UEFA Europa Conference League - Alkmaar, Legia and Zrinjski

[ADVILLAFAN]

I've always had a soft spot for Leeds

[paul_e]

Was reading that the trouble with xG is that it should only be used to try and measure individual strikers, i.e. just because one scores 5 in 10 and another 2 maybe the latter just plays in a crap team and doesn't get high quality chances.

It doesn't work for teams because you're trying to define what's a 'good chance' by what the average finishing ability is of all teams in the league - which makes no sense, because the whole point is to measure who's better at finishing!

So, in short, time to file under 'Bollocks'.

Bit behind here but this was basically the point I was trying to make all week. xG is based on averages, because it's the only thing you can base it on, but that means too many things aren't accounted for for it to be used as some people have tried to.

What xG is useful for is getting an understanding of how well you're creating opportunities and how well your strikers are doing to get into positions. When Smith mentioned it as a sign that we weren't miles away from sorting ourselves out he was using it in the right way, we were creating chances, our strikers were getting on the end of them but we just needed a bit of confidence and composure. Not long later we had the fantastic start to the following season and looked like we might be on for a push for Europe until Grealish got injured and our form collapsed.

Once you're actually scoring goals using xG to suggest you're not playing as well as the results suggest is just bad analysis.

[Smirker]

2019, promotion? No effing chance.
2020, avoid relegation? Likewise.

2023, sneak 4th? Never say never...

Love this post mate.

I think we could do it at the expense of Newcastle.

Its only 6 points.

I really think we have a chance.

[Monty]

There's an old story (probably a lie) about the somewhat, er, ivory tower French philosophy style where some prof at École Normale is meant to have said 'well, it works in practice, but does it work in theory?'

Somehow caring more about some fashionable stat than about an actual massive winning run is the closest I've come across in real life to that story.

[eamonn]

It is fucking mental to think that in the normal business-planning course of events at AVFC, i.e last summer, you could imagine the board targeting a steady trajectory to top half this season, "deeper" progress in the Cups etc. Europa League places tentatively targeted within the following couple of years.

By the end of October, the only immediate target was to remain a PL club. Pretty sure Unai said that getting us into Europe at some point of his tenure was the positive aim spoken about in interviews but it still felt abstract at the time.

Even with the above targets achieved, you could then spend millions and who knows how many years trying to make that perceived, one last step, to the top four and the "promised land " of top-level players and sponsors, and nu-fans and TV income it would promise to attract.

The idea that all of that could in theory, be up-ended in the next few weeks - that we could conceivably (if improbably) finish 4th in a season where any target other than mediocrity wouldn't have come within an ass's roar of being an objective at the start is just remarkable.

Football must be infuriating to plan for by people who run clubs. Momentum can take on such a life of its own, for good or bad. We've known plenty of the latter, and we've waited 25 years for the fun side of the see-saw. We've paid our dues, maybe it's finally time to cash (Metty Cesh!) in...

[IFWaters]

We must keep in mind where we have progressed from and that any results that get us into European competition next year would be amazing. I would be a bit disappointed now if it was the conference league thing, the Europa League would be fantastic for us I think and Champions League might be too much too soon, incredible though it would be. I just want to see Villa back on their travels, it would be just reward for supporters who have been through thick and thin for the club .

[Smirker]

CL wouldn't be too much too soon. The strength of English clubs in terms of finances and squads means we'd easily be able to compete. We'd also make the knockouts. Leicester managed the quarter finals when they qualified.

Finishing top 4 again while playing CL football would be more difficult but that's what we want surely.

[Martyn Smith]

CL requires too many teams in good form above us to have downturns.

Brighton are excellent at the moment and have two games in hand over us, two games incidentally which, incredibly at this stage of the season have yet to be scheduled. They do have to face both Arsenal and Man City however, so arguably have the tougher run in. Plus they have the distraction of the FA Cup.

The best thing about all this is that after Stevenage the press were saying that Villa face a 'featureless' rest of season. I agreed at the time and am delighted that that will not be the case.

Who would've thought at the start of the season that a game at home to Brighton on the final day could possibly have so much riding on it? At this end of the table at least...

[algy]

I'm not in to this "too soon for Europe" stuff. You have to at some point go from being a side that doesn't play in Europe, to one that does. I think just be glad we're back in contention for that now, not playing bloody Rotherham.

However we do now, it's a marvelous turnaround to end up with a probable top half finish. We may well break in to that top 7/8 that even some Villa supporters were saying was a far off target. We've done well, and even if we don't end up Europe we mustn't lose sight of that.



All that said, right now it feels like we're very much in contention for Europe. Think we're capable, at a push, of catching up Newcastle. I guess by the same token we could, just, get caught by either Brentford or Fulham.

I dunno. I think we could get in the Champions League, I'll not be that disappointed if we end up in 8th or 9th. Hoping for European football in some form.

[astonvilla82]

But isn't it nice to be thinking about Europe,then wondering how many points we need to stay up

[Flin5tone]

I'd be delighted with conference league. It's a competition we could be very competitive in and have a very good chance of winning it which will mean Europa League the following season.

You'd expect Liverpool and Chelsea to pick up next season so this is a great opportunity to secure European football

Any form of European football back at Villa Park would be incredible.

[Pete3206]

The Conference would do for me. European nights facing teams that we would be capable of beating. Could be a fantastic adventure.

[Smirker]

CL requires too many teams in good form above us to have downturns.

Brighton are excellent at the moment and have two games in hand over us, two games incidentally which, incredibly at this stage of the season have yet to be scheduled. They do have to face both Arsenal and Man City however, so arguably have the tougher run in. Plus they have the distraction of the FA Cup.

The best thing about all this is that after Stevenage the press were saying that Villa face a 'featureless' rest of season. I agreed at the time and am delighted that that will not be the case.

Who would've thought at the start of the season that a game at home to Brighton on the final day could possibly have so much riding on it? At this end of the table at least...

We're only outside the top 4 by two places. We only need two teams to dip slightly. Its doable.

[PeterWithesShin]

We need 3 to dip with Brighton. Brighton could get bogged down by fixtures, Spurs we know seem to be bonkers at present and Newcastle have just had a ropey 8 games run. It's unlikely we'll make top 4 or 5, but not impossible.

Brighton have to play Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal, Newcastle and us.
Spurs have to play Newcastle, Man Utd, Liverpool, us as well as derbys with Palace and Brentford.
Newcastle probably have the easiest run but they aren't all that.

[edgysatsuma89]

I reckon to get 4th we would probably need to complete a 12 game winning run. Don't get me wrong I think we'll win quite a few more I just don't think it'll quite be enough. We're talking Man City levels of runs. We're bound to have an off day or get shafted by a shit handball. I reckon Brighton will get 5th, they're consistently creating a shit tonne against teams, and it'll be a 2 way battle for 6th with Liverpool. Spurs are genuinely shite and I have no idea how they have managed to stay this close to 4th for this long. I know we embarrassed Newcastle but they must have one of the best defences in the league for a reason, unfortunately I think they'll stick it. If anything I think Man United might be more catchable.