Morgan Rogers

[paul_e]

but still  why do you think we'll take £30m less than the price we've pretty clearly set?

It's just a guess Paul.  I feel we are probably under more SCR pressure than people think, and the moves we have made/are planning to make are based on securing the Rogers money.  I also think he probably wants to go.  But I'm no expert on the financial regulations and I appreciate that people on here have made very well-reasoned arguments to the contrary.  Like I said, it's just fans chatting shit on the internet. I know no more than anyone else.

We'll see.  I won't gloat if I'm right and will be delighted if I'm wrong.

I get it, I think you're wrong on the bold bit. The only reasonably reliable data we have is from deliotte - https://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/services/consulting-financial/analysis/deloitte-football-money-league.html - and according to that our SCR position for 2025 was 71% against a 70% target. As per the post I've made in the transfer thread, as things stand (assuming Estupinan, Digne and Gomes all complete) we're about £15-20m a year better off than we were for 2025. There's a lot more to it but there's nothing to suggest we're so far off that we'd accept a haircut on our prized asset.

[chrisw1]

Hopefully not and yes there’s some good analysis on here, thanks.

[N'ZMAV]

the wagebill will be coming down - I doubt Manzambi is earning more than Sancho, or even Elliott

[Jon Crofts]

but still  why do you think we'll take £30m less than the price we've pretty clearly set?

Have we? Has Aston Villa set a price or have newspapers set a price?

[paul_e]

but still  why do you think we'll take £30m less than the price we've pretty clearly set?

Have we? Has Aston Villa set a price or have newspapers set a price?

Well the handful of Villa friendly reporters haven't pulled £130m from their arses have they.

[Ozzjim]

I can't see Villa taking a deal that doesn't clear £100m for us. So I think it will settle somewhere around £120m.

[Rigadon]

Arsenal want Rogers apparently. 

[ADVILLAFAN]

I think he'll go for Round 115-120M.

[Villatillidie25]

but still  why do you think we'll take £30m less than the price we've pretty clearly set?

It's just a guess Paul.  I feel we are probably under more SCR pressure than people think, and the moves we have made/are planning to make are based on securing the Rogers money.  I also think he probably wants to go.  But I'm no expert on the financial regulations and I appreciate that people on here have made very well-reasoned arguments to the contrary.  Like I said, it's just fans chatting shit on the internet. I know no more than anyone else.

We'll see.  I won't gloat if I'm right and will be delighted if I'm wrong.

I get it, I think you're wrong on the bold bit. The only reasonably reliable data we have is from deliotte - https://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/services/consulting-financial/analysis/deloitte-football-money-league.html - and according to that our SCR position for 2025 was 71% against a 70% target. As per the post I've made in the transfer thread, as things stand (assuming Estupinan, Digne and Gomes all complete) we're about £15-20m a year better off than we were for 2025. There's a lot more to it but there's nothing to suggest we're so far off that we'd accept a haircut on our prized asset.

Isn’t it a) the specific settlement agreement with uefa and b) the 3-year loss total that are the issues this year. Sadly I think those two mean at least one of MR or EZ will go.

[Dante Lavelli]

I think Konsa is more likely to be jettisoned for any PSR balancing.  Konsa only has two years left on his contract, so entering “re-sign or be sold” territory, whereas Rogers recently signed a new deal.  He’s also at an age where his price will start to drop.

[frank black]

I think Konsa is more likely to be jettisoned for any PSR balancing.  Konsa only has two years left on his contract, so entering “re-sign or be sold” territory, whereas Rogers recently signed a new deal.  He’s also at an age where his price will start to drop.

Can we afford a “transition “ season. Losing key players down the spine of the team is surely too risky. Unlike some teams, we really can’t afford a season without proper European football and the revenue it brings. The risk of selling more than 1 or 2 of our best players rules out us selling Konsa IMO.

[letsshakehands]

but still  why do you think we'll take £30m less than the price we've pretty clearly set?

It's just a guess Paul.  I feel we are probably under more SCR pressure than people think, and the moves we have made/are planning to make are based on securing the Rogers money.  I also think he probably wants to go.  But I'm no expert on the financial regulations and I appreciate that people on here have made very well-reasoned arguments to the contrary.  Like I said, it's just fans chatting shit on the internet. I know no more than anyone else.

We'll see.  I won't gloat if I'm right and will be delighted if I'm wrong.

I get it, I think you're wrong on the bold bit. The only reasonably reliable data we have is from deliotte - https://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/services/consulting-financial/analysis/deloitte-football-money-league.html - and according to that our SCR position for 2025 was 71% against a 70% target. As per the post I've made in the transfer thread, as things stand (assuming Estupinan, Digne and Gomes all complete) we're about £15-20m a year better off than we were for 2025. There's a lot more to it but there's nothing to suggest we're so far off that we'd accept a haircut on our prized asset.

We've obviously improved our finances considerably but the 71% figure in the Deloitte report is wages/revenue rather than everything that makes up SCR though (amortisation etc) isn't it? As mentioned above I think the settlement is the thing more likely to bite us this year.

[paul_e]

but still  why do you think we'll take £30m less than the price we've pretty clearly set?

It's just a guess Paul.  I feel we are probably under more SCR pressure than people think, and the moves we have made/are planning to make are based on securing the Rogers money.  I also think he probably wants to go.  But I'm no expert on the financial regulations and I appreciate that people on here have made very well-reasoned arguments to the contrary.  Like I said, it's just fans chatting shit on the internet. I know no more than anyone else.

We'll see.  I won't gloat if I'm right and will be delighted if I'm wrong.

I get it, I think you're wrong on the bold bit. The only reasonably reliable data we have is from deliotte - https://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/services/consulting-financial/analysis/deloitte-football-money-league.html - and according to that our SCR position for 2025 was 71% against a 70% target. As per the post I've made in the transfer thread, as things stand (assuming Estupinan, Digne and Gomes all complete) we're about £15-20m a year better off than we were for 2025. There's a lot more to it but there's nothing to suggest we're so far off that we'd accept a haircut on our prized asset.

Isn’t it a) the specific settlement agreement with uefa and b) the 3-year loss total that are the issues this year. Sadly I think those two mean at least one of MR or EZ will go.

The settlement agreement won't be a problem. It's that the value of the squad (so the SCR related costs) for the named 'a' list. We're losing Digne, Onana, Tielemans, Dougie, Garcia, Elliott and Sancho from that. Adding wages, incoming fees and 'lost' amortisation costs from that and we're looking at something like £60-65m as headroom for replacements, that gives us easily enough to make the signings we've completed/nearly completed and a couple more on top.

The 3year loss thing is there but is a smaller concern because 23/24 dropping off the list was a huge loss. We don't know exactly what the position is right now because what UEFA include and exclude from their calculations isn't clear but we weren't in breach of it in summer 25 or this summer so I don't see how it will suddenly become a problem next summer after 2 years of being very careful in our spending. Don't forget most of the 'tricks' around the womens team and selling the warehouse to ourselves are already excluded from the calculations so it's not as if they were propping us up and we're suddenly out of tricks to pull.

[Percy McCarthy]

but still  why do you think we'll take £30m less than the price we've pretty clearly set?

It's just a guess Paul.  I feel we are probably under more SCR pressure than people think, and the moves we have made/are planning to make are based on securing the Rogers money.  I also think he probably wants to go.  But I'm no expert on the financial regulations and I appreciate that people on here have made very well-reasoned arguments to the contrary.  Like I said, it's just fans chatting shit on the internet. I know no more than anyone else.

We'll see.  I won't gloat if I'm right and will be delighted if I'm wrong.

I get it, I think you're wrong on the bold bit. The only reasonably reliable data we have is from deliotte - https://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/services/consulting-financial/analysis/deloitte-football-money-league.html - and according to that our SCR position for 2025 was 71% against a 70% target. As per the post I've made in the transfer thread, as things stand (assuming Estupinan, Digne and Gomes all complete) we're about £15-20m a year better off than we were for 2025. There's a lot more to it but there's nothing to suggest we're so far off that we'd accept a haircut on our prized asset.

Isn’t it a) the specific settlement agreement with uefa and b) the 3-year loss total that are the issues this year. Sadly I think those two mean at least one of MR or EZ will go.

Adam the CCO reckons 71% is inaccurate because it’s not based on UEFA’s adjusted revenue measure (I think). His guess without knowing the agents fees (he guessed £15m lol - turns out it was £36m!) was 78%.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E0BKTMFyVtY&t=29s&pp=ygUYYWRhbSB0aGUgY2VvIGFzdG9uIHZpbGxh0gcJCZkLAYcqIYzv&ra=m