UEFA Europa Conference League - Alkmaar, Legia and Zrinjski

[AV84]

Probably too complicated to work out but with the 5th place probably getting CL next season, I'm just wondering what would happen if we won the Conference, but then also finished say 4th in the league?

We'd get Europa for winning the Conference, but where would that place go when we're going CL instead? Are we looking at potentially 8 English teams in Europe? Or would it go to the runner up from Conference final?

Is there still 2 Europa spots and a EC spot even with 5 CL spots? Which would make 8 anyway? (Possibly more if one of the top teams win the FA Cup too?)

[DeKuip]

Probably too complicated to work out but with the 5th place probably getting CL next season, I'm just wondering what would happen if we won the Conference, but then also finished say 4th in the league?

We'd get Europa for winning the Conference, but where would that place go when we're going CL instead? Are we looking at potentially 8 English teams in Europe? Or would it go to the runner up from Conference final?

Is there still 2 Europa spots and a EC spot even with 5 CL spots? Which would make 8 anyway? (Possibly more if one of the top teams win the FA Cup too?)

In the Conference League winners already qualify for the Champions League or Europa League through their league position the spare place in the Group Stage of the Europa League goes to the team with best UEFA club co-efficient in the qualifying rounds. So there’s be one less game in the first qualifying or Preliminary round. It wouldn’t gain the PL an extra place.

England could though have 7 Champions League places if say Newcastle and West Ham won this season’s Champions League & Europa League and finished outside the top 5 in the Prem. Then there would be 10 English teams in Europe (or 11 if we also won the Conference League and finished 10th or 11th, ie outside the Europa League qualifying places).

[rjp]

Has anyone heard anything about when the ticket arrangements for Mostar will be released?

[SaddVillan]

This is a piece from The Athletic which "forecasts" success.

It's based on a comparison of positions after 10 games and the season end over several seasons.

Here's hoping!

(Didn't quite know which topic to post it into).

THE 2023-24 PREMIER LEAGUE TABLE IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE DRAMATICALLY - HERE ARE THE NUMBERS TO PROVE IT

There is an understanding that a league table does not truly “take shape” until 10 games of the season have been played.

It is an ancient and arbitrary threshold that we have created for ourselves, but one that does have some merit.

First, it is a nice round number. Second, it’s… double figures.

It’s also precisely 26.3158 per cent of the way through the league season, which makes it feel odd to infer much about the final positions each team will occupy in May 2024.

We wouldn’t take this approach in other walks of life.

If you watched 26 per cent of The Usual Suspects, you wouldn’t know that Roger ‘Verbal’ Kint was Keyser Soze all along. If you watched 26 per cent of The Sixth Sense, you (probably) wouldn’t have worked out that Malcolm is a ghost the whole time. If you watched 26 per cent of Titanic, you wouldn’t have seen the ship… well, you know.

(Major) spoiler alerts notwithstanding, the point is valid — there are still plenty more twists and turns to come in the 2023-24 season.

However, broadly speaking, there is reason to suggest that the pack is unlikely to shuffle dramatically from the current standings. Since the inaugural 20-team Premier League season in 1995-96, more than one-third of teams (38 per cent) have shifted by just one place — or stayed in the same position — when comparing matchweek 10 to the final league standings.

Maybe we innately trust the league table after 10 games because deep down, we know just how much it reveals about the season ahead.There is an understanding that a league table does not truly “take shape” until 10 games of the season have been played.

It is an ancient and arbitrary threshold that we have created for ourselves, but one that does have some merit.

First, it is a nice round number. Second, it’s… double figures.

It’s also precisely 26.3158 per cent of the way through the league season, which makes it feel odd to infer much about the final positions each team will occupy in May 2024.

We wouldn’t take this approach in other walks of life.

If you watched 26 per cent of The Usual Suspects, you wouldn’t know that Roger ‘Verbal’ Kint was Keyser Soze all along. If you watched 26 per cent of The Sixth Sense, you (probably) wouldn’t have worked out that Malcolm is a ghost the whole time. If you watched 26 per cent of Titanic, you wouldn’t have seen the ship… well, you know.

(Major) spoiler alerts notwithstanding, the point is valid — there are still plenty more twists and turns to come in the 2023-24 season.

However, broadly speaking, there is reason to suggest that the pack is unlikely to shuffle dramatically from the current standings. Since the inaugural 20-team Premier League season in 1995-96, more than one-third of teams (38 per cent) have shifted by just one place — or stayed in the same position — when comparing matchweek 10 to the final league standings.

Maybe we innately trust the league table after 10 games because deep down, we know just how much it reveals about the season ahead.

With Tottenham Hotspur sitting at the top of the table after 10 games — their best start to a season in the Premier League era — the instruction from manager Ange Postecoglou was to “let the fans dream” about a title challenge following their 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace on Friday.

Sure, let them dream, but a more pertinent — albeit less catchy — phrase might be to “let them be driven by the data”.

A 2019 study looked at match data from 1995 to 2017 and found that the team who topped the Premier League after matchweek 10 had a 77.3 per cent chance of finishing in the top three by the end of the season.

Title challenge or not, a high likelihood of a return to the Champions League next season after just one-quarter of the season is surely a deal Spurs fans are likely to shake hands on.

Interestingly, a closer look at the findings from the 2019 study highlighted just how stable the league table becomes after just 10 matchweeks.

In the Premier League, the researchers found that 77 per cent of the statistical variance in the final league standings was explained by matchweek 10. By matchweek 20, that rose to 87 per cent. By matchweek 30, it was 94 per cent.

In other words, looking at the league table as early as November does give a decent indication towards the final positions held by each team.

Let’s be clear, the smaller changes in league positions are obviously the ones that can be the most crucial. The difference between a team finishing in first or second is not significant mathematically but immeasurable in its importance.

We should still get the final-day drama of title races, European pushes and relegation battles, but the wider analysis of league standings shows that a decent projection can be made pretty early on.

The implications of this are interesting. While it might seem like club owners appear a little overzealous when parting company with struggling managers before the festive period, the statistical laws suggest things are unlikely to change dramatically in the proceeding weeks and months.

We have come to accept the chaotic desperation that reeks out of clubs when sacking a manager, but the message is simple — there is mathematical merit in taking action sooner rather than later.

While the configuration of the table shuffles less than we might think, there will also continue to be memorable examples of teams who experience a significant drop — or significant charge — from matchweek 10 to the final day.

Looking across the Premier League era, a few seasons stand out.

Last season, Leeds United dropped from a comfortable mid-table position in matchweek 10 to the relegation zone by the end of the campaign.

That swing of eight positions was the second-biggest drop — behind Bournemouth’s nine-position shift from ninth to 18th in 2019-20 — of any Premier League team in the past six seasons.

For those with longer memories, cast your mind back to 2008-09, when a promoted Hull City won six of their opening 10 games — including away trips to Arsenal and Spurs — to find themselves ‘pushing for a European spot’… only to win just two of their remaining 28 games to scrape survival and finish in 17th.

Meanwhile, Spurs were rooted to the table after matchweek 10 in 2008-09, following their worst start to a league season in their history with only two points from their opening eight games. Harry Redknapp replaced Juande Ramos in late October to push Spurs to an eighth-placed finish — the biggest shift in the Premier League era.

Or how about that 2005-06 season, eh?

Charlton Athletic fans will not need reminding of their Darren Bent-inspired early title push that saw them win their opening four league games, only to drop down to a more realistic 13th position by May.

It is a nosedive that has only been matched by Hull’s 2008-09 season in the Premier League era, with no team dropping more than 11 positions within this timeframe.

Similarly, a pre-Sheikh Mansour-owned Manchester City looked to be on for a strong top-half finish in the autumn of 2005, before Stuart Pearce’s side fell eight places to 15th by the end of the season.

Of course, these fun quirks of yesteryear highlight the caveats that must be considered in the wider context of the current league table.

The Athletic has previously analysed the impact of fixture difficulty in skewing the league table in the early part of the season and a favourable run of games can look more pronounced than a team’s quality might suggest.

Secondly, a team’s over- or under-performance can similarly provide a false perception of a team’s true performance. For example, no team has currently scored above their non-penalty expected goals more than Aston Villa, or scored below expectation more than Everton.

Across a full season, you’d expect — although not guarantee — those quirks to even themselves out.

Nevertheless, the numbers don’t lie. While teams are yet to even play all opponents once, there is evidence to suggest that a large part of the league table variance can bey explained after just one-quarter of the season, something that really would give Unai Emery something to smile about.

[SaddVillan]

Apologies for the double post at the beginning

[Somniloquism]

Apologies for the double post at the beginning

You know you can "modify" your posts and remove the mistake. Not sure where it is on a mobile device but on the main version it is usually upper right of the post.

I would be more concerned why a post about our PL positions is in the Europa Conference specific thread myself....

[SaddVillan]

Apologies for the double post at the beginning

You know you can "modify" your posts and remove the mistake. Not sure where it is on a mobile device but on the main version it is usually upper right of the post.

I would be more concerned why a post about our PL positions is in the Europa Conference specific thread myself....

Thanks for the hint about modifying posts, but that kind of IT literacy is beyond me.

As regards the post not belonging in this topic stream, I did say that I wasn't sure where it belonged.  Feel free to move it.

[Lastfootstamper]

All unclaimed STH seats for Legia Warsaw are now available. If you know anybody that fancied one prior to now but couldn't get one, spread the word.

[astonvilla82]

Apologies for the double post at the beginning

You know you can "modify" your posts and remove the mistake. Not sure where it is on a mobile device but on the main version it is usually upper right of the post.

I would be more concerned why a post about our PL positions is in the Europa Conference specific thread myself....

Thanks for the hint about modifying posts, but that kind of IT literacy is beyond me.

As regards the post not belonging in this topic stream, I did say that I wasn't sure where it belonged.  Feel free to move it.

It's dead easy when you done it once and I the same with IT

[Ads]

Mostar tickets go on sale tomorrow.

[AV82EC]

Just seen the criteria, oof that’s restrictive but understandable when we only get 490. Assume you’re in the top tier Ads?

[Ads]

I am yes. They'll definitely get to the 3rd tier. Random having that 2nd window for 60 odd people lasting until the following day.

[rjp]

Ouch.  That's me buggered then I think.  I only have Legia and Alkmaar.  The numbers in each bracket don't add up to what was shown for Alkmaar though.  According to that there were only 576 ST holders who went to Hibs and Legia regardless of away attendance.  Now there are 1,189 ST holders who went to Hibs, Legia and Alkmaar.  Ignore me, just figured it out!

Alkmaar Criteria
Mostar Criteria

[Ads]

Wouldn't that mean there were 66 who did Hibs and Warsaw but didn't do Alkmaar, hence the reduction? Also references the cancellation for failure to attend below, so perhaps incorporates them?

[Ads]

I think there's a good chance it gets down to the 4th criteria, as more than 20 won't be able to go you'd have thought.