The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[sickbeggar]

I wish i was as confident as some on here.  While i can see us not losing that much, it's the draws that will kill you. Either way in the next 6 games, we'd be aiming at 4 points (goal difference willing) more than cardiff get to be above them so....

bristol c 1
brentford away 1
barnsley 3
birmingham3
derby away 0
burton3

So a guesstimate i make that 11 points, meaning we'd need 15. Obviously getting above them with 7 games to go isn't essential but we'd certainly need to be in striking distance to take advantage of them with their hard run in April and beat them of course. Plus we have to hope the other teams around us don't do anything decent in the same period. I don't know...think it's going to be decided right at the death.

well that's two points extra cardiff have that we could have done without - so much for my prediction. Still we won so keeping up with them, and sort of puts Bristol C out of the reckoning barring a collapse from us. We go again......

[Tom_Mc9?]

Cardiff never play well but keep grinding out wins. They don't look like faltering.

We probably didn’t when we won 7 in 7. Lots of things change quickly in this division. We’ll be in the mix right until the end, I’d imagine.

[john2710]

Cardiff are the team to beat for second place, we need to get past them before they come to Villa park. Their next 3 home games are vs Barnsley, Small health & Burton. Hopefully one of these in fighting for their lives can pull a surprise.


We'll need another run of 7 wins if we want that second place.

[themossman]

I’ve never liked Cardiff but they’re fast becoming one of my most hated non local teams, just behind the barcodes.

[The Edge]

I’ve never liked Cardiff but they’re fast becoming one of my most hated non local teams, just behind the barcodes.

I've no firm feelings about Cardiff either way. But I loathe their manager and I always have. Colin fucking Wanker.

[sickbeggar]

Bottom line is they're 2nd. Now you don't get to the final week of Feb in 2nd place if you're crap or fluking it, so the chance of their form dropping is pretty unlikely barring major injuries. Still think April is our best chance because then they have 3 games where a team in 2nd place could expect to drop points. Just have to make sure we're near enough to take advantage.

[Ads]

Well we did the only thing we can do this weekend and won. Two winnable fixtures coming up, let's look after those and get six points.

Wolves might be feeling a tad more pressure.

[sickbeggar]

Still totally ignoring Wolves at the moment. If in 3 games time they've lost them all after playing us and we've won all ours, they will come into the equation

[Pete3206]

Cardiff never play well but keep grinding out wins. They don't look like faltering.

Cardiff are on a great run, but they've been beaten by the likes of QPR and Bolton. I fancy Brentford to do them next week.

[Ad@m]

I think I'll literally piss myself if Wolves blow it from here.

[Clampy]

I think I'll literally piss myself if Wolves blow it from here.

And me, if only for some of the smug arseholes that have rang WM.

[Abbeyfealeavfc]

To match Brighton and Newcastle last season we needed at least 71 points after 34 games. Only wolves has managed to do this exceeding the target by 2 points.
Some of the early pacesetters have fallen short (even Cardiff despite their recent form) allowing Fulham, Derby and ourselves (on the back of 7 consecutive wins) to get back into the mix. Essentially I still think we're playing for 2nd place behind Wolves. Brighton finished as runners up last season on 93 points (This is still achievable for us but unlikely). They finished the season with 22 points from their last 12 games which included a 5 game winning sequence (winning 7 altogether). If we do something similar (particularly another winning sequence of at least 5  games)we would end up on 85 points which may be enough to secure auto promotion, especially if Cardiff fall away (89 points is the average for 2nd place, I believe). We need to be positive going forwards.

[Matt Collins]

I’ve never really gone in for estimating the final set of points we need

Isn’t it more telling to look at the points gap as things stand?

[SoccerHQ]

We should be able to close the gap next two. QPR at home and Sunderland away while Cardiff have Brentford away which is a very tough fixture (don't know who they have the next midweek).

Would be disappointed if the gap is still four points by the time we play Wolves.

[walsall villain]

We should be able to close the gap next two. QPR at home and Sunderland away while Cardiff have Brentford away which is a very tough fixture (don't know who they have the next midweek).

Would be disappointed if the gap is still four points by the time we play Wolves.

They have very mixed fixtures, next 3 at home are seemingly easy. Some tough seats thought.
Next eight...
Brentford A
Barnsley H
Birmingham H
Derby A
Burton H
Sheffield United A
Wolves H
Villa A