How likely is it that the bookies, who's very livelihood depends on having the odds right, have the odds wrong?
Quote from: Mazrim on April 22, 2012, 10:57:55 AMHow likely is it that the bookies, who's very livelihood depends on having the odds right, have the odds wrong?Have you ever made a mistake at work? Doing the thing your very livelihood depends on.Why don't you pop over to Oddschecker and explain to me why Bet365 will give you 14-1 against us dropping whilst William Hill will only give 9-1. Setting odds is not an exact science and I believe that at the moment they are pricing on the basis of current league position without enough consideration of form.
I think the bookies have us priced wrong to be honest. Yes, we're still 5 points clear of relegation and there's a game less to go, but since Easter all the teams below us have bunched up and if upcoming results were the worst they possibly could be we could be 17th next weekend, above Bolton on goal difference alone.It's not good.
My feelings towards McLeish haven't changed. He's a nice bloke that I do not dislike but as a manager he's a hack.I don't even really blame him for how things have panned out. Firstly I blame Randy for even considering appointing him and then he's had wretched luck with injuries that would have otherwise seen us well clear of any relegation worries, but there you go.Randy appointed a poor manager and has had poor performance as a result. You usually get what you pay for.But as john says, if you really believe we are going to be relegated, get your bets in while the odds are in your favour. Then come back and tell us how much you've won in May. In the meantime spare us the Chicken Licken updates every few hours. It's tedious.
On the basis that the £500 would secure us a good venue and perhaps fund the booze John, I can do a coleslaw and a decent rice salad and my wife does a very nice marshmallow dessert with fresh strawberries, yoghurt and whipped cream. I am conscious of doubling up on the food...
What do you believe the odds should be on Villa being relegated and why?
Quote from: Simba on April 22, 2012, 09:17:13 AMYou want stats? Form table -last six games:Wigan 3rd in table with 12 pointsQPR 10th 9 pointsBolton 8th 10 ptsBlackburn 18th 3 pointsVILLA 19th 3 points. That's second from bottom with only Blackburn having a bad run of form.For the umpteenth time we are terrible and getting worse FGS.Form is the major worry.Using simple averages (because you can't predict individual games at this stage of a season) based on those figures it could easily pan out like this:Club PointsWigan 40 (two wins and a defeat)QPR 39 (a win and two draws)Villa 38 (two draws and two defeats)--------------------Bolton 38 (two wins, two draws and a defeat)Blackburn 33 (two draws and a defeat)That would have us staying up on goal difference unless Bolton managed to turn around a 16 goal deficit. But as we've seen with Wigan beating Arsenal, QPR beating Spurs, etc anything can and does happen at this stage of a season. The way things are poised doesn't leave us much breathing space at all.I think the bookies have us priced wrong to be honest. Yes, we're still 5 points clear of relegation and there's a game less to go, but since Easter all the teams below us have bunched up and if upcoming results were the worst they possibly could be we could be 17th next weekend, above Bolton on goal difference alone.It's not good.
You want stats? Form table -last six games:Wigan 3rd in table with 12 pointsQPR 10th 9 pointsBolton 8th 10 ptsBlackburn 18th 3 pointsVILLA 19th 3 points. That's second from bottom with only Blackburn having a bad run of form.For the umpteenth time we are terrible and getting worse FGS.
Quote from: Ad@m on April 22, 2012, 10:50:35 AMI think the bookies have us priced wrong to be honest. Yes, we're still 5 points clear of relegation and there's a game less to go, but since Easter all the teams below us have bunched up and if upcoming results were the worst they possibly could be we could be 17th next weekend, above Bolton on goal difference alone.It's not good. I agree entirely. I think many of the bookies simply look at the table, and are not quite as swithced oin regards form and existing games as many of us who have been poring over the fixtures for weeks. But if we lose one game, the Bolton game, of which there is a good chance, we could easily not get another point this seaso. It then only needs Bolton, QPR and Wigan to win one further game each.
You don't see any bookies go out of business. Even in a recession.
It's all very well saying that but have you seen Blackburns and QPR's run in?Blackburn - Spurs (a), Wigan (h), Chelsea (a)QPR - Chelsea (a), Stoke (h), Man City (a)Blackburn have been on a horrendus run of form lately. QPR are ok at home. Let's not forget they've not suddenly turned into Barca...QPR unbeaten in those games? not gonna happen.
I reckon 37points will be safety this year for us as long as we keep the goal difference down and only lose by 1 or 2 goals. We can rule Wolves as been down. Aston Villa - Bolton (h) West Brom (a) Spurs (h) Norwich (a) LDLL 37 pointsQPR - Chelsea (a) Stoke (h) Man City (a) LWL 36 points (relegated) They only win @ homeWigan - Newcastle (h) Blackburn (a) Wolves (h) LDW 38 pointsBlackburn - Spurs (a) Wigan (h) Chelsea (a) WDL 35 points (relegated)Bolton - Aston villa (a) Sunderland (a) Spurs (h) West Brom (h) Stoke (a) WLDWL 37 points Really hate QPR so hope they go down...........
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Topic: Relegation Watch (Read 288531 times)
