Villa predictions for 2012/13 (fans & media)

[robbo1874]

If we go well this season, there are probably only 4 teams who you could say are guaranteed to finish higher than us based on their squads and we know who they are.

Outside that, its really a lottery I think. We've got a new manager, so have Spurs and Liverpool. Newcastle are the only other 'big' club and perhaps Everton outside the top 4  to have retained any continuity and stability from last season.

On this basis, I think 6th is realistically the highest we can expect if we have a good season.

If we have an OK season, you'd maybe expect Liverpool, Spurs and Everton to finish above us too, which would leave us 9th.

Even if we have a shocker, l can't see us doing any worse than last season so maybe 14th, worst case.

Personally, I think we'll have an OK season and finish around 9th place. We've a decent (if a bit thin still) squad and a good management team. Injuries will be inevitable and we'll probably still have to contend with our post-christmas annual slump.

But it looks a lot better going into this season than either of the previous two seasons, for sure.

[frank black]

League 12th-13th
Fa cup out to Man u early doors
League cup quarter finals

[hilts_coolerking]

A nice, uneventful season ending in 10th-ish with a couple of heroic wins over top 3 opponents and some positive attacking football is all I ask.

[Chipsticks]

FourFourTwo's Villa Preview:

ASTON VILLA – Simon Lucas

Last season in a tweet

Inhibited, insipid, humiliatingly unambitious football, cravenly defensive even when behind. Never has a Villa side been so easy to dislike.

Positive changes
The departure of a manager who combined cramped, tedious football with dismal results is a big boost. The appointment of a manager young and thrusting enough to be called a whizz-kid is bigger still. The wage-bill has been trimmed by the off-loading of some over-paid, under-achieving players, while replacements have been identified and signed with a good deal more alacrity than Villa fans are used to. The poisonous atmosphere that permeated every aspect of the club towards the end of last season (statistically one of the very worst in Villa’s entire 138-year history) is gone for now.   

Negative changes

Villa are still paying decent money to under-achievers (Stephen Ireland) and to straightforward liabilities (Alan Hutton). The need to further trim the squad before any more new players can be brought in has become doctrine over the summer. And while the owner is taciturn at the best of times, ever since the Alex McLeish fiasco reached critical mass his silence has been deafening – the only time you’ll hear the name ‘Randy Lerner’ at the moment is when the media reports on the possible sale of one of his professional sports clubs. Oh, and club captain Stilyan Petrov isn’t out of the woods yet.

Who to follow on Twitter

@AVFCBlog (sample tweet: “for what it’s worth the new home kit is claret and blue”) is nicely opinionated, deliciously intolerant of criticism and seems very well-informed – the Karim El Ahmadi Arrousi transfer was news here days in advance of any other source. @JohnGregory77 (sample tweet: “Doug wanted me to win PL and CL and then the Euros in Holland in 2000. Apart from that not much really…”) is exactly what you’d expect: a touch jingoistic, self-regarding and self-deprecating, and with an overwhelming Bruce Springsteen fetish.   

What to watch out for
The Villa Academy has done sterling work over the last few years: Marc Albrighton, Barry Bannan and Ciaran Clark have all established themselves, to a lesser or greater extent, in the past couple of seasons. This season hopes are high for Gary (brother of Craig) Gardner and the superbly named Samir Carruthers. Other than that, it’d be nice to think Villa will actively attempt to give the ball to Darren Bent, rather than following last season’s pattern of leaving the best centre-forward they’ve had in 15 years all on his own and ignoring him.

[eric woolban woolban]

In the People pull out for the forthcoming season, cheeky sod Jimmy Greaves thinks we'll be in another relegation battle and Lambert will surprisingly be the first manager sacked.

Are you back on the bottle Jimmy?

[PeterWithesShin]

Speculation? Yes. Will all prophecies below come to pass? Maybe not.

The thing is - every single forecast about every single game in the history of football is pure speculation. Some get it right more often than others. Some never get it right. I don't fair too badly to be honest.

And so - be they right by next May, or wrong, my own take on the PL's top trio, and those Championship bound.

Top of the tree!

1. Manchester United
2. Arsenal
3. Manchester City

With 2011/12 finishing City / United / Arsenal the obvious difference come the end of the upcoming season is not so much City giving the title back to United - it is just as much about Arsenal's very impressive line up as we go into 2012/13 finally getting it right, gelling and pushing for the title all the way.

Manchester United - not selected just because I am a United fan - will finish top because history really does repeat itself. No team in the English game has ever been able to keep coming back as often or as powerful as do Manchester United, yet, to some extent 2012/13 will be just as much about City throwing away the title as it is about United winning it.

City have a formidable array of talent now playing in blue but absolutely zero experience in retention of a title - perhaps with the exception of Carlos Tevez who is a loose cannon at the best of times - and there are some massive egos now having to make-do with bench starts. Implosion due methinks but still enough on he bench to make 3rd.

Arsenal meanwhile could even pip United at the end, but their weakest link will prove to be the manager Arsene Wenger. He has delivered so little of late, is getting on in years and patience is wearing thin at the Emirates. This could be their year if Lady Luck smiles down, but for now, I will go with a 1 / 2 / 3 of experience trumping new talent trumping player egos getting the better of a still inexperienced manager.

And doomed for relegation!

18. Aston Villa
19. West Ham United
20. Southampton

In recent years the relegation battles have been all about whether or not Bolton, Blackburn and Wolves could escape the drop. Almost from Day 1, these three have existed solely to survive the end of season relegation to the Championship - but now, with all three having gone down - deservedly considering the football they play, the 2012/13 season will be one centered on the struggle for survival of two southern teams, and one from the Midlands.

Villa have of course been flirting with second tier football for a while and having made no significant changes to their team will this year offer little more than last. A shame considering their history.

As far as West Ham and Southampton go, I fear both will be back on the elevator south come the early summer of 2013 - the level of football in the top division proving far too much for what are excruciatingly porous last lines of defence at both clubs.

Southampton did of course score a cracking 85 goals in their last campaign but let in more than half that at 46. West Ham were similarly shady at the back scoring 81, conceding 48!

[JJ-AV]

If I wasn't a Villa supporter I'd be predicting us to struggle this season.

Then again, the majority were saying the same of Newcastle last year.

[not3bad]

Manchester United - not selected just because I am a United fan

Right.

[not3bad]

Aston Villa Premier League preview: How will new boss Lambert fare?

Welcome to Sportsmail's team-by-team guide to the new Barclays Premier League season. Here we look at Aston Villa's vital statistics, their summer signings and sales and analyse their chances.

Manager: Paul Lambert

Position last season: 16th

Nickname: The Villans

Ground: Villa Park

Capacity: 42,640

Key man: Darren Bent

Summer transfers: Click here for all the ins and outs

Chances: Lambert has been charged with reviving Villa's fortunes after a forgettable season under Alex McLeish. Expect the former Norwich boss to make his new side hard to beat once more and move in the right direction.

Villa fans will be glad to finally have a pair of steady hands in Lambert - following on from the reviled McLeish and fellow underachiever Gerard Houllier.

The Scot has become one of the game’s most promising young managers after leading Norwich to successive promotions before comfortably keeping them in the top flight.

Sportsmail verdict: 9th - A solid improvement from last year's flirt with the drop zone

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2187646/Aston-Villa-Premier-League-preview-2012-13.html#ixzz23W1i0ryJ

[dave.woodhall]

Speculation? Yes. Will all prophecies below come to pass? Maybe not.

The thing is - every single forecast about every single game in the history of football is pure speculation. Some get it right more often than others. Some never get it right. I don't fair too badly to be honest.

And so - be they right by next May, or wrong, my own take on the PL's top trio, and those Championship bound.

Top of the tree!

1. Manchester United
2. Arsenal
3. Manchester City

With 2011/12 finishing City / United / Arsenal the obvious difference come the end of the upcoming season is not so much City giving the title back to United - it is just as much about Arsenal's very impressive line up as we go into 2012/13 finally getting it right, gelling and pushing for the title all the way.

Manchester United - not selected just because I am a United fan - will finish top because history really does repeat itself. No team in the English game has ever been able to keep coming back as often or as powerful as do Manchester United, yet, to some extent 2012/13 will be just as much about City throwing away the title as it is about United winning it.

City have a formidable array of talent now playing in blue but absolutely zero experience in retention of a title - perhaps with the exception of Carlos Tevez who is a loose cannon at the best of times - and there are some massive egos now having to make-do with bench starts. Implosion due methinks but still enough on he bench to make 3rd.

Arsenal meanwhile could even pip United at the end, but their weakest link will prove to be the manager Arsene Wenger. He has delivered so little of late, is getting on in years and patience is wearing thin at the Emirates. This could be their year if Lady Luck smiles down, but for now, I will go with a 1 / 2 / 3 of experience trumping new talent trumping player egos getting the better of a still inexperienced manager.

And doomed for relegation!

18. Aston Villa
19. West Ham United
20. Southampton

In recent years the relegation battles have been all about whether or not Bolton, Blackburn and Wolves could escape the drop. Almost from Day 1, these three have existed solely to survive the end of season relegation to the Championship - but now, with all three having gone down - deservedly considering the football they play, the 2012/13 season will be one centered on the struggle for survival of two southern teams, and one from the Midlands.

Villa have of course been flirting with second tier football for a while and having made no significant changes to their team will this year offer little more than last. A shame considering their history.

As far as West Ham and Southampton go, I fear both will be back on the elevator south come the early summer of 2013 - the level of football in the top division proving far too much for what are excruciatingly porous last lines of defence at both clubs.

Southampton did of course score a cracking 85 goals in their last campaign but let in more than half that at 46. West Ham were similarly shady at the back scoring 81, conceding 48!

Where do you start with bollocks like that? "No team in the English game...come back as powerfully.... as Manchester United." "Almost from Day 1 Bolton, Blackburn and Wolves have existed solely to survive." "Villa have been flirting with second tier football for a while" - we've finished in the bottom half once in the past six years.

[DangerousBri]

We got to be realistic & remember where we ended up last year, anything from 9th-13th ill predict we will finish and that will be a good push from that dire season last year. I also think we might have a good chance in the Capital One Cup & with a bit of luck in the draw a good FA Cup run would be great. We need to bring those great days back at Villa Park & its not going to happen over night but with Paul Lambert in charge it can happen.

[mike]

Similar squad but a better manager so a modest improvement I think. Maybe 12th - 14th.

[peter w]

from football 365:

Writing about Aston Villa in pre-season inevitably throws up memories of 2010 and speculating in this space over how Martin O'Neill was going to fare, only for him to part company with the club before a ball was kicked. The loss of the Northern Irishman, now at Sunderland, is a blow from which the club have not recovered, compounded by the poor appointments that followed.

Nice as it would have been for Gerard Houllier's twilight years to have included a successful return to club management, surprise at the medical problems that forced him from the job was not widespread. If there was sadness over the circumstances of the Frenchman's departure from those capable of distinguishing football from real life, it was disbelief that dominated when Alex McLeish was named his permanent successor with the stench of Birmingham's relegation still overpowering the fumes from the Gravelly Hill Interchange.

It is the fact that football is so hard to predict that makes it compelling (and I will have some humble pie to eat thanks to Nick Miller later in the week), but the closest thing to a racing certainty in football was that the Scot would struggle to win over the support and would be under added pressure with each adverse result. He had the backing of Sir Alex Ferguson but the support of the most biased man in football counts for nothing in real life.

Goodbye or farewell are too warm in their sentiments for Villa fans; good riddance is at least in the right area though to come close to the mark I would have to use unpublishable language. Disposing of McLeish may have been cathartic but it did not solve the Villa conundrum, and nor has the arrival of Paul Lambert.

They are the biggest club in the country's second biggest city and once upon a time they were European champions. Their top-flight roots go back to the Football League's inaugural season when they were the most southerly club and they were soon one of the most successful. But they have never recaptured the spirit of those early decades except in the years culminating in the 1982 European Cup win. Since the Premier League started they have suffered too many eclipses and even with Randy Lerner's takeover they remain in the shadow of the north-west and south-east.

Under McLeish they could not even manage to be the region's leading team, finishing nine points and six places below West Brom. Part of that was down to the former Birmingham manager's motivational skills, and the loss of Darren Bent to injury and Stilian Petrov to serious illness added to their troubles (and, in the case of the Bulgarian's leukaemia, put them in perspective).

Spending has been sensible rather than lavish, with the £3.2m paid to Feyenoord for the centre-back Ron Vlaar the high point, with another defender, Matthew Lowton from Sheffield United, just behind. Though Brett Holman, the Australia winger, could be a good Bosman acquisition, the most exciting sights for the Holte End could be the youth products headed by Barry Bannan and the still-only-22 Marc Albrighton. But it seems unlikely that Lambert will be able to get too many Second City pulses racing with this squad and if Shay Given repeats the form he showed at Euro 2012 then the Holte will howl.

Mid-table is densely packed and, though Villa finished two below the 40-point mark, 50 or so and a top-ten finish are possible. It is not clear, though, that that is the level of success Lerner was seeking when he became involved.

The good news for Lambert is that a gentle start to the season offers an opportunity to bed in himself and his new charges, with trips to West Ham and Southampton before the end of September and visits by Everton, Swansea and West Brom. But in the long run this may just be a season where relief at the departure of McLeish remains the overriding emotion and in the end a manager needs to do more than simply not be someone else.

[mike]

from football 365:

Writing about Aston Villa in pre-season inevitably throws up memories of 2010 and speculating in this space over how Martin O'Neill was going to fare, only for him to part company with the club before a ball was kicked. The loss of the Northern Irishman, now at Sunderland, is a blow from which the club have not recovered, compounded by the poor appointments that followed.

Nice as it would have been for Gerard Houllier's twilight years to have included a successful return to club management, surprise at the medical problems that forced him from the job was not widespread. If there was sadness over the circumstances of the Frenchman's departure from those capable of distinguishing football from real life, it was disbelief that dominated when Alex McLeish was named his permanent successor with the stench of Birmingham's relegation still overpowering the fumes from the Gravelly Hill Interchange.

It is the fact that football is so hard to predict that makes it compelling (and I will have some humble pie to eat thanks to Nick Miller later in the week), but the closest thing to a racing certainty in football was that the Scot would struggle to win over the support and would be under added pressure with each adverse result. He had the backing of Sir Alex Ferguson but the support of the most biased man in football counts for nothing in real life.

Goodbye or farewell are too warm in their sentiments for Villa fans; good riddance is at least in the right area though to come close to the mark I would have to use unpublishable language. Disposing of McLeish may have been cathartic but it did not solve the Villa conundrum, and nor has the arrival of Paul Lambert.

They are the biggest club in the country's second biggest city and once upon a time they were European champions. Their top-flight roots go back to the Football League's inaugural season when they were the most southerly club and they were soon one of the most successful. But they have never recaptured the spirit of those early decades except in the years culminating in the 1982 European Cup win. Since the Premier League started they have suffered too many eclipses and even with Randy Lerner's takeover they remain in the shadow of the north-west and south-east.

Under McLeish they could not even manage to be the region's leading team, finishing nine points and six places below West Brom. Part of that was down to the former Birmingham manager's motivational skills, and the loss of Darren Bent to injury and Stilian Petrov to serious illness added to their troubles (and, in the case of the Bulgarian's leukaemia, put them in perspective).

Spending has been sensible rather than lavish, with the £3.2m paid to Feyenoord for the centre-back Ron Vlaar the high point, with another defender, Matthew Lowton from Sheffield United, just behind. Though Brett Holman, the Australia winger, could be a good Bosman acquisition, the most exciting sights for the Holte End could be the youth products headed by Barry Bannan and the still-only-22 Marc Albrighton. But it seems unlikely that Lambert will be able to get too many Second City pulses racing with this squad and if Shay Given repeats the form he showed at Euro 2012 then the Holte will howl.

Mid-table is densely packed and, though Villa finished two below the 40-point mark, 50 or so and a top-ten finish are possible. It is not clear, though, that that is the level of success Lerner was seeking when he became involved.

The good news for Lambert is that a gentle start to the season offers an opportunity to bed in himself and his new charges, with trips to West Ham and Southampton before the end of September and visits by Everton, Swansea and West Brom. But in the long run this may just be a season where relief at the departure of McLeish remains the overriding emotion and in the end a manager needs to do more than simply not be someone else.

Well that's depressed me, not least because I agree with it.

[GJH]

Mid table finish in the league.
Quarter final of the league cup
5th round FA cup

Anything is better than last season!