How many points will keep us up?

[supertom]

I actually think given the form of some of the teams around us, we may have to hit 40 points. In part that's because of our poor goal difference. Because of that I think we need an extra point.
I can see Soton hitting 40. I can see Wigan getting another 9-10 points.
Sunderland could go either way. PDC might inspire them or he may be a complete train wreck. He's one of those where I'd sooner bet on them getting 0 points or 21 from their remaining 7 games than something like 5-10 points.
We shall see. I would fancy the 18th place team to be around the 37-40 mark.

[PaulWinch again]

10 points from 7 games should be manageable.

[Dave]

10 points from 7 games should be manageable.

I agree. We've been pretty awful for most of the season and that ratio isn't far off where we've been all season.

[Californian Villain]

10 points from 7 games should be manageable.

Two wins from and two draws from the games against Fulham, Sunderland, Norwich and Wigan would be 38. That will be enough. Just..

[CJ]

I think 39 points will make us completely safe but I can't see Sunderland ending up on more than 36, so we may need less. So 39 points in our own hands, less depending on how others fare

[Matt Collins]

39 should do it. Two wins and two draws needed from the Stoke / Fulham / Norwich / Sunderland games, and then a draw up at Wigan

[neo_Villan]

10 points from 7 games should be manageable.

Given that we are currently averaging less then a point a game, I wouldn't bet on it. Games like Fulham/Sunderland at home are the type of game we have been screwing up all season. I'd like to think we can get the 2 wins and 2/3 draws which will probably be enough. But I very much doubt that we will finish the season on 40 points or more.

[Des Little]

We won't get 39 points. I think we'll be lucky to get 37 and it will definitely go to the last game.

[Marlon From Bearwood]

Didn't the Danes and the Swedes play out a sterile 0-0 in the World Cup/Euros once when both needed a point to get out of the group?

Wasn't it a 2-2; the only scoreline that would just happen to put Italia out?

Correct. I was at that game (Euro 2004 in Porto) and can honestly say it was just an incredible coincidence that it ended 2-2, and certainly wasn't fixed. Both teams were really going for it and there were loads off missed chances plus Sorenson made 2 world class saves in the last 10 minutes. Incidentally, 4 Villa players were involved.

[Matt C]

38 - I reckon we'll bag two wins and two draws and that should see us through, just.

[PeterWithesShin]

There are times when a certain scoreline will see both teams through and that score happens. I seem to remember England drawing 0-0 in Ireland years ago that saw both get the result they wanted but they were going for it.

The one was the Germany v Austria game in the World Cup. It couldn't have been more obvious if both teams celebrated the goal and then all sat down and played cards together for the last 80 minutes.

[Mister E]

10 points from 7 games should be manageable.

Given that we are currently averaging less then a point a game, I wouldn't bet on it.

There's the rub: we are expecting the team to do somewhat better than during the rest of the season.
In one sense, this is self-delusional. However, one would expect the team to haver improved over the course of the season (which I think it has) and the fixtures are favourable.

[PaulWinch again]

10 points from 7 games should be manageable.

Given that we are currently averaging less then a point a game, I wouldn't bet on it. Games like Fulham/Sunderland at home are the type of game we have been screwing up all season. I'd like to think we can get the 2 wins and 2/3 draws which will probably be enough. But I very much doubt that we will finish the season on 40 points or more.

Well I wouldn't bet on it either, but it should still be realistic. We're playing better now than at any stage of the season(I know not a great leap) but with the games we have it's possible.

[mattjpa]

Two of us have both independantly done the bbc predictor and come up with 38 and 39 points, the difference being a win/draw at wigan. Either way, we both had our victories coming against sunderland and Fulham, I had sunderland down on 34 points.
I think that whatever happens, our chances of survival hinge on those 2 games, anything less than 6points and the odds are stacked massively against us. I have everyone from stoke down to sunderland seperated by 3points - the margins for error now are looking so small.......

[PaulWinch again]

10 points from 7 games should be manageable.

Two wins from and two draws from the games against Fulham, Sunderland, Norwich and Wigan would be 38. That will be enough. Just..

I'm not sure 38 will be enough looking at the current position, I think we need 40.