Relegation Watch

[Ad@m]

How likely is it that the bookies, who's very livelihood depends on having the odds right, have the odds wrong?

Have you ever made a mistake at work?  Doing the thing your very livelihood depends on.

Why don't you pop over to Oddschecker and explain to me why Bet365 will give you 14-1 against us dropping whilst William Hill will only give 9-1.  Setting odds is not an exact science and I believe that at the moment they are pricing on the basis of current league position without enough consideration of form.

[richard moore]

On the basis that the £500 would secure us a good venue and perhaps fund the booze John, I can do a coleslaw and a decent rice salad and my wife does a very nice marshmallow dessert with fresh strawberries, yoghurt and whipped cream. I am conscious of doubling up on the food...

[Mazrim]

How likely is it that the bookies, who's very livelihood depends on having the odds right, have the odds wrong?

Have you ever made a mistake at work?  Doing the thing your very livelihood depends on.

Why don't you pop over to Oddschecker and explain to me why Bet365 will give you 14-1 against us dropping whilst William Hill will only give 9-1.  Setting odds is not an exact science and I believe that at the moment they are pricing on the basis of current league position without enough consideration of form.

Its nothing unusual for bookies to vary slightly on prices. Some do this deliberately to attract betting. 9/1 is not something they think likely to happen though I assure you.
I'm also fairly sure they do a lot more homework than simply looking at the table.

What do you believe the odds should be on Villa being relegated and why?

[maidstonevillain]

I think the bookies have us priced wrong to be honest.  Yes, we're still 5 points clear of relegation and there's a game less to go, but since Easter all the teams below us have bunched up and if upcoming results were the worst they possibly could be we could be 17th next weekend, above Bolton on goal difference alone.

It's not good.

 
I agree entirely. I think many of the bookies simply look at the table, and are not quite as swithced oin regards form and existing games as many of us who have been poring over the fixtures for weeks. But if we lose one game, the Bolton game, of which there is a good chance, we could easily not get another point this seaso. It then only needs Bolton, QPR and Wigan to win one further game each.

[john e]

My feelings towards McLeish haven't changed. He's a nice bloke that I do not dislike but as a manager he's a hack.
I don't even really blame him for how things have panned out. Firstly I blame Randy for even considering appointing him and then he's had wretched luck with injuries that would have otherwise seen us well clear of any relegation worries, but there you go.
Randy appointed a poor manager and has had poor performance as a result. You usually get what you pay for.

But as john says, if you really believe we are going to be relegated, get your bets in while the odds are in your favour.
Then come back and tell us how much you've won in May. In the meantime spare us the Chicken Licken updates every few hours. It's tedious.

Chicken Licken,  ha ha,  love it

[john e]

On the basis that the £500 would secure us a good venue and perhaps fund the booze John, I can do a coleslaw and a decent rice salad and my wife does a very nice marshmallow dessert with fresh strawberries, yoghurt and whipped cream. I am conscious of doubling up on the food...

your wife and the whipped cream sounds good

[Ad@m]

What do you believe the odds should be on Villa being relegated and why?

I've no idea what odds I would give but what I would say is that based on form I don't think we are anywhere near safe enough to justify being 14/1 whilst Wigan are 4/1, QPR are 17/10, and Bolton 8/13 (using the best odds available for each).  I think it's going to be much, much closer than that come the last day of the season.

[avfcpg]

You want stats? Form table -last six games:

Wigan 3rd in table with 12 points
QPR    10th    9 points
Bolton 8th     10 pts
Blackburn 18th  3 points

VILLA 19th   3 points.  That's second from bottom with only Blackburn having a bad run of form.

For the umpteenth time we are terrible and getting worse FGS.

Form is the major worry.

Using simple averages (because you can't predict individual games at this stage of a season) based on those figures it could easily pan out like this:

Club          Points
Wigan       40 (two wins and a defeat)
QPR          39 (a win and two draws)
Villa           38 (two draws and two defeats)
--------------------
Bolton       38 (two wins, two draws and a defeat)
Blackburn   33 (two draws and a defeat)

That would have us staying up on goal difference unless Bolton managed to turn around a 16 goal deficit.  But as we've seen with Wigan beating Arsenal, QPR beating Spurs, etc anything can and does happen at this stage of a season.  The way things are poised doesn't leave us much breathing space at all.

I think the bookies have us priced wrong to be honest.  Yes, we're still 5 points clear of relegation and there's a game less to go, but since Easter all the teams below us have bunched up and if upcoming results were the worst they possibly could be we could be 17th next weekend, above Bolton on goal difference alone.

It's not good.

It's all very well saying that but have you seen Blackburns and QPR's run in?
Blackburn - Spurs (a), Wigan (h), Chelsea (a)
QPR - Chelsea (a), Stoke (h), Man City (a)

Blackburn have been on a horrendus run of form lately. QPR are ok at home. Let's not forget they've not suddenly turned into Barca...
QPR unbeaten in those games? not gonna happen.

[dave.woodhall]

I think the bookies have us priced wrong to be honest.  Yes, we're still 5 points clear of relegation and there's a game less to go, but since Easter all the teams below us have bunched up and if upcoming results were the worst they possibly could be we could be 17th next weekend, above Bolton on goal difference alone.

It's not good.

 
I agree entirely. I think many of the bookies simply look at the table, and are not quite as swithced oin regards form and existing games as many of us who have been poring over the fixtures for weeks. But if we lose one game, the Bolton game, of which there is a good chance, we could easily not get another point this seaso. It then only needs Bolton, QPR and Wigan to win one further game each.

You think bookies don't know as much as we do when their money is at stake? It's their business, of course they're switched on.

[N'ZMAV]

You don't see any bookies go out of business. Even in a recession.

[john e]

You don't see any bookies go out of business. Even in a recession.

in fairness the bookmakers have gone the same way as every other major highstreet business, thay have all been taken over by the big guys,
there have been many hundreds probably thousands over the last 20 years that have disapeared

[Ad@m]

It's all very well saying that but have you seen Blackburns and QPR's run in?
Blackburn - Spurs (a), Wigan (h), Chelsea (a)
QPR - Chelsea (a), Stoke (h), Man City (a)

Blackburn have been on a horrendus run of form lately. QPR are ok at home. Let's not forget they've not suddenly turned into Barca...
QPR unbeaten in those games? not gonna happen.

I think Blackburn are gone but you as a general rule you can't read anything in to fixtures at this stage of the season.  Before yesterday I would've agreed with you re QPR but now they've beaten Spurs, Swansea, Arsenal and Liverpool in their last seven games.  I can easily see them beating Stoke at home and getting something from the Chelsea and Man City games.

Don't get me wrong, I still think we'll stay up but I think it's going to be so bum-clenchingly close it doesn't bear thinking about.  I wish I could be as utterly confident about staying up at a canter as some of the posters on here.

[damon loves JT]

You don't see any bookies go out of business. Even in a recession.

The gambling industry tends to be counter-cyclical.
 

[johncvilla88]

I reckon 37points will be safety this year for us as long as we keep the goal difference down and only lose by 1 or 2 goals. We can rule Wolves as been down.

Aston Villa - Bolton (h) West Brom (a) Spurs (h) Norwich (a) LDLL 37 points
QPR - Chelsea (a) Stoke (h) Man City (a) LWL 36 points (relegated) They only win @ home
Wigan - Newcastle (h) Blackburn (a) Wolves (h) LDW 38 points
Blackburn - Spurs (a) Wigan (h) Chelsea (a)  WDL 35 points (relegated)
Bolton - Aston villa (a) Sunderland (a) Spurs (h) West Brom (h) Stoke (a)  WLDWL 37 points

Really hate QPR so hope they go down...........
 

[Ad@m]

I reckon 37points will be safety this year for us as long as we keep the goal difference down and only lose by 1 or 2 goals. We can rule Wolves as been down.

Aston Villa - Bolton (h) West Brom (a) Spurs (h) Norwich (a) LDLL 37 points
QPR - Chelsea (a) Stoke (h) Man City (a) LWL 36 points (relegated) They only win @ home
Wigan - Newcastle (h) Blackburn (a) Wolves (h) LDW 38 points
Blackburn - Spurs (a) Wigan (h) Chelsea (a)  WDL 35 points (relegated)
Bolton - Aston villa (a) Sunderland (a) Spurs (h) West Brom (h) Stoke (a)  WLDWL 37 points

Really hate QPR so hope they go down...........
 

It's clear you hate QPR which is presumably why you've docked them a point!

If results pan out like that we'll need a win at Norwich to guarantee safety. Exactly what we don't want!