The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[The Edge]

We need to factor in the 3 points we'll have deducted when the FA overturn yesterday's result in response to the letter of complaint from that Wednesday fan.

Would it be just straight 3 points deduction or a further fine of 6 points for violently upsetting their fans? I can't see us making play-offs if so

If the league see sense and award SW all the points they've lost due to referees being paid off they will be top of the league by some margin.

[OzVilla]

Cardiff are really starting to piss me off now.

[chrisw1]

Both Fulham and Derby need 3 additional wins to overtake Cardiff so auto pro is dead in the water for them. The only team that can stop Cardiff is at B6.

Fulham have just beaten us and Wolves on the bounce.  They have the momentum and I wouldn't be surprised if they overhaul Cardiff.  Question is can we get on a similar run and stay ahead of them.  Don't fancy playing them in the playoffs.

[dorsetvillian]

All teams will dread playing Villa in the playoffs.

[The Edge]

All teams will dread playing Villa in the playoffs.

Well said mate 👏
It would be kinder if we just get auto promotion.

[dorsetvillian]

I agree, I'm not sure my heart could take the playoffs!

[SoccerHQ]

7 more wins and we'd be very close to automatic promotion. Looking at what we have left I think it's very possible. One of them will need to be against Cardiff of course.

[cdbearsfan]

Looking at run-ins, Cardiff have some fucking easy games. Could really do with them bottling it and/or having an injury crisis like we've had to put up with all bloody season.

[Brassneck]

7 more wins and we'd be very close to automatic promotion. Looking at what we have left I think it's very possible. One of them will need to be against Cardiff of course.

This is more or less where I am although I think it may need 8 wins. Looking at ours and Cardiff's 5 fixtures in March, I can't see much change in the 4 point gap (if we get closer then it will be a bonus). April is THE month and every game will turn into the tense "cup final" type of match. If we could somehow get another 3 points in front of Derby, they could be out of it by the time we play them and field reserves in their game against us, in preparation for the play offs. All "ifs buts and maybes" but I haven't stopped thinking about every possible twist and turn for the past few weeks.

[SoccerHQ]

Looking at run-ins, Cardiff have some fucking easy games. Could really do with them bottling it and/or having an injury crisis like we've had to put up with all bloody season.

What's easy about this:

Derby away- Derby lost form but still need points for top 6 and they don't lose many at Pride Park.

Burton home- Yeah I'll give you that one. Should be a comfortable three points.

Sheffield United away- Warnock's old club still battling for play offs. Won't be one for the purists, looks a draw to me.

Wolves home- Difficult to call. If Wolves get over this slump I don't think they'll lose.

Us away- Enough said.

Norwich away- Norwich got nothing to play for but Carrow road still tough venue to win at. We've got to go there aswell so get the feeling whoever wins this fixture will get second.

That's their run from Mid March to Mid April so decent chunk of their run in. I'd say if we're not second by end of that (we have Leeds at home when they have Norwich) we probably won't get second.

[cdbearsfan]

Sorry, I shouldn't have said "run-ins", it's the next few games I worry about. They have shite on toast every week. We need to keep winning or they could be out of sight by the time the tougher fixtures arrive.

Brentford, Barnsley and Small Heath = nine points.

[SoccerHQ]

Brentford away isn't easy. Can see them drawing that and us winning so down to two points.

[Brassneck]

Brentford away isn't easy. Can see them drawing that and us winning so down to two points.

You could also argue that playing a team fighting for dear life at this stage of the season is more difficult than playing a team mid to low table.

Out of Barnsley, Burton and Blues (their next three games), it's not beyond the realms of improbability for one of those teams to get some form of result there.

[Ad@m]

Looking at run-ins, Cardiff have some fucking easy games. Could really do with them bottling it and/or having an injury crisis like we've had to put up with all bloody season.

What, like losing their best two players for about three months in the run up to Christmas?

[Rudy Can't Fail]

Both Fulham and Derby need 3 additional wins to overtake Cardiff so auto pro is dead in the water for them. The only team that can stop Cardiff is at B6.

Fulham have just beaten us and Wolves on the bounce.  They have the momentum and I wouldn't be surprised if they overhaul Cardiff.  Question is can we get on a similar run and stay ahead of them.  Don't fancy playing them in the playoffs.

Me neither. The only side I wouldn't want us to face in we had to try and get promoted by the play-offs. We'll just have to do it by finishing second.