I know we've just won 7 out of 9 but compare the teams we've played in that run to the teams we've got to play between now and the end of the season and 9 wins and 2 draws from 13 looks way beyond us to me.
Quote from: Ad@m on February 22, 2018, 12:29:18 PMI know we've just won 7 out of 9 but compare the teams we've played in that run to the teams we've got to play between now and the end of the season and 9 wins and 2 draws from 13 looks way beyond us to me.Bristol City at home, Middlesbrough and Sheff U away were not easy games by any stretch.All teams around us have difficult games so it's the same problem for each team. 9 is only an estimate - It could be that 8 or even 7 would be enough.
Quote from: Brassneck on February 22, 2018, 12:37:35 PMQuote from: Ad@m on February 22, 2018, 12:29:18 PMI know we've just won 7 out of 9 but compare the teams we've played in that run to the teams we've got to play between now and the end of the season and 9 wins and 2 draws from 13 looks way beyond us to me.Bristol City at home, Middlesbrough and Sheff U away were not easy games by any stretch.All teams around us have difficult games so it's the same problem for each team. 9 is only an estimate - It could be that 8 or even 7 would be enough.I think we're in broad agreement. Aim for what we know will send us up and it will likely turn out to be more than enough. But the onus is on us to win games. If we set about teams, we more often than not win the game.I feel a lot more positive having broken down our fixtures into tranches. Doing the same for Cardiff;BurtonForrestSHABarnsleyReadingHullAre their bottom half sides;BrentfordNorwichMid table sides;Bristol CityWolvesUs [away]Sheffield United [away]Derby [away]The rivals.I think their fixtures are a lot nastier than ours. March looks tricky,a s do their immediate next two games with a Derby and Brentford hoping to move up into the next tranche.
WednesdayQPRSunderlandWolvesBoltonHullThink we've got to be looking at 14 points from that lot. Would leave us needing 3-5 wins from the final 7, but with the two six pointers I guess it's harder to predict what we will actually need.
Quote from: Ad@m on February 22, 2018, 12:29:18 PMI know we've just won 7 out of 9 but compare the teams we've played in that run to the teams we've got to play between now and the end of the season and 9 wins and 2 draws from 13 looks way beyond us to me.Not really. We beat sides up there, smashed one silly in fact. The other two were away from home as well. We lost to Fulham, who drew to the side we hammered which is evidence of how tight it is. 7 of the last 13 are against bottom half sides where if we win all of them [and your accusation is we're flat track bullies] then we'd probably need to avoid defeat against Cardiff and Derby and have enough in the balance to go up 2nd.MillwallBoltonHullSunderlandSheffield WednesdayReadingQPRAll bottom half sides;LeedsNorwhichIpswichAll mid-table going nowhere.WolvesDerbyCardiff All rivals, but all have to come to the hardest place to pick up points in the league, the home of football where adding context, we may not need to beat the latter two, simply avoid defeat to maintain the gap.As I say, the goal should be statistical certainty, but in the context of what others do, win the next 3, get back to second and matching Cardiff/Derby/Fulham will be enough. That may be 90 points, it probably will be a bit less.Come Bruce you fucker, its on a plate. You know what to do with things on a plate surely.