Champions League - PSG

[Somniloquism]

I was thinking the same.

Liverpool have not had the implosion I thought they would have from Klopp to Slot so we will have to hope either Arsenal implode instead with their self discipline or losing Rodri for a season starts affecting Citeh on the long term. Otherwise that is the top three.

I still think we are best of the rest but that depends on managing the squad better this season which we seem to be doing. Chelsea could easily self-sabotage or if they lose Palmer for any length of time........

And Spurs will Spurs it again.

[andyh]

With 5th likely to get CL next season, we probably need to finish above 2 of Chelsea, Spurs and Newcastle in the "best of the rest" mini league. Which is where I see Villa at the moment.

That would likely guarantee 5th, Finish above all of them and we would likely come 4th again. At least.

Eh ?

As Premier League winners, we will qualify anyway.   

[cdbearsfan]

With 5th likely to get CL next season, we probably need to finish above 2 of Chelsea, Spurs and Newcastle in the "best of the rest" mini league. Which is where I see Villa at the moment.

That would likely guarantee 5th, Finish above all of them and we would likely come 4th again. At least.

Eh ?

As Premier League winners, we will qualify anyway.

Correct. We need to qualify as quickly as possible so we can deliberately lose our last few group games to mess up England's ranking and ensure that no riff-raff like Tottenham or Man U qualify by finishing fifth. Ideally win each knock-out first leg by at least four so we can throw the second legs, too.

[eye digress]

Sorry, yes. It is guaranteed that the top eight will have home advantage in the second legs, and be seeded to play against the round of twenty-four winners, in the last sixteen. I'm not sure whether there is any seeding in the quarter-finals and semi-finals or if it's just open draw, as it has always been previously.

Also teams finishing 9th-16th will have home advantage in second leg, and be seeded to play teams that finish 17th-24th, in the round of twenty-four.

Had a look, from what I see, no real benefit finishing higher than 8th. Obviously, we're pretty well placed to get into that group, given our points on the board and the game or two where we feel we should pick up maximum points, especially Brugge and Celtic (that said, nobody will be fancy playing us right now, including Juve and the like). So if we can get over the line early, we can ease up a bit and focus on the league and domestic cups.

As things are shaping up, it looks like at least 3-4 big beasts will end up in the round of 24 playoff - PSG, Bayern, Juve, Real, Dortmund, Barça and Arsenal all outside the top 8 as things stand, though that list is likely to shrink as the matches progress over the coming months, I would guess. Assuming 1 of them gets knocked out in the round of 24, then of the 8 non-seeded teams, 2-3 seem likely to be big beasts - let's say 33%.

So roughly 2 in 3 times, we could expect to meet a very "playable" team against whom we would fancy our chances (say, Atalanta, Feyenoord, Lille, Sparta Prague), and 1 in 3 times, we would meet an "heroics required" big beast.

We can't be drawn against an English team in the round of 16, so if one slips up and fails to make it into the top 8 (which doesn't look likely at the minute), that would further reduce our chances of meeting a big player to something like 1 in 4 times.

After that, it's the quarters, and anything can happen.

[Dave]

Lovely bit of work

[AV82EC]

Sorry, yes. It is guaranteed that the top eight will have home advantage in the second legs, and be seeded to play against the round of twenty-four winners, in the last sixteen. I'm not sure whether there is any seeding in the quarter-finals and semi-finals or if it's just open draw, as it has always been previously.

Also teams finishing 9th-16th will have home advantage in second leg, and be seeded to play teams that finish 17th-24th, in the round of twenty-four.

Had a look, from what I see, no real benefit finishing higher than 8th. Obviously, we're pretty well placed to get into that group, given our points on the board and the game or two where we feel we should pick up maximum points, especially Brugge and Celtic (that said, nobody will be fancy playing us right now, including Juve and the like). So if we can get over the line early, we can ease up a bit and focus on the league and domestic cups.

As things are shaping up, it looks like at least 3-4 big beasts will end up in the round of 24 playoff - PSG, Bayern, Juve, Real, Dortmund, Barça and Arsenal all outside the top 8 as things stand, though that list is likely to shrink as the matches progress over the coming months, I would guess. Assuming 1 of them gets knocked out in the round of 24, then of the 8 non-seeded teams, 2-3 seem likely to be big beasts - let's say 33%.

So roughly 2 in 3 times, we could expect to meet a very "playable" team against whom we would fancy our chances (say, Atalanta, Feyenoord, Lille, Sparta Prague), and 1 in 3 times, we would meet an "heroics required" big beast.

We can't be drawn against an English team in the round of 16, so if one slips up and fails to make it into the top 8 (which doesn't look likely at the minute), that would further reduce our chances of meeting a big player to something like 1 in 4 times.

After that, it's the quarters, and anything can happen.

Bravo, a great little read.

[lovejoy]

I think top 8 will be a struggle.

[Ads]

I think top 8 will be a struggle.

We need 6 points more than likely.

[Flamingo Lane]

Top 8 will be difficult, but now entirely possible. And you only have to look at the next round of fixtures to see that teams who might have expected top 8, or might still be expecting top 8, will be taking points off each other.

[olaftab]

With 5th likely to get CL next season, we probably need to finish above 2 of Chelsea, Spurs and Newcastle in the "best of the rest" mini league. Which is where I see Villa at the moment.
That would likely guarantee 5th, Finish above all of them and we would likely come 4th again. At least.

Eh ?
As Premier League winners, we will qualify anyway.   

Forgive AG he is but a youngster.

[Dave]

I think top 8 will be a struggle.

Two wins and a draw from games against Brugge, Monaco, Juventus, Leipzig and Celtic more or less guarantees it. Taking nothing for granted, but we'll definitely go into three of those five games as favourites and nobody would be surprised if we got at least a point in the other two.

[Accent Guy]

With 5th likely to get CL next season, we probably need to finish above 2 of Chelsea, Spurs and Newcastle in the "best of the rest" mini league. Which is where I see Villa at the moment.
That would likely guarantee 5th, Finish above all of them and we would likely come 4th again. At least.

Eh ?
As Premier League winners, we will qualify anyway.   

Forgive AG he is but a youngster.

Haha. If only that were the case.

[Tony Daleys Shorts]

It’s bloody ridiculous we’re having these discussions regards the latter stages of The European Cup.

Loving it.

[Dave]

It’s bloody ridiculous we’re having these discussions regards the latter stages of The European Cup.

"We've basically qualified for the next round of the Champions League already having played less than half our matches, are we one of the few teams good enough to get a bye straight to the round after that?"

It's just great.

[Accent Guy]

I think top 8 will be a struggle.

 2 wins from the next 5 games will likely be enough. We have won 3 out of 3 so far.

What makes you think we will win a maximum of 1 of the next 5?