Summer 26 Transfer Window - hopes, speculation, rumours etc.

[OCD]

If that's right we'd be saving £5m a year on wages between Digne and him.

I suspect we'll have a similar saving in the Tielemans <> Gomes situation and we've already dropped some big wages for Dougie, Sancho and Elliott. All In I reckon Those swaps and the end of the loans will have freed up £30m in the accounts. We already got ~£3m from the Malen <> Abraham swap as well (which matters for SCR as it's on calendar year) so there's plenty of headroom in for SCR. Manzambi will be about £15m on the books so we're going to have about the same again free. The cover player for Onana will largely be paid by FIFA compensation so that won't have an impact which means a RB on a 5year deal in the region of £75k p/w and a £15-20m fee would still see us reducing our overall costs and for the arrangement with Fifa the drop of £12m a year of the Onana fee opens up a lot of options, especially if we can cover him with someone on a lower wage.

TL;DR version.

If all the current incomings and outgoings happen as expected we'll have the money for a DM on loan and decent young RB without needing any further sales.

Would have thought you would have pushed for Triston Rowe to be that decent young RB.

[SaddVillan]

Looking at who we're about to sign/heavily linked with:

Estupinan 94 EPL/Cup Euro 23 Caps 56

Palinha 117 EPL/Cup Euro 33 Caps 37

Gomes EPL/Cup 129 Euro 21 Caps 10

Royal EPL/Cup 90 Euro 26 Caps 10

Manzumbi EPL/Cup 0 Euro 15 Caps 16

With the obvious exception of Manzumbi, we're bringing in internationals with experience of the English game and,who have played in Europe

Smart work.

[PaulWinch again]

What is slbsn?

Obviously it's a Stefan Borson, I thought the L would of gave that away.

I wasn’t being snarky, it was a genuine question. I’m guessing he’s an FFP/SCR guru then?

[PaulWinch again]

What is slbsn?

He’s a football finance bloke.

Thanks.

[brontebilly]

Is Estupian any good? Like others I can remember the horror own goal at Villa Park when we hammered Brighton. Was he taken off before half time in that game with McGinn having a field day?

[paul_e]

If that's right we'd be saving £5m a year on wages between Digne and him.

I suspect we'll have a similar saving in the Tielemans <> Gomes situation and we've already dropped some big wages for Dougie, Sancho and Elliott. All In I reckon Those swaps and the end of the loans will have freed up £30m in the accounts. We already got ~£3m from the Malen <> Abraham swap as well (which matters for SCR as it's on calendar year) so there's plenty of headroom in for SCR. Manzambi will be about £15m on the books so we're going to have about the same again free. The cover player for Onana will largely be paid by FIFA compensation so that won't have an impact which means a RB on a 5year deal in the region of £75k p/w and a £15-20m fee would still see us reducing our overall costs and for the arrangement with Fifa the drop of £12m a year of the Onana fee opens up a lot of options, especially if we can cover him with someone on a lower wage.

TL;DR version.

If all the current incomings and outgoings happen as expected we'll have the money for a DM on loan and decent young RB without needing any further sales.

Would have thought you would have pushed for Triston Rowe to be that decent young RB.

I'd certainly give him a chance but I reckon he'll go on another loan first. Then when he's back and challenging it's about the time we'd be looking to move Cash on.

[Percy McCarthy]

What is slbsn?

He’s a football finance bloke.

Thanks.

He seems quite clued up to me.

Just my opinion here:

Borsen is quite focused on what he talks about, while Maguire seems to generalise quite a bit, which is why I prefer Borsen. Powell (the Reach sports business bloke) seems pretty good. Weatherspoon at The Athletic is okay. The best one, due to his focus on Villa, is Adam the CCO on YouTube & TikTok. Football writers are a waste of time on this stuff, as it’s not their speciality and most don’t seem to understand it. Football podcasters are beyond hopeless on finance.

[Dante Lavelli]

Historically I thought the Swiss Ramble was the best finance/football guy but he's been left behind because his analysis is now  behind a paywall. 

[Concrete Tom]

Historically I thought the Swiss Ramble was the best finance/football guy but he's been left behind because his analysis is now  behind a paywall.

It takes quite a bit of time and know how to understand accounting rules, football finance rules and go through club accounts with a fine tooth comb. It's not his full time job to do this. Fair play to him.

Maguire on the other hand seems to just enjoy it - and puts out a podcast for fun to cover costs. He makes his money from lecturing football finance.

[SaddVillan]

I can foresee a big season for Bailey and Guessand.

Elsewhere

[Dogtanian]

I can foresee a big season for Bailey and Guessand.

Elsewhere

Is there nothing to be said for dressing one of them up as Rogers, and the other one as Ezri Konsa?

[AV82EC]

Historically I thought the Swiss Ramble was the best finance/football guy but he's been left behind because his analysis is now  behind a paywall. 

He was, but his analysis, though extremely thorough and fair, was always after the fact, I felt he never gave much more insight than some of the accountants on here. The issue as I see it is he's been overtaken by people who are willing to "Forecast" what they think may be going on as Percy alludes to.

My issue with the Borson thing above is his opinions around our FY 2026 UEFA SCR, as we're still 6 months away from it, we have some major unknowns about to hit the accounts (CL participation, this summers transfer window) and whilst he may have some ballpark figures I'm sceptical. What has he baked into his estimates that mean he thinks we're going to miss our UEFA 26 targets by such a large margin? The fact he shows none of his "workings" makes me wary unless he has some inside track with UEFA or Calvo/the club.   

 

[Richard]

Surely having already lost Onana, Tielemans, Digne (presumably), we wouldn't go into a new season without Konsa and Rogers too?

That would be Thomas Tuchel levels of sabotage.

[Dogtanian]

 

[PeterWithesShin]

Or the replacements we're signing could be better than them and we'll be Champions.