The 5 Year Plan

[pauliewalnuts]

It is the names that linger the longest which are the more significant.

On the day he left, that list would have been chucked together by some trader with a page to fill. As time passed, the prices would have started to follow the money.

That market had been running for some time.

You just said it was the day O'Neill left.

That is not some time, and that market would have taken bugger all money at that point.

If you mean the market was running before he left, then that's of pretty much zero import anyway, as his departure would have meant the market starting afresh in any case

No it wouldn't.  Lots of bookies run markets on the next permanent manager of football clubs.  We've had one running for months.  Moyes is evens at the moment.

Yes, it would.

You might run a market on the next manager of a football club in perpetuity, but the incumbent manager resigning unexpectedly means that the market is going to look very different very quickly.

Here's Betfair's take on it the day after MON left, for example:

Current USA coach Bob Bradley is the favourite to take over at Villa Park and is trading at 4.0 whilst the perennial candidate on any next manager market, Sven Goran Eriksson, is 9.2. Former Spurs and Germany star Jurgen Klinsmann, who was in charge of his national team at the 2006 World Cup, trades at 9.6. Former Middlesbrough player and manager Gareth Southgate, who enjoyed a lengthy spell at Villa Park as a player, is currentlly available at 12.5.

Note how they have Bradley as favourite, and he isn't even mentioned in VD's list. A market like that will take time to settle as it builds up, so the snapshot of prices on the day MON left isn't really of much import compared to how the market moved over the following weeks.

[Villa'Zawg]

I wish i knew what point you were trying to make.

[Greg N'Ash]

Anyone who thinks the managers with jobs like Moyes would have jumped ship to take over us a week into the season are mental frankly. You'd have to be a complete bastard to do that to your club.

[Villa'Zawg]

Anyone who thinks the managers with jobs like Moyes would have jumped ship to take over us a week into the season are mental frankly. You'd have to be a complete bastard to do that to your club.

Well I for one would be distraught if football became the kind of industry where individuals acted in their own self-interest above that of the team they were serving at any given time and I don't know how you could have any respect for a club that employed such a cad. 

[Greg N'Ash]

Not everyone's MON. Managers will always leave if they get a better offer but just before the first match after they've spent the last 2 months getting the team ready and spending the chairman's money? nah. maybe wrong but i can't think of an example in the premiership.

[ROBBO]

Downing won't go this year and the only reason Villa may sell Young is they will get nothing for him if they don't. The right manager in the right circumstances can make a big difference just look at Liverpool since KD took over, the same players but playing under a very strong personality and a nasty bastard to boot. I like Houlliers vision of how he wants us to play but most of our players have very average skill levels and not capable of playing that way. Every business has a long term stratedgy whether it be three,five or ten years, doesn't mean it always works out.

[DeKuip]

Whatever plans Randy may have had in his head when he took over would have been blown out the water by the takeover at Man City. Who could have predicted that someone would come into the Premier League who would make even Abramovich seem like a two-bit market trader?

[Villa'Zawg]

Whatever plans Randy may have had in his head when he took over would have been blown out the water by the takeover at Man City. Who could have predicted that someone would come into the Premier League who would make even Abramovich seem like a two-bit market trader?

If he was scared off by Man City it would never have worked anyway. We were on 64 points at this stage of last season.

[pauliewalnuts]

I wish i knew what point you were trying to make.

ill try to simplify it sufficiently for you to grasp.

what you described as how "the bookmaking industry" (but will no doubt turn out to be the first result google gave you) saw the field of contenders on the day  your saviour left is largely meaningless as an indicator of the candidates we could realistically expect to find a manager from.

The market would have been reacting to a sudden change (departure of aforementioned messiah that same day) and barely any money would have been punted on it at that point. You'd largely be looking at a list of obvious names thrown together by a trader at that point.

If you are going to use what bookies said as am indicator of the pool we were fishing in, them the way the market moved over those weeks is a far better indicator than the day the market snapped into life.

I'd ask you to explain what point you were trying to make, but I think I can guess. Would out be "we had plenty of options, look at what the bookies said" by any chance?

[DeKuip]

Whatever plans Randy may have had in his head when he took over would have been blown out the water by the takeover at Man City. Who could have predicted that someone would come into the Premier League who would make even Abramovich seem like a two-bit market trader?

If he was scared off by Man City it would never have worked anyway. We were on 64 points at this stage of last season.

It's not a question of being scared off by them, but the limitless wealth they now have access to means that any plans we would have had of finishing top four were made a hell of a lot harder.

[Brian Taylor]

Stalin invented 5-year plans and most who started out in year one were not there anymore in year five bar Stalin.
We are in year five now. Another false start looking for anothe MoN
People die waiting for the outcome. What does RL want? We can't all go to the permafrost regions hoping it will all be ok upon return. I'm thawing out after the last 30 year plan.
Get out there and breed more kids who will join the party and avoid the the Gulag years.
Randy is not a dictator but he is our leader who distributes the dosh that may bring the desired rewarded.
What will they give us next season? The first of another five years before we are happy re-patriated Tartars? Who do they think they are dealing with? How patient can a fan be?
Who pays the wages? Who pays the way?
Who gives the wherewithal that is the lifeblood of the club?
RL is the antithesis of all above..show us the silver Randy..show us the gold
"The Eagle flies on Friday and Saturday I go out to play"..T-Bone Walker
It's our money Randy. We give it to you..we are the Eagle; the coin that spins on Friday..and we want to come out and play. Saturday is our day Randy..we have the rest of the week to earn the money we give, and donate, generously for that moment for that moment of limited excellence; Saturday when it is all realised and there on the park in front of us...
Randy better have a good answer for next season..cos the last season and the past 5 year plan has been shite overall bar some of the good bits in between.
In fact the past six 5-year plans have been equally shite, thinking about it.
I want one now to tell the youngsters that it has not all been exploitative rubbish for as long as I can remember. I want to say the Villa were always great and worth the effort.

[Greg N'Ash]

Citeh don't come into it really. we were on course for qualifying the season before last and there wasn't much citeh could do about it., just needed to keep playing as we were. And then we we bought Heskey...... that was the chance and we blew it spectacularly. Was downhill fast from then on.

[Villa'Zawg]

I wish i knew what point you were trying to make.

ill try to simplify it sufficiently for you to grasp.

what you described as how "the bookmaking industry" (but will no doubt turn out to be the first result google gave you) saw the field of contenders on the day  your saviour left is largely meaningless as an indicator of the candidates we could realistically expect to find a manager from.

The market would have been reacting to a sudden change (departure of aforementioned messiah that same day) and barely any money would have been punted on it at that point. You'd largely be looking at a list of obvious names thrown together by a trader at that point.

If you are going to use what bookies said as am indicator of the pool we were fishing in, them the way the market moved over those weeks is a far better indicator than the day the market snapped into life.

I'd ask you to explain what point you were trying to make, but I think I can guess. Would out be "we had plenty of options, look at what the bookies said" by any chance?

You need to have a lie down. I just copied in the odds list that was posted on here at the time O'Neill left.

I've completely lost track of the multiple certainties and narratives that you and people like tonto are trying to maintain. I'm sorry if I break your train of thought but there really isn't any need for this kind of nonsense.

[austin]

I wish i knew what point you were trying to make.

ill try to simplify it sufficiently for you to grasp.

what you described as how "the bookmaking industry" (but will no doubt turn out to be the first result google gave you) saw the field of contenders on the day  your saviour left is largely meaningless as an indicator of the candidates we could realistically expect to find a manager from.

The market would have been reacting to a sudden change (departure of aforementioned messiah that same day) and barely any money would have been punted on it at that point. You'd largely be looking at a list of obvious names thrown together by a trader at that point.

If you are going to use what bookies said as am indicator of the pool we were fishing in, them the way the market moved over those weeks is a far better indicator than the day the market snapped into life.

I'd ask you to explain what point you were trying to make, but I think I can guess. Would out be "we had plenty of options, look at what the bookies said" by any chance?

What a crock of shite

[Rip Van We Go Again]

I wish i knew what point you were trying to make.

ill try to simplify it sufficiently for you to grasp.

what you described as how "the bookmaking industry" (but will no doubt turn out to be the first result google gave you) saw the field of contenders on the day  your saviour left is largely meaningless as an indicator of the candidates we could realistically expect to find a manager from.

The market would have been reacting to a sudden change (departure of aforementioned messiah that same day) and barely any money would have been punted on it at that point. You'd largely be looking at a list of obvious names thrown together by a trader at that point.

If you are going to use what bookies said as am indicator of the pool we were fishing in, them the way the market moved over those weeks is a far better indicator than the day the market snapped into life.

I'd ask you to explain what point you were trying to make, but I think I can guess. Would out be "we had plenty of options, look at what the bookies said" by any chance?

What a crock of shite

Ohh.
You've put him to the sword there Austin, AKA George Bernard Shaw.