Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: MONCABA on February 01, 2013, 01:38:34 PM
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I have been having a look at our remaining games.
Trying to be objective and not letting my heart rule my head, I have come up with the following possible results:
Everton - draw
West Ham - Villa win
Arsenal - Villa loss
Man City - Villa loss
Reading - Villa win
QPR - Villa win
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - draw
Norwich - Villa loss
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa loss
This would leave us finishing our league campaign on 35 points. :'(
Is that enough?
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f**K Wigan away could be a decider ;(
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I can see us losing to Liverpoo but I think Norwich could be the one where we might win.
very suprised If we draw at Toffees
we need 6 wins ;(
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No - i want at least 38 points and even then that may not be enough- there will some shock results along the way by the end of this month i fear we could be 6 or 7 points adrift .
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I do think 35 will be enough this year, but I'm not sure we'll get it!!
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With Reading and QPR finding form as well as Soton, I don't think that will be enough. 38 points minimum for me (where's McLeish when you need him?).
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f**K Wigan away could be a decider ;(
I would take having to win on last day to stay up, can't see us being anywhere near staying up.
normally teams start getting unlikely wins so, no, 35 not enough for anybody
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Just doing the BBC predictor. You know what might just save us? A lot of the teams around us have to play each other whereas we have a good few games against 'safe' mid-table clubs.
That's the one crumb of comfort. If we can beat West Ham we are still in with a chance. If the teams around us either draw each other in those games or one of them starts to take poundings in those six pointers in February and March we could end up surviving by default again.
I think Reading will be the team to get cut adrift and we'll be in the mix with a few others until near the end of the season. West Ham could end up dropping like a stone.
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We're unlikely to get anywhere near 35 points.
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f**K Wigan away could be a decider ;(
I would take having to win on last day to stay up, can't see us being anywhere near staying up.
normally teams start getting unlikely wins so, no, 35 not enough for anybody
but we clearly stand no chance of getting one of those, that appears to be the general understanding, every club in the bottom half is going to go on a run of wins that will see them fly up the table but we're going to lose every game.
For what it's worth if we have 35 points going away to Wigan I believe our destiny will be in our own hands.
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I think it could be enough this year but I'm doubtful we can get them. I'm just hoping we can win 2 or 3 and get a load of draws.
I think the away games are our best chance. We are truly shite at home.
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Just did the predictor and had us staying up on 36 points after drawing with Wigan on the last day of the season. I had QPR finishing ahead of us on 37. I think I had too many mid-table teams drawing with each other though because Fulham ended up dropping down into the mix and staying up on 37....
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I wouldnt fancy us going to wigan on the last day needing anything .
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I wouldnt fancy us going to wigan on the last day needing anything .
I'd take it now though.
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Don't think 35 will be quite enough. I fancy there'll be enough form from certain teams that the 18th spot will be 37-38 going down.
I also see us struggling to get close to 35. Even 30 points looks a long, long way off.
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Just done the predictor, 41 points. Easy.
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I did the predictor up until the last game and had us on 35 going into the Wigan game. Reading were relegated and Wigan as good as. I also had us battling it out with Norwich and Fulham, with QPR and Southampton moving up the table.
We have 2 crucial double headers where we can and must get wins. The first being Reading away, Qpr home, then a few weeks later Sunderland at home, Norwich away. If we can get 12 points there, a few more draws, even a sock win, we would have it in our own hands going into the Wigan game.
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I did the predictor up until the last game and had us on 35 going into the Wigan game. Reading were relegated and Wigan as good as. I also had us battling it out with Norwich and Fulham, with QPR and Southampton moving up the table.
We have 2 crucial double headers where we can and must get wins. The first being Reading away, Qpr home, then a few weeks later Sunderland at home, Norwich away. If we can get 12 points there, a few more draws, even a sock win, we would have it in our own hands going into the Wigan game.
And you think we will start to win why?
We have hardly won any so far, but you expect us to start?
I hope I'm wrong but I can barely see us winning another game
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I can't see us suddenly finding the gumption or leadership to turn our form around. I think too if we were in the Championship right now in a similar position we wouldn't be able to pull it round. I don't think there's a club in the top two division right now who we could comfortably go and stamp our authority over.
We're awful and it's embarrassing and painful to watch.
I look at the rest of the fixtures and I can't see where the next win is coming from. I sound defeatist but with how dire we've looked, it can't find much hope. Football has a funny way of turning itself on it's head at times and maybe we'll suddenly ride a long streak of luck or something might click, but it's very unlikely.
Since the Chelsea game the way we've played consistently has been as bad a run as I've ever seen and I think (hope) will see again as a Villa fan in my life time. It's been repugnant. The lack of organisation, leadership, quality is frightening. Benteke offers some moments of brilliance but we pinning our hopes squarely on a young man's shoulders and we need more.
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By my set of predictions, I have us finishing 19th on 33 points. 35 would be enough to stay up, but only just. Got it finishing as so:
14 Wigan 36
15 Fulham 35
16 West Ham 35
17 So'ton 34
18 QPR 33
19 Villa 33
20 Reading 29
Edit: That's with us taking a point at Wigan on the last day. A win would see us stay up (Wigan should already be safe then too).
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I wouldnt fancy us going to wigan on the last day needing anything .
I'd take it now though.
I would have taken it two weeks ago.
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35 points? We will be lucky to get 25 !
Seriously unless there is a massive change where is the next point even going to come from? yes its negative but at the moment is there any other way to be?
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The problem with these predictors is that there are always surprise results. Obviously perception is also a big factor. Whoever's doing ok, you'll assume it will stay that way until the end of the season and likewise, if you're doing poorly you equally expect it to continue until the end of the season. Who could have seen Wigan picking up the wins they did at the end of last season?
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I did the predictor up until the last game and had us on 35 going into the Wigan game. Reading were relegated and Wigan as good as. I also had us battling it out with Norwich and Fulham, with QPR and Southampton moving up the table.
We have 2 crucial double headers where we can and must get wins. The first being Reading away, Qpr home, then a few weeks later Sunderland at home, Norwich away. If we can get 12 points there, a few more draws, even a sock win, we would have it in our own hands going into the Wigan game.
And you think we will start to win why?
We have hardly won any so far, but you expect us to start?
I hope I'm wrong but I can barely see us winning another game
We have shown signs of being able to win games recently e.g. first half of West Brom, a bit of fight in the 2nd half against Newcastle.
It's not been enough and we have to improve, but they are games we are capable of winning. In fact there are enough games against opposition we should be able to beat, that points in the games v Everton, Man Utd, Man City etc. would be bonus points.
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Where have we shown signs of being able to win? We're leaking at least 2 goals a game,even against lower league opposition, and how often have we looked like scoring 3 or more? Our big opportunity to swing things the other way was the transfer window and I can't really see that anything Lambert has done in that respect is going to help us in either of those aspects. For that reason, while I think 35 may well be enough to stay up, I honestly can't see us getting that many points.
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35 points? We will be lucky to get 25 !
Seriously unless there is a massive change where is the next point even going to come from? yes its negative but at the moment is there any other way to be?
How about positive?
Normally come February we have nothing to play for but mid-table place shuffling, or a half-hearted hope of Europe. And let's be honest we moan like hell even then, and meaningless games hardly get the adrenalin flowing.
Like the rest of you I don't want to see us where we are, but the only way now is to fight the fight head on in the one way we can, by getting behind the team. Forget what's gone on up to now, three months is a hell of a long time in football and we can't give up in February.
Back in the day, coming out of away grounds where we knew we'd come under attack there used to be a chant go up "All the Villa, stick together!"
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I do think 35 will be enough this year, but I'm not sure we'll get it!!
Same.
As an aside, Wigan will be a horrible day as I really can't see nothing riding on that game. We'll take 5k up there, Wigan fans like running onto the pitch after their final game so if we go down I worry things will turn quite ugly.
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38 points needed IMO . Be great to start with a point or 3 tomorrow .
Come on villa !
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38 points needed IMO . Be great to start with a point or 3 tomorrow .
Come on villa !
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The killer would be going down on goal difference which would sum up the season as Chelsea started all this turmoil.
I certainly wasn't thinking of relegation in the aftermath of Liverpool away.
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The killer would be going down on goal difference which would sum up the season as Chelsea started all this turmoil.
I certainly wasn't thinking of relegation in the aftermath of Liverpool away.
Yep, Chelsea followed by Spurs and Wigan has wrecked us beyond repair
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Didn't realise we had Chelsea in the last but one game. Let's hope that if we're already down then we can fuck their season up in a similar manner that they did ours, even if it just means breaking a few legs here and there.
Are they still in any of the cups?
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35 points, so 15 points from 14 games for us. Hmmmm. Think it will be around there myself. You look at Norwich and west ham on 27 points who i think are safe - they'd need 8 points from 14 games to get there - think they'll easily do that.
Newcastle who IMO are the lowest club in danger would need 11 points in 14 games so 3 wins and 2 draws. Gettable again. whatever way you look at it we've got to stop giving wins to our relegation rivals. Wigan, QPR and Reading we need to beat, and something from Sunderland, Fulham and west ham at home would be nice
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I'll be surprised if we reach 30.
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What was the lowest points to have survived?
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What was the lowest points to have survived?
34. West Ham once went down with 42, according to the internet.
I don't think mathematics will save us if we don't work out how to defend.
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What was the lowest points to have survived?
34. West Ham once went down with 42, according to the internet.
I don't think mathematics will save us if we don't work out how to defend.
True Damon, but if they could play 90 minutes each match the way they played the second half against Newcastle they could just score more goals than they concede, occasionally anyway - how about six games? I always think attack is the best form of defence so as we haven't got a defence that has to be the way and we do have enough strikers if they are used properly. Unfortunately despite that bit of optimism I do think Lambert is picking teams to lose!
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The pre-Chelsea form was good enough to keep us up. Just about.
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I hate to say it, but i dont think we`ll even get that.
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What was the lowest points to have survived?
34. West Ham once went down with 42, according to the internet.
I don't think mathematics will save us if we don't work out how to defend.
In 09/10 I'm pretty sure Burnley and Hull both went down on 31 points so 32 points were enough that year.
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I have been having a look at our remaining games.
Trying to be objective and not letting my heart rule my head, I have come up with the following possible results:
Everton - draw
West Ham - Villa win
Arsenal - Villa loss
Man City - Villa loss
Reading - Villa win
QPR - Villa win
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - draw
Norwich - Villa loss
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa loss
This would leave us finishing our league campaign on 35 points. :'(
Is that enough?
Good start !
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West Ham is the final one for me.
We have to beat them or I think it's curtains particularly with this form Reading are in.
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I don't think mathematics will save us if we don't work out how to defend.
I think you will find that numbers will matter in the end however we defend.
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West Ham is the final one for me.
We have to beat them or I think it's curtains particularly with this form Reading are in.
Yet another must win game. I agree, final chance.
The frustrating thing for me is that we have let so many away points go by letting the lead go. And in the last 2 home games I think we were very close to a point each time. That's 8 points we could have got but didn't. To be honest I think this is how it will continue but a flicker of hope remains.
35 points definitely not enough.
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the pressures on now against the irons and we know how badly this team deals with pressure
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West Ham are pretty limited and one paced but when you're consistantly crap at defending corners like we are, the last time you want to play next are ones managed by Big sam.
Andy Carroll returned today and scored their winner and Kevin Nolan is always a nightmare to pick up just infront of the keeper from corners.
Think we'll concede at least one so let's hope the front three turn up again.
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Writing off the games we have against the big boys (Man Yoo, Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea) the rest of our fixtures give us a chance....if we can learn to defend. I reckon 16 points would just about scrape it. Has to start with 3 points vs the kit stealers though. No more chances to constantly blow leads and throw points away. Time to man up Villa.
West Ham home
Reading away
QPR home
Liverpool home
Stoke away
Fulham home
Sunderland home
Norwich away
Wigan away
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I have been having a look at our remaining games.
Trying to be objective and not letting my heart rule my head, I have come up with the following possible results:
Everton - draw
West Ham - Villa win
Arsenal - Villa loss
Man City - Villa loss
Reading - Villa win
QPR - Villa win
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - draw
Norwich - Villa loss
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa loss
This would leave us finishing our league campaign on 35 points. :'(
Is that enough?
Good start !
You got the first one right but if the rest goes to plan that's going to be a very scary end of season with just one point from the last five games! I don't think my old ticker would survive that!
Looking at the table today I see we're looking very symmetrical..
P26 F26 A52 GD -26
From now on in we have to reverse that and score twice as many as we concede.
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Writing off the games we have against the big boys (Man Yoo, Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea) the rest of our fixtures give us a chance....if we can learn to defend.
Well, we haven't done in three seasons!
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I have been having a look at our remaining games.
Trying to be objective and not letting my heart rule my head, I have come up with the following possible results:
Everton - draw
West Ham - Villa win
Arsenal - Villa loss
Man City - Villa loss
Reading - Villa win
QPR - Villa win
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - draw
Norwich - Villa loss
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa loss
This would leave us finishing our league campaign on 35 points. :'(
Is that enough?
Good start !
You got the first one right but if the rest goes to plan that's going to be a very scary end of season with just one point from the last five games! I don't think my old ticker would survive that!
Looking at the table today I see we're looking very symmetrical..
P26 F26 A52 GD -26
From now on in we have to reverse that and score twice as many as we concede.
Sorry but the Sky app I took that table off appears to have put yesterday's scores on twice.
Should be. 25 23 49 -26
I'll stick to the Argus in future!
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I reckon if we finish on 35 points it would be 50/50 we stayed up.
The way I feel now if you guaranteed 14 points from the last 13 I would bite your hand off and take my chances.
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I would doubt if 35 will be enough but if we get 38 we may just do it - beating Wigan away to stay up is a banker.
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So would I.
I have the sense we'll go down on goal difference, it will be cruely fitting the way the season has gone since we kicked off at Chelsea.
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I think we'll win 4 (West Ham, Reading, Fulham, Norwich), and draw 4 (QPR, Sunderland, Chelsea, Wigan) and stay up. Just.
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I don't think we'll get 30 if I'm honest. Hope I'm wrong but just can't see it.
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we could do with some of our relegation rivals getting an absolute pasting.
it's so tight, it will come down to goal difference.
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That game at Wigan on the last day of the season could well turn out to be a relegation decider between us and them.
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Zoggy to zig-zag his way through his old stomping ground and piss on their goalie to grant us eternal salvation and Wigan damnation. For another twelve months anyroad.
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I'm going to have to try and stay optimistic even if we all know that we are completely shite and useless both on and off the pitch. I think we'll need 18pts or 6 wins to guarantee safety, so if we cant get the points from these teams then we really do deserve to go down...
West Ham
Reading
QPR
Fulham
Sunderland
Norwich
Wigan
We may pick up the odd draw or freak win from the higher placed teams, but these games are our realistic chance of staying up and theres 21 winnable points available there to guarantee safety.
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Norwich and West Ham are going to be right in the mix, especially after we've given the later a good beating on Sunday.
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Norwich and West Ham are going to be right in the mix, especially after we've given the later a good beating on Sunday.
I think both need just three more wins in 13 games and doubt they will fall into the pack now .
Looks to be 3 from the bottom 5 to me.
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Look at Norwich though. Should they lose at the weekend and we win, then the gap will be four points, with us having to go there and with a chance to turn that four into one.
A lot of water will pass under the bridge, the only certainty at the moment is QPR going down. Not beating Reading, us, Norwich, Southampton et al at home has done them.
I hope they go bump too for the money they charge to go into that death-trap.
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5 wins in the last 40 odd league games. It's going to take a significant change in momentum to get 4 or 5 in the last 13. Can't see it myself. Think we'll finish bottom with 28-30.
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5 wins in the last 40 odd league games. It's going to take a significant change in momentum to get 4 or 5 in the last 13. Can't see it myself. Think we'll finish bottom with 28-30.
Sadly I agree with this. Any sort of half decent run- ie 5 wins in 13 games- would probably see us right but I just don't think we're capable of it. We've shown a chronic inability to win games for well over a year now and I can't see it changing soon.
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I think Wigan and QPR are going to go. I don't think Reading are any good at all.
In fact I cannot believe having watched them at our place, that they have actually won any games this season.
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I think Wigan and QPR are going to go. I don't think Reading are any good at all.
In fact I cannot believe having watched them at our place, that they have actually won any games this season.
I suspect a lot of people think the same about us.
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5 wins in the last 40 odd league games. It's going to take a significant change in momentum to get 4 or 5 in the last 13. Can't see it myself. Think we'll finish bottom with 28-30.
Sadly I agree with this. Any sort of half decent run- ie 5 wins in 13 games- would probably see us right but I just don't think we're capable of it. We've shown a chronic inability to win games for well over a year now and I can't see it changing soon.
The key could be if we can somehow get Dunne fit and play him alongside Vlaar. That would give us a much more solid base to work from. I still think if Dunne had comeback on schedule last September we wouldn't be in such a mess.
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Beat the hammers and we'd be looking at needing just another three wins and a few draws...I think we will beat West Ham. My deep pessimism is lifting.
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Beat the hammers and we'd be looking at needing just another three wins and a few draws...I think we will beat West Ham. My deep pessimism is lifting.
I have a post it note in my bottom draw in my office, where I am marking off the points. There is a little matrix of home wins, away wins, home points and away points.
I was very pleased to make my first recording in the box marked "unexpected points".
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Must beat West Ham.
Even a point just to stop the rot at VP isn't enough I feel.
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5 wins in the last 40 odd league games. It's going to take a significant change in momentum to get 4 or 5 in the last 13. Can't see it myself. Think we'll finish bottom with 28-30.
Sadly I agree with this. Any sort of half decent run- ie 5 wins in 13 games- would probably see us right but I just don't think we're capable of it. We've shown a chronic inability to win games for well over a year now and I can't see it changing soon.
The key could be if we can somehow get Dunne fit and play him alongside Vlaar. That would give us a much more solid base to work from. I still think if Dunne had comeback on schedule last September we wouldn't be in such a mess.
Richard Dunne is just this season's Carlos Cuellar: a player who goes from maligned scapegoat to world beater by simply not playing.
The fact is we needed Vlaar to come back from injury and sort the kids out. Instead he's cost us two very important goals....at least.
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We need four wins I reckon which when you write it like that doesn't seem a big deal but in the context of 5 wins in 40 or whatever it is then of course it is.
West Ham is a must-win as others have said but not just for the immediate boost of three points but also to put an end to this wretched Villa Park run. If we're to stand a chance we've got to start getting points at home.
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If we don't win on sunday, then I call game, set and match.
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5 wins in the last 40 odd league games. It's going to take a significant change in momentum to get 4 or 5 in the last 13. Can't see it myself. Think we'll finish bottom with 28-30.
Quite - we are currently bottom of the form league - only us and Norwich have failed to win a single league fixture during the last 8 league games. Massive change in form required - not impossible of course but if we don't beat West Ham then its hard to see where that turnaround in form will begin.
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How many 'must wins' have we had recently? Off the top of my head I can think of Wigan, Saints and Newcastle...and we all know what we got from them. It's the hope that kills you!
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How many 'must wins' have we had recently? Off the top of my head I can think of Wigan, Saints and Newcastle...and we all know what we got from them. It's the hope that kills you!
Despair kills you as well. In the long run we are all dead.
There's nothing left but faith.
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We have had little runs of form throughout the season. I think we're on a good run now. But just like the run that finished at Liverpool we're not picking up enough points.
We lose home and draw away. It's only going one way. I think we'll do well to get to 32, let alone 35 or 36 (which shouldn't be enough anyway).
We have the worst squad in the league by a distance, certainly the most unbalanced. Only Reading have less quality than us and they're on a good run and have momentum. I think we're down and we'll end up bottom.
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Norwich and Fulham play each other next, a winner in that game and that team is out of it.
Although I think they're both too far ahead.
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5 wins in the last 40 odd league games. It's going to take a significant change in momentum to get 4 or 5 in the last 13. Can't see it myself. Think we'll finish bottom with 28-30.
Sadly I agree with this. Any sort of half decent run- ie 5 wins in 13 games- would probably see us right but I just don't think we're capable of it. We've shown a chronic inability to win games for well over a year now and I can't see it changing soon.
The key could be if we can somehow get Dunne fit and play him alongside Vlaar. That would give us a much more solid base to work from. I still think if Dunne had comeback on schedule last September we wouldn't be in such a mess.
Richard Dunne is just this season's Carlos Cuellar: a player who goes from maligned scapegoat to world beater by simply not playing.
I don't think anyone is suggesting he's a world beater - but if you had to pick the one player in our squad likely to stick his head underneath an opposition corner it would be Dunne.
If we'd been better at that over the last month or so, we could easily be six points better off and looking forward to a cup final.
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Norwich and Fulham play each other next, a winner in that game and that team is out of it.
Although I think they're both too far ahead.
Think I'd prefer both to get safe as quickly as possible as we play both in our 6 games and it's usually good to play mid table teams with nothing to play for if you need points to stay up.
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35 points won't keep us up. Not with our goal difference.
A position of going to Wigan knowing victory would mean redemption is the best we can hope for now. Our fans would be there in force too.
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35 points won't keep us up. Not with our goal difference.
A position of going to Wigan knowing victory would mean redemption is the best we can hope for now. Our fans would be there in force too.
To be honest big dick i wouldnt fancy going to wigan needing a win , i think we need at least 38 points.
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35 points won't keep us up. Not with our goal difference.
A position of going to Wigan knowing victory would mean redemption is the best we can hope for now. Our fans would be there in force too.
To be honest big dick i wouldnt fancy going to wigan needing a win , i think we need at least 38 points.
Is his name Dick or do you know something we don't?
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35 points won't keep us up. Not with our goal difference.
A position of going to Wigan knowing victory would mean redemption is the best we can hope for now. Our fans would be there in force too.
To be honest big dick i wouldnt fancy going to wigan needing a win , i think we need at least 38 points.
I wouldn't be over-confident myself but our fans would be there in huge numbers backing the team. At least we'd know precisely what we had to do.
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Well whatever happens, a really low points tally will keep teams up this season, could even be lower than 35.
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Could be as low as 32 points needed to stay up
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Theres usually another team that no ones expecting that runs into a spot of bother around this time of year and finds themselves in the scrap too. Could it be Norwich or Fulham, neither in great form. Norwich havent won in their last 6.
A win tomorrow and we'll be just 5 points behind them.
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Man City beat Southampton and its been a perfect day for us without even playing, need to make the most of it tomorrow.. please
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Could be as low as 32 points needed to stay up
I dont think so- there will be some shock results along the way - i would hope for 38 at least to be safe.
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Lots to come. We can improve. A win tomorrow against the shirt stealer's and we'll be on our way!
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Could be as low as 32 points needed to stay up
I dont think so- there will be some shock results along the way - i would hope for 38 at least to be safe.
Yeah but don't forget the teams down there will all be playing each other aswell....Reading v QPR, QPR V Southampton, Wigan v Norwich etc.
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Could be as low as 32 points needed to stay up
I dont think so- there will be some shock results along the way - i would hope for 38 at least to be safe.
I don't see it this year, the divide between the top 5-6 and the rest of the league is too big right now, which means every position outside that is low on points. 34-35 will be enough to keep someone up, I'm fairly certain of it.
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We dont want to start lowering our sights - lets aim for at least 38 and if it turns out less all well and good.
If you offered me 35 points at the end of the season i wouldnt take it - i would like a bit more.
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35 would do us. That said, I don't think we will get 30
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35 would do us. That said, I don't think we will get 30
If we got 35 that means reading would need 12 points from 12 games to send us down- i think we need more .
The fact that reading have taken 10 points from their last 5 games including todays result suggests asking them to get 12 from 12 is not that big an ask.
It would also mean newcastle and saints would need 8 points from 12 games to finish above us - no i do not think 35 will be enough at all.
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35 would do us. That said, I don't think we will get 30
If we got 35 that means reading would need 12 points from 12 games to send us down- i think we need more .
The fact that reading have taken 10 points from their last 5 games including todays result suggests asking them to get 12 from 12 is not that big an ask.
It would also mean newcastle and saints would need 8 points from 12 games to finish above us - no i do not think 35 will be enough at all.
Reading's final 6 away fixture are Man. United, Arsenal, Everton, Fulham, Norwich and West Ham. Can't see them getting many points there. If they get points at Fulham and Norwich that will send both of those teams in the shit.
It would obviously be advisable for us not to lose at their madjeski as they'll see that as one of their winnable remaining games.
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We'll get 37 points and stay up. Put your house on it*
*Don't come crying to me if i'm completely wrong.
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We'll get 37 points and stay up. Put your house on it*
*Don't come crying to me if i'm completely wrong.
I will tell you now. Not a prayer of either.
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Looking at the fixtures I think we get 38 points min. More likely 41.
This all depends on a home boosting win tomorrow.
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35 would do us. That said, I don't think we will get 30
If we got 35 that means reading would need 12 points from 12 games to send us down- i think we need more .
The fact that reading have taken 10 points from their last 5 games including todays result suggests asking them to get 12 from 12 is not that big an ask.
It would also mean newcastle and saints would need 8 points from 12 games to finish above us - no i do not think 35 will be enough at all.
I think Reading have had a lot of luck lately, and we have had none. These things have a habit of evening out over the season, and I think Reading may have had all theirs in the last few games. I thin we may have 2 or 3 scabby last minute wins in us yet.
Live in hope!!!!
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We'll get 37 points and stay up. Put your house on it*
*Don't come crying to me if i'm completely wrong.
Just been round to Tony Saprono and he said he knows your address.
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I actually think we will go on an unbeaten run which started at everton and will continue for quite a while. No I'm not joking
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I actually think we will go on an unbeaten run which started at everton and will continue for quite a while. No I'm not joking
I do too.
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You two have checked who we are playing in the 2 fixtures after WHU right?
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I don't like all this shit.
Take it one game at a time, you could drive yourself mad thinking of permutations and you'll never get it right.
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I don't like all this shit.
Take it one game at a time, you could drive yourself mad thinking of permutations and you'll never get it right.
Could'nt agree more.
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Looking at the fixtures I think we get 38 points min. More likely 41.
This all depends on a home boosting win tomorrow.
Your conditional comment really sums up where we are! Take each game as it comes!
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I don't like all this shit.
Take it one game at a time, you could drive yourself mad thinking of permutations and you'll never get it right.
Could'nt agree more.
Absolutely, there's nothing worse on here to my mind that the threads that start appearing now which try to dissect in minute detail what we and every team around us will do in each match. It is always totally way out - witness last season for example and taking even just one team, Wigan, shows what a total waste of time it is to try and predict results. I find it fascinating too that people think they can do it with such certainty as well. No way we were going to lose to Bolton at home last season, no way, absolutely nailed on three points....
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Have avoided he bbc predictor as its a waste of time - there will be shock results along the way and we mist hope we come out the other side safe - if it was so easy to predict we would all be rich men .
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I have been having a look at our remaining games.
Trying to be objective and not letting my heart rule my head, I have come up with the following possible results:
Everton - draw
West Ham - Villa win
Arsenal - Villa loss
Man City - Villa loss
Reading - Villa win
QPR - Villa win
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - draw
Norwich - Villa loss
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa loss
This would leave us finishing our league campaign on 35 points. :'(
Is that enough?
2 out of 2, well done, hope your next 2 are wrong though.
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Suddenly 35 or 36 points dosen't seem that far away....3 wins and 3 draws.
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I have been having a look at our remaining games.
Trying to be objective and not letting my heart rule my head, I have come up with the following possible results:
Everton - draw
West Ham - Villa win
Arsenal - Villa loss
Man City - Villa loss
Reading - Villa win
QPR - Villa win
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - draw
Norwich - Villa loss
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa loss
This would leave us finishing our league campaign on 35 points. :'(
Is that enough?
2 out of 2, well done, hope your next 2 are wrong though.
I really hope my next 2 are wrong as well!
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Let's hope when we play Fulham and Sunderland in April they're comfy in mid table and are as bad as West Ham were today. I'm looking at two wins there and 4 points from Reading and QPR. 10 Points from those 4 games and I reckon a couple of draws would be good enough from the other fixtures.
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Please Villa prove me wrong!!!
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36 i reckon. mebbe 37 with our goal difference
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Draws against Reading, Liverpool and Wigan, with wins against QPR, Fulham and Sunderland puts us on 36.
There is always room for chopping and changing, such as a win or a point at Norwich or Stoke, But the Reading and Wigan games are must not lose and the QPR is a must win.
Twelve more points is not a million miles away at all.
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I'm looking at Norwich as our away win tbh, think we'll draw at Reading.
They'll be safe by then and surely after battering them in the cup, that's one ground the players will be confident going to?!
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WE ARE NOT GOING DOWN.
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West Ham dropping right back into this is good news imo.
Just looked and their final two home games are Wigan and Reading. Beat both of those and they'll stay up and help us, lose both and they will be in major trouble as their away run in is probably the worst of all the teams down and they'll get nought if they play like they did at VP.
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Hard to believe Sam Messiah Allardyce will allow West Ham to drop into it.
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All I said was teams don't go down from the premier league under his watch so they'll probably flirt a bit before getting 4 points off Wigan and Reading and staying up.
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I actually think we will go on an unbeaten run which started at everton and will continue for quite a while. No I'm not joking
I do too.
Quack quack oops
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Hard to believe Sam Messiah Allardyce will allow West Ham to drop into it.
They have Stoke away and Chelsea away next.
I am sure after that though, he will get them back on track with some good wins, no doubt playing some really good stuff along the way.
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Maybe, just cant see where they`re coming from though.
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Looking at the table this morning, anything from 10th down (Stoke) is potential drop-zone.
All it needs is a couple of teams to go on a run of wins and a couple to flunk out completely and everything changes.
Question: can Lambert and Villa get their crap together to put on a run of wins?
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35 points wouldn't save us.
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35 points wouldn't save us.
And neither will we get 35 points.
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35 points wouldn't save us.
And neither will we get 35 points.
You're right, we'll get 42.
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35 points wouldn't save us.
And neither will we get 35 points.
You're right, we'll get 42.
If we get 42 points i will be very surprised indeed.Happy but surprised.
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I won't be surprised, as I wrote it down at the end of January. I have got one result wrong thus far, the Everton game, which was a nice wrong.
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I think 38 has to be the minimum target. Any less than that and you are on very, very dodgy ground.
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I think 38 has to be the minimum target. Any less than that and you are on very, very dodgy ground.
Yes that is the minimum for me - i would prefer 39 due to our goal diff.
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Hard to believe Sam Messiah Allardyce will allow West Ham to drop into it.
No chance. At this very moment he is closeted with his top team of sports astrologers, Feng Shui consultants and vegan nutritionists to devise ways of lumping it into the mixer for Andy Carroll.
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I won't be surprised, as I wrote it down at the end of January. I have got one result wrong thus far, the Everton game, which was a nice wrong.
Encouraging!
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I won't be surprised, as I wrote it down at the end of January. I have got one result wrong thus far, the Everton game, which was a nice wrong.
I really want to believe you have a gift. I just can't see Villa getting 42 points.
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I was sitting in the office yesterday and heard everybody moaning about Rosey Cooper (a Labour MP). Never seen her before but got a sense she was a chubby un. Which she is. I was then asked by a colleague what I thought her pal Rosie looked like. Short and red haired says I, on the money says my colleague.
Believe.
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Statistically' for 20 team league, average is 37.6 points. 40 points has been enough in 18 of 20 seasons. No team has managed more than 2 points a game in the last 10 games.
Ergo, I think QPR are down already.
We need 4 points from the next 3 games.
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So this is the remaining fixtures and my prediction:
Man City - Villa loss - 24pts
Reading - draw - 25pts
QPR - draw - 26pts
Liverpool - Liverpool Win - 26pts
Stoke - draw - 27pts
Fulham - draw - 28pts
Man Utd - Man U win - 28pts
Sunderland - draw - 29pts
Norwich - Villa loss - 29pts - Villa relegated, pressure is off.
Chelsea - draw - 30pts
Wigan - Villa win - 33pts (We take Wigan down with us with this result and Reading survive by goal difference alone) Attendance 26,350
QPR, Wigan and Villa go down.
If we beat Reading, QPR and Stoke we will turn it around but if we lose one of those games then its all over as far as I'm concerned.
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I would take losing at Stoke if it mean 6 points off Reading and QPR.
Apart from Monday night, draws won't be much use to us for the rest of the season, we need to win games.
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So this is the remaining fixtures and my prediction:
Man City - Villa loss - 24pts
Reading - draw - 25pts
QPR - draw - 26pts
Liverpool - Liverpool Win - 26pts
Stoke - draw - 27pts
Fulham - draw - 28pts
Man Utd - Man U win - 28pts
Sunderland - draw - 29pts
Norwich - Villa loss - 29pts - Villa relegated, pressure is off.
Chelsea - draw - 30pts
Wigan - Villa win - 33pts (We take Wigan down with us with this result and Reading survive by goal difference alone) Attendance 26,350
QPR, Wigan and Villa go down.
If we beat Reading, QPR and Stoke we will turn it around but if we lose one of those games then its all over as far as I'm concerned.
Your glass is definitely less than half empty if you can only predict a win against Wigan on the last game of the season. You deserve a medal for the most depressing set of predictions I've read.
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Pretty happy with things today. Fair enough QPR have a chance now but o get to 35 they need to win 5/10 which I think is still a very big ask and they've sucked Southampton right back into danger.
Big thing for me is goal difference has come right back into play now, Wigan currently on -22 and Reading on -20.
And Sunderland are not out of danger by any stretch.
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Pretty happy with things today. Fair enough QPR have a chance now but o get to 35 they need to win 5/10 which I think is still a very big ask and they've sucked Southampton right back into danger.
Big thing for me is goal difference has come right back into play now, Wigan currently on -22 and Reading on -20.
And Sunderland are not out of danger by any stretch.
Agree. There is a danger that today's win could give QPR momentum, but It'll be tough for them regardless. We need as many teams involved as possible - welcome back Southampton.
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Reading seem to have got over that good run, lets hope that continues. Need to show some balls on Monday and grind out something, if only to give us confidence for the following two games.
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Agreed, even just a point on monday would get us out of the bottom 3 and with the two games after that we would have a good chance of staying out of there for a while.
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Am beginning to believe ! Think there is no one else in the bottom 6 I fear, its whether we can keep the goals out, our attack is potent if on form.
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Pretty happy with things today. Fair enough QPR have a chance now but o get to 35 they need to win 5/10 which I think is still a very big ask and they've sucked Southampton right back into danger.
Big thing for me is goal difference has come right back into play now, Wigan currently on -22 and Reading on -20.
And Sunderland are not out of danger by any stretch.
Agree, not a bad day. Southampton appeared to be playing very well since Xmas but you never know, today could really drag them back in. If we don't get the results then it won't matter. Really hoping for a fighting performance and a point on Monday. Think we will win at Reading.
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if we win at Reading the momentum will carry us forward to beat QPR too
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4 points will be acceptable from Reading and QPR. Would love 6 obviously but at this stage of the season it's as much stopping the others winning games.
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Where do people think the relegation line can be drawn now? For me it's Newcastle down although realistically I think they have a bit too much quality to get involved but they still need a couple of wins to make sure. I don't know how Norwich have got out of it or West Ham but they're safe now surely. Could've just done with a bit more ruthlessness from Liverpool, 6 nil and we'd have been back on terms with Wigan. Monday is a bonus game, as long as we don't let them rack up a cricket score we might as well have a go as only QPR have landed a punch this round, the calm expressions from a few weeks ago on the faces of Martinez and McDermott have been replaced by serious concern.
4 points is the minimum requirement from Reading and QPR, the fall back position is just don't lose either match.
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Up to Sunderland imo who have a tough run in but could be sucked in like we were from this time last season.
Realisitically the 3 will come from the current bottom 4.
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Aston Villa are the new Carlos Cuellar. The longer we leave it between games the better we get.
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The question now is, can this new Saints manager halt their slide? Am I right in thinking he couldn't get his last club in Spain out of the shit? Let's hope he's a bottle job
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Up to Sunderland imo who have a tough run in but could be sucked in like we were from this time last season.
Realisitically the 3 will come from the current bottom 4 ...
... unless one or two actually put together a streak of winning form. I stilll think there are 7-8 clubs in the drop zone.
The challenge for Lambert is making sure that this squad of ours starts doing things differently: not conceding cheap goals.
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Could it be the case that drawing with both Reading and QPR and amassing two points would potentially be better than winning one and losing the other as the team that beats us will have gained ground/overtaken us? How queer.
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I'd prefer to win both but you're probably right HQ
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Interestingly, just sat in a different office for ten minutes installing some new software for someone, and there was a QPR and Reading fan in there, plus an Arse, discussing footie. I just earwigged, they didn;t know I'm a Villa fan. The QPR fan is utterly convinced they are staying up, absolutely adamant they will win 3 of their next 4, and thinks even the next 6 are winnable (haven't checked the fixtures) The reading fan has given up, and they all think Wigan and Villa "are gone". Stoke is there tip for the one to get dragged into it. I said nothing, but thought it was interesting how others see it.
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The two sides that are above QPR and Reading are both gone?
Bizzare.
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Massive win for OPR at the weekend and they are only four points off wigan. Our game with them and Reading will determine our survival or not, i think
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I have been having a look at our remaining games.
Trying to be objective and not letting my heart rule my head, I have come up with the following possible results:
Everton - draw
West Ham - Villa win
Arsenal - Villa loss
Man City - Villa loss
Reading - Villa win
QPR - Villa win
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - draw
Norwich - Villa loss
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa loss
This would leave us finishing our league campaign on 35 points. :'(
Is that enough?
I would take the results up to Sunderland now. Would then hope for 2 or 3 pts from the last 3 games.
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I don't think you can say what the bottom end of points you need for safety is for a few weeks yet. Let's take each one as they come for now.
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The QPR fan is utterly convinced they are staying up, absolutely adamant they will win 3 of their next 4, and thinks even the next 6 are winnable (haven't checked the fixtures)
They are playing mostly lower half of the league teams...
Sunderland
Villa
Fulham
Wigan
Everton
Stoke
Reading
Arsenal
Newcastle
Liverpool
...its essential that we beat QPR at Villa Park.
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Up to Sunderland imo who have a tough run in but could be sucked in like we were from this time last season.
Realisitically the 3 will come from the current bottom 4 ...
... unless one or two actually put together a streak of winning form. I stilll think there are 7-8 clubs in the drop zone.
The challenge for Lambert is making sure that this squad of ours starts doing things differently: not conceding cheap goals.
Agree Mister E. I think I would be wise to try and approach the remaining games with a counter-attack mentality. Give our full-backs a bit more defensive cover, invite teams onto us and then try and hit them on the break. We've got the players to do it, but has Lambert got the nous to change things?
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I have been having a look at our remaining games.
Trying to be objective and not letting my heart rule my head, I have come up with the following possible results:
Everton - draw
West Ham - Villa win
Arsenal - Villa loss
Man City - Villa loss
Reading - Villa win
QPR - Villa win
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - draw
Norwich - Villa loss
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa loss
This would leave us finishing our league campaign on 35 points. :'(
Is that enough?
I'm hoping for 5 out of 5 tomorrow. C'mon you Villa boys
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Redknapp seems to think 37 points will be enough (they have the 2nd worst goal difference aswell).
Cue loads of comments on here on how he's spot on but we'll need 40 points just to be on the safe side.
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I have been having a look at our remaining games.
Trying to be objective and not letting my heart rule my head, I have come up with the following possible results:
Everton - draw
West Ham - Villa win
Arsenal - Villa loss
Man City - Villa loss
Reading - Villa win
QPR - Villa win
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - draw
Norwich - Villa loss
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa loss
This would leave us finishing our league campaign on 35 points. :'(
Is that enough?
I'm hoping for 5 out of 5 tomorrow. C'mon you Villa boys
Stoke, Sunderland, Norwich and Wigan i would go for a Villa win and possibly against the Bindippers aswell. Safe as houses.
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Could it be the case that drawing with both Reading and QPR and amassing two points would potentially be better than winning one and losing the other as the team that beats us will have gained ground/overtaken us? How queer.
The worry for me though is that would be two winnable games gone without a win and we'd probably still need another 10 points on top of that to feel reasonably comfortable with staying in the league.
No good two draws if say Wigan get 4 points from the next two and they have Newcastle and Norwich at home which I think they are capable of doing.
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I have been having a look at our remaining games.
Trying to be objective and not letting my heart rule my head, I have come up with the following possible results:
Everton - draw
West Ham - Villa win
Arsenal - Villa loss
Man City - Villa loss
Reading - Villa win
QPR - Villa win
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - draw
Norwich - Villa loss
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa loss
This would leave us finishing our league campaign on 35 points. :'(
Is that enough?
5 out of 5
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I have been having a look at our remaining games.
Trying to be objective and not letting my heart rule my head, I have come up with the following possible results:
Everton - draw
West Ham - Villa win
Arsenal - Villa loss
Man City - Villa loss
Reading - Villa win
QPR - Villa win
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - draw
Norwich - Villa loss
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa loss
This would leave us finishing our league campaign on 35 points. :'(
Is that enough?
5 out of 5
Lets hope his last 5 aren't right though as he has us taking 1 point from the last 15.
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If we end up with 35 we're gone.
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If we can somehow get to the same points total as Norwich at some point we'll have given ourselves one hell of a chance as I firmly believe we are now a better side than them. I think today was last chance saloon for Reading and they are goners. QPR really have to beat us next weekend and if they don't I think they will go too. Then you should be looking at 1 from us, Wigan, Saints and an outside chance of Sunderland or Norwich. Newcastle surely have too much quality although a couple of key injuries here and there and anything could happen I suppose.
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I have just done the predictor thingy on BBC. It is so incredibly close, the only side down I reckon are Reading. Wigan have a tough old run in too, and lightening surely cannot keep striking. I had us, Fulham, Sunderland, QPR and Stoke all in the mix on the last day, but crucially Wigan already down.
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We really need a win against QPR next Saturday to get a bit of breathing space.
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I have just done the predictor thingy on BBC. It is so incredibly close, the only side down I reckon are Reading. Wigan have a tough old run in too, and lightening surely cannot keep striking. I had us, Fulham, Sunderland, QPR and Stoke all in the mix on the last day, but crucially Wigan already down.
Fulham & Stoke? That's surprising. Surely they only need 1 win to be safe?
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It will be interesting the effect wigans Wembley run will have on their league form , they could have 3 games to rearrange and it could take its toll on their squad.
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I have been having a look at our remaining games.
Trying to be objective and not letting my heart rule my head, I have come up with the following possible results:
Everton - draw
West Ham - Villa win
Arsenal - Villa loss
Man City - Villa loss
Reading - Villa win
QPR - Villa win
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - draw
Norwich - Villa loss
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa loss
This would leave us finishing our league campaign on 35 points. :'(
Is that enough?
5 out of 5
Lets hope his last 5 aren't right though as he has us taking 1 point from the last 15.
I hope my last 5 are totally wrong aswell.
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I hope your/our last five are LWWLW
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I hope your/our last five are LWWLW
I hope our last five are WWWWW.
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So do I, but I was trying to be realistic.
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We play well away from home and more importantly we score goals.
We've scored 2 at Swansea, WBA, Reading and 3 at Everton since Chelsea and indeed them, Arsenal and Man. City are the only away games we've lost since October.
All that leads me to suggets we'll pick up another 4 points away between now and the end. I'm thinking win at Norwich and draw at Stoke or Wigan.
That would get us on 31 points and 37 will certainly be enough so you'd like to think we can get two more wins at VP.
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We need 37 or 38 (depends on goal difference getting better)
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I think 37 is the minimum with our goal dif. Still think we are going to give someone a spanking when all our forward players click on a given day. Hope it is next week :-))))
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Just looking back at the past two years.
With ten games left in 2010-11 we had 33 points. Under TSM last season we also had 33.
Obviously we went on a good run in our final eight games in 10-11 whereas we sank like a stone under TSM and just stayed up. I still think we have (at least) three more wins in us before we play Wigan.
We certainly have given ourself a good chance of staying up.
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Hansen was suggesting that everyone below Sunderland could be in trouble (7th bottom), I think it is still open upto 10th with Fulham only on 36 points!
QPR - Win
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa draw
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - Win
Norwich - Villa Win
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa draw
This will drag Norwich, Sunderland and Stoke into the mix. West Ham have got Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City away in the next phase of games along with Southampton and have West Brom and Wigan at home.
It will probably go to the wire, bottom three in May
West Ham
Southampton
Reading
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I've earmarked QPR, Fulham and Stoke as the games we have our best chances of winning. Add three draws to those and I think we would do it. Just.
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I've earmarked QPR, Fulham and Stoke as the games we have our best chances of winning. Add three draws to those and I think we would do it. Just.
Surely we should be more likely to beat sunderland than win at stoke although we can beat both?
I think we need 38 points and my 3 to drop are reading, wigan and southampton.
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I can see MON coming back to VP and winning. Most probably their only win for the rest of the season as well.
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I can see MON coming back to VP and winning. Most probably their only win for the rest of the season as well.
I can imagine his pre-match talk.
'I'll give each and every one of you £10,000 of my personal money if you beat these ungrateful bastards.'
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I can see MON coming back to VP and winning. Most probably their only win for the rest of the season as well.
I can imagine his pre-match talk.
'I'll give each and every one of you £10,000 of my personal money if you beat these ungrateful bastards.'
That's what we said last year and they were as impotent as we were under TSM.
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I can see MON coming back to VP and winning. Most probably their only win for the rest of the season as well.
I can imagine his pre-match talk.
'I'll give each and every one of you £10,000 of my personal money if you beat these ungrateful bastards.'
That's what we said last year and they were as impotent as we were under TSM.
Both teams were pretty rubbish, but didn't Bendtner have a late goal wrongly ruled out for offside? So we could easily have lost.
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We need to get as close to 40 points as we can.
Games we must identify as wins are:
QPR
Fulham
Wigan
Sunderland
Games we could win but at least a point
Stoke
Norwich
Liverpool
Games were we won't get anything
Chelsea
Man Utd
So, we should be aiming for 15 points to finish on 42. If we get as low as 35 we'll be gone. I think 38 will relegate someone and our goal difference is crucial.
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I think we might get something against Chelsea. Anyone who played in that last game will have a point to prove and their league season will probably be over by then.
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I think we might get something against Chelsea. Anyone who played in that last game will have a point to prove and their league season will probably be over by then.
Hopefully Chelsea will have their eyes on the Europa league final and rest the big guns, utd will have the title wrapped up and take their eyes off the ball and wigan will have a fixture backlog and implode.
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35 points won't be enough, it'll be 38 at least with our goal difference.
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35 points won't be enough, it'll be 38 at least with our goal difference.
Agreed.
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I've just gone through the remaining fixtures and I have it running to the last game with a draw keeping us up.
Southampton 39
Villa 37
QPR 34
Wigan 34
Reading 30
I'm one of the optimists though :)
QPR 2-1
Liverpool 0-2
Stoke 1-1
Fulham 1-0
Man Utd 0-2
Sunderland 1-1
Norwich 1-1
Chelsea 0-2
Wigan 1-1
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I have us safe on 37 points before the last game of the season, with QPR, Wigan and Reading to go down.
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I have us safe on 37 points before the last game of the season, with QPR, Wigan and Reading to go down.
Although I also have Tottenham finishing second, so could be wildly wrong!!
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I have us safe on 37 points before the last game of the season, with QPR, Wigan and Reading to go down.
Although I also have Tottenham finishing second, so could be wildly wrong!!
Much as I dislike SPurs it would be nice to burst the City bubble.
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To be on 30 points next saturday would be huge. It gives us 9 games remaining and if we can at least average a point a game, it should be enough.
I think the next two games will be vital and probably give an indication of where we'll finish.
4 points and we'll be in good shape to hit the high 30's and probably survive. If we get 6 from the next two not only will the confidence of winning 3 on the spin be huge, but on 33 points we'd fancy to finish over 40 by the seasons end.
We're more than capable of winning the next two. Do so and I'd fancy us to be safe by final day. I'd hate to be needing a result on the final day against Wigan. Our record against them isn't brilliant either, and Martinez has that knack for the great escape.
We've not been too bad of late. We go into some winnable fixtures on something of an upturn so hopefully that will be enough. But the that perennial Villa problem may happen again. Just when we think we're on the up, or just when we need a few results to kick on, we seem to balls it up. It's happen for years, under Gregory when we looked like we could possibly have a title push. Under O Neill in the final furlong pushing for 4th, and then games we should have been winning we started ballsing up.
Expectation kills us. That is my worry in the next two. We have to be looking at these as games to win given home against the bottom side, and a trip to Stoke who's form of late has been the worst poor.
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To be on 30 points next saturday would be huge. It gives us 9 games remaining and if we can at least average a point a game, it should be enough.
Isn't it eight after QPR?
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To be on 30 points next saturday would be huge. It gives us 9 games remaining and if we can at least average a point a game, it should be enough.
Isn't it eight after QPR?
It is. We should get an extra game if we're in the relegation zone after 38 matches though. I call it the mulligan game.
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To be on 30 points next saturday would be huge. It gives us 9 games remaining and if we can at least average a point a game, it should be enough.
Isn't it eight after QPR?
It is. We should get an extra game if we're in the relegation zone after 38 matches though. I call it the mulligan game.
Would the "Mulligan" game be started from scratch or from a particular post in the game ?
Which game did you have in mind ?
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We get to replay the last ninety seconds at Swansea.
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It is looking at all the fixtures and going through all the permutations time. But I am sure that if we beat Sunderland and QPR at home we will stay up. We should get enough odd points from other games. Beating QPR will give them alot to make up on us in seven games, beating S'land will probably put them right in it, and most of the teams around us will be taking a lot of points off each other in the run in.
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We get to replay the last ninety seconds at Swansea.
The way we defend the last ninety second of matches it'll probably see us go from one point to zero.
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I was never any good at reading statistics, so I'm just praying we get as many points as we can.
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I would love to see Sunderland get dragged into it, lets beat QPR and then we can be a bit more hopeful
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I would love to see Sunderland get dragged into it, lets beat QPR and then we can be a bit more hopeful
3 pts above us, and 2pts from the last 18. They are already in it.
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To be on 30 points next saturday would be huge. It gives us 9 games remaining and if we can at least average a point a game, it should be enough.
Isn't it eight after QPR?
It is. We should get an extra game if we're in the relegation zone after 38 matches though. I call it the mulligan game.
Would the "Mulligan" game be started from scratch or from a particular post in the game ?
Which game did you have in mind ?
Ooh, too many to choose from. Lets re-do the Chelsea game over and over until we beat them 8-0.
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If Sunderland get dragged back into it, it'll be very sweet indeed. I'd love to see it.
Looking over the next 6 or so fixtures. We have to be fancying QPR, Stoke, Fulham and Sunderland.
I'd also hope to see us pick up at least a point against Liverpool. We've got to go all out in these games. Get 3-4 wins out of that lot we're safe with time to spare. We've got winnable games, now it's a case of winning them.
We need Vlaar to stay fit and get a run of games too. He's got to settle in and shore our backline up. We also look better when Bennett isn't playing too, so I'd probably stick with Baker or Clark at left back.
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I think Harry Redknapp might have called it right with his 37 points target.
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Unless they beat us QPR would find it very difficult to get to that figure.
I reckond they'll finish on 33 points.
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I thought Bennett did ok at Arsenal to be fair. Really looking forward to the QPR game and reckon we are made for their tactics, a couple of goals better i reckon (fingers crossed)
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Unless they beat us QPR would find it very difficult to get to that figure.
That's what worries me. If they lose there is no way back for them. But it would not be the total end for us if we lost. Might make them the more motivated. Plus, whatever you think of 'arry, he is a canny manager, who will target and exploit all our weaknesses.
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Unless they beat us QPR would find it very difficult to get to that figure.
That's what worries me. If they lose there is no way back for them. But it would not be the total end for us if we lost. Might make them the more motivated. Plus, whatever you think of 'arry, he is a canny manager, who will target and exploit all our weaknesses.
Puts more pressure on them and we are probably a better counter attacking team.
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As I said on the other thread, QPR need the three points more than we do. Reading look dead and buried whereas QPR look capable of throwing up a few results. If it's a draw it's just a slight setback, we still will have winnable games and a four point cushion on a team that has had the momentum of late.
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It would be most unlike us to back-to-back wins together and would make things a lot easier - which just isn't the Villa way. I've thought for a while that we would beat Reading and drop points against QPR. If we have to, I just hope we don't let them take all 3 points. Draws aren't much use to them, especially against those around them.
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I hope everyone has taken into account our three points at 'The theatre that should be moved down South'. As tipped by Neil Warnock on Goals On Sunday. I think he followed that up with the quote "Villa strike me as a team that on their day could win anywhere".
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Beating QPR would be massive as it would make it very difficult for them to overtake us, making up 7 points in 8 games. If we made a point a game from our last 8 (minimum now anyway they would need 15 points from 8 to match our points - but looking at their fixtures feasible).
That said it would give us probably 80% certainty of us finishing above them and make it one from the three of us, Southampton and Wigan to go down.
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I hope everyone has taken into account our three points at 'The theatre that should be moved down South'. As tipped by Neil Warnock on Goals On Sunday. I think he followed that up with the quote "Villa strike me as a team that on their day could win anywhere".
He did say that and then predicted qpr to win at villa next week.
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I don't recall that bit. That must be down to the 'selective memory' my wife is always giving me stick for.
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A big game between Sunderland and Norwich too.
I think Norwich beating them would suit us more, as it means they are more likely to be safe in mid-table by the time that we come to play them, whereas Sunderland will be right in the mix and have to come to Villa Park.
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If villa stay up and Sunderland go down . That would just about make up for the last awful 3 seasons . It would be terrific.
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A Norwich win would be a huge blow to Sunderland. After the last two rounds of games Sunderland have replaced Norwich as my favourites to be dragged into it and maybe go down. When it comes to momentum, at the moment QPR have some, Reading don't, we are somewhere in between and Sunderland are really on the slide.
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If villa stay up and Sunderland go down . That would just about make up for the last awful 3 seasons . It would be terrific.
You might say that, and I..I..I...possibly wouldn't disagree with you.
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I don't have a grudge against MON. I take the piss out of 'Arry but I don't massively dislike him . Whelan isn't my favourite person in the world but I don't lie in bed at night sticking pins into effigies of him. Basically I just want any three to go down except us. I don't really have a preference as to who they are.
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Looking at our remaining fixtures, if we don't get at least two wins out of QPR, Sunderland, Norwich and Wigan then we deserve to go.
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If villa stay up and Sunderland go down . That would just about make up for the last awful 3 seasons . It would be terrific.
You might say that, and I..I..I...possibly wouldn't disagree with you.
*Pushes glasses up face, while bobbing around like a loonatic.
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MOTD really did push at the boundaries of self-control
Twitchy Twat followed by our beloved ex followed by Jenas, that most odious of blingy, punch me in the face types
I muted the whole lot
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Looking at our remaining fixtures, if we don't get at least two wins out of QPR, Sunderland, Norwich and Wigan then we deserve to go.
And Fulham.
I think we will get 39/40 points
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MOTD really did push at the boundaries of self-control
Twitchy Twat followed by our beloved ex followed by Jenas, that most odious of blingy, punch me in the face types
I muted the whole lot
Blood pressure up again Richard ?
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Ideal scenario next weekend - we win and Norwich win.
Sunderland's games for the rest of the season - Norwich (h), Man Utd (h), Chelsea (a), Newcastle (a), Everton (h), us (a), Stoke (h), Southampton (h) and Tottenham (a).
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Norwich is the game that could really suck them into it. After that, Sunderland have a tough set of fixtures. I could see them losing the next 4 after. I can't see them winning until Stoke either.
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I think Stoke and the 'ammers could get drawn into it if a couple of sides down there put a run together. They've both been pretty terrible away from home this year so are pretty much reliant on picking up points at home for stoke that means:
West Brom
Us
Man Utd
Norwich
Tottenham
That's not a simple set of games, with only really Norwich having nothing to play for (you'd expect). They don't even have the luxury of going away to someone with nothing to play for, with all their games against sides around the top and bottom who will be wanting to win their win at home themselves.
West ham aren't as at risk because, whilst they really have a terrible run of away games they should be able to pickup points at home.
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With 33 points already, Stoke should only need a couple of wins. Think we're looking at teams on 30 points and below.
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Sunderland could easily lose their final 4 away games....Us hopefully, Newcastle, Chelsea and Spurs on the last day.
And the Stadium of Light is an even more depressed place when things aren't going well than Villa Park. Would be interested to hear Davey B's take on things, shame he only posts when we play them.
In reality I think they'll beat Norwich and probably Stoke so will scrape home by a couple of points.
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It would be lovely to draw level on points with them come 17:00 on Saturday.
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MOTD really did push at the boundaries of self-control
Twitchy Twat followed by our beloved ex followed by Jenas, that most odious of blingy, punch me in the face types
I muted the whole lot
Blood pressure up again Richard ?
Ha, yes, Clive though the running I do probably mitigates the 'Villa effect'! Or at least, that is my theory....
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Just did the BBC Predictor thingy again and I had 6 teams(us, Wigan, QPR, West Ham, Sunderland and So'ton) on 36 points going into the last game, with Reading already down. Assuming QPR lose away to Lplop, and Sunderland lose away to Spurs, a point at Wigan will see us safe on 37 points with QPR and Sunderland down. Lose at Wigan and we go down on goal difference. I think we need at least 37 to stay up - preferably 38.
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19th with 32 points for me.
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19th with 32 points for me.
Sadly this sounds about right.
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19th with 32 points for me.
Sadly this sounds about right.
With 27 points to play for you can only see us getting only another 5?
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Well we've played for 87 and got 27 so its not a completely 'left-field' assumption.
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I have just done that BBC predictor for the first time. I had us, Southampton and Sunderland all staying up on 38. QPR going down with 36, Wigan 33 and Reading rock bottom.
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Well we've played for 87 and got 27 so its not a completely 'left-field' assumption.
Yeah but you're meant to be reasonably optimistic, not a misery arse.
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Well we've played for 87 and got 27 so its not a completely 'left-field' assumption.
That means we've got 31% of the available points so far and you're now suggesting we'll get 18.5% of the remainder. That's a dramatic slump in our form to this point, when we've actually been doing reasonably well since the 2nd half against Newcastle.
So yes, I would say it's a left field assumption.
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We haven't been doing reasonably well. We beat a very poor West Ham and an even worse Reading. If teams open us up as easily as Reading seemed to we'll get a beating. We did okay at Arsenal but again conceded late and were poor against a relatively poor Man City. As the pressure intensifies I think the less experienced players will crumble. if we win on Saturday I'll do the predictions again and will probably be a little more positive. As it is i've gone from 100% certain of relelgation to 90% after Saturday.
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i'm 110% certain we will know at the end of the season. i think.
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I have just done that BBC predictor for the first time. I had us, Southampton and Sunderland all staying up on 38. QPR going down with 36, Wigan 33 and Reading rock bottom.
I had very similar. I had Southampton(38), us(39) and Sunderland(40) all staying up. QPR going down with 30, Wigan 33 and Reading rock bottom(24).
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We haven't been doing reasonably well. We beat a very poor West Ham and an even worse Reading. If teams open us up as easily as Reading seemed to we'll get a beating. We did okay at Arsenal but again conceded late and were poor against a relatively poor Man City. As the pressure intensifies I think the less experienced players will crumble. if we win on Saturday I'll do the predictions again and will probably be a little more positive. As it is i've gone from 100% certain of relelgation to 90% after Saturday.
Well, I think we have, but that's just a difference of opinion. However, it still leaves us in the position where your prediction of 32 points represents a total collapse in form from both our recent games (12th in the form table) and our overall return since the season began.
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I have just done that BBC predictor for the first time. I had us, Southampton and Sunderland all staying up on 38. QPR going down with 36, Wigan 33 and Reading rock bottom.
I had very similar. I had Southampton(38), us(39) and Sunderland(40) all staying up. QPR going down with 30, Wigan 33 and Reading rock bottom(24).
I'd be really surprised if there is a five point gap between 17th and 18th at the end of the season.
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19th with 32 points for me.
Sadly this sounds about right.
With 27 points to play for you can only see us getting only another 5?
We should be good enough to take another 8 points based upon 0.9 points per game thus far.
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19th with 32 points for me.
Sadly this sounds about right.
With 27 points to play for you can only see us getting only another 5?
We should be good enough to take another 8 points based upon 0.9 points per game thus far.
8 points won't keep us up in my opinion, I believe if we get 38 we should just about survive, and I think we have every chance of achieving that.
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We have played well since the second half against Newcastle.
I think the suggestion that we will only get 5 more points is way off the mark.
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I hope we'll look back at that second half against Newcastle as a watershed moment.
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I have just done that BBC predictor for the first time. I had us, Southampton and Sunderland all staying up on 38. QPR going down with 36, Wigan 33 and Reading rock bottom.
Wigan have won 3 of heir last 4 games by more than 3 goals, i think they could finish stronger than many are predicting.
I had very similar. I had Southampton(38), us(39) and Sunderland(40) all staying up. QPR going down with 30, Wigan 33 and Reading rock bottom(24).
I'd be really surprised if there is a five point gap between 17th and 18th at the end of the season.
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We haven't been doing reasonably well. We beat a very poor West Ham and an even worse Reading. If teams open us up as easily as Reading seemed to we'll get a beating. We did okay at Arsenal but again conceded late and were poor against a relatively poor Man City. As the pressure intensifies I think the less experienced players will crumble. if we win on Saturday I'll do the predictions again and will probably be a little more positive. As it is i've gone from 100% certain of relelgation to 90% after Saturday.
Well, I think we have, but that's just a difference of opinion. However, it still leaves us in the position where your prediction of 32 points represents a total collapse in form from both our recent games (12th in the form table) and our overall return since the season began.
The lowest points-score for a team surviving relegation in the EPL is 34. So let's assume that this is an absolute baseline.
I don't think 35 points will be enough, because a few teams around are showing signs of going on a bit of run (even if others - like S'land and S'ton - are faltering).
I think that in order to generate real momentum we need to beat QPR - and doing so will hopefully take the fire out of their mini-revival as well. Winning on Saturday would lead to possible wins against Sunderland and Fulham at VP, and points against 'The Mighty Reds YNWA', Chelsea, Norwich, Wigan and Stoke: 41 points for the season and probable safety.
Not beating QPR would be likely to leave us needing to win at Norwich and Stoke at a minimum (since I think our home form will tank even further from its current poor state) and gaining more draws ... difficult to predict what will happen.
Even if Reading become stranded - which seems likely - they will still potentially take points off QPR, Fulham, S'ton and Norwich; all of which teams are potential R candidates.
If we keep Vlaar and Benteke fit (the former for his calming influence; the latter for his goals), and Westie, Sylla and Delph continue to develop and perform, we stand a chance of staying up. But it's all too fluid to predict.
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We haven't been doing reasonably well. We beat a very poor West Ham and an even worse Reading. If teams open us up as easily as Reading seemed to we'll get a beating. We did okay at Arsenal but again conceded late and were poor against a relatively poor Man City. As the pressure intensifies I think the less experienced players will crumble. if we win on Saturday I'll do the predictions again and will probably be a little more positive. As it is i've gone from 100% certain of relelgation to 90% after Saturday.
In the run in Sunderland, QPR, Fulham and Norwich are all more or less Reading or West Ham level.
Unless we lose to QPR and think it's christmas again we'll comfortably get more than 5 points in the run in.
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The simple answer to the title of this thread is no.
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The simple answer is yes (if three other teams end up with fewer points)
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The real answer is no-one knows at the moment.
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I think we need 38 points.
3 wins, 2 draws or equivalent.
If we can beat QPR, Fulham and Sunderland at home (realistically our best chances of wins), that would take us to 36
Then 2 points out of: Liverpool (H), Stoke, Norwich and Wigan (all A)
Anything out of Man U and Chelsea as a bonus.
Also just checked and the FA Cup Final is the week before the last Premier League game. Hopefully Wigan are in the Final, and get beaten in extra time, to make them knackered and dispirited for our game.
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When was the last time a team survived on 35? I can't see it this year, we need more.
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Suprised this is still being debated. No way will 35 points be enough. 38 minimum for me. But we might need 39 due to our inferior GD.
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Regardless of points, I'd say if we finish above QPR, we'll be safe. That's why saturdays game is a must-win.
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We need a minimum of three wins don't we? WIgan are always dangerous in this situation. QPR and Sunderland are the biggest games we have left.
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Regardless of points, I'd say if we finish above QPR, we'll be safe. That's why saturdays game is a must-win.
I think three wins and 2 draws will be enough giving us 38 - I also think both villa and qpr will stay up .
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We need a minimum of three wins don't we? WIgan are always dangerous in this situation. QPR and Sunderland are the biggest games we have left.
Fulham are never too clever on the road and usually lose at VP. Norwich shouldn't be feared either. I'd say I'm actually more confident for those two then I am for the QPR/Sunderland games.
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When was the last time a team survived on 35? I can't see it this year, we need more.
I believe West Ham survived with 34 in 09/10, bottom 3 didn't get above 30 points that year.
Last year QPR survived on 37 didn't they?
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I think we need 38 points.
3 wins, 2 draws or equivalent.
If we can beat QPR, Fulham and Sunderland at home (realistically our best chances of wins), that would take us to 36
Then 2 points out of: Liverpool (H), Stoke, Norwich and Wigan (all A)
Anything out of Man U and Chelsea as a bonus.
Also just checked and the FA Cup Final is the week before the last Premier League game. Hopefully Wigan are in the Final, and get beaten in extra time, to make them knackered and dispirited for our game.
Wigan would also have to play the league game they would've played on Cup final weekend during the following midweek.
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Wigan will have 3 games to rearrange if they reach the final.
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It's worth noting that because no team has been cut off that the points total to stay up will be lower than most seasons, it's just logic. You see, when a team is so shite it gets cut away everyone else takes points whereas a season like this one sees the bottom 10 taking points off each other meaning things are tighter and no one can pull away which is why there's hardly any points between the bottom and the top 10. Personally I think anything above 36 will give you a great chance.
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Wigan will have 3 games to rearrange if they reach the final.
And Coventry won 3 on the bounce in 198phhwwwerr to stay up when it was still okay to like them.
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I think 36 points will be enough to stay up we can get that moment.
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I have been having a look at our remaining games.
Trying to be objective and not letting my heart rule my head, I have come up with the following possible results:
Everton - draw
West Ham - Villa win
Arsenal - Villa loss
Man City - Villa loss
Reading - Villa win
QPR - Villa win
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - draw
Norwich - Villa loss
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa loss
This would leave us finishing our league campaign on 35 points. :'(
Is that enough?
6 out of 6, you should have done an accumulator.
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Shows we're not safe by a long way looking at his other predictions!
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Shows we're not safe by a long way looking at his other predictions!
Man Utd loss ! Give over.
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Shows we're not safe by a long way looking at his other predictions!
Yeah, I'm hoping that's the end of his good run though I think's he's bang on the money with the Fulham game...
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Shows we're not safe by a long way looking at his other predictions!
I have us down for an away win, either stoke or Norwich
1 point from last 5 games? Wouldn't think so
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We never in at Norwich in the league. Something like 30 years since we last did.
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We never in at Norwich in the league. Something like 30 years since we last did.
We beat them 2-1 in '93. Since then we've played them three times at Carrow Road in the League, drawing two and losing one. Not the worst record really.
Wigan away is one we should win. They've only beaten us once there, in their first Prem season. They win at Villa Park, we win at the DW. It's the way it always happens.
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The only remaining game I think we will definitely lose is at Old Trafford. No doubt we'll be assigned Dowd in that one, just to make sure of it.
We're capable of taking points in all of the other matches, but it'll still be tighter than a nun's chuff.
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36 or 37 would be enough but I want 40.
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The only remaining game I think we will definitely lose is at Old Trafford. No doubt we'll be assigned Dowd in that one, just to make sure of it.
We're capable of taking points in all of the other matches, but it'll still be tighter than a nun's chuff.
If that fat cheating ****** has to ref us in one more game this season, let it be that one. Hopefully they will let him take the penalties.
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We never in at Norwich in the league. Something like 30 years since we last did.
We beat them 2-1 in '93. Since then we've played them three times at Carrow Road in the League, drawing two and losing one. Not the worst record really.
Wigan away is one we should win. They've only beaten us once there, in their first Prem season. They win at Villa Park, we win at the DW. It's the way it always happens.
I was at that game and seem to recall best game i saw from Alex Cropley after that wanker Brown did him.
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Stoke are an appalling side. We have to be looking at taking something from there.
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Stoke are probably the worst team in the league.
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I have been having a look at our remaining games.
Trying to be objective and not letting my heart rule my head, I have come up with the following possible results:
Everton - draw
West Ham - Villa win
Arsenal - Villa loss
Man City - Villa loss
Reading - Villa win
QPR - Villa win
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - draw
Norwich - Villa loss
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa loss
This would leave us finishing our league campaign on 35 points. :'(
Is that enough?
6 out of 6, you should have done an accumulator.
I never bet on the Villa mate.
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The only remaining game I think we will definitely lose is at Old Trafford.
We play them with 5 games to go. It is possible they may have won the league mathematically the previous game.
Trophy presentation, party atmosphere etc..
Distractions? Foot off the pedal ?
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Shows we're not safe by a long way looking at his other predictions!
Well lets hope I'm way off the mark then!
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Yanited are well known for taking their foot off the gas when the title is won.
I want them in the FA Cup final and to win the league asap.
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We never in at Norwich in the league. Something like 30 years since we last did.
We beat them 2-1 in '93. Since then we've played them three times at Carrow Road in the League, drawing two and losing one. Not the worst record really.
Wigan away is one we should win. They've only beaten us once there, in their first Prem season. They win at Villa Park, we win at the DW. It's the way it always happens.
I was at that game and seem to recall best game i saw from Alex Cropley after that wanker Brown did him.
Alex Cropley had long retired by 1993, surely.
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i reckon 38 will do it. still could come down to last day though. a real pity Newcastle couldn't hold on for a point today as pressure could be back on in a fortnight against pool
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i reckon 38 will do it. still could come down to last day though. a real pity Newcastle couldn't hold on for a point today as pressure could be back on in a fortnight against pool
Agreed. We know what Wigan are like when they get their effing tails up. Sunderland collapsing might be our best hope of avoiding a last day decider with Wigan.
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31-Mar-13 H Liverpool fix 13.30
06-Apr-13 A Stoke City fix 15.00
13-Apr-13 H Fulham fix 15.00
22-Apr-13 A Manchester United fix 20.00
27-Apr-13 H Sunderland fix 15.00
04-May-13 A Norwich City fix 15.00
12-May-13 H Chelsea fix 15.00
19-May-13 A Wigan Athletic fix 16.00
With the newfound wind in our sails I think we can end up in mid-40's points wise.
Good luck lads!
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I'd go as far as too say 36 points could be enough...tight, but could be enough.
With us playing next Sunday (Sky Jinx), a win could be absolutely huge looking at the other teams games..
Sunderland v Man Utd
Arsenal v Reading
Man City v Newcastle
Saints v Chelsea
Everton v Stoke
Wigan v Norwich
Fulham v QPR
Stoke and Sunderland are right in the mix...and we have to play both.
We really don't want to visit Wigan last game needing something....
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We'll need more than 35, I would say 38-39 should be enough with our goal difference. I can't see Sunderland getting another point before they play us. Hopefully we will have 5 or 6 points in the bag before we play then & when we beat them that should give us the points to be safe.
Obviously, it never works out like that but we are in a much better position than we were 3 weeks ago.
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We never in at Norwich in the league. Something like 30 years since we last did.
We beat them 2-1 in '93. Since then we've played them three times at Carrow Road in the League, drawing two and losing one. Not the worst record really.
Wigan away is one we should win. They've only beaten us once there, in their first Prem season. They win at Villa Park, we win at the DW. It's the way it always happens.
I was at that game and seem to recall best game i saw from Alex Cropley after that wanker Brown did him.
Alex Cropley had long retired by 1993, surely.
I was at the game as well, think it was 79/80 season give or take a season.
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Rather than looking below us and worrying about Wigan, we should be looking at the teams above us and trying to surpass them. We do that and we won't have to worry about what is going on below us.
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Yeah agree. I don't buy the 'Wigan are guaranteed to go on an end of season run' stuff but there are at least 3 more likely teams to finish below us IMO, besides qpr and reading.
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I bet that the game at Old Trafford is the one they need to win to clinch the title.
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Probably, bastards.
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The way Wigans fixtures are panning out, they will again have 2 games in hand after we have played Fulham at home (they play Millwall in the cup) and there 2 games in hand will be:
Man City (A) - 17th April
Swansea (H) - 7th May
If they beat Millwall and get to the FA Cup Final then they will also most likely have a midweek fixture at Arsenal to contend with before playing us on the last game of the season.
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I bet that the game at Old Trafford is the one they need to win to clinch the title.
Citeh have to go to Old Trafford & Spurs before we play Man U. Hopefully they will have won the title by then & we have enough points to be safe.
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I bet that the game at Old Trafford is the one they need to win to clinch the title.
Shame that we'll beat the slags then innit?
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Dont think 35 will keep is up. Did the predictor thing and was being pessimistic and had us relegated but had southampton 9th lol. Reading are doomed, lots of other clubs in the mix, especially Sunderland, despite the gallant efforts of Foy and his lino. As for Halsey, what a disgrace
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35 points won't keep us up. But I actually think we're going to get around 40 points anyway, we'll be ok now.
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It'll be QPR, Reading and Sunderland.
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Paul Winch, I hope you are right. Sunderland were dire today even allowing for the ref and lino trying to win the game for them
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Current form table...
http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/form-guide.html
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Actually, if things continue the way thy are at present, we may even be able to secure safety by beating Sunderland. Now that would be a beautiful thing.
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I really do hope Sunderland go down and judging by their performance today, they are really in the brown stuff
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4 points from Stoke and Fulham and 4 points from Norwich and Sunderland and that's us safe I reckon. I think we'll get a draw off liverpool aswell.
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We'll get 40 points.
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I'm predicting:
18th Sunderland
19th QPR
20th Reading
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4 points from Stoke and Fulham and 4 points from Norwich and Sunderland and that's us safe I reckon. I think we'll get a draw off liverpool aswell.
I'd take that. A draw against Wigan on the final day to leave us on 40 points and about 14-16th...
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I've just done the predictor and we finish in 14th on 39pts. That includes us losing 2-1 at Wigan on the last day - which is a shame as the win keeps them up. I don't like Wigan as they offer very little to the league.
If I got to choose - QPR, Sunderland and Wigan would be relegated.
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I'm predicting:
18th Sunderland
19th QPR
20th Reading
perhaps MON wants to get a team relegated like old big 'ead
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Redknapp and O'Neill relegated - that would be t'riffic. The media would be gutted.
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Redknapp and O'Neill relegated - that would be t'riffic. The media would be gutted.
MON will never be relegated. He will walk out before then. (In my opinion).
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Yeah agree. I don't buy the 'Wigan are guaranteed to go on an end of season run' stuff but there are at least 3 more likely teams to finish below us IMO, besides qpr and reading.
I hope they suffer relegation and the honour of being walloped 9-0 in the final. Cnuts.
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If we are safe before the final day, I wouldn't give a flying fcuk what happens at the DW. I'll be too pissed to notice anyway.
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The whole bottom half of the table is at risk. Probably only Reading are definitely down. Don't write QPR off yet, they have lots to do but probably the easiest fixtures of anyone. Like everyone else I relish Sunderland dropping into it but don't rule out West Ham , Norwich or Stoke being in the frame either - all are in poor form at the wrong time. A point next week against the scousers is very important to maintain momentum.
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Reading are about 20-1 on to go down. QPR 5 or 6 to 1 on. Wigan are evens and we are between 7-4 and 2-1 against. Sunderland 4-1 are the next shortest price.
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Reading are about 20-1 on to go down. QPR 5 or 6 to 1 on. Wigan are evens and we are between 7-4 and 2-1 against. Sunderland 4-1 are the next shortest price.
Probably back in this thread somewhere, but weren't sunderland something like 25-1 just a few weeks back?
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Must say that late Wigan goal has worried me a little bit.
Without it Wigan would've been 5 points off us with their game in hand being Man. City away.
Now if they beat Norwich at home in their next game they'll go above us for at least a day and incredibly despite winning our two "six pointers" we'll be back in the bottom 3!
Just worry that might deflate our players a little bit just when we've got some momentum finally to the season.
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I fancy Norwich to get a draw. I can see them grinding their way to safety with a lot of draws as we did.
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Norwich are decent. I quite like Hughton.
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I fancy Norwich to get a draw. I can see them grinding their way to safety with a lot of draws as we did.
Well Wigan had a months worth of luck yesterday so if there is any justice they will lose.
We need to just think about the 3 wins we need and sod the other teams. Confident of beating Fulham and winning at either Stoke or Norwich so I reckon one more from somewhere
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I fancy Norwich to get a draw. I can see them grinding their way to safety with a lot of draws as we did.
Well Wigan had a months worth of luck yesterday so if there is any justice they will lose.
We need to just think about the 3 wins we need and sod the other teams. Confident of beating Fulham and winning at either Stoke or Norwich so I reckon one more from somewhere
It's up to the coaching staff to stress that if we do re-enter the bottom three, it's only relevant if we're still there at six o'clock on 19th May.
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The whole bottom half of the table is at risk. Probably only Reading are definitely down. Don't write QPR off yet, they have lots to do but probably the easiest fixtures of anyone. Like everyone else I relish Sunderland dropping into it but don't rule out West Ham , Norwich or Stoke being in the frame either - all are in poor form at the wrong time. A point next week against the scousers is very important to maintain momentum.
West Ham are, I think, safe now. They might lose one or two on the bounce and struggle to score occasionally, but I'd say they have at least two more victories in them.
Stoke are definitely involved.
There seems to be a groundswell of ill feeling against Pulis from his own support now. As limited and agricultural as their approach might be, they used to create chances. When you're not even doing that anymore, it must be hard to stomach such turgid football. They've spent quite a bit since being in the topflight too, something often overlooked.
Another win or two *should* see them safe, but their form since the turn of the year has been atrocious.
We have four more potential six pointers, IMO. Sunderland and Wigan being the obvious ones, but we have the capability to make life even worse for Naawich and Stoke too.
I'd say it's between worselves, Wigwam, Sunderland, Southampton, Norwich and Stoke for the last place. MON is taking pelters from his own supporters too, at present. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him pull off a shock result against Man U or Chelsea.
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I looked at historic league tables, and the 17th placed team finished on the following points over the last ten years:
37 / 40 / 35 / 35* / 36 / 38 / 38* / 34 / 39* / 44 (37.2 average)
Most of the time, teams have stayed up by 1 point or on goal difference. * shows where it was more comfortable.
So 40 points seems like it would definitely be safe. I'd be very pessimistic if I thought we were going to get anything less than 38.
So, 8-10 points more? Or 2-3 wins and some draws on top.
Who will those 2-3 wins come against? It's hard to be super confident about any game with this villa side.
I reckon we've good a reasonable chance (say 40-60%) of beating Sunderland, Norwich, Stoke and Fulham on any given day. I reckon we'll win at least one of them. But I think we probably need to win two and draw at least one of these games as a minimum to avoid a horrific experience on the last day of the season. I predict we'll beat Sunderland and I fancy us to win at Stoke. But draw or lose to Fulham and get a draw at Norwich.
I can't really see more than a point at most from our games against Liverpool, Chelsea and Man U unless there's a major surprise. They're all playing for things. Liverpool offers the best chance.
.
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We've just taken 10 points from our last six games. The next six as a group are if anything easier fixtures.
I know these things never work out that way, but where we are at the moment, buoyant and in our best form of the season, we are just as likely to take more than 10 from the next six as less.
Away : Everton, Arsenal, Reading (next up : Stoke, Manu and Norwich)
Home : West ham, Newcastle, QPR (next up : L'pool, Fulham, S'land)
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We'll smash Stoke.
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True. I see we're 5th in the form table over the last 6 games. But we've been here before before completely falling apart around Christmas.
Of the teams currently above 15th, we've only managed two league wins all season (swansea and Liverpool). The other wins have come against reading, QPR, West Ham at home, plus sunderland and reading away.
Of our remaining fixtures, only Sunderland and Wigan are bottom 6 sides. Though you could argue Stoke are there in form terms and Norwich aren't far off.
The more I think about it, the more nervous I get!
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We've just taken 10 points from our last six games. The next six as a group are if anything easier fixtures.
I know these things never work out that way, but where we are at the moment, buoyant and in our best form of the season, we are just as likely to take more than 10 from the next six as less.
Away : Everton, Arsenal, Reading (next up : Stoke, Manu and Norwich)
Home : West ham, Newcastle, QPR (next up : L'pool, Fulham, S'land)
I don't agree the next 6 games are easier. Before the previous 6, I'd have said West Ham, Reading and QPR looked very winnable. We normally draw at Goodison. I hoped we'd get a draw at least v Newcastle and you obviously expect to lose at the Emirates, but we often get a good result there.
The next 6 - I think Man U is a write off. I'm not sure any are of the 'expect to win' variety. I think Liverpool and Fulham, given recent good form for the most part, are very tough matches.
We're definitely capable of winning at Stoke or Norwich. We've scored at least two away goals in most of our recent away matches (4 out of the last 5 I think). And those sides struggle to score. So I'm quietly optimistic about both matches. But they're both eminently losable too. I wouldn't say I was counting on winning these ones.
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The last 6 were Everton (a) WH (h) Arse (a) Man C (h) Reading (a) QPR (h). I think 10 points from that lot would be more than respectable even if we were a lot higher in the league.
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We are hitting form at exactly the right time, unlike the Stokes, Mackems, Spammers of this world. I know which group I'd rather be in.
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If we right off the games against Man Utd and Chelski, then we realistically need to be getting at least 4pts from the next 3 games and 4pts from Sunderland, Norwich and Wigan...it really could go down to the wire with several teams trying to avoid relegation on the last day of the season.
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If you take Reading and QPR as gonnas, then the last place will be one of about 5 teams - all of which a pretty capable of picking up points. I think we are looking the pick of those teams at the moment and will stay up. But I think the magic number will be 39 points.
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The key is how we do against Sunderland. We are on paper the easier of their upcoming fixtures, another 6 pointer in the offing I feel.
Having said that, a lot depends on how Wigan fare in the cup should they reach the final and how their players approach league games nearing a possible final. It could be awkard for them.
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By the time we play Sunderland, chances are that we will be above them, with them on the back of several beatings.
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The key isn't how we play against anybody but the next game. We have to play the team and not the occasion. liverpool will be an important ganme because its how we perform that will be important. We could start and end the game in the bottom 3 and if we start allowing the rpessure to get to us then we'll see more poor performances. Although the 2 nd half was good against QPR we were poor for most of the first half, very poor after they equalised and then it was backs to the wall.
This is going to be every game where we have our noses in front and it is a huge ask to expect the level of performance in the 2nd half to be produced week in week out when the pressure is on. Simply, I don't think we're good enough to do that. So, its going to be fingerbitingly bad. I feel it won't even go to the Wigan game.
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By the time we play Sunderland, chances are that we will be above them, with them on the back of several beatings.
Maybe so but they will look at our fixture as where they have a good chance of getting a result. They might well be shot by then but if they are targeting 7 or 8 more points to beat the drop our game will be seen as crucial in getting them.
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They will definitely be targetting us, but then they would have targetted Norwich, QPR and Reading too.
I think if they get a good kicking in their next three, then they will be in huge trouble, with confidence completely gone.
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I think West Ham, Stoke, Southampton & Sunderland will be the ones who will be battling with us. Fulham, Newcastle & Norwich have enough in them to survive imo.
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One will but I think a couple out of WHAM, Stoke, and Sunderland will win 2 games or so to get themselves moving again. our position means that that is all it takes to put us back up against it.
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One will but I think a couple out of WHAM, Stoke, and Sunderland will win 2 games or so to get themselves moving again. our position means that that is all it takes to put us back up against it.
peter, you had us down last week to only get 5 points from a remaining 27. We've got 3 of those already. Even in your most pessimistic of hearts do you not think we can get another win or two and a couple of draws from the remaining 24?
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Peter, have you seen the "highlights" of Stoke and Sunderlands last ten games? They have ugly runs coming up, and one team defends quite well, but is bereft of ideas going forwards. The other one, if memory serves only won their first two games of the season against ten men, and cant even beat ten men now. I think Wet Spam can get the points, I think the other two could well be right in the dark and stinky stuff over the next few weeks.
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Sunderland does seem a key game. If we can put some daylight between us and them before that, we could go into the game in a really strong comparative position. I'd take 6 points from the next four games I think, putting us on 36. I reckon they may still be stuck on about 31-33 at that point.
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One will but I think a couple out of WHAM, Stoke, and Sunderland will win 2 games or so to get themselves moving again. our position means that that is all it takes to put us back up against it.
peter, you had us down last week to only get 5 points from a remaining 27. We've got 3 of those already. Even in your most pessimistic of hearts do you not think we can get another win or two and a couple of draws from the remaining 24?
We could. we could also only get two more points. Or 5. Or 7. With our goal difference it won't be enough.
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Bloody hell Peter W I thought I was pessimistic! I'd lock the knife drawers if I were you
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At absolute most goal difference can be worth one additional point in effect. So it doesn't make any sense to assume this will be the thing that sends us down. It clearly doesn't help of course.
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Bloody hell Peter W I thought I was pessimistic! I'd lock the knife drawers if I were you
In 30 games we've beaten Reading twice, QPR, West Ham, Swansea, Sunderland, and Liverpool. A couple of good performances. We shipped 8 atChelsea, 5 at ManCity, thumped by Tottenham at home and Wigan, thrown away two goal leads against WBA, Everton, and Man U, and we always concede. You know if a result starts with Aston Villa 1 you know that we'll have drawn at best. We've won 3 in 6 which is cause for optimism, but in every game we've conceded. All poorly defended goals.
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I'm getting a bit obsessed with the bbc predictor!
I did it as objectively as possible based on current home and away form. On that basis, it works out very tight indeed for us. I had us going into the last game of the season in 18th place, and staying up by the skin of our teeth with a draw at Wigan as Sunderland lose at spurs.
Clearly results are never that predictable. That assumes Sunderland and stoke in particular continue their abysmal form. And for villa it meant drawing most of our away games, beating Sunderland only, and losing against the big 3 sides.
I still think it will probably come down to whether we can get at least 7 points from the stoke, norwich, Fulham and Sunderland games; or a massive game at Wigan on the last day
The most promising signs for us are 3 wins out of 5 and the fact we've averaged two goals per game in our away games since Xmas. There's only the arsenal game we haven't managed that.
You'd have to hope that we could nick a win at either norwich or stoke. Both are really struggling to score.
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If you base it off current form then we finish 14th on 43 points.
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43 points for us
sunderland 37
west ham 37
wigan 37
qpr 33
reading 27
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I think Sunderland will do well to get six points given their form and fixtures.
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16th - Villa 39
17th - Sunderland 36
18th - QPR - 30
19th - Wigan - 30
20th - Reading 24
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Watching the Sunderland Norwich game gave me a lot of hope. They look like 2 teams who have ran out of ideas and are just stumbling towards the end line, hoping they will have enough points. I haven't seen Stoke of late, but it seems they are quite similar.
We on the other hand seem to have found a settled enough team that is scoring goals and don't look as much if a shambles defensively, as a few weeks ago. I have to say Vlaar's presence has been crucial for me. While he is a step down from the legends we have been accustomed to over the last 20 years at Centre Back, I think the players around him play with more confidence and we seem a lot more solid. We don't look like we are going to concede from every corner anymore. There is still a long way to go before they are anything like a defensive unit you could be happy with, but if you cut out the individual errors (Baker o.g.), we should be able to score more than we will concede in most of our remaining games.
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I think that the return of Delph will also be a great boost; whilst Bannan/Sylla have done well in the past two games, Delph's mobility and tackling will come in very useful in the upcoming games.
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Stoke have apparently failed to score in 13 of their previous 30 home games.
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Stoke and Sunderland for me are in more danger than Wigan at moment.Newcastle I think have not kicked on as I expected with new signings and Collocini a big miss for them.See it going down to the wire.Only Reading looked doomed at moment QPR got enough talent to survive..would love to see them go though
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Newcastle's poor away form is what appears to keep them hanging around down the bottom. If they draw a few more at home, then they could slip into the mess big time.
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Stoke have apparently failed to score in 13 of their previous 30 home games.
Time to lump on a) them scoring against us and b) Owen scoring his last ever goal in the same game. t's the Villa way!
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Stoke have apparently failed to score in 13 of their previous 30 home games.
Time to lump on a) them scoring against us and b) Owen scoring his last ever goal in the same game. t's the Villa way!
Remarkably, just seen a stat in the paper that Robbie Keane has something like 80 more Premier League goals than Michael Owen in a similar number of appearances!
Can't bloody find the link but I read it this morning.
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Poyet apparently off to Reading could give them a lift going into the last 8 games , think overall they lack quality in squad so will still go down
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Poyet apparently off to Reading could give them a lift going into the last 8 games , think overall they lack quality in squad so will still go down
Really? I'd be surprised if he went there, can see him getting better jobs than reading and especially at a time when reading look down and brighton are chasing the play offs.
Very surprised at this news- maybe he's been made an offer he can't refuse .
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Poyet apparently off to Reading could give them a lift going into the last 8 games , think overall they lack quality in squad so will still go down
I don't know why the changed to 4-4-2 when 4-3-3 with Le Fondre coming on as a super sub was working for them.
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Going to be an interesting last three games.....Sunderland's final two home games are against Stoke and Southampton.
Now I reckon even Peter W can't present a theory where Sunderland, Stoke and Saints all get 3 points from those two games.
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Going to be an interesting last three games.....Sunderland's final two home games are against Stoke and Southampton.
Now I reckon even Peter W can't present a theory where Sunderland, Stoke and Saints all get 3 points from those two games.
"And just to keep it interesting, we'll ave a shilling on the side"
(http://www.modernmedicaldictionary.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/russian_roulette-e1360948815947.jpg)
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Going to be an interesting last three games.....Sunderland's final two home games are against Stoke and Southampton.
Now I reckon even Peter W can't present a theory where Sunderland, Stoke and Saints all get 3 points from those two games.
When Sunderland lose against Stoke Southampton win their game. They then beat Southampton. At the same time Stoke get beaten. So, over the two weeks that you mention Sunderland, Southampton, and Stoke all get 3 points.
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He said from those two games. You cannot have nine points when only six are available.
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Going to be an interesting last three games.....Sunderland's final two home games are against Stoke and Southampton.
Now I reckon even Peter W can't present a theory where Sunderland, Stoke and Saints all get 3 points from those two games.
When Sunderland lose against Stoke Southampton win their game. They then beat Southampton. At the same time Stoke get beaten. So, over the two weeks that you mention Sunderland, Southampton, and Stoke all get 3 points.
Reminds me of..
http://cli.ps/F8HW2
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Going to be an interesting last three games.....Sunderland's final two home games are against Stoke and Southampton.
Now I reckon even Peter W can't present a theory where Sunderland, Stoke and Saints all get 3 points from those two games.
My fear is that stoke and Southampton will be just about safe by that point with little to play for. And both have pretty terrible away form anyway. I think those two games could be sunderland's saviour. Big pressure though potentially!
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Going to be an interesting last three games.....Sunderland's final two home games are against Stoke and Southampton.
Now I reckon even Peter W can't present a theory where Sunderland, Stoke and Saints all get 3 points from those two games.
When Sunderland lose against Stoke Southampton win their game. They then beat Southampton. At the same time Stoke get beaten. So, over the two weeks that you mention Sunderland, Southampton, and Stoke all get 3 points.
Southampton are only playing Sunderland in that formula.
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This is about Sunderland and their two games.
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So Southampton pointless and remain in deep trouble then?
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I think it will go down to the last game for us, even if we go on a good run. I think we'd need to have 40 points (or close to that) going into that game to be safe before it starts.
That's 10 points from 7 games, which seems doable. But I can't see too many points from Chelsea and Man U, so it seems a bit unlikely to me.
My best bet would be 7-9 points from those 7 games.
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Looks like the fulham and Sunderland home games are must win for us and then hopefully get something out of stoke and norwich away and Wigan.
Anything against liverpool Utd or Chelsea is a bonus .
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I think we are more than capable of beating Liverpool agqin.
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If we can, it would be a massive 3 points.
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No, Southampton aren't pointless SHQ. When Sunderland play and lose against Stoke, Southampton win their game against whoever.
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No, Southampton aren't pointless SHQ. When Sunderland play and lose against Stoke, Southampton win their game against whoever.
Cool. That's Spurs away actually.
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No, Southampton aren't pointless SHQ. When Sunderland play and lose against Stoke, Southampton win their game against whoever.
Cool. That's Spurs away actually.
Bale own goal. 72 mins.
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Gotta love predictive threads. Especially page one. Well we have 30 points and we also have 8 games to go. What we also have is some sense of confidence that we can win games. Tight games. Hotly contested games.
My personal prediction has us reach 41 points - and that is a fairly pessimistic forecast. We can beat anyone - but sadly - we can also lose to anyone - and I mean - ANYONE. But recent form and the growing understanding in the team leads me to feel that it is not us who should be worried about the trapdoor - it is Sunderland.
And wouldn't that put a nice silver lining on a difficult season - the one time messiah - getting his just desserts - as an all time judas.
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Cattermole and Fletcher being out for the season has made Sunderland's chances of getting 35 points that little bit harder.
Yanited could really do us a favour on the weekend if they beat them and give them a good smacking at the same time.
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Sunderland can get to 35 points but that will not be anywhere near enough to stay up in my opinion - i think 38 minimum will be needed and i don't see sunderland reaching that.
United will be pumped up for this game after the way sunderland celebrated uniteds demise last game of the season last year.
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Gotta love predictive threads. Especially page one. Well we have 30 points and we also have 8 games to go.
When you see it out like that, the situation looks considerably better.
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The most worrying thing is that the original predicitions for the results are bang on at the moment.
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The most worrying thing is that the original predicitions for the results are bang on at the moment.
Don't worry, I have only got the Everton game wrong so far and I have us down for 40 plus points.
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And the original post had us getting 1 point from the final 15 available which seems very pessimistic.
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And the original post had us getting 1 point from the final 15 available which seems very pessimistic.
I suppose its very easy to say this after the fact.
The truth is when I made these predictions, even the most diehard villans amongst us must have been feeling pessimistic. I more than anyone hope that we achieve more than 1 point from our last 5 games.
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4 points from Norwich and Sunderland and 4 from Stoke and Fulham would keep us up imo. I reckon we could lose the other 4 games and stay up.
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I agree. 9 would be better though. I do want those 8-9 points before heading up to Wigan though!
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9 from the next 3 should do it.
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4-4-2's take on it.
http://fourfourtwo.com/blogs/fourfourtwoview/archive/2013/03/28/premier-league-prediction-2012-13.aspx
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the worrying thing about that is that we are one game away from being relegated, such being our inferior goal difference. I really hope that 8-0 drubbing by Chelsea doesn't define our season ..
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These are the next four predictions.
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Who would take them now if given the chance. I would be tempted.
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These are the next four predictions.
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Who would take them now if given the chance. I would be tempted.
I think we can and will get more than 4 points from these games 2 home wins , draw at stoke.
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4-4-2's take on it.
http://fourfourtwo.com/blogs/fourfourtwoview/archive/2013/03/28/premier-league-prediction-2012-13.aspx
Well, they certainly melo-dramatise it, but if we can continue our recent cautious recovery profile they have probably got it about right for us. Sunday is a massive game for us. Take something from it and our fortunes look favourable; take a pounding or wimpish defeat and we're right back in it. Statement of the bleedin' obvious I know, but ....
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4-4-2's take on it.
http://fourfourtwo.com/blogs/fourfourtwoview/archive/2013/03/28/premier-league-prediction-2012-13.aspx
Well, they certainly melo-dramatise it, but if we can continue our recent cautious recovery profile they have probably got it about right for us. Sunday is a massive game for us. Take something from it and our fortunes look favourable; take a pounding or wimpish defeat and we're right back in it. Statement of the bleedin' obvious I know, but ....
I agree. I have gone through it and it is a pretty plausible outcome. And probably a (pragmatic) dream outcome from top to bottom for most of us.
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If by some wonder we can win this weekend I think we will do it fairly comfortably. Lose and it will be touch and go till Wigan in a straight shootout. Which I would back us to win still.
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I've noticed this week that there have been one or two digs at us regarding having the cheek to play a guy who scores goals in Benteke. It's all pretty snidey - e.g. goals by Christian Benteke (again) or the crap gallery on the Guardian site - but now we're in a bit of form it's almost as if we've got to be criticised for not doing it in exactly the right way.
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Why's it any different to Fletcher and Sunderland or Wigan and Arouna Kone?
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I think we are more likely to beat Stoke than either Fulham or Liverpool. If West Ham can win their, then Christ, anybody can.
There form over the past twelve months is as bad as ours.
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When was the last time Fulham won at VP in the league?
I know they won at Spurs last time out but their away form is generally toss so that's a game I expect us to win.
3 points there and draws with Liverpool and Stoke, I'd take that all day long.
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Why's it any different to Fletcher and Sunderland or Wigan and Arouna Kone?
Or Suarez at Liverpool, Van Persie (in the early part of the season) at United or Flukaku at the Bitters. That's what you buy strikers for. Besides which, all of our strikers have healthy scoring form this season, so this sudden theory that it's Benteke keeping us up and nobody else is ignorant.
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It's funny but I thought Benny was our quietest forward against QPR but popped up with the winner.
Could be argued Weimann and Gabby have been playing better recently.
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I think the 3 compliment each other well actually. Weimann gets his head up, plays people in and also scores a fair few, Gabby stretches the flanks and Benteke, well, does what Benteke does.
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The funny thing is that even though points of the season have been cringe-making, there are at least three candidates for player of the season for me.
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I've noticed this week that there have been one or two digs at us regarding having the cheek to play a guy who scores goals in Benteke. It's all pretty snidey - e.g. goals by Christian Benteke (again) or the crap gallery on the Guardian site - but now we're in a bit of form it's almost as if we've got to be criticised for not doing it in exactly the right way.
And probably from the same people who a few weeks ago were slating us for playing Benteke instead of Bent.
How dare we have the cheek to play a striker who scores goals.
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The funny thing is that even though points of the season have been cringe-making, there are at least three candidates for player of the season for me.
I know I will look back fondly on this season. I won't look back fondly on last season. There have been a lot of positives this year (with some absolute horror shows thrown in).
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For anyone who does gets the season review DVD, just make sure you fastforward quickly straight after Liverpool until you hit March.
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Not really interested about the press and their opinions. We know that our last 5 goals at least were well constructed, well taken goals. Whatever else they say shows that they're not watching us. Criticise the other end of the park maybe, but the front-line right now? Nah.
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To respond to the first question: I don't think 35 points will be anything like enough. I think we'll need around 40 to be confident. We need to play to win all out games, but I suspect it will come down to Fulham, stoke, norwich and above all Sunderland. 8 points or more from those and I think we'll be ok, especially if it includes beating Sunderland. But none of them is a gimme by any means.
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Looks like all the teams in the bottom half will pick up points and the third relegated team will do so with a points tally that would have kept them safe in other years. We play most of the sides down there so we have it our own hands. Someone like Sunderland's going to have real problems. Even if they pick up the odd surprise result, their fixture list is still tough enough that it's going to be struggle for them to stay above the other sides down there that have better fixtures.
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I reckon Sunderland will get 5 more points in the run in.....draw with Everton and 4 points from Stoke and Souhampton. If we beat them we'll be o.k.
Mind you they've got Chelsea next who no doubt will donate them their annual relegation points gift.
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I reckon Sunderland will get 5 more points in the run in.....draw with Everton and 4 points from Stoke and Souhampton. If we beat them we'll be o.k.
Mind you they've got Chelsea next who no doubt will donate them their annual relegation points gift.
Chelsea need results as arsenal are right on their heels for top 4 - they should beat sunderland - I can see why they rested many today as they have a big game on Monday against utd.
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An interesting stat I heard on SSN today was that Chelski have played 53 games compared to 34 for Southampton. Their game against Utd is arguably more important but the higher placed teams resting players at the business end of the PL really doesnt do us any favours in our situation.
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Anyone finishing the season on 35 points or less will go down. I agreed with Redknapp's 37 minimum a couple of weeks ago but it is a minimum 38 for me now. I am looking at beating Fulham and Sunderland at VP and getting anything we can from the other games. Today went mostly as expected, Sunderland and Reading lost, Wigan got something (shame it was all three points), disappointing that Southampton won but they haven't looked like a side that will go down recently so I'm not totally shocked. Looking at the table today, Newcastle look in danger again now.
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37 points will put you above Sunderland, QPR and Reading.
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37 points will put you above Sunderland, QPR and Reading.
Not if sunderland beat stoke and saints at home - i think 38 , maybe 39 to be sure.
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37 points will put you above Sunderland, QPR and Reading.
Not if sunderland beat stoke and saints at home - i think 38 , maybe 39 to be sure.
But to do that, Sunderland need to score a goal, something they seem incapable of doing. One shot on target today says it all.
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I expect us to beat Norwich away.
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Looking at our points won at home and those away I am wondering if any team has won as close to as many away as at home as us. I am still looking at the home games against Fulham and Sunderland as our best chance but hoping Stoke and Norwich away will be good days for us. I don't even want to think about Wigan. I am hoping we will be safe by then.
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I've just looked at Wigan's run in. I think they'll do well to get another 5 points
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With 12 games to go - I thought we would need 4 wins and 4 draws and allow for 4 defeats.
We have 2 wins and 2 defeats so far - so another 2 wins and 4 draws would give us 40 points which should be enough.
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I've just looked at Wigan's run in. I think they'll do well to get another 5 points
For me reading and sunderland look the two most likely to drop, I think we have a better chance than wigan and qpr of survival and think it will be one of those 2 who go as well.
If pushed I'd say reading, sunderland and Wigan will go .
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With 12 games to go - I thought we would need 4 wins and 4 draws and allow for 4 defeats.
We have 2 wins and 2 defeats so far - so another 2 wins and 4 draws would give us 40 points which should be enough.
And if we can't get them from our remaining games we don't deserve to stay up.
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With 12 games to go - I thought we would need 4 wins and 4 draws and allow for 4 defeats.
We have 2 wins and 2 defeats so far - so another 2 wins and 4 draws would give us 40 points which should be enough.
And if we can't get them from our remaining games we don't deserve to stay up.
I think we can get 3 wins in the remaining games, but do echo your comment.
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Chelsea need results as arsenal are right on their heels for top 4 - they should beat sunderland - I can see why they rested many today as they have a big game on Monday against utd.
Much as I hate Spurs and Man Utd, I hope both North London clubs pip them for top four and them losing the QF.
Bloody club with no history.
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I can't decide if the MON sacking is good or bad news for us. Hopefully they don't get that initial fillip. I wonder who it will be replacing him?
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There run in is very difficult and its harder now for them without Fletcher. I think they will have dome very well to get to 38 points.
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Ads, I agree and though I dont think Cattermole is a top player, he gives their midfield energy and tenacity and he will be missed as well.
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I've just looked at Wigan's run in. I think they'll do well to get another 5 points
I looked at the fixtures this morning and concluded that they have a fair few easy points. I hope you are correct
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So many games to come where teams in the bottom 8 play each other - it really could go right down to the last day but i think we should be able to pull clear .
I had written off reading and sunderland but mons sacking may just give them a glimmer of hope now - really need qpr to lose at Fulham tomorrow .
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Stay up with 35 points ?
The way things are going the title of this thread will soon be mathematically impossible.
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I've just looked at Wigan's run in. I think they'll do well to get another 5 points
I looked at the fixtures this morning and concluded that they have a fair few easy points. I hope you are correct
No points are easy in this league. But I agree Wigan seem to have the easier run in. However, despite the Wigan revival hype, I don't think they are playing well, and have been a bit lucky over the last few games.
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Very incisive analysis by Martinez yesterday stating that many clubs involved look like putting good results together so 35 points will not do it.
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annoying that we beat reading and qpr but still find ourselves in the bottom 3. big test now - 4 points from next 2 and we'll be back in track
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35 points will be nowhere near enough; I'd say 39 will just about keep you up so still plenty of teams in the mix
We need 3 more wins or 2 wins and 3 draws from the last 7 games to achieve this; anyone out there willing to back us to do it? It really is going to be a stressful last few weeks of the season!
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Based on recent results 35 points will be enough to keep Reading and QPR below us however 38/39 will be required to avoid relegation.
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We need at least 39.
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Us and Wigan have made a game of it really. Anyone from Southampton down are in the mire currently for the last place. 38 points i'd say.
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As I've mentioned on other threads, one thing I haven't considered but could happen....say Wigan beat QPR and WBA away and Swansea at home. 39 points and safe before the last game imo.
So suddenly the last day becomes a dead game for them. That's surely got to be beneficial for us rather than say going to Spurs on the last day who'll probably still need 3 points to get in the top 4. And that's what Sunderland have got.
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As I've mentioned on other threads, one thing I haven't considered but could happen....say Wigan beat QPR and WBA away and Swansea at home. 39 points and safe before the last game imo.
So suddenly the last day becomes a dead game for them. That's surely got to be beneficial for us rather than say going to Spurs on the last day who'll probably still need 3 points to get in the top 4. And that's what Sunderland have got.
So you're hoping that Wigan's run continues so that they roll over on last day of season? Has it really come to this?
The next two games provide an opportunity to really put the teams around us under pressure, including Wigan who will be playing after us on both occassions, and with an FA cup semi/final to think about. If we beat Stoke they are deep in it as well.
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As I've said on other posts, we've lost a little of the control on our future as a result of losing today but my concern is not with Wigan and S'ton. They have the forward momentum and will almost certainly survive. The other teams in the "drop frame" are Blunderland, Stoke, Barcodes and Norwich; three of whom we play.
It's quite clear to me that we need 7 from the nine points on offer against these three teams and 2-3 points from the 4 other games.
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I have said it before SHQ that the final game will be a dead rubber.
I could see the scenario for Wigan playing out as you say, but I can also see us taking 10 from Stoke, Fulham, Sunderland and Norwich.
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As I've mentioned on other threads, one thing I haven't considered but could happen....say Wigan beat QPR and WBA away and Swansea at home. 39 points and safe before the last game imo.
So suddenly the last day becomes a dead game for them. That's surely got to be beneficial for us rather than say going to Spurs on the last day who'll probably still need 3 points to get in the top 4. And that's what Sunderland have got.
So you're hoping that Wigan's run continues so that they roll over on last day of season? Has it really come to this?
The next two games provide an opportunity to really put the teams around us under pressure, including Wigan who will be playing after us on both occassions, and with an FA cup semi/final to think about. If we beat Stoke they are deep in it as well.
I'd rather play them when they're safe and have played a cup final a week previously than with them having to win to leapfrog us yes.
To me this could be a bit like 10/11. On that final day Wigan went to Stoke who had won 10 at home that year but had just lost the cup final and had nothing to play in the league. Wigan won 1-0 and SHA lost 2-1 at Spurs who needed the points for 5th so given Sunderland are there on the last day there are similarities.
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I have said it before SHQ that the final game will be a dead rubber.
I could see the scenario for Wigan playing out as you say, but I can also see us taking 10 from Stoke, Fulham, Sunderland and Norwich.
I think we need 10 from those.
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I really can't see Sunderland getting 9 points from their last 7.
I guess the Sunderland game will be similar to the Bolton game last season, we need to be ahead of them in the table pre kick off really looking at the fixtures coming up.
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I have said it before SHQ that the final game will be a dead rubber.
I could see the scenario for Wigan playing out as you say, but I can also see us taking 10 from Stoke, Fulham, Sunderland and Norwich.
I think we need 10 from those.
I think we'll need 8 and that's what we will get. Two wins at home and draws away.
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We've looked quite good away from home recently. I wouldn't rule out getting wins out of the Stoke, Norwich and Wigan games.
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Looking at other teams results Norwich /Stoke and Sunderland been very poor of late.All 3 don't score too many they have more draws than us which is why we are below them.I think to stay up we need to beat 2 out of three of them.
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If we can't get two wins and three draws from our remaining games we don't deserve to stay up.
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I expect 38pts will see a team relegated so with our goal difference we need minimum 39pts.
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If we can't get two wins and three draws from our remaining games we don't deserve to stay up.
Pretty much what I said before the Liverpool game. 8 games and 10 points needed for 40. If we failed to average just over a point a game with the fixtures we have left then we deserve to drop.
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To just go off topic a little, it looks like 50 points might not be enough for survival in the Championship.
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To just go off topic a little, it looks like 50 points might not be enough for survival in the Championship.
The Championship is a pretty entertaining league for neutrals - the quality obviously isnt as good as in the prem but its very competitive and before the season you could've named 10 teams with a good chance of promotion.
I'll enjoy watching it as a neutral next season too (because Villa will stay up on 40 points)
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If we can't get two wins and three draws from our remaining games we don't deserve to stay up.
Pretty much what I said before the Liverpool game. 8 games and 10 points needed for 40. If we failed to average just over a point a game with the fixtures we have left then we deserve to drop.
Absolutely.
People keep talking about 40 points, but bear in mind we are all down here because we are all not very good.
Look at Newcastle, we thought they would pull well out of it after January, but the fact is they are three points above us courtesy of us not having square goal posts.
Much like last night, a lot of teams will huff and puff. I think Stoke and Sunderland have terrible run ins, so it will be a lot tighter amongst five or six sides than people realise.
Obviously the quicker we’re up to 38+ the better.
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Lets beat Stoke, and drag them down with us.
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I am sure that 19 teams, given the choice, would choose Stoke to go down above anybody else. Lets do it for England Villa.
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I expect 38pts will see a team relegated so with our goal difference we need minimum 39pts.
I think 37 would keep us up.
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I expect 38pts will see a team relegated so with our goal difference we need minimum 39pts.
This.
Just been joking with kendrick because i told him 39 to stay up same as he was thinking , and now he's calling me either psychic or a stalker for reading his mind correctly yesterday :(
I did think 38 might keep us up but with our goal difference i think it may need 39 now.
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If we are vying with Wigan to stay up, our goal differences aren't that much different. A heavy defeat for them and a comfortable win for us, could see us having a better one.
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If we are vying with Wigan to stay up, our goal differences aren't that much different. A heavy defeat for them and a comfortable win for us, could see us having a better one.
After the Citeh and Arsenal defeats I remember saying the narrow nature of those losses could prove crucial. Same goes for Sunday. At least our recent defeats have been tight so we are clawing back the horrific goal difference we had accumulated over Christmas.
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If we are vying with Wigan to stay up, our goal differences aren't that much different. A heavy defeat for them and a comfortable win for us, could see us having a better one.
After the Citeh and Arsenal defeats I remember saying the narrow nature of those losses could prove crucial. Same goes for Sunday. At least our recent defeats have been tight so we are clawing back the horrific goal difference we had accumulated over Christmas.
Yes it's a pity we didnt shut up shop at Chelsea once we were 3-0 down rather than going for some crazy gung ho style.
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If we are vying with Wigan to stay up, our goal differences aren't that much different. A heavy defeat for them and a comfortable win for us, could see us having a better one.
I did the BBC predictor thing earlier and had to save on 39 points and -27 GD, with Wigan relegated on 35 and -25. So, you could well be right!
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If we are vying with Wigan to stay up, our goal differences aren't that much different. A heavy defeat for them and a comfortable win for us, could see us having a better one.
I did the BBC predictor thing earlier and had to save on 39 points and -27 GD, with Wigan relegated on 35 and -25. So, you could well be right!
What did you put for wigan v villa?
I think both will survive and sunderland will drop personally.
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If we are vying with Wigan to stay up, our goal differences aren't that much different. A heavy defeat for them and a comfortable win for us, could see us having a better one.
I did the BBC predictor thing earlier and had to save on 39 points and -27 GD, with Wigan relegated on 35 and -25. So, you could well be right!
What did you put for wigan v villa?
I think both will survive and sunderland will drop personally.
2-2 draw. Sunderland 17th on 36 points, so if I'm even close, Wigan beating us on the last day would put them down. Personally, now MON's gone I'd rather see Wigan go down than Sunderland*
*with the obvious proviso that aslong as we stay up, I'm not actually all that bothered!
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I think we need 40 points to be sure of being safe given the way the league is developing. 10 points from 7 games should be achievable.
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There's no way we can leave it til the last day to get what we need to stay up. I'd need gas and air at the DW. I'm bad enough now!!
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There's no way we can leave it til the last day to get what we need to stay up. I'd need gas and air at the DW. I'm bad enough now!!
More to the point, so would the players - I can't see our current set of players having the poise to withstand that sort of intensity.
The important games are against Stoke, Norwich and Sunderland because they're all in the drop zone. Get additional points against Fulham and Chelsea and we should be coasting. The last game at Wigan can then be carnival time.
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There's no way we can leave it til the last day to get what we need to stay up. I'd need gas and air at the DW. I'm bad enough now!!
More to the point, so would the players - I can't see our current set of players having the poise to withstand that sort of intensity.
The important games are against Stoke, Norwich and Sunderland because they're all in the drop zone. Get additional points against Fulham and Chelsea and we should be coasting. The last game at Wigan can then be carnival time.
Agree- i think the players would crack under pressure like that and I don't think I could take the pressure either - a day before i fly out in holiday so i would like us to be safe before the last game and relax .
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There's no way we can leave it til the last day to get what we need to stay up. I'd need gas and air at the DW. I'm bad enough now!!
More to the point, so would the players - I can't see our current set of players having the poise to withstand that sort of intensity.
The important games are against Stoke, Norwich and Sunderland because they're all in the drop zone. Get additional points against Fulham and Chelsea and we should be coasting. The last game at Wigan can then be carnival time.
Agree- i think the players would crack under pressure like that and I don't think I could take the pressure either - a day before i fly out in holiday so i would like us to be safe before the last game and relax.
...get blootered you mean? Amen to that
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We have a very good record at Wigan but wouldn't like to put it to the test this time around. Really fancy us to beat stoke but they could do what they did at villa and defend all day for a point. Fancy us to beat Fulham and hopefully Sunderland. Can't see us getting a thing from Chelsea, and forget the united game based on our results against the big boys this year. Can't see us losing at Norwich but I am a little worried it might be more draws than wins. So I am saying only 2 defeats but will we get those 3 wins?
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Two wins and two draws from our remaining games may be enough though I'd rather we didn't cut it that fine.
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Just done the bbc predictor and given myself a scare :(
I had 5 teams finishing on 38 points -sunderland, Norwich , wigan , stoke and villa and guess who went down on goal difference >:(
I had qpr on 33 and reading 30 .
This was based on a 2-1 defeat at wigan on the last day however , wins at stoke and over Fulham , and draws with sunderland and Norwich . Whatever happens i think it will be very close
Get to 39 points and i think we will be safe. .
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Depressed now. Also did the BBC predictor as objectively as I could. Had us going down on 36 points with QPR and Reading. Stoke and Sunderland above us on 37.
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I think we may forget Wigan. Sunderland are our best bet. Can anybody see them winning two more games?
One thing is clear, the board really need to make bloody sure we progress this summer. We have fallen too far too easily and if we don't take steps to stop it we will drop soon.
While I think our players will be much better next season, and have repeatedly said this, I am sure other teams around and above us will strengthen and we need to do the same. We need to regain a feel good factor and make Aston Villa a dynamic force again. We need to attract better players. We are too big to be just making up the numbers every year. We came mighty close to the drop last year and will do so again this season. It can't be allowed to become a trend.
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I think we may forget Wigan. Sunderland are our best bet. Can anybody see them winning two more games?
One thing is clear, the board really need to make bloody sure we progress this summer. We have fallen too far too easily and if we don't take steps to stop it we will drop soon.
While I think our players will be much better next season, and have repeatedly said this, I am sure other teams around and above us will strengthen and we need to do the same. We need to regain a feel good factor and make Aston Villa a dynamic force again. We need to attract better players. We are too big to be just making up the numbers every year. We came mighty close to the drop last year and will do so again this season. It can't be allowed to become a trend.
Can certainly see wigan winning at least 2 more games and sunderland will expect to beat stoke and southampton at home - will be a close run thing.
I think if we get to 39 points we will be fine.
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I did think 37, but would now like 39. With Fulham and Sunderland to come, I'd like to think there's 6 points there. I think we could scrape the rest together somewhere along the line.
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I think we need 3 wins..at the very least we can not lose to Sunderland Norwich and Wigan.
I think we may spring a surprise by beating Chelsea , only seem to get up for the big games and have played alot of football this year and some players looking jaded.
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I just did the predictor and had us 5 points clear of the bottom 3 by the time we play Wigan.
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I just did the predictor and had us 5 points clear of the bottom 3 by the time we play Wigan.
Crikey , what villa wins did you get? I got 2 wins and 2 draws but I was a bit strict.
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I only had us on 38 points. And I showed no bias towards other clubs results either. Hope i'm better at guessing results than I am guessing the crowd!
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I think we need 38 points.
3 wins, 2 draws or equivalent.
If we can beat QPR, Fulham and Sunderland at home (realistically our best chances of wins), that would take us to 36
Then 2 points out of: Liverpool (H), Stoke, Norwich and Wigan (all A)
Anything out of Man U and Chelsea as a bonus.
Also just checked and the FA Cup Final is the week before the last Premier League game. Hopefully Wigan are in the Final, and get beaten in extra time, to make them knackered and dispirited for our game.
Now 2 wins 2 draws I think.
Sunderland is a must win, and Fulham should be our next best chance.
Then 2 points from Stoke, Norwich or Wigan (all away).
So 8 points from 5 games - with anything from Man U (a) and Chelsea (h) a massive bonus.
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i thought a few weeks ago that 35 or maybe even less might be enough, but clearly that is going to be wrong,
although i dont think QPR or Reading will get 35 points, to avoid the 3rd place spot i reckon it will take 38 points as a minimum to be safe,
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40 points minimum I think. Anything below that and I think we're gone.
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I only had us on 38 points. And I showed no bias towards other clubs results either. Hope i'm better at guessing results than I am guessing the crowd!
Same as me , I had us on 38 but I had stoke, norwich wigan and sunderland all finish on 38 and us losing our last game at wigan 2-1
I don't think I could take the pressure of a last day decider :(
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The sickening thought for me is that I have this vision of other teams not slipping up, so even if we beat Stoke and Fulham, say, it would be matched and/or bettered over the seven games by the other teams around us.
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The sickening thought for me is that I have this vision of other teams not slipping up, so even if we beat Stoke and Fulham, say, it would be matched and/or bettered over the seven games by the other teams around us.
There are an awful lot of games though between the bottom 8 where they play each other so someone must drop points.
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The sickening thought for me is that I have this vision of other teams not slipping up, so even if we beat Stoke and Fulham, say, it would be matched and/or bettered over the seven games by the other teams around us.
There are an awful lot of games though between the bottom 8 where they play each other so someone must drop points.
Though what you say is logical, the irrational part of me thinks there'll be this bunfight between all the sides above us and we'll be there sat in 18th letting the opportunity to poke our heads above the surface slip week after week.
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Still gutted about not grabbing a point against Liverpool. Stoke win and Norwich win draw Sunderland draw Fulham should do it .......
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About time the thread title for this was changed. 35?! If feckin' only!
38 courtesy of two draws and two wins would sneak it for us. Another point, ideally from 3 wins would be nicer.
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How about, 'How many points will keep us up?'
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How about, 'How many points will keep us up?'
Yep. Would be more appropiate now.
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38 in my view. Can Sunderland get to 38 with their fixtures?
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If Di Canio can get the best out of the players then they will stay up IMO.
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39 needed due to our goal difference IMO.
2 wins and 3 draws and all is good with the world.
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If Di Canio can get the best out of the players then they will stay up IMO.
Really? There squad looks very average to me...if that.
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If Di Canio can get the best out of the players then they will stay up IMO.
Although you would usually expect the arrival of a new manager to give them a lift, the combination of the tough fixtures and the controversy surrounding Di Canio might take that away from them. And if it does, they're fucked!
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Looking at his quotes today it seems he is looking to play an adventurous style - Not the time of season to change your way of play - by the time they get used to it it could be all over.
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Have they got the players to be attacking?
Without Fletcher, where do the goals come from?
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Have they got the players to be attacking?
Without Fletcher, where do the goals come from?
No I don't think they have , might do ok next season after bringing in his own players but with the current side i can't see it .
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I'm going to place a bet on Sunderland getting at least a point at Chelsea on Saturday. The way this season's going and Chelsea's seeming intent to relegate us at every opportunity, it's like buying money.
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Looking at his quotes today it seems he is looking to play an adventurous style - Not the time of season to change your way of play - by the time they get used to it it could be all over.
When John Gregory arrived in February 1998 he got us attacking straight away and results picked up. We sometimes forget these are professional footballers. They are quite capable of change. We just have to hope you are right.
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Looking at his quotes today it seems he is looking to play an adventurous style - Not the time of season to change your way of play - by the time they get used to it it could be all over.
When John Gregory arrived in February 1998 he got us attacking straight away and results picked up. We sometimes forget these are professional footballers. They are quite capable of change. We just have to hope you are right.
We had the likes of yorke and collymore , they have danny graham!
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Looking at his quotes today it seems he is looking to play an adventurous style - Not the time of season to change your way of play - by the time they get used to it it could be all over.
When John Gregory arrived in February 1998 he got us attacking straight away and results picked up. We sometimes forget these are professional footballers. They are quite capable of change. We just have to hope you are right.
I get what you're saying, but in 1998 Gregory inherited a much better set of players than Di Canio has.
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I cannot see Sunderland having enough to break down Chelsea.
They way Rafa is going, it is likely we will see Ba and Mata/Oscar/Hazard playing on Saturday, with the Spanish Balaban on Thursday instead.
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Looking at his quotes today it seems he is looking to play an adventurous style - Not the time of season to change your way of play - by the time they get used to it it could be all over.
When John Gregory arrived in February 1998 he got us attacking straight away and results picked up. We sometimes forget these are professional footballers. They are quite capable of change. We just have to hope you are right.
We had the likes of yorke and collymore , they have danny graham!
collymore hardly played, but we did have Savo and Joachim in addition to Yorke. Even Joachim scored more than Graham.
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Looking at his quotes today it seems he is looking to play an adventurous style - Not the time of season to change your way of play - by the time they get used to it it could be all over.
When John Gregory arrived in February 1998 he got us attacking straight away and results picked up. We sometimes forget these are professional footballers. They are quite capable of change. We just have to hope you are right.
We had the likes of yorke and collymore , they have danny graham!
collymore hardly played, but we did have Savo and Joachim in addition to Yorke. Even Joachim scored more than Graham.
True but what a reaction he got from collymore in his first game as manager.
Sunderland havent got the fire power to play attacking football.
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If Di Canio can get the best out of the players then they will stay up IMO.
Really? There squad looks very average to me...if that.
Average yes. In the sense that there are no real stand-out players (other then the Goalkeeper) but still good enough (on paper at least) to survive the drop.
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Have they got the players to be attacking?
Without Fletcher, where do the goals come from?
Connor Wickham perhaps? About time someone gave him a chance. God knows best why MON didn't rate him.
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No. bearing in mind its generally accepted that reading and qpr are down, we are now hot favourites for the drop. Ive read articles from two pundits tipping us for the drop (Neither were Robbie Savage).
The bookies very rarely get it wrong. For the last couple of weeks and up to half time against pool ive started to believe again but im getting a striking suspicion that my claret and blue tinted specs are stopping me seeing clearly. Maybe we only got a couple of standard victories against cannon fodder. Maybe were not as good as we hope we are and maybe those above us are playing better than im seeing. H&V usually calms the nerves because there are loads of people on here saying what I hope is true - that we will get out of this. But im starting to think the majority on here are blinded by the claret and blue as well.
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No. bearing in mind its generally accepted that reading and qpr are down, we are now hot favourites for the drop. Ive read articles from two pundits tipping us for the drop (Neither were Robbie Savage).
The bookies very rarely get it wrong. For the last couple of weeks and up to half time against pool ive started to believe again but im getting a striking suspicion that my claret and blue tinted specs are stopping me seeing clearly. Maybe we only got a couple of standard victories against cannon fodder. Maybe were not as good as we hope we are and maybe those above us are playing better than im seeing. H&V usually calms the nerves because there are loads of people on here saying what I hope is true - that we will get out of this. But im starting to think the majority on here are blinded by the claret and blue as well.
Me may be slight favourites for the drop but not hot favourites.
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Southampton 20/1
Stoke 16/1
Norwich 10/1
Newcastle 12/1
Sunderland 7/4
Wigan 9/4
Villa 6/4
Granted not hot favourites but hot when taken in comparison to the 7 teams touted as being in the mix. They are essentially saying its between us, Wigan and Sunderland which is hard to argue with and like I say, the bookies dont often get it wrong. When I look at it like that, I see one team bang in form who are experienced in getting out of this situation who i fancy to pull clear. That leaves us and Sunderland.
I cant see us getting any surprise points to be completely honest, I think we can all reasonably predict what our final total will be. So looking at it that way, our fate will be decided by an Italian, Facist nutjob and his ability to motivate a talented, decent squad into playing for their futures.
I knew we were taking a gamble with our club policy but wasnt expecting this much of a gamble....
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Talented decent squad?
2 DF Phil Bardsley
3 DF Danny Rose (on loan from Tottenham)
4 MF Alfred N'Diaye
5 DF Wes Brown
6 MF Lee Cattermole (captain)
7 MF Sebastian Larsson
8 MF Craig Gardner
9 FW Danny Graham
10 FW Connor Wickham
12 DF Matthew Kilgallon
14 MF Jack Colback
15 MF David Vaughan
16 DF John O'Shea (vice-captain)
18 DF Kader Mangane (on loan from Al-Hilal)
19 DF Titus Bramble
20 GK Keiren Westwood
21 MF Adam Johnson
22 GK Simon Mignolet
23 MF James McClean
24 DF Carlos Cuéllar
26 FW Steven Fletcher
28 MF Stéphane Sessègnon
30 FW Mikael Mandron
33 FW Ryan Noble
42 DF John Egan
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We are 6/5 at Ladbrokes now, behind Sunderland at 15/8. It would be interesting to see the the volume and value of the bets which have been placed.
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I'm hearing on the grapevine that Sunderland will be fielding 11 right wingers on Saturday
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Southampton 20/1
Stoke 16/1
Norwich 10/1
Newcastle 12/1
Sunderland 7/4
Wigan 9/4
Villa 6/4
Well, it's certianly true that bookies seem able to read the P'ship table and are offering odds in the order in which the table is currently assembled. Fair enough. There's four points between Villa and the top of that relegation guest-list.
The challenge is to look at the final games each team is going to play; and then factor in an 'allowance' for those teams with forward momentum (Wigan and Southampton).
Doing this would probably not result in the order you've shown above. I still think we'd be in a parlous position because of our goals difference and inabilty to close out games. But I think the odds would be much closer than here.
If I were a betting man, I'd have a flutter on Stoke and Norwich to be in the final-day struggle. Why?
Both are struggling to get points. Stoke have games against ManUre, QPR, Southampton (away, last game), Norwich, Sunderland and Tottenham.
Norwich have to play Swansea, Arsenal, Citeh, WBA and Reading (as well as us and Stoke).
It's tight as a duck's arse at the bottom of the table and this weekend's results may change everything; as will next weekend's ... and on!
It's a painful experience for all concerned.
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Having just done the BBC predictor thingy as objectively as possible (given the existence of claret / blue tinted galsses), I arrived with Sunderland taking the third slot on only 35 points; with us on 40 (at 13th!). More to do with my negative opinion of those clubs near the bottom than massive confidence in us.
Oh, were it that clear-cut and simple!
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Having just done the BBC predictor thingy as objectively as possible (given the existence of claret / blue tinted galsses), I arrived with Sunderland taking the third slot on only 35 points; with us on 40 (at 13th!). More to do with my negative opinion of those clubs near the bottom than massive confidence in us.
Oh, were it that clear-cut and simple!
That's the thing I can see us getting to a minimum of 37 points before we play Wigan. (And we should all remember that the Wigan game isn't lost yet, we all seem to have written it off, including me. In fact I hadn't factored the Wigan game into any of my forecasts, I wanted us safe before then as if it was simply a write off). I can't see Sunderland getting to that figure before the last day. And, in the worst case scenario, if it does come down to the last day we are only playing Wigan. Escapologists they might be but they are still only fucking Wigan and if we need a result there we can get it with a loud, packed away end behind us.
Obviously in an idea world we will go into that game on 40 points looking to get a win to put some respectability to our final points tally. I'm only saying it is a winnable game if it comes down to us or Sunderland on the last day.
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Southampton 20/1
Stoke 16/1
Norwich 10/1
Newcastle 12/1
Sunderland 7/4
Wigan 9/4
Villa 6/4
Granted not hot favourites but hot when taken in comparison to the 7 teams touted as being in the mix. They are essentially saying its between us, Wigan and Sunderland which is hard to argue with and like I say, the bookies dont often get it wrong. When I look at it like that, I see one team bang in form who are experienced in getting out of this situation who i fancy to pull clear. That leaves us and Sunderland.
I cant see us getting any surprise points to be completely honest, I think we can all reasonably predict what our final total will be. So looking at it that way, our fate will be decided by an Italian, Facist nutjob and his ability to motivate a talented, decent squad into playing for their futures.
I knew we were taking a gamble with our club policy but wasnt expecting this much of a gamble....
Do you mean bang in form wigan who have 10 points from the last 6 as opposed to our terrible return of 9 in 6?
There last 6:
v Southampton (H) 2 - 2
v Chelsea (A) 4 - 1
v Reading (A) 0 - 3
v Liverpool (H) 0 - 4
v Newcastle (H) 2 - 1
v Norwich (H) 1 - 0
Our last 6:
v West Ham (H) 2 - 1
v Arsenal (A) 2 - 1
v Man City (H) 0 - 1
v Reading (A) 1 - 2
v QPR (H) 3 - 2
v Liverpool (H) 1 - 2
I'd argue we've had a much tougher set of games and not been much behind them in terms of points, on top of that we've been within a goal of all 3 defeats so not much damage compared to a couple of big beatings for them.
I just don't get why so many people are willing to ignore our own decent form but laud similar form from other sides. There's been similar ignoring of other sides poor form (Norwich and Stoke have been piss poor in 2013).
QPR and Reading are gone, they'd both need to get 5 wins in 7 to stand a chance and there is no way that's happening. Therefore you have 7 teams with a spread of 4 points between them playing for the last spot. Southampton look like they're doing enough to pull clear so it's down to 6. Stoke, Newcastle, Norwich and Sunderland are 4 of the bottom 6 in the form table, we're comfortably midtable in it along with Wigan. Looking at the games to go we have a nicer run in than most in that we play 4 of the 5 teams we're battling with which means it's genuinely in our own hands, Sunderland for example have a terrible set of fixtures, and Stoke have a nasty set of home games to go with the worst away record in the league.
We're bookies favourites because we're in the spot currently and they're playing it safe, it doesn't really mean that much this late in the season.
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If the Wigan game were at home, then I'd have no doubt whatsoever that the team would choke. The fact it is away gives me some hope that we can get some sort of result.
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Having just done the BBC predictor thingy as objectively as possible (given the existence of claret / blue tinted galsses), I arrived with Sunderland taking the third slot on only 35 points; with us on 40 (at 13th!). More to do with my negative opinion of those clubs near the bottom than massive confidence in us.
Oh, were it that clear-cut and simple!
That's the thing I can see us getting to a minimum of 37 points before we play Wigan. (And we should all remember that the Wigan game isn't lost yet, we all seem to have written it off, including me. In fact I hadn't factored the Wigan game into any of my forecasts, I wanted us safe before then as if it was simply a write off). I can't see Sunderland getting to that figure before the last day. And, in the worst case scenario, if it does come down to the last day we are only playing Wigan. Escapologists they might be but they are still only fucking Wigan and if we need a result there we can get it with a loud, packed away end behind us.
Obviously in an idea world we will go into that game on 40 points looking to get a win to put some respectability to our final points tally. I'm only saying it is a winnable game if it comes down to us or Sunderland on the last day.
One scenario that I haven't seen mentioned yet is if we go into the Wigan game with us both needing a point to see us save and thereby relegate Sunderland............
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...We're bookies favourites because we're in the spot currently and they're playing it safe, it doesn't really mean that much this late in the season.
I think you've said much more clearly, Paul, what I was trying to say in an earlier post!
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Having just done the BBC predictor thingy as objectively as possible (given the existence of claret / blue tinted galsses), I arrived with Sunderland taking the third slot on only 35 points; with us on 40 (at 13th!). More to do with my negative opinion of those clubs near the bottom than massive confidence in us.
Oh, were it that clear-cut and simple!
That's the thing I can see us getting to a minimum of 37 points before we play Wigan. (And we should all remember that the Wigan game isn't lost yet, we all seem to have written it off, including me. In fact I hadn't factored the Wigan game into any of my forecasts, I wanted us safe before then as if it was simply a write off). I can't see Sunderland getting to that figure before the last day. And, in the worst case scenario, if it does come down to the last day we are only playing Wigan. Escapologists they might be but they are still only fucking Wigan and if we need a result there we can get it with a loud, packed away end behind us.
Obviously in an idea world we will go into that game on 40 points looking to get a win to put some respectability to our final points tally. I'm only saying it is a winnable game if it comes down to us or Sunderland on the last day.
One scenario that I haven't seen mentioned yet is if we go into the Wigan game with us both needing a point to see us save and thereby relegate Sunderland............
I'd be quite happy for us to pass it around our own half for 90 minutes. I'm sure Roberto Martinez would concur!
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Having just done the BBC predictor thingy as objectively as possible (given the existence of claret / blue tinted galsses), I arrived with Sunderland taking the third slot on only 35 points; with us on 40 (at 13th!). More to do with my negative opinion of those clubs near the bottom than massive confidence in us.
Oh, were it that clear-cut and simple!
That's the thing I can see us getting to a minimum of 37 points before we play Wigan. (And we should all remember that the Wigan game isn't lost yet, we all seem to have written it off, including me. In fact I hadn't factored the Wigan game into any of my forecasts, I wanted us safe before then as if it was simply a write off). I can't see Sunderland getting to that figure before the last day. And, in the worst case scenario, if it does come down to the last day we are only playing Wigan. Escapologists they might be but they are still only fucking Wigan and if we need a result there we can get it with a loud, packed away end behind us.
Obviously in an idea world we will go into that game on 40 points looking to get a win to put some respectability to our final points tally. I'm only saying it is a winnable game if it comes down to us or Sunderland on the last day.
One scenario that I haven't seen mentioned yet is if we go into the Wigan game with us both needing a point to see us save and thereby relegate Sunderland............
I'd be quite happy for us to pass it around our own half for 90 minutes. I'm sure Roberto Martinez would concur!
Yes until the last minute and the bastards would probably score - i wouldn't trust that situation at all and it wouldn't happen like that for 90 minutes.
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Didn't the Danes and the Swedes play out a sterile 0-0 in the World Cup/Euros once when both needed a point to get out of the group?
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We should win 3 games before wigan and go there breathing easily.
Sunderland suffered the fate in 1977 when coventry and Bristol city both stayed up with a draw ans sent sunderland down- the teams were passing the ball to each other in a carnival like atmosphere the last 10 minutes .
I was at the game and it was quite surreal- sunderland fans still talk about it today and it caused a huge stink at the time.
I believe jimmy hill paid coventry's fine as it was at his request that the Sunderland result was flashed on the scoreboard and coventry's game was held up due to crowd congestion meaning they were 20 mins behind.
Once they knew sunderland had lost both teams kept the ball in the middle area of the pitch.
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Looking at his quotes today it seems he is looking to play an adventurous style - Not the time of season to change your way of play - by the time they get used to it it could be all over.
When John Gregory arrived in February 1998 he got us attacking straight away and results picked up. We sometimes forget these are professional footballers. They are quite capable of change. We just have to hope you are right.
We had the likes of yorke and collymore , they have danny graham!
collymore hardly played, but we did have Savo and Joachim in addition to Yorke. Even Joachim scored more than Graham.
Digression from the thread but while we're discussing such an optimistic, exciting time down the Villa (15 shaggin' years...where does it go?):
Lil'Lee had also broken through and probably showed the best form of his career in those few months. We won 9 out of our last 11 league games including winning 5 on the bounce and 4 consecutive away wins (I doubt we've beaten either stat in the 15 years since). Ironically the only blemishes were home defeats to two teams who went on to be relegated - Barnsley and Bolton. If I recall correctly we battered both of these but were undone by poor defending.
Spring '98 when Gregory took charge was the best footballing side we've had at Villa in all the years since then in my estimation. The balance in the side that had eluded Sir Brian was suddenly there. Instead of having to shoehorn in Collymore, the likes of J Julian and Hendrie took the chance to make their mark.
Even the following season when we were top til January we'd lost a bit of the joie de vivre in our play from that spring, possibly because Yorke and Savo had departed and probably also because we had been playing with a lot of freedom with no real pressure at the end of '97/'98.
By spring 1999, just twelve months later following the gradual erosion of our attacking instinct and the beginning of Gregory's more negative tactics (despite the efforts of new signing Merson), we were well and truly found out and went through that horrific spell of seven defeats and three draws in ten games.
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Didn't the Danes and the Swedes play out a sterile 0-0 in the World Cup/Euros once when both needed a point to get out of the group?
Wasn't it a 2-2; the only scoreline that would just happen to put Italia out?
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Poll reset and amended.
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If only we could find that joie de vivre in our remaining games this season !
39 points will see us safe in my view.
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Poll reset and amended.
's a good'un.
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Looking at his quotes today it seems he is looking to play an adventurous style - Not the time of season to change your way of play - by the time they get used to it it could be all over.
When John Gregory arrived in February 1998 he got us attacking straight away and results picked up. We sometimes forget these are professional footballers. They are quite capable of change. We just have to hope you are right.
We had the likes of yorke and collymore , they have danny graham!
collymore hardly played, but we did have Savo and Joachim in addition to Yorke. Even Joachim scored more than Graham.
Digression from the thread but while we're discussing such an optimistic, exciting time down the Villa (15 shaggin' years...where does it go?):
Lil'Lee had also broken through and probably showed the best form of his career in those few months. We won 9 out of our last 11 league games including winning 5 on the bounce and 4 consecutive away wins (I doubt we've beaten either stat in the 15 years since). Ironically the only blemishes were home defeats to two teams who went on to be relegated - Barnsley and Bolton. If I recall correctly we battered both of these but were undone by poor defending.
Spring '98 when Gregory took charge was the best footballing side we've had at Villa in all the years since then in my estimation. The balance in the side that had eluded Sir Brian was suddenly there. Instead of having to shoehorn in Collymore, the likes of J Julian and Hendrie took the chance to make their mark.
Even the following season when we were top til January we'd lost a bit of the joie de vivre in our play from that spring, possibly because Yorke and Savo had departed and probably also because we had been playing with a lot of freedom with no real pressure at the end of '97/'98.
By spring 1999, just twelve months later following the gradual erosion of our attacking instinct and the beginning of Gregory's more negative tactics (despite the efforts of new signing Merson), we were well and truly found out and went through that horrific spell of seven defeats and three draws in ten games.
The end of the season after Gregory had come in was phenomenal. One loss in how many, and it was to Barnsley at home! Absolutely freezing that night too.
I'm hoping that the Liverpool game was our Barnsley, just a case of a confident team getting a reality-check.
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Was tempted to go for 39 points but I have felt for a while that a good old McLeish-esque (draw every game) 38 points would just about be enough.
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Didn't the Danes and the Swedes play out a sterile 0-0 in the World Cup/Euros once when both needed a point to get out of the group?
Wasn't it a 2-2; the only scoreline that would just happen to put Italia out?
It was. There was also a banner in the crowd which read '2-2. The Pizzas are out'. Which amused me highly.
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I actually think given the form of some of the teams around us, we may have to hit 40 points. In part that's because of our poor goal difference. Because of that I think we need an extra point.
I can see Soton hitting 40. I can see Wigan getting another 9-10 points.
Sunderland could go either way. PDC might inspire them or he may be a complete train wreck. He's one of those where I'd sooner bet on them getting 0 points or 21 from their remaining 7 games than something like 5-10 points.
We shall see. I would fancy the 18th place team to be around the 37-40 mark.
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10 points from 7 games should be manageable.
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10 points from 7 games should be manageable.
I agree. We've been pretty awful for most of the season and that ratio isn't far off where we've been all season.
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10 points from 7 games should be manageable.
Two wins from and two draws from the games against Fulham, Sunderland, Norwich and Wigan would be 38. That will be enough. Just..
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I think 39 points will make us completely safe but I can't see Sunderland ending up on more than 36, so we may need less. So 39 points in our own hands, less depending on how others fare
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39 should do it. Two wins and two draws needed from the Stoke / Fulham / Norwich / Sunderland games, and then a draw up at Wigan
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10 points from 7 games should be manageable.
Given that we are currently averaging less then a point a game, I wouldn't bet on it. Games like Fulham/Sunderland at home are the type of game we have been screwing up all season. I'd like to think we can get the 2 wins and 2/3 draws which will probably be enough. But I very much doubt that we will finish the season on 40 points or more.
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We won't get 39 points. I think we'll be lucky to get 37 and it will definitely go to the last game.
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Didn't the Danes and the Swedes play out a sterile 0-0 in the World Cup/Euros once when both needed a point to get out of the group?
Wasn't it a 2-2; the only scoreline that would just happen to put Italia out?
Correct. I was at that game (Euro 2004 in Porto) and can honestly say it was just an incredible coincidence that it ended 2-2, and certainly wasn't fixed. Both teams were really going for it and there were loads off missed chances plus Sorenson made 2 world class saves in the last 10 minutes. Incidentally, 4 Villa players were involved.
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38 - I reckon we'll bag two wins and two draws and that should see us through, just.
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There are times when a certain scoreline will see both teams through and that score happens. I seem to remember England drawing 0-0 in Ireland years ago that saw both get the result they wanted but they were going for it.
The one was the Germany v Austria game in the World Cup. It couldn't have been more obvious if both teams celebrated the goal and then all sat down and played cards together for the last 80 minutes.
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10 points from 7 games should be manageable.
Given that we are currently averaging less then a point a game, I wouldn't bet on it.
There's the rub: we are expecting the team to do somewhat better than during the rest of the season.
In one sense, this is self-delusional. However, one would expect the team to haver improved over the course of the season (which I think it has) and the fixtures are favourable.
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10 points from 7 games should be manageable.
Given that we are currently averaging less then a point a game, I wouldn't bet on it. Games like Fulham/Sunderland at home are the type of game we have been screwing up all season. I'd like to think we can get the 2 wins and 2/3 draws which will probably be enough. But I very much doubt that we will finish the season on 40 points or more.
Well I wouldn't bet on it either, but it should still be realistic. We're playing better now than at any stage of the season(I know not a great leap) but with the games we have it's possible.
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Two of us have both independantly done the bbc predictor and come up with 38 and 39 points, the difference being a win/draw at wigan. Either way, we both had our victories coming against sunderland and Fulham, I had sunderland down on 34 points.
I think that whatever happens, our chances of survival hinge on those 2 games, anything less than 6points and the odds are stacked massively against us. I have everyone from stoke down to sunderland seperated by 3points - the margins for error now are looking so small.......
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10 points from 7 games should be manageable.
Two wins from and two draws from the games against Fulham, Sunderland, Norwich and Wigan would be 38. That will be enough. Just..
I'm not sure 38 will be enough looking at the current position, I think we need 40.
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Two of us have both independantly done the bbc predictor and come up with 38 and 39 points, the difference being a win/draw at wigan. Either way, we both had our victories coming against sunderland and Fulham, I had sunderland down on 34 points.
I think that whatever happens, our chances of survival hinge on those 2 games, anything less than 6points and the odds are stacked massively against us. I have everyone from stoke down to sunderland seperated by 3points - the margins for error now are looking so small.......
I had 5 teams finish on 38 matt but I was a bit harsh regarding our results - think it will be a close run thing but I'm hoping we can put a run together starting at stoke .
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10 points from 7 games should be manageable.
Given that we are currently averaging less then a point a game, I wouldn't bet on it. Games like Fulham/Sunderland at home are the type of game we have been screwing up all season. I'd like to think we can get the 2 wins and 2/3 draws which will probably be enough. But I very much doubt that we will finish the season on 40 points or more.
The problem with this is that the points per game changes to suit the argument you're making.
Over the season we have a ppg of .97 (30 from 31) but in the last 6 matches it's 1.5 (9 from 6) and in 2013 it's 1.09 (12 from 11).
Which of those 3 is more valuable? The season sees us finish on 37, 2013 on 38-39 and current form on 40-41. So there's statistical backing to logically predict any of those meaning it's fairly safe to suggest we're going to finish on something between 37 to 41 points (if you could get odds on final points the odds above and below those values would be much longer).
Given that range the sensible betting is to go for 39, which means 3 wins in 7 (or 2 wins and 3 draws). Looking at the fixtures that looks plausible as well.
Personally I think 39 will be enough as I think at least 1 of the 6/7 involved will get less than that, but I'd like to see a couple of 3-4 goal victories to even out the goal difference still.
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Fair point paul_e. I suppose we do have 10 points in our last 7 (since Everton) so no reason why we can't replicate it over the next 7. I am just very skeptical that Villa will do it in the easier and more predicable way.
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I think we need 39. I am looking, like most others are too, at the Fulham and Sunderland games as must win. Seeing as I don't think we will get anything from United or Chelsea that would either mean three draws against Stoke, Norwich and Wigan or winning one of them. Getting an 'early win' against Stoke before it is really do or die time would be massive.
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I've had a rethink of my original post and now think 38 points is a more realistic figure now.
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I've just done that bbc predictor and had us relegated on 38 points although I did have us to lose to Wigan on the last day, god that game is going to be massive
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41 I reckon
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10 points from 7 games should be manageable.
Given that we are currently averaging less then a point a game, I wouldn't bet on it. Games like Fulham/Sunderland at home are the type of game we have been screwing up all season. I'd like to think we can get the 2 wins and 2/3 draws which will probably be enough. But I very much doubt that we will finish the season on 40 points or more.
The problem with this is that the points per game changes to suit the argument you're making.
Over the season we have a ppg of .97 (30 from 31) but in the last 6 matches it's 1.5 (9 from 6) and in 2013 it's 1.09 (12 from 11).
Which of those 3 is more valuable? The season sees us finish on 37, 2013 on 38-39 and current form on 40-41. So there's statistical backing to logically predict any of those meaning it's fairly safe to suggest we're going to finish on something between 37 to 41 points (if you could get odds on final points the odds above and below those values would be much longer).
Given that range the sensible betting is to go for 39, which means 3 wins in 7 (or 2 wins and 3 draws). Looking at the fixtures that looks plausible as well.
Personally I think 39 will be enough as I think at least 1 of the 6/7 involved will get less than that, but I'd like to see a couple of 3-4 goal victories to even out the goal difference still.
Unfortunately, we don't play QPR or Reading again -and we made hard work of beating them. In fact, all our games against the two worst sides in the division could have gone either way.
I genuinely can't call it. I don't think we're gone, but to constantly need 2/3 goals to get anything from games is too much to ask over the course of a season. Lessons don't seem to be learned in that regard, so I fear for us.
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I think we need 40. Winning 3 of the 5 winables and getting a draw in the others. I think we will draw 3, win 2 and lose 2, leaving us on 39 and in the lap of the gods with goal difference relegating us. That is what I think will happen.
Stoke tomorrow is massive. Win it, we give ourselves a great shot of getting 2 more from Wigan, Norwich, Fulham, Sunderland and Chelsea, where we could sneak a revenge win.
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I still feel 39 will see us save.
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39 could well be enough, depending on who the points are against (ie ideally 3 against Sunderland)
I can't remember the last time I was this nervous before a league game. I don't know how I'll cope when we play Sunderland.
If Clark is out, we do lack a bit in terms of height. Only really Vlaar, Baker and Benteke. That could make the case for Sylla startng. I can't see us starting Bowery purely for that reason though. Gabby, Lowton and Bennett are gonna have to man up!
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Shitting it today, mainly because all the fans of other clubs think Benteke and Weimann will see us safe.
I hope NZogbia comes in today. He has had blinders at the Britania for Wigan before, and we are in NZogbia time as far as survival goes.
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I think CNZ has a big role to play. But also as an impact substitute.
We should be able to compete with Delph and Westwood in the middle against Stoke. They don't exactly move the ball quickly. But there is a risk of being outmuscled.
Would he play Sylla and Westwood with N'Zogbia behind Benteke?