The Takeover Thread - Recon Group - NOW WITH NEW POLL

[in exile]

I said some time ago he would struggle to get over £50 if relegated.

£50?
Lets have a whip 'round

[CJ]

Given that Morgan can't get £30m for Wolves, that figure in the Sun may not be too far out

[Dante Lavelli]

Given that Morgan can't get £30m for Wolves, that figure in the Sun may not be too far out

Jeeze - surely if you want to make some money then Villa/Wolves would be a good way to go about it.  The comparative risk/reward of a  £50m big championship club versus £150m on a small club which happens to be in the PL seems much better value. 

[billybobbell]

What I dont understand about the takeover is the fact that each time there seems to be a decent look into the club by anyone, they run a mile.  It's almost as if there are some undisclosed skeletons lurking in the closet.  Why did Bernstein and King go so quickly?  What scared them?

As I am a conspiracy theorist I'm thinking that maybe they've put in place some kind of clause that guarantees Doug Ellis £25m for life or some kind of profit share with him and his family should we ever start making any money.  Either that or Lerner's set-up some kind of complex financing web to extract value from the club ad infinitum a la Glasgow Rangers.  Otherwise the deal would have been done by now because there's enough value there on paper with the ground, the training facilities and a shortening list of over-paid donkeys.

Does anyone have copies of the last few years report and accounts they could post up?

[ChicagoLion]

The problems prospective purchasers will have over and above the purchase price are
1 The gap between the future revenue and expenditure which is predominantly player wages.
2.The liabilities arising out of the players contracts.
3. The cost of satisfying those player contracts including write offs.
4 The cost of financing new players Fees and wages.

[conman]

The problems prospective purchasers will have over and above the purchase price are
1 The gap between the future revenue and expenditure which is predominantly player wages.
2.The liabilities arising out of the players contracts.
3. The cost of satisfying those player contracts including write offs.
4 The cost of financing new players Fees and wages.

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/galleries/4546/Every-Aston-Villa-player-s-weekly-wages-revealed-sportgalleries/1-Charles-N-Zogbia-55-000-a-week-2-apps-0-goals-500308

[old man villa fan]

The problems prospective purchasers will have over and above the purchase price are
1 The gap between the future revenue and expenditure which is predominantly player wages.
2.The liabilities arising out of the players contracts.
3. The cost of satisfying those player contracts including write offs.
4 The cost of financing new players Fees and wages.

I am sure if they worked hard enough on negotiations they could get rid of Guzan, Hutton, Richards, Lescott, Bacuna and Gabby for a nett cost to the Club of £5m, maybe closer to break even.  At £5m, that is the equivalent of £100k a week, which is less than Richards and Gabby's wages now.

That would be a great base to attack points 1 to 3 that you have listed.

[ChicagoLion]

The problems prospective purchasers will have over and above the purchase price are
1 The gap between the future revenue and expenditure which is predominantly player wages.
2.The liabilities arising out of the players contracts.
3. The cost of satisfying those player contracts including write offs.
4 The cost of financing new players Fees and wages.

I am sure if they worked hard enough on negotiations they could get rid of Guzan, Hutton, Richards, Lescott, Bacuna and Gabby for a nett cost to the Club of £5m, maybe closer to break even.  At £5m, that is the equivalent of £100k a week, which is less than Richards and Gabby's wages now.

That would be a great base to attack points 1 to 3 that you have listed.

to pay off Gabbys contract I think is about is £6 million if there are 2 years left.
No idea how you think they could get rid of that lot for £5 mil.

[old man villa fan]

The problems prospective purchasers will have over and above the purchase price are
1 The gap between the future revenue and expenditure which is predominantly player wages.
2.The liabilities arising out of the players contracts.
3. The cost of satisfying those player contracts including write offs.
4 The cost of financing new players Fees and wages.

I am sure if they worked hard enough on negotiations they could get rid of Guzan, Hutton, Richards, Lescott, Bacuna and Gabby for a nett cost to the Club of £5m, maybe closer to break even.  At £5m, that is the equivalent of £100k a week, which is less than Richards and Gabby's wages now.

That would be a great base to attack points 1 to 3 that you have listed.

to pay off Gabbys contract I think is about is £6 million if there are 2 years left.
No idea how you think they could get rid of that lot for £5 mil.

You do not have to pay them all off.  We will certainly have to pay some 'sweeteners' to get some of the players to move but I think we would break even on Guzan, Hutton, Lescott and Bacuna.  I think there will be interest in Richards and he will want to leave.  It depends on how much we get for him, what reduction in wages are written in their contracts and whether Gabby will stick out for a full pay off.  This is how I got to £5m and how it could be closer to break even.

[johnny from donny]

Quick question, does the club owe Randy  money?  I know he's converted some debt into equity (or at least I think he has, I could be mistaken) but could a stumbling block to negotiations be him saying " You can buy the club for  £75m (or whatever figure you believe) but the club owes me £xxxxxxxxx and I want that paid up in full" ?
The headline purchase price would indeed seem cheap but wouldn't represent the actual outlay required to buy the club.

[Mister E]

The problems prospective purchasers will have over and above the purchase price are
1 The gap between the future revenue and expenditure which is predominantly player wages.
2.The liabilities arising out of the players contracts.
3. The cost of satisfying those player contracts including write offs.
4 The cost of financing new players Fees and wages.

Yes, and all that will be factored into the price.
If Lerner sells for £80-100m, the club would be valued at purchase price plus the acknowledged liabilities, in terms of the player contracts.
The established player-liabilities are a 'known' for the would-be purchaser, as long as they have a half-decent football advisor on their side.
Which Lerner obviously didn't when he bought.

[mr underhill]

I can't shake the feeling that this  is all TBAR-type BS and we're fooked.

[Des Little]

I can't shake the feeling that this  is all TBAR-type BS and we're fooked.

Same. It's a well trodden path from what I can see.

[ChicagoLion]

Quick question, does the club owe Randy  money?  I know he's converted some debt into equity (or at least I think he has, I could be mistaken) but could a stumbling block to negotiations be him saying " You can buy the club for  £75m (or whatever figure you believe) but the club owes me £xxxxxxxxx and I want that paid up in full" ?
The headline purchase price would indeed seem cheap but wouldn't represent the actual outlay required to buy the club.

its irrelevant, Randy will sell for whatever he will sell for, the way his investment and loans are allocated does not matter except for tax implications.

[ChicagoLion]

The problems prospective purchasers will have over and above the purchase price are
1 The gap between the future revenue and expenditure which is predominantly player wages.
2.The liabilities arising out of the players contracts.
3. The cost of satisfying those player contracts including write offs.
4 The cost of financing new players Fees and wages.

I am sure if they worked hard enough on negotiations they could get rid of Guzan, Hutton, Richards, Lescott, Bacuna and Gabby for a nett cost to the Club of £5m, maybe closer to break even.  At £5m, that is the equivalent of £100k a week, which is less than Richards and Gabby's wages now.

That would be a great base to attack points 1 to 3 that you have listed.

to pay off Gabbys contract I think is about is £6 million if there are 2 years left.
No idea how you think they could get rid of that lot for £5 mil.

You do not have to pay them all off.  We will certainly have to pay some 'sweeteners' to get some of the players to move but I think we would break even on Guzan, Hutton, Lescott and Bacuna.  I think there will be interest in Richards and he will want to leave.  It depends on how much we get for him, what reduction in wages are written in their contracts and whether Gabby will stick out for a full pay off.  This is how I got to £5m and how it could be closer to break even.

i have no idea how we would break even on those players, let's hope there are some real fools out there.