Ollie Watkins

[RamboandBruno]

Ran about a bit, but no goal.

1 in 13 for this season now.

Need to look for a replacement in January, maybe even two. We can't go the whole season with this striker as our only option and expect to achieve anything.

It was weird mate, as its by far the best performance of the season where not one player really had a poor game. Everyone knows your opinion on this as you’ve posted it multiple times, but you just can’t wait to post again and again. I honestly think everyone gets that you don’t rate Watkins, and its fine you don’t rate him. However, posting the same stuff all the time, means this thread is now nothing more than Smirker vrs the world. Its a bit dull to be honest.

[rob_bridge]

Watkins was brilliant yesterday. Gave Stones and Diaz lots of bother, so much so former was taken off. Created space for Rogers McGinn Bunedia and Sancho.

[Drummond]

Watkins was brilliant yesterday. Gave Stones and Diaz lots of bother, so much so former was taken off. Created space for Rogers McGinn Bunedia and Sancho.

You mean his game, and the job the manager wants him to do, isn't just about sticking it in the net? It'll never catch on.

[LeeB]

Except it isn’t.  I repeat what I said the other day.

He’s totally out of form but working his bollocks off for the team. He was 100% better tonight than he was on Thursday. However he didn’t score again which is becoming a bit of a worry. There really is nothing more to it than that.

He just seemed to let the ball run across him a couple of times when he was in on goal and it just ran away from him.

No confidence at all in front of goal. That effort at a header was dire. Led the line well though. Touch was good too.

Yep, he still offers a lot even when he's not scoring. 

This is where I disagree, he did yesterday but there have been too many games where he gives up the ball far too easily and causes us no end of problems.

[PaulWinch again]

He does give the ball up sometimes, but a lot of that is because he’s competing in really difficult areas, often up against two players. He plays a big role enabling our other players to get up the pitch and attack the opposition.

It’s noticeable how much teams can box us in and pressure us more when he’s not on the pitch.

[kippaxvilla2]

Crowd seem to be still with him.  I think they are just willing him to score.

[Percy McCarthy]

Late to the thread as I don’t follow player threads religiously, but on this slow news day I just came on to say he was brilliant when he came on v Tottenham.

[paul_e]

I know Xg isn't a stat everyone likes but it does a good job when applied to an individual player over an extended period, so for Ollie since he joined us:

Goals: 76
xG: 84.87 (-8.87)
Assists: 34
xA: 23.93 (+10.07)

and for this season:

G: 1
xG: 1.71 (-0.71)
A: 0
xA: 0.33 (-0.33)

So yes, he doesn't score as many as he should, I don't think anyone has disagreed with that but that is usually offset with his build-up work being more effective than expected. Where there is a clear drop off this year so far is in both the chances that are being created for him and in the chances he's creating. On average over the last 3 years (so mostly under Emery) 9 games should see xG of around 4.5 and xA of 1 - this is thge same reason why, in general, we've been a little shot-shy so far this season compared to how we've been under Emery before.

[OCD]

Can this analysis be taken further to explain why the drop-off is happening?

[DrGonzo]

We're not great at crossing the ball?

[Nunkin1965]

Late to the thread as I don’t follow player threads religiously, but on this slow news day I just came on to say he was brilliant when he came on v Tottenham.

Just got to say Perc.
Took Gangsters, Geezers & Mods on holiday with me. Just finished it today,in Porto, on my 60th.
Thoroughly enjoyable read mate.
Rang so many bells and sparked off memories from years ago.
Thanks for being part of my day and sorry its off topic!

[paul_e]

Can this analysis be taken further to explain why the drop-off is happening?

I wish it could but, from a purely statistical stance, there's nothing obviously different from the last couple of seasons to this one.

From a non-statistical perspective I think we've been too narrow at times and we've been too cautious in general, the improved defensive performances do back that up a fair bit as well.

[Monty]

Is there a typical 'Watkins goal'? In my head the classic Ollie move is the checking onto his right from the left side zone of the penalty area, but is this statistically the case?

In other words, how does he score, and why are we not getting him in positions to do so?

[chrisw1]

I also think that teams have worked out that a low block and quick transition is tactical kryptonite for us, probably why our results this season are arse about face from what you might have expected.

[Percy McCarthy]

Late to the thread as I don’t follow player threads religiously, but on this slow news day I just came on to say he was brilliant when he came on v Tottenham.

Just got to say Perc.
Took Gangsters, Geezers & Mods on holiday with me. Just finished it today,in Porto, on my 60th.
Thoroughly enjoyable read mate.
Rang so many bells and sparked off memories from years ago.
Thanks for being part of my day and sorry its off topic!

Brilliant mate, glad you enjoyed it!