Two of us have both independantly done the bbc predictor and come up with 38 and 39 points, the difference being a win/draw at wigan. Either way, we both had our victories coming against sunderland and Fulham, I had sunderland down on 34 points. I think that whatever happens, our chances of survival hinge on those 2 games, anything less than 6points and the odds are stacked massively against us. I have everyone from stoke down to sunderland seperated by 3points - the margins for error now are looking so small.......
Quote from: PaulWinch again on April 04, 2013, 06:45:56 PM10 points from 7 games should be manageable. Given that we are currently averaging less then a point a game, I wouldn't bet on it. Games like Fulham/Sunderland at home are the type of game we have been screwing up all season. I'd like to think we can get the 2 wins and 2/3 draws which will probably be enough. But I very much doubt that we will finish the season on 40 points or more.
10 points from 7 games should be manageable.
Quote from: neo_Villan on April 04, 2013, 09:06:41 PMQuote from: PaulWinch again on April 04, 2013, 06:45:56 PM10 points from 7 games should be manageable. Given that we are currently averaging less then a point a game, I wouldn't bet on it. Games like Fulham/Sunderland at home are the type of game we have been screwing up all season. I'd like to think we can get the 2 wins and 2/3 draws which will probably be enough. But I very much doubt that we will finish the season on 40 points or more.The problem with this is that the points per game changes to suit the argument you're making.Over the season we have a ppg of .97 (30 from 31) but in the last 6 matches it's 1.5 (9 from 6) and in 2013 it's 1.09 (12 from 11).Which of those 3 is more valuable? The season sees us finish on 37, 2013 on 38-39 and current form on 40-41. So there's statistical backing to logically predict any of those meaning it's fairly safe to suggest we're going to finish on something between 37 to 41 points (if you could get odds on final points the odds above and below those values would be much longer).Given that range the sensible betting is to go for 39, which means 3 wins in 7 (or 2 wins and 3 draws). Looking at the fixtures that looks plausible as well.Personally I think 39 will be enough as I think at least 1 of the 6/7 involved will get less than that, but I'd like to see a couple of 3-4 goal victories to even out the goal difference still.