with Chamber, Coutinho and Dinky-Donk) will take some money off the wage bill.
Selling Tielemans is a good idea; not that I want to offload a good squad player, but it would make sense financially ... but it may depend on what wages he's on and whether that would put off potential buyers. And, with Buendia and Kellyman, Tielemans is already replaced.
Archer will stay with us if we make another Euro competition. And, we don't know what the situation is with Duran.

The big challenge is how many clubs will be buying during this window: the impact of FFP / PSR seems to be landing for several clubs at about the same time. Offloading redundant squad members may prove difficult.

[pauliewalnuts]

Paul Robinson makes me laugh saying villa will sell JJ and luiz for 100m 😂 luiz alone is close to 100m

Especially as apparently, in his expertise as both an accountant, along with being an FFP/PSR expert, we have to sell both to satisfy FFP/PSR based on one years worth of accounts that the media have scrutinised as the full FFP/PSR period...

Im no expert in either of those things, but as far as I was aware, FFP/PSR was based on three years worth of accounts...

It is, but the loss allowed is accumulated over those three years, and the amount allowed is less than we've just registered in one single season.

That means, ultimately, more money is going to have to come into the club than goes out, somehow.

There's only way we can really do that and that involves recouping significantly more in sales than we spend.

I think we'll sell Dougie. Will go for a big number, been here long enough to be fully amortised so he'd be all profit.

Not Digne? Coutinho? Dendoncker? Big wages off the books.

How much do we save by not signing Zaniolo?

Maybe selling Tielemans? He should be all profit & he offers little to average overall performances, bar the odd decent one...

I would 100% sell Tielemans before Ramsey or Douglas Luiz...

Like I say, Im not a financial expert, so I would bow to greater knowledge & experience than my own, but I don't think hitting FFP/PSR/etc targets is just down to selling Ramsey or Luiz.

Those are just the easy names to come up with when looking at the worst case scenario, which is exactly what the media, especially that absolute toilet of news 'football insider" will do for clicks & ad revenue...

I don't think it absolutely has to be Ramsey and/or Luiz, but it's going to have to be someone who is going to bring in a decent fee.

There is no other way, I mean other than selling at least on every good player, we can realistically shift our numbers by anything approaching 100m.

We're not saving anything by not signing Zaniolo, because we'll only have paid a loan fee. It will make a difference because it's money we won't be spending, but it is not money already spent so not shifting any figures.

Incidentally, this is - going back to an old discussion - exactly why we sold Archer and Ramsey junior. If Archer comes back, he'll absolutely be punted straight back out elsewhere again, too, for the same reason.

[chrisw1]

I think we'll be ok for this season - I just can't believe we will have left ourselves in the same position as Forest where we have to make a forced sale by June.

As for what business we do in the summer, it will depend on CL qualification.  I think that if we qualify we'll probably hold onto our big guns for at least next season, with business mostly being around the fringes of the squad + possibly Digne, Carlos & Duran.  If we don't qualify then I'd expect some major sales, something like Martinez & Luiz to leave.

I think having to buy Archer back will be a problem we have to solve and I'd expect him to be sold again, probably at a loss.  I also think there will be some unpopular youngster sales - possibly Tim & KKH.

[Duncan Shaw]

My gut feel is it will be Dougie, sadly, or JJ.

[john2710]

I just can't believe we will have left ourselves in the same position as Forest where we have to make a forced sale by June.

So we spent money in the last January window knowing we'd be forced to sell someone by the mid-June deadline for FFP accounts?

We might sell a high value player over the summer to help finance further recruitment, but I'm confident the club know what they are doing.
It would make sense to push the FFP losses to the very limit without going over.

[Drummond]

So Champions League will have a massive bearing on what happens!
Its why I think that this run in should be focussed on the league at the expense of the Conference.

I'd rather win a trophy at the expense of a player, than ditch it to keep him.

[Drummond]

An additional £30m from shirt and sponsor deals, added to £25m extra revenue from the european adventure will go a long way to fix that.

The shirt and sponsorship won't hit til next year so we'll be be under more pressure this summer.

And given our year-end is the end of June does that mean that any big sales we have decided to let happen, must do so before July? I guess it prevents a saga like the Grealish one rumbling through the summer.

Maybe we'll get a signing on bonus, golden handshake style.

[chrisw1]

I just can't believe we will have left ourselves in the same position as Forest where we have to make a forced sale by June.

So we spent money in the last January window knowing we'd be forced to sell someone by the mid-June deadline for FFP accounts?

We might sell a high value player over the summer to help finance further recruitment, but I'm confident the club know what they are doing.
It would make sense to push the FFP losses to the very limit without going over.

The point I'm making is that I don't think we will have done that.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

I reckon we might look at Onana and think that they need him, but I'm pretty sure that the current management there wouldn't be looking to make that change.

While ten Haag is there I think he'll stick with Onana - and if they end up in the Champions League then it makes it less likely that ten Haag will be gone.

I agree though that if they did want him, he'd probably go there.

I'd hope Emi has more ambition than to go there, not that they'll be looking for a new keeper, as you say, Onana is there to stay especially after they were patient enough to see through his rabbit in the headlights start. He's settled and they're all happy with him, a bit like Emi at Villa Park.

[Percy McCarthy]

Positives: On the new three year cycle, this year’s £120m loss replaces a £100m loss from the first year of the last three year cycle. The Joe sale/break-even year is still within the figures. There has been an increase in spectators from 792,000 to just over a million this season, (well over a million if we get to the UECL semi-final), paying more than we’ve ever paid before.  Lots more TV appearances and a nailed on increase in PL prize money, with our finishing position improving from 7th to 4th, 5th or, God forbid, 6th. Emery seemed adamant in an interview the other day that JJ won’t be sold, even for a lot of money, and, I dunno, you’d think he’d know right?

Could we possibly negate this stuff by selling the training ground to ourselves, like we did with Villa Park?

Nobody, as far as I can recall, mentioned the allowable losses that came to our rescue this year, and kept us comfortably under the PSR limit. Will they be a factor again?

It also appears we have not breached UEFA’s 70% rule.

I’m pretty confident we know what we’re doing.

[eamonn]

Perce, why aren't you in Finance?