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Author Topic: Dean Smith - Confirmed  (Read 758431 times)

Offline chrisw1

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9555 on: July 16, 2020, 11:37:47 AM »
You need to do it along side a few older heads - at least at first.  It shouldn't be all or nothing.  Whether the time to try to start it is immediately after promotion is also something they should have considered.

Offline paul_e

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9556 on: July 16, 2020, 11:56:35 AM »
Right but it's not as simple as buying young players who need time to develop and letting them improve - they won't improve if they're not being coached right, and meanwhile the short-term results won't be as good as they can be if the players aren't deployed in a sensible system with cohesive game plan.

Of course it's not that simple, but even if you get everything right you need to give it a few years to really see the value. At a smaller club like Southampton or Brentford I think the fans are more willing to give that time than we are.

Offline aj2k77

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9557 on: July 16, 2020, 12:08:46 PM »
We've been abysmal on the pitch for 8 months, I've seen nothing in our football to suggest the manager can improve the kids and to be a stable club.

Offline PeterWithesShin

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9558 on: July 16, 2020, 12:49:18 PM »
Buying young players and selling them for a profit has nothing to do wth the moneyball approach used by Billy Beane.

Offline AsTallAsLions

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9559 on: July 16, 2020, 12:55:43 PM »
Buying young players and selling them for a profit has nothing to do wth the moneyball approach used by Billy Beane.

You are correct about young players, but not about increasing the market value of the assets.

"The Moneyball thesis is simple: Using statistical analysis, small-market teams can compete by buying assets that are undervalued by other teams and selling ones that are overvalued by other teams." - The Economics of Moneyball

MLB players regularly play on until their late thirties, whereas the mean average age of top flight football players is much lower, so it stands to reason that the easiest way to increase an "undervalued" football player's value is to buy them young and develop them.

Offline PeterWithesShin

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9560 on: July 16, 2020, 01:03:06 PM »
Beane signed David Justice, age has nothing to do with it. Resale value had nothing to do with it. He'd have signed a 50 year old with one leg if his OBP warranted it. The overvalue was to do with 'sexy' players like Damon, or closers who could have their numbers inflated if used correctly.

Offline ozzjim

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9561 on: July 16, 2020, 01:10:20 PM »
Re Bruce, he lucked out getting Saint Maximan. Put him in our team all season, we are safe now.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 01:15:54 PM by ozzjim »

Offline Chico Hamilton III

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9562 on: July 16, 2020, 01:37:42 PM »
It's all well and good focusing on bringing young players through but we're short of any decent Premiere League experienced leaders. Someone who knows all the tricks in the book and is familiar with dark arts of Premiere League football. Although in recent years we seem to have bought the very worst examples of this in Richards, Lescott, Drinkwater etc.

I'm trying to think of the last "experienced" player we brought in who actually improved the team. John Terry, i suppose. He surprised me at how good a player he was.   

Offline PeterWithesShin

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9563 on: July 16, 2020, 01:44:44 PM »
Heaton, Snodgrass, Elmo, Jedi, Chester, Albert, Kod are a few more.

Offline AsTallAsLions

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9564 on: July 16, 2020, 02:05:29 PM »
Beane signed David Justice, age has nothing to do with it. Resale value had nothing to do with it. He'd have signed a 50 year old with one leg if his OBP warranted it. The overvalue was to do with 'sexy' players like Damon, or closers who could have their numbers inflated if used correctly.

Okay. So, getting back to my point which you ignored, when you apply the methodology to football, which is naturally a very different sport with different mechanics, parameters and metrics, the Moneyball approach substantively changes. Edens, Purslow, Suso clearly agreed to approach it as a "let's buy relatively young based on analytics of potential and sell for a bigger price in a massively inflated market". Which other teams have done also.

It's essentially the same approach as Paddy Riley's - which also failed Aston Villa.

Offline tomd2103

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9565 on: July 16, 2020, 02:07:47 PM »
Beane signed David Justice, age has nothing to do with it. Resale value had nothing to do with it. He'd have signed a 50 year old with one leg if his OBP warranted it. The overvalue was to do with 'sexy' players like Damon, or closers who could have their numbers inflated if used correctly.

More to do with salaries in American sports than transfer fees as well. 

Offline Chico Hamilton III

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9566 on: July 16, 2020, 02:15:40 PM »
Heaton, Snodgrass, Elmo, Jedi, Chester, Albert, Kod are a few more.

Snodgrass aside, I'm not sure how much premier league experience this lot have? honestly haven't checked

Offline chrisw1

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9567 on: July 16, 2020, 02:21:22 PM »
Well Heaton, Snodgrass, Elmo, Jedi and Chester had absolutely loads.  Albert and Kodjia hardly any.

Offline Chico Hamilton III

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9568 on: July 16, 2020, 02:32:26 PM »
Fair enough - except for Chester. Forget everything I posted just now.

Offline SoccerHQ

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Re: Dean Smith - Confirmed
« Reply #9569 on: July 16, 2020, 08:02:00 PM »


Mad to think we still had 3 subs left at 1-0 up.

I'd love to know what goes through his head at times at critical moments in the second half.

We've seen countless times at VP when away teams are winning 1-0 and their keepers are taking half an hour to take a goal kick and they're making a sub every minute to slow the game down.

As soon as Calvert Lewin missed Nakamba and Gulibert should've been on surely? 60 seconds later it was 1-1 and we've nearly run out of games now.

He'll never be an established prem manager for us or anywhere else until he learns the art of closing a tight game out with substitutions and time managing/wasting.

 


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