Summer transfer, gossip, speculation thread

[paul_e]

I understand people getting a bit twitchy but I also think Villa fans in general have a bit of a habit of over-estimating how good other teams are (I guess it's natural brummie pessimism). Norwich won't be anything like as effective in the premier league, Sheffield Utd look pretty weak and then Brighton, Bournemouth, Newcastle (as it stands) and Burnley all look pretty average as well.

And they'll all be strengthening just as we are.  They may or may not achieve that better than we do.

That's always true but my point is that squads, as they are today, the only place where we're significantly weaker than any of them is centre back (until Mings joins) and Grealish, Mcginn and AEG are a better attacking group than most.

[Mister E]

... putting a lot of faith in Revan and Suliman.

I thought Suliman had been released?
Agree with the rest.

I didn't think so but I might be wrong.

Hmmm, maybe he is still with us.
14 appearances in three loan outings does not augur well, unless the loan-clubs were poorly selected.
He needs to step up or move out, it looks like.

[Mister E]

In the news from a defender-focus:
"Celtic have reportedly agreed a £7m deal with Toulouse for centre-back Christopher Jullien ...
... Bristol City have turned down a £12m offer from Aston Villa for Adam Webster, who is also wanted by Leicester and Everton. Sheffield United could make Kilmarnock defender Stephen O’Donnell their first signing of the summer" - lifted from the Grauniad rumour mill.

I've no idea about Julien or O'Donnell, but they look better value than Brissol's valuation of Webster.



Edit: Julien certainly looks more interesting than O'Donnell, based on a brief view of Wikipedia and Transfermarkt

[stubbsyandy]

Two Love Island stars leave the villa in shock late night dumping...
In the Mirror, do we know who???

[AllanW]

Aston Villa squad building Summer 2019

Basic squad members plus squad backups in brackets;

After the dust settled on our Wembley win the squad looked like this with young squad players in brackets; loans returned to their own clubs, our loans coming back to us, transfers already agreed coming in etc

GK;    Steer, Kalinic, Nyland, (Sarkic)
CB;    Chester,
LB;    Taylor,
RB;    Guilbert, Elmohamady, (Bree)
DM;    Tshibola,
CM;    McGinn, Hourihane, Bjarnason,
AM;    Grealish, Lansbury, Gardner (O’Hare)
AL;    
AR;    (Green)
ATT;  Kodjia, Davis, Hogan, (Hepburn-Murphy)

Players = 17 (+5)

Even the most blinkered fan recognised that this squad is at least 5 players short and probably 8.
We don’t know all the detail but a decent estimate looking at the changes in cost would be;

Squad Costs; year-on-year

(promotion wage increases and bonuses = £10m+ p.a.)
(player clear-out saves >£20m on wages, costs >£4m payoffs = net £16m)

Net benefit in this first year = £6m

Transfers In;

Jota       £4m (saves us £1m with Gardner going the other way); wages £2m p.a.
Hause    £3m; wages £1.5m p.a.
El Ghazi    £4.5m; wages £2m p.a. (loan fee comes off gross transfer fee)
Wesley   £22m; wages £3m p.a.

Total to date =    fees £33.5m; wages addition £7.5m p.a.

This is where we are now, this weekend. At least 3 new first-team players and a significant squad improvement from before. All good. I’m happy so far. But where do we go from here? Sarkic has gone on a season-long loan already.

Option 1; the ‘consolidation-on-the-cheap’ route

Benrhama          £10m; wages £2m p.a.
Mings      £15m; wages £3m p.a.
Rongier      £9m; wages £2.5m p.a. with Kalinic going the other way, wages reduction £2m pa.

New Total =   fees £34m; wages +£5.5m p.a.

Then add 2 loans or 2 frees;

Total =      fees £67.5m; wages +£18m p.a.

This would be the squad;

GK;    Steer, Nyland,
CB;    Chester, Hause, Mings
LB;    Taylor,
RB;    Guilbert, Elmohamady, (Bree)
DM;    Rongier, Tshibola
CM;    McGinn, Hourihane, Bjarnason,
AM;    Grealish, Lansbury, Jota, (O’Hare)
AL;    El Ghazi,
AR;    Benrhama, (Green)
ATT; Wesley, Kodjia, Davis, Hogan, (Hepburn-Murphy)

Players = 22 (+6)

Affordable (around £85m all-in for this first year back in the PL), not risky with FFP, retains team cohesion but adds quality, gives a solid platform for first part of new season, develops attacking style using El Ghazi and Benrhama as wide strikers not just wingers, provides cover where we need it (don’t forget Hause can play left back and Guilbert can play centre back).

It’s a thin squad with meagre backup, no question about that, but it IS one capable of playing attractive football and staying up in this first year barring major injuries. And that would be the worry, wouldn’t it? The January window could address some of these deficiencies and secure survival while the 2 loans or frees would provide some cover for the most lean positions.

A squad like that would be good to watch for much of the season up to Christmas for us.


Option 2; the ‘I-want-it-ALL-and-I-want-it-NOW’ route

Butland      £22m; wages £3m p.a.
Benrhama           £10m; wages £2m p.a.
Mings      £15m; wages £3m p.a.
Tomori       £12m; wages £2m p.a.
Rongier      £9m; wages £2.5m p.a. with Kalinic going the other way, wages reduction £2m pa.
Maupay           £14m; wages £3m p.a. (Hogan going the other way saves £2m wages)
Targett      £14m; wages £2.5m p.a.

New Total =   fees £96m; wages +£21.5m p.a.

Then add 2 loans or 2 frees;

Total =      fees £129.5m; wages +£26.5m p.a.

Players = 25 (+6)

This would be the squad;
GK;    Butland, Steer, Nyland
CB;    Chester, Hause, Mings, Tomori
LB;    Targett, Taylor
RB;    Guilbert, Elmohamady, (Bree)
DM;    Rongier, Tshibola
CM;    McGinn, Hourihane, Bjarnason,
AM;    Grealish, Lansbury, Jota, (O’Hare)
AL;    El Ghazi,
AR;    Benrhama, (Green)
ATT; Wesley, Maupay, Kodjia, Davis, (Hepburn-Murphy)

At £156m all-in for this first year back that’s probably pushing FFP boundaries hard and might even be pushing financing facilities as well. It would undoubtedly give us a squad capable of not just staying up but being comfortable BUT only if the large problem of getting it all to gel together is successfully managed by the coaching staff. With at least 11 new members in a squad of 25 (13 0r so in the whole squad) that’s too much change to cope with all in one go, in my opinion. We’d be in great danger of ‘doing a Fulham’.
 
But it is tempting, isn’t it?

Which way will Deano go?

[mike]

Aston Villa squad building Summer 2019

Basic squad members plus squad backups in brackets;

After the dust settled on our Wembley win the squad looked like this with young squad players in brackets; loans returned to their own clubs, our loans coming back to us, transfers already agreed coming in etc

GK;    Steer, Kalinic, Nyland, (Sarkic)
CB;    Chester,
LB;    Taylor,
RB;    Guilbert, Elmohamady, (Bree)
DM;    Tshibola,
CM;    McGinn, Hourihane, Bjarnason,
AM;    Grealish, Lansbury, Gardner (O’Hare)
AL;    
AR;    (Green)
ATT;  Kodjia, Davis, Hogan, (Hepburn-Murphy)

Players = 17 (+5)

Even the most blinkered fan recognised that this squad is at least 5 players short and probably 8.
We don’t know all the detail but a decent estimate looking at the changes in cost would be;

Squad Costs; year-on-year

(promotion wage increases and bonuses = £10m+ p.a.)
(player clear-out saves >£20m on wages, costs >£4m payoffs = net £16m)

Net benefit in this first year = £6m

Transfers In;

Jota       £4m (saves us £1m with Gardner going the other way); wages £2m p.a.
Hause    £3m; wages £1.5m p.a.
El Ghazi    £4.5m; wages £2m p.a. (loan fee comes off gross transfer fee)
Wesley   £22m; wages £3m p.a.

Total to date =    fees £33.5m; wages addition £7.5m p.a.

This is where we are now, this weekend. At least 3 new first-team players and a significant squad improvement from before. All good. I’m happy so far. But where do we go from here? Sarkic has gone on a season-long loan already.

Option 1; the ‘consolidation-on-the-cheap’ route

Benrhama          £10m; wages £2m p.a.
Mings      £15m; wages £3m p.a.
Rongier      £9m; wages £2.5m p.a. with Kalinic going the other way, wages reduction £2m pa.

New Total =   fees £34m; wages +£5.5m p.a.

Then add 2 loans or 2 frees;

Total =      fees £67.5m; wages +£18m p.a.

This would be the squad;

GK;    Steer, Nyland,
CB;    Chester, Hause, Mings
LB;    Taylor,
RB;    Guilbert, Elmohamady, (Bree)
DM;    Rongier, Tshibola
CM;    McGinn, Hourihane, Bjarnason,
AM;    Grealish, Lansbury, Jota, (O’Hare)
AL;    El Ghazi,
AR;    Benrhama, (Green)
ATT; Wesley, Kodjia, Davis, Hogan, (Hepburn-Murphy)

Players = 22 (+6)

Affordable (around £85m all-in for this first year back in the PL), not risky with FFP, retains team cohesion but adds quality, gives a solid platform for first part of new season, develops attacking style using El Ghazi and Benrhama as wide strikers not just wingers, provides cover where we need it (don’t forget Hause can play left back and Guilbert can play centre back).

It’s a thin squad with meagre backup, no question about that, but it IS one capable of playing attractive football and staying up in this first year barring major injuries. And that would be the worry, wouldn’t it? The January window could address some of these deficiencies and secure survival while the 2 loans or frees would provide some cover for the most lean positions.

A squad like that would be good to watch for much of the season up to Christmas for us.


Option 2; the ‘I-want-it-ALL-and-I-want-it-NOW’ route

Butland      £22m; wages £3m p.a.
Benrhama           £10m; wages £2m p.a.
Mings      £15m; wages £3m p.a.
Tomori       £12m; wages £2m p.a.
Rongier      £9m; wages £2.5m p.a. with Kalinic going the other way, wages reduction £2m pa.
Maupay           £14m; wages £3m p.a. (Hogan going the other way saves £2m wages)
Targett      £14m; wages £2.5m p.a.

New Total =   fees £96m; wages +£21.5m p.a.

Then add 2 loans or 2 frees;

Total =      fees £129.5m; wages +£26.5m p.a.

Players = 25 (+6)

This would be the squad;
GK;    Butland, Steer, Nyland
CB;    Chester, Hause, Mings, Tomori
LB;    Targett, Taylor
RB;    Guilbert, Elmohamady, (Bree)
DM;    Rongier, Tshibola
CM;    McGinn, Hourihane, Bjarnason,
AM;    Grealish, Lansbury, Jota, (O’Hare)
AL;    El Ghazi,
AR;    Benrhama, (Green)
ATT; Wesley, Maupay, Kodjia, Davis, (Hepburn-Murphy)

At £156m all-in for this first year back that’s probably pushing FFP boundaries hard and might even be pushing financing facilities as well. It would undoubtedly give us a squad capable of not just staying up but being comfortable BUT only if the large problem of getting it all to gel together is successfully managed by the coaching staff. With at least 11 new members in a squad of 25 (13 0r so in the whole squad) that’s too much change to cope with all in one go, in my opinion. We’d be in great danger of ‘doing a Fulham’.
 
But it is tempting, isn’t it?

Which way will Deano go?

Probably somewhere in the middle, but I can't see Taylor being first choice LB, so I think option 1 is out.

[hilts_coolerking]

I don't like the look of Option 1 or 2.  That squad you end up with looks very weak to me.

[algy]

I understand people getting a bit twitchy but I also think Villa fans in general have a bit of a habit of over-estimating how good other teams are (I guess it's natural brummie pessimism). Norwich won't be anything like as effective in the premier league, Sheffield Utd look pretty weak and then Brighton, Bournemouth, Newcastle (as it stands) and Burnley all look pretty average as well.

I don't think we need to do a huge amount of business to be better than most of those if we can get the team working as we want, and I trust Smith and the coaches to do that part after the improvement we saw last season.

This is what I meant when I asked what 'competitive' means on the Mings thread, does it mean being the best of that group of teams or does it mean pushing on further to challenging people like West Ham, Everton and Wolves for the top 8? I assume no one is genuinely thinking any higher than that.  For me personally it means not being worried about relegation at Easter for next season, we all know that it's a big step up and that Bruce left us with a mess of a squad that will take some time to fix so staying up without too much drama is as far as I'm willing to look.

That's pretty much my thoughts. No need to panic, it's still June and we'll be contending with players & managers on holiday - not just the ones we want to buy, but also whoever we're buying them off is going to have the same problem getting a replacement. 4 players is quite a bit of business at this stage in my mind.

As for competitive - to me I'd be happy with 17th but in all honesty 8th-10th isn't out of range. For attacking players we're easily strong enough for those positions, if we strengthen the defending side I'd be reasonableness confident of being comfortably mid table, with a squad good enough to form the basis of a challenge for a place in Europe in 2020/21.

Without extra signings we will struggle, but it's so early in the window that I'd not be concerned if it was only Hause & AEG at this point. Having Jota and Big Wes in already makes me quietly confident.

[ajmant]

Without any additional signings, I don't think we will struggle, I think we'd be close to repeating the season when we came down. As in we would be well fecked! The defense currently has no center halves, and no quality cover for any of the positions to take account of injuries or suspensions. Likewise the midfield has no depth and up front we have championship forwards with an untried newbie.

All that can change very quickly, don't get me wrong.

But at this moment in time, I am anxious with the amount of players we have to bring in, and the time we have left to do it.

The spine of the team is extremely weak at the moment. It needs to change, and hopefully it will.

[jwarry]

And given last years experience barring the early new manager bounce, we can expect some tough times until Dean gets his messages through

[nigel]

Any news on Kongolo (?) from Huddersfield?

[Chris Smith]

I imagine that Dean Smith is on holiday, I am sure he said after Wembley that he would be around for a week or so and then go away.  If so then I doubt any signings will get announced until he is back at work.

[cheltenhamlion]

He was in Portugal with his assistant (not Terry) the other day.

[KRS]

Apparently Sheff Utd are in for Charlie Austin with Southampton expected to accept a bid of around £10m. A good price but an injury prone player would be a big risk even on the cheap.

[LeeB]

Apparently Sheff Utd are in for Charlie Austin with Southampton expected to accept a bid of around £10m. A good price but an injury prone player would be a big risk even on the cheap.

Bollocks to signing Charlie Austin.