Going Straight Back Down?

[Smirker]

Great first post and great username. Welcome mate.

[Dogtanian]

Who are the three favourites for the drop btw?  I'd go with Norwich Brighton and maybe Newcastle

I have to stick with my analysis and say that Norwich will go down as the lowest spending newly promoted team.  Which is a shame as I think they are being very sensible and will be in a much better financial position if they do go down to come straight back up and be able to invest.

After that, I think Sheffield may go down as the mid-spending newly promoted team has been relegated just under a third of times in the last fifteen years.

Of non-newly promoted sides relegated from the Prem in the last ten years, approximately 90% of them had an average net spend per season less than 60% of the Premier league average over the previous 5 seasons.  This season ( though the window is yet to close ) that includes;

Watford - 59.4%
Palace - 46.4%
Burnley - 33.7%
Southampton - 15.1%

I think any of those could go down this season.  I've excluded Spurs who regularly overachieve compared to their net spend which has been skewed by high value sales and their success in youth development.

[SoccerHQ]

38 points usually feels safe to me. Think we finished on that in McLeish season, one of Lambert years and also Sherwood last 10 games. Usually finished 16th with that tally.

Way to do it is accumulate around 30 points at home and you then only need 8 points from away games which is very low haul over the season (two wins and two draws).

My prediction would be 14th on 45 points. I suspect we'll have a poor run at some stage as that's what happens to Dean Smith sides every season.

Was actually doing predictions with my Dad in the pub yesterday and he managed to get us to 55 points and about 9th so think someone will be disappointed with those expectations, only 5 less points than we were averaging in MON era.

[paul_e]

38 points usually feels safe to me. Think we finished on that in McLeish season, one of Lambert years and also Sherwood last 10 games. Usually finished 16th with that tally.

Way to do it is accumulate around 30 points at home and you then only need 8 points from away games which is very low haul over the season (two wins and two draws).

My prediction would be 14th on 45 points. I suspect we'll have a poor run at some stage as that's what happens to Dean Smith sides every season.

Was actually doing predictions with my Dad in the pub yesterday and he managed to get us to 55 points and about 9th so think someone will be disappointed with those expectations, only 5 less points than we were averaging in MON era.

Bold bit, Smith has never had the sort of squad depth we have this season.

I think we'll get about 50 points and finish 9-12 and never look in any danger.

[Lastfootstamper]

We've got one 'tricky' run all season, from what I can see, Man City last game of October through to Leicester second game of December. But even that includes Newcastle and Wolves. I really don't see any long winless runs.

[cdbearsfan]

The end of the season looks pretty tough. I wanna be mathematically safe by the end of April, pretty please!

[Dogtanian]

https://www.thestatszone.com/football/english-premier-league/premier-league-2019-20-tottenham-vs-aston-villa-preview-prediction-72577

 

[themossman]

Jesus what a load of ill informed shite. Spurs well rested and raring to go? Numerous parallels with Fulham? (name one besides ‘spent lots of money’). Twats.

[Pete3206]

They list 7 Spurs players as injured with one of their best players suspended and they've just had a gruelling money spinner of a pre season, yet they're well rested?.

If they get any less than 3 points on Saturday, I guarantee their manager will blame injury and fatigue
 

[Lastfootstamper]

I had been wondering what Mark "Lawro" Lawrenson was up to these days.

[SoccerHQ]

38 points usually feels safe to me. Think we finished on that in McLeish season, one of Lambert years and also Sherwood last 10 games. Usually finished 16th with that tally.

Way to do it is accumulate around 30 points at home and you then only need 8 points from away games which is very low haul over the season (two wins and two draws).

My prediction would be 14th on 45 points. I suspect we'll have a poor run at some stage as that's what happens to Dean Smith sides every season.

Was actually doing predictions with my Dad in the pub yesterday and he managed to get us to 55 points and about 9th so think someone will be disappointed with those expectations, only 5 less points than we were averaging in MON era.

Bold bit, Smith has never had the sort of squad depth we have this season.

I think we'll get about 50 points and finish 9-12 and never look in any danger.

He hasn't but last season we had that winless run from middle of December up to March. Yes Jack was out but we still had Tammy  and McGinn playing in majority of those.

It's a little bit like the John Gregory era when we'd always have one very dodgy part of a season when we wouldn't win for ages and then out of nowhere things would click back into place, can see the same happening this year.

[aldridgeboy]

A great first post !!

I think we should hopefully be good enough, especially at home, to get 40 points. A good start (by that I mean Bounemouth) will be a massive bonus.

[paul_e]

38 points usually feels safe to me. Think we finished on that in McLeish season, one of Lambert years and also Sherwood last 10 games. Usually finished 16th with that tally.

Way to do it is accumulate around 30 points at home and you then only need 8 points from away games which is very low haul over the season (two wins and two draws).

My prediction would be 14th on 45 points. I suspect we'll have a poor run at some stage as that's what happens to Dean Smith sides every season.

Was actually doing predictions with my Dad in the pub yesterday and he managed to get us to 55 points and about 9th so think someone will be disappointed with those expectations, only 5 less points than we were averaging in MON era.

Bold bit, Smith has never had the sort of squad depth we have this season.

I think we'll get about 50 points and finish 9-12 and never look in any danger.

He hasn't but last season we had that winless run from middle of December up to March. Yes Jack was out but we still had Tammy  and McGinn playing in majority of those.

It's a little bit like the John Gregory era when we'd always have one very dodgy part of a season when we wouldn't win for ages and then out of nowhere things would click back into place, can see the same happening this year.

We had that little bad spell but that was due to a number of problems caused by the complete lack of fit defenders in the squad and then the need to ease the new guys in. It might happen again and, as you say Smith's teams have had problems before, but having a deeper squad with 2-3 quality options in most positions is the best way to plan for dips in form so I don't think we should assume it will happen next year.

[KRS]

I put last seasons “dip” purely down to the simple fact that our team (particularly midfield) was a bit shit without Jack, and it’s no coincidence that the up turn in our form coincided with Jack returning from injury. Hopefully we’ll be more resilient this season with more strength in depth, but we still don’t have anyone similar to Jack...unless Jota can fill that role.

[wittonwarrior]

The only one concern for me is up front. If Wesley doesn’t hit the running or gets injured/suspended where are the goals coming from