The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Tom_Mc9?]

Correct.

I agree that it would be fairly astonishing for their form to continue, but their remaining games are a lot easier than I would like.

[amfy]

We keep talking about everyone else's good form as a given, without recognising that ours is as good.
We faltered when Albert and Jack were crocked but other than that we've not missed a beat this year really!
'Unstoppable' Fulham will still be 4 points behind us if  we do what we should against QPR.

[London Villan]

It makes december even more frustrating/curious. One more win during would make a big difference now.

[SoccerHQ]

It makes december even more frustrating/curious. One more win during would make a big difference now.

Cardiff lost four straight games during xmas.

Big frustration is how slow our start was. That should'nt have happened given we had most of last season to plan for this one.

Cardiff won their first five league games. We won one of our first seven.

By middle of September Cardiff pretty much had a 10 point head start on us so that's why it's been so tough to get infront of them.

[DennisHodgetts]

We keep talking about everyone else's good form as a given, without recognising that ours is as good.
We faltered when Albert and Jack were crocked but other than that we've not missed a beat this year really!
'Unstoppable' Fulham will still be 4 points behind us if  we do what we should against QPR.

Agreed. If our best players stay fit and focussed it is there for the taking. Cardiff will surely drop points soon with their fixtures and Fulham haven’t been able to catch us yet and can’t if we keep going. Let’s hope Jack is ok after the kicking he received last night, he makes results seem so much likely, it always seems laboured without him.

[paul_e]

It makes december even more frustrating/curious. One more win during would make a big difference now.

Cardiff lost four straight games during xmas.

Big frustration is how slow our start was. That should'nt have happened given we had most of last season to plan for this one.

Cardiff won their first five league games. We won one of our first seven.

By middle of September Cardiff pretty much had a 10 point head start on us so that's why it's been so tough to get infront of them.

Yep, I've taken a lot of grief on here from some for complaining about the start to the season but there really was no justification for how unprepared we looked in August.  From about Christmas last season it was obvious which league we were going to be in and time needed to be used to find a way to play that worked for us but instead we muddled through into the summer and then muddled along until the end of the window before we started trying to work out how to use the squad. Despite all my complaints at the time I don't think December was as bad, I just hate constantly playing catch-up.

We're now in a great place and look like we might make it despite the poor start but I'd love to have another 7-8 points on the board right now and be right in the mix for the title.

Where Bruce, the players, the coaches, etc all deserve huge credit is that they've finally started acting like the big dog and going into games like this knowing that if we perform they won't be good enough to handle us.  If we can keep that attitude for the rest of the season we'll get top2, if we'd had it from the summer we'd be going up with 100+ points on the board.

[ozzjim]

The start we had, and December, is so fucking annoying now. 2 wins in that lot somewhere and we would be looking favourites to win it I reckon. As it is, I think we will come tragically 3rd. I think 2nd will need 93. Which has happened twice in the last few years. To get to there we will need to win 8 of the last 10.

Fulham are flying, but an injury to Mitrovic, Sessengon or Cairney from finding things much tougher. Win on Tuesday and I think 4 points in 9 games will be tough for them to make up on us, and they would have to win 8 and draw 1 to get the 25 they need to make it to 93.

Cardiff only need 20 though - 7 wins from their last 10 and they sit on 94. We need Derby, Brentford, Wolves and ourselves to stop them in their tracks I fear.

Wolves will only need 6 wins. They will make that.

[Brassneck]

It makes december even more frustrating/curious. One more win during would make a big difference now.

Cardiff lost four straight games during xmas.

Big frustration is how slow our start was. That should'nt have happened given we had most of last season to plan for this one.

Cardiff won their first five league games. We won one of our first seven.

By middle of September Cardiff pretty much had a 10 point head start on us so that's why it's been so tough to get infront of them.

Yep, I've taken a lot of grief on here from some for complaining about the start to the season but there really was no justification for how unprepared we looked in August.  From about Christmas last season it was obvious which league we were going to be in and time needed to be used to find a way to play that worked for us but instead we muddled through into the summer and then muddled along until the end of the window before we started trying to work out how to use the squad. Despite all my complaints at the time I don't think December was as bad, I just hate constantly playing catch-up.

We're now in a great place and look like we might make it despite the poor start but I'd love to have another 7-8 points on the board right now and be right in the mix for the title.

Where Bruce, the players, the coaches, etc all deserve huge credit is that they've finally started acting like the big dog and going into games like this knowing that if we perform they won't be good enough to handle us.  If we can keep that attitude for the rest of the season we'll get top2, if we'd had it from the summer we'd be going up with 100+ points on the board.

While I am as frustrated as the next bloke over our poor start, I can see some justification.

Firstly, we lost our main striker and had no money to replace him. We had to go with what we had which was Gabby, Hogan and young Davis. I think they had 3 goals between them in the previous season.

We then lost our playmaker a week before the season kicked off.

We struggled woefully up front, most notably at home to Hull & Boro

We also didn't bring in Snoddy until the end of the window which is another reason why we were so blunt up top in those first few matches.

There are games during the season where we sneaked wins, such as Sheff U, Sheff Wed & Boro away. Things have a habit of evening themselves out over 9 months.

It is what it is. We can only deal with what lies ahead, not what has already happened. It's pointless getting upset over it.

[Clampy]

I personally don't see the point in harping on about the past, it's happened and to me it just seems an opportunity for some people to try and justify what they were saying this season and last about the manager instead of getting behind where we are now.

We had an iffy start and we had a bad December but despite that, we're in a good place, we're looking good and we can still do it.

[Clampy]

It makes december even more frustrating/curious. One more win during would make a big difference now.

Cardiff lost four straight games during xmas.

Big frustration is how slow our start was. That should'nt have happened given we had most of last season to plan for this one.

Cardiff won their first five league games. We won one of our first seven.

By middle of September Cardiff pretty much had a 10 point head start on us so that's why it's been so tough to get infront of them.

Yep, I've taken a lot of grief on here from some for complaining about the start to the season but there really was no justification for how unprepared we looked in August.  From about Christmas last season it was obvious which league we were going to be in and time needed to be used to find a way to play that worked for us but instead we muddled through into the summer and then muddled along until the end of the window before we started trying to work out how to use the squad. Despite all my complaints at the time I don't think December was as bad, I just hate constantly playing catch-up.

We're now in a great place and look like we might make it despite the poor start but I'd love to have another 7-8 points on the board right now and be right in the mix for the title.

Where Bruce, the players, the coaches, etc all deserve huge credit is that they've finally started acting like the big dog and going into games like this knowing that if we perform they won't be good enough to handle us.  If we can keep that attitude for the rest of the season we'll get top2, if we'd had it from the summer we'd be going up with 100+ points on the board.

While I am as frustrated as the next bloke over our poor start, I can see some justification.

Firstly, we lost our main striker and had no money to replace him. We had to go with what we had which was Gabby, Hogan and young Davis. I think they had 3 goals between them in the previous season.

We then lost our playmaker a week before the season kicked off.

We struggled woefully up front, most notably at home to Hull & Boro

We also didn't bring in Snoddy until the end of the window which is another reason why we were so blunt up top in those first few matches.

There are games during the season where we sneaked wins, such as Sheff U, Sheff Wed & Boro away. Things have a habit of evening themselves out over 9 months.

It is what it is. We can only deal with what lies ahead, not what has already happened. It's pointless getting upset over it.

This.

[Mellin]

Ten games left. In the previous 10 games we have a 10 point swing on Wolves, who are obviously 7 points clear of ourselves. So not beyond the realms of possibility.

Last 10 games:

Cardiff and Fulham: 26 points
Villa: 25
Wolves: 15

If all four teams continue roughly that level of form it's going to be extremely tight.

[Toronto Villa]

I personally don't see the point in harping on about the past, it's happened and to me it just seems an opportunity for some people to try and justify what they were saying this season and last about the manager instead of getting behind where we are now.

We had an iffy start and we had a bad December but despite that, we're in a good place, we're looking good and we can still do it.

Agreed. And I’m sure every club have had their moments that they wish they could do over again. If Fulham has been great all season they’d be top but their not. And Wolves will be bricking it now despite being healthy. We can only look forward and what looked concerning after Fulham, Preston and the first half of Sheff We’d has turned around again in spectacular fashion. So we need to capitalize on the recent run and especially last night and drive to he finish line. We can’t afford any more stumbles.

[PeterWithesShin]

The start we had, and December, is so fucking annoying now. 2 wins in that lot somewhere and we would be looking favourites to win it I reckon. As it is, I think we will come tragically 3rd. I think 2nd will need 93. Which has happened twice in the last few years. To get to there we will need to win 8 of the last 10.

Fulham are flying, but an injury to Mitrovic, Sessengon or Cairney from finding things much tougher. Win on Tuesday and I think 4 points in 9 games will be tough for them to make up on us, and they would have to win 8 and draw 1 to get the 25 they need to make it to 93.

Cardiff only need 20 though - 7 wins from their last 10 and they sit on 94. We need Derby, Brentford, Wolves and ourselves to stop them in their tracks I fear.

Wolves will only need 6 wins. They will make that.

There's a difference between how many points the side in 2nd place got and how many was needed to finish top 2. 89 is the most any side finishing 3rd has got in the last decade.

There's been seasons where 79 points was enough for automatic promotion.

[ozzjim]

The start we had, and December, is so fucking annoying now. 2 wins in that lot somewhere and we would be looking favourites to win it I reckon. As it is, I think we will come tragically 3rd. I think 2nd will need 93. Which has happened twice in the last few years. To get to there we will need to win 8 of the last 10.

Fulham are flying, but an injury to Mitrovic, Sessengon or Cairney from finding things much tougher. Win on Tuesday and I think 4 points in 9 games will be tough for them to make up on us, and they would have to win 8 and draw 1 to get the 25 they need to make it to 93.

Cardiff only need 20 though - 7 wins from their last 10 and they sit on 94. We need Derby, Brentford, Wolves and ourselves to stop them in their tracks I fear.

Wolves will only need 6 wins. They will make that.

There's a difference between how many points the side in 2nd place got and how many was needed to finish top 2. 89 is the most any side finishing 3rd has got in the last decade.

There's been seasons where 79 points was enough for automatic promotion.

I accept that PWS, I was going on what the sides in second have got, my thinking being that this season with 3 clubs going into this stage in such strong form, it could well need that amount this year.

[Tokyo Sexwhale]

There's a predictor game here, if anyone fancies it:

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

You have to go back to week 35 for the cancelled games in hand.