Randy Lerner "State of Aston Villa" Statement

[Risso]

Wasn't the 5 year plan just another guff that someone dropped though? They never recognised it whenever anyone brought it up as far as I can recall.

Perhaps it was but the challenging for CL was definitely on their agenda and that appears to have gone up in smoke.

I doubt it was ever written down, but Fitzgerald and then Krulak alluded to it a few times.  Whether it existed either as a concrete plan or just a vague hope, the truth is that it's gone either way, to be replaced by nothing more aspirational than improving the wage situation.

No, replaced by being in the top 20 by revenue in Europe, which as VZ has told us goes hand in hand with being successful on the pitch.

No it doesn't.  The Premier League clubs have a €billion head start over the next richest league, Serie A, purely from the size of the Sky deal.  We've finished behind Everton for most of the last few years, yet they're always behind us in terms of income.  We should be concentrating on being successful, then the income will largely take care of itself, not the other way round.

[Iago]

We have the potential to be a massive club, but unfortunately there always seems to be a barrier we cannot pass through.

As for the upcoming season, I just hope Randy's prudence does not leave us in trouble.

[Chris Smith]

Wasn't the 5 year plan just another guff that someone dropped though? They never recognised it whenever anyone brought it up as far as I can recall.

Perhaps it was but the challenging for CL was definitely on their agenda and that appears to have gone up in smoke.

I doubt it was ever written down, but Fitzgerald and then Krulak alluded to it a few times.  Whether it existed either as a concrete plan or just a vague hope, the truth is that it's gone either way, to be replaced by nothing more aspirational than improving the wage situation.

No, replaced by being in the top 20 by revenue in Europe, which as VZ has told us goes hand in hand with being successful on the pitch.

No it doesn't.  The Premier League clubs have a €billion head start over the next richest league, Serie A, purely from the size of the Sky deal.  We've finished behind Everton for most of the last few years, yet they're always behind us in terms of income.  We should be concentrating on being successful, then the income will largely take care of itself, not the other way round.

So how do you suggest we fund "being successful"?

[barrysleftfoot]

   Sorry Risso, but can you just explain to me, a non-accountant, how his wealth has gone down by so much.

   2.5billion down to 400million seems a dramatic drop.

[Mister E]

No it doesn't.  The Premier League clubs have a €billion head start over the next richest league, Serie A, purely from the size of the Sky deal.  We've finished behind Everton for most of the last few years, yet they're always behind us in terms of income.  We should be concentrating on being successful, then the income will largely take care of itself, not the other way round.

You're right in principle but it's what we've been trying to do since the money-pit kicked off in 1991; we've not yet found the secret of: investment - footballing success - ££££ - more footballing success.
It has to be a combination of youth-academy success and judicious signings.
So nothing simple, then.

[Risso]

   Sorry Risso, but can you just explain to me, a non-accountant, how his wealth has gone down by so much.

   2.5billion down to 400million seems a dramatic drop.

It's paper riches.  Using a very simple example, if you have 1,000,000 shares in a company that are worth £1 each at 31 December, then you are effectively worth £1m at that date.  If you sold the shares you'd obviously have a million quid cash.  If 6 months later the price of those shares drops to 10p, then you're only worth £100K, and if you sold those shares that's how much cash you'd have.  Most million/billionaires don't have that much cash just sat in bank accounts, it'll mostly be tied up in various investments and funds, and so as prices go up and down, so does the value of their investments.  It looks like Lerner had a lot of his money in banking shares, which obviously took a battering during the credit crisis.

[Dante Lavelli]

Am I right in thinking that he could have sold his shares before their price crashed?
Or do we know that there were terms and conditions which prevented him selling his shares.

I'd guess that he would have diversified his investments (in a football club maybe) rather than leaving it all in The American Bank so whilst it's probably safe to say his wealth is less than before it's probably not the worse case scenario of "only" being £400m.

Risso - you know about this sort if stuff. Is this correct or am I being overly optimistic?

[GJH]

Frustrating that if we would have signed Bent 12 months earlier we would have made the champions league, no doubt about it.

The only way for success in this league is to spend big. We gave it a go under O'neil and were only a couple of defeats away from the 4th place. The chance has gone, if we are to do it again we may have to build a team around our young stars Delboy, Albrighton, Clark etc but come May we may struggle to keep them as the "Big" sides come calling.

What does it matter any way? We struggle all season to make it into europe and then play weakened sides in the competition.

All we are now is an average side who can hope for a good cup run! Top half finish at best. Up the Villa!

[Mister E]

   Sorry Risso, but can you just explain to me, a non-accountant, how his wealth has gone down by so much.

   2.5billion down to 400million seems a dramatic drop.

It's paper riches.  Using a very simple example, if you have 1,000,000 shares in a company that are worth £1 each at 31 December, then you are effectively worth £1m at that date.  If you sold the shares you'd obviously have a million quid cash.  If 6 months later the price of those shares drops to 10p, then you're only worth £100K, and if you sold those shares that's how much cash you'd have.  Most million/billionaires don't have that much cash just sat in bank accounts, it'll mostly be tied up in various investments and funds, and so as prices go up and down, so does the value of their investments.  It looks like Lerner had a lot of his money in banking shares, which obviously took a battering during the credit crisis.

Equally, though, being in banking he may well see his investment rise again to similar historical levels ... although it may take a while.

[pauliewalnuts]

I understand entirely if he wants to cut his investment and recoup some of his money.

My issue is that he's doing it in far, far too draconian a manner.

When I first heard that we were linked with AM as manager, I thought "nah, that'll never happen" - not because he was their manager, but because it smacked of zero ambition. It happened. When we sold Young, I was utterly convinced there was no way we'd sell Downing in the same summer. It happened.

It really has been a rude awakening. Do we really need to move someone on to fund bringing Hitzlsperger in on loan?

I understand the thinking of those who reckon we're in pretty good shape, but that to me looks like it is largely influenced by the fact that this is where we are, so we're going to have to like it.

At the end of last season, had someone told us "you're going to appoint McLeish, you're going to sell Young and Downing for almost 40m and spend only 13 of it, 3.5 of which is to replace Friedel who has gone, and you're going to release a load of other players, including NRC, the only DM we have, who is not going to be replaced", and there will be no further additions - what would have been the reaction?

I reckon it'd be utter disbelief, followed by consensus that we'd not be nearly strong enough.

I really can not believe it has come to this. Crossing our fingers for Dunne and Collins to not be like they were last season, crossing our fingers that the kids come good, crossing our fingers we don't get a run of injuries, hoping that the shit-before-he-was-dropped Warnock is reliable, and putting hope in the clearly hatstand Stephen Ireland.

It's a very, very risky strategy indeed.

[Mister E]

Best wishes to you, Paulie, and everyone else for this season! Let's hope we can enjoy it.

[Marlon From Bearwood]

I understand entirely if he wants to cut his investment and recoup some of his money.

My issue is that he's doing it in far, far too draconian a manner.

When I first heard that we were linked with AM as manager, I thought "nah, that'll never happen" - not because he was their manager, but because it smacked of zero ambition. It happened. When we sold Young, I was utterly convinced there was no way we'd sell Downing in the same summer. It happened.

It really has been a rude awakening. Do we really need to move someone on to fund bringing Hitzlsperger in on loan?

I understand the thinking of those who reckon we're in pretty good shape, but that to me looks like it is largely influenced by the fact that this is where we are, so we're going to have to like it.

At the end of last season, had someone told us "you're going to appoint McLeish, you're going to sell Young and Downing for almost 40m and spend only 13 of it, 3.5 of which is to replace Friedel who has gone, and you're going to release a load of other players, including NRC, the only DM we have, who is not going to be replaced", and there will be no further additions - what would have been the reaction?

I reckon it'd be utter disbelief, followed by consensus that we'd not be nearly strong enough.

I really can not believe it has come to this. Crossing our fingers for Dunne and Collins to not be like they were last season, crossing our fingers that the kids come good, crossing our fingers we don't get a run of injuries, hoping that the shit-before-he-was-dropped Warnock is reliable, and putting hope in the clearly hatstand Stephen Ireland.

It's a very, very risky strategy indeed.

Great post

[Clampy]

Do we really need to move someone on to fund bringing Hitzlsperger in on loan?

This is what worries me, it dose'nt seem to add up. Chris said earlier that maybe the wage level we're at now suits us and it's what we can work with. It may well be workable on a financial scale but on the field it's a hell of a risk and that's where it matters.

I don't think any of us are expecting the club to splash out silly money on a 30 year old Scott Parker, but when we're at a stage where after letting 8 players go, we have to let yet another go to finance a free transfer, then the finances must be in a bit of a state.

Let's not forget, we're not just down on numbers, we've lost very very good players. I  just hope we don't get an injury list like we did last season.

[ozzjim]

6 weeks ago I was convinced that given 4-5 signings McLeish could do a good job with it and the board had never let us down previously and would give him the right support to do so, even if it meant less spend next summer as we needed the player in certain positions (replacing the talismanic Ashley Young for one). I was still optimistic. Now, I am fast falling into the same mindset as Paulie. Worried. And I hope IF we start poorly, then the cash is found for 2-3 players even on loan.

[ozzjim]

Clampy, an injury list like last season and we are doomed. The experience of Young and Downing carried us through that period.