The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[SoccerHQ]

Think Fulham will hit 90 points as they've had a very hard last 6 games and won 5 of them. Nicked a good win today up at Preston.

Still work for us to do.

[Lastfootstamper]

Plenty still to go in all this. So many games involving the top six. Apart from Fulham.

So us and Fulham to finish top two. You heard it here first.

[olaftab]

We just now need Cardiff to sneeze which they will and we go past them. Fulham are no worry.

[SoccerHQ]

We just now need Cardiff to sneeze which they will and we go past them. Fulham are no worry.

Fulham's going to win most of their games in the run in so a slip or two from us and they'll be in.

[Tokyo Sexwhale]

Points required for 2nd place over the since 2004:

Season   Runner-up
2004–05   Wigan Athletic 87
2005–06   Sheffield United 90
2006–07   Birmingham City 86
2007–08   Stoke City 79
2008–09   Birmingham City 83
2009–10   West Bromwich Albion 91
2010–11   Norwich City1 84
2011–12   Southampton 88
2012–13   Hull City 79
2013–14   Burnley 93
2014–15   Watford 89
2015–16   Middlesbrough 89
2016–17   Brighton & Hove Albion 93

93 seems to be an outlier, and the chase is a lot more competitive this season.  If we can get 7 wins (or equivalent) that would get us to 90 points.  I think that would be enough, especially if one of those wins is against Cardiff.

The average over that period though is 87 points (6 more wins or equivalent), but that would be very squeaky given our run-in.

[PeterWithesShin]

Most of the time it didn't need that many though. It's how many 3rd place got that matters.

[Matt Collins]

Fulham’s fixtures look bloody easy on paper

Let’s hope they bottle it

Really do think Cardiff will fall away

A wolves collapse would be very nice indeed 

[PeterWithesShin]

Cardiff have Derby and Brentford away next week. If they win both of those then it's going to be really tough.

[SoccerHQ]

Cardiff have Derby and Brentford away next week. If they win both of those then it's going to be really tough.

Start of April they have Sheffield United away, Wolves home and then us away three days later. They then finish up in Norwich.

I've always looked at that two week period when we would overhaul them. I still expect that to happen.

[Tokyo Sexwhale]

Most of the time it didn't need that many though. It's how many 3rd place got that matters.

Good point.

Average third place points (same period): 82.46
Most points for 3rd place: 89 (2005-06)
Lowest points for 3rd place: 75 (2013-14)

[Ad@m]

Most of the time it didn't need that many though. It's how many 3rd place got that matters.

Good point.

Average third place points (same period): 82.46
Most points for 3rd place: 89 (2005-06)
Lowest points for 3rd place: 75 (2013-14)

Given where the top four are already, 83 points for 2nd (as those stats would suggest) seems ridiculously low.

[SoccerHQ]

It will be 90 points. We need to be targeting that. 7 more wins.

[leylandalbion]

Most of the time it didn't need that many though. It's how many 3rd place got that matters.

Good point.

Average third place points (same period): 82.46
Most points for 3rd place: 89 (2005-06)
Lowest points for 3rd place: 75 (2013-14)

Given where the top four are already, 83 points for 2nd (as those stats would suggest) seems ridiculously low.

I would imagine that with the pressure the top teams start losing games about now.  Weren't Brighton and castle miles ahead last year and then started dropping points?

[Matt Collins]

Cardiff have Derby and Brentford away next week. If they win both of those then it's going to be really tough.

Start of April they have Sheffield United away, Wolves home and then us away three days later. They then finish up in Norwich.

I've always looked at that two week period when we would overhaul them. I still expect that to happen.

Their next four away games are Brentford, Derby, villa and Sheffield United

Home games v Burton and wolves

If they’re still top two after that I’ll be worried

[Rudy65]

Cardiff have Derby and Brentford away next week. If they win both of those then it's going to be really tough.

Start of April they have Sheffield United away, Wolves home and then us away three days later. They then finish up in Norwich.

I've always looked at that two week period when we would overhaul them. I still expect that to happen.

Their next four away games are Brentford, Derby, villa and Sheffield United

Home games v Burton and wolves

If they’re still top two after that I’ll be worried

That’s tough. For them