Will we win the Premier League

[andyh]

I find the xG hate quite funny. It's fine in the medium to long term to show how generally (yes, you will get the odd anomaly) teams are doing.

The very fact that the premier league table based on XG puts us 15th in the league, proves it is utter bollocks.

The presenter on Sky for the live game the other night was getting quite upset that Villa were higher in the league that they should be based on XG.

It’s the same as our form being ‘unsustainable because we only score goals for outside the box’.
That rubbish was put to bed very quickly too.

[London Villan]

GAE is exactly the type of game we have regularly buggered up under Unai. A game we (the players) think should be easy, only to get caught out. We also have a habit of getting tactics wrong and receive a hiding. Newcastle, Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea have all done it to us.

To win the league, the champions don’t tend to lose more than 5 matches - that is a massive challenge from where we are this season.

[paul_e]

I find the xG hate quite funny. It's fine in the medium to long term to show how generally (yes, you will get the odd anomaly) teams are doing.

The problem is that it's not designed to be this catch-all stat that can be used to perfectly predict everything which some people have tried to make it. It's a probability analysis to determine the quality of chances you're creating and that's it.

It's a one statistic that is incredibly useful to data analysts at clubs to identify things coaches should work on, amongst a whole set that most fans will never see but twats with an OPTA premium account realised that this one maps reasonably well with league placings and therefore it was something they could abuse to make all kinds of points that it doesn't support.

For example:

The very fact that the premier league table based on XG puts us 15th in the league, proves it is utter bollocks.

This is clearly a complete misuse of data, it doesn't show that and was never meant to. I'd love to spend some time with the people that created it to see how much they fucking hate this bullshit.

[Villa Lew]

Before Saturday the bookies had us at 66/1 to win the PL, we're now 28/1, which is quite a jump. Arsenal are 4/6, Man City 7/4, Chelsea 25/1 and Liverpool 25/1, obviously someone has forgotten to put a zero at the end of that figure.

[Chip Butty 111]

Before Saturday the bookies had us at 66/1 to win the PL, we're now 28/1, which is quite a jump. Arsenal are 4/6, Man City 7/4, Chelsea 25/1 and Liverpool 25/1, obviously someone has forgotten to put a zero at the end of that figure.

If Arsenal do their regular bottle job and City are finally punished for the 115 charges, and relegated to the Kellogs Cornflakes League, 28/1 might look decent.

[PeterWithesShin]

This season we've lost 1 'easy' game.

Last season it was 2, maybe 3 if anyone thinks Monaco away is easy.

It really isn't a regular occurance. Especially as the only 'easy' league we've lost last season or this is Wolves away, even as bad as ManU were a trip to OT is never easy.

[N'ZMAV]

top 4 will be a tough achievement - the squad hasn't got the quality of the second half of last season.

Hopefully we can banish Elliot and Sancho in Jan and replace with quality.

We've been fortunate that Buendia and Bogarde have been useful.

[john e]

all this are we in a title race is a load of absolute bollocks because no one is at the stage of the season
We’re not even halfway through yet and that nob Gary Neville said last month it’s Arsenals title to lose, ffs he’s even played the game and he’s talking nonsense

if we’re in this position with 10 games to play then we or anyone else will then be in a title race
at the moment everyone is playing the games and positioning themselves for the end game but the end game is not in December for anyone yet

[PeterWithesShin]

It is a title race, and two thirds of the division are already out of it. This is all imo but everyone below 6th is already done when it comes to the title. I also dismiss ManU and Palace as unable to put the consistent run needed from now until 38. That leaves 4, and we're one of them.

[john e]

No one’s in a title race at the beginning of December
It’s just modern day media hyping bullshit

[paul_e]

Day 1 of the season everyone is in the title race and then the number of teams in it slowly reduces over the season.

[PeterWithesShin]

It's like saying the 10000m isn't a race as they're only at the 3000m mark. It is, there's already some out of contention by then but the stronger ones are still in a race for 1st.

[OCD]

Let's see where we are after the Man Utd/Arsenal/Chelsea fixtures.

[walsall villain]

Let's see where we are after the Man Utd/Arsenal/Chelsea fixtures.

…. and sodding Palace away

[PeterWithesShin]

I figure you need a minimum of 80 points to win, I think you need to go back to the 90s for the last time the PL Champs didn't hit at least 80. Plenty of times 80 isn't enough but that's the realistic minimum target to be a contender. So with 23 to go that's 69 points, Liverpool can do a max of 92. Are they only going to drop a max of 12 points in the last 23 games, nope imo so that's how I eliminate clubs. Look at the table and can a club still realistically hit at least 80 without a bonkers run, nope and you're out.

I only see 4 left that have the potential to hit 80.