Relegation Watch

[Simba]

More fun:

Total shots ( over season): Villa 18th
Total shots on target: Villa 19th! with 125
Total Goals: Villa 17th with 35 (only Wigan Wolves, ONE goal behind) and Stoke below that total.

Does anyone want a breakdown of those - Home and Away or is it too depressing.

[Deano's Mullet]

They'll be alright this season but next season - without a relatively successful start like this one and without too many new faces -  i think it'll happen.

[SX150]

They'll be alright this season but next season - without a relatively successful start like this one and without too many new faces -  i think it'll happen.

If McLeish is in charge you put your house on us getting relegated next season. Very depressing football wise but could make a few bob quickly

[john e]

Even if we do survive this season (and on that it's 50/50 ).

For the umpteenth time, no it's not.

It's more like 90/10.

Even if we do survive this season (and on that it's 50/50 ).

For the umpteenth time, no it's not.

It's more like 90/10.

this is correct,
someone already posted that we are best priced at 9/1 to go down, so Dave is spot on

i really dont think some of you guys understand odds and the chances of us getting relegated, i know we are not very good but we have the points on the board and the number of games to play dwindling all the time.

if you really believe we are certainties to go down, you could make a lot of money, its called putting your money where your mouth is, i have £500 riding on us staying up, with nothing in return, and i am 99% confident i wont be losing my shirt.
in the unlikely event we lose against bolton and all the other teams below us win the next 2 games, and we lose again etc, i might get a wee bit worried,
 but at the moment as we are picking up points on a regular basis ( in 3 out of the last 4 games) i'm not going to get carried away.


PS, i remember last year the same people predicting we were 'definitely' going down,  we finished 9th

[OzVilla]

Thanks John, i'm happiest on this thread reading posts like yours - gives me perspective which when you have to stay up until 2am to watch each uninspiring 0-0 you desperately need.

[john e]

Thanks John, i'm happiest on this thread reading posts like yours - gives me perspective which when you have to stay up until 2am to watch each uninspiring 0-0 you desperately need.

your welcome,
by the way i'm not a supporter of Mcliesh, i think its been a dreadfull season, and would fear for us if we keep him in charge for next season

but my prediction has always been - No Relegation and No Mcliesh next season,
 and i am more and more confident of that outcome with every day that passes

[Mazrim]

My feelings towards McLeish haven't changed. He's a nice bloke that I do not dislike but as a manager he's a hack.
I don't even really blame him for how things have panned out. Firstly I blame Randy for even considering appointing him and then he's had wretched luck with injuries that would have otherwise seen us well clear of any relegation worries, but there you go.
Randy appointed a poor manager and has had poor performance as a result. You usually get what you pay for.

But as john says, if you really believe we are going to be relegated, get your bets in while the odds are in your favour.
Then come back and tell us how much you've won in May. In the meantime spare us the Chicken Licken updates every few hours. It's tedious.

[richard moore]

John, could we at least make a provisional date for the relegation party your £500 might be funding? It's always nice to get dates in the diary ;-)

[saunders_heroes]

Thoses stats are painful to read. Easily the worst season since '87.

[mallo]

We'd realistically have to get no more points and 2 of that lot need to win 2 out of 3 games. Very slim chances but chances nontheless. I'm not too worried but depressed and hoping to God that he goes after this debacle - worst home game form of all time?

[chippy]

I've just calculated the final league table based on every result going against Villa. The worst we can finish is 19th but only 4 points from safety. The odds off all the other teams winning every game and us losing every game is almost impossible. So I think we only need 38 points to survive. A draw Tuesday wouldn't be a bad result. Although we should be expecting a win against Bolton. No more excuses, we must best them!

[Ad@m]

You want stats? Form table -last six games:

Wigan 3rd in table with 12 points
QPR    10th    9 points
Bolton 8th     10 pts
Blackburn 18th  3 points

VILLA 19th   3 points.  That's second from bottom with only Blackburn having a bad run of form.

For the umpteenth time we are terrible and getting worse FGS.

Form is the major worry.

Using simple averages (because you can't predict individual games at this stage of a season) based on those figures it could easily pan out like this:

Club          Points
Wigan       40 (two wins and a defeat)
QPR          39 (a win and two draws)
Villa           38 (two draws and two defeats)
--------------------
Bolton       38 (two wins, two draws and a defeat)
Blackburn   33 (two draws and a defeat)

That would have us staying up on goal difference unless Bolton managed to turn around a 16 goal deficit.  But as we've seen with Wigan beating Arsenal, QPR beating Spurs, etc anything can and does happen at this stage of a season.  The way things are poised doesn't leave us much breathing space at all.

I think the bookies have us priced wrong to be honest.  Yes, we're still 5 points clear of relegation and there's a game less to go, but since Easter all the teams below us have bunched up and if upcoming results were the worst they possibly could be we could be 17th next weekend, above Bolton on goal difference alone.

It's not good.

[Mazrim]

How likely is it that the bookies, who's very livelihood depends on having the odds right, have the odds wrong?

[damon loves JT]

How likely is it that the bookies, who's very livelihood depends on having the odds right, have the odds wrong?

I think it's got to be 11/2 against.

[john e]

John, could we at least make a provisional date for the relegation party your £500 might be funding? It's always nice to get dates in the diary ;-)

a party !    at least that would be money well spent.

i'm quite serious about the bet though,
 i have never welshed in my life and i wont be starting now,
 but as i said in the very unlikely event i do have to pay out, the money will go to the site administraters for them to decide

anyway its not going to happen