The Takeover Thread - Recon Group - NOW WITH NEW POLL

[Dave]

We paid £600k for Guzan, Richards was on a free transfer, Bacuna cost £3m and Gabby didn't cost anything in terms of transfer fee. We'll easily make that back on them. Hutton and Lescott probably not.

Bacuna cost under a million, didn't he?

A million euros according to the club we signed him from.

[Mister E]

That is the issue, Chicago, that is going to be kicked into the long grass by the advisors of the new owners.  It will be too tempting to think that the problem players can be made to change their ways than to pay good money to be rid of them.

It depends on the advisors. If they know what the hell they're doing, they will have already identified where the cash-flow issues are and have several payroll items on the schedule that will eventually determine the final purchase price.
If I were them, I'd be very aggressive about the contingent liabilities that exist at VP!

[RussellC]

We paid £600k for Guzan, Richards was on a free transfer, Bacuna cost £3m and Gabby didn't cost anything in terms of transfer fee. We'll easily make that back on them. Hutton and Lescott probably not.

Bacuna cost under a million, didn't he?

A million euros according to the club we signed him from.

Although the true cost of employing such terrible footballers far exceeds the original transfer-fees paid for them and salaries paid since.

We're not going to get anywhere close to 'breaking-even' on ridding ourselves of the deadwood this summer. of the deadwood

[old man villa fan]

The problems prospective purchasers will have over and above the purchase price are
1 The gap between the future revenue and expenditure which is predominantly player wages.
2.The liabilities arising out of the players contracts.
3. The cost of satisfying those player contracts including write offs.
4 The cost of financing new players Fees and wages.

I am sure if they worked hard enough on negotiations they could get rid of Guzan, Hutton, Richards, Lescott, Bacuna and Gabby for a nett cost to the Club of £5m, maybe closer to break even.  At £5m, that is the equivalent of £100k a week, which is less than Richards and Gabby's wages now.

That would be a great base to attack points 1 to 3 that you have listed.

to pay off Gabbys contract I think is about is £6 million if there are 2 years left.
No idea how you think they could get rid of that lot for £5 mil.

You do not have to pay them all off.  We will certainly have to pay some 'sweeteners' to get some of the players to move but I think we would break even on Guzan, Hutton, Lescott and Bacuna.  I think there will be interest in Richards and he will want to leave.  It depends on how much we get for him, what reduction in wages are written in their contracts and whether Gabby will stick out for a full pay off.  This is how I got to £5m and how it could be closer to break even.

i have no idea how we would break even on those players, let's hope there are some real fools out there.

We never managed to break even on Ireland, NZogbia, Bent or any of the other 'bomb squad' type players and there's little prospect of us doing so now with the shite we've amassed in this squad.

Different argument.

How so?  A bunch of over paid players who are shit.  We won't come close to breaking even, particularly if you are chucking Gabby into the mix.

You are talking about selling price v buying price.  I was talking about how much it will take for us to get rid of them i.e. anything we get in from transfer fees v money we have to pay players to accept lower wages elsewhere and/or paying up contracts.

[robbo1874]

That is the issue, Chicago, that is going to be kicked into the long grass by the advisors of the new owners.  It will be too tempting to think that the problem players can be made to change their ways than to pay good money to be rid of them.

It depends on the advisors. If they know what the hell they're doing, they will have already identified where the cash-flow issues are and have several payroll items on the schedule that will eventually determine the final purchase price.
If I were them, I'd be very aggressive about the contingent liabilities that exist at VP!

exactly mate. Unless there's a sudden bidding war (highly unlikely in my view, but who really knows?), then any potential investors would be mad to make a bid unless they're sure the price is rock-bottom. The facts:

1. Randy clearly wants out and it's been widely reported

2. We're massively in the shit and need to get rid of a number of high earning rotten apples in order to progress and also get in a whole new management/ coaching team

If I was a billionaire looking to invest in an English football club, I'd just wait until Lerner came round my house crying on my doorstep, begging me to buy him out.

[old man villa fan]

Anybody that is going to pay upwards of £50m on Villa in the state we are in, will not be paying it to remain in the Championship.  Also, they will know that they will have to invest a fair amount on changing the squad.

[mr underhill]

I honestly think Randy would be lucky to get £50m ; this is a desperate fire sale and as Robbo said, anyone worth their salt would be squeezing Lerner until the pips squeaked.

[Hillbilly]

There was a chart in today's Guardian showing the points accrued across the season. The focus was on Leicester and Spurs but what was also noticeable was one team who flatlined from game 25 onwards. Almost like life support had been pulled. Basically whoever takes over will need a miracle to raise the dead.

[mr underhill]

So what we need is Jesus with a big wedge burning a hole in his trouser pocket?

[Des Little]

So what we need is Jesus with a big wedge burning a hole in his trouser pocket?

Yes.  Do you know this man?

[gpbarr]

I'm sure there are interested parties but frankly, that's irrelevant. Most of them won't get anywhere near a bid.

The real issue here (and it's bad news for us) is that unless it's a tycoon who regards the difference between $50 and $75m as chump change, any buyer is going to a) struggle to agree a price with Lerner, and then b) struggle to invest enough to turn the club around - in transfer fees, wages, severance, coaching staff etc.

If the interested parties were of the former ilk (tycoons) then this would all have been wrapped up by now. So they aren't. Which means category b). Which means we are in for more disappointment.

[robbo1874]

The only real value we have as a business at the moment is the infrastructure- cracking ground and state of the art training ground; and our brand.

Our playing staff, collectively are a huge liability currently, in financial terms. We'd be lucky to raise enough from selling what decent players we have left, to afford to be able to pay off the deadwood. And it's essential that we do this in order to get a clean slate.

I'm no expert by any means, but I'd value the club roughly at whatever the ground and BH are worth, minus the ongoing financial liabilities of the current first team squad, bar 5 or 6 players; and whatever debts randy decides he wants to call in.

When you boil it down like that,  then what would you be likely to bid in all honesty?

Next to fuck all would be my opening gambit.

[Des Little]

Anyone got Michael Neville's number?

[robbo1874]

In my view, the really scary thing about all of this is that, as a club, we're now in the kind of price bracket where any old two bit shysters could raise enough to come in and takeover. We all know things are currently very shit with randy in charge, but just imagine the amount of strife someone like the Venkys or Carsen Yeung could cause if randy just pulled the pin and ran away (which I seriously think he may do).

[David_Nab]

In my view, the really scary thing about all of this is that, as a club, we're now in the kind of price bracket where any old two bit shysters could raise enough to come in and takeover. We all know things are currently very shit with randy in charge, but just imagine the amount of strife someone like the Venkys or Carsen Yeung could cause if randy just pulled the pin and ran away (which I seriously think he may do).

Randy has relegated us in worse fashion than those 2 owners conspiring to break records  no clubs wants along the way ( I read today that if we lose to Newcastle we would be first club in Prem league eara to go through season and lose to every other club )

Randy might have meant well but the dozy bastard has made a right tits up of it so I'll take my chances with anyone at this point