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Author Topic: Douglas Luiz - Confirmed confirmed  (Read 473566 times)

Offline PeterWithesShin

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Re: Douglas Luiz - Confirmed confirmed
« Reply #1095 on: July 26, 2020, 10:13:55 PM »
I fancy that if they want a work permit for him they'll get it.

Offline paul_e

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Re: Douglas Luiz - Confirmed confirmed
« Reply #1096 on: July 26, 2020, 10:15:36 PM »
I fancy that if they want a work permit for him they'll get it.

I'm not sure, they couldn't for 2 seasons and on paper nothing much has changed in his circumstances since then. If they wanted him to play every game then they might push for it but to be an option off the bench, I can't see it.

Offline Bobby Boy

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Re: Douglas Luiz - Confirmed confirmed
« Reply #1097 on: July 26, 2020, 10:18:25 PM »
He was the player that really stood out post restart. Consistent in every game. Strong, composed, resolute.

Bearing in mind that he'd been in and out of the team pre-Covid his emergence has been a massive reason why we have stayed up.

Really need to keep him if we can.

Offline Ad@m

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Re: Douglas Luiz - Confirmed confirmed
« Reply #1098 on: July 26, 2020, 10:19:39 PM »
The 5 sub rule is what makes me think there's a chance they'll sign him back for a season and he'll either kick on or they'll flog next summer for a profit.

The bit that's in our favour is that he's only really done it for the last 10 games.  If Citeh thought he was close to being good enough they'd have loaned him out or kept him in the squad a la Foden.  But they obviously decided he probably wasn't going to make the cut and included the buy-back clause as an insurance policy.

I can't see 10 games convincing them they got it wrong.  It could just as easily be a flash in the pan as proof that they misjudged him.

Why gamble on £25m now, when they could see him over a full season next season and then decide for the same fee?

Offline Risso

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Re: Douglas Luiz - Confirmed confirmed
« Reply #1099 on: July 26, 2020, 10:20:53 PM »
I fancy that if they want a work permit for him they'll get it.

I'm not sure, they couldn't for 2 seasons and on paper nothing much has changed in his circumstances since then. If they wanted him to play every game then they might push for it but to be an option off the bench, I can't see it.

His fee will be a lot higher, so that's one thing that has changed that would pass the test.  Then they'd argue that he's be a regular squad player.  Finally, he's turned out for Brazil, and in the Covid affected world we now live in, he'll have played a high percentage of international games in the last 12 months.

Offline PeterWithesShin

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Re: Douglas Luiz - Confirmed confirmed
« Reply #1100 on: July 26, 2020, 10:21:43 PM »
The 5 sub rule is what makes me think there's a chance they'll sign him back for a season and he'll either kick on or they'll flog next summer for a profit.

The bit that's in our favour is that he's only really done it for the last 10 games.  If Citeh thought he was close to being good enough they'd have loaned him out or kept him in the squad a la Foden.  But they obviously decided he probably wasn't going to make the cut, but included the buy-back clause as an insurance policy.

I can't see 10 games convincing them they got it wrong.  It could just as easily be a flash in the pan as proof that they misjudged him.

Why gamble on £25m now, when they could see him over a full season next season and then decide for the same fee?

They couldn't keep him in the squad as they couldn't get a work permit last season. They've done the equivalent of loaning him out but getting a wodge of cash as well with the deal with us.

Offline Lastfootstamper

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Re: Douglas Luiz - Confirmed confirmed
« Reply #1101 on: July 26, 2020, 10:28:11 PM »
Wasn't part/all of our getting a permit, the relative fee we paid? If they want to buy him back and get a permit, would they not have to fork out seriously big time? It doesn't look like there's been much shift in his eligibility.

Info on the points allocation criteria here https://latitudelaw.com/news/the-fas-policy-on-non-eu-football-players-and-possible-implications-following-brexit/

Offline paul_e

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Re: Douglas Luiz - Confirmed confirmed
« Reply #1102 on: July 26, 2020, 10:31:44 PM »
I fancy that if they want a work permit for him they'll get it.

I'm not sure, they couldn't for 2 seasons and on paper nothing much has changed in his circumstances since then. If they wanted him to play every game then they might push for it but to be an option off the bench, I can't see it.

His fee will be a lot higher, so that's one thing that has changed that would pass the test.  Then they'd argue that he's be a regular squad player.  Finally, he's turned out for Brazil, and in the Covid affected world we now live in, he'll have played a high percentage of international games in the last 12 months.

Will his fee be enough to meet the criteria? If it is then we'll have made a good profit. Will his wages at City put him as one of their top earners? I doubt it. 1 appearance for Brazil, even with the virus, isn't enough for them to claim he's a regular at international level. They'd have to go through an appeal (much like we did) but whereas we could legitimately claim he was going to be a key player for us Man City just can't do that.

They won't want to sign him back only to fail to ge a permit again and be back to square one and there's every chance that could happen because on paper his eligibility hasn't changed much.

Offline PeterWithesShin

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Re: Douglas Luiz - Confirmed confirmed
« Reply #1103 on: July 26, 2020, 10:32:51 PM »
Covid will most likely have an effect on International criteria, and they can give him a good chunk of wages. He'd get the permit I reckon.

Offline paul_e

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Re: Douglas Luiz - Confirmed confirmed
« Reply #1104 on: July 26, 2020, 10:39:39 PM »
Covid will most likely have an effect on International criteria, and they can give him a good chunk of wages. He'd get the permit I reckon.

Maybe, maybe not. that's my point. If they wanted him back to play regularly I can see them going for it but I just don't see them being there yet. If they give it another year and he carries on as he has then they activate it knowing he's proven at this level. I might be wrong but I just don't see why they'd do it this summer.

Offline Risso

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Re: Douglas Luiz - Confirmed confirmed
« Reply #1105 on: July 26, 2020, 10:46:17 PM »
I fancy that if they want a work permit for him they'll get it.

I'm not sure, they couldn't for 2 seasons and on paper nothing much has changed in his circumstances since then. If they wanted him to play every game then they might push for it but to be an option off the bench, I can't see it.

His fee will be a lot higher, so that's one thing that has changed that would pass the test.  Then they'd argue that he's be a regular squad player.  Finally, he's turned out for Brazil, and in the Covid affected world we now live in, he'll have played a high percentage of international games in the last 12 months.

Will his fee be enough to meet the criteria? If it is then we'll have made a good profit. Will his wages at City put him as one of their top earners? I doubt it. 1 appearance for Brazil, even with the virus, isn't enough for them to claim he's a regular at international level. They'd have to go through an appeal (much like we did) but whereas we could legitimately claim he was going to be a key player for us Man City just can't do that.

They won't want to sign him back only to fail to ge a permit again and be back to square one and there's every chance that could happen because on paper his eligibility hasn't changed much.

There's not a set fee, if a player hasn't played the required number of games, then at the appeals process there are points based on what percentile the transfer fee and wages gets.  So for example, if his transfer fee is above the 50% percentile, that gives two points.  If his wages would be above the 50% percentile at the new club, that's another two points.  For playing in at least 30% of Villa's matches (in one of Europe's top leagues), he gets another point.  5 points and you pass the appeal.

To sum up then, they may or may not exercise the recall option, and opt to leave him with us for another year, but:

If Man City want him, they get him, and it doesn't matter whether Villa or the player himself say no.
They'd almost certainly get a work permit for him, if not outright then on appeal.


Offline PeterWithesShin

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Re: Douglas Luiz - Confirmed confirmed
« Reply #1106 on: July 26, 2020, 10:57:55 PM »
The international criteria has to be different, the window will be open when it's been nearly a year since most countries played.

Offline paul_e

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Re: Douglas Luiz - Confirmed confirmed
« Reply #1107 on: July 26, 2020, 11:08:51 PM »
There's not a set fee, if a player hasn't played the required number of games, then at the appeals process there are points based on what percentile the transfer fee and wages gets.  So for example, if his transfer fee is above the 50% percentile, that gives two points.  If his wages would be above the 50% percentile at the new club, that's another two points.  For playing in at least 30% of Villa's matches (in one of Europe's top leagues), he gets another point.  5 points and you pass the appeal.

To sum up then, they may or may not exercise the recall option, and opt to leave him with us for another year, but:

If Man City want him, they get him, and it doesn't matter whether Villa or the player himself say no.
They'd almost certainly get a work permit for him, if not outright then on appeal.

Bold bit is completely wrong, of course he has a choice and, therefore so do we. There can't be anything in the clause blocking him from signing a new contract with us so if they activate it we speak to him and say "whatever wage they offer we'll match and we'll guarantee you start xx% of our games, you're still young, gametime is more important than medals right now". He might want to go but they can't force him to.

All the rest, maybe, maybe not. As I said.


The international criteria has to be different, the window will be open when it's been nearly a year since most countries played.


Of course but if 1 appearance in a friendly is enough then the criteria is pretty much removed.

Offline Risso

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Re: Douglas Luiz - Confirmed confirmed
« Reply #1108 on: July 26, 2020, 11:10:15 PM »
There's not a set fee, if a player hasn't played the required number of games, then at the appeals process there are points based on what percentile the transfer fee and wages gets.  So for example, if his transfer fee is above the 50% percentile, that gives two points.  If his wages would be above the 50% percentile at the new club, that's another two points.  For playing in at least 30% of Villa's matches (in one of Europe's top leagues), he gets another point.  5 points and you pass the appeal.

To sum up then, they may or may not exercise the recall option, and opt to leave him with us for another year, but:

If Man City want him, they get him, and it doesn't matter whether Villa or the player himself say no.
They'd almost certainly get a work permit for him, if not outright then on appeal.

Bold bit is completely wrong, of course he has a choice and, therefore so do we. There can't be anything in the clause blocking him from signing a new contract with us so if they activate it we speak to him and say "whatever wage they offer we'll match and we'll guarantee you start xx% of our games, you're still young, gametime is more important than medals right now". He might want to go but they can't force him to.

All the rest, maybe, maybe not. As I said.


The international criteria has to be different, the window will be open when it's been nearly a year since most countries played.


Of course but if 1 appearance in a friendly is enough then the criteria is pretty much removed.

No the bit in bold isn't wrong.  You clearly don't understand how buy back clauses work.

Offline PeterWithesShin

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Re: Douglas Luiz - Confirmed confirmed
« Reply #1109 on: July 26, 2020, 11:13:05 PM »
He played in their last international, that international football has since been cancelled does make the international criteria pretty much void this window.

 


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