The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[footyskillz]

Record runs would occur if Villa, Fulham and Cardiff are all going just to keep winning. That's not the case for 1 let alone 3 teams to do.
Surprised if only one of those teams go unbeaten  till end of season. And if any do then deserve to go automatic. (keeping wolves out of equation)

Consistency and momentum which all 3 have at this time  but also the element of both luck and footyskillz will provide the teams as to which go up.

[Ad@m]

Ten games left. In the previous 10 games we have a 10 point swing on Wolves, who are obviously 7 points clear of ourselves. So not beyond the realms of possibility.

Last 10 games:

Cardiff and Fulham: 26 points
Villa: 25
Wolves: 15

If all four teams continue roughly that level of form it's going to be extremely tight.

Keep up!

Yep, but Fulham, Cardiff and Villa have all had incredible recent runs.  For all 3 to keep that level up would be insane.

Last 10 games (W-D-L):

Wolves 4-3-3
Cardiff 7-2-1
Villa 8-1-1
Fulham 8-2-0

If all four averaged the same points per game for the rest of the season Wolves would finish level with Fulham on 91 points.  Cardiff would finish on 96 and us on 94.

How funny would that be?!?!

[KevinGage]

Brighton only needed 86 to claim second last year  (admittedly they made absolutely sure by securing 93).

So if that were to play out again, we'd need 17 points from our remaining 10 games.

Four home wins and two away wins out of that lot would be OK in that scenario. And is more than doable.

Requiring closer to the 92/93 mark (which increasingly looks the case) would require four home and four away.  Which is obv much harder.  We don't have the worst set of fixtures in the world. But dropping points in only two games between now and May is a tall order, to put it mildly.

[Lastfootstamper]

Brighton only needed 86 to claim second last year  (admittedly they made absolutely sure by securing 93).

So if that were to play out again, we'd need 17 points from our remaining 10 games.

Four home wins and two away wins out of that lot would be OK in that scenario. And is more than doable.

Requiring closer to the 92/93 mark (which increasingly looks the case) would require four home and four away.  Which is obv much harder.  We don't have the worst set of fixtures in the world. But dropping points in only two games between now and May is a tall order, to put it mildly.

It's what whoever finishes top two will do. And we'll be one of them.

[lovejoy]

Fulham have:
QPR H
Norwich A
Leeds H
Sheffield W A
Reading H
Brentford H
Mill wall A
Sunderland H
And a bye in the last match.

Maximum 2 draws there.

We’re going to finish 3rd.

[cdbearsfan]

There's a predictor game here, if anyone fancies it:

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

You have to go back to week 35 for the cancelled games in hand.

Looking at those games, it seems almost impossible that Wolves will fuck it up. They seem to be at home to shite every week.

Wolves 101 (C)
Villa 94 (P)
-------------------------
Cardiff 89
Fulham 88
Boro 81
Bristol City 77


-----------------------
Blose 40 (R)
Sunderland 39 (R)
Burton 31 (R)

I'll take that...

[Ads]

Fulham have:
QPR H
Norwich A
Leeds H
Sheffield W A
Reading H
Brentford H
Mill wall A
Sunderland H
And a bye in the last match.

Maximum 2 draws there.

We’re going to finish 3rd.

If they draw twice then they'll end up 4th.

[Ads]

I had us winning the show.

All this shite about Fulham, who the fuck is going to stop us?

[Andy_Lochhead_in_the_air]

On the final day if we are relying on other results it could make a difference if your opponents having something important to play for.

Millwall v Us.   6 points off the play offs. We want them having missed out or carried on their present run and already be guaranteed play offs.
SHA v Fulham.  Right now it looking like the noses will be dead and buried. We want them still in the mix needing points on the last day to survive.
Cardiff v Reading.  Reading are 6 points off the drop zone, hopefully they are dragged in and fighting for their lives on the last day.

[IFWaters]

There's a predictor game here, if anyone fancies it:

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

You have to go back to week 35 for the cancelled games in hand.

Wolves 98
Villa 93
Fulham 92
Derby 92

bumsqueak

[Lastfootstamper]

We had our "wobble" in the middle of February. Let the rest worry about us now.

[richtheholtender]

I still think Cardiff have got at least 3 wins in them. Reading, burton and a win against Derby. I think we are still going to have to win 7 of the remaining 10

[paul_e]

Fulham won't get 90 in my opinion, remember the most they can get is 95 so they need 8 wins and a draw to get there which is a massive challenge, even with the form they've been in.

Onto Cardiff, as has been mentioned they've got a tough few weeks coming up where they need 5 wins and a couple of draws.  Looking at their fixtures I suspect that's about the top limit, Brentford away is a tough game on Tuesday, followed by Derby on Sunday and they could easily drop points in both of those, if they play like they did yesterday, and give themselves a much tougher run in.  Just like Bruce, Warnock is easily capable of losing his way for a few weeks and going on a 3-4 game winless run, I really wouldn't be surprised if it happens soon.

I think Wolves will finish the season much as they're going now, they're clearly struggling under the expectation and with Bonatini looking totally out of form they're not scoring many goals (this bit has been missed in the form tables above) and I can't see that changing.  On that basis I expect them to finish with something like 91-92 points at best.


Which leaves us, I hope our wobble was cut off by coming from behind to beat Wednesday, that game felt pivotal to me, with the way we rolled over Sunderland and Wolves stemming from that.


Either way it's going to be tight and I can see all 4 finishing within 3-4 points of each other.

[Ads]

We have been giving them in recently. Since Brentford it's 12 games and 28 goals.

[Matt Collins]

The thing that could play in our favour is that over the next few games we have our game in hand over Fulham; and have some very winnable looking games while Cardiff have a run of tough games

That could give us a psychological boost

Assuming we win of course.

As others have said, it would be almost unheard of for all four of us to win 70%+ of our final 10 games

We’ve seen time and again how up and down this league is