I guess the best place to start is to explain how many points are needed to aim for to not be going straight back down. In very simple terms, let's say we are aiming at 35-38 points over the season. That's usually enough for an outside the bottom 3 finish.
My research source is
https://www.premierleague.com/news/1174821"Premier league history has shown that since the league was cut to 20 teams in 1995/96, the average points required to avoid the drop has been much lower than 40."
I've added last seasons points tally to include
the past 24 seasons, the 18th-placed team, the highest to go down,
have averaged 35.5 points So looking at the last 3 seasons without our beloved club in the premier league the points needed to be safe were
2018/19 34 pts
2017/18 34pts
2016/17 35pts
And in fact as you can see from the link it's not since 2002/3 season that over 40 pts was needed . That season 43 points needed to stay in league.
Alright then tackling the question: are we going straight back down?
If we say "no we will achieve 35 plus points"
How do we get them?
Well one example 9 wins and 9 draws from 38 matches gives us 36 points. This is what Brighton achieved to stay up last season.
Can Villa can get the minimum points total of 34 which would have kept a club in the Premier league the last 2 seasons?
As we all know we have 38 matches to play 19 home/19 away .
Well, assuming for a moment that we won't get any pts from top 4 fixtures (we probably will maybe ?? have a few pts but I'm just trying to explain the method)
8 of those games are against the top 4.
Say we write off 24pts. So that leaves 30 matches and 90pts where as a promoted club we have a reasonable chance of gaining some wins and picking up points
Villa need to be aiming at 1.1 to 1.2 pts per match in 15 home matches And 15 away matches. Reasonable right?!
The opening set of fixtures gives 3 of 5 matches at home . A great opportunity to pick up points and I feel despite many new squad players there is a momentum.
During this coming season We have 6 consecutive fixtures from 7th December to 1st Jan without a fixture against a top 6 side I feel this is especially a period to achieve as many points as we can.
Aside from those more agreeable fixtures as the season goes along, in general ,it also stands to reason that the closer opposition clubs are to the bottom of the league when Villa play them the better it is to defeat them. One could argue the easier it is too
Though this might seem obvious to state it's actually significant. I've read here on previous posts the listed teams that are expected to struggle and being aware of the likely teams that will be struggling and winning those games can only be a major help in not returning to championship football.
Finally, in my first contribution to the site , I like to say I have watched Villas football season after season and things have been roughly the same untill Dean Smith arrived.
This season there will be matches that surprise the wider public , maybe even us supporters and followers. I can pretty much count on it with the way Dean Smith intends to compete. And at the same time, predictable results will happen. Now, that doesn't matter because we aren't seeing the predictable football and I really think The Smith Villa era is something that will continue to bring footy joy.
In my view, Dean Smith has built a competitive squad which I think can achieve 35pts and then some!!
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