Relegation Watch

[Risso]

The odds also depend on what the bookies take in bets.  If lots of people decided on Monday morning to go and bet big amounts on Villa going down, you'd see the odds go down sharpish.  I don't think we will go down, but think that the possibility is more than 10-1.

[ktvillan]

I said last week I thought it would all rest on the Bolton game, and I think that remains the case.  If we lose on Tuesday I fear the worst.  A draw might just be enough for us to see off Blackburn and to fend off Bolton, if not the other two. I'm bricking it.

[old man villa fan]

Just back from holiday after just over 3 weeks away from this mess.

When I left we were 15th, 8 points above the bottom three.  Today we are still 15th but only 5 points above the bottom three.  However, most of the teamd have played 5 matches, so time is running out on the teams trying to get above us so that we are relegated.

On current form since I went away, QPR and Wigan have picked up 9 points from 5 games (with some staggering results), Bolton have picked up 4 points from 4 games, Blackburn and Villa have picked up 3 points from 5 games, with Wolves (surely down today) 1 point from 4 games.

I still do not see us being relegated but as I said when we were 13 points above the bottom three, it will be a lot closer than that.  I expect us to finish 2 or 3 points above the bottom three in 16th position.

The reason for our position I believe rests firmly on the shoulders of the manager.  Negative tactics have meant far too many draws.  Compounding this by playing what looks like attacking formations and asking them then to play tactics that do not suit their game.  Either he has not got a clue or was just trying to appease the fans to deflect some of the criticism.  Square pegs in square holes please.  Being more positive, I believe, would have seen us win more games and lose a few more but with a net gain in points.  There is not a great deal between the teams 9th/10th and teams at the bottom, only the attitudes of the managers towards tactics.  We have the players to be around 8th or 9th.

[damon loves JT]

Yes, yes, but did you go anywhere nice?

[maidstonevillain]

I said last week I thought it would all rest on the Bolton game, and I think that remains the case.  If we lose on Tuesday I fear the worst.  A draw might just be enough for us to see off Blackburn and to fend off Bolton, if not the other two. I'm bricking it.

Agree entirely. And the odds of us losing to Bolton are definately a lot lot lower than 14:1. As Risso says the odds are not just based on the actual probability, but how many bets are placed.

[old man villa fan]

Yes, yes, but did you go anywhere nice?

Yes I did and the weather was great.  Was also generally able to stay away from the internet and watching the PL on TV.  Oh yes, family holiday in Thailand.

[Gregorys Boy]

Going into yesterday I felt that we needed three more points to keep us up.  The big result from our point of view was Wigan losing at Fulham which meant our point was a better one than other wise it would have been.  Althrough I now expect Wigan themselves to survie, the fact they didn't drag us closer to the trap door yesterday may prove key.

We should be able to get the required couple of points from the last four games even if we don't actually win any of them.

I say will beat Bolton, lose to West Brom and Spurs (althrough its a great time to be playing them) and draw at Norwich.

[Des Little]

We'll draw on Tuesday, lose at the Albion and again at home to Spurs.  A draw at Norwich will see us safe, just. 

[avfcpg]

Well I have more faith in Man City and Chelsea than some do. I can't see anything other than them both getting a good twatting when they play them. Stoke and Spurs are hardly gimme's either...

Feck it, win Tuesday and it's all done anyway...

 

[Tokyo Sexwhale]

The only other team that really matters (and that we can do anything about) is Bolton.  Wigan and QPR may both go past us, but it doesn't matter as long as Blackburn and Bolton don't. 

If we don't get another point, Blackburn need to win 2 out of their remaining 3 games - Spurs (a), Wigan (h), Chelsea (a).  That will be tough for them to do.  If we get just 1 point, Blackburn would need 2 wins and a draw.

Bolton have a game in hand, could feasibly beat us and have a much easier run-in.  They need 2 wins a draw to overtake us. , if we didn't gain another point.

[Dave Cooper please]

How likely is it that the bookies, who's very livelihood depends on having the odds right, have the odds wrong?

Have you ever made a mistake at work?  Doing the thing your very livelihood depends on.

Why don't you pop over to Oddschecker and explain to me why Bet365 will give you 14-1 against us dropping whilst William Hill will only give 9-1.  Setting odds is not an exact science and I believe that at the moment they are pricing on the basis of current league position without enough consideration of form.

Good, well stick your bloody house on it then. You seem so sure we're doomed you might as well make a fortune out of it.
Go on.

[rob_bridge]

Lose on Tuesday and the confidence (already incredibly fragile) will disappear completely and it will be 1987.
Win and we are ok.
Draw and more agony for a couple of weeks - probably scrape it to safety on GD.

[pauliewalnuts]

The odds also depend on what the bookies take in bets.  If lots of people decided on Monday morning to go and bet big amounts on Villa going down, you'd see the odds go down sharpish.  I don't think we will go down, but think that the possibility is more than 10-1.

The odds on something like this pretty much entirely depend on what the bookies take on bets.

A market like this, which is relatively small, the prices will just follow the money and minimise the risk to the bookies. People assume the prices are tweaked by eagle eyed bookies looking at the whole picture and reflecting what they think will happen, but this isn't the case at all.  This is all about risk management software, not traders these days, adjusting prices to limit their exposure.

[Ad@m]

How likely is it that the bookies, who's very livelihood depends on having the odds right, have the odds wrong?

Have you ever made a mistake at work?  Doing the thing your very livelihood depends on.

Why don't you pop over to Oddschecker and explain to me why Bet365 will give you 14-1 against us dropping whilst William Hill will only give 9-1.  Setting odds is not an exact science and I believe that at the moment they are pricing on the basis of current league position without enough consideration of form.

Good, well stick your bloody house on it then. You seem so sure we're doomed you might as well make a fortune out of it.
Go on.

Why don't you read my posts before you start spouting shite?

Don't get me wrong, I still think we'll stay up but I think it's going to be so bum-clenchingly close it doesn't bear thinking about.  I wish I could be as utterly confident about staying up at a canter as some of the posters on here.

[Simba]

The divide between safety and the drop is a very fine line.

Imagine if Weiman hadn't scrambled the 93rd  minute Fulham goal and if the Sunderland 'goal' had been allowed. Then see where we are. In theory other teams have too much to do to catch us but that was said about SHA at this stage last year.

Tomorrow is bloody critical.