The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[ChicagoLion]

The numbers are absolutely against us now for automatic as our manager is not capable of delivering about  2.5 points per game from remaining 24 matches.

Bloody hell. Is that what we need? I appreciate we're currently 10 points behind Cardiff, 7 if we can beat them at Villa Park and of course we're now relying on them dropping points but is it really that bad?

Not quite. We need 2.3 points per game on average for the rest of the season to finish with a season average of 2 points per game. So 2 wins and a draw from every three games.

Absolutely nothing I've seen since Bruce took over tells me he's capable of that so at best we're looking at the playoffs.

I know it would be ridiculous to an outsider to sack him now but we've literally got nothing to lose. He's shown he can't beat the other top teams in this division so we may as well boot him and give someone the chance to get us playing in a manner that could get us through the playoffs.

Gets my vote.

[olaftab]

Adam is more accurate based on previous seasons stats however I was compensating for Wolves and Cardiff being able to get to about 97 points much easier than us. But even if it is 92 Bruce  will not deliver 55 points from 24 games. At his best he has only managed 1.8

[eamonn]

Can we not do it by average amount of points second place has got in the past decades?

[McGraths Dry Cleaning]

The numbers are absolutely against us now for automatic as our manager is not capable of delivering about  2.5 points per game from remaining 24 matches.

Bloody hell. Is that what we need? I appreciate we're currently 10 points behind Cardiff, 7 if we can beat them at Villa Park and of course we're now relying on them dropping points but is it really that bad?

Not quite. We need 2.3 points per game on average for the rest of the season to finish with a season average of 2 points per game. So 2 wins and a draw from every three games.

Absolutely nothing I've seen since Bruce took over tells me he's capable of that so at best we're looking at the playoffs.

I know it would be ridiculous to an outsider to sack him now but we've literally got nothing to lose. He's shown he can't beat the other top teams in this division so we may as well boot him and give someone the chance to get us playing in a manner that could get us through the playoffs.

Gets my vote.

And mine - hes been here long enough to demonstrate he isn't up to it.

[Ad@m]

Can we not do it by average amount of points second place has got in the past decades?

That's what I was working on. Automatic promotion from this league almost always requires 2 points per game.

[Toronto Villa]

I’m at a point now of just not wanting to support Bruce in the market on more of his type of player. I’m pretty convinced that even with a new manager we will have enough to make the playoffs. I’d rather give another manager a shot at doing this long term.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

I know it would be ridiculous to an outsider to sack him now but we've literally got nothing to lose. He's shown he can't beat the other top teams in this division so we may as well boot him and give someone the chance to get us playing in a manner that could get us through the playoffs.

I'd prefer to wait until we have a larger pool to choose from than risk it now until there was a stand out candidate. It's why I thought he should have gone in May last year.

As for not beating those teams around us, it seems to be the norm with Bruce's team. Looking at his last spell at Hull he managed 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 games against the other teams in the Top 6. Still, he managed to get them into the play offs where they beat Derby away 3-0 before losing 2-0 at home, then 1-0 at Wembley against Sheff Weds. From what I've read, the Hull fans weren't too disappointed when he left. Maybe that had higher expectations than merely just getting promoted. Another stat that is hard to avoid is from 46 games, only 5 times did his team score more than twice all season.

He is what he is, a partly stale, white, thick sliced, cheese sandwich with not butter, salad or any other frills, just a sprinkling of luck. He gets the job done just don't expect to be impressed. Nice chap though.

[Toronto Villa]

And if you take those metrics into the PL where the overall standard is much better you begin to quickly realize why he doesn’t have the ability to compete and often gets relegated. He freezes vs better teams and is almost subservient. It’s a belief and confidence thing. Others like Warnock or Pardew are a little like that too but their overall arrogance/self belief means not to the same extent.

[berneboy]

The numbers are absolutely against us now for automatic as our manager is not capable of delivering about  2.5 points per game from remaining 24 matches.

Bloody hell. Is that what we need? I appreciate we're currently 10 points behind Cardiff, 7 if we can beat them at Villa Park and of course we're now relying on them dropping points but is it really that bad?

Not quite. We need 2.3 points per game on average for the rest of the season to finish with a season average of 2 points per game. So 2 wins and a draw from every three games.

Absolutely nothing I've seen since Bruce took over tells me he's capable of that so at best we're looking at the playoffs.

I know it would be ridiculous to an outsider to sack him now but we've literally got nothing to lose. He's shown he can't beat the other top teams in this division so we may as well boot him and give someone the chance to get us playing in a manner that could get us through the playoffs.

Gets my vote.

And mine.

[curiousorange]

I suppose the fair time to bin him is if we're out of the running for promotion altogether. Unless his contract stipulates automatic promotion, we'll be in the mix for the playoffs for a good number of weeks yet. Change it before that time and you'll never know how the dynamic of the season will be affected.

[eamonn]

Can we not do it by average amount of points second place has got in the past decades?

That's what I was working on. Automatic promotion from this league almost always requires 2 points per game.

Fair enough, cheers. Play-offs or more upheaval and another year here it is then.

[chrisw1]

I’m at a point now of just not wanting to support Bruce in the market on more of his type of player. I’m pretty convinced that even with a new manager we will have enough to make the playoffs. I’d rather give another manager a shot at doing this long term.

Any ideas as to who would be capable and come to us at this time of the season?

We can absolutely discount the likes of Dyche, Wagner etc.  I don't think any Premier League or Championship manager worth looking at would jump ship right now.  Personally I don't think Koeman would come.

This isn't a defending Bruce post, just wondered who people think we could get right now who would do a better job.

[IFWaters]

Can we not do it by average amount of points second place has got in the past decades?

That's what I was working on. Automatic promotion from this league almost always requires 2 points per game.

Fair enough, cheers. Play-offs or more upheaval and another year here it is then.

Statto here, there has never been a season since the current 24 team league started that 2 points a match, ie 92 points wouldnt have got you automatic promotion. Its as close to a guarantee as you will get statistically. So that has to remain the target until its mathematically impossible.

That now means 55 points from 24 games, 2.3 points a game.
Put alternatively it means 17 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats, which I would see as impossible now.

The same measure, to guarantee a playoff place, is 80 points, no-one has achieved that and not made it to the knockout bit.
That means 43 points from 24 games, 1.75 points a game.
Alternatively 12 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats, not too different to our current record.

[eamonn]

How about something in between, 86, would that do?

[olaftab]

Yes 86 is possible for automatic however that requires Cardiff and possibly Bristol city to drop 10 more points than us and also and average slightly below 1.75 points per game. That seems possible but unlikely.