The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Tokyo Sexwhale]

Most of the time it didn't need that many though. It's how many 3rd place got that matters.

Good point.

Average third place points (same period): 82.46
Most points for 3rd place: 89 (2005-06)
Lowest points for 3rd place: 75 (2013-14)

Given where the top four are already, 83 points for 2nd (as those stats would suggest) seems ridiculously low.

Yep, but Fulham, Cardiff and Villa have all had incredible recent runs.  For all 3 to keep that level up would be insane.

Last 10 games (W-D-L):

Wolves 4-3-3
Cardiff 7-2-1
Villa 8-1-1
Fulham 8-2-0

[Ad@m]

Most of the time it didn't need that many though. It's how many 3rd place got that matters.

Good point.

Average third place points (same period): 82.46
Most points for 3rd place: 89 (2005-06)
Lowest points for 3rd place: 75 (2013-14)

Given where the top four are already, 83 points for 2nd (as those stats would suggest) seems ridiculously low.

Yep, but Fulham, Cardiff and Villa have all had incredible recent runs.  For all 3 to keep that level up would be insane.

Last 10 games (W-D-L):

Wolves 4-3-3
Cardiff 7-2-1
Villa 8-1-1
Fulham 8-2-0

If all four averaged the same points per game for the rest of the season Wolves would finish level with Fulham on 91 points.  Cardiff would finish on 96 and us on 94.

How funny would that be?!?!

[Rudy Can't Fail]

Cardiff won't finish second, that much I know.

First?

They'll fall apart before the visit to Villa Park, starting next week. They beat the Rags today but it was hard to tell who was the team in the relegation zone they were so poor.

[Ayup]

We just now need Cardiff to sneeze which they will and we go past them. Fulham are no worry.

Fulham are behind us. Fuck them.

[Edvard Remberg]

The form of the top 4 is too strong - someone has to fall off! Please not us (still think no 1 is secured with the orange team)

[LeeB]

The form of the top 4 is too strong - someone has to fall off! Please not us (still think no 1 is secured with the orange team)

We'll be the last fuckers standing, don't worry about that.

[ChicagoLion]

Fulham have the easiest run in, Cardiff’s next 5 before they play us include Brentford Rams Blades awAy and Dogheads at Home.

[Meanwood Villa]

Grealish and Albert are key to us going up. The team is just so much more threatening with them in it. Be good if Kod can come back firing for the run in as well or would he disrupt the team?

Incidentally my predictive text wanted to put freakish for Grealish. Sums his form up in 2018!

[Ads]

It won't be as many points needed as we think. It never is.

21 more points should be enough; 6 wins and 3 draws.

Bolton
Hull
Norwich
Ipswich
Millwall

Out of those away games you'd back us to win at least 3 and avoid defeat in the other 2. I wouldn't be surprised if we win all 5.

QPR
Reading
Cardiff
Leeds
Derby

Again, we ought to win at least 3 and then it's a massive one against Cardiff. I'd back us to take 13 at least being honest.

With Grealish, Adomah and Grabban on fire, I think we're probably on for 25-26 more points which leaves us on mid-90s.

[Brassneck]

It won't be as many points needed as we think. It never is.

I'm actually beginning to think otherwise.

I can't see Fulham dropping many from their remaining games and Wolves are still good enough to hit 90 quite easily. I've no idea what Cardiff will end up with as they have some tricky, unpredictable games but looking at Fulham, they look like 7 wins out of 9 is not too much to ask from them. Wolves only need 4 wins and a couple of draws from 10 games.

I always thought that with so many sides contesting 2nd place that the points total would be lower. I now think that the team in 2nd will have to hit 90.

[Ads]

Even if that's the case, win our game in hand Tuesday and its a 2 game turnaround for them, so them dropping points will be seriously damaging.

Let's beat QPR and get that four point cushion back and put Cardiff under. I think by half 7 on Saturday we will have brought Cardiff back to within a point.

But it's about what we do. Look at those fixtures we have and there's no reason we cannot win them all. I'm not saying we Will, but there's nobody to fear and for all the talk of Fulhams roll, 31 out of 36 ain't bad.

We're starting to stick big scores on sides now too. 11 in 3 games and a better goal difference that Cardiff and Fulham.

[Brassneck]

Even if that's the case, win our game in hand Tuesday and its a 2 game turnaround for them, so them dropping points will be seriously damaging.

Let's beat QPR and get that four point cushion back and put Cardiff under. I think by half 7 on Saturday we will have brought Cardiff back to within a point.

But it's about what we do. Look at those fixtures we have and there's no reason we cannot win them all. I'm not saying we Will, but there's nobody to fear and for all the talk of Fulhams roll, 31 out of 36 ain't bad.

We're starting to stick big scores on sides now too. 11 in 3 games and a better goal difference that Cardiff and Fulham.

I agree that it's what we do. We're looking good and there seems to be a fantastic spirit among our team. As Brucie said on Friday, let's enjoy it.

[olaftab]

Crucial that we beat QPR. After that next 4 should be doable and then we are in the mega week when we play Cardiff and Leeds within 4 days. We need to be in striking distance when those games are played.

[SoccerHQ]

Think I said on here or elsewhere a few weeks back that I wanted 70 points by the end of play of the Wolves game.

Was disappointed we'd fallen one short until I remember the QPR game was part of that group so we win that and we'd be 2 points better off than I thought we'd be so in good shape regardless of what Cardiff are doing.

[Matt Collins]

Fulham are in amazing form

It would be a huge achievement to sustain this for another ten games. Even with seemingly easy fixtures

Plus win our game in hand and we’re four points clear I believe?