Will we qualify for the CL?

[cdbearsfan]

Football Rankings on X reckon fifth place in the PL is certain to be awarded a CL spot.

He's also on Bluesky if you don't want to support Elon Musk/Jimmy Savile.

https://bsky.app/profile/footrankings.bsky.social/post/3mdlsjtxs2m2l

Hopefully this means PWS can stop being a weirdo when English clubs are playing.

[PeterWithesShin]

They are all so lovely though.

[Percy McCarthy]

Football Rankings on X reckon fifth place in the PL is certain to be awarded a CL spot.

He's also on Bluesky if you don't want to support Elon Musk/Jimmy Savile.

https://bsky.app/profile/footrankings.bsky.social/post/3mdlsjtxs2m2l

Hopefully this means PWS can stop being a weirdo when English clubs are playing.

Thanks cd.

[eye digress]

Winning all five might be tough, but if we can get 10 points from that lot, I'll be surprised if we're not still 10-ish points clear of 6th going into March, which would mean one of the teams below us having to make up at LEAST a point a game on us to overtake us and push us out of the top 5.  That would be some ask, given 2.2 points a game is title winning form.

It's been clear since late December that for us to be overhauled for 5th would require form far weaker than anything we've shown under Unai these past three years plus title winning form from at least three of ManU, Liverpool, Chelsea and the Jaudis.

In other words, it's barely conceivable that we wouldn't qualify for the Chump's league from here.

[Garyth]

I suspect half the problem is that people are extrapolating opinions without thinking about what they’re extrapolating them on.

xG is just a statistic - in th example you give, historically in similar circumstances 2% of shots end in goals. That’s just a fact. And it’s probably reasonable to assume that a team who outperforms their xG for a few games is getting lucky, and a team that underperforms is unlucky. But if it’s happening over a longer period of time, the less likely it is to be luck and the more likely it is that there’s another explanation (which could be any number of things and you’d actually have to properly look at the team rather than taking pot shots based on generalities)

100% Agree.

Additionally, we haven't (not that I know of) got an expectation yet that xG models will be updated as time and football trends change. From memory, in Cricket the data used to calculate rain delay targets and such is adjusted to better reflect how play has changed over years - more weight is given to recent matches to reflect more recent tactical trends.

I suspect that if teams like Villa keep out-scoring expected chances (and if Villa aren't just a single team/season anomaly), then xG models will (*should*) eventually adjust to better reflect that.

[paul_e]

I suspect it is already being discussed within Opta because they sell this data and if the accuracy and validity is being questioned that creates a risk.

[Meanwood Villa]

After Sunderland and Brentford flirting with the upper echelons, there's a familiar look to the top six now.

[Brazilian Villain]

Newcastle are gone, it's 5 from 6 now. Need 9+ points from our next 5 games to maintain the gap, and avoid defeat to Chelsea and Yanited in early March. That would put us in a decent position with key players coming back.

[PaulWinch again]

This is suddenly tightening up a bit. The last two home performances and results have been just awful.

[PeterWithesShin]

A bit less confident than I was 3 league games ago.

[saint13]

Going into the weekend I was very confident.

History tells us that 20 wins normally is enough get you into the CL. I think we will do that, but I think it will be very tight with our injuries and the resurgence of the chasing pack.

I think we will finish 5th.

[Steve67]

Likely to need top 5 again this season, so I understand.

[PhilVill]

By winning the Europa League, yes.

[curiousorange]

What are we, seven points ahead of sixth? Chasing that you might think it's a tall order. Defending it, after results like today and with the key injuries we have, and it feels like walking on a tightrope and seeing a hurricane on the horizon.

[PaulWinch again]

We’ve got a tricky away game and then Brighton at home - we really need 6 points from those.