Going Straight Back Down?

[Dogtanian]

Having been told by every man and his dog that we are going straight back down, I thought I would do a bit of digging and discovered the following three interesting facts.

1. The newly promoted side who spends least after promotion is the most likely to be relegated.
In the last 15 years, the newly promoted team who spent the least out of the three was relegated 12 times.  The newly promoted side who spent most out of the three was only relegated twice in that period.  The team who spent the middle amount went straight back down on four occasions.

2.  Getting up via the playoffs makes no difference to your survival chances.
Of the last 15 sides to get promoted via the playoffs, ten have gone straight back down.  Seven of those teams were the lowest spending of the newly promoted sides and fell foul of point 1.  Of the other three, two spent the middle amount and only Fulham spent the most. This shows that whether you get up via automatic or playoffs, it's not as important as how you invest in your squad.

3.  Newly promoted teams have to spend more than average to stay up.
Sounds common sense, but it doesn't always happen.  Over the last 15 years, newly promoted sides that went straight back down had a below average net spend that season compared to the Premier league average.  The average net spend of the 19 clubs to be relegated straight back down in the last 15 years was around 97% of the average net spend per club that year in the Premier league.  Those newly promoted sides that survived their first season spent an average of 175% of the average net spend per club that season.

All this shows that Fulham were actually an anomaly and Villa are doing the right thing to stay in the Premier league.

[Risso]

I have to say that is a very good first post.  Welcome!

[Legion]

Just amended the title a little as when I first saw the thread I thought it was going to be a bit of a dig from one of our lesser, inferior local unrivals. Great post, though.

[themossman]

Great post - welcome :-)

I thought the same Leeg, my knuckle dragger radar was in overdrive!

[Axl Rose]

And a great profile name. Welcome!

[Bad English]

I enjoyed the fact that dogtanian has been doing a little digging.

[Axl Rose]

I enjoyed the fact that dogtanian has been doing a little digging.

Any excuse to revel in some childhood nostalgia.

https://youtu.be/P-xO72s5EBY

[Dogtanian]

Cheers everyone!

Some of my Villa shirts have DOGTANIAN on the back and now and then I hear someone behind me start humming the theme tune 

[brian green]

Welcome Dogtanian.  Great first post.  Regards to Athos and Porthos.

[Marlon From Bearwood]

It’s amazing how many rival fans who said a few months ago;

“Villa aren’t ready for promotion, their squad isn’t good enough” 

are now saying (13 new signings later);

“ Villa have signed too many players, they’re doing a Fulham “.

I’m sick of hearing the word ‘Fulham’ and just looking forward to letting our football do the talking.

[brian green]

The Villa haters would have loved to see us banking on Cafu, Elphick, Taylor, Hogan, Whelan, Lansbury, Birkir and McCormack keeping us in the Premiership.

[mr underhill]

thank fuck we are not. This could easily be a mid-table squad.

[malckennedy]

thank fuck we are not. This could easily be a mid-table squad.

Why the pessimism ?!

[olaftab]

Dogtanian thank you and welcome. Very good info and fills me with confidence as it looks as though we are hitting/avoiding all 3.

[Drummond]

Having been told by every man and his dog that we are going straight back down, I thought I would do a bit of digging and discovered the following three interesting facts.

1. The newly promoted side who spends least after promotion is the most likely to be relegated.
In the last 15 years, the newly promoted team who spent the least out of the three was relegated 12 times.  The newly promoted side who spent most out of the three was only relegated twice in that period.  The team who spent the middle amount went straight back down on four occasions.

2.  Getting up via the playoffs makes no difference to your survival chances.
Of the last 15 sides to get promoted via the playoffs, ten have gone straight back down.  Seven of those teams were the lowest spending of the newly promoted sides and fell foul of point 1.  Of the other three, two spent the middle amount and only Fulham spent the most. This shows that whether you get up via automatic or playoffs, it's not as important as how you invest in your squad.

3.  Newly promoted teams have to spend more than average to stay up.
Sounds common sense, but it doesn't always happen.  Over the last 15 years, newly promoted sides that went straight back down had a below average net spend that season compared to the Premier league average.  The average net spend of the 19 clubs to be relegated straight back down in the last 15 years was around 97% of the average net spend per club that year in the Premier league.  Those newly promoted sides that survived their first season spent an average of 175% of the average net spend per club that season.

All this shows that Fulham were actually an anomaly and Villa are doing the right thing to stay in the Premier league.

Nice post.

I'm going to be disappointed if every post isn't made with three points now.