The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[sickbeggar]

We won't catch Wolves now, 4+ games to bridge 13 points is a huge amount to make up in half a season, especially when we're not prolific goal scorers.

Have to agree unless we go on some record type run. Sheff u home next, who's form makes ours look good. If we don't win that one........

[Meanwood Villa]

Now that we're in the playoff places surely remaining there is the minimum requirement although we'll need to start winning again pretry soon. Automatic is looking a big ask. One of Wolves and Cardiff need to blow up.

[Toronto Villa]

Wolves and Cardiff have too much momentum now to fuck this up. We need to ensure we have enough about us to secure a playoff spot and are on a hot streak leading into it. I’m looking for a silver lining somewhere. Anywhere.

[Abbeyfealeavfc]

For me this season was all about auto promotion. Unfortunately we've been found to be sadly lacking. To be in the mix (based on Brighton's stats from last season) we needed at least 8 points from the first 6 games, but failed by 2 and at least 21 points from 11 games, again failing by 2. We then needed at least 48 points from 22 games, but have failed by an alarming 11 points! Fair play to Cardiff who have got to within one point of the target and Wolves who have exceeded it by 3. The next target for 34 games is at least 71 points. We need 34 points from the next 36, just to be in the mix!!!! Even if Cardiff start falling away, we are not even close enough (like Bristol or Derby) to take advantage.
Some people will be happy with being in a play-off position. If we were to get promoted through them, then of course I would be happy, but they are a lottery and I'm sh-t at playing the lottery. Besides we still have to prove we're good enough to stay in the play-off positions. Over to you Bruce, as you were the one who intimated Villa fans, who could see what was happening, were being hysterical and obviously you know best!

[Des Little]

I think our best bet is to play a striker in the striker’s position. It could just work.

[preston28]

Wolves and Cardiff have too much momentum now to fuck this up. We need to ensure we have enough about us to secure a playoff spot and are on a hot streak leading into it. I’m looking for a silver lining somewhere. Anywhere.

I think we wont catch Wolves but I think Cardiff may implode at some point particularly if they pick up a couple of injuries. Strange things happen in sport and we cant give up on getting second spot at least!  Having said that our next 4 games are very important to pick up some momentum that we've lost!

[Ad@m]

Wolves and Cardiff have too much momentum now to fuck this up. We need to ensure we have enough about us to secure a playoff spot and are on a hot streak leading into it. I’m looking for a silver lining somewhere. Anywhere.

I think we wont catch Wolves but I think Cardiff may implode at some point particularly if they pick up a couple of injuries. Strange things happen in sport and we cant give up on getting second spot at least!  Having said that our next 4 games are very important to pick up some momentum that we've lost!

They've already had their injuries - their best players are starting to come back now.

[VillaAlways]

Wolves and Cardiff have too much momentum now to fuck this up. We need to ensure we have enough about us to secure a playoff spot and are on a hot streak leading into it. I’m looking for a silver lining somewhere. Anywhere.

I think we wont catch Wolves but I think Cardiff may implode at some point particularly if they pick up a couple of injuries. Strange things happen in sport and we cant give up on getting second spot at least!  Having said that our next 4 games are very important to pick up some momentum that we've lost!

Why do you think they’re going to implode? Warnock has got an equally if not better record of getting teams up as Bruce has

[sickbeggar]

To my mind the only team that's imploded through injuries so far is sheff united. All the rest seem quite capable of coping with an average amount of injuries. We have been unlucky in a way because your best forward and best defender being injured would disrupt any club, though i'm not sure how much disruption is due to Bruce being unable to change his system to accommodate the "non-bruce" type players

[preston28]

Wolves and Cardiff have too much momentum now to fuck this up. We need to ensure we have enough about us to secure a playoff spot and are on a hot streak leading into it. I’m looking for a silver lining somewhere. Anywhere.

I think we wont catch Wolves but I think Cardiff may implode at some point particularly if they pick up a couple of injuries. Strange things happen in sport and we cant give up on getting second spot at least!  Having said that our next 4 games are very important to pick up some momentum that we've lost!

Why do you think they’re going to implode? Warnock has got an equally if not better record of getting teams up as Bruce has

No reason - just a hope! Perhaps implode was the wrong phrase - perhaps better to say I hope they hit a bad run!

[ChicagoLion]

For me this season was all about auto promotion. Unfortunately we've been found to be sadly lacking. To be in the mix (based on Brighton's stats from last season) we needed at least 8 points from the first 6 games, but failed by 2 and at least 21 points from 11 games, again failing by 2. We then needed at least 48 points from 22 games, but have failed by an alarming 11 points! Fair play to Cardiff who have got to within one point of the target and Wolves who have exceeded it by 3. The next target for 34 games is at least 71 points. We need 34 points from the next 36, just to be in the mix!!!!

This is the stark reality of where we are now, winning 10 out of 12 is not going to happen based on form and the way we play.

[Toronto Villa]

Wolves and Cardiff have too much momentum now to fuck this up. We need to ensure we have enough about us to secure a playoff spot and are on a hot streak leading into it. I’m looking for a silver lining somewhere. Anywhere.

I think we wont catch Wolves but I think Cardiff may implode at some point particularly if they pick up a couple of injuries. Strange things happen in sport and we cant give up on getting second spot at least!  Having said that our next 4 games are very important to pick up some momentum that we've lost!

Why do you think they’re going to implode? Warnock has got an equally if not better record of getting teams up as Bruce has

Agreed. Colin Wanker for all his faults has a very impressive record operating outside of the PL.

[olaftab]

The numbers are absolutely against us now for automatic as our manager is not capable of delivering about  2.5 points per game from remaining 24 matches. Best hope is now to maintain play off position.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

The numbers are absolutely against us now for automatic as our manager is not capable of delivering about  2.5 points per game from remaining 24 matches.

Bloody hell. Is that what we need? I appreciate we're currently 10 points behind Cardiff, 7 if we can beat them at Villa Park and of course we're now relying on them dropping points but is it really that bad?

[Ad@m]

The numbers are absolutely against us now for automatic as our manager is not capable of delivering about  2.5 points per game from remaining 24 matches.

Bloody hell. Is that what we need? I appreciate we're currently 10 points behind Cardiff, 7 if we can beat them at Villa Park and of course we're now relying on them dropping points but is it really that bad?

Not quite. We need 2.3 points per game on average for the rest of the season to finish with a season average of 2 points per game. So 2 wins and a draw from every three games.

Absolutely nothing I've seen since Bruce took over tells me he's capable of that so at best we're looking at the playoffs.

I know it would be ridiculous to an outsider to sack him now but we've literally got nothing to lose. He's shown he can't beat the other top teams in this division so we may as well boot him and give someone the chance to get us playing in a manner that could get us through the playoffs.