How much will Coronavirus (COVID-19) impact Aston Villa's season?

[Smithy]

Having the vaccine reduces its ability to infect and therefore to reinfect.
So it does help stop the spread to others.

A report on R5L this morning said that tests from Israel show that viral loads in vaccinated people with the virus are much lower than those in people who are unvaccinated. So if you're vaccinated, you either spread it less or not at all.

This is the crux of the matter.  People opposed to vaccines generally say things like "it doesn't stop you catching it, and it doesn't stop you spreading it, so what's the point?" - like it's some binary situation where you're either 100% infectious of 0% infectious.

The reality is that ALL mitigating strategies simply reduce the likelihood of those transmissions happening.  As Risso points out, vaccinated people tend to have a lower viral load when infected, this makes them less infectious (as they're putting less virus out into the surrounding environment).  It doesn't STOP them from spreading it completely, but it reduces the chances that they will.  Same for social distancing, same for face masks.

All these things make a difference to the probability of transmissions.  Some, like vaccines/boosters, make quite big differences to those probabilities. While some, like facemasks, only make small differences - but they all add up, and they ALL count.

[placeforparks]

At what point do we return to games played behind closed doors do we reckon?

unlikely. i think there could well be capacity limits brought in. bundesliga currently has a cap of 15,000 people.

the decision for the premier league will be whether to let government lead on what that cap will be, or propose one themselves.

[Ad@m]

I can't believe we have to keep having this conversation.  With the amount of information out there about how transmission can be reduced, no one can be unaware of it surely?  You either believe science or you don't.  And if you don't, you're better off on the conspiracy theory thread.

[usav]

At what point do we return to games played behind closed doors do we reckon?

Where is the evidence that football supporters are responsible for the rise in cases?

Cases are on the rise right now and that is significant.  What is more significant is that deaths are not.   When the latter rises significantly above seasonal levels, then we may have something more to worry about.  In the meantime, I think people should be able to make their own choices on what they do.

[chrisw1]

Why do people think that having the vaccine stops you from spreading the virus to others? My understanding is that it doesn't. Otherwise why are they still so worried when many people have been vaccinated. Vaccination only protects yourself and lessens the chance of hospitalisation. Those not vaccinated can't be accused of being selfish.

I have had my 3 jabs by the way.

If you’re fully jabbed you are much less likely to contract the virus. If you don’t have it then you can’t pass it on.

Exactly.  I'm amazed this still needs to be explained to people.  There's also the bonus of if you do get it you are less likely to be seriously ill, therefore less likely to take up NHS resources and on a lower level less likely to be coughing and spluttering over people which increases chances of transmission.

I understand people have reasons for not wanting the vaccine, but lets not pretend they're not mostly selfish ones. 

[ozzjim]

I have my 3rd jab tonight, have had covid 6 weeks ago and will continue to wear a mask where I'm around people. The jab doesn't stop the spread, it stops the illness being so severe. Having seen my wife have her first appointment yesterday in hospital for 11 months when they should be every 3, the damage being done to people not getting the treatment for cancers etc that they would ordinarily is untold. Those not getting vaccinated should be mandated to for me.

[Drummond]

At what point do we return to games played behind closed doors do we reckon?

Where is the evidence that football supporters are responsible for the rise in cases?

Cases are on the rise right now and that is significant.  What is more significant is that deaths are not.   When the latter rises significantly above seasonal levels, then we may have something more to worry about.  In the meantime, I think people should be able to make their own choices on what they do.

The evidence is around people not wearing masks/being vaccinated (being boosted re Omicron) and let's face it, the only place with consistently large numbers of people gathering together is football grounds isn't it? And the trains and coaches before and after, the sharing of lifts and the pubs people visit before the match.

[usav]

At what point do we return to games played behind closed doors do we reckon?

Where is the evidence that football supporters are responsible for the rise in cases?

Cases are on the rise right now and that is significant.  What is more significant is that deaths are not.   When the latter rises significantly above seasonal levels, then we may have something more to worry about.  In the meantime, I think people should be able to make their own choices on what they do.

The evidence is around people not wearing masks/being vaccinated (being boosted re Omicron) and let's face it, the only place with consistently large numbers of people gathering together is football grounds isn't it? And the trains and coaches before and after, the sharing of lifts and the pubs people visit before the match.

Of course, but everyone inside the train/pub/ground made that decision of their own free will.  I just looked it up, 91% of UK adults are fully vaccinated.  To be honest, I don't think the number will ever rise much above that unless some kind of workplace labour law mandates it.  As for Omicron, we don't have the data yet to say one way or the other what it means.

[Drummond]

At what point do we return to games played behind closed doors do we reckon?

Where is the evidence that football supporters are responsible for the rise in cases?

Cases are on the rise right now and that is significant.  What is more significant is that deaths are not.   When the latter rises significantly above seasonal levels, then we may have something more to worry about.  In the meantime, I think people should be able to make their own choices on what they do.

The evidence is around people not wearing masks/being vaccinated (being boosted re Omicron) and let's face it, the only place with consistently large numbers of people gathering together is football grounds isn't it? And the trains and coaches before and after, the sharing of lifts and the pubs people visit before the match.

Of course, but everyone inside the train/pub/ground made that decision of their own free will.  I just looked it up, 91% of UK adults are fully vaccinated.  To be honest, I don't think the number will ever rise much above that unless some kind of workplace labour law mandates it.  As for Omicron, we don't have the data yet to say one way or the other what it means.

I think the issue is that a lot of people are daft. We've had discussions about the numbers of people not wearing a mask for example. If people won't do it themselves, then the government have to change the law. Everyone makes a choice of their own free will, but if it has a negative impact on others, then someone else has to step in.

It's my right not have my life put at risk by a selfish person not wearing a mask. It isn't the individual's right not to wear a mask because they don't like it, if that puts others at risk is it? Otherwise, if that logic followed through, everyone could do what they wanted all the time and fuck everyone else.

[Demitri_C]

I have my 3rd jab tonight, have had covid 6 weeks ago and will continue to wear a mask where I'm around people. The jab doesn't stop the spread, it stops the illness being so severe. Having seen my wife have her first appointment yesterday in hospital for 11 months when they should be every 3, the damage being done to people not getting the treatment for cancers etc that they would ordinarily is untold. Those not getting vaccinated should be mandated to for me.

When you say mandated are you saying they shouldnt be treated?

[WarszaVillan]

I can't believe we have to keep having this conversation.  With the amount of information out there about how transmission can be reduced, no one can be unaware of it surely?  You either believe science or you don't.  And if you don't, you're better off on the conspiracy theory thread.

I don't think anyone has argued that vaccines don't help to reduce infection, although this could of course change with variants. The problem is that this does not necessarily lead logically to supporting vaccine passports. Over the past few months mass events have been held around the world with only vaccinated allowed to attend, and look where we are now. It provides a false sense of security that isn't justified for people who are vaccinated. Vaccines are extremely important, but unfortunately many politicians and commentators have been very irresponsible in claiming that vaccines will resolve the pandemic on their own. They won't.

[Chris Smith]

At what point do we return to games played behind closed doors do we reckon?

Where is the evidence that football supporters are responsible for the rise in cases?

Cases are on the rise right now and that is significant.  What is more significant is that deaths are not.   When the latter rises significantly above seasonal levels, then we may have something more to worry about.  In the meantime, I think people should be able to make their own choices on what they do.

The evidence is around people not wearing masks/being vaccinated (being boosted re Omicron) and let's face it, the only place with consistently large numbers of people gathering together is football grounds isn't it? And the trains and coaches before and after, the sharing of lifts and the pubs people visit before the match.

Of course, but everyone inside the train/pub/ground made that decision of their own free will.  I just looked it up, 91% of UK adults are fully vaccinated.  To be honest, I don't think the number will ever rise much above that unless some kind of workplace labour law mandates it.  As for Omicron, we don't have the data yet to say one way or the other what it means.

That figure is wrong, for the new variant 3 doses is fully vaccinated and that’s around 40% at the moment. Hence the push for a million jabs a day.

[Ad@m]

I can't believe we have to keep having this conversation.  With the amount of information out there about how transmission can be reduced, no one can be unaware of it surely?  You either believe science or you don't.  And if you don't, you're better off on the conspiracy theory thread.

I don't think anyone has argued that vaccines don't help to reduce infection, although this could of course change with variants. The problem is that this does not necessarily lead logically to supporting vaccine passports. Over the past few months mass events have been held around the world with only vaccinated allowed to attend, and look where we are now. It provides a false sense of security that isn't justified for people who are vaccinated. Vaccines are extremely important, but unfortunately many politicians and commentators have been very irresponsible in claiming that vaccines will resolve the pandemic on their own. They won't.

You have a different understanding to me as to what vaccine passports are trying to achieve. They shouldn't infer a sense of security as no one's tried to claim they're 100% effective. But what they do is make life more difficult for those who aren't vaccinated and should therefore encourage them to go and get vaccinated.

[CT Villan]

We appear blessed on H&V to have so many experts in biochemistry, molecular biology, epidemiology, virology etc right here in this thread all freely providing their experience and stating that if you don't agree with them then you must be an idiot/selfish and should be forced to behave in a manner that better meets their approval. This is not how science (or life) usually works.

I also note that apparently all science/data are wrong unless they agree with the official narrative, debate is anathema and opposing individuals vilified and censored. As an old scientist I find this deeply troubling.

[WarszaVillan]

I can't believe we have to keep having this conversation.  With the amount of information out there about how transmission can be reduced, no one can be unaware of it surely?  You either believe science or you don't.  And if you don't, you're better off on the conspiracy theory thread.

I don't think anyone has argued that vaccines don't help to reduce infection, although this could of course change with variants. The problem is that this does not necessarily lead logically to supporting vaccine passports. Over the past few months mass events have been held around the world with only vaccinated allowed to attend, and look where we are now. It provides a false sense of security that isn't justified for people who are vaccinated. Vaccines are extremely important, but unfortunately many politicians and commentators have been very irresponsible in claiming that vaccines will resolve the pandemic on their own. They won't.

You have a different understanding to me as to what vaccine passports are trying to achieve. They shouldn't infer a sense of security as no one's tried to claim they're 100% effective. But what they do is make life more difficult for those who aren't vaccinated and should therefore encourage them to go and get vaccinated.

It may therefore have the opposite effect