Relegation Watch

[KevinGage]

I'll stick my neck out and say we'll win all three home games.

Fcuk it, we're no great shakes.  But we're not as bad as recent form suggests either.

We will - touch wood- have a number of senior players returning from injury over the next few weeks.

If we can beat Martin O'Neill's Slumberland that might give us some momentum, Bolton are really, really poor and Tottingham are having their worst spell of the season.  An entertaining 2-2 draw away to Norwich final game sees us stay up with ease - on 45 points  (I factored in a defeat to the Olbiyun - we aren't good enough to finish the season unbeaten).

[Rip Van We Go Again]

I'm going

SUNDERLAND - DRAW
BOLTON - WIN
ALBION - LOSE
SPURS - LOSE
NORWICH - DRAW

5 points, which should see us safe.

[KevinGage]

I reckon 2 points will do it Fletch.

Get this total arse of a season out of the way and then get that total arse McPish out.

[maidstonevillain]

Assuming Villa get no points at all from our remaining 5 games, three of the following would have to happen for us to get relegated.

Wigan get 2 draws from 4 games.  Very likely.

QPR get at least 1 win and 2 draws from 4 games.  Not impossible, but they have a tough run-in

Bolton get at least 2 wins and a draw from 6 games.  They have an easier run-in, and one of those wins would have been against us.

Blackburn get at least 2 wins and 2 draws from 4 games.  Highly unlikely.

Wolves have to win all 4 remaining games AND make up a 26 goal difference on us.  Virtually impossible.

If we win just one game (or get 3 draws), I'd say we'd stay up.

More pragmatically. Assume Wigan will pass us, and Blackburn and Wolves are going down. That means wee have to stay ahead of QPR or Bolton to stay up.  It is quite conceivable we could, say, draw against Sunderland, and lose against Bolton (handing Bolton, who already have a game in hand, one of their wins. It then becomes very tight, and we could be relying on QPR to have a bad run. That is what really worries me.

[Concrete John]

Assuming Villa get no points at all from our remaining 5 games, three of the following would have to happen for us to get relegated.

Wigan get 2 draws from 4 games.  Very likely.

QPR get at least 1 win and 2 draws from 4 games.  Not impossible, but they have a tough run-in

Bolton get at least 2 wins and a draw from 6 games.  They have an easier run-in, and one of those wins would have been against us.

Blackburn get at least 2 wins and 2 draws from 4 games.  Highly unlikely.

Wolves have to win all 4 remaining games AND make up a 26 goal difference on us.  Virtually impossible.

If we win just one game (or get 3 draws), I'd say we'd stay up.

More pragmatically. Assume Wigan will pass us, and Blackburn and Wolves are going down. That means wee have to stay ahead of QPR or Bolton to stay up.  It is quite conceivable we could, say, draw against Sunderland, and lose against Bolton (handing Bolton, who already have a game in hand, one of their wins. It then becomes very tight, and we could be relying on QPR to have a bad run. That is what really worries me.

QPR's run in is very tough.

But I agree - a loss against Bolton will put a different complexion on things.  I think we'll beat them myself.

[villa for life]

As an aside to, "Have we got the best youngsters in the league?" thread, I was wondering whether we've actually got a better team than our relegation rivals. The team we have put out in the last few weeks, and the one we will have to put out for the remainder of the season looks so young and so inexperienced.

Do we in fact even have a better side on paper than Bolton, QPR, Blackburn or Wigan??? We lost Young and Downing in the summer, and with the injury to Bent and Petrov's illness, do we have a first team that is good enough to stay up?
The media might seem surprised we are where we are, but have a look at the team sheets of late and compare them with our rivals. ..

[ozzjim]

Thought this could go in this thread VFL. It is about relegation, and discussing our chances basically, so is now in here.

[Chipsticks]

As an aside to, "Have we got the best youngsters in the league?" thread, I was wondering whether we've actually got a better team than our relegation rivals. The team we have put out in the last few weeks, and the one we will have to put out for the remainder of the season looks so young and so inexperienced.

Do we in fact even have a better side on paper than Bolton, QPR, Blackburn or Wigan??? We lost Young and Downing in the summer, and with the injury to Bent and Petrov's illness, do we have a first team that is good enough to stay up?
The media might seem surprised we are where we are, but have a look at the team sheets of late and compare them with our rivals. ..

We have a better squad than those you've listed. Perhaps not as deep but definitely better.

[ozzjim]

Squad yes, but current first 11 I think he has a point.

[Eigentor]

Extrapolating from what has happened so far this season, I'll say we'll get 40 points.

Home against truly shit teams, like Blackburn and Wigan, we win. So we'll beat Bolton.

Against average teams we scrape a draw. So we'll draw against Norwich and Spurs (which is an average team on recent form).

If a possible outcome can piss of the fans, it'll happen. So we'll lose against MON's Sunderland and rivals WBA.

[danlanza]

Dont think we will go down but it will be tight.I hope that we dont loose against Sunderland or Albion but its not looking good.Lets wait and see what happens on Saturday,we may be a slight bit more positive.

[James]

Extrapolating from what has happened so far this season, I'll say we'll get 40 points.

Home against truly shit teams, like Blackburn and Wigan, we win. So we'll beat Bolton.

Against average teams we scrape a draw. So we'll draw against Norwich and Spurs (which is an average team on recent form).

If a possible outcome can piss of the fans, it'll happen. So we'll lose against MON's Sunderland and rivals WBA.

They've already beaten us once at VP this season though (when we had a fully fit squad to hand), so hard to buy your logic on that one!

[adrenachrome]

Extrapolating from what has happened so far this season, I'll say we'll get 40 points.

Home against truly shit teams, like Blackburn and Wigan, we win. So we'll beat Bolton.

Against average teams we scrape a draw. So we'll draw against Norwich and Spurs (which is an average team on recent form).

If a possible outcome can piss of the fans, it'll happen. So we'll lose against MON's Sunderland and rivals WBA.

They've already beaten us once at VP this season though (when we had a fully fit squad to hand), so hard to buy your logic on that one!

True. And, if I remember correctly,  Coyle rested 9 players and we didn't have a shot on target until the 87th minute.

[Steve67]

I can't see where the goals are going to come from.  I hope I'm wrong but we're hardly free flowing at the best of times, with Darren Bent or not.  Beat either Sunderland or Bolton and we are safe.  Trouble is, I really can't see it.  Two draws at best, which might also prove to be enough.  I can see Villa dropping to 16th or 17th but being safe.

[FrankyH]

I wonder if they sell them half and half scarves in championship.

I think after the West Brom game,  if we are still in danger , we will go down.